Tony Mathews
SF 49ers +3
A huge mistake sports players make, is picking teams based on how each team did in their last game. This strategy has you picking the Saints this week.
A huge key of picking winners in any sport, is finding what teams match-up well. This strategy has you picking the 49ers this week.
If there was one team in the NFL built to beat the Saints, it's the SF 49ers. On defense, the 49ers are strong. You need a strong defense if you are going to beat the Saints offense. On offense, the 49ers have a strong offensive line, which can pound the ball (control the clock), as well as open up the passing game. Those are the two keys a team needs to beat the Saints, and that is exactly what the 49ers have to offer!
Do you know the last team the Saints played with a solid defense and a strong offensive line? It was the New York Jets on 11/03/13. The New York Jets won that game by a score of 26-20.
Last season (around this time--11/25/12), the 49ers went into the Superdome and beat the Saints by a score of 31-21. We see the 49ers, once again, getting the against the spread win.
The Real Animal
New Orleans -3
I’ll take a shot w/ the Saints at home at this price. Drew Brees is completing 74.4 percent at the Superdome this year with an 18-2 ratio. The Saints are averaging 35.2 points and 464 yards a game in their comfortable confines. Needless to say New Orleans is peaking too. Last week 40 first downs and 625 yards against Dallas. The rushing attack had 242 yards-the most since 1990. Mark Ingram had his best game as a pro with 145 yards on 14 carries. Colin Kaepernick threw for 91 yards last week and was sacked a season-high six times against Carolina. I know the 49ers fall into the “quality team off a loss” theory but I find it impossible not to take the Saints at this cheap price in a building they rarely lose at. The 49ers just don’t have the weapons to match up with the Saints. Tight end Vernon Davis and rookie safety Eric Reed both had a concussion. Mario Manningham is just taking up space at this point. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team the last three seasons (75 percent wins or more). That’s what will limit me here on the Saints. But trumping that is the 17-1 ATS record the Saints have with Coach Payton stalking the sidelines at the Superdome.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Denver/ Kansas City Under 49.5: Cold, rainy weather doesn't always sit well with Peyton Manning and now he must play in that junk, on a gimpy ankle and vs the best scoring defense in the league, as the Chiefs have allowed just 12.3 ppg on the year. KC also has the type of QB, running game and offensive philosophy to play the ball control game and keep Manning on the sidelines. That is the way to beat this team and also a way to keep the game low scoring. The Chiefs defense is 1st in points allowed and they are 6th vs the pass, allowing just 208.4 ypg through the air, but they can be run on as they rank 24th in department and Manning and company should look to more of a ground game, especially if the waether conditions asre as they are supposed to and a that means more eating of the clock. If San Diego and Denver can't put up more than 48 points in better weather than this then how will these teams. KC's conservative nature and the weather should help keep this one in the low 40's at best.
Indianapolis/ Tennessee Over 42.5: The Colts scored just 8 points vs the Rams last week, but Andrew Luck still had 353 yards passing in the game, so it was turnovers that did them in. Prior to last week's game, the Colts had scored 63 points in their 2 previous games and they had hit 27 or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. This is still a very good offense, despite what happened last week. Now as far as their defense, they have been bad as they come in allowing 428 ypg and 31.7 ppg over their last 3 games. The Tennessee defense has also been roughed up a bit over their last 3 games, allowing 27 ppg over that stretch, and we note that those three games were vs weak offensive teams in Jacksonville, St Louis and San Fran. On offense the Titans will be without Locker, but Fitzpatrick has been solid this in his place this year and should be able to put up some points on this weak Colts defense. I know the Under is 13-3 the last 16 in this series, but with two weak defenses and 2 solid offenses we should be able to hit at leas 45 in this one.Yes
SEATTLE -12 over Minnesota: Last week the Seahawks got their swagger back a bit with a rout of Atlanta on the road. Now I know that Atlanta is not a good team this year, but is Minnesota any better than the Falcons? Uh, that's a resounding no. The Vikes are a mess at the QB spot and their defense is very week as they come in allowing 31 ppg on the year. Now they face a Seattle team that gets OL Okung back and most likely Percy Harvin as well. This team is getting very healthy right now and they are at home where they can just pound teams as they have won their home games by an average of 16 ppg this year so far. The defense is very stout for the Seahawks, especially at home, where they have allowed just 261.3 ypg and 14.3 ppg. I do not see the Vikes putting up much on this defense in this one. The Seahawks, though, will score plenty off of this weak Minnesota defense. Seattle by at least 17 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego -1 over MIAMI: Way too many distractions for Miami to win this game. Their team meetings and practices have been disrupted all week long as the Martin/ Incognito story is just taking it's toll on this team. San Diego is making another long trip across the country, but they have done so many tines this year and should be pretty used to it, plus we not that this is a 4:05 start time, which is their normal start time for games on the west coast. The Chargers have the better offense in this game and they still have a ton to play for, while Miami is fading and just won't come up with enough plays to take this game. San Diego will get this first win in Miami since 1982.
Pittsburgh/ Detroit Over 45.5: Yes the weather will be a factor, but that always doesn't mean low scoring games. AFC/ NFC games are on an 11-0 OVER run the last few weeks and these two teams have the offenses to keep it going. Pittsburgh has put up 54 points their last 2 games, after struggling on offense for much of the year. The Detroit offense has been solid all year, averaging 26.5 ppg. Neither defense has played great this year as both are allowing 24 ppg. I see the teams flirting with 50 points here.
CINCINNATI -5.5 over Cleveland: The Browns are 3-16-1 ATS from game 5 on out as dogs of 7 or less if they are off a SU dog win, including 0-8-1 ATS if vs a division opponent. Tough trend to buck. The Bengals are off a couple of tough road OT losses, but coming back home should get them refocused fr this one. The Browns are 2nd in the division so Cleveland needs this ne badly to put a little distance between themselves and their instate rivals. Look for a solid TD+ win by the Bengals here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Washington Over 52.5: The Eagle offense is playing very well right now as they have put up 76 points in their last 2 games. This Eagles offense should continue to roll vs a Washington defense that has allowed 31.9 ppg overall, including allowing 35 ppg in their last 5 games. This is a bad defense. On Offense, the Skins are starting to get in going as they have put up 30.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Eagle defense has shown some improvement of late, but haven't been facing very good offenses of late either. They still rank 31st in total defense and 31st vs the pass and did give up 27 points in their first game with the Skins. I expect no less than 57 points in this one.
Brady Kannon
Baltimore +3
By my numbers, the wrong team is favored in this game. The line reflects these teams being basically equal and I rate The Ravens as a better team than The Bears.. and in addition to this, the situation favors Baltimore as The Ravens are 4-and-0 ATS on the road after playing The Bengals. The Bears on the other hand are 1-10-and-1 ATS in their second straight home game when they are the favorite. It gets worse for signal caller, Jay Cutler, who loses to the spread roughly 75% of the time when favored at home versus a non-division opponent. The Bears can score points but The Ravens defense is tough - and while The Ravens lack offensive firepower, they should have success against a very porous Bears defensive unit. We'll take the better team, with the better defense, in the better situation.. three reasons to take three points and The Baltimore Ravens today at Soldier Field.
OC Dooley
Broncos -7.5
The originally scheduled matchup in NBC’s coveted primetime slot as supposed to be a battle between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning. But due in part to major Green Bay injuries along with a slow start for New York, the network for the first time this campaign has exercised its “flexible” scheduling. NBC’s decision to choose tonight’s matchup was easy as Denver superstar Peyton Manning (33 touchdown passes) is an instant ratings grabber and he will attempt to hand undefeated Kansas City their first setback. While the Chiefs have made one of the biggest single-season turnarounds in league history, they have benefitted from a “soft” schedule. Arguably the worst thing that can happen for an undefeated side is to have a Bye-Week which slows momentum. I am aware that Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has been virtually automatic following a bye-week (13-1) but that incredible record was compiled in Philadelphia. In a strange sense the oddsmakers have made a loud statement this evening by casting Peyton Manning and company as more than a touchdown favorite even though they are 5-0 at HOME with an average win margin of 22 points per game. In what is going to be cold conditions Peyton Manning is battling a painful high ankle sprain which has been caused by offensive line difficulties (sacked 8 times in the past three games). This evening a “limited” Manning will be facing a top-rated Chiefs defense that not only excels in the sacks category, they have held every opponent to 17-or-less points. The mark of a “true” championship team is to win games in any setting including a potentially low-scoring affair. The bottom line is that Denver has COVERED the spread at a 9-2 clip the past two years when cast as a HOME favorite. One of those “spot” setbacks came earlier against winless Jacksonville, but the Broncos arguably are not a victim of over-pricing this evening