Red Dog Sports
Portland Trailblazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Olay: Toronto Raptors -2
This game takes place at 1pm eastern on Sunday. The Raptors won 102-79 last year when these two met in Canada (January 2013). Portland is off to a nice start led by Damien Lilliard and Lamarcus Aldredge. Toronto just defeated Memphis at home by double digits. Our free play is on Toronto in this early start on Sunday afternoon.
Joseph D'Amico
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3-120
Can you say REVENGE? The Saints, without Sean Payton lost, 31-21 to the 49ers in the Superdome last year. San Fran is banged up but reports say that Davis and Reid will play here. The key in this one is the Payton/Brees streak of 14 straight wins and covers at home, together. If you look at the 9ers schedule closely, San Fran lost to Seattle and Indy then beat 5 subpar teams before last week's 10-9 loss to Carolina. A game in which they managed a mere 46 passing yards. New Orleans blew up Dallas, 49-17 and come in here with confidence, playing at home, and with a vendetta… The hook bothers me so shop around or buy it down. Guys, take the Saints here.
Bill Biles
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3
The Saints at home are dominate. They can score points in so many different ways. Coming off a franchise record game vs the Cowboys, I expect the Saints to continue its great play in this one and get another home victory.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Washington Redskins +4½
The Eagles are soaring as they have re-entered the NFL playoff chase and they are looking to deal the Redskins a deadly blow and sweep the season series as they 'upset Washington in the opening week. Nick Foles has secured the job at quarterback with 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions. That won't last forever! Don't get me wrong I believe he should have been the starter from the word 'go', but we all have our days good and bad and he's ready to stub his toe. Washington must return to basics and pound the football with Alfred Morris. As the rolls have changed since the opener the winner will too. In a mild surprise it's the REDSKINS!
Steve Janus
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1
The Buccaneers backed up their strong performance on the road against the Seahawks with a shocking 22-19 win at home over the Dolphins. Tampa Bay may have one of the worst records in the league, but they certainly aren’t playing like it right now. This team has found new belief in head coach Greg Schiano and a big reason for their turnaround has been the play of rookie quarterback Mike Glennon.
This is the time of the season where the Buccaneers have typically been flying under the radar. Tampa Bay is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of November (perfect 2-0 in 2013). Atlanta on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. The Falcons are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 overall and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs the NFC South..
The loss of James certainly hurts, but you have to be impressed with the way Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey stepped up in his absence. The two combined for 102 yards and a touchdown on the ground and added 3 receptions for 27 yards. Glennon, Leonard and Rainey will have a great opportunity to showcase their talents against the awful excuse for a defense that the Falcons send out to the field. Atlanta ranks 25th in the league against the pass (252.0 ypg) and 27th against the run (126.8 ypg). Their run defense has been especially bad here of late, as they have allowed a staggering 181.0 ypg on the ground over their last three games. That’s not only a sign of a bad defense, but a team that isn’t giving it their all.
You could make the argument that the Bucs are primed for a letdown, but at the same time this team is sick of losing and could smell blood with the way Atlanta has been playing. The Falcons aren’t exactly familiar with having to simply finish out the season with nothing to play for. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they came out flat on the road after getting physically dominated last week by the Seahawks.
While the Falcons still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Matt Ryan, he’s found out what life is like not having a dominant receiving corps and running game at his disposal. With Tampa Bay ranking 5th in the league against the run (95.8 ypg), there’s a good chance Ryan will be forced to carry the offense with his arm. That could be a problem. Atlanta has already lost Julio Jones to a season ending injury and may be without Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas, who are all listed as questionable.
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Washington vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Though the Philadelphia Eagles are due to win a home game some time (lost 10 straight, 0-11 ATS L11!), I'm not convinced it will be here as a desperate Redskins team comes to town off a long week after losing 34-27 up in Minnesota last Thursday. This is a revenge game for the visitors as well after being humiliated in Week 1.
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When these teams opened the regular season against one another, Chip Kelly's offense humilated the Washington defense and the game was not as close as the 33-27 final score indicates. It was also Mike Vick at QB, not Nick Foles, who admittedly has been beyond impressive the last two games. But those games came against Oakland and a depleted Green Bay team. In his previous home game, Foles looked terrible, a 17-3 loss to Dallas. Kelly's vaunted offense has managed just 10 points in the last two home games and 26 the last three.
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It really is unusual to see an NFL team on a losing streak of this magnitude. But even if the Eagles were to snap this 10-game losing skid at Lincoln Financial Field, it doesn't necessarily mean that they will cover. I like how the number has been bet up. Washington has the advantage of coming off the Thursday game, which has typically served teams well this season. Remember that the 'Skins were 3-6 SU last year and wound up winning the division. Given the current state of the NFC East, a repeat of that scenario is not out of the question.
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cleveland Browns +6
Cleveland has been better than expected with J. Campbell at them helm and today they are catch the Bengals in some unfavorable situations. For one home favorites off a road overtime loss have been long term money burners and they are 2-7 ats since 2010 in that role. Home teams off a road loss by 3 or less points have failed to cover 24 of 29 times if they are over .500 but less than .625 on the season. This game has the feel of a closely contested grind it out type of game and there is a strong chance of rain in this one which would favor a Cleveland team that will look to establish the run game and keep the ball out of the hands of the Bengals receivers. The Browns handled the Bengals 17-6 at home earlier in the season. We will take the points in this one. What can Brown do for you? They can cover the spread here today. On Sunday there is a 6* Early total and 3 Big System Sides. In Afternoon action a 21-0 Total followed by the Sunday night Power System side. Saturday card cashes big.Jump on and end your week big. For the free play take Cleveland plus the points. RV
Teddy Covers
Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
I don’t lay double digits in an NFL game very often. But we’ve got strong ‘bet-on’ elements for the Seahawks this week that correlate very well with the ‘bet against’ elements in play for the Vikings; making this ‘inflated’ pointspread look rather cheap to this bettor!
Seattle’s home field edge is the strongest in the NFL. The numbers don’t lie. The Seahawks are 16-0 SU, 13-3 ATS in 16 games at Qwest Field since the start of the 2012 preseason. Even when they came out as flat as a pancake in their last home game, outscored 21-0 early by the Bucs, Seattle found a way to rally and win. And frankly, I’m not expecting another flat effort here.
The Seahawks solved their offensive line woes in their win at Atlanta last week, and should have pro bowl left tackle Russell Okung back in the lineup here. They are also expected to get top playmaker Percy Harvin back to make his season debut against his former squad; giving Russell Wilson one more weapon to throw to. The Vikings defense hasn’t stopped a well balanced attack all year; allowing 27+ in eight of their previous nine games.
Minnesota’s top offensive weapons are all banged up. Adrian Peterson has a bad groin; Christian Ponder has a bum shoulder and nobody on the team has 500 receiving yards yet; a squad with only eight receiving touchdowns all year. The Vikings lost 35-10 in their first game following their first win of the season, and I’m not expecting their first game following their second win to be any better. Take the Seahawks.
Larry Ness
Washington vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Washington
The Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to take over first-place in the NFC East by beating the Redskins on Sunday, but in order to accomplish that, Philly must end a franchise-worst 10-game home losing skid (0-10 ATS). The Eagles last won at home back on Sep 30, 2012, beating the Giants 19-17. Philly’s home woes defy description but do you really want to guess just when Philly will break through at home for a win?
The Redskins sit at 3-6 and incredibly, a win would leave them at 4-6, just one game back of Dallas (5-5) and a half-game back of the Eagles (5-6). Washington is hopeful that history will repeat itself here in 2013, as in 2012, the Redskins returned from a bye week at 3-6 and ended the season on a seven-game winning streak (also 7-0 ATS), capturing the NFC East title for the first time since 1999. Washington’s not off a bye here, but rather a 34-27 Thursday night loss in Week 10 at Minnesota, a game the ‘Skins basically ‘handed’ to the Vikings.
Nick Foles will start at QB for the third straight week. He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games, posting a remarkable passer rating of 155.3, including a perfect 158.3 on Nov 3 at Oakland, when he tied an NFL single-game record with seven TD passes.. His QB rating of 132.5 would be the highest in the league, if he had the requisite 14 passing attempts per team game. His 136 attempts fall four short of the qualifying number. Foles' 16 TD passes are tied for eighth in the league, despite making just four starts. He's yet to throw an interception.
However, Foles is 0-4 as a starter at home, and the Eagles have lost all SIX home games he's played in over his career, in which he's thrown three TDs and three INTs with a QB rating of 73.8. His career QB rating on the road is 113.4. What is it with the Eagles when they are playing at home, these last two seasons? Again, I don’t know, but do I really want to “buck the trend?” Michael Vick was the QB when the Eagles opened the season Sept 9 with a 33-27 win at Washington, but Foles started both losses to the Redskins last year, including the last meeting in Philadelphia, a 27-20 defeat Dec 23, 2012.
Will Rogers
San Francisco vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
While NFL Week 10 (did win Monday Night!) certainly did not go as well for Will Rogers as he'd hoped (Will did go 6-2 in Wk 9!), that's not stopping "The Coach" from attacking the Wk 11 card w/ a VENGEANCE.
I played the Saints last week at home versus Dallas, and they set an NFL record with 40 first downs, and went on to win 49-17. New Orleans hasn't just won all it's home games, the Saints have dominated at the Superdome, winning by an average margin of over 17 points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1: Previous History - The Saints struggled last season without head coach Sean Payton, and they lost both meetings with the 49ers. San Francisco had lost six straight versus New Orleans prior to last year, dating back to 2002.
2: Saints Defense - San Francisco really struggled offensively last week against Carolina, and it's not going to get any easier in New Orleans. The Saints haven't allowed more than 17 points in any of their home games this year, and they are allowing opponents to average fewer than 200 yards passing per game.
3: X-Factor - Colin Kaepernick looked awful last week, completing just 11-of-22 passes for less than 100 yards with no touchdowns and an INT.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers +3
The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up a huge 23-10 home win over Buffalo last week in a dominant effort to keep themselves alive in the AFC North race. That effort showed that this team isn’t ready to pack it in just yet. There’s no question that they are better than their 3-6 record would indicate, and if they can shore up the turnovers, they can be a real scary opponent the rest of the way for anyone who crosses their path.
Outside of a poor effort against New England, Pittsburgh’s defense has been tremendous in 2013. In fact, it has allowed less than 300 yards in six of its nine games in 2013. That includes last week against Buffalo, in which it gave up just 227 total yards in the 13-point victory. When you can play that kind of defense, you certainly have a chance to win in this league. The offense has been better ever since Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell returned, too.
Even with the 610 yards given up in one game against New England, Pittsburgh ranks 11th in the league in total defense at 328.6 yards per game. There is no question that it is the better team on this side of the football heading into this game with Detroit.
The Lions are allowing 24.0 points and 376.2 yards per game to rank 24th in the league in total defense. They have just managed to win many close games this year due to their offense, which has masked their poor defense.
This could also be a big letdown spot for Detroit off its 21-19 win at Chicago last week, which put it in first place in the NFC North. It's going to be hard for the Lions to get mentally ready to step back outside the division and into a different conference against a hungry Pittsburgh team that is in a must-win situation.
Detroit is 0-8 against the spread vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh is 6-0 against the spread in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more total yards per game over the last three years.
The Lions are 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Detroit is 7-20 against the number its last 27 road games following two or more consecutive wins. The Lions are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games after having won three of their past four games over the last three seasons. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
Red Dog Sports
Florida Atlantic vs. Boston College
Play: Florida Atlantic +16½
Take FAU +16.5 as our free pick. Boston College has started 0-3 and is without Lonnie Jackson. They do have some solid talent like Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson. FAU is an average team that is well coached on the defensive side by Mike Jarvis. BC is a better play as an underdog but not as a prohibitive favorite. Take the Owls plus the points on Sunday.
Dave Price
Washington Redskins +4.5
The Redskins were sitting at 3-6 last season and then went on to win seven in a row and the NFC East. This little piece of recent history, and the fact they are sitting just two games back in the division standings, assures they aren't about to pack it in. Philly hasn't been able to defend its home field to save its lives. The Eagles are 0-10 in their last 10 home games. In addition, Philly hasn't won by more than two points in its last 12 home games. It is 0-11-1 ATS during this stretch. You want to back road teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent if they check in off a road defeat. That's because doing so has produced a 72-31 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take the points.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland at Gonzaga
Pick: Gonzaga
Early indicators from Spokane are that Gonzaga is not going to miss Kelly Olynyk all that much, with several experienced deadeyes remaining in backcourt and plenty of size up front with 6-9 Sam Dower and 7-1 Polish soph Przemek Karnowski forming a menacing quintet. Zag bombers connected on 14 triples (8 by G Gary Bell) in Nov. 11 romp past Colorado. Oakland not ducking anybody (already a loser at North Carolina & UCLA), but Greg Kampe’s squad demonstrating a real suicidal resolve by refusing to slow pace, inviting real problems at McCarthey Center.
Joe Gavazzi
Washington +4.5
Who can forget week 1 of MNF when the Eagles held off the Redskins 33-27 in a shootout? With QB Foles off consecutive superstar performances, and RGIII looking better by the week, a shootout could be in the offing once again. Since their 1-3 SU start, the Eagles have gone 4-2 ATS, covering by 43 points, with a +5 net turnover margin. But their failures at home have continued this season; Philly is 0-4 SU ATS at home, failing to cover by 54 points, with a -7 net TO margin. That runs their winless streak on this field to 0-12 SU ATS. That fits hand in glove with the Skins' 7-2 ATS series site record and the fact that NFC East divisional road dogs are now 37-17 ATS. Each of these teams are among the best at running the football, with each rushing an average of 30 or more times a game for over 150 yards and over 5.0 YPR. As a result, must favor point spread history with the road underdog.