Kyle Hunter
Broncos vs. Patriots
Play: Under 54½
It seems like the world is on the over in this game, and that's part of the reason I like the under here. Generally in the NFL, if it seems too good to be true it usually is. Both of these defenses are better than they were a year ago. The other big reason I like the under here is the weather. The rain is expected to be over by the time the game starts, but strong winds and temperatures in the 30's are going to make it tough to throw the ball. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected in this game. No matter how good of a quarterback you are, that kind of wind is tough to throw the ball in. Expect more running in this one, and that means the clock keeps moving.
Jack Jones
Denver Broncos -3
I know the Denver Broncos got revenge in the AFC Championship Game last year, but they have not forgotten their 31-34 (OT) loss at New England during the regular season. They led that game 24-0 at halftime and let it slip away, eventually losing in overtime to the Patriots after getting outscored 34-7 after intermission. Look for them to get out to another big lead in this one and to hold onto it this time due to their vastly improved defense.
All the moves the Broncos made to improve their stop unit this offseason are really paying off. They are allowing just 20.3 points and 315.3 yards per game to rank 4th in the league in total defense. Considering they are almost always playing from ahead, I have been impressed with the way this defense has buckled down and not given up garbage touchdowns in the second half like they did a year ago.
Denver has been nearly as potent offensively as it was a year ago, too. It is putting up 32.0 points per game while averaging 398.4 total yards per game. That’s impressive when you consider it has faced a very difficult schedule to this point. Opposing defenses are only giving up 21.9 points and 331 yards per game, so the Broncos are scoring 10.1 points and gaining 67 more yards than their opponents are allowing on average.
There’s no question that the Patriots are playing their best football of the season, but it has come against a relatively soft schedule. Their four straight wins have come against the likes of the Bengals, Bills, Jets and Bears, and three of those were at home. While their numbers are now solid, they are nowhere near as dominant as the Broncos. They are gaining 363.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 340.5 yards per game on defense.
New England has some key injuries coming into this game, and it cannot afford to be without these players and win against the best team in the league Denver. Top pass rusher Chandler Jones and top linebacker Jerod Mayo are both out with injuries. Peyton Manning is going to exploit those losses as this Patriots stop unit is just average without these two.
Manning and company racked up 507 total yards in their 26-16 win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last year, outgaining them 507-320 for the game. The Broncos have won 21 of their last 26 games overall dating back to last season. A whopping 20 of those wins have come by 7 points or more, so they are not only beating teams, they are dominating them.
Denver is 25-11 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 20-7 ATS after the first month of the season over the last three years. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
Ray Monohan
Denver vs. New England
Play: Over 53½
Brady vs. Manning again. It says a lot making the Pats an underdog at home but I don’t think it says enough that they are only +3, with what I think is a HIGH total of 55. Brady may be finding his rhythm offensively but I don’t like the Pats defense to be able to contain the Broncos all that much.
Manning is having another strong season and is surrounded by the stronger supporting cast. Especially defensively where the Broncos have the right players up front to hassle Brady. This might be a playoff preview but won’t be one for the ages.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 16-4-1 in Broncos last 21 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Broncos last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 40-15 in Patriots last 55 games on fieldturf.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
I think Cleveland is getting way too much respect against the Buccaneers. I really liked what I saw from the Browns early on, but the offense has not looked good since starting center Alex Mack went down with an injury. Cleveland managed just 266 yards of total offense in a shocking 6-24 loss to Jacksonville in Week 7 and only accumulated 306 yards against the Raiders. In fact, the Browns were outgained on the game by Oakland 387 to 306. I’m not saying Cleveland shouldn’t be favored in this matchup, but 6.5-points is way too much.
I’ll admit that I expected a lot more out of this Tampa Bay team than what we have seen so far, but they have had some promising performances of late. They went on the road and beat the Steelers 27-24 in Week 4 and nearly upset the Saints on the road in a 31-37 overtime defeat. It’s also worth noting that 4 of the Buccaneers 6 losses have come by 6-points. I expect this team to continue to play hard under Lovie Smith and I look for them to keep improving as the season goes on.
One of the big problems for Tampa Bay this season has been their inability to get anything going on the ground. They have rushed for less than 90 yards in each of their last 5 games. If there’s a team that can help the Buccaneers have some success running the ball, it’s the Browns. Cleveland comes in 30th in the league, giving up an average 143.4 ypg, and their 4.8 yards/carry allowed is the 31st worst mark. This should have Tampa Bay’s offense poised for one of their better performances of the season and with the way Cleveland’s offense has struggled since the injury to Mack, it wouldn’t come as a huge shock if the Buccaneers won this game outright.
This has been the time of year where the Buccaneers have really started to show some value. Over the last 3 seasons, Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of November. They are also an impressive 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 4 of their last 6 games.
Couple of nice systems in play as well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 2 out of their last 3 games with a marginal winning record (51% to 60%) against a team with a losing record are just 36-72 (33%) ATS since 1983, while road underdogs who have won 25% or less of their games after a stretch of 5 games where they have been beaten by the spread by 42 or more combined points are 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati Bengals -10
I know this is a big number to lay in the NFL, but I really like Cincinnati in this spot. The Bengals got a huge win last week over Baltimore and I look for them to carry over that momentum with one of their best showing of the season against Jacksonville. The Bengals also get a big emotional lift here with the return of wide out A.J. Green, who is without question their most important offensive player. The Jaguars have shown some signs of being more competitive, but it's come against mediocre and bad teams. They are not ready to compete with a team like Cincinnati. Turnovers have been a major problem for Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense and I don't expect them to play a clean game against a Cincinnati defense that has forced 2 or more turnovers in 5 of their 7 games. You also have to factor in the Bengals have a big time homefield advantage that tends to get overlooked by the public.
Key Trends - Bengals are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 in the 2nd half of the season against bad defensive teams who are giving up 5.65+ yards/play, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record.
Jesse Schule
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Under
The defending champs got back on track on the road in Carolina last week, defeating the Panthers by a score of 13-9. They terrorized Cam Newton, limiting him to 171 yards and an INT on 12-of-22 passing. The Seahawks return home to host the winless Oakland Raiders this Sunday, and I expect to see the home team dominate this game with their defense and ground game.
Seattle has struggled a little offensively this year, but they still own the league's #2 running game averaging 148 yards per game. The Raiders are likely to get a healthy dose of Beast Mode today, and all those running plays will take a little time off the clock.
Rookie QB Derek Carr has thrown for 1,517 yards and nine TDs, but most of that production has come at home in Oakland. He threw for just 174 yards and an INT on 21-of-34 passing in his last start on the road, a 16-9 loss at New England. In fact the Raiders have seen the total go under in four straight road games.
The Seahawks have seen the total go under in eight of their last 10 home games, and the weather in Seattle can always be a factor in November.
Here is a weather report from Sea-Tac Airport: Sunday. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch likely. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. Southeast wind 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night. Rain likely. Rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch likely. Lows near 50. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
Larry Ness
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Pick: San Diego Chargers
San Diego was on a roll with five consecutive wins to claim the AFC's best record heading into Week 7 before losing 23-20 to visiting Kansas City on Oct 19 and falling 35-21 at division-leading Denver just four days later. The Chargers now look to get back on track Sunday while putting an end to a three decade-long road drought against the Miami Dolphins. That’s right, the Dolphins have won the past SEVEN home meetings against the Chargers, including divisional playoff wins in 1983 and 1993. The Chargers haven't won in Miami since that unforgettable 41-38 overtime victory in the divisional playoff round on Jan 2, 1982 (known as the Kellen Winslow game!).
Ending their long drought in Miami will NOT be easy for the Chargers. The pass defense has allowed Alex Smith and Peyton Manning to post QB ratings of 103.4 and 124.2 the last two games, with those QBs combining for four TD passes without an INT in 63 attempts. Note that the Chargers’ defensive woes began the game before its loss to KC, when the still winless Raiders took them to the wire in a 31-28 San Diego win. In that one, rookie Derek Carr passed for 282 yards with four TDs and just one INT while posting a 107.7 QB rating.
Now Miami’s Ryan Tannehill is no Peyton Manning but he’s led Miami to THREE wins in its last four games, as the Dolphins have averaged 29.0 PPG in that span (low of 24 points). He’s averaged 248.8 YPG passing and in two of those four games, has posted QB ratings of over 100 (109.3 & 123.6). I like his chances against a wounded San Diego defense which has allowed an average of 28.6 PPG on 395.3 YPG over its last three games.
As for the Chargers, they will NEED to score to win and the onus will be on QB Philip Rivers. The absence of RB Ryan Mathews has caught up to San Diego, which managed to average just 65.0 YPG on the ground in its back-to-back losses. The lack of balance has caught up with Rivers as well, as after averaging 303.6 YPG through the air with 14 TDs and only one interception during San Diego's five-game winning streak, Rivers hasn't been NEARLY as sharp with an average of 228.5 YPG and three INTs (he has thrown five TDs, though) in his last two.
However, the Chargers will be treated to San Diego-like weather here in Miami (forecast is a high of 77 and sunny!), setting up perfect conditions. With all its injuries, San Diego is still a better team than Miami. Except for Miami’s Week 1 win over the Pats (New England led 20-10 at the half but NEVER scored again in that 33-20 loss?), the Dolphins have only beaten 0-7 Oakland, 1-7 Jacksonville and a Chicago team which is about ready to implode (Bears have lost FOUR of five and are headed to NOWHERE, fast!).
Chargers get their first win in Miami since 1982.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas City / Jets Under 42: The Jets offense is really bad and even though Vick is in there for this one I just don't see a whole lot of improvement coming from the Unit. Making it worse is the fact that they are taking on a tough Kansas City defense that has allowed just 18.3 ppg overall, including just 15.7 ppg at home. Oh and the Jets score just 16.3 ppg on the road. New York's defense has been very bad this year, allowing 24 points or more in every game so far, but this is not an explosive Chiefs offense that can score in bunches. I look for a game in the mid to upper 30s at best here.
Philadelphia -1.5 Over HOUSTON: Yes the Texans are an improved team by they still are not a great team and I do not feel they are better than the Eagles. Their offense is still a work in progress and while they do allow just 20.8 ppg, their defense is still 23rd in the league overall and 28th vs the Pass. The Eagles are a team that will make them pay for giving up yards. Philadelphia is 6th in the league in passing and they average 29 ppg, which is 4th in the league. The Texans have just one win vs a winning team this year, and while the Eagles have lost their last 2 rood games, they could have easily won both. This is a very good Eagles team that will take out a very mediocre Texans team this week, especially with the Texans checking in at 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS win.
BEST OF THE REST
Cincinnati/ Jacksonville Under 43.5: The Bengals have not played great defense this year, but it is still a very good defense that is more than capable of shutting down this pathetic Jaguars offense. The Bengal offense has not been great this year and they will be taking on a Jaguars defense that has allowed just 16.5 ppg in their last 4 games. This defense is playing much better right now. We also note that the Bengals had been dealing with many offensive injuries this year and while they do AJ Green back, they may not keep him in their a whole lot should the Bengals get up big, as can be expected. The Bengals will rely on their defense in this one, knowing that they do not have to do a whole lot on offense to win it.
Matt Fargo
Redskins vs. Vikings
Play: Over 43
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. The Vikings head home after two straight road games, both of which stayed under the total, and they have now gone under in their last three games with the average points scored in those games being only 28.3 ppg. The offense has been the big issue but Minnesota goes up against the Redskins defense that has played well lately but is 23rd in the league in points allowed. Washington's offense has been surprisingly good despite its 3-5 record and lack of points as it is ranked 7th in total offense and the return of RGIII should not miss a beat and give it an added edge of more play calling abilities. The Vikings have been playing solid defense the last three weeks but I expect that streak to end here. Washington has stayed under the total in two straight games so we get value based on that as well. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Redskins last eight games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game while the Over is 8-3 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Oliver Alonso
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Baltimore Ravens -1
It’s “Big Ben” vs. Joe Flacco which could mean that this game has the potential to be a shootout but I expect a gameplan of Baltimore having dominated the game. Pittsburgh has an aging defense which was a major issue last season for the Steelers and it remains a concern after the unit was gouged repeatedly this season. The Pittsburgh defense has still been one of the worst units in the NFL this season and this matchup went poorly for Pittsburgh in week 2 with the Ravens winning 26-6 at home. John Harbaugh will keep the defense over Le’Veon Bell, he knows that Pitt offense won’t work if the rushing game can’t be established.
All three Baltimore losses have come by seven or fewer points and the Ravens look like the much more legit 5-3 team statistically when comparing these squads. The Ravens are 75 points superior in point-differential and Pittsburgh has played the second weakest schedule in the NFL at this point. John Harbaugh doesn’t take kindly to losing and his Ravens are on a 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 after a defeat. With Justin Forsett as a Workhorse the Ravens have won games, eating the clock and keeping his defense out of the field.
Mike Lundin
Detroit Red Wings vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Detroit Red Wings -1½ +125
The Sabres can't get anything going for them this season and are coming off three consecutive losses getting outscored 12-2. The Red Wings on the other hand are looking to make it three wins in a row, winning both of their last two games by at least a two goal margin.
Buffalo has the very worst power play in the league, scoring one goal on 38 opportunities. They are not likely improve on those numbers tonight facing the Red Wings top ranked penalty kill. The Red Wings have won all of the last four meetings in Buffalo and 20 of the last 24 meetings overall.
EZWINNERS
Miami Dolphins -2
I'm not seeing much love at all for Miami in this match up against San Diego this week. Most people are expecting the Chargers to get back on track, but San Diego has lost two straight and once again are dealing with multiple injuries. The Dolphins defense has been solid, its been quarterback Ryan Tannehill that has been inconsistent. I like Tannehill to be on his game in this matchup against a Chargers defense that will most likely be missing Cornerback Jason Verrett, linebacker Manti Te'o and safety Jahleel Addae. Lay the points.
Denver Broncos -3
The Broncos and the Patriots are both rolling, but I don't believe that they are on the same level. New England still has plenty of area's that can be exploited, but they have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league so far and that level of competition has not been able to exploit those weaknesses. The Bronco's will do just that. Denver's numbers have came against a much tougher schedule and I don't believe New England has closed the gap since the AFC championship game. Lay the points.
Baltimore Ravens -2
The Steelers put up huge numbers against the Colts last week and they are seeking revenge for a week 2 loss at Baltimore, but I like the Ravens in this spot. The Steelers defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and the Steelers have had one of the softest schedules in the NFL so far this season. The Ravens defense has held Big Ben and company to an average of 15 points in the last three meetings and Baltimore has won three out of the last four meetings at Heinz Field. Lay the points.
Red Dog Sports
Panathinakos vs. Trikala
Play: Trikala +15
Trikala is 2-1 in Greece action. They are led by former Miami Hurricane Kenny Kadji with 14.7 ppg and 7.7 rebs. Justin Ingram is at 17 ppg, Nate Bowie 10 points/8 assists, Cupkovic 10 ppg, Brian Tracey 8 ppg and Steve Panos plays some minutes.
Panathinakos is 3-0 in the Greek league but only beat Kifisia by 10 in their opener. The other two wins were blowouts. Pan just played in the Euroleague on October 30 vs. Fenerbahce Ulker and plays Armani on November 6.
Panathinakos and Olympiakos are the top teams in the Greek league every year. Hopefully, Trikala can play well at home and the visitors will be more interested in EL action coming up. I hope to see Pan win by just 10 to 12 points.
Alex Smart
Charlotte vs. New York
Play: Over
The Knicks split four meetings with the Hornets last season after winning 125-96 on Jan. 24 behind a career-high 62 points from C Anthony. The seven-time All-Star is averaging 28.2 points against Charlotte for his highest mark against any team in the league, and has poured down 34.8 ppg in this series the last five- meetings . Im betting CA will once again be looking forward to running the floor against the Hornets. Meanwhile, Charlotte lost Saturday 71-69 to Memphis in a grueling physical affair and will be ready to open up in this spot. The Hornets are a defense first team, but can light up when need be. After last nights slow motion contest Im sure their ready to run and their defense a little soft because the toll of the inside punishment that it took on them. Im betting on a fairly fast game and total combined score that eclipses the total.
Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings.Over is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 Sunday game.Over is 9-1-1 in Hornets last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 20-6 in Hornets last 26 games following a S.U. loss.
Nelly
Philadelphia Eagles - over Houston Texans
The Houston running game is starting to make an impact and a team that rushes more often than any other team got a big win last week to move to 4-4 after losing three in a row. As usual QB play has been an issue with Ryan Fitzpatrick leading a limited passing game and the Texans have struggled on defense against the pass. The Eagles are one of the top passing teams in the NFL but Philadelphia enters this game in a second straight road game after a crushing defeat, losing a game they dominated statistically on an Arizona big play in the final two minutes. Philadelphia's only road win came in dramatic fashion with great fortune in Indianapolis and five of the last six games for Philadelphia have been decided by six or fewer points. Despite the reputations, Philadelphia has been the better defensive team however as Houston is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. The Eagles are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 57 percent passing compared with a shaky Texans pass defense that has surrendered 271 yards per game and 65 percent completions. J.J. Watt gets more attention but the Philadelphia defense has 2.7 sacks per game while Houston posted just 1.9. The linebacker crew for the Texans is also crushed with injuries right which should play perfectly into success for Chip Kelly's offense that provides a lot of different looks. Houston has been out-gained in six of eight games this season and a big play Eagles team should bounce back. Road favorites of 3 or fewer points have covered 60% of the time this season in the NFL.