Jimmy Adams
NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -9½
What a disaster the Jets have become. Losers of 7 straight, they now must go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. It's pretty clear by now that Rex Ryan just isn't cut out to be a head coach in the NFL. He and his brother are decent assistants, but it's time for some major changes in New York. Geno Smith threw for a total of 5 yards and was picked off 3 times before being benched in favor of Michael Vick last week. I don't know that we've ever seen a performance that horrific, and the bad news is that Vick didn't play much better. Vick ran for 153 yards with an interception and lost 2 fumbles after replacing Smith. Giving away the ball like that won't win you any games, especially against a solid Chiefs stop unit, known for forcing turnovers.
So Vick's now the starter and his first start comes against the coach that knows him best, Andy Reid. Vick played for Reid in Philadelphia, so Reid will know exactly what to do in terms of defending him. It won't be very difficult, because Vick is pretty much washed up at this point in his career. He's lost most of his athleticism and remains injury prone.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. This defense is #1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing only 195.7 passing ypg. They also rank 3rd overall in points allowed at just 18.3. This anemic Jets offense against a Chiefs D that is one of the best in league spells out an easy win for us.
Rob Vinciletti
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 44.5
Dallas will look to rebound here off the Monday night loss. Romo looks to be a go in this one and teams at home off a Monday night favored home loss are cashing over 85% to the over vs an opponent that was also at home. Arizona can score and has big play capability. Dallas can run or throw and should be more efficient here against an Arizona team that has lost 14 of the last 15 here in Dallas. The Cowboys have played over 10 straight times off a Monday night Loss. Look for this one to play over the total today.
Tony George
Philadelphia -2
Well Houston will have their hands full here and they never fare well against the NFC, and or elite teams either. The key to Philly despite the picks thrown by QB Foles being an issue is the re-commitment to run and the past 2 weeks RB McCoy has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and quitter frankly the OL is vastly healthier for the Eagles as well. We also catch Philly coming off a road loss ion game at 6-1 Arizona they should have and could have won.
While Houston’s running game with RB Foster is their only option, you always ask yourself who has the better QB and it is a no brainer that QB Fitzpatrick is a liability and not an asset and his throws picks folks. Wins over Redskins, Raiders, Titans and Bills are hardly a list of teams who frankly impress me as big wins for the Texans, I like Philly’s balanced attack, fast pace and 1-2 punch at RB and big play maker WR Macklin here to get back on track. I can assure you Philly, with a red hot Dallas team in their division, will have a sense of priority and awareness coming into this game, and will approach this as a big game, and while JJ Watt for Houston is a playmaker, this style of offense is not to his liking.
Jim Feist
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Oakland Raiders
The defending World Champion Seahawks have struggled to return to that dominating form they showed last season. the Seahawks are just 4-3 this season, losing two of their last three games including a close win last week over Carolina, 13-9. The Hawks have failed to cover three straight and are just 3-4 ATS this season. Seattle's dominating defense has struggled at times this season, allowing 28 points to the St Louis Rams and 30 points to Dallas in back-to-back games. The defense ranks 10th in scoring and 10th against the pass. The team also suffered some clubhouse issues when they dealt Percy Harvin to the Jets a few weeks ago, prompting some outcry from other players on the team. The Raiders are still looking for that first win this season and likely won't get it here, one of the toughest places to play on the road. The one good thing for the Raiders here is that they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. We get two TD's with the Raiders here and in the NFL that's a big chalk to cover, even against the winless Raiders. Hard to imagine Seattle getting very excited for the Raiders visit here. With their poor play of late, this is just too many points to pass on.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Edges - Bucs: 5-0 ATS in 4th away game of season; and 6-1 ATS off BB SU losses versus .500 or greater opponents before facing the Falcons. Browns: 0-5 ATS in 5th home game of season versus foe off non-division contest; and 1-4 ATS home versus NFC South. With Bucs’ boss Lovie Smith at his best as a dog in games versus an opponent off a SU win (6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when off a loss of six or more points), we recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
I think Cleveland is getting way too much respect against the Buccaneers. I really liked what I saw from the Browns early on, but the offense has not looked good since starting center Alex Mack went down with an injury. Cleveland managed just 266 yards of total offense in a shocking 6-24 loss to Jacksonville in Week 7 and only accumulated 306 yards against the Raiders. In fact, the Browns were outgained on the game by Oakland 387 to 306. I’m not saying Cleveland shouldn’t be favored in this matchup, but 6.5-points is way too much.
I’ll admit that I expected a lot more out of this Tampa Bay team than what we have seen so far, but they have had some promising performances of late. They went on the road and beat the Steelers 27-24 in Week 4 and nearly upset the Saints on the road in a 31-37 overtime defeat. It’s also worth noting that 4 of the Buccaneers 6 losses have come by 6-points. I expect this team to continue to play hard under Lovie Smith and I look for them to keep improving as the season goes on.
One of the big problems for Tampa Bay this season has been their inability to get anything going on the ground. They have rushed for less than 90 yards in each of their last 5 games. If there’s a team that can help the Buccaneers have some success running the ball, it’s the Browns. Cleveland comes in 30th in the league, giving up an average 143.4 ypg, and their 4.8 yards/carry allowed is the 31st worst mark. This should have Tampa Bay’s offense poised for one of their better performances of the season and with the way Cleveland’s offense has struggled since the injury to Mack, it wouldn’t come as a huge shock if the Buccaneers won this game outright.
This has been the time of year where the Buccaneers have really started to show some value. Over the last 3 seasons, Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of November. They are also an impressive 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 4 of their last 6 games.
Couple of nice systems in play as well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 2 out of their last 3 games with a marginal winning record (51% to 60%) against a team with a losing record are just 36-72 (33%) ATS since 1983, while road underdogs who have won 25% or less of their games after a stretch of 5 games where they have been beaten by the spread by 42 or more combined points are 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati Bengals -10
I know this is a big number to lay in the NFL, but I really like Cincinnati in this spot. The Bengals got a huge win last week over Baltimore and I look for them to carry over that momentum with one of their best showing of the season against Jacksonville. The Bengals also get a big emotional lift here with the return of wide out A.J. Green, who is without question their most important offensive player. The Jaguars have shown some signs of being more competitive, but it's come against mediocre and bad teams. They are not ready to compete with a team like Cincinnati. Turnovers have been a major problem for Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense and I don't expect them to play a clean game against a Cincinnati defense that has forced 2 or more turnovers in 5 of their 7 games. You also have to factor in the Bengals have a big time homefield advantage that tends to get overlooked by the public.
Key Trends - Bengals are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 in the 2nd half of the season against bad defensive teams who are giving up 5.65+ yards/play, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record.
Brad Diamond
St. Louis vs. San Francisco
Play: Under 44
Realize the Niners (4-3) are coming off a bye, while the staggering Rams (2-5) show after the KC debacle. San Francisco won the initial game in the series back on October 13th 31-17 in St. Louis. With the game being played out on the Bay this Sunday, it should be more difficult for the Rams to be successful considering their injured offensive line. So, despite the obvious I’m going to go to the total card as my projection in a lowing scoring game with STL trying to stay close with defense and special teams. We know the Niners have similar physical issues since training camp, but on defense. Last time out the defense was mauled by Manning up in Denver, again this is St. Louis. The total has moved slightly down from the opener. San Francisco is 4-0 UNDER off a SU loss, 5-2 UNDER at home. The Rams field at 5-1 UNDER on the road and 4-0 UNDER after scoring 15 or less in their previous game. STL is 3-1 UNDER before playing Arizona. The last four games in the series have gone UNDER, OVER, UNDER and OVER. On Sunday afternoon stay low!
Randall the Handle
BEST BETS
LINE: CLEVELAND BY 6 1/2
When you think of a Florida-based team that is dead last in both offence and defence in addition to being 31st in point differential, Jacksonville likely comes to mind. However, you'd be insulting the Jaguars because it is this Tampa Bay squad that owns such dubious distinctions. Only the Raiders and Bucs average less than 300 yards on offence per game while the Falcons and Bucs are the only pair that give up more than 400 yards per contest. It's not easy to get behind a team that is so poor on both sides of the ball. QB Mike Glennon was relegated to back up at the start of the year, but Josh McCown's ineptitude has thrust him back into action. Tampa's passing game is so weak, you have to go all the way to 52nd before finding a Tampa receiver on the yardage list. Vincent Jackson sits there, averaging a paltry 51 yards per game. Of course, there is risk in spotting too many points with the Browns but they are 3-1 at home, Brian Hoyer has thrown just two interceptions in 218 pass attempts and Tampa has no pass rush to harass the Brownies. TAKING: BROWNS -6 1/2
Eagles 5-2 at Texans 4-4
Rock breaks scissors, scissors cuts paper, defence trumps offence. Those being the rules, having a stronger defensive team taking points to this haphazard Eagles team, we intend to play by those rules. While the raw numbers may not illustrate a superior defence here, Houston clearly has the better stop unit and with Jadeveon Clowney back for the second week after recovering from a knee injury, J.J. Watt and Clowney figure to be too much for Philadelphia's suspect offensive line to deal with. It won't help that QB Nick Foles has been erratic with an unimpressive 59% completion rate and his team ranks dead last in red zone touchdowns. The scheduling of this one also does Philly no favours. The Eagles just lost a tough game in Arizona and they'll travel on consecutive weeks. They'll look forward to returning home for the first time in a month next week as they host the Panthers in the Monday nighter, only to be followed by a trip to Lambeau. Conversely, the Texans are home after splitting two away games (a loss at Pittsburgh despite outplaying the Steelers) and their only defeat here was at the hands of the Colts. TAKING: TEXANS +2
Ravens 5-3 at Steelers 5-3
Sometimes, the point spread tells you which team to take. This is one of those occasions. Folks are high on the Steelers after witnessing Ben Roethlisberger throw for insane numbers (40 of 49 for 522 yards and six TDs) against the Colts last week while the Ravens were losing to a Bengals team that had been in a funk. Yet, Baltimore is actually favoured in this game at Pittsburgh? Isn't it always three points for the home team in this heated rivalry? Perhaps the oddsmakers remember the 26-6 thrashing that the Ravens laid on these Steelers in Week 2. Or could it be Pittsburgh's home loss to the one-win Buccaneers? If any team knows how to slow down Big Ben's offence, it's this Baltimore club. In their past 12 meetings, Pittsburgh has averaged just over 15 points per game. The Steelers didn't even make it to the end zone in that earlier tussle. Masked in Pittsburgh's offensive barrage last week was their inability to play defence, namely at the cornerback position where coach Mike Tomlin continues to jockey players around in an attempt to correct that inefficiency. Baltimore figures to take full advantage as will we. TAKING: RAVENS -1
THE REST
Chargers 5-3 at Dolphins 4-3
There's no shame losing to the Chiefs and Broncos recently as the Chargers have done their past two games, but that doesn't mean there aren't concerns. San Diego is hurting -- down to rookie running back Branden Oliver, who may be talented, but is still cutting his teeth. DB Brandon Flowers makes a huge difference and he's on the shelf along with other significant defensive players. Even though QB Philip Rivers is having an outstanding campaign, his offensive line has not been good and they figure to have their hands full with Miami's talented and aggressive pass rush. The Dolphins' defence is an unheralded group but is strong in all facets. That should be the difference in this one. TAKING: DOLPHINS -1 1/2
Jaguars 1-7 at Bengals 4-2-1
Human nature applies to athletes and, say what you will, but it is difficult to get up emotionally when playing these Jaguars. We've seen superior teams have brain cramps against them and this one sets up really well for the Bengals to fall victim to. A slumping Cincinnati team earned a monstrous win over division- leading Ravens last week. After this one, they are on a short week before hosting divisional contending Browns. Not only will the Bengals still be without top receiver A.J. Green, they've now lost defensive leader Vontaze Burfict for a few games. Yes, the Jags have won just five of their past 19 games but their defence has been noticeably better, holding three of their past four foes to fewer than 18 points. TAKING: JAGUARS +11
Redskins 3-5 at Vikings 3-5
Robert Griffin III returns to the field and while it makes for good headlines, we're not so sure it helps the Redskins in the short term. Let's not forget that RG3 has just one win in his past seven starts and that was this year's opener versus Jacksonville. It's also not an ideal scheduling situation for the Redskins, having to travel on a short week, following an emotional road win in Dallas on Monday. The Vikings return home after two away and while they retool their offence, the defence has seen significant improvement under defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. These two have faced off each of the past four years with the Vikings taking three of the four. No reason they can't do the same here and a win earns us a cover. TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Jets 1-7 at Chiefs 4-3
Spotting prohibitive points with the Chiefs might be considered risky, but it sure beats jumping on this Jets train wreck. Kansas City has been playing very well, winning five of six after an 0-2 start. But this isn't about them as much as it is a fade of Rex Ryan's team. The Jets keep turning the ball over and while that can be random among teams, New York's personnel is more prone to it than others. QB Geno Smith was the ringleader but replacing him with 34-year old Michael Vick hardly figures to correct things. The Jets are vulnerable on defence as well, allowing at least 24 points to seven of eight opponents and 30+ four more times. Jets have just one interception on the year! TAKING: CHIEFS -9 1/2
Rams 2-5 at 49ers 4-3
Many are pointing at St. Louis' sudden rash of injuries but as valid as that might be, the Niners' infirmary is just as busy. In what looks to be a battle of attrition, prefer to accept the double-digits being offered especially with the familiarity factor here. These two hooked up just three weeks ago and the Rams had San Fran on the ropes before self-destructing on a bunch of blunders that led to a 34-17 win, the Niners with a late pick six for the cover. The 49ers have been favoured in six of seven games played so far, but they've spotted more than 4 1/2 only once, resulting in a 28-20 straight-up loss to the Bears as a seven-point choice. TAKING: RAMS +10
Broncos 6-1 at Patriots 6-2
Let's see. There are three late afternoon games. Do we watch Rams at Niners, Raiders at Seahawks or this one? While history will support the Patriots taking home points, the Broncos are clearly the best team in the NFL right now and giving away just a field goal no matter who the opponent might be seems like the prudent play. At full strength, New England would still be up against it here. But with some key pieces like LB Jerod Mayo and RB Steven Ridley sidelined, it will be that much tougher. Denver has been crushing teams. It has improved on defence and the offence is loaded with weapons. History may point to Tom Brady but current form points to the visitor. TAKING: BRONCOS -3
Raiders 0-7 at Seahawks 4-3
A rookie quarterback on a winless team heading into CenturyLink? It's a tough sell, we know. But spotting huge points like this in the NFL is hazardous. Besides, it's not like the Seahawks are rocking and rolling like they were a year ago. They had lost consecutive games before squeaking by the defenceless Panthers last week. Seattle brass has tried to gloss over their departures and injured players but it doesn't wash. The Seahawks defence that led the league a year ago with 39 takeaways is currently tied for 28th with just seven turnovers through seven games. Seattle's passing game has taken a hit as well with both Golden Tate and Percy Harvin playing elsewhere. TAKING: RAIDERS +15
Colts 5-3 at Giants 3-4
It's feast or famine with the Giants as they either win or get crushed. All four of the G-Men's defeats have been by 10 or more and now they get an angry Colts squad that was embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week. Prefer to hitch our wagon to Andrew Luck and his mates than this erratic New York bunch as Indy had won five straight before getting trounced last Sunday. Indianapolis has shown a penchant for bouncing back as it has won 13 of 14 after a loss. The Giants return from a bye but they are still minus some key players and they had dropped a pair by a combined 58-21 prior to their week off. The Colts should get back in win column here. TAKING: COLTS -3
DAVE COKIN
NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT VANCOUVER CANUCKS
PLAY: NASHVILLE PREDATORS
I’ve mentioned many times that I try to watch as many games as possible, either live or on tape, for more than entertainment purposes. The idea is to get a truer read than the box score can indicate, and I think a good example of how that can produce some good plays is this particular matchup.
The Predators are coming into Vancouver off a loss at Calgary. If you just glance at the box of that game, it doesn’t really give any info away. Watching the game generated a different reaction for this observer, and I’ll try and put that to use tonight.
Nashville took a 2-1 lead into the third period against the Flames on Friday night. But that was a tenuous edge, as the Preds really weren’t playing with much intensity the way I saw it. Sure enough, the more energized home team got it rolling in the final frame and Calgary put together a 3-0 surge in less than five minutes to take command of the game. Nashville did wake up some after that and cut the margin to 4-3 but they couldn’t get the tie and the Flames earned a deserved upset win.
I’m expecting much better from the Predators tonight. I believe they’re a strong squad this season, and good teams usually find a way to bounce back from flat performances. So I’m expecting a strong effort from this Nashville side tonight.
The Predators will also be on fresher legs than Vancouver. The Canucks got a good win at Edmonton last night, but it was by no means easy. That’s key here as the Canucks are already 0-2 on the second of back to backs, and they’re now an ugly 1-9 in that scenario going back to last season.
The early season analytics are pretty decisive here. Nashville has the considerably better numbers. Add in the poor performance at Calgary and no rest for Vancouver and I believe it’s an advantage situation for the road team. No line on this game as I’m posting this, but as long as it’s not crazy, I expect to be on the Predators on Sunday evening.
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay +7
The Buccs may not be showing it in the win column, but this team is making improvements in HC Lovie Smith's first season. Tampa Bay is just 1-6 SU, but four of the losses came by a grand total of just 20 points. They lost each of those games by 6 points or less, including two in overtime. The Buccs are just a handful of plays away from a potential 5-2 record. And let's not forget in the middle of the losses was an impressive 27-24 win in Pittsburgh. This is an under-valued football team ATS, while the Browns are getting a little too much attention. After their own win over the Steelers, Cleveland got whipped by Jacksonville and then beat Oakland in a sloppy performance last time out, coming back to earth a bit. Finally, Tampa Bay backers have grown used to backing an under-valued squad and have been rewarded for doing so with a 20-8 ATS run in their last 28 road games against teams with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Andy Iskoe
Baltimore +2
Coming off the best game of his career, QB Roethlisberger and the Steelers seek to avenge its week 2 Thursday night 26-6 loss at Baltimore. That was a critical game for the Ravens who had lost a week earlier, also at home, and to Division rival Cincinnati (who just completed a series sweep of the Ravens last Sunday). This is another critical game, but for both teams. The public, which bet Baltimore from an underdog to a 3 point road favorite at Cincinnati, will likely jump ship this week and support the Steelers off of that impressive win. More often than not, when the public zigs, it's time to zag. Especially when the "zaggee" has the better defense. Baltimore ranks #2 in scoring defense, allowing 16.4 ppg, 8.1 points less than Pittsburgh (#21). They also allow nearly a full yard per rush less (3.7 vs 4.5) and 1.4 yards less per pass completion. That Pittsburgh is favored by less than a FG at home indicates that the linesmakers, who favored Baltimore by 2 ½ at home in that first meeting, believe not just that Baltimore is the better team, but that the gap has widened. Baltimore completes its own Divisional sweep, winning by from 6 to 10 points.
Big Al
Denver Broncos ae New England Patriots
Pick: Denver Broncos
These two teams met twice last season. New England won 34-31 in the regular season, but Denver got the better of Tom Brady & Co. in the Playoffs, with a 26-16 win. Some folks might be attracted to New England due to the Playoff Revenge angle, but NFL teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat have actually burned money over the years, and especially when their opponent is off back to back ATS wins. In that situation since 1983, our revengers are a poor 28-49, including 0-for-9 in the past five seasons. Indeed, just last week, we had this situation occur, and Denver won and covered vs. San Diego, which was playing with revenge from a loss to Denver in the Playoffs last season. New England did explode for 51 points last week. Unfortunately, teams off games in which they scored 50 or more points have only covered 30 of 74 since 1983, including 8 of 22 vs. foes off back to back wins. Take Denver minus the points.
Golden Retriever
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Washington Redskins
Yes, everybody knows Robert Griffin III is back on the field. Some will like to go "Betting Against the Public" here. But don't be overreacted, this line is now a Pick'em, either RG III plays or not will still be within a field goal. That means who wins the game will cover it automatically, no team gets a better line. So this is a strategy to betting against people who are thinking of betting against the public.
Bruce Marshall
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
While Blake Bortles continues to learn the NFL ropes and is vulnerable to killer mistakes such as last Sunday's pair of picks returned for TDs by Miami, the Jags are nonetheless doing a few things very well in recent weeks. Their defense hasn't permitted more than 17 points in the last four games (the Dolphin pick sixes were the fault of the offense), and ex-Michigan QB Denard Robinson (doesn't Brady Hoke wish he had him back in Ann Arbor!) now has cracked the 100-yard barrier two straight games. Meanwhile, Cincy has displayed little KO power since key WR A.J. Green's toe injury, so the Bengals might need to hope for a couple of more errors by Bortles to extend the margin.