Andy Iskoe
Miami +2
Miami is off of Monday night's loss at Tampa Bay which was played amid the turmoil stemming from the much publicized lockerroom "bullying"" issues that dominated headlines for much of the prior week. Often those issues become less of a distraction as time marches forward. San Diego was outplayed early in its loss to Denver but did mount a rally in the second half that came up short. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chargers who are making their third cross country trip in their last four games and play east of the Mississippi for the fifth time this season!. And they are at Division rival Kansas City next week. Who did they anger on the NFL's scheduling committee? That is somewhat offset by Miami's shorter week of preparation. Miami's defense has been respectable, allowing over 27 points just once. And they will face a defense last in the league in forcing turnovers and one that ranks #29 overall. With the distractions largely behind them, the preparation and focus returns to football.
Dave Essler
Towson +12
Towson is still under the radar here. I simply love what Villanova is doing and their prospects going forward, but this is just too many points. They haven't been tested yet, and what struck me is that in their last game they only went to the line 17 times against Mt. St. Marys, and only made ten of them. Those things tend to be contagious. They're not the best three point defending team (which is what Kent will do) and they play a slow enough pace that Kent should always be in striking distance. Kents' got a game against Kansas coming up, but Kent is simply not good enough to call that a look-ahead, by any means. In fact, I would think max effort would be in THIS game, knowing they'll likely lose badly to Kansas, or at least lose. Towson HAS been getting to the line AND shooting 71%, which we obviously like. Towson is super-experienced, and that comeback win against Temple is a confidence-builder and a springboard here. I doubt that on a Sunday afternoon against Towson the Villanova crowd will be too much of a factor, so I've simply got to take the points here.
Charlie Scott
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta is just so beat up due to injuries this isn't the Falcon Team we're used to seeing in Seasons past. While Tampa is playing like we expected the facts are they play good defense and can run the ball well on offense , plus they play physical and haven't quit and compete for the whole game. Last week we had Seattle vs Atlanta and watched the SeaHawks push Atlanta around, I believe Tampa can do the same Today !
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego -1 over MIAMI
The Chargers are in a good spot here. They are 4-5 but they are also only one game out of Wild-Card contention and after consecutive losses their stock has decreased. However, the Chargers lost by just eight to the Broncos last week and held that explosive offensive to 28 points. Prior to its bye week, San Diego also held the Colts to nine points. They also had prevented all running backs from scoring until week nine and that’s a big problem for the Fish because Miami is not good enough to be a passing team. What we know for sure is that we get the better offense and QB here and it’s in no way a letdown spot for the Chargers after two straight losses. The Chargers offense has been putting up good numbers the entire year and there’s no reason to believe that will change here.
In a highly emotional game last week during the Ritchie Incognito distraction, the Dolphins fell behind 15-0 to the Bucs before rallying to take a lead. But in the end there was literally zero rushing offense and the offensive line problems gave up two critical sacks in the final drive. Losing to the Bucs was just a sign of the turning point the Fins have encountered and now the hangover begins. Remember when the Dolphins were 3-0 and riding high? Now they’ve got the left side of their offensive line preparing multi-million-dollar lawsuits and they got smacked around by the fourth best team in the State of Florida Monday night. Laces out, Danny Boy! This season is going into Snowflake’s tank and the water’s deep, too. The lingering effect of Monday’s loss to the Bucs plus all the other BS that has surrounded this team over the past two weeks will be felt in this one and will rear its ugly head on the playing field.
CAROLINA -3 over New England
We’re posting this one today to give you an opportunity to buy at the best number. You may even find a -2½ if you play it today. Tomorrow, there will be no 2½’s left. We’re suggesting this is a huge underlay. Against any other team on the same talent level as the Patriots, Carolina would be double the price (-6) here. The Panthers are on a five game winning streak and while many of those wins came against bottom-feeders, winning in San Francisco was impressive and put a stamp of legitimacy to what the Panthers have been accomplishing. And it’s not like they have just been getting by those bottom feeders. They have torched them all. The Panthers can beat you in so many ways. They can run, they can pass, they have a running QB that can ran or pass and they have perhaps the top defense in the NFL. The Panthers are a legit Super Bowl contender and now they get to strut their stuff in a rare home game on Monday Night Football. The only thing that will prevent them from winning here is being a little too jacked up. If the Panthers come in even-keeled they should have little trouble disposing of a very average Patriot team.
New England is 0-4 ATS the spread and 1-3 straight up following their bye week over the past four seasons. Playing on Monday Night Football or on Sunday night is old school for the Patriots so it’s nothing new to get excited about. The Patriots just gave up 31 points to the Steelers. The week before, they were down 14-0 at home to the Dolphins. The week before that they lost to the Jets. New England has a 2-point win over Buffalo, a 3-point win over the Jets, a 7-point win over Atlanta and another absolute miracle win over the Saints. The Patriots have played perhaps the NFL’s easiest schedule to date against a slew of teams with QB issues. When facing Matty Ice and Drew Brees, the only two consistent QB’s they have faced this season, the Pats defense was torched. They were also torched by Big Ben last week. Lastly, the Patriots have the Broncos on deck in New England next week on Sunday night in another Peyton Manning/Tom Brady classic. The situation, the talent, home field and current form all favor the better squad and we’re as a result, we’re happy to lay this cheap price.
BUFFALO +111 over N.Y Jets
The Jets have two impressive wins over the past three weeks over New England and New Orleans while the Bills were just steamrolled by New Orleans three weeks ago. Buffalo also lost by 13 last week to the Steelers. The Jets’ stock is soaring while the Bills’ stock is sinking and that is usually the worst time to step in on a road favorite. Let us point out that those two aforementioned New York victories came at home. On the road, the Jets have one win in four tries. The Jets road losses include a 38-13 beat-down in Tennessee and a disturbing 49-9 loss at Cincinnati. This is still a very young team that wasn’t projected to win five games the entire season. We’ve seen big letdowns from the Jets after big victories and that’s the situation they face again here.
All week we’ve been reading how banged up the Bills are. That’s true, as both Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods are just two key players among others that won’t suit up. The team is not in good form but you can throw all of that out the window because at Ralph Stadium, the Bills are tough as shoe leather. When we look at the Bills home schedule we see victories over Carolina and Baltimore. The Bills three home losses occurred against New England by 2 points (a miracle win by the Pats), a three-point loss to Cinci and a 10-point loss to Kansas City. In fact, it’s not a stretch to suggest the Bills should be 5-0 at home. Buffalo was in a strong position to win all of those home games and today’s opponent is without question the easiest one yet. Bills outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Saskatchewan +4½ over CALGARY
We’re rarely in favor of spotting any points to the team that has already won a playoff game. History tells us that the two teams that win their respective divisions rarely go on to meet in the Grey Cup game. With a nothing game to end the season, the Stampeders have essentially been off for three weeks. Indeed, many of them played in the season finale against B.C. but psychologically the game didn’t mean a thing. Coming out of the gate today, the Stamps may not be as sharp as the Riders, who played a great game in difficult weather conditions last week against the Lions.
The Riders have an edge at QB with the mobile Darian Durant being able to move the chains better than the immobile Kevin Glenn. Glenn’s numbers were not all that great as he threw for just 2,710 yards and 18 touchdowns and will once again rely heavily on Jon Cornish to do damage. That’s not a bad game plan at all, as Cornish once again put up staggering numbers this season but the Riders have a great RB also in Kory Sheets that is in fine form at the moment. So, too is Durant, who completed 19 of 23 passes on an extremely windy day in Saskatchewan last week. Durant was also able to run on some key second down and long situations to keep the chains moving. When you break it all down this one sets up to be a close game throughout. Both teams are capable of defeating the other. The big difference however, is that the Riders should be sharper after last week’s effort against a very game Lions squad. One has to figure that the Riders have a 50% chance of winning this game but in this case, we’re receiving 4½ big points and that could certainly be the difference between cashing a ticket and ripping one up.
DAVE COKIN
GREEN BAY PACKERS NEW YORK GIANTS
PLAY: GREEN BAY PACKERS +4
Two teams in trouble kick if off today in New Jersey at the Packers take on the Giants. It’s by no means the end of the line for the loser as anything can happen down the stretch in the NFL. We should all know that by now. But make no mistake, this qualifies as a big game for each of these squads.
Green Bay is having to make do without Aaron Rodgers, and there’s not a chance in the world I’m going to waste space trying to build a case for Scott Tolzien. It’s the first start of his career, there’s loads of pressure and I won’t pretend I’m expecting very much.
As for the Giants, they have some positive momentum. The 3-6 ledger is unattractive, but they’re on a 3-0 run and there is some history of Tom Coughlin putting together some huge winning streaks with this franchise.
I think all of what I just wrote is obvious. It’s not easy to build a case for a Green Bay team with a #3 QB who has never started an NFL game, and that also isn’t a very good team defensively.
So I’ll opt to make a case against the Giants, who I believe to be a bad team. The three wins have without a doubt bolstered them mentally. But I’m looking at those three wins and coming away very unimpressed. The initial win against Minnesota was one of the ugliest football games I’ve ever seen. They shut down the Eagles in Philly, but never got in the end zone themselves in a 15-7 win. Last week, they needed to rally to get past a mediocre Oakland team. In other words, I’m not buying much about this modest win streak.
What it boils down to for me is that I’m convinced that, while they aren’t nearly as dangerous minus Rodgers, Green Bay is still very simply a better football team than the Giants. I felt the opening line on this game was considerably too high, and so apparently did the bigger money bettors who drove it down to the present -4. I know there’s always the danger to inexperienced backup makes the big blunder at some point that ruins this bet. But I also am convinced that if he can just manage the game and out together a couple of drives, this is a winnable game for Green Bay. I’ll bet on the latter scenario and will opt to grab the points with the Packers.
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Buffalo Bills +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets are coming off of their bye week after knocking off the Saints as a home underdog two weeks ago, but teams in this spot have not fared well. The last fourteen times teams have been in this spot they are 0-13-1 straight up. Buffalo has played extremely well at home this season led by a defense that is getting healthier and is already near the top of the league in both sacks and interceptions. Jets quarterback Geno Smith has not played as well on the road this year and Bills quarterback now has a game under his belt after returning from injury last week at Pittsburgh. Buffalo is 3-1 against the spread this season at home having covered against three teams with winning records (Patriots, Bengals and Panthers). There only non cover was fluke against the Chiefs who they outgained by 260 yards. Lay the points.
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Pittsburgh Steelers +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh is having a very bad season by their high standards, but this is a pretty good spot to back the Men of Steel. Detroit is a team that I still can trust laying points on the road. They historically don't play as well outdoors and they don't often make the trip to play at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh's defense is not what it used to be but pass defense is still their strength which and they match up about as well as you can with Megatron and company. On offense Pittsburgh now has a run game that you at least must respect with rookie LeVon Bell in the backfield and this will allow Big Ben and company to attack a Detroit secondary that is 28th in the NFL in pass defense. The Lions will get their sacks, but the Steelers will make some big plays in the passing game. Take the points.
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Washington Redskins +4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The first matchup between these two teams was in week one on Monday Night Football as the Eagles unleashed Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense and hammered the Skins in Washington. The second time around the Redskins coaching staff now has plenty of film to help make those defense adjustments. The Giants cut the yardage that they allowed to the Eagles in their first meeting in half the second time they met. Offensively the Redskins have been able to get their running game going and wide receiver Pierre Garcon has been making huge plays. The Eagles led by quarterback Nick Foles are coming off of back to back road wins against the Raiders and Packers, but they are fade material has a home favorite. The Philly defense has played very well lately, but RGIII is playing much more like his old self this time around. Take the points.
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Redskins at EaglesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick Over 52FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It's a rematch of a week one blitzkrieg that Philadelphia put on the Redskins. This time they move to Philly where the Eagles just can't seem to win. It is incredible to see this offense managed only 14 points per game at home considering the numbers they put up on the road. Philadelphia has scored 76 points in their last two games beating the Raiders and Packers. They'll face a Washington defense that has allowed 24 points or more in five straight games. It's a good thing that the Redskins can score or else their record would be much worse then it already is. RG3 has put together a couple of good games as of late to go along with a running game that is starting to get going too. The Eagles have allowed only one 100 yard rusher all season long, but they are towards the bottom in most passing yards allowed. Week one it was a 33-27 Eagles victory with the Eagles starting fast and the Skins nearly completing the comeback. This one should be a bit high scoring. Neither defense is in great form.
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Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles LakersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles LakersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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You need to pick and choose when you are going to play on the Lakers. Without Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash you are relying on lots of young players with LA. However, Kobe has returned to practice and this has energized the team. Kobe is close to returning and said if this was a playoff game he'd be playing. This gives a big lift emotionally to the Lakers. Even without Kobe, they are showing they are tough at home. They played right with Memphis for the entire game on Friday night before losing by three and pushing the cover. The Pistons finish up their modest four game road trip tonight in LA. Detroit is 1-2 on the trip after winning at Sacramento on Friday. That win over the Kings was their first road win in four tries. Which is kind of surprising that they are a small favorite here. The Lakers hung tough with Memphis, beat the Pelicans, Hawks and Clippers all at home. Not sure if Detroit is better than any of those clubs. Moreover, Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to the Staples Center. You have to pick those spots to play the Lakers and tonight is one of them, especially with the team having a boost of energy from Kobe being on the practice floor.
Magic Mike
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Play: Atlanta
Noteworthy trend(s): Since 1992, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have played against each other a total of 14 times in sunny Tampa, Fla. The Falcons and Buccaneers are 7-7 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS) in these same games. However, Atlantas franchise QB (Matt Ryan) is 8-3 (SU) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since he started playing for Atlanta in 2008. Matty Ice typically finds ways to win, against Tampa, and is clutch in crunch time as the Falcons have won five of the above mentioned eight games by a touchdown or less (three games by a field goal or less). Proof in the pudding is the week 7 31-23 Atlanta victory over Tampa Bay when Ryan played without what seemed to be half of the Atlanta Falcons starters on offense.
Noteworthy trend(s): The game opened with Tampa Bay being a 2 point underdog to Atlanta. As of this writing, the line is fluctuating with the Bucs being a 1 point favorite to a 1 point underdog. However, the Buccaneers are a poor (HOME) cover team any way you want to view them. Since 2009, Tampa Bay is 10-24-1, overall at home, vs. the spread. Additionally, the Buccaneers are 5-16 as a home dog given the above scenario. On the flip side, Atlanta has been a solid road play, overall, since 2009. The Falcons posted a respectable 20-13 (ATS) record in (AWAY) games played between the 2009 2012 seasons. The Falcons have recently fallen on hard times, this season, and are 0-4 both (SU) and (ATS) as a road team.
Intangible factor(s): Tampa Bay has struggled offensively this season and will now be playing without their starting running back (Doug Martin) and the backup RB (Mike James) who were both recently placed on season ending IR. The Bucs are scoring a meager 16 points per game and have a rookie QB (Mike Glennon) running the offense since the release of Josh Freeman earlier this season. The Bucs rank 31st (overall) on offense in yards gained and only above the Jacksonville Jaguars. ich a third come from their ground game. Atlantas offense ranks in the middle, overall, compared to other league teams mainly due to their 32nd ranked rushing attack. The return of a healthy Steven Jackson to Atlantas starting backfield should bode well for the Falcons to run a more balanced offensive game plan. Jackson, Atlantas former Pro Bowl RB, has been dealing with hamstring / toe problems this season but appears to be relatively healthy for the game against Tampa Bay. Additionally, Jackson has posted some good games against Tampa Bay including running for over 100 yards in recent outings. Look for Ryan to incorporate a short passing game plan and utilize Tony Gonzalez extensively. Tony G. is also nursing a toe injury and is questionable for the game. Gonzalez is a big time player and should have a big role in helping Ryan deal with Tampas pass rush. The return of LB Sean Weatherspoon to the starting lineup will shore up Atlantas defense. MJM is taking the Atlanta Falcons in this game. These two teams typically play in close scoring contests and thats where the Falcons have a definitive edge. I like the Falcons and their chances to win, late in a game, with QB Matt Ryan over the Buccaneers needing to depend upon a rookie QB to lead them to a win. Go with the Falcons to post their first (SU) and (ATS) road victory of the season.
Bill Milton
Minnesota at Seattle
Play: Minnesota
Vikings are better than most give them credit for, and with Adrian Peterson healthy and Christian Ponder at QB, feeling is that they can hang within this number. Note that before beating up on an ailing Falcons team last week the Seachickens had dropped four of five ATS (three as double digit chalk like today) and also note that big favs before a bye are on a 4-7 ATS run. Finally, note that despite all of Minnesota's efforts to replace him, Ponder is 5-5 SU and 7-3 as a starter the last two years for the Purple. We will take the points here.
Charlie Sports
Baltimore Ravens +4
The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens of the AFC North division will take on the 5-4 Chicago Bears of the NFC North division in 2013 NFL action. Baltimore is 4-0-1 Against The Spread their last 5 NFL road games vs. A team with a winning home record. The Chicago Bears are only 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 NFL games at home. Baltimore gets the road cover.
River City Sharps
San Diego
Pretty short and sweet here....this is a play against the Dolphins and the circus that surrounds their organization right now. Couple that with the fact that San Diego has been very good traveling to the East Coast this season, going 4-1 ATS so far this season. The Dolphins have a weak pass defense that is ranked 25th in the league and we fully expect Rivers to expose that weakness, along with the Chargers defense getting plenty of pressure on Tanneyhill and the weakened Miami offensive line. Interesting stat: The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS off a MNF game. We like that to go to 1-7.
Carlos Salazar
Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +9
Carlos loves the points here with the home dog Jaguars. Arizona is coming across country and the Jaguars will have enough offense to get the cover. Take advantage of this bad line today and bet Jacksonville with confidence.
Tony Karpinski
NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +2½
The Buffalo Bills over the NY Jets. The Jets do not play well on the road, which is obvious by their pathetic performances this year so far. They do not score and their running game struggles drastically. TE Kellen Winslow is probable for the return in this game which will help out Geno Smith but the Bills defense is very under-rated. But it will still not be enough, Buffalo will take advantage of the rookie and his tendency to make mistakes and the defense of Buffalo is capable of creating turnovers and putting pressure on him, behind Aaron Williams and Jim Leonhard in particular. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home. And even with the newly signed Ed Reed, the Buffalo Bills take care of business here at home.