SPORTS ADVISORS
Jacksonville (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-4 SU and ATS)
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The slumping Jets look to get their season back on track when they welcome the Jaguars to the Meadowlands.
New York, coming off its bye, fell to Miami for the second time this year in a 30-25 setback two Sundays ago as a 3½-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games after a 3-0 SU and ATS start. The Jets still boast the NFL’s No. 1 rushing game, at a whopping 177.6 ypg, but the passing game is 27th (164.5 ypg). Defensively, New York is a solid second in total yards allowed (273.4 ypg) and fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg).
Jacksonville held off Kansas City 24-21 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a seven-point home chalk in suffering its fourth straight ATS setback. The Jags are averaging 361 ypg, good for ninth in the league, but they are scoring just 19.6 ppg, which stands 21st. Meanwhile, they are giving up 362 ypg (23rd) and 24.8 ppg (24th).
Jacksonville is on a 5-0 ATS tear (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 41-0 rout as a seven-point home favorite in October 2006, the most recent meeting.
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Along with their current 1-4 ATS slide, the Jets are stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 at home, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a home chalk, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-6 after a non-cover. However, they are on a 7-0 ATS tear following the bye week. The SU winner has also cashed in New York’s last 10 games. The Jaguars are on several negative ATS streaks, including 2-5 on the road, 3-8 against AFC opponents, 0-4 in November and 4-10 outside the AFC South.
The under is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 starts after the bye, but the over for the Jets is on stretches of 5-0-1 in November, 6-2 with New York a home favorite and 4-1 against the AFC. The over is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last seven overall and 7-2-2 in its last nine November outings, but the Jags are on “under” runs of 6-1 on the highway, 9-3 getting points and 7-1 as a road pup.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Denver (6-2 SU and ATS) at Washington (2-6 SU and ATS)
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The Broncos, aiming to rebound from a two-game skid, head to the East Coast for a non-conference contest with the dismal Redskins at FedEx Field.
Denver got drubbed Monday night by Pittsburgh 28-10 as a three-point home pup, losing and failing to cover in blowout fashion for the second straight week, following a 30-7 loss at Baltimore. The Broncos’ offense sits at 19th in total yards (331.8 ypg) and 22nd in scoring at just 18.8 ppg, totaling just 10 points the past two weeks as it failed to find the end zone. Denver is still third in both yards allowed (280.2 ypg) and points allowed (15.5 ppg), despite getting outscored 58-17 the past two weeks.
Washington lost to Atlanta 31-17 Sunday as a nine-point road ‘dog, its fourth consecutive SU defeat and third straight ATS setback. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points all season, averaging just 14.1 ppg (29th), hindered greatly by a minus-9 turnover margin, also 29th in the league. Washington will be without RB Clinton Portis this week (concussion).
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These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with Washington going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU). Most recently, Denver won 21-19 in October 2005, with the Redskins cashing as a seven-point road pup. Also, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
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Although the Broncos are 6-2 ATS this year and 6-3 ATS in their last nine roadies, they remain on a bundle of pointspread slides, including 6-20-1 as a chalk, 2-14 laying 3½ to 10 points, 3-13-1 against losing teams, 2-6 after a SU loss and 7-21 after a non-cover. The SU winner has covered in 11 straight for Denver. Like the Broncs, the Redskins are on ATS plunges of 3-11-2 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5-1 in November and 1-6 against winning teams, and Washington is on an 0-10-1 ATS nosedive against AFC opponents.
Denver is on “under” rolls of 7-1 overall, 7-1 laying points and 4-1 in November, though the over for the Broncs is 15-5-2 in their last 22 following a SU loss and 18-6-2 in their last 26 after a non-cover. The under for Washington is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 10-1 at FedEx, 5-1 in November, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-3-1 after a pointspread setback.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 3-5 ATS)
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The upstart Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in a battle for first place in the AFC North.
For the second time this year, Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore, notching a 17-7 home victory Sunday as a three-point ‘dog to win and cash for the second straight game. The Bengals have held six of their eight opponents this year to 20 points or less, and they stand fifth in the league in allowing just 16.9 ppg. Cincy’s offense is averaging 348.8 ypg (12th), paced by the ninth-best run game (130 ypg). RB Cedric Benson’s 837 rushing yards are good for second in the league.
Pittsburgh had a big second half Monday night in blowing out Denver 28-10 as a three-point road chalk for its fifth straight victory (3-2 ATS). The Steelers are fielding the NFL’s fifth-best offense (382 ypg) and are also fifth in passing (266.8 ypg) and 13th in scoring (24.4 ppg). Pittsburgh also has the No. 5 defense at 284.9 ypg and is yielding just 17.4 ppg (sixth).
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Cincinnati dropped Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home pup in September, ending a five-game SU and ATS roll by the Steelers in this rivalry. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS roll.
The Bengals are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-0 as a pup, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 4-1 inside the division and 17-7-1 in November. The Steelers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in the AFC North, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a SU win.
The under for Cincy is on stretches of 8-2 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the AFC and 23-9 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. On the flip side, the over Pittsburgh is on sprees of 48-21-2 at Heinz Field, 6-2 in division play, 16-6 in the AFC and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in three straight overall and six of the last seven in Pittsburgh.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee (2-6, 3-5 ATS)
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The Titans, riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak after starting out 0-6 (1-5 ATS), aim to make it three in a row when they take on the Bills at LP Field.
Tennessee, bolstered by a late INT return for a TD, beat San Francisco 34-27 as a 4½-point road underdog Sunday. After being held to 17 points or less in five of its first six games, including a 59-0 beatdown at New England three games ago, the Titans have put up 64 points over the past two weeks. The big difference has been star RB Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 959 rushing yards after putting up 491 yards and four TDs over the past three games. Tennessee now has the NFL’s second-best rushing attack, at 161 ypg.
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Buffalo took last week off after getting belted 31-10 at home by Houston as a 3½-point ‘dog, ending a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bills haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last six games, including five starts of 16 points or less, and they stand 28th in the NFL at 15.4 ppg on the year. Buffalo is averaging just 264.8 ypg (29th).
Tennessee is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six meaningful games between these two teams. Most recently, Tennessee squeaked out a 30-29 road victory as a 5½-point pup in December 2006. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six as a chalk and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a non-division home favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 in November, 12-4 coming off a SU win and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bills, meanwhile, are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 on the highway, 26-9-1 against losing teams and 5-2 as a non-division road pup, but they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine November starts.
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The under is on an 18-8-1 tear with Tennessee coming off a SU win, but the over has hit in five of the Titans’ last seven games overall. The under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 13-3 with the Bills catching 3½ to 10 points. That said, the over is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Detroit (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Minnesota (7-1, 5-3 ATS)
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The Vikings, already running away with the NFC Central, return from their bye week to face the Lions at the Metrodome.
Minnesota dispatched Green Bay for the second time this year two weeks ago, posting a 38-26 victory as a 3½-point road underdog to end a two-game ATS hiccup (1-1 SU). The Vikings have rolled up 27 points or more in all but one game this year – their 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago – and are averaging 30.5 ppg, second only to New Orleans.
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Detroit held a 17-0 lead at Seattle last week before falling apart and ultimately losing 32-20, failing to cover as an 11-point pup when rookie QB Matthew Stafford threw the last of his five INTs and had it returned 61 yards for a TD in the waning seconds. The Lions are allowing 29.6 ppg, second-worst in the league, while averaging a meager 16.6 ppg (26th).
Minnesota has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this divisional rivalry, including a 27-13 road win as a 10-point chalk on Sept. 20. The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the favorite is also 6-2-1 ATS in that stretch.
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The Vikings are on ATS upswings of 6-1 following a bye, 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in NFC North action and 6-2 in November, but they also shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 5-13 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 1-11 laying more than 10 points.
The Lions are on a 13-4 ATS roll as a pup of more than 10, but they are on a 1-24 SU nosedive (9-16 ATS) dating to late in the 2007 season, and they are on further ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 0-4 in November, 2-5 getting points and 8-17-1 against the NFC North.
The total has gone low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, but the “over” trends take over for both teams from there. The over for Minnesota is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Vikes favored, 7-1 in November and 12-3-1 after the bye, and the over for Detroit is on surges of 20-9-1 overall, 7-1 in November, 22-7 on the road, 18-7-1 against winning teams and 20-6 getting more than 10 points.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
New Orleans (8-0, 6-2 ATS) at St. Louis (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
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The Saints bring the NFL’s best record and best offense to the Edward Jones Dome for a meeting with the Rams, who are coming off their first victory in more than a year.
New Orleans overcame an early 14-0 deficit to Carolina in posting a 30-20 victory Sunday, though it fell just short as a 12½-point home chalk for its second straight ATS setback after cashing in its first six games. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is rolling up NFL bests of 426.9 ypg and 37.9 ppg, more than seven points better than any other team in the league. The Saints are outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 ppg.
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St. Louis, which had its bye last week, topped Detroit 17-10 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, giving new coach Steve Spagnuolo his first win and snapping a 17-game losing streak (6-11 ATS). That said, the Rams are still dead last in the NFL in scoring (9.6 ppg) and 26th in total yards (287.6 ypg), while allowing 27.6 ppg (29th) and 373.4 ypg (28th).
St. Louis is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings of this rivalry, including a 37-29 road upset in November 2007 as a 10-point pup. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Saints carry numerous positive pointspread streaks, including 11-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 13-3 giving points, 5-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams. The Rams are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering slides of 6-18 at the home dome, 3-12 as a home ‘dog, 3-11 catching more than 10 points, 9-23 against winning teams and 6-14 in the NFC.
New Orleans is on “over” surges of 20-8-1 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 17-7-1 as a favorite and 14-5 laying points on the road. The over for St. Louis is on runs of 9-4 after the bye and 3-1-1 at home, though the under for the Rams is 6-1 in their last seven after a SU win and 6-2 in their last eight November outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six clashes overall and six of the last seven in St. Louis.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Atlanta (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-5 SU and ATS)
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The Falcons hit the road for the third time in four weeks when they head north to Bank of America Stadium for an NFC South battle with the Panthers.
Atlanta beat Washington 31-17 Sunday as a healthy nine-point home favorite, ending a two-game SU skid while covering for the second straight week. The Falcons’ defense is allowing 369.9 ypg (24th), but they are holding opponents to just 20.8 ppg (12th). Atlanta is averaging 25.2 ppg (11th), paced by running back Michael Turner (720 yards, 10 TDs, 4.6 ypc), who is seventh in the league in rushing yards.
Carolina wasted a huge day by RB DeAngelo Williams (21 carries, 149 yards, 2 TDs), blowing an early 14-0 lead and losing to New Orleans 30-20 last Sunday, though the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. Williams appears to be hitting his stride, having run for 548 yards and five TDs over the past four games, including three games of 149 yards or better. The Panthers have the league’s third-best running game (153 ypg), but they are still just 21st in total yards (325.1 ypg) and are averaging just 18.5 ppg (tie 23rd).
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Atlanta has won and covered in three of the past four meetings in this divisional rivalry, including a 28-20 home win in September as a six-point favorite. The SU winner has cashed in the last nine clashes, the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run, and the Falcons are 15-7-4 ATS in the last 26 contests.
The Falcons sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-0 giving three points or less, 4-0 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five division roadies. The Panthers have covered in four of their last five NFC South starts, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 at home, 3-7 as a pup and 2-5 as a home ‘dog.
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The over for Atlanta is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the division, 7-1 in the NFC and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for Carolina is on streaks of 5-1 in the division, 11-4 in the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and 6-2 with the Panthers a ‘dog. However, the under is on upswings of 38-18-1 on the road for Atlanta, 6-0 with the Falcons a road favorite, 4-1 at home for Carolina and 4-1 with the Panthers a home pup.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 12 of the last 14 meetings in Charlotte.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Miami (3-5, 4-4 ATS)
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The Buccaneers, who finally cracked the win column last week, look to make it two in a row with the short trip south to LandShark Stadium to face the Dolphins.
Tampa Bay, with rookie QB Josh Freeman making his first start, scored 21 straight fourth-quarter points to clinch Sunday’s 38-28 victory over Green Bay as a 9½-point home underdog, giving new coach Raheem Morris his first career win. Freeman was just 14 of 31 for a modest 205 yards, but he threw three TDs against one INT, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes as the Bucs rallied from a 28-17 deficit and ended an 11-game regular-season losing streak.
Tampa still sits a lowly 28th in total offense (273.1 ypg) and 25th in scoring (16.8 ppg), while allowing 379.9 ypg (29th) and 28.9 ppg (30th).
Miami fell to New England 37-27 last week, eking out a pointspread cover as a 10½-point road pup to cash for the fourth time in five games, after opening the season 0-3 SU and ATS. The Wildcat offense has the Dolphins fourth in the league in rushing (150.9 ypg), yet they are just 23rd in total offense (309 ypg). Miami is also in the bottom half defensively, allowing 341.4 ypg (22nd) and 25.5 ppg (26th).
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These teams meet every year in the preseason, but they’ve had just one regular-season meeting this decade, with Tampa winning 27-13 as a 4½-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Buccaneers, who were on an 11-game SU slide (2-9 ATS) prior to last week’s win, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight November games, but they are on ATS dips of 2-8 overall, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-8 against losing teams, 2-6 as an underdog and 2-11 in non-conference road games. Likewise, the Dolphins are stuck in ATS ruts of 14-36-1 at home, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 7-22 as a favorite, 0-6 against the NFC and 3-16 as a non-division home chalk.
The over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-2 against losing teams and 11-4 on the road, and the over for Miami is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at LandShark and 10-3 after a SU loss.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-7, 3-5 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 4-4 ATS)
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Two traditional AFC West rivals square off, though neither squad has much to play for at the season’s midway point when the Chiefs head west to the Coliseum to face the Raiders.
Kansas City’s fourth-quarter rally fell short at Jacksonville last week, losing 24-21, but its two fourth-quarter TDs help the team cover as a seven-point road ‘dog. It marked the Chiefs’ highest point total since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th) with an offense that rates 30th in total yards (257.8 ypg).
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Oakland had its bye last week after a 24-16 road loss to San Diego, though it covered as an overwhelming 16-point pup. Like the Chiefs, that was the Raiders’ highest scoring output since Week 1, with an offense that makes K.C. look prolific by comparison. Oakland is averaging a dismal 9.8 ppg, tied for 30th with Cleveland and leading only the Rams (9.6 ppg). The Raiders are also last in total offense (215.8 ypg).
Oakland is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road victory as a one-point underdog on Sept. 20. Kansas City has cashed on its last six trips to the Coliseum, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings overall (including the last six in a row), the road team is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has covered in the last five contests.
The Chiefs are on a 13-6 ATS tear on the highway and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven division games, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against AFC foes, and dating to the 2008 season opener, K.C. is a pathetic 3-21 SU (11-13 ATS). The Raiders, meanwhile, are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 15-36-1 at home, 16-35-1 against losing teams, 5-18 as a favorite and 0-9 as a home chalk, and they’re 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years after the bye.
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In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine matchups overall and four in a row at Oakland. Furthermore, the under for Kansas City is on runs of 4-1-1 in division play and 8-2-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on sprees of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after the bye, 5-1-1 in the division, 12-3-1 in November and 7-3 at home.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (3-5 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3 SU and ATS)
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The defending NFC champion Cardinals, coming off yet another road win, return to University of Phoenix Stadium looking to sweep the season series from the NFC West rival Seahawks.
Arizona punished Chicago 41-21 Sunday as a one-point road ‘dog, improving to 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway this season. The home field has been a problem, though, as the Cards are 1-3 SU and ATS in Glendale, including a 34-21 loss to Carolina as a heavy 10-point chalk two weeks ago. QB Kurt Warner threw five INTs against Carolina, but bounced back with five TDs against Chicago.
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Despite Warner’s erratic play, Arizona still has the NFL’s eighth-best passing attack (262.4 ypg), but its running game – even after netting a whopping 182 yards against the Bears – still stands 31st at just 79.5 ypg.
Seattle got a pick-six in the waning seconds against Detroit to post a 32-20 win and cover as an 11-point home chalk Sunday, rallying from an early 17-0 deficit and halting a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Seahawks haven’t been able to string together two good games all year, following their season-opening 28-0 rout of St. Louis with three losses in which they scored 19 points or less, then totaling just 20 points in two losses following a 41-0 home rout of Jacksonville.
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Arizona pelted Seattle 27-3 four weeks ago as a three-point road pup and has now won and cashed in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. The Cards are on a 4-1 ATS run at home against the Seahawks, and the host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests. Also, the SU winner has cashed nine straight times.
The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division, 4-1 against losing teams, 7-2 in the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread victory. Conversely, the Seahawks are on pointspread purges of 2-5 overall, 2-9 after a SU win, 4-10 after an ATS win, 0-4 on the road, 0-5 as an underdog and 0-4 against winning teams. Plus, Seattle is on an 0-5 SU and ATS dive in road games following a SU win.
The over has been the play in this rivalry lately, hitting in eight of the last 11 overall and five in a row in Phoenix. Additionally, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 34-16 overall, 4-0 in November, 13-4 at home, 9-4 with the Cards a home chalk and 20-7 after a SU win. For Seattle, the over is on streaks of 4-1 from the underdog role and 9-4 with the ‘Hawks a road pup, though the under for the Seahawks is on upticks of 4-1-1 in division play and 6-2 in November.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Philadelphia (5-3 SU and ATS) at San Diego (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
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The surging Chargers go after their fourth straight victory in a non-conference clash with the Eagles at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego stunned the Giants with an 80-yard drive that ended on a Philip Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson TD pass with 21 seconds left last Sunday, securing a 21-20 road victory as a five-point road underdog. The Chargers are a middling 17th in total offense (335.4 ypg), but they are scoring 25.8 ppg (ninth), led by the seventh-best passing attack (265.8 ypg). Rivers has 14 TD throws against just six INTs.
Philadelphia tumbled to Dallas 20-16 as a three-point home favorite Sunday night, getting held under 22 points for just the second time this season while ending a two-game SU and ATS run. Like San Diego, the Eagles are in the middle of the league offensively (338.5 ypg, 15th), but they score at a healthy rate, averaging 27.4 ppg (fourth), and they’ve been bolstered by a plus-11 turnover margin, which is No. 1 in the NFL.
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These squads have met just twice this decade, both at Philadelphia, with the Eagles going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, Philly won 20-17 in October 2005, but San Diego cashed as a 4½-point pup.
The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they are otherwise in pointspread declines of 4-9 as a favorite, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 1-5 following a SU win, and they are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against NFC foes. The Eagles, despite last week’s debacle against Dallas, are on ATS tears of 11-5 overall, 14-6 on the road, 8-1 as a road pup and 5-0 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback.
The under has hit in six straight November games for San Diego and is 7-3-1 in its last 11 at Qualcomm, but the over for the Bolts is on surges of 5-2 against winning teams, 5-2-2 from the favorite’s role, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 following a SU win. Philadelphia is on “over” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-0 after a non-cover, 21-6 getting points and 26-12-1 against winning teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-4 SU and ATS)
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The Packers, already in desperation mode for wins just eight games into the season, renew their longtime rivalry with the streaking Cowboys at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay blew a 28-17 fourth-quarter lead against previously winless Tampa Bay, allowing the final 21 points of the game in a 38-28 road loss Sunday as a 9½-point chalk, its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Packers have given up 38 points in both those losses, after holding four of their first six opponents to 21 points or less.
Still, Green Bay has the NFL’s fourth-best total defense (282.9 ypg) and is allowing 21.5 ppg (17th), and QB Aaron Rodgers (16 TDs, five INTs) has been solid most of the time. The problem is that Rodgers has already been sacked an NFL-high 37 times this year, 10 more than anyone else in the league.
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Dallas scored a mild upset at Philadelphia on Sunday, winning 20-16 as a three-point pup for its fourth consecutive SU victory and third straight spread-cover. The Cowboys are third in total offense (404.5 ypg) and tied for fifth in scoring offense (27.1 ppg), and although they stand 20th in total defense (336.5 ypg), they’re only giving up 19 ppg (seventh). In fact, they’ve held their last six opponents to three TDs or less.
These rivals met each of the past two seasons, with Dallas going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-16 win as a three-point road chalk in September 2008. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team and the chalk are both 7-1 ATS in that same stretch.
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The Packers have failed to cover in four straight November games and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-5 in non-division home games, though they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 getting points and 7-3 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-0 in conference games, 12-2 in November, 9-4 as a chalk and 4-1-1 laying three or less on the road, but despite last week’s win in Philly, they remain only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away games.
Green Bay is on several “over” tears, including 23-9-1 overall, 4-0 in November, 20-5-1 in the NFC, 10-4 against winning teams and 12-5 at Lambeau. Similarly, the over for Dallas is on stretches of 7-3 overall, 6-2 with the Pokes favored and 15-6-2 with the Cowboys a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five contests.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
New England (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
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The undefeated Colts play host to the perennial power Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in a prime-time showdown featuring two of the NFL’s top teams this decade.
Indianapolis fended off Houston 20-17 at home last week, falling short as a 7½-point favorite for its second straight ATS loss. Peyton Manning (16 TDs, 5 INTs, 2,545 yards) leads an offense that is putting up 400.4 total ypg (fourth), including a league-leading 315 yards through the air, and Indy is tied for fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg). Also, despite having numerous injuries on defense, particularly in the secondary, the Colts stand eighth in yards allowed (303.4 ypg) and are No. 1 in points allowed (13.5 ppg), while also sporting a plus-7 turnover margin (fifth).
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New England dropped Miami 27-17 Sunday, winning its third straight game but coming up just short of cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. The Pats are third in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg) and second in total offense (409.2 ypg), with QB Tom Brady (16 TDs, five INTs) engineering a passing game that is second only to the Colts, averaging 295 ypg. The Patriots are also second only to Indy in points allowed, at a stifling 14.4 per game, while yielding 291.8 ypg (seventh), and they have a plus-8 turnover margin (tied for third).
These rivals have met nine times since 2003, including three times in the playoffs. Indianapolis is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, including an 18-15 home win last November in which it failed to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Pats are 8-3 ATS on their last 11 trips to Indy, and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 series clashes.
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The Colts shoulder several negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 at home, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-3-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a trio of 5-2 ATS upswings: overall, following a SU win and as a chalk of three points or less. The Patriots are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a SU win, but the pointspread trends head upward from there, including 37-17-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road).
The under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 at home and 5-1 in conference action, and the under for New England is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win and 14-6 in November. That said, the over is on surges of 11-5 when the Pats are a ‘dog and 6-2 with New England getting up to three points on the highway.
Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have fallen short of the total, including the last two in a row.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
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NFL betting was never intended to be as easy as laying 1.5 points with a 5-3 road team against a 3-5 host, so we're backing the Panthers, who were 3-0 ATS as a divisional host last year and hungry for a first home cover of the season. Carolina is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 revenge spots (lost to Atlanta 28-20 earlier in the year) and the Falcons have been shredded for 35 and 37 points their last two road games.
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Play on: Carolina
Tony George
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
Play: NY Jets -6.5
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Gotta like the Jets at home off a bye week. Usually I do not like teams off a bye week, but they have outplayed numerous opponents only to lose at games end, and the Miami defeat was a total meltdown debacle that left a bad taste in the mouth of the jets. Jacksonville is a BELOW AVERAGE team other than running back, and QB Garrard under pressure is not as effective as say he was against KC last week. The Jets can stuff the run, and I like their offense to click better with some time off, and some nagging injures to heal. All in all, the Jets are the better team, at home, and they match up well against the Jags.
Frank Jordan
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers +3
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Dallas is in first place after a big road win in Philly last week, but the road stays tough as they head to Green Bay. Green Bay is in need of a win to get back over .500 both at home and overall as they have dropped 2 in a row. Dallas is playing well on the road with a 3-1 record. Look for Green Bay to feed off the rowdy crowd and win over the Cowboys. Play Green Bay
Rob Vinciletti
New Orleans Saints vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams +13.5
The Rams have the extra week here to figure out how to slowdown the vaunted Saints offense. What we want to do is play on home dogs with rest at +6 or more vs an opponent who played last week. These rested home dogs are 24-5 ats. The Saints fit a negative system as well. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a home favored win and spread loss if today's opponent won their last game on the road. This system is 3-19 ats going against the favored Saints. The Rams 5-1 ats off a dog win and have covered 10 of the last 13 times after allowing 10 or less points. They will try to get their ground game going with S. Jackson and keep the Saints offense off the field. Look for them to stay within the 13.5 points today.
BIG AL
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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
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This will be Indy's third straight game at home under the roof of the RCA Dome. And the Colts failed to cover their previous two games. Two weeks ago, Indy won by just four points over San Francisco as a large favorite, and then last week, the Colts beat Houston by three points, as a nine-point fave. However, don't be surprised if the 3rd time is the charm for the Colts, as home favorites off back-to-back ATS losses as home faves are a solid 20-6 (77% ATS) since 1980. The Colts had failed to cover in nine straight games vs. the Pats through their playoff loss in January 2005, but since that time have covered four of the last five meetings, so Peyton Manning has been getting the better of Bill Belichick of late. Take Indianapolis.
LARRY NESS
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Over 43
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Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman showed promise last week but this is his first road start. He may surprise again this week but he'll have trouble trading points with the Dolphins. Tampa has played three road games so far plus that neutral-site game in London. If one were eliminate the game at Washington (Redskins have trouble moving the ball against a stiff wind), the Bucs have allowed 33 points at Buffalo, 33 at Philly and 35 to the Pats in London. They'll face a Miami team here which has averaged 31.5 PPG at home with all four of its games going 'over.' Let me add that Miami's four home games have averaged 59.0 PPG, two TDs more than the O/U line in this one. Take TB/Mia Over.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Rams +14
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Bottom Line: St. Louis has had a bye week to prepare and I expect it to keep this one closer than the experts think. New Orleans has failed to cover the spread back-to-back games now as odds makers are overvaluing the Saints to take advantage of the betting public that has fallen in love with them. New Orleans has been gashed by the run in recent weeks and the Rams can run it well with Steven Jackson. The Rams running game keeps the clock moving and the Saints offense off the field enough to pick up the cover here. New Orleans is on a 0-8 ATS skid after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Eagles +1
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I strongly feel the Eagles are the better team and I'll back them on the road here against a Chargers team that is yet to meet expectations. The Chargers have won 3 in a row, but 2 of those wins were against the Chiefs and Raiders, and they shouldn't have beaten the Giants as they had 15 fewer minutes of possession time and 80 fewer yards. Last week was the first week San Diego was really able to apply any pressure to the QB and they are going to have to show me they can do it again this week before I start buying in. So, not much heat on McNabb and no running game. That means Rivers is going to have to win another one with his arm and I don't think he has it in him against an aggressive Eagles defense out for blood after losing to Dallas last week. Philly is a tremendous is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog the last 3 seasons and I expect this trend to continue today. Take the Eagles.
Randall the Handle
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THE BEST
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Ravens @ Browns
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Not sure how it’s possible but the Browns keep getting worse. They’ve passed for a combined 261 yards in their previous three games. On the season, they’ve scored a puny 78 points. To put that into perspective, even the stagnant Redskins have scored 35 more points. On defence, Cleveland has relinquished 209 points to its opponents, ranking ahead of only Detroit and Tennessee. The 4-4 Ravens can ill afford to take this game lightly after a gruelling month that has put them behind the 8-ball. First encounter provided a 34-3 Baltimore romp. Expect a similar result.
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TAKING: Baltimore –10½
Chiefs @ Raiders
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Looks can be deceiving. While the scoreboard in the previous affair between these two read 13-10 for the Raiders, all other numbers disproportionately favoured the Chiefs. Kansas City outgained its guests by a 409-166 count. In that game, Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell was 7 for 24 for 109 yards with 69 of those yards coming in the final two minutes, en route to the game winning score. The Chiefs remain in rebuilding mode but at least appear to have some direction. The visitor has been dominant in this series with 12 covers and a push in past 13 meetings.
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TAKING: Chiefs +1 +1.08
Buccaneers @ Dolphins
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In the movie, Awakenings, Robert DeNiro plays a patient inflicted with a disease that puts him in a catatonic state until a doctor, played by Robin Williams, comes up with a cure that makes DeNiro and other patients spring back to life. Unfortunately, the cure is temporary. Enter the Bucs. After stunning the Packers last week, we expect Tampa to regress back to the woeful bunch that has little to offer. The Buccaneers got lucky, catching Green Bay in a Minnesota-Dallas sandwich. Miami comes off a month of Jets twice, Saints and Pats. This visitor will be a welcomed sight.
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TAKING: Miami –10
THE REST:
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Jaguars @ Jets
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The Jets have dropped four of five while failing as favourites in eight of their past 10. New York will miss nose tackle Kris Jenkins against the potent duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and QB David Garrard. A converted touchdown appears excessive.
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TAKING: Jacksonville +7
Bengals @ Steelers
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Even though the Bengals are tied atop the division with Pittsburgh, even though they’ve allowed less points than Pittsburgh, even though they’ve already defeated the Steelers, Cincinnati is still allotted a full touchdown. That’s just wrong.
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TAKING: Cincinnati +7
Lions @ Vikings
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After having a week off, the Vikings get another week off. But be careful. With the NFC North firmly in hand, a lacklustre effort by Minnesota would not surprise. Vikes have not been lucrative when favoured by seven or more, covering just six of past 21.
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TAKING: Detroit +16 ½
Broncos @ Redskins
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After their quick start, the Broncos are suddenly stuck in neutral. After compiling a mere 17 points in two weeks, things do not get easier against a formidable Redskins defence. Denver’s short week and pounding by the Steelers aren’t exactly positives either.
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TAKING: Washington +3 ½
Bills @ Titans
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Let’s not be so finicky, people. Three weeks ago, the Titans were neither watchable nor bettable. Now, we’re asked to give away a near touchdown with them? There has been improvement with Vince Young under center but Buffalo is much healthier following its bye.
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TAKING: Buffalo +6 ½
Saints @ Rams
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The Rams won their first game in 18 prior to their week off. Holiday over. Ideally, St. Louis worked on some of its many woes but they have yet to exceed 20 points in a game. The Saints score that many in a bye week.
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TAKING: New Orleans –13½
Falcons @ Panthers
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Atlanta much better at home where they’ve won 11 of past 12 compared to only five victories in last 13 away. Carolina lost at Falcons in earlier meeting but controlled much of the play in that one before succumbing 28-20. Turnabout is fair play.
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TAKING: Carolina +1½
Seahawks @ Cardinals
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Seahawks get a chance for ‘do-over’ after clunking first meeting 27-3 in Seattle. That’s nice in theory but when the ‘Hawks have gone 0-3 on the road this year while being outscored 95-44, there’s not much reason to buy into it.
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TAKING: Arizona –9
Cowboys @ Packers
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Until we see Green Bay knock off a contender, we’ll be glad to fade them in any short price range against winning teams. The Cowboys pass rush has come to life and that will make life difficult for a Packers team that can’t keep its quarterback upright.
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TAKING: Dallas –3
Eagles @ Chargers
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Something is just not right with these Eagles and we’re not sure if a trip out west after playing three divisional games will cure whatever ails them. Suddenly, Chargers just a game back of the Broncos with showdown on deck.
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TAKING: San Diego –2
Patriots @ Colts
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Unlike most NFL games, you don’t have to have a monetary interest in this one to enjoy it. Even so, Patriots get the lean here as it appears Tom Brady has worked his injured knee back into game shape and offensive arsenal is slightly more potent than Peyton Manning’s crew.
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TAKING: New England +3
Tony Mathews
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
Selection: Oakland Raiders -2
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Expect Oakland to come into this game against a division opponent with a lot of effort and concentration, especially after the extra prep time they’ve had due to their bye.
A big key with the Raiders in this game is they are getting healthier. In fact, RB Darren McFadden, WR Chaz Schilens, LG Robert Gallery and RT Cornell Green will most likely be starting again this week. We expect to see a significant improvement in the OL with a running game comeback; allowing for the best offensive performance of Oakland’s season.
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While the Raiders are certainly not a perfect team, they are 6-4 ATS which shows they are capable of competing over their last ten games. Historically, Oakland has been the better team, winning 3 of 4 of their last matchups against the Chiefs.
With such a small line, go with the revitalized, healthy Raiders as they win this game.
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Take the Oakland Raiders -2
Jeff Benton
Jacksonville +7 at NY JETS
For Sunday’s freebie in the NFL, take the Jaguars plus the points at the Jets.
Who is New York to be laying this kind of number against anyone? When last we saw the Jets two weeks ago, they were losing 30-25 at home to Miami as a 3½-point favorite. That came two weeks after a 16-13 home loss to the crappy Bills as a 9½-point favorite. In fact, since starting the season 3-0 SU and ATS, New York has lost four of its last five both SU and ATS, going 1-3 ATS as a favorite. The one win? 38-0 over the Raiders – does that even count anymore?
As for Jacksonville, it has won four of its last six since opening the season with consecutive losses. Granted, the Jags’ last two defeats came on the road and in ugly fashion (41-0 at Seattle; 30-13 at Tennessee). But this is the same team that won at Houston earlier this year (31-24 as a four-point underdog) and went to Indy on Opening Day and gave the Colts all they could handle before falling 14-12, but covering as a 6½-point ‘dog.
While Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a sizeable underdog (3½ to 10 points), the Jets have failed to cover in eight of 10 as a favorite, five of six as a home favorite and six of seven when laying 3½ to 10 points. And for what it’s worth, the Jaguars covered in the last five straight meetings with the Jets from 1999-2006, going 4-1 SU (New York’s lone win was a three-point home victory).
Bottom line: The Jets’ offense has scored more than 25 points just twice this year (and that includes the rout at Oakland), and it is averaging just 19.5 ppg in four home contests. And with a slumping Mark Sanchez (4 TDs, 8 INTs last five games) at the controls, it’s an offense that just isn’t dynamic enough to cover this kind of number. The Dolphins proved that in New York two weeks ago, as did Buffalo two weeks before that. Grab the big points.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE
Bobby Maxwell
Denver -3' at WASHINGTON
I'm 8-2 with my last 10 FREE selections and today I'm loving the Broncos as they are in Washington to take on the Redskins.
Denver has got to be in desperation mode right now after having dropped two straight and the Chargers breathing down their necks in the AFC West Division standings. And they get the Redskins who can’t score more than 17 points, so if the Broncos can get three touchdowns, this is an easy cover.
The Broncos’ defense is third in the NFL in yards allowed at 280.2 and points allowed, 15.5 ppg. They can certainly stop teams as they’ve proven with excellent efforts against New England, Dallas, Cincinnati and a good effort in San Diego against the Chargers.
Washington is in a state of disarray with all the words going back and forth between former players, the ownership, coaches and players. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this season and they have cashed in just one game this season. They are 0-4 ATS at home and last time they were here they gave up 27 first-half points to the Eagles and lost 27-17 as nine-point underdogs.
The Redskins are just 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 overall, 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records, 1-4-1 as a home ‘dog and 0-5-1 in November contests.
I don’t see the Redskins’ offense putting up more than 14 points in this one while Denver will not only score on offense a few times, but I expect their defense to score. Lay the small chalk and play the Broncos as this one ends up 24-14.
4♦ DENVER
Stephen Nover
Kansas City +2 at OAKLAND
The Raiders a favorite? I'm not buying that and neither should you. In the last four years, the Raiders have been favored seven times. Their record - 0-7!
The Raiders have covered just 29 percent of the time during their past 52 home games.
This has been a visitor series with the road team covering 12 of the last 13 times. The Chiefs have won six of the last eight times they've played in Oakland.
The Chiefs have revenge for a 13-10 loss to the Raiders in their home-opener. The Chiefs out-gained the Raiders, 409-110 and had a 38-39-21:21 edge in time of possession.
The Chiefs' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Branden Albert and center Rudy Niswanger. The addition of veteran wideout Chris Chambers gives Matt Cassel another tall red zone target to go with Dwayne Bowe.
The Chiefs have finally figured out that their running attack is better with Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith instead of over-the-hill Larry Johnson. Unlike Johnson, Charles and Smith can break runs outside. Morale is better, too, in Kansas City with the noxious Johnson off the team.
The Chiefs have covered in 13 of their last 19 away contests. Chiefs coach Todd Haley said his team had their best Friday practice of the season. He's expecting a strong performance based on how well the Chiefs practiced this week.
Kansas City's secondary is slow and vulnerable to speed. But JaMarcus Russell doesn't have the accuracy to take full advantage.
5♦ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS