Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 17

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Detroit at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 home games versus the Pistons. LA is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2 1/2)

Game 701-702: Portland at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.681; Toronto 118.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Memphis at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.065; Sacramento 115.352
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Under

Game 705-706: Detroit at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.486; LA Lakers 118.650
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2 1/2); Over

NCAAB

Michigan at Iowa State
The Cyclones host a Michigan team that is coming off a 93-59 win over South Carolina State on Tuesday and is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Iowa State is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Cyclones favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1)

Game 707-708: Duquesne at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 48.712; West Virginia 59.260
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 14
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+14)

Game 709-710: Indiana State at Notre Dame (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.751; Notre Dame 71.111
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-10 1/2)

Game 711-712: Youngstown State at Massachusetts (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 51.512; Massachusetts 66.153
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 12
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-12)

Game 713-714: Long Beach State at Kansas State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 53.143; Kansas State 62.733
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+12 1/2)

Game 715-716: UL-Lafayette at Baylor (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 56.156; Baylor 68.570
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Baylor by 15
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+15)

Game 717-718: South Carolina at Clemson (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 50.566; Clemson 63.553
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-4 1/2)

Game 719-720: Michigan at Iowa State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 74.197; Iowa State 77.145
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1)

Game 721-722: Towson at Villanova (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 58.743; Villanova 66.730
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 8
Vegas Line: Villanova by 12
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+12)

Game 723-724: Bradley at Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 55.621; Illinois 64.765
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 9
Vegas Line: Illinois by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+12 1/2)

Game 725-726: Oregon State at Maryland (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 54.881; Maryland 69.755
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 15
Vegas Line: Maryland by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-12 1/2)

Game 727-728: Valparaiso at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.995; Ohio 67.141
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-7 1/2)

Game 729-730: Florida Atlantic at Boston College (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 49.963; Boston College 61.968
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 12
Vegas Line: Boston College by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+16 1/2)

Game 731-732: Oakland at Gonzaga (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 48.684; Gonzaga 79.096
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 21
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-21)

Game 733-734: Illinois State at Northwestern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 54.702; Northwestern 59.568
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 5
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+9 1/2)

Game 735-736: Tennessee Tech vs. IPFW (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 49.805; IPFW 53.867
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 4
Vegas Line: IPFW by 2
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-2)

Game 737-738: TX-Pan American at TX-Corpus Christi (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Pan American 45.960; TX-Corpus Christi 50.512
Dunkel Line: TX-Corpus Christi by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: TX-Corpus Christi by 7
Dunkel Pick: TX-Pan American (+7)

Game 739-740: James Madison vs. San Jose State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 47.979; San Jose State 46.292
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+3 1/2)

Game 741-742: WI-Milwaukee at Northern Illinois (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 51.559; Northern Illinois 42.261
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 1
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-1)

Game 743-744: St. Peter's at Kent State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 44.681; Kent State 61.848
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 17
Vegas Line: Kent State by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-13 1/2)

Game 745-746: Stanford at Denver (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 63.550; Denver 63.988
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Stanford by 2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2)

Game 747-748: Belmont at North Carolina (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 58.439; North Carolina 73.801
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 13
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-13)

Game 749-750: Northern Arizona at Loyola-Marymount (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 46.482; Loyola-Marymount 54.533
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 8
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11)

Game 751-752: Western Illinois at Pacific (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 51.140; Pacific 62.225
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 11
Vegas Line: Pacific by 9
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-9)

Game 753-754: Marshall at Morehead State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 53.016; Morehead State 50.635
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+5)

Game 755-756: Rider at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 51.571; Purdue 68.782
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 17
Vegas Line: Purdue by 14
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-14)

Game 757-758: Tennessee-Martin at Florida State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 41.201; Florida State 60.621
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+22 1/2)

Game 759-760: Eastern Washington at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 48.372; Washington 58.864
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+13 1/2)

Game 771-772: Boston U at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 51.873; Connecticut 72.337
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 15
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-15)

Game 773-774: Stony Brook at Indiana (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 61.662; Indiana 75.496
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 14
Vegas Line: Indiana by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11 1/2)

Game 775-776: Robert Morris at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 55.355; Kentucky 69.343
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 14
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 21
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+21)

NHL

Dallas at Vancouver
The Stars look to build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 road games. Dallas is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135)

Game 51-52: Columbus at Ottawa (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.659; Ottawa 10.510
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 53-54: St. Louis at Washington (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.613; Washington 11.156
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 55-56: Los Angeles at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.287; NY Rangers 12.604
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110); Under

Game 57-58: San Jose at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.422; Chicago 11.558
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110); Over

Game 59-60: Dallas at Vancouver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.940; Vancouver 11.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.008; Minnesota 12.690
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-185); Under

Nick Parsons

N.Y. Jets vs. Buffalo
Pick: Under

There are just seven total weeks left in the regular season.

New York enters Week 11 at 5-4, but just 1-3 on the road. Two weeks ago it would thoroughly dominate the high-flying Saints defensively and win 26-20 in front of the home town crowd.

Buffalo is 3-7 and just 2-3 at home. Last week it fell 23-10 in Pittsburgh.

These clubs played on September 22nd and the Jets would hold on for the 27-20 win, the total sailing above the posted number of 41 in that one.

However four of these teams last six in the series played in Buffalo have fallen below the posted number, and it's important to note that New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games following its bye over the last two seasons.

Also beware of the fact that Buffalo has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last 12 when playing the role of favorite.

The Bottom Line

With their patchwork offense, the Bills have mustered just 23 points over back-to-back losses; with their bye-week on the horizon and facing a rejuvenated Jets' defensive unit this week, all signs point to points once again being at a premium between these divisional rivals.

The situation and trends all point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this matchup.

Art Aronson

Green Bay vs. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Green Bay

The visiting Green Bay Packers sit at 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS after a 13-27 loss at home to Chicago. Scott finished 24 of 39 for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Eddy Lacy rushed 24 times for 73 yards while Jarrett Boykin had eight catches for 112 yards in the loss. The New York Giants moved to 3-6 SU and ATS after a 20-24 win over the Oakland Raiders. Eli Manning completed 12 of 22 passes for 140 yards, one TD and one INT. Andre Brown had 115 yards rushing and one TD in the win. Everyone is pretty down on the Packers right now and I feel that it is giving us some pretty good value as they are the underdog to a 3-6 team in the Giants. The G-Men are just 1-3 ATS at home this year and 1-2 as the favorite. The Packers have had another week and a full game to prepare with life without Aaron Rodgers. Mike McCarthy is still a good coach and I expect him to have some tricks up his sleeves to get a much needed win here. The Giants have had a nice little win streak going here but we have to temper the enthusiasm as the team has beaten teams with losing records in Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia. This is going to be close with the Pack having a shot at winning this game. Grab all the points you can get.

Carlo Campanella

Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -2½

Last week my free 7* pick and Pod Cast discussed betting on NFL back-up QBs. Heading into Sunday's action the back-up QBs were 14-16 ATS on the season, and posted a 4-2 ATS record on Sunday, with Tennessee (Locker out), St. Louis (Bredford out), Tampa Bay (Freeman cut) and my 7* pick Philadelphia (Vick out), all making their backers money. Now back-up QBs own an 18-18 ATS record on the year! This Sunday, the Bears will start back-up QB Josh McCown when hosting Baltimore. While starting QB Jay Cutler played last Sunday, he looked sore and his injured arm didn't allow him to make the throws that were needed to win the game, so the Bears lost, 21-19, to Detroit. QB McCown looked solid when beating Green Bay two weeks ago, 27-20, and throwing for 271 yards. Expect the Chicago offense to look better at home this Sunday against a Raven's team that's struggled away from home, posting a 1-4 SU & ATS road record. We'll "play on" the Bears and their back-up QB McCown this weekend.

Brady Kannon

Minnesota +13

The Seattle Seahawks had their sights set on beating up on The Atlanta Falcons last week, the team that ended their season in the playoffs, last year. They not only accomplished this with ease but were handed a loss by The 49'ers to boot, giving the Pacific Northwesterners a 2.5 game lead in the NFC West. With the lousy Vikings on tap and a bye week to follow, Seattle is sipping decaf, trying to relax, and get healthy before the stretch run. Minnesota counters with a 3-and-0 ATS mark when coming off of an underdog outright win versus an opponent of a win. The Vikings, with some extra days off and a notch of confidence under their belt, will keep this one under 13 versus a disinterested host. Vikings Victory? Probably not. Minnesota Money? We think so.

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Cleveland (4-5) at Bengals (6-3)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Down on the Bengals, are you? You wouldn't be alone, as Cincinnati has dropped two straight, failing to cover in both. Prior to the consecutive losses, QB Andy Dalton had thrown 11 touchdowns compared to two interceptions over a three game-winning streaking that saw the Bengals' offence rack up 103 points. But things kind of went south in this last pair where Dalton tossed for just two majors while being intercepted six times. So what will break this current streak? How about a home game? The Bengals host for just the second time in six weeks with this one leading up to their bye week. Cincinnati has flourished on its own field with a perfect 4-0 mark, including wins over the Packers and Patriots before crushing the stingy Jets to the tune of a 49-9 score. It's not like a juggernaut is coming for a visit. The Browns have a journeyman QB leading the way and they remain a sub-.500 squad. Recent form dictates a discounted number and we're buying in. TAKING: BENGALS -5 1/2
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N.Y. Jets (5-4) at Bills (6-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Geno Smith vs. EJ Manuel II. These AFC East rookie quarterbacks will hook up again after Smith and his Jets took Round 1 in an earlier contest. Smith has shown some poise for a rook, but he's also been prone to beginner mistakes as his eight-touchdowns-to-13-interceptions ratio will attest. As for Manuel, he missed several games with a knee injury before returning to the field last week in a loss at Pittsburgh. Now the Bills are home where they are always dangerous and Manuel will have had a game under his belt. The young QB has also shown some positives, throwing for more TDs than intercepts. The Jets continue to be in this win-lose-win-lose pattern. They arrive here off their bye, but also off a home win. These New Yorkers have been much better in New Jersey. Rex Ryan's club has just one road win in four tries and that came against the lowly Falcons. The Jets were stomped in Tennessee and at Cincinnati. We don't need a stomp here, just a win. We like that. TAKING: BILLS -1
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Chiefs (9-0) at Broncos (8-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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No one can deny Denver's scoring prowess. The question that will ultimately be answered here is how good is this Kansas City defence? Peyton Manning's team is averaging an extraordinary 41.2 points per game. For some perspective, the Saints are next at 29.2 points per game. However, this Kansas City defence is allowing just 12.3 points per game. Something's gotta give. Don't be surprised if the undefeated Chiefs are exposed here. The pointspread tells you something. Not only is Kansas City the first 9-0 team to be an underdog, it is taking back more than a converted touchdown. The trouble is K.C.'s inability to score points with a passing game averaging less than 200 yards per game. The Chiefs have been blessed with the softest of schedules. They have not defeated a team that currently owns a winning record. They have faced backup QBs on more than one occasion, including a Buffalo team with Jeff Tuel at the helm that racked up 470 yards on offence. The Chiefs are improved, but not to the level we've been led to believe. TAKING: BRONCOS -8
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Falcons (2-7) at Buccaneers (1-8)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We could use two off-ramps for this one. The difference is that the Falcons have shown little desire to continue this awful season, while the Bucs appeared spirited in their first win this past Monday night. We'll hope that Tampa can build on that victory and respond to an earlier loss to Atlanta (Falcons last win) with another respectable effort. This current Falcons team has no appeal as a road favourite, with its non-existent ground game and the inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Too many injuries have taken their toll on this visitor and, unless we're taking points with them, we'll avoid them for now. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +1 1/2
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Lions (6-3) at Steelers (3-6)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With Jim Schwartz as coach, we'll be surprised to see his Lions handle success well. Even when winning, this Detroit group takes some peculiar routes to get there. The Leos will travel on consecutive weeks and they could get caught napping after an important victory in Chicago last week. Pittsburgh's offensive line issues have been well-documented, but QB Ben Roethlisberger seems to be adapting. Big Ben is limiting mistakes and has been able to rely on an improving ground game. The Steelers should be able to mix it up as Detroit ranks 27th in pass defence while Pittsburgh's pass prevention is fourth best, allowing just 201 yards per game. Steelers haven't conceded anything yet as the division is still within reach. TAKING: PITTSBURGH +2 1/2
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Redskins (3-6) at Eagles (5-5)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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You may remember way back to the Monday night opener when the nation was introduced to Philadelphia's novel offence. If you don't, the Redskins certainly do. Blindsided at first with Philly taking a 26-7 lead into halftime, the Redskins fought valiantly after figuring out some things, but fell short in a 33-27 decision. Now with 10 days to prepare for the rematch, the 'Skins should be able to go toe-to-toe with their host as these two teams have nearly identical stats in most notable categories. Eagles also have this home bugaboo thing, losing 10 straight as hosts. Philadelphia is giving up too much yardage to earn an endorsement as chalk, especially against a motivated and familiar division rival. TAKING: REDSKINS +3 1/2
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Chargers (4-5) at Dolphins (4-5)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We sure hope the Chargers collect travel points as we've just crossed over the halfway point of the season and this will be San Diego's fourth trip to the Eastern time zone. They'll face a troubled Miami team that isn't playing well and remains at the centre of the bullying issue. Still, we prefer to side with the home dog as the Chargers continue to give up huge yardage through the air. That could be just the remedy the Fins need. San Diego's defence continues to suffer from poor tackling and breakdowns, which lead to big plays for the opposition. Miami should be able to take advantage. TAKING: DOLPHINS +2
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Ravens (4-5) at Bears (5-4)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Josh McCown gets the start for the home-town Bears as Jay Cutler tries to mend whatever ails him. Cutler's absence has shortened this price just enough to provide value with the host Bears. McCown is a capable backup and Chicago players are happy to have his skills and upbeat demeanour under centre. The Ravens arrive off of an unusual overtime win against the division-leading Bengals. Baltimore has not won consecutive games since the second and third weeks of the season. Much of Baltimore's woes can be attributed to a subpar offensive line and a running game that can't get untracked. The Ravens haven't exceeded 20 points in more than a month and that won't cut it on this day. TAKING: BEARS -3
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Raiders (3-6) at Texans (2-7)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tough to get a handle on this one as the status of Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor is unknown at the time of this writing. If Pryor can't go, Oakland will turn to undrafted rookie Matt McGloin. Despite Houston's awful season and seven-game losing streak, its defence is still a stellar unit and one that McGloin will not have an easy time against. Still, not anxious to be giving away a full touchdown with a team on this current slide. It doesn't help matters that Texans star RB Arian Foster has been lost for the year. The Raiders have been a resilient bunch, failing to cover just once in the past eight games following a loss. TAKINGS: RAIDERS +7
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Cardinals (5-4) at Jaguars (1-8)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We're not going to get all giddy now that the Jaguars have finally won a game. But we will have to give them consideration here as that monkey is off their backs and they can relax a bit. The Cardinals are earning some respect around the league, but that comes on the heels of a three-game homestand, where these Redbirds are always tough. The Cards have won just once in four tries away from home and that was by a field goal at Tampa. This is a big number no matter who the opposition might be, especially with Arizona QB Carson Palmer being good for an interception or two in almost every game. Jags can hang around in this one. TAKING: JAGUARS +7
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Vikings (2-7) at Seahawks (9-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The betting public has become fearful of fading the Seahawks at home. Oddsmakers recognize this by adding a luxury tax to the number in order to support them. Seattle has been favoured by double digits on four occasions this season. Its only cover in that set was against the woeful Jaguars with failures against the Titans, Rams and Bucs. While the Vikings have had a difficult season, their record is not quite indicative of their play. Three of Minnesota's losses have occurred in the final minute of play. We could see a lot of running in this game by both sides and let's not forget that Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson racked up 182 yards and two touchdowns in this matchup last year. TAKING: VIKINGS +12 1/2
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49ers (6-3) at Saints (7-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't expect the Saints to have another 40 first downs this week after setting a record against the leaky Dallas defence. The Niners are a solid defensive unit, allowing just more than 17 points per game while holding opponents to less than 12 points per game over their past six contests. New Orleans has been lights out at home, but San Fran has had some success against this worthy opponent, winning the past two meetings. The key for success for the visitor will be to utilize its strong pass rush against New Orleans' average pass protection. In those two previous encounters, the Niners sacked Drew Brees on eight occasions. If they can apply such pressure here, it should stay close. TAKING: 49ers +3
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Packers (5-4) at N.Y. Giants (3-6)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Unfortunately for the Packers, first-time starting quarterbacks don't come with training wheels. Green Bay is forced to go with Scott Tolzien here as both the No.1 and 2 guys are in the infirmary. The timing couldn't be better for the host Giants. The G-Men are on a three-game winning streak in their desperate bid to climb back into contention in their attainable division. The Packers are hurting at more than the quarterback position and they don't have Aaron Rodgers to bail them out. The Pack could only muster up 13 points in a home loss to the Eagles last week. Now they'll hit the road where they've covered just once in the past seven tries and that was with a more potent lineup than what is being trotted out now. TAKING: GIANTS -4 1/2
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Patriots (7-2) at Panthers (6-3)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you don't already know it, the Carolina Panthers are for real. They play outstanding defence, they have some dynamic playmakers on offence and they are on a current five-game winning streak. This will be a good test for them we think they'll be ready. Yes, the Patriots have appeal as an underdog but, again, this line is undervalued based on pedigree and popularity. New England has struggled on the road this year, defeating Buffalo by two points, losing in Cincy while scoring just six points and dropping one to the Jets by allowing 30 points. If you think the extra week will help the Pats, think again as Bill Belichick's team has failed to cover the past four seasons after its rest. TAKING: PANTHERS -2 1/2

Dave Mathews

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +9

The NFL top game of the week takes us to Denver as the Kansas City Chiefs visit on Sunday night. This is a major test for Kansas City, who has played a soft schedule so far, but has won every matchup. The Chiefs defense will keep them in this one as they should be able to put good pressure on Peyton Manning who will have very limited mobility with a high ankle sprain.

Dave Mathews's Featured Package

Wunderdog

Arizona at Jacksonville
Pick: Arizona -8

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally won a game last week. Congratulations. They ended up in a shootout against Tennessee, scoring a season-high 29 points. Sometimes it takes just one game to start to believe that you can score, so I expect that the Jags don't get to 29 again here, but score more than the 11.8 points per game they were averaging before last week. The bigger problem for the Jags remains their defense which has allowed 32.3 points per game and is showing little signs of improvement. Only once this season have they held an opponent to under 24 points (and that was offensively challenged Oakland). Arizona is a much improved team over a year ago. Over the last eight weeks they are 5-3 with the losses coming to San Francisco, New Orleans and Seattle - nothing to cry about there. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat. The offense, which had been problematic, has suddenly found its way as the Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in five straight games. Last year they scored 20+ just once in their final 12 games so this team is far advanced offensively over a year ago. The Cards have now covered six of their last seven following an ATS loss. While Jacksonville may have that satisfied feeling here, as they are 1-7-1 ATS off a win in their previous game. And home field has provided no advantage for them as they are just 2-9 ATS at home dating back to last season. Lay the points with Arizona.

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HOUSTON (-9) 25 Oakland 15FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland enters this game off of a 20-24 loss to the Giants in New Jersey in a game the featured multiple defensive and special teams touchdowns. The defenses ruled the day (213 yards at 3.9 yppl for the Raiders to 254 yards at 4.2 yppl for the Giants) and without much of a passing offense the Raiders had trouble moving the ball with any consistency. It looks like there is a change to backup QB Matt McGloin and that could spell trouble here for the Raiders as not only was Terrelle Pryor the Raiders leading passer, but he was their leading rusher as well. He accounted for 504 rushing yards at 7.4 ypr and was over 39% of their rushing offense. Without him, and with a rookie QB making his first start against the Texans in Houston who are hungry for their first win in a long time, I am going to lean with the Texans here. The Texans are a much better team than their record indicates and have one of the better defenses in the league (holding opponents that average 336 yards at 5.4 yppl to 281 total yards and 5.0 yppl). The Raiders do qualify in a couple of pretty good situations that are 240-144-8 and 77-27-2 but my model adjusted for the Raiders QB change now favors the Texans by 11.3 points and as a result I will offer a weak lean to Houston minus the points.
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Cleveland (+5.5) 17 CINCINNATI 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns come into this game off of their bye and a 24-18 home win against the division rival Ravens. That win, coupled with consecutive Bengal losses, has brought the Browns back into the conversation in the AFC North as they trail Cincinnati by only a game in the win column. This is a big divisional game and the Browns have had two weeks to plan and prepare. Season numbers on the Browns show a team that has not been good rushing the football (82 yards at 3.8 ypr to teams that allow 111 yards at 4.3 ypr) and has been below average in the passing game, although most of that is attributable to Brandon Weeden. Jason Campbell has actually done a pretty good job with a 61.3 completion percentage for 561 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Defensively the Browns have been very good overall allowing 316 yards at 4.6 yppl to teams that average 346 yards at 5.3 yppl. They face a Bengals team this week that is 4-0 at home this year and will be looking to avenge their 6-17 loss in Cleveland earlier this season. The Bengals have been just better than average overall this season offensively but their strength has been their very good defense that allows 312 yards at 4.7 yppl to teams that average 351 yards at 5.3 yppl. Despite losing several key defenders in recent weeks the Bengals defense played very well last week in Baltimore holding the Ravens to 189 total yards at 2.7 yppl while sacking Joe Flacco 5 times and generating 3 turnovers. I don’t have any situations in play here but projections show a low scoring game and as a result I will lean with the Browns plus the points and the Under.
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TAMPA BAY (+1) 24 Atlanta 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons have been in a real free-fall recently losing their last three games by a combined 33-94 and have really been non-competitive. Injuries on both sides of the ball have really hurt this team and with Super Bowl aspirations before the season started now dissolved, this is a team that may be struggling to find adequate motivation at times moving forward. Last week against the Seahawks they were thoroughly outplayed (226 total yards at 4.2 yppl to 490 yards at 7.1 yppl) and are dealing with additional injuries to TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Harry Douglas this week. Overall season stats show a team that cannot run the football (averaging 66 yards at 3.7 ypc to teams that allow 104 yards at 4.2 ypc) and plays bad defense (allowing 379 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain 339 yards at 5.3 yypl). They now travel to face the Bucs off of their first win of the season last Monday night at home. Coming off of that win, the Bucs will likely have some confidence here against the Falcons and at this point field the better team. The Bucs have played good defense this year in allowing 336 yards at 5.5 yppl to teams that average 355 yards at 5.6 yppl. That, combined with the fact that Atlanta has really struggled moving the ball recently and have some additional injuries on offense leads me to believe that the Bucs have a good shot at winning this game. Tampa Bay has some match-up advantages here that they should take advantage of and my model favors Tampa Bay (-.6). I don’t have any situations in play here so I will just lean with the Bucs plus the points.
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Detroit (-2.5) 27 PITTSBURGH 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions are coming off of a big 21-19 divisional win against the Bears last week in Chicago where they dominated in the run game (146 yards at 5.8 ypc to 38 yards at 1.9 ypc for the Bears) and were able to hold off a late rally after Josh McCown came in and replaced Jay Cutler. This week they travel to Pittsburgh to face a non-conference foe before heading back home next week to play the Bucs. It looks like Calvin Johnson is still a bit banged up after missing his second consecutive day of practice on Thursday and if he does not play the Lions will have a hard time moving the ball against a Steelers defense that is allowing an average of 201 passing yards per game against teams that gain 222 passing yards on average. Pittsburgh has picked up their level of play recently and after an 0-4 start they are now 3-2 in their last 5 games and only 2 games back in the loss column. The Lions benefit from a 40-74-1 statistical indicator that plays against Pittsburgh and I will have to wait and see how Calvin Johnson’s injury shakes out before drawing a definitive conclusion here. Assuming he plays I like the Lions.
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JACKSONVILLE (+8.5) 18 Arizona 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona has played well recently winning four of their last six (the two losses were to the Seahawks and the 49ers) and beat the Texans last Sunday at home 27-24. They controlled the game for the most part (334 yards at 5.6 yppl to 235 yards at 3.5 yppl for the Texans) but a Rashard Mendenhall fumble inside the Arizona 5 yard line late in the fourth quarter led to a Houston touchdown that made the final score closer than the actual performance levels on the field would indicate. The Cardinals have been slightly below average on offense overall so far this year but their defense has played really well (allowing 331 yards at 4.9 yppl to teams that average 353 yards at 5.5 yppl). They now take to the road where they have not been good (1-3) to play the Jaguars who may have some confidence after getting their first win of the season last week against the Titans 29-27. As I say almost every week, it is impossible to make a statistical case for the Jaguars based on in-season statistics as they are abysmal across the board. However, often times there can be line value on these bad teams due to a number of factors mostly having to do with public perception and having their opponent take them lightly. Both come into play here in one of my favorite situations that plays on the Jaguars that is 153-86-10. I like the Jaguars plus the points.
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PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) 31 Washington 24FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins enter this game off of a Thursday night loss in Minnesota where they outplayed the Vikings from the line of scrimmage (433 yards at 5.6 yppl to 309 yards at 6.2 yppl) and had a huge rushing advantage (193 yards at 5.3 ypr to 93 yards at 4.2 ypr) which is generally a good sign of success. They had a chance to tie it late but couldn’t convert and now travel to Philadelphia with a 3-6 record. They know that they have an opportunity to turn their season around here and gain some ground in a poor division but I’m not sure they can get the job done. Overall, the Redskins have the statistical profile of an about average team from a yppl perspective but my adjusted points rating (which takes into account all scoring including special teams and defensive touchdowns and adjusts for competition) shows that they are tied for 23rd in the league. They have some real defensive deficiencies, particularly in the defensive backfield as they allow 7.3 yps to teams that gain 6.9 on average. I see that being a problem against the Eagles who have played really well offensively with Nick Foles and an excellent Philadelphia passing attack. In addition, the Philly defense has come together and played much better recently. After allowing 34.5 points per game through their first four games the Eagles have held opponents to an average of only 17.7 points per game in their last six. Although the media is making a big deal of problems that they have had recently at home, that stat and it's limited sample size have no predictive power and shouldn’t be taken into account. The Eagles have some excellent match-ups in this game both running and throwing the ball and my model favors the Eagles here by quite a bit (-9.3). Unfortunately this is a game where the numbers and the situations are in conflict as the Redskins qualify in a 240-144-8 situation and benefit from a negative 136-218-10 situation that plays against the Eagles. Given all of that, I will lean with the Eagles based on the strong match-up and model numbers.
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San Diego (-1.5) 27 MIAMI 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins fell short in their comeback attempt last Monday night against the Bucs after they trailed 0-15 in the second quarter. After coming out about as flat as possible, they took the lead in the third quarter 19-15 but didn’t have enough late to get the job done as Tampa got their first win of the season 22-19. While some players acknowledged that the Martin/Incognito situation was a distraction last week, I don’t think it will have any impact against the Chargers this week other than the loss of two marginal OL starters. This is an important game for both teams as they are in similar situations at 4-5 and fighting for position for a possible wildcard playoff spot. Miami has been a below average team this year on both sides of the ball and have an offensive line that was only able to generate 2 yards on 14 carries last week against the Bucs. Fortunately for them they face the Chargers this week who are allowing 4.8 ypc to teams that average 4.4 ypc and so they may have the opportunity to establish some sort of run game. On the other side San Diego comes into this game off of a 20-28 home loss to division rival Denver in a game where they trailed 28-6 but forged a second half rally to pull close. San Diego had their opportunities but could only generate two field goals and missed a third in the first half while the Broncos were able to score touchdowns with their possessions. Adjusted season numbers show the Chargers to be an excellent passing team (289 yards at 7.6 yps against teams that allow 255 yards at 6.7 yps) but a terrible team defending the pass (allowing 281 yards at 7.5 yps to teams that average 248 yards at 6.4 yps). I have situations that go both ways here but my model favors the Chargers (-5.0) so I will lean their way.
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Minnesota (+12) 19 SEATTLE 28FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota comes into this game off of a 34-27 home win versus the Redskins last Thursday night in a game where they were outgained 309 at 6.2 yppl to 433 yards at 5.6 yppl. The Vikings held Washington out of the end zone late to seal the victory and have now had a mini-bye to prepare for the Seahawks in Seattle. The Vikings have been good rushing the ball once again this year averaging 4.8 ypr to teams that allow 4.4 ypr and face a team in the Seahawks that have been below average stopping the run (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that average 4.1 ypr). Otherwise, their passing offense has not been good in generating 206 yards at 5.7 yps to teams that allow 246 yards at 6.4 yps). Defensively they have had to deal with multiple injuries in their secondary and have been below average in allowing 401 yards at 5.7 yppl to teams that gain 360 yards at 5.6 yppl. On the other side, Seattle has been very good on offense as they have gained 364 yards at 6.0 yppl against teams that allow 338 yards at 5.4 yppl. It looks like the Seahawks will be getting back several starters along the offensive line and WR Percy Harvin may make his first appearance of the season so the Seattle offense should play well. I don’t have any situations in play but based on my model (Seattle -10.4) and the fact that Seattle may be looking forward to their bye next week I will offer a weak lean on the Vikings plus the points.

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Packers / Giants Under 41FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Packers have been an under team this year even with Aaron Rodgers at QB, going under in five of their last six games. Today, they have Scott Tolzien, who was on the practice squad two weeks ago, under center, which means they don't want to push the pace. They will be very happy to run Eddie Lacy between the tackles all day and keep the clock running.
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The Giants, meanwhile, can't trust Eli Manning to lead the way since he has the third-worst QB rating in the league, ahead of only Brandon Weeden and Josh Freeman, neither of whom are starting QBs any more. In the last seven weeks they have scored more than 21 points on just two occasions.
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In a contest that is expected to be tight, look for both coaches to play it close to the vest and keep the game out of their quarterbacks' hands. Add in a cold and windy late afternoon kick-off and all the ingredients are there for a dead under.

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Packers / Giants Under 42.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tom Coughlin is a future Hall of Fame coach. We respect him so much that we placed a small bet on the Giants to win the NFC East at +1500 immediately after they won their first game over the Vikings to get to 1-6 on the season. The following week our Divisional Game of the Year was on NY +6 over Philadelphia. The NFC East is weak -- 8-8 might win it. In addition, the Giants are a very streaky team and the Cowboys are choke artists. We still have a long way to go, but right now the Giants are only +500 to win the division. The Giants host the Cowboys in week 12 and this, of course, is a crucial match-up - especially if they win here to get to 4-6.
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For all these reasons, we like the Giants to feature their defense and their running game against this dragon with its head cut off. Without Rogers, we expect the Packers to turn this into a battle of field position with their two running backs. The clock should be running most of the time in this one. Couglin has to be thinking that 20 points will be enough to win, especially as they have wins of 15-7 and 23-7 in two of their last three games.
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The actual data reveals that the Giants are 0-21 OU (-10.26 ppg) the week after a win at home in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. When you read this one, you should say something like, "Duh, of course." When they Giants win a game by rushing the ball down their opponent's throat, they do not tend to switch tactics. This should be especially true vs a Packers team without Aaron Rogers.
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In their last two games in this spot, they won 26-3 in San Francisco and 15-7 over the Eagles, with their defense allowing a total of 3 points.
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Also, NY is 0-11 OU as a favorite after a home win in which they were losing at the half and 0-7 OU when they are off a game in which they recorded at least four QB sacks and allowed at least ten points.
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It doesn't make a lot of sense to quote trends in past performance for the Packers past on recent results because those trends were developed with Rogers at QB. Nonetheless, we will mention that the Packers are 0-6 OU (-14.08 ppg) on the road when they played at home in each of the previous two weeks. The reason for this is a more conservative game strategy on the road than at home. We do expect a conservative strategy from the Packers because they do not want to make this a Manning vs Tolzien duel. The UNDER is the play.

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New York Jets at Buffalo BillsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York JetsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Another matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions, and we don?t have to lay points to boot. Granted the Bills will be out to avenge a 27-20 loss at New York on Week Three of this season, but the Jets managed a season-high 513 yards in that contest despite losing the turnovers, 2-0. Today cross-dresser, Rex Ryan, shows up in one of his top roles, namely as a small dog where he is 12-6 SUATS in his NFL career when taking less than 4 points. The Flyboys also arrive off a Bye Week toting a 7-1 ATS record as dogs with rest. On the flip side, the good news for the bad news Bills is their 5-0 ATS record of late in division revengers, but an 0-4 SUATS mark in games after Steelers skirmishes neuters that thought. Thus, with the league now 12-35-2 ATS as a favorite in games after tackling Mike Tomlin?s Steelers, we?ll reserve a seat on this Jet plane today. We recommend a 1-unit play in the NY Jets.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Cardinals -8

The Jaguars have been an easy team to fade this season. They are 1-8 overall and 2-7 against the spread. I think their win last week was due in large part to Tennessee looking past the Jaguars in preparation for this week’s division matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The Cardinals defense has been solid this year allowing just 22 points per game, and they will face a Jaguars team scoring a mere 12.8 points per game overall.

Surprising the Jaguars offense performs even worse when they are playing at home. Jacksonville is scoring a mere 3.7 points per game in their three home games and nothing seems to be going right for them. They average a mere 63 rushing yards per game and have completed 54.1% of their pass attempts for 182 passing yards. In last week’s win over Tennessee Jacksonville had just 214 yards of offense, and there is no way they can keep the game close against a team like the Cardinals who have a very stingy red zone defense.

Steve Merril

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -6

Cleveland and Cincinnati meet for the second time this season. The Browns won the first meeting 17-6 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Browns are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road while the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. The Browns’ offense has struggled all season as they’ve had rotating quarterbacks all year. Journeyman Jason Campbell is the current starter under center, but he inspires little confidence and he’s also dealing with bruised ribs. Cleveland has beaten one winning team (Bengals) and the combined record of the teams they beat in their other three games is just 9-19. Against the two winning teams they faced on the road, the Browns lost by a combined score of 54-30. Cleveland’s offense is averaging just 19.1 points and 316.8 yards of offense per game. The Browns can’t throw the ball as they are averaging a terrible 5.7 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #29 in the NFL. Cleveland can’t extend drives either as they are converting on just 33.3% of their third downs; that ranks them #28 in the league.

Cincinnati returns home off back-to-back road losses in overtime. Their offense played terribly in both games as they scored just 20 points in Miami and just 17 points in Baltimore last week. And considering they scored just 6 points on the Browns in the first meeting, many may think the Bengals’ offense will struggle once again in this game. But we expect the exact opposite. That early loss to Cleveland was forgivable as the Bengals were in a flat spot off back-to-back wins over the Steelers and Packers. This game will get Cincinnati’s full attention and they’ll be ready for a peak performance. The Bengals’ defense has been rock solid this season. Cincinnati is allowing just 18.6 points per game while holding opponents to only 311.4 yards of total offense per game. Cincinnati is giving up 4.7 yards per play (#3) and 5.6 yards per pass attempt (#3). Those numbers are strong, and the struggling Browns’ offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently in this game. Cleveland has been dreadful on the road recently as they are just 2-16 SU their last 18 games away from home. We’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon as we expect them to win by a comfortable margin.