Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 20

NHL

Ottawa at Vancouver
The Senators look to take advantage of a Vancouver team that is coming off a 5-1 loss to Chicago and is 0-6 in its last 6 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Ottawa is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+160)

Game 51-52: Toronto at Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.914; Carolina 10.292
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under

Game 53-54: San Jose at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.029; Colorado 11.815
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over

Game 55-56: Detroit at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.271; Anaheim 11.567
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+105); Over

Game 57-58: Ottawa at Vancouver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.884; Vancouver 10.694
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+160); Under

NCAAB

Georgia Tech vs. LSU
The Tigers look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a neutral site underdog. LSU is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Yellow Jackets favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3)

Game 741-742: Arkansas State at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 47.805; Ohio 61.538
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 11
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-11)

Game 743-744: Rhode Island at Nebraska (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 57.843; Nebraska 65.833
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 8; 126
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 10 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+10 1/2); Under

Game 745-746: South Alabama at Florida State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 49.508; Florida State 67.253
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 17 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Florida State by 20 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+20 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: Iowa vs. Creighton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 62.904; Creighton 59.877
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 3; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa by 1 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-1 1/2); Under

Game 749-750: Arkansas-Little Rock at Michigan State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 49.100; Michigan State 70.317
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 21; 136
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 22 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+22 1/2); Over

Game 751-752: Washington at St. Louis (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 63.863; St. Louis 69.031
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5; 133
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 135
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Under

Game 753-754: Washington State at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 57.813; Portland 60.463
Dunkel Line: Portland by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Portland

Game 755-756: Western Michigan vs. Colorado (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 57.566; Colorado 54.959
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 1
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-1)

Game 757-758: Iona vs. Maryland (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 66.199; Maryland 58.093
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8; 148
Vegas Line: Iona by 6; 156
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-6); Under

Game 759-760: Temple vs. Wichita State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 68.820; Wichita State 68.407
Dunkel Line: Even; 136
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 1 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+1 1/2); Over

Game 761-762: Purdue vs. Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 69.377; Alabama 69.171
Dunkel Line: Even; 125
Vegas Line: Alabama by 2 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+2 1/2); Under

Game 763-764: Old Dominion vs. Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 57.847; Kentucky 79.547
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 765-766: South Florida vs. Penn State (2:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 57.297; 59.269
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 767-768: Western Kentucky vs. VCU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 49.756; VCU 55.955
Dunkel Line: VCU by 6
Vegas Line: VCU by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+9 1/2)

Game 769-770: Georgia Tech vs. LSU (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 58.165; LSU 57.124
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 3
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3)

Game 771-772: Tulsa vs. St. Joseph's (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.679; St. Joseph's 58.291
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-2); Over

Game 773-774: Northwestern vs. Seton Hall (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 65.119; Seton Hall 61.103
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 4; 131
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 2 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-2 1/2); Under

Game 775-776: Houston Baptist at CS-Fullerton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 36.271; CS-Fullerton 55.017
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 777-778: Nicholls State at UL-Lafayette (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 40.638; UL-Lafayette 58.133
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 779-780: Towson vs. NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 42.423; NC-Greensboro 43.866
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 781-782: Belmont vs. Middle Tennessee State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 66.854; Middle Tennessee State 61.339
Dunkel Line: Belmont by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 783-784: Eastern Kentucky vs. Lehigh (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 50.965; Lehigh 54.151
Dunkel Line: Lehigh by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 785-786: William & Mary vs. Liberty (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 45.227; Liberty 47.400
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 787-788: Duquesne at Valparaiso (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 63.602; Valparaiso 60.722
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 789-790: Norfolk State vs. TCU (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 48.486; TCU 50.869
Dunkel Line: TCU by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: TCU by 6
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+6)

Game 791-792: Mississippi at Marquette (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 61.683; Marquette 72.138
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Marquette by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-6 1/2)

Game 793-794: Western Carolina at Iowa State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.083; Iowa State 64.778
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-12)

Game 795-796: Tennessee State at South Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 48.825; South Carolina 56.499
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+10 1/2)

Game 797-798: SE Missouri State at Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 45.459; Oregon 57.703
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 12
Vegas Line: Oregon by 14
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+14)

Game 799-800: Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.706; Northern Illinois 40.944
Dunkel Line: Eastern Illinois by 7
Vegas Line: Eastern Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (-3)

Game 801-802: Loyola-Chicago at Furman (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 50.296; Furman 54.469
Dunkel Line: Furman by 4
Vegas Line: Furman by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-1 1/2)

Game 803-804: Northern Colorado at Northern Iowa (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 52.579; Northern Iowa 69.165
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-15)

Game 805-806: Montana at San Diego (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 55.900; San Diego 48.218
Dunkel Line: Montana by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-4 1/2)

Game 807-808: Murray State at UAB (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 58.326; UAB 60.437
Dunkel Line: UAB by 2
Vegas Line: UAB by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+5 1/2)

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +8 over Dallas

This is one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports. In this rivalry, it is usually safe to expect the unexpected and with Dallas’s traditional Thanksgiving Day game on deck Thursday, the Redskins offer up even more appeal. The weekend before Thanksgiving two years ago, the Redskins were an 11-point pooch in Dallas and won outright, 7-6 and this one has that same feel only this time the Skins are at home. Yes, Washington has looked really bad, Lady Gaga close-up bad but they were actually better than the Fish last week and have been moving the ball much better lately than their scores have suggested. This is Washington’s Super Bowl game. They’ll show up this week and play their hearts out and may even win outright. ‘Skins unheralded defense and Cowboys preserving for short week has this one set up perfectly for the home dog. Play: Washington +8 (Risking 2.2 units).

Carolina +7 over DETROIT

If you were to look at Detroit’s calendar, there’s likely a spot the size of a pin head marking this game while the contest that follows, a U.S. Thanksgiving Thursday game against the mighty Packers, will be highlighted, flagged, ink-spotted and whatever else that might illuminate it. Overlooking this feisty Carolina bunch could prove costly. The Panthers were a cover machine early in the season when they had a 4-0-1 mark versus spread when taking points. That success had them favored in previous three games with only one cover. Back where they are best and with Detroit QB Matthew Stafford nursing a bad finger, Carolina competes throughout. Play: Carolina +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Cincinnati +7 over BALTIMORE

There are a handful of goofy teams in this league and the Ravens fit right in. Baltimore has defeated the AFC leading Texans, the Jets and the rival Steelers twice. But then they go and lose to dregs like the Jaguars, Titans and Seahawks. The Bengals belong somewhere in between those groups and while that may be confounding, we do know that Cincinnati’s defense is strong enough to cope with whichever Ravens team shows up. This is the most points that have been offered to Cincy supporters all season and following a respectable showing with Pittsburgh, there’s no reason not to accept them. Play: Cincinnati +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA +100 over Oakland

Oakland brings a swagger here after pulling upset in San Diego and then having 10 days to prepare for this one. Scheduling hardly seems fair seeing that the Vikings are on a short week after getting steamrolled by the Packers on Monday night. Or was it a blessing? RB Adrian Peterson should be fresh after carrying the ball just 14 times last week and now faces a run defense that ranks 25th in the league. Raiders have shown a propensity to fail after successes and being the league leaders in penalties doesn’t help matters. This is a classic case of sell high and buy low, as Carson Palmer and the Raiders won impressively in prime time while the Vikes were bludgeoned by Packers. Now the Raiders are an appealing and tiny favorite on the road and one we urge you to back off from. Play: Minnesota +100 (Risking 2 units).

THE REST

Tampa Bay +14 over GREEN BAY

Suggesting the Bucs here is like trying to convince you to take the homely girl to the prom, even though the pretty girl is available, simply because you’ll be a better person for it. The Packers are everyone’s beauty queens but continually covering double-digits spots in this league is never an easy assignment. Play: Tampa Bay +14 (No bets).

Buffalo +2 over MIAMI

Just three weeks ago, you would not have believed that a winless Miami team could possibly be favored in this contest. But after the Dolphins won consecutive games and the Bills did just the opposite, here we are. Difference being that Buffalo lost to the Jets and Cowboys while the Fish defeated two stiffs. Play: Buffalo +2

CLEVELAND –1 over Jacksonville

Most of you know what you’ll usually find in around a ‘dawg’ pound. Even so, it is difficult to recommend a Jacksonville squad whose only road win in five tries occurred at Indianapolis last week against those dead horses. Jags other four losses on the road have resulted in Jags being outscored 99-50. Play: Cleveland –1 (No bets).

ST. LOUIS –1 over Seattle

Neither side can be endorsed with much conviction but given the choice, prefer having hometown Rams to poor-traveling Seahags. This will be only the second home game for St. Louis since October 2nd and first in three weeks with last one resulting in win over Saints. Play: St. Louis –1 (No bets).

Arizona +10 over SAN FRANCISCO

Can’t knock the Niners but we’re still not prepared to spotting double-digits with this rather pedestrian offense. 49ers have been playing some sound football all season but this is not an 8-1 team. Cardinals are feeling better about themselves with John Skelton producing at quarterback, off consecutive wins. San Fran is way ahead in its division and could easily be more focused on upcoming Thanksgiving ‘Brother Bowl’ in Baltimore on Thursday night. Play: Arizona +10 (No bets).

San Diego +3½ over CHICAGO

This seems simple as the Chargers have dropped four straight while the Bears are at top of their game, having won four straight. Unless you are new to this league, you know it doesn’t quite work that way. Chicago could be emotionally spent after two impressive wins over Lions and Eagles while San Diego has had 10 days rest. Play: San Diego +3½ (No bets).

ATLANTA –6 over Tennessee

These two have the same record? If we dig a bit deeper, we find that three of Atlanta’s four losses have come against a fierce trio consisting of Packers, Bears and Saints. The Titans past three victories occurred against the Browns, Colts and Panthers. Line is short considering difference in class. Play: Atlanta –6 (No bets).

N.Y. GIANTS –5 over Philadelphia

Perhaps there is a hatred for Philadelphia that brings out the best in its opponents. If true, none will want to express that disdain more than these Giants, returning home after two road toughies and needing the win to hold top position in NFC East. Eagles have won just three of past 12 games and continue to be overvalued every week. Play: N.Y. Giants –5 (No bets).

Wunderdog

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Arizona Cardinals +9.5

The Niners are undefeated this season against the spread. When you have that situation this late in the season, you start getting some serious line value the other way. This will be a tough spot for San Francisco to get motivated, as they have all but wrapped up the NFC West just nine games into the season with their stellar 8-1 record. That gives them a five game lead with just seven to play. And, they are coming off a huge win vs. the Giants and they have Baltimore on tap. In the meantime, they get the lowly Cardinals at home which can't excite them. The Cardinals have found a little unexpected benefit in the arm of John Skelton and won as a huge dog last week at Philadelphia. Skelton has achieved a higher QB rating than Kolb this season. The 49ers may also be limited in their use of Frank Gore who injured his knee last week and with such a big cushion, I doubt they will put him in harm’s way often, as this game doesn't mean much. The Niners have already shown signs of contentment when playing bad teams with a 10-point win vs. Cleveland and an 8-point win vs. Washington. This one certainly sets up to be even closer yet. The Cardinals are now 16-7 ATS off a game where they passed for 150 yards or less, and the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these clubs. In their last 32 games vs. great teams (.750+), Arizona has gone 24-8 against the number. Under Ken Wisenhunt, this team is 12-3 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game. Take the Cards with the points.

Stephen Nover

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Atlanta Falcons -6

Falcons coach Mike Smith is in the running for bonehead coaching move of the season after having his team go for a first-down on a fourth-and-one from his own 29 in overtime against New Orleans last week.

That move, of course, backfired. Smith and the Atlanta players have been hearing about it all week. They are anxious to end their frustrations against Tennessee.

If you discount games against the Saints, the Falcons have won 20 of their last 22 regular-season home contests. They have been golden in this price range covering eight of the last 10 times they've been favored in the 3 1/2 to 10 point range at home.

Matt Ryan has a 14-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight November games. He has a strong history of playing much better in Georgia Dome than on the road.

The Titans have failed to cover in six of their past nine road contests. They are 6-13 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. Their passing attack is down with top receiver Kenny Britt out for the season.

The Falcons have allowed an average of 16.5 points in their last four games with three of those opponents having strong offenses - the Panthers, Lions and Saints. The Titans remain reliant on Chris Johnson, who finally showed some signs of breaking out of his season-long slump in the second half of last week's game against Carolina.

The Panthers do not have a good defense, however. The Falcons rank No. 3 in run defense. Johnson still is not close to being the back he was in 2009. The Titans don't have enough ammunition to trade points with Ryan.

Carlo Campanella

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -1½

Buffalo shocked everyone by opening the season at 4-1, but they were playing above their ability level and have dropped to 5-4 after losing at Dallas, 44-7, last Sunday. The Bills have struggled on the road this season and Sunday's loss moved them to 1-3 in true road games. Miami has finally entered the win column while winning back-to-back games by 28 and 11 points. Miami tries for their third straight victory this weekend and get home field advantage against a Division rival who's defense has allowed 27 points or more in 5 of their 9 games. Buffalo was only 4-12 last season, and hasn't won more than 7 games since 2004, so there's no surprise that they can't keep playing at this inflated level.

Marc Lawrence

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

The Lions let us down in a major way last week when six turnovers opened the door for a Chicago cakewalk. As a result, Detroit returns home tied for 2nd place in the NFC North with the Bears, albeit conceding the division crown to the undefeated Packers. With a battle up next week on Thanksgiving Day against the defending Super Bowl champs, it makes this game a priority for the ?mane? attraction in the Motor City. The problem we have is Detroit?s 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS record in games against non-division opponents that are off back-to-back losses. They are also 1-10 ATS during November against losing teams off a spread loss of 10 or more points. Toss in Carolina?s 7-0 ATS franchise mark in games off a double-digit loss as a favorites in games against a foe off a SU and ATS loss and you can understand our reluctance for wanting to cut the rug with the tunes emanating from Motown this Sunday. We recommend a 1-unit play on Carolina.

Spartan

Chicago Bears -3.5

Talk about opposites getting together. Classic case here with the San Diego Chargers venturing into Soldier Field to do battle with the surging Bears. Last sunday the Bears were our Triple Star release and they manhandled the Lions and the game was never in question. Week before that we had them in Philadelphia and we all know what happened there. Lovie Smith's Bears are playing with that swagger winners have and it's certainly nothing you'll see on the other sideline with this Chargers team that continues to give new meaning to the word under achieve. If you've ever seen a head coach that could get less our of more to the degree of Norv Turner I'd be real curious just who it might be. The Chargers offense is sputtering and now they line up against this Bears unit, I'm just not seeing it guys. On the other side, never thought I would see the day when Mike Martz would accept the running game as a focal point of his offense but Matt Forte has forced his hand. Cutler is lethal provided the line give him sufficient time and keep him upright, so far they have and the results speak clearly. Cutler is playing at as high a level as he ever has and the key thing is he's making good decisions back there and making accurate throws. People can break it down as much as they wish but those are the two main keys to finding success under center in the NFL. If the Bears continue to keep Cutler clean he'll make things miserable for the Chargers secondary. Oh, and one other point. I've known Bears special teams coach from his days at Missouri and the guy is the best special teams coach in the league. Does not hurt to have a play maker like Devin Hester either and now they square off against one of the worst special teams in the league. Needless to say this does not bode well for the Chargers either. Guys I just cannot make a legitimate case here for San Diego. The price is more than right, lay the small number and take the Bears to keep things on track here.

Jeff Scott Sports

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

5 UNIT PLAY

Carolina +7 over DETROIT: I know you don't heae about it too much in the NFL, as opposed to CFB, but this looks to me like a flat spot for the Lions here. Detroit is off a divisional game vs the Bears, in which they thoroughly outplayed them on the field, but 6 TO's led them to losing by 24 points. Now they are taking on a 2-7 Carolina team with a Thanksgiving Day game vs the Packers on deck. I don't know how Detroit will stay focused in this one. Last week Mathew Stafford has one of his worst outing in his career, as he threw 4 picks and had 2 returned for a TD. With Travis Best out the Lions have no balance on offense and teams have been taking away Megatron, who is their only real deep threat. Last week Stafford had to throw 63 times due to no running game and that should not serve them well here as the Panthers are far better vs the pass (14th) than the run (28th). The Carolina offense has been solid all year, checking in at 6th overall and 8th in both passing and rushing and that running game should have success vs a Detroit defense that is 27th vs the run. Using Williams and company on the ground will be a good way to keep the Detroit off the field as well. The Panthers have outgained 7 of their nine opponents this year and they should have a good showing here vs a Detroit team that has come back to earth and has their biggest Turkey Day game in ages on deck. Detroit by no more than a FG. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any away dog that scored 3 points or less last week as a home fav and are facing a team that is off a loss. This system is 16-2 since 1989.

4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Buffalo/ Miami Under 43: A couple of futile offenses enter this game and it should make for a low scoring game. The dolphins offense look good in their opener vs the Pats, but this team has not look good overall as they have put up just 17.6 ppg and 320 ypg overall this year, including an average of 18 ppg and 341 ypg game at home. The Dolphin defense has played really well after that opening game vs the Pats as they have allowed just 17.5 ppg since that game and in their last 4 games this team has really played great defense, allowing just 12.5 ppg. Miami knows they won't outscore teams so they have turned to their defense to try and win games and they should have some success today as well. The Buffalo offense has been figured out and they have really struggled of late putting up just 13.7 ppg and 316 ypg in their last 3 games.Fitzpatrick and that pass offense had been goon at the start of the year, but they have thrown for just 193 ypg in their last 3 games and on the they have averaged just 186 ypg through the air. The Bills have gone back to running the ball with Fred Jackson and they are now 6th in the league in rushing. The Dolphins are 25th in the league in passing and so they have turned to the run of late, as they have run for 118.3 and a solid 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games. The Dolphins will really like running the ball as they face the Bills 23rd run defense (125.4 ypg). Neither team has had great QB so both teams have relied on the run and solid defense of late to win games and for that kind of gameplan 43 points is just to high. Mid 30's at best here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---The OU is 3-14, since 1992 when the Bills are off a game in which they allowed 24 points or more in the first half.

San Diego/ Chicago Over 45: Gonna go with a Bolts double dip here on my top plays. I'll try an not repeat alot of the stats from below. Let's start this pick off with a solid system (Not a Power System Play Though). The Over is 27-6, in November, the last 33 times that a team (Chicago) is off a stretch in which they covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Not too shabby there. We also note that the O/U is 13-6-1 when the Bolts are off a a division loss and 10-1 when they take on a team that allows 7.5 yards or less on punt returns, plus the O/U is 10-1 in Chicago's last 11 as a favorite. The San Diego offense has struggled, but they are in desperation mode right now and I look for Rivers to have a big game vs a Chicago defense that is 29th in the league vs the pass. The Bolts are 27th in the league vs the Run and Matt Forte should have a good game and then that will lead to some big pass plays by Chicago in the second half as San Diego will start to crowd the box. San Diego's road games have averaged 50 ppg, while Chicago's home games have put up 49.6 ppg. I see this one at 50 or above.

3 UNIT PLAY

San Diego +3.5 over CHICAGO: The Chargers are not dead yet, as they reside in the weak AFC West and a win here would go a long way in getting this team back on track.The Chargers were embarrassed at home last week, so going out on the road may be just what they needed. The Chargers offense hasn't played that bad on the road as they have averaged 445 ypg and 25 FD's per game when facing defenses that are not ranked in the top 10. They can move the ball and should be able to have success vs a Chicago defense that is 25th overall (476 ypg) and 29th vs the pass (270 ypg). Last week the Bears crushed Detroit 3713, but that's due to 5 turnover and they allowed 313 yards through the air on their way to being out gained by 413-216. That's one of those misleading finals you read about. I know the bolts have been plagued by TO's this year, but in this must win game i expect Rivers to take care of the ball and come up with a big game. Last week the Bears put up just 216 yards vs a weak Detroit defense and this week they will be facing an angry Chargers defense that is 10th overall (331 ypg), but due to the TO's they are 25th in points allowed (25.3 ppg). Chicago Gains just 315 ypg at home, while they allow 400 ypg at home, so as long a Rivers protects te ball this should be a solid outright win by a Chargers team that's in desperation mode.

2 UNIT PLAY

GREEN BAY -14 over Tampa Bay: I think that Green Bay is looking to move up in the BCS standings they way they have been blowing out teams this year. The Packers have outscored their opponents by 14.9 ppg overall and a whopping 23.2 ppg at home. Green Bay's 4th ranked overall offense will be taking on a Tampa defense that is ranked 31st overall, while the Packs 3ranked passing offense should have a field day vs Tampa's 29th ranked pass defense. The Bucs are 29th in points allowed (25.9 ppg), while the Pack is 1sy in scoring (35.6 ppg). Green Bay does have a a game vs Detroit on deck so this COULD be a flat spot and the reason that this play is not rated higher, but in the end Green bay wants to stay sharp and Tampa just doesn't have enough offense or defense to keep this one close. Green Bay by 17+

1 UNIT PLAY

Cleveland/ Jacksonville Under 34: I Couldn't let this one go by without taking a stab at it. The Jags have averaged just 12.8 ppg on the year, while Cleveland has put up just 14.6 ppg. Jags road games have averaged 29.8 ppg, while Cleveland home games have averaged just 31 ppg. The jags defense is 4th overall and 6th in points allowed, while Cleveland is 6th overall (1st vs the Pass) and 11th in points allowed. Just like the Penn State/ Ohio State game on Saturday, this has the feeling of a 10-7 ballgame.

Rocketman

San Diego @ Chicago
Play: Chicago -3.5

San Diego is now 4-5 overall this year while Chicago comes in with a 6-3 record. San Diego is 1-9 ATS last 3 years on the road when the total is 42 1/2 to 45 points. Chicago is 15-4 ATS since 1992 against AFC West division opponents. San Diego defense is allowing 25.3 points per game overall this year and 27.2 points per game on the road this season. Chicago is 4-1 SU at home this year. Chicago is scoring 26.3 points per game overall this year and 31.4 points per game at home this season. Chicago is 4-1 SU and ATS overall vs San Diego since 1992 including 2-0 SU and ATS at home. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago today!

Matt Fargo

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -6

This should be a good bounceback spot for the Falcons despite last week's tough loss against the Saints. There obviously has been a lot of talk about the call Mike Smith made to go for it on fourth down at his own 29-yard line. As we all know it backfired, allowing the Saints to get great field position and win the game. He said he would do it again and I respect that. The Falcons were hurt by redzone miscommunications and penalties well before that so that overtime call was far from the issue. Tennessee is coming off a much needed win at Carolina but it will be difficult carrying that over into here. The Titans have struggled coming off big wins as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven wins coming off a win by more than two touchdowns. That victory did even their record at 2-2 on the road however the wins have come against teams with a combined 5-13. Tennessee has played one game on the road against a team with a winning record and it was shellacked in Pittsburgh. The Titans are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Teams have averaged 29 carries per game against Tennessee on the road and Atlanta needs to hold true to that. The Falcons running game is solid under Michael Turner and it is 21-1 when Turner has 23 or more carries. Tennessee allows an average of 4.4 ypc on the season and in those road game, it jumps to 4.6 ypc. The Falcons have a very physical offensive line and the goal is to simply out-muscle the Titans at the line of scrimmage, which have allowed at least 109 rushing yards in five straight games. On the other side, the Falcons have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 13 games, including the playoffs, dating to last season. However, Tennessee has Chris Johnson who is coming off his best game of the season with 177 total yards on 31 touches (27 carries and four receptions) against the Panthers. But that was Carolina, which has allowed 100 or more yards rushing in all but two games this year. Johnson has rushed for 53 yards or less in six of the Titans’ nine games this season and that gets extended here. The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a loss while Smith is 15-3 ATS in his 18 games with the Falcons coming off a loss so the bounce angle has worked well. We also are in a spot to play against the Titans as we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 that are coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 8-0 ATS mark the last five years. 3* Atlanta Falcons

Teddy Covers

Panthers @ Lions
PICK: Over 47.5

The Lions played their worst game of the season last Sunday, a six turnover debacle at Chicago. Returning home to the friendly confines of Ford Field against a weak defensive foe is the proper elixir for their current woes. This offense averages four touchdowns per game; loaded with quick strike, big play ability. The Panthers defense has allowed 31 points per game on the highway, and they’ve been very consistent. Every team Carolina has faced on the road this year has scored at least 28 points!

But the Panthers offense matches up well against a mediocre Lions stop unit. Carolina runs the ball extremely well. Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart all rush for 4.7 yards per carry or better, and Newton has averaged more than 330 passing yards per game on the road. That’s bad news for a Lions defense that has real vulnerability to balanced attacks, particularly against mobile QB’s. Every previous Panthers road game this year has produced at least 48 points. Don’t expect this game to be the exception…. Take the Over.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -10

The Niners have covered eight straight and Arizona fits a big negative system that plays on road dogs of more than 7 off a road dog win at +10 or more. Arizona upset the Eagles last week. However we cant trust back up Qb Skelton in a tough spot on the road vs one the leagues top defenses. On the other side the 49ers have plenty of fire power and weapons that could give a mediocre Arizona defense problems. Arizona is 2-8 ats off back to back wins and covers. The Niners are 8-1 ats as favorites of 11 or less vs a .333 or less opponent that comes in off a win. Look for San Francisco to get the win and cover here vs Arizona.

Chip Chirimbes

Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Carolina Panthers +7

Was he just a 'Flash-in-the-pan?' I am referring to Cam Newton of course who like Willie McCovey in 1959 going 4-4 with two triples and two doubles in his debut against the Philadelphia Phillies. Anyway, Detroit off their six turnover performance and total beat down by the Bears need to turn things around quick and the pressure is starting to build. Silly penalties and simple break downs are still holding Lions back. Panthers off worst game of the year with come to play Sunday.

Steve Janus

Arizona Cardinals/San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41

I don't see these two teams going over the total set of 41.5. The 49ers come in allowing just over 15 points per game, but should be able to keep Arizona under that mark with the Cardinals starting John Skelton at quarterback. On the other side of the ball, I expect the 49ers to also struggle to move the ball. Arizona's defense has really picked it up defensively in their last two games, holding St Louis to 13 points and Philadelphia to 17 points.

The fact that this is a division game, only adds to the under being the play. These two teams are well aware of what the other team likes to do, and I expect both teams to play extremely hard. The 49ers want to make sure they don't give anyone in the NFC West hopes of coming back, while the Cardinals will be playing with a lot of confidence riding a two game winning streak.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 vs. NFC West and 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games. BET THE UNDER 41!