Drew Gordon
Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH -7
Spurs Wednesday, Ball St. Thursday, Warriors Friday, S. Carolina Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Bengals/Steelers match up.
I'll be the first to admit that the Bengals are the "real deal," with a 6-2 record including impressive wins over the Bears and Ravens in their L2 games. But let's not go giving them the crown just yet. Today's match up at Heinz Field is their toughest road test to date, and with so many factors in Pittsburgh's favor, I say we see the Bengals get exposed in this one.
Look guys, I'm not saying the Bengals are a bad team, quite the contrary, they are definately in the top-tier of the NFL right now. But this match up just plain stinks for Palmer and company, as the Steelers are not only playing some of their best football of the season, but also have a mountain of motivation in this contest.
Since losing to the Bengals back in September, the Steelers have reeled off 5 straight wins (3-2 ATS), including wins against San Diego, Minnesota, and at Denver! But those wins mean little to a Steelers team chomping at the bit for some payback today at home. Make no mistake, there's a large motivational edge for Pittsburgh in this contest, as they look to even the score with their divisional rival.
The key to this contest is the Steelers defense, which is outstanding in all the areas necessary to stifle the Bengals. You see, if not for Cedric Benson having a career year, the Bengals wouldn't be having anywhere near the success they are enjoying this season. True, Benson was able to run all over the Ravens defense, but let's be honest, Baltimore is hardly the stop-unit they used to be. On the flip side, this Pittsburgh defense is as good as ever, allowing just 70 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season!
Bottom line, you slow down this Bengals rushing attack and all of a sudden we'll start to see them regress back to their old ways. Expect a motivated Steelers team to do just that, as they circle the wagons at home Sunday. Note, Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in their L9 home games, and you better believe they'll be bringing their "A" game this afternoon!
Take Pittsburgh over Cincinnati in this NFL match up.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH -7
I’m 28-12-1 with my last 41 overall free plays after a 2-0 sweep with Kentucky and Nevada yesterday!
Take the Steelers as the home chalk over the Bengals today.
At first glance I was surprised that this line was so high. I mean, you have the resurgent Bengals who beat the Steelers in the first meeting grabbing a full TD here? In a division game?
Then I started to see why Vegas set this line so high.
The Steelers completely blew that first game against the Bengals in Cincinnati. They dominated the first three quarters, but shot themselves in the foot. The defense was without Troy Polamalu, Limas Sweed dropped a 4th-quarter TD pass on a 4th down from the 35 that would have put the nail in the coffin, and the Steelers didn’t use Rashard Mendenhall in that contest.
Now the champs are on a roll. They are coming off a beatdown of the Broncos at Denver and their offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Steelers have transformed into a team that uses the pass to set up the run, instead of the other way around.
And when they run, Mendenhall has picked up huge chunks of yardage for the Steelers.
Let’s face it. Cincinnati is a good team. But they don’t have the weapons that the Steelers have.
The Bengals have a good ground game with Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer is looking more like he did in 2005. But they don’t have the array of weapons that Pittsburgh has with Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Mike Wallace and Mendenhall.
If these Steelers don’t beat you downfield with the pass, they’re going to hit a big run against you off the edge.
I have a feeling too many people are going to get sucked into taking the points.
Take the Steelers minus the number as they grab the 10-point home win.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Dallas -3 at GREEN BAY
I’m 28-12-1 with my last 41 overall free plays after a 2-0 sweep with Kentucky and Nevada yesterday!
Take the Cowboys as the road chalk over the Packers.
Green Bay is a mess right now while Dallas is hitting its groove.
The Packers have serious offensive line issues and the Cowboys pass rush is going to have a feast today on Aaron Rodgers.
The Cowboys have won four straight and are 3-1 ATS in that span. Dallas has the league’s third-ranked offense and are tied for fifth in scoring.
Green Bay has failed to cover in four straight November games and are on further ATS slides of 2-5 at home and 1-5 in non-divisional home games.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in conference games and are on further pointspread streaks of 12-2 in November, 9-4 as a chalk and 4-1-1 when laying three or less on the road.
Take the Cowboys minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ DALLAS
Tony Weston
It was close, but we have to take the loss with Pitt last night as they fall just short of covering against the Irish. I guess that’s what giving up 19 fourth-quarter points will do.
Anyway, I’m moving on and delivering today with some NFL action as I’m taking the New Orleans Saints on the road at the hapless St. Louis Rams.
The Rams come into this game having gone just 2-4 ATS their last 6 games overall and having failed to cover in 3 straight games at home.
At home, things have been horrendous for St. Louis where they have been outscored, on average, 38.6-11. In fact, the Rams have progressively scored fewer and fewer points each home going, going from 17 to 10 to 6 in their last home game where they lost huge 42-6 against the Colts.
Now they have to deal with a Saints team that’s averaging 40.3 points per game and is outscoring its opponents, on average, 40.3-21 on the road.
The Saints are also 6-2 ATS this season and are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road.
New Orleans is cruising to another road win and will hand the Rams another tough home loss.
3♦ SAINTS
MTi Sports
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are 18-1 ATS (+8.3 ppg) on the road after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and the Suns are 0-16 (-10.1 ppg) since during the regular season after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. Grab the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Miami Dolphins -10
This is a unique situation where you have a team laying double digits after they lost by double digits last week and their opponent this week won by double digits! This is just not a scenario you will see very often and, when you do, many will end up attracted to the dog as everyone remembers last week’s results. However, let’s take a closer look at last week’s games and you’ll see why we’re laying the points here. Even though Tampa Bay won by double digits over Green Bay last week, note that the Packers outgained the Buccaneers by 125 yards in the game. The Packers were done in by three turnovers. Note that the Buccaneers scored on a blocked punt and also scored on an interception return. That certainly had a lot to do with the final outcome.
As for the Dolphins, yes they lost by double digits last week but that was at New England and the Patriots only had one more first down than did Miami. Also, the Buccaneers were down 28-17 in the 4th quarter before rallying Sunday while the Dolphins were up 17-16 late in the 3rd quarter before they fell apart last week. These unusual finishes last week are skewing the perception of these teams. One last note: Tampa Bay’s seven losses this season have featured five by at least a 13 point margin and we expect a loss by double digits here. Another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in Miami! Consider a small play on the DOLPHINS Sunday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers -7
The Steelers are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now and this is a payback game having fallen to Cincy earlier this season. But here's the difference. This game is at home. Troy Polamalu will be playing this time around. And Rashard Mendenhall is now the starter at running back and the Steelers are 5-0 since he took over. Pittsburgh's defense is beginning to look more and more unstoppable and it seems to feed off of its strong efforts from one week to the next. In fact, Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by a whopping 30.2 to 13.5 average score. We'll lay the points for 1 unit.
Jr Tips
PATRIOTS at COLTS
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will try to stop the Colts' 17-game regular-season winning streak tonight in Indianapolis.The Patriots have relied on a patchwork defense to help them to a commanding lead in the AFC East and the the Colts have a two-game lead on the rest of the conference under first-year coach Jim Caldwell while leading the league in defense in points allowed. Although 8-0, Indianapolis has looked somewhat vulnerable in its last two games and winning their last game in a 20-17 home win over Houston on Sunday that would have gone to overtime had the Texans made a field goal as time expired. Peton Manning could be the frontrunner for his second straight MVP and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are having prolific years as they helped Manning throw for more than 300 yards in seven of his eight starts. After missing almost all of last year due to a major knee injury, Brady has regained his form recently throwing for 1,020 yards and 10 touchdowns during a three-game winning streak. New England's offense could present a difficult test for a young Indianapolis secondary that is without safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson for the rest of the season and they have a revamped defenses unit that ranks second in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game behind the Colts who lead the NFL allowing only 13. You will see experience on the offenses side of the ball going against 2 inexperienced and youing defenses especially in the secondary for the Colts. whatever defense can slow the other offense down will be the key although with 2 weeks to prepare, Bill Bellicheck and Tom Brady will take advantage this young and vulnerable secondary with their Top 2 players out. The Colts wont go undefeated this year and have been on the ropes the last 2 weeks and this New England offense will give them the knock out punch tonight.
TAKE NEW ENGLAND +2.5
Randall the Handle
Minnesota -½ +1.47 over CAROLINA
Again, the Canes are going to win a game at some point but as long as these tickets keep cashing, I’ll keep playing against them. The Wild most definitely are playing a whole lot better and in fact, dominated the Caps in the first 10 minutes of Friday’s loss before a little fatigue set in. They arrived in Washington playing its third game in four nights and they arrived there at 3:00 AM. The game before, in Tampa, they lost 4-3 in OT but dominated for 50 minutes and the Bolts had no right winning that one. Previously, the Wild had won four of five and this team is just too determined to get outplayed by these Canes. They also don’t want to be the team to lose to Carolina and its 14 game losing streak. One can only imagine how dead the RBC Center will be, as the NFL football Panthers have a home game at 1:00 PM. Anyway, Michael Leighton gets the call in net for the Canes after Manny Legace went 0-2. Leighton is the guy that has been sitting around for years waiting for an opportunity and when it came the team went out and signed a washed-up and rusty goaltender that they inserted into the line-up right away. I’m sure he’s feeling the loyalty. The Canes are a complete grease-fire and once again, until they show us something different, there is no argument to not go against them. Game time is 1:30 PM EST. Play: Minnesota -½ +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.17 over Edmonton
At some point the Oilers are going to make some real noise because they’re young, talented and have a lot of upside. However, that’s going to have to wait a bit because right now this team is just so banged up and are looking for healthy bodies more than anything else. The Oilers will also be playing its sixth road game in its last seven starts and its fourth road game in a row. They need to get home, regroup and get this thing going, which they will but chances are it’s not going to happen here. These Thrashers are getting very tough to beat. They have a ton of firepower upfront and in fact, have scored 12 goals in two games since Kovalchuk’s return. The Thrashers defense is getting into the picture too, as they lead the NHL in goals by the defense with 16. This, too, is an afternoon match and on the road that can’t work in the Oilers favor. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
King Creole
MIN / DET Under 47.5
The rested Vikings are laying a ton of chalk this week in their division game against the pitiful Lions. And when they get out to a big lead in this game, there's a good chance they will be 'calling off the dogs' in the 2nd half and just keeping the ball on the ground.7-23 O/U L4Y: All NFL home favs 3 > points playing with REST… against DIVISION opponents, these teams have gone 2-12 O/U. In their last game,
Minnesota won as a road dog against the Green Bay Packers.0-5-1 O/U since 1999: All DOUBLE-DIGIT div favs playing off a SU division dog win.
After getting out to a 17-pt lead against the Seahawks last week, the Lions came crashing back down to earth and lost by 12 points (as dogs of +11.5 pts). That result makes it 3 SU and ATS losses in a row for these pussy-cats.
3-13 O/U L6Y: All DD dogs playing off BBB SUATS losses w/ an OU line of 38 > points. In the last 3 years, dogs of 14 > points have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.
These 2 teams played each other back in week two and combined for only 40 points. With that result, the series has now gone 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings… with an average of only 37.4 combined PPG. In the last 5 years, the Vikings have been big division favs of 7 > points six times. And they've gone UNDER in ALL six of em.
When we see an OU line this high (47+ points), it usually requires TWO good offenses to go Over the Total. That's simply not the case here when you factor in the poor Lions (Detroit: 10 PPG last 3). BIG div favs of MORE than 16 pts have gone 0-3 O/U in the last 3 years. Final score: 28-10