Andy Iskoe
Carolina +1.5
Tampa Bay upset Carolina as 3 point home dogs to open the season. Since that game Tampa has become a much more potent team on offense yet while also displaying a permissive defense. At 5-4 the Buccs are on the periphery of the Wild Card race. Carolina is just 2-7 but 5 of the losses have been by a TD or less. Their defense has played much better over the past month, holding 4 of its last 5 foes to under 100 rushing yards while also holding 4 of its 5 foes to under 230 passing yards. Yet they've gone from being a 3 point road favorite at Tampa Bay to a home underdog in just two months? Tampa is hot, having won 3 in a road including twice on the road. But Carolina, despite disappointing us against Denver last week, has had success in this series, winning both game last season (when QB Newton was a rookie) and 5 of the last 7 meetings. With 2 road games on deck this sets up favorably for the Panthers who have shown over the past month that they've not given up on the season.
Charlie Scott
New Orleans Saints vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders
I'm currently on a 10-0 5 week winning streak in Marc Lawrence's Vegas Wise Guys Contest and used the Raiders as my Best Bet this week. The Saints are off a big Win against division foe Falcons. The squares love the Saints, while most sharps are on the Raiders. I can't see laying points with the Saints on the road, on grass, with the worst ranked defense in the NFL. Wait until game time to bet to get the best number.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Jags Under 41: The Jags offense is pitiful this year as they come in raked 32nd in total offense (264.3 ypg) and 32nd in scoring (14.1 ppg). The Jags are also 31st in yards per play (4.5) and will be facing a Houston Defense that is 4th in yards per play allowed (4.8). Don't expect many or any big plays from the jags here. Overall the Houston defense comes in 3rd in total defense (281.6 ypg) and 3rd in passing defense (195.7 ypg). I really don't see the Jags getting DD in this one. On offense Houston will not need to do too much to win this this one and I expect them to mostly keep the ball on the ground and use Arian Foster to pound away at the Jags 29th ranked rushing defense. That will eat plenty of clock. Houston really doesn't have to do too much on offense to win this one and I expect then to keep this one pretty vanilla, especially since they have a defense that has the ability to shut out this hapless Jags offense. Look for this game to finish in the low 30's at best.
4 UNIT PLAYS
NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Indianapolis: The Colts have won 4 in a row, but all were vs sub .500 teams and all 4 teams had offenses ranked near the bottom of the league. This Patriots offense is not ranked near the bottom and the Colts will have trouble slowing them down in this one. The Patriots have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, but overall they still allow just 22.3 ppg on the year. The Colts this year have scored just 20.7 ppg away from home, while the Patriots have averaged 33.2 ppg at home and have outscored their opponents at home by 11 ppg. This may be close at the half, but after last weeks game in which they allowed the bills to hang around in you can expect that the Pats will look for the blowout here. Pats by at least 17 in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Washington Over 44.5: The Eagles may be better off having Foles out there in this one as he has a big arm and should be able to find plenty of holes in this horrendous Washington pass defense that has allowed 310.7 ypg so far. The Eagles only average 17.3 ppg, but will be facing a skins team that has allowed 27.6 ppg on the year. The Skins have been a pretty high scoring team this year as they have averaged 27.6 ppg. The Skins are pretty balanced with a strong running game, which only sets up the passing game even more and they have taken advantage with a 7.1 yards per attempt average. This should not be your average smash mouth NFC East football game. Both teams have the weapons on offense and both defenses have been poor, which should allow for plenty of points to be put up here.
New Orleans/ Oakland Over 54.5: I see allot of points in this one. The Saints offense can score on any defense and they have this year, averaging 27.7 ppg on the year. The Saints have scored 24 or more points in all but 1 game this year and they are 2nd in the league in passing (303.9 ypg). That High powered offense now gets to face a Raiders defense that is 24th vs the pass (255.4 ypg) and 32nd in points allowed (31.6 ppg). The Raiders have been particularly bad in their last 2 games, allowing a whopping 97 points over that stretch. On offense the Raider have not been all that bad as they come in averaging 26 ppg in their last 4 games. At home the Raiders have put up 30.7 ppg in their last 3 games played here and that should continue as they take on a bad New Orleans defense. The Raiders have McFadden out and they have already stated that there will be plenty of balls in the air from them in this one as they take on the leagues 2nd worst passing defense. You can expect many big plays from the Raiders in this one. Overall on the road this year the Saint defense has allowed 481 ypg and 31.3 ppg. Bad numbers for sure here. This game could be played in the 60's.
Arizona/ Atlanta Under 44: This year the Arizona Cardinals have had just 2 games score more than 38 points and one of those games went to OT, in which just 45 points were scored. The Cards offense has struggled this year as they come in averaging just 295.8 ypg and 16 ppg overall, while on the road they have put up 305.3 ypg and just 13.6 ppg. On the other side of the ball the Cardinals have a defense that has played pretty well this year, allowing just 320.7 ypg and 19.2 ppg. Little offense and solid defense is why Cardinal games have averaged just 35.2 ppg on the year, The Atlanta offense does come in averaging 27.6 ppg on the year, but this is still a ball control offense and i just don't see them getting too many big plays vs a defense that doesn't allow many. The Falcon defense has also been solid this year as they have allowed just 19.3 ppg, despite giving up 365 ypg. They do allow 6.2 yards per play, but Arizona only gains 4.8 ypp, so don't expect allot of big plays from the Cards in this one. Neither team will get too many big plays today. Both defenses are very good and only one team can score. No more than 35 points in this one.
Andre Gomes
Jaguars / Texans Under 41
There isn't much to say in here, as we are talking about a game between one of the best teams in the league and of the worst teams in the league. Houston's offense is very running-oriented and I expect to see Arian Foster to have a huge workload today, even though the Texans hasn't been very effective on the running game this season (#20 with 3.9 Y/C). Jacksonville has an average defense against both the running and the passing game, therefore I believe they won't allow the Texans to score a massive number of points today.
The problem for Jacksonville is that I don't know how they will score at all. Blaine Gabbert is banged up with a shoulder injury and if he is bad healthy, let alone injured. Houston's pass defense is excellent and they won't allow any big play to the Jaguars today. With Maurice Jones-Drew out with a foot injury, the Jaguars' running game has been quite poor as well and Houston's run defense should be also able to shutdown the running game of Jacksonville today.
With Jacksonville's decent defense keeping the score respectable and with Houston's defense completely shutting down the Jaguars offense, I believe we are into a similar game to the one Houston played against Buffalo two weeks ago and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Orlando Magic +4.5
Toronto is coming from a loss yesterday afternoon in Boston, where they got crushed by Boston's offense, who moved the ball excellently and made almost every long range shot: 5-10 FG from 10-15 feet, 14-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts. The Raptors' starting lineup was terrible and it was Linas Kleiza, Terrence Ross and John Lucas III, who combined 35 points scored to keep the score a bit respectable.
On the other hand, Orlando is coming from a road win in Detroit last Friday. Jameer Nelson came back to the lineup and he was the key of that game with 13 points and 10 assists. The Magic got pounded by Detroit down low, as they allowed 26-39 FG at the rim and 5-8 FG from 3-9 feet. Even though the Pistons looked good on offensive, Orlando had the key of the game by grabbing 60% of the rebounds! Their cuts keep being very efficient with 12-17 and with Jameer Nelson back, their pick and roll plays immediately got better.
Toronto keep playing without Kyle Lowry and they are struggling to defend on the backcourt, especially cuts, as Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas aren't good help defenders! Toronto is just #22 in defending cuts, #28 in defending transition plays and #28 in defending spot ups, so they are a good matchup for Orlando's offense. The Magic keep struggling on their inside defense, but Toronto is the #6 team in the league with less volume at the rim, so if the Raptors want to win this game, they will need to outplay Orlando in terms of outside shooting and right now the Magic with their dynamic offense is better than them with Jameer Nelson back. Therefore, I'll be taking Orlando in here.
Scott Delaney
37-17-1 comp play run following Saturday's easy winner on Nebraska over Minnesota with today's play on the Atlanta Falcons getting it done at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Why not? With thoughts and pressure of an undefeated season put to rest, the Falcons can get on with the order of business: a division championship, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and quite possibly their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1999.
This is the perfect opportunity to show everyone last week was no kind of an indicator, other than one about the New Orleans Saints, and they're about to make a comeback. Atlanta is still 8-1, and even after its 31-27 loss to the Saints, it's enjoying a three-game lead over Tampa Bay in the NFC South and is one game ahead of Chicago for the best record in the NFC.
Now they host a team licking its own wounds, having lost five straight.
Yes, the Cardinals were off last week, possibly giving them a chance to regroup, but the way I've seen them play during their demise sincce opening the season 4-0, I think this losing skid has been indicative of how this team truly is.
It seems like Arizona is banged up where it matters most, with running back Beanie Wells nursing a severe turf toe and quarterback Kevin Kolb out with a rib injury. Thus, we have the diminutive duo of 5-foot-7 LaRod Stephens-Howling and 5-9 William Powell running out of the league's worst-ranked backfield, and unheralded John Skelton back under center. And make note, Skelton is the league's 33rd-rated passer, with five interceptions and just two touchdowns. Breaking news: there are 32 teams in the NFL.
I'd rather bank on the much-better Falcons, who have the sixth-best offense in the league and are 29-1 when quarterback Matt Ryan has 100-plus quarterback rating, including 6-1 this season. Sure, the Cardinals have the league's second-ranked pass defense, but that doesn't scare me with this one taking place in the Georgia Dome, where the Dirty Birds are 30-6 in Mike Smith's five seasons as coach.
Arizona has no way of keeping up with the 31st-ranked offense.
In a battle of birds today, I'll take the mightier Falcons over the Cardinals.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Today's complimentary winner is on the Carolina Panthers plus the points at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As much as I believe in coach Greg Schiano, and as much money as I've made with the Bucs, I think this might be one of those disappointing weeks where a team that has no shot of making the playoffs scores a monumental win, much like the one the Panthers scored over the Washington Redskins.
While Tampa Bay has won four of its last five games to improve to 5-4 and yes it's in playoff contention in a very competitive NFC, but that doesn't mean it can't suffer a letdown here or there. The Panthers (2-7) have lost five of six but there is that one meaningful win over the 'Skins and Robert Griffin III.
Even though Tampa Bay beat Carolina in the season opener 16-10, the Panthers just might be ready to score another shocker. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs arrive in Charlotte a bit overconfident and playing a tad bit too cocky for their own britches. I mean, when you're an overachieving team with a first-year coach that has received criticism for some quirky plays and you're averaging 35.6 points per game in a five-game span, you tend to overlook a team like Carolina.
Something tells me Carolina coach Ron Rivera has reminded his troops how they destroyed the Bucs last season, using a ferocious ground game, rushing for a ridiculous 433 yards and seven touchdowns in two games against them, outscoring their division foes 86-35. Cam Newton was unstoppable, scoring a total of eight touchdowns - four rushing and four passing - in the season sweep.
Yes, this is a team mired in a losing streak, but it's also a team that has lost four games after leading in the fourth quarter.
Besides, if the Buccaneers are so much better, and the Panthers are this team headed toward upheaval, then why is the line so low? It just might be because the oddsmakers are begging you to take the low favorite, but in reality are indicating this one should be closer than expected and the Panthers are the right side.
2♦ CAROLINA
Jeff Benton
Going to back the Washington Redskins (-3') at home against the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East clash.
I think the bye week is just what the doctor ordered for the Redskins, who carried a three-game losing streak into the break.
Washington has struggled against Philadelphia in recent meetings, as the Eagles have won and covered both the last three in the series, and the last three played at FedEx Field, but those wins came with Michael Vick under center. That won't be the case today, as rookie Nick Foles makes his first NFL start.
Foles was harassed plenty in relief of Vick last Sunday at home versus Dallas, and with the Philly offensive line resembling a piece of swiss cheese this season, expect the rookie out of Arizona to face plenty of pressure again in this one.
Philadelphia is in the midst of a five-game straight-up slide and a four-game ATS skid, and is just 1-8 overall versus the number this season. Andy Reid's days as head man in the City of Brotherly Love are seemingly limited, and have to believe that rookie RGIII will want to get his team back in the winner's circle versus a division rival.
With division games the next three weeks, Washington does have an outside shot at getting back in the weak NFC East division race if they can get on a roll. Today is the start. Back the Skins minus the points.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is going to be the Green Bay Packers in a key NFC North rivalry clash, as I think we're actually going to see a mismatch of huge proportions. Last year, when Green Bay beat Detroit 45-41 in the regular-season finale, things were different and we were watching two different types of football teams. This year, expectations and paths have been different, and something tells me the Packers are about to make a huge statement - the same kind they made when they went into Houston and destroyed the Texans.
Detroit is in last place in the division and faces an uphill climb with a difficult schedule the rest of the way. And even though Green Bay is banged-up and has plenty of work to do to get into the postseason, with Chicago leading the North, I still think the Packers are the better football team.
Green Bay, which is just one game back of the Bears, has won 20 of its last 23 games against the Lions. That includes last year's sweep and that season-finale in which Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers didn't even play. Instead, it was backup Matt Flynn throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns.
And even though Detroit's Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five touchdowns, keep in mind that was against last year's Packers defense that couldn't stop a coffee spill if it were Brawny paper towel. This year, however, a much-improved Green Bay stop unit is more like a quicker-picker-upper, and I like it to stymie the Lions' second-ranked offense in this showdown.
Rodgers has 25 touchdowns and ranks first in the NFL with 25 or more in the team's first nine games in two different seasons, and he's going to shine brighter than anyone else on that stage today. Look for the big plays to go down in Motown. After all, Detroit has allowed 85 points from outside the red zone, and the league average is 58.
All Green Bay today.
2♦ GREEN BAY
Matt Rivers
Your Sunday free play is the Over in the Saints-Raiders game.
The Oakland defense has been gushing points the past two weeks, as Tampa Bay put up 42 on them in the Black Hole two Sunday's ago, and last Sunday it was Baltimore gouging them for a NFL-high 55 points! Obviously, both games made their way well Over the total.
More of the same with the suddenly humming Saints paying a visit. New Orleans is averaging right around 28 points per game their past five games, and their defense still remains a huge question mark with 27 points or more allowed in four of their last six contests.
The Raiders have become quite the Over team of late, with each of their last four going Over and 12 of their last 16 since last season now having landed in the Over column.
A zebra can't change its stripes, so stick with the established trends and play Oakland to go Over the posted price one more time this Sunday.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS-OAKLAND OVER
Your Sunday free play is the Over in the Packers at the Lions.
No weather issues indoors in the comfy climes of Ford Field, so look for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford to light up the sky and for the points to add up in this NFC North battle.
Green Bay comes into this game having played Overs in six of their nine games this season, while Detroit has been Over the total in six of their nine with a push in the mix.
Back the numbers up a little further, and you will see the Packers on a 19-8 Over clip since the 2010 season, while the Lions are 29-14-2 over since the end of the '09 campaign!
Hard to ignore those numbers, so don't try and play the contrarian in this one....climate-controlled conditions, points will be flying.
5♦ GREEN BAY-DETROIT OVER