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Carolina Panthers +2
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Well we won the free one last week and damn near got the outright as the Rams went into San Francisco and went toe to toe with the Niner's. Pretty much everybody and their brother loved the 49ers in that one and I love looking for quality opportunities to fade the public. Trust me when I tell you it's much bettor in the long run to be going against the herd in sports wagering than with them. It just seems to be basic human instinct for people to latch onto the favorites. Listen guys, don't you think the odds makers know that. It just seems like pulling teeth often times to get people to take an underdog. I was a bookmaker for years and have seen it up close and personal. Only thing worse than a square bettor is a square bettor who just refuses to change his bad habits. But, all I can do is what I can do. I say we have a live dog here with the Panthers at home. I'm not really sold yet on the Buc's taking the field yet as road favorites. The fact is Tampa has some very tough games looking down the barrel at them and believe it or not, they might be caught looking past the Panthers here. I just don't think they are nearly good enough to have that kind of swagger yet and I can see them tripping up here. This won't make my subscribers list of plays because frankly I have a tough time trusting Newton under center. Much like his opponent this sunday, Josh Freeman, Cam has a bad habit of making mistakes at the worst possible moments. The Buc's actually are also a weak 3-7 against the number as a road favorites since the 04 season. That tells you also just how unfamiliar they are with this role. I say the right side here is the Panthers guys. Should be an entertaining game.
King Creole
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Browns / Cowboys Under 43.5
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Don't be thrown off by Dallas' 38-pt explosion last week. In that game vs Philly, their offense had less than 300 total yards and only 22 points (16 pts came from freak plays). BOTH of these teams are offensively IMPOTENT once they get to the red zone. In 19 Red Zone trips, Cleveland has only 7 TD's and NINE FG's. And in 27 Red Zone trips. Dallas has 12 TD's and 12 FG's.
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The Brownies come in off their Bye Week.
2-12 O/U L3Y: All non-div road teams playing AFTER their Bye... if they scored 15 < pts in their last game.
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Cleveland is off a home dog loss and home dog win in their last 2 games.
0-9 O/U s'96: All GAME 7 > road teams off a SUATS home dog loss and a SUATS home dog win (Clev).
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The inept Browns offense has scored 15, 7, and 13 pts in their last 3 games.
1-7-1 O/U s'04: All GM 8 > non-div dogs who scored 15 pts.
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The host Cowboys have scored 38 and 14 pts in their last 2 games.
1-9 O/U L4Y: All home teams who scored 38 < pts and 14 36 pts.
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We've got an interconference matchup of two LOSING teams in this one.
1-8 O/U s'86: All Game 9 or greater 6 pts (Dal) vs a .333 pts.
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Let's not forget that Cleveland is on a 4-16 O/U run in the last 12 months... and Dallas has gone 3-9 O/U vs non-div opponents in the same time frame.
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New England -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Behind QB Luck, it has been quite an offensive emergence for the 6-3 SU, ATS Colts this year. Remember, this team was 2-14 SU last season. But a closer inspection of their 4-0 SU, ATS streak finds that it has come against Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami and Jacksonville, teams with a combined 11 wins. New England enters on a nice 3-0 SU run themselves as they look to build 2nd half momentum. In that streak, the offense has exploded for 111 points or 37 PPG. Key to this explosion has been a ground game that runs an average of 34 times a game for 146/4.3. That has opened the airways nicely for QB Brady. With the teams sporting identical records, be sure that the upstart Colts and QB Luck have the full attention of New England HC Belichek.
Wunderdog Sports
Cleveland at Dallas
Pick: Cleveland +8
The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to win this game by plenty. But, over the past two years that talent has failed to manifest itself on the field. As a result, the Cowboys often find themselves in a battle week in week out regardless of the opponent. Going back to last year in a full season of games, Dallas is just 7-9 in their last 16, winning just two of those by more than 7 points. So 14 times they would have failed against this number, which is very telling. The fact is, Dallas plays up or down to their competition. Over the past three seasons, the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 34-12 ATS. Cleveland doesn't win many games, but they often find themselves in them, falling just short. The Browns are 2-11 straight-up in their last 13 games, but they have lost just one of the 11 by more than 10 points. Looking at those numbers from each side, as much as they shouldn't be, the Browns are likely to be in this game down the stretch. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when taking 6 or more points, and are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Dallas has not played well at home, going 2-9 ATS in their last nine home games. Dallas is also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons after a win. Take the points and play on Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Cleveland +8 -110 over DALLAS
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Dallas is far too desperate to take anyone lightly and need to win games like this to solidify its playoff chances. How many times have we heard that over the years? Dallas spotting more than a full touchdown is fool’s gold. When Dallas is supposed to win they usually don’t. They are a sloppy, undisciplined, self-destructive and one of the great underachieving teams of our time. They have just four covers in past 17 when giving points and they are offering them to one of the league’s best point takers.
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Cleveland has stayed within this range in three of its four road games. The only one they lost by more than eight was at G-Men when they built a 14-0 lead, took 91 yards in penalties and turned it over three times. That sounds more like a Dallas box score. The Brownies are rested and catch Dallas at the perfect time with the ‘Boys waiting to host Washington on this upcoming Thanksgiving Thursday.
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KANSAS CITY +4 -105 over Cincinnati
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Now that the Chiefs have actually led in regulation, there are no limitations for what could be next. Something like winning a game, maybe? This could be the opportunity to do so. The Bengals have shown time and time again that they are not mature enough to handle the rigours of the NFL. Granted, Cincinnati had a solid win over the Giants last week but based on their recent play, the G-Men may have been running on fumes. Cincy heads to the road for the first time in five weeks. They lost their last road game in Cleveland. In addition, the Bengals have covered just three of past 17 when favored.
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Kansas City showed that they haven’t given up and perhaps Monday’s effort carries into this one. They were robbed by the zebras on Pittsburgh’s final drive last week by several phantom calls and that can’t be sitting well with them. The Chiefs have yet to win at home this season and need to show the supporting fan base that last week was no fluke. Another big effort would not be a surprise.
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Philadelphia +3½ -102 over WASHINGTON
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People say Andy Reid will find a job within minutes of being fired. That may be true but he tied his team’s fortunes to an aging, running quarterback fresh out of prison, that can’t read a defense and sported a horrible career completion percentage rate. Philly backers should be glad to see Nick Foles, the Eagles starter now that Mike Vick is ‘injured’. Of course, despite the ineptness, some of the blame must fall on the abysmal offensive line that Philly employs. That weak unit is not about to get better any time soon.
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It’s difficult to get behind the Eagles with their 1-7 record against the spread. However, this may be the first game they’re priced properly. The Redskins have their own issues, allowing nearly 28 points a game and more than 300 yards passing. Washington has lost all three games straight up when favored this year, they’ve lost three in a row to run its record to 3-6 and once again they’re going to watch the playoffs from the rail. Mike Shanahan is another coach that seems to be surviving on the fumes of his reputation. Washington’s home record under Shanahan is an inexcusable 5-15. Shanahan has already stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes. That’s not what you want to hear when spotting points. Upset alert is on.
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CAROLINA +102 over Tampa Bay
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The tone for Carolina’s poor season was set in the opener when these Buccaneers pulled off the 16-10 upset as a 3-pt underdog in Tampa. Much has gone wrong for the Panthers ever since but not enough to warrant the Bucs being favored here. Despite their woes, the Black Cats are a couple of breaks and mental lapses away from a different season. Carolina has been at the short end of all five games decided by a touchdown or less.
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Tampa has crossed over the .500 mark with three straight wins but this could be the week that Cam Newton finds his truant passing game. The Bucs rank dead last in the league, giving up 321 yards per game through the air, nearly 20 more per game than both Buffalo and New Orleans. That should not be ignored and neither should the fact that the Bucs have Atlanta on deck next week at home. Tampa has been winning games with a poor defense and in this league, that’s unsustainable.
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PITTSBURGH +4 +100 over Baltimore
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If only things were as easy as they often appear in the NFL. If that were the case, we’d be all over the Ravens as they just throttled the Raiders by a 55-20 count while the Steelers struggled at home with the lowly Chiefs, eking out a 16-13 overtime win. In the process, Pittsburgh lost its leader as QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury. None of this is secret and many will back Baltimore in what looks like a slam dunk win. We’re not so sure. Yes, Big Ben is important but prior to Monday’s game, the Steelers were listed as the 3½-point favorite for this one. Now, Baltimore is 4? Ridiculous.
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Lost in all of this is that the Raiders put up more yards than Baltimore last week. They also had more third down conversions. Prior to that game, the Ravens barely squeaked by Cleveland, they were throttled in Houston, were extremely lucky to beat the Cowboys and they won in Kansas City by three points, scoring just nine. This Ravens team is simply not as good as their record indicates. Pittsburgh’s defense, allowing a league low 265 yards per game is more than capable of keeping this rival game in check. They will also dig down deeper with their #1 QB out in support of Byron Leftwich. We’re calling the upset but will gladly take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
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DETROIT +4 +100 over Green Bay
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The Lions are their own worst enemies. Detroit owns the #1 ranked passing offense with 307 yards per game and ranks only behind New England for most yards overall. If they ever get their act together, look out.
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Green Bay could help. The Packers are not whole, as the week off hasn’t really helped their long list of key injuries. The Pack is on a four-game winning streak but previous three came against Rams, Jags and Cardinals and all three were anything but a cakewalk. They take on a more difficult foe and an upset is a distinct possibility. No units risked.
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Arizona +10 -110 over ATLANTA
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Nobody’s perfect. Not anymore after the Falcons suffered their first loss in New Orleans last week. What usually follows an extended perfect season is an exhale of sorts and this is the type of team Atlanta figures to take lightly. The Falcons have been fortunate on more than one occasion. They have a great record but they are not displaying dominance. The Dirty Birds have won all four at home but only once by more than six points. It’s also worth noting that this one is sandwiched between division foes, Saints and Buccaneers next week.
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A rested Arizona defense off a bye, taking this many points has appeal. They’re coming off games against San Francisco and Green Bay and put up a serious fight in the latter. They also beat the Patriots in New England earlier in the year and despite losing five straight, they’ve been in every game but one. This one should be no different. No units risked.
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N.Y. Jets +3½ -104 over ST. LOUIS
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The Jets are a joke but no one is laughing. The team has failed to score double-digits in its past two games, as the entire offense is useless. Still, we’re not prepared to give away points with a St. Louis team that has not been favored all year and returns home after exhausting affair with division leading Niners.
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It was revealed after that game last week that many of the Rams players were unaware that an NFL game could even end in a tie. That may explain why nobody seemed to be trying to prevent it. In reality, everything went the Rams’ way. Stephen Jackson had a big game (go figure) and they caught the Niners napping, yet they still couldn’t seal the deal. As for this New York team, it’s rare for an NFL team to not respond after being humiliated. The Jets performance in Seattle last week may have been their worst effort in decades. A response should be forthcoming. No units risked.
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NEW ENGLAND -9 -103 over Indianapolis
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Few predicted that the Colts would be 6-3 after the first nine games this year. This is a team that was a league worst 2-14 last season. QB Andrew Luck is living up to his billing. Luck's thrown for 10 touchdowns and added five as a runner. He's rushed for more touchdowns than all but Robert Griffin III. He's already set the all-time single game rookie record with 433 yards passing. The Colts are making some noise, they’re attracting attention and now they’re being offered nine points against a Patriots team that barely got past the Bills a week ago. Looks appealing, doesn’t it?
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Not so fast. The Colts are defeating weak teams. Defeating the Browns, Titans, Dolphins and Jaguars in consecutive weeks is commendable for an upstart team but this is a different animal. The Patriots are No. 1 ranked in both points scored and total yards. It’s not Brady vs. Manning anymore but Tom will still treat it that way. The Pats are home for consecutive weeks after overseas trip and all focus will be on taking care of business here. No units risked.
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HOUSTON -15 +102 over Jacksonville
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We’re rarely fond of giving away this many points in the wild and whacky NFL but this could be the most genuine first versus worst in quite some time. The Jaguars lack playmakers, coaching and desire. They’re averaging less than nine points a game at home and that ineptness will likely carry over to the road.
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The Texans sit just two games up on the charging Colts and can ill afford to ease up quite yet. Houston beat this team in Week 2, in Jacksonville, by 20 and that’s when all teams had enthusiasm. With a 1-8 record, that life has been sucked out of the Jags and as a result of that combined with other numerous problems, a blowout is in order. No units risked.
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OAKLAND +5½ +100 over New Orleans
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If you’ve ever wondered what a ‘sandwich’ game is, this could be the textbook example. The Saints had a huge win over the Falcons last week. After this one, New Orleans will host San Francisco, head to Atlanta for a Thursday game and then take on the Giants. Could you blame them for overlooking this one? Also consider that the Saints stock is higher than it’s been all season while the Raiders stock hit bottom with their 55-20 loss in Baltimore. This is not the right time to be buying Saints.
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Oakland usually comes up with something decent when least expected, as witnessed by their win over Pittsburgh in Week 3 after looking horrible in first two weeks. They did it again with near win in Atlanta after losing by 31 in Denver. When the Raiders decide to show up, they’re dangerous. Carson Palmer has thrown for over 350 yards in four different matchups and the defense he’ll face here is not only one of the league’s worst but it’s also in a real letdown spot. Perhaps Raiders to come back to life here for at least one week. No units risked.
NFL Predictions
Atlanta Falcons - 9.5
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a bye, but had lost 5 straight games heading into their bye week. They are 4-5 overall and just1-3 on the road. Over their last 5 games the Cardinals have scored just 53 points(10.6 points per game). The Falcons are 8-1 and coming off their first loss of the season, a 31-27 loss in New Orleans. Atlanta is perfect at home, with wins over Denver, Carolina, Oakland and Dallas. They are 6-3 ATS overall and 2-2 ATS at home. Although the Cardinals have a much higher ranked defensive in yards against, they are side by side allowing 19.2 and 19.3 points against per game. Their offenses are on different levels though, as the Falcons are ranked 6th overall and are scoring 27.4 points per game. The Cardinals are ranked 31st overall and are scoring just 16 points per game. QB John Skelton will get another start for the Cardinals and he is 33rd in the league with a 65.8 QB Rating, as he has thrown just 2 TDs and 5 INTs. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been one of the most effective in the league completing 68.4% of his passes with 20 TDs , 7 INTs, and a 102.6 QB Rating. Note that the Cardinals are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Falcons rebound from a loss well going 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 vs a team with a losing record. Head to head the Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Arizona struggles on the road going 3-9 over the past two seasons away from home, and they have a very tough task this week. Given that they can't put together much offensively I don't see the Cardinals keeping this one close. The play is on Atlanta here.
Cleveland Browns +8
Cleveland goes into Dallas after a bye week looking to improve on their 2-7 record. Dallas is coming off a big win in Philadelphia and improved to 4-5 on the year. They are just 1-2 at home this season, while the Browns are winless on the road. All of a sudden it seems as if the Cowboys are getting a bunch of respect even though they were 1-4 over their last 5 games heading into Philadelphia, and knocked off a team that had won 3 games all season by a combined 4 points. The Cowboys rank much higher defensively than the Browns, but are giving up less than 1 point fewer per game. The Cowboys also rank a lot higher offensively but are averaging just 20.9 ppg compared to the Browns at 18.8 ppg. Advantage at the QB spot clearly goes to Tony Romo, although he has thrown just 12 TDs compared to 13 INTs this season. We are making this play because of the position the Cowboys are in. This is a good spot for a let down game after they went into Philadelphia and beat one of their division rvials, and now come home to host a 2-7 AFC team. Dallas also has a Thursday Thanksgiving home game just 4 days after this one against the Redskins that will be in the back of their minds. Cleveland also had an extra week of prep time with the bye week. Note that Dallas is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-2-1 ATS in their lat 11 games following a straight up loss. Yes the Cowboys are the better team and are at home, but they haven't had much of a home field advantage and this is a tough spot for them. I like the Browns to come into Dallas Sunday and keep it close.
Houston Texans -15
I will rarely play any spread over 2 touchdowns, but I think we have a good spot to take Houston this week. The Texans enter this game 8-1 (4-1 at home) while the Jaguars are 1-8 on the year (1-3 on the road). Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games in which they have scored more than 15 points just once. Included in those games was last week's Thursday Night'er where they lost 27-10 at home, and looked absolutely awful. The Houston Texans beat Chicago last Sunday night 13-6 as 1 point underdogs, and have now won three straight. Houston has the league's 2nd ranked defense, and they are avering jsut 15.9 points against per game. Jacksonville's D is ranked 27th and are allowing 27.3 points against per game. Houston is ranked 14th offensively, but they are near the top of the league scoring 27.8 ppg. The Jaguars are 32nd in the NFL offensively and are scoring a league worse 14.1 ppg. Their only hope on offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will miss his 4th straight game on Sunday. Note that the Jags are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team with a winning record. The Texans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 19-7-2 in their last 29 games overall. Take note that 4 of Houston's 8 victories have come by at least 15 points, while 5 of Jacksonville's 8 losses have been by atleast 15 points. These two teams met in Jacksonville in Week 2 with the Texans winning by 20 points. I think Jacksonville will be lucky to score 10 points on Sunday, and the Texans will cover this big spread.
New Orleans Saints -4.5
I'm big on New Orleans right now and for good reasons. The Saints have won their last two games over Atlanta and Philadelphia, and have won 4 of 5 overall to improve to 4-5 on the season. The Raiders have dropped two straight, including last week's 55-20 loss in Baltimore. Oakland is just 3-6 this year and 2-2 at home, with two of their three victories coming against Kansas City and Jacksonville (both 1 win teams). This one looks to be a high scoring game, as New Orleans' defense is ranked 32nd while the Raiders are ranked 23rd defensively. The Saints are allowing less points against per game at 28.4 compared to the Raiders who are giving up a league worst 31.6 papg. New Orleans' offense is ranked 4th and are averaging 27.7 ppg, while the Raiders are 12th and averaging 21.2 ppg. QB Drew Brees has thrown 25 TDs and 9 INTs this season for a 97.3 QB Rating, while Carson Palmer has thrown 15 TDs, 9 INTs and has a 86.8 QB Rating. Although Drew Brees prefers playing in a dome, he should be fine in a warm weather outdoor stadium. The saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. The Raiders are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Saints have a ton of momentum heading into this one after knocking off the 8-0 Falcons last week, and they still have playoffs on their minds. The Raiders always play tough at home, but this team doesn't have enough to keep up with the Saints. I like New Orleans to win by a touchdown.
Charlie Sports
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins
The (3-6) Philadelphia Eagles of the NFL NFC East division will take on the (3-6) Washington Redskins of the same division in 2012 NFL action. The Eagles are struggling this season, but are 3-0 staright up and against the spread their last 3 vs. Washington. Philadelphia has lost 5 in a row straight up this aseaon and have dropped their last 4 ATS. The Redskins have lost 4 of their last 5 staright up and have stayed under the total their last 3. Washington gets the home win.
Larry Ness
New Orleans vs. Oakland
Pick: New Orleans
The saying goes that if it looks too good to be true, generally it is. Am I making a mistake here playing the Saints? After all, the Saints have allowed more than 400 yards of offense to their opponents in all NINE games this season, checking in at 469.3 YPG on the year (almost 70 yards more that the 31st-ranked team and still on pace to yield the most yards in NFL history). As for the Raiders, they gave up 42 points in a home loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, then tied a club record by allowing 55 points to the Ravens last week. Oakland is allowing 255.9 YPG through the air, while allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.0 percent of their throws while managing a measly 11 sacks and six INTs in 318 attempts. That hardly bodes well when facing Drew Brees, who is averaging 319.3 YPG passing while throwing 25 TDs against just nine INTs. As all know, the Saints opened 0-4 but have won FOUR of five with Brees throwing 15 TDs and just four INTs in that span. It should also be noted that the Saints have averaged 144.0 YPG on the ground the last two games (5.3 YPC) which is more good news vs an Oakland defense which allowed the Bucs 278 yards rushing back in Week 9. As impressive as Brees is, the Saints can’t avoid the fact that since 2010, they are 1-9 when they run 20 or fewer times but 27-4 when it's 21 or more! Oakland has seemingly shelved its running game for the season (ranks 31st with 76.7 YPG on 3.5 YPC), relying solely on Carson Palmer. Palmer's played well (302.6 YPG with 15 TDs and nine INTs) and faces that terrible Saints “D,” which allows an NFL-high 104.4 QB rating to their opponents, 307.3 YPG through the air and has just five INTs in 338 pass attempts, against. The Saints have won 13 straight games in the month of November and Brees is 6-0 while throwing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against the Raiders. I should bet that things will change here? No thanks!
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were actually a short favorite when these teams met in Tampa in week-one, a 16-10 Buccaneers' win. Carolina provided us with big back-to-back covers, but hit the wall in last week's loss to Denver. The Panthers had played in five straight, down to the wire type games and looked gassed against the Broncos. Of course, Denver is also recognized as the top team in the NFL in the Vegas Rankings this week. I expect a bounce back by Carolina against the NFL's worst pass defense, which also happens to be a little dinged-up right now. And let's not forget how misleading last week's win over San Diego happened to be. After all, the Buccs were outgained 426-279! The Panthers are just a handful of plays away from a 6-3 record and I believe they'll land one in the win column on Sunday, taking full advantage of Tampa's porous secondary. I'm recommending a play on the Panthers on Sunday.
John Ryan
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. The best against the worst and I am backing the worst. Stands to reason given the public is all over the Texans in this apparent blowout situation. The most important item that the betting public is overlooking is that Houston is on a very short week with their Week 12 matchup set to take place against a much greater opponent in Detroit Thanksgiving Day. What I anticipate will happen in this game, is that workhorse running back Arian Foster will see far less touches than his 25 carries per game average. This will be to keep him fresh for the Lions game. Justin Forsett will see far more action in the Houston backfield in this game. Look for the Jags, who are coming off a long week of rest after their loss to the Colts last Thursday to open up the offense featuring the no-huddle attack. Gabbert makes his best decisions and reads in the faster paced style of play calling and this will keep J.J. Watts and the Texans pressure out of Gabbert?s line of vision. I think the Texans win the game, but JAX will keep it within 10 or fewer points.
Jim Feist
Rockets at Lakers
Pick: Over
The Houston Rockets (4-5 S/U, 4-4-1 ATS) continue their West Coast road swing in LA on Sunday. The Rockets opened the season with two wins, but have since dropped five of their next seven. They are coming off a OT loss at Portland on Friday, 119-117. The Rockets have been putting up some nice offensive numbers too, scoring 100 or more points in their last three games and five of their nine. The LA Lakers (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) rebounded from a tough loss to the Spurs with a blowout win over the Suns on Friday, 114-102. The Lakers have also put up some nice offensive numbers, scoring 100 or more in five of their nine games. The dog has done well in this series of late, covering five of the last six meetings. In fact, Rockets are 5-1 in their last six matchups with the Lakers. The OVER has also been a good bet when these clubs meet, with the last seven going over the number. I expect these two pretty good scoring teams to go OVER here on Sunday. They have done so in their recent meetings and will once again. Take the OVER
Dave Cokin
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Pick: Denver Broncos
Big revenge spot for San Diego after blowing a 24-0 lead in the first meeting. But Denver is red hot and the fact is they completely overwhelmed the Chargers in that first meeting. I'll look for a repeat here and will back the Broncos minus the points.
Matt Fargo
Chargers at Broncos
Pick: Under
The over was 8-4 last Sunday as scoring continues to rise and completely hurt the books with totals as the majority of all action has been on the over. Why are now starting to see CFL like totals in the NFL as this Sunday there are five games with a total of 48 or higher including three in the 50's. Last week the scoring average was 48.6 ppg and that includes the three primetime games Thursday, Sunday and Monday where there were just 85 points scored in the three games combined. This is the week the under makes a big run and we need to decipher which games have the greatest amount of value along with the greatest chances of staying at least somewhat low scoring. One of those is San Diego and Denver. Both teams are 6-3 to the over on the season and both are in the midst of some high scoring games recently. The Chargers and Buccaneers scored 58 points last week for San Diego's second straight over while Denver and Carolina scored 50 points for its second straight over as well. This is a big game for San Diego as it needs to take this one to keep any sort of playoff hope alive. It will have to accomplish that by shortening the game and not getting into a shootout. They can do this by running the ball more frequent. The running game has been very good for the most part as they have surpassed 100 yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games. Denver's rushing defense is decent but it is not a top ten unit so expect Ryan Matthews to play a big part this week. The Broncos have been scoring at will of late as they have gone over 30 points in four straight games making this a contrarian play. On the other side, San Diego is seventh in the NFL in total defense and the Chargers have allowed fewer than 300 yards in three straight games. Granted, Denver is a much stronger offense than what it has seen but the Chargers are allowing a respectable 7.1 ypa. Peyton Manning ripped them apart in the second half of the first meeting so expect the correct adjustments to be made. We are catching a very favorable total in this game as it is the second highest San Diego has had this season and it falls into a great totals situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 49-21 (70 percent) to the under since 1983 with the average points scored being 40.9 ppg.
SPORTS WAGERS
Indiana +7 -104 over NEW YORK
Indiana has gotten off to a horrible start. They were projected to be a tough out every game but some awful shooting and poor defense had them sitting at 3-6 prior their to 20-point win over Dallas on Friday night. The Pacers exploded in the second half of that contest with great shooting and excellent defense. A big weight was lifted of their shoulders in the process. They come into this one feeling so much better and they catch the Knicks at a good time.
New York comes home from a three-game trip through Orlando, San Antonio and Memphis. The latter two were especially physical and while the Knicks went 1-1, they were down by 12 in San Antonio in the fourth quarter before rallying to win and were down by 22 in Memphis before ultimately losing by just 10. That takes a toll and now they’ll play a noon game upon returning and it’s just not a favorable spot. Give the Knicks a ton of credit. They’re playing hard, they’re playing great defense and they’re playing with a passion not seen since the Jeff Van Gundy era. However, this is too much weight to be spotting a talented Pacers team coming off their best game of the year. Overlay.