EZWINNERS
Buffalo Bills +2
Miami is coming off of back to back wins against the Chiefs and Redskins, but neither of those teams created matchups to take advantage of the Dolphins weakness in their defensive secondary. The Dolphins struggle when they have to cover the entire field and that's what the Buffalo offense will force them to do. The Bills spread passing attack will take advantage of the weak Miami secondary which is going to force the Dolphins offense to match scores. The Buffalo defense struggle to stop power running games, but they won't have to worry about that against Miami and their running back combo of Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. The Dolphins are just 3-9 against the spread in home games since the beginning of last season and should not be favored in this game in my opinion. Take the points.
King Creole
Cardinals / 49ers Under 41
We're going LOW this week in the Bay Area as the HOT Niners take on the Cardinals. This is a division in which 'Unders' are the norm... with a mid-to-high OU line.
4-15 O/U last 3 years: All NFC WEST division games w/ an OU line of 40 > pts. And when the host is off a SU win (SF), the results are 1-9 O/U.
San Fran is laying big points this week (-9.5 to -10).
0-7 O/U L3Y: All DIV home favs of 9 > points playing off a SU win (SF)... w/ an OU line of < 45 points.
The Niners ripped off their 7th STRAIGHT win last Sunday (vs NY Giants).
1-9 O/U L4Y: All GAME 14 3 pts playing off a SU road win as a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog (Arz). These games have gone 1-9 O/Uwhen the OU line is 42 road dogs of > 3 points when BOTH teams are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games... when the OU line os < 43 pts.
Arizona might be only 3-6 SU on the year, but they're on a 2-game WINNING streak (beat the Eagles and Rams L2 weeks).
0-6 O/U L5Y: All .400 .500 opponent.
OPTIMUM line: 41.5 or more pts...
James Patrick Sports
Jaguars vs. Browns
One team looks to halt a losing streak while the other aims for its first winning streak of the season when the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Cleveland has lost three straight contests, including a (13-12) setback against the St. Louis Rams last Sunday, and five of its last six. Jacksonville is coming off its second victory in three games, a (17-3) triumph over the hapless Indianapolis Colts last Sunday. The Cleveland Browns have mustered only two covers in their last (17) games on the board. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jim Feist
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins
Dallas (5-4 SU/4-5 ATS) QB Tony Romo (16 TDs, 7 INTs) has a slew of talented weapons in WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones, No. 4 in the NFL with 300 yards passing per game. However, WR Miles Austin (hamstring) is out 2-4 weeks. The Cowboys come off a 44-7 rout of Buffalo Sunday with 433 yards. This defense got smoked by Philly three weeks ago, 34-7. They were outgained 495-267 and allowed a whopping 239 yards rushing. They bounced back with 443 yards on the Seahawks, but failed to cover in a 23-13 win. The defense allowed 381 yards, though just 2 of 10 on third down. The Cowboys are having trouble in close games, such as a 20-16 loss at New England allowing a late TD drive. They had 377 total yards but stumbled in the red zone. The Cowboys are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Washington (3-6 SU/ATS) coach Mike Shanahan has rotated veteran QB Rex Grossman (6 TDs, 11 INTs) and young QB John Beck (2 TDs, 4 INTs). They come off a 20-9 home loss at Miami as Grossman got the start and threw 2 picks and the offense had just 246 total yards. The Dolphins led 10-6 at halftime, then mounted scoring drives of 70 and 81 yards to seal the win. Washington’s injury-plagued offense netted only 61 yards rushing. The 49ers had a 19-11 win over the Washington Redskins two weeks ago as Beck led the offense to 303 total yards. Even though the Redskins will not challenge for the division, you can always bet they put forth their best effort when it comes to playing the Cowboys. And they would like nothing better than a big upset on Sunday. I like the points here as the Redskins and Cowboys always play each other tough.
Vegas Experts
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears
Something just doesn't "smell right" with this line. The Chargers have lost four straight (0-4 ATS) and come into Chicago to face a Bears squad that has won its last four (4-0 ATS). That makes this a classic case of "buy low, sell high" and we'll grab the points with the Lightning Bolts as the Bears are 3-16 ATS after scoring 25 or more points in back to back games.
Play on: San Diego
Steve Merril
Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: Seattle Seahawks +3
Seattle came through for us last week and we look for them to carry the momentum to St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are just 3-6 on the season, but they’ve quietly played some decent football. Their losses have come against quality teams like the 49ers, Steelers, Falcons, Bengals, and Cowboys. Their lone loss to a bad team was their 6-3 slumber in Cleveland. Obviously the Rams are no juggernaut as they come into this game at just 2-7 on the year, and if Seattle’s pattern of beating the bad teams continues, the Seahawks should notch their fourth win of the season. The Seahawks have been pretty good defensively this season allowing 22 points per game on 5.4 yards per play. They rank 12th in the league against the run only allowing 107 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush. Their defense will be facing a bad St. Louis offense. The Rams are 30th in the league averaging a mere 13 points per game. They are 26th in passing yardage (196) and 15th in rushing yardage (115). St. Louis has scored more than 16 points just once all season, and since they are laying points for the first time this year, the Rams are just a bad favorite. St. Louis’ defense is just as bad as their offense. The Rams are allowing 25 points per game and almost 370 yards of total offense per game. They allow their opponents to gain 5.9 yards per play which is much worse than Seattle’s defense. The Rams are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 151 yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush. Since 2007, St. Louis is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against division opponents. Look for the Seahawks to control both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game en route to their first back-to-back wins of the season.
David Chan
Senators @ Canucks
PICK: Under 5.5
The 10-9-1 Ottawa Senators rumble into Vancouver to take on the 9-9-1 Canucks.
In net, Craig Anderson is scheduled to be playing opposite Cory Schneider.
Ottawa is looking for a fourth straight win here after completing the "Alberta Sweep" on Tuesday vs. Calgary and Thursday vs. the Oilers:
“I’ve been around for a long time and it is not too often we have won both games in Alberta,” said captain Daniel Alfredsson.
The Sens have struggled in Vancouver though, having dropped their last four in a row:
“We had a tough start to the season and we have come a long ways since,” Alfredsson said. “We know where we want to be and that’s what the season is for, to build and learn and get better. We are giving ourselves chances right now.”
The 'Nucks haven't played since a 5-1 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.
Vancouver can score, as evidenced by its league leading power play, but coach Alain Vigneault knows his team needs to improve across the board:
“Aside from the power play, which obviously we’re happy about, all the other parts of our game need to be better, the 5-on-5 to goaltending to whether it be penalty killing,” Vigneault said. “So we’ve got work to do.”
Anderson is 3-9-1 with a 3.34 GAA vs. Vancouver; Schneider has never faced the Sens.
I bet value where I see it, and I think this will be a tightly checked affair; look for this total to sneak below the posted number!
Bryan Power
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Cleveland Browns
Play on Cleveland at 1:00 ET. Can't imagine there will be many bettors eager to jump on this game, but I am recommending a small wager on the Browns. Or rather against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing their third consecutive road game, always a bad spot for NFL teams, and even better is the fact we can catch some value as the team is off a win in its previous game - 17-3 over the winless Colts. The Jags are the fourth team this NFL season to be given the dreaded "three consecutive road game scenario" and the previous three are 0-3 SU/ATS in Game #3. You had the Jets losing at New England, New Orleans falling outright at Tampa Bay and most recently Indianapolis getting blown out at Tennessee. Having yet to score more than 20 pts in any game this season, Jacksonville is the perfect opponent for the equally offensively challenged Browns, who will be looking for revenge for a 24-20 loss last season. This is the time of year when it starts getting cold in certain NFL markets and the Jaguars have never performed well in those conditions. 5* on Cleveland.
Sean Murphy
Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -1
We successfully faded the Vikings on Monday night in Green Bay, but we'll back them as they return home to host the Raiders on Sunday.
Oakland is coming off its first win of the Carson Palmer era, a 24-17 decision in San Diego last Thursday. I question whether the Raiders are capable of going on the road and winning in consecutive weeks. They're turnover and mistake-prone, and have to deal with an early start time. That's not to mention the fact they're still missing their best player in RB Darren McFadden.
The Vikings were throttled in Green Bay on Monday, but that shouldn't have come as a big surprise. The Packers defense was fired up after a poor showing in San Diego, and took it out on rookie Christian Ponder.
This is a much more favorable spot for Minnesota, particularly on the offensive side of the football. The Raiders haven't been able to stop the run this season, giving up 5.2 yards per rush. Now they face a tall task in slowing down Adrian Peterson. I won't be surprised if Peterson goes off this afternoon - three touchdowns sounds about right.
Note that the Vikings last three losses have come against the Bears and Packers (twice) - arguably the two hottest teams in the league. In their last two games against beatable opponents, they've come up with wins over the Cardinals and Panthers.
As bad as things have gone at times in Minnesota this season, the Vikes are still an even 4-4-1 ATS. That includes a 2-1-1 ATS mark at home. They're getting little respect from the oddsmakers in this spot, but I'm expecting one of their better efforts of the season. It's a typical letdown spot for the Raiders, who win or lose on Sunday, remain in the thick of the AFC West race. Take Minnesota
Nick Parsons
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -7
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
The Bengals are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS on the road; last week they lost 24-17 at home to Pittsburgh in an important divisional battle, unable to cover with the 3 1/2-point spread they were afforded.
A trip to M&T Bank Stadium is NOT what the doctor ordered, as Cincinnati has always struggled there, just 6-14 ATS its last 20.
On the other side of the field: Baltimore is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS; last week it was shocked 22-17 in Seattle as a 7-point favorite.
The Ravens are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS their last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7-points.
Bottom line: Both teams had setbacks last week, but the Ravens was much more predictable; they had just come off the big Sunday Night win over the Steelers, and then had to turn around and hit the West Coast for the lowly Seahawks; a classic "trap" game.
The Bengals' loss however hurts more.
I'm taking the home side to come back in a big way in front of the home town crowd!
Dave Price
1 Unit St. Louis Rams -3
Last week, Seattle upset a Baltimore team at home that was in a letdown spot following a big win over division rival Pittsburgh. I don't expect to see the same Seattle team on the road here. First off, the Seahawks fit into a time-tested system that asks us to play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog, provided it is no longer the first month of the season. Doing so has produced an incredible 174-114 (60.4%) ATS record since 1983. Also, Seattle is just 5-16 ATS on the road since the beginning of the 2009 season, including 0-8 ATS during this span if checking in off a home win. Take the Rams.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Arizona Cardinals +10.5
Knowing the public would be all over a 49ers team that is 8-0-1 ATS this season, odds makers have inflated this line. They're looking to score a big payday when the Cardinals keep this one within the number. Arizona has shown some life with back-to-back SU victories and three consecutive ATS wins. Its 3-point loss at Baltimore on Oct. 30, and last week's 21-17 win at Philadelphia are noteworthy because both the Ravens and Eagles have every bit as much talent as the 49ers. These games show up Arizona is capable of playing with the Niners on the road today. Since Whisenhunt took over as head coach, the Cards have been a force to be reckoned with. In fact, they are 9-2 ATS under his watch when matched up against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better and 12-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 6 or more points per game. San Fran is the best in the business against the run, but it ranks just 26th in the league against the pass with 260.3 yards allowed per game. Kevin Kolb is likely out again this week, but John Skelton showed what he can do against a very good Eagles secondary last Sunday. He completed 21 of 40 passes for 315 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in that contest. Larry Fitzgerald, who ranks fourth in the NFC with 792 receiving yards, could be in for a big game. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in this series, and the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. We'll take the points.
Jack Jones
Washington Redskins +8
The Washington Redskins always play the Dallas Cowboys tough. It doesn't matter if they have the worst record in their division or not, they always show up when they see that star on players' helmets on the opposing sidelines.
The Redskins certainly want revenge from a 16-18 loss at Dallas in their first meeting. That was just one of many close losses in this series of late for the Redskins. While the Cowboys have won five of the last six meetings, five of those games were decided by 6 or less points. Washington has only lost to Dallas by more than 4 points once in their last 10 meetings.
What gives the Redskins a chance to pull off the upset Sunday is a defense that is only giving up 19.8 points/game overall, including 18.5 points/game at home. Washington ranks 12th in the league in total defense (337.1 yards/game), including 9th against the pass (216.7 yards/game). They didn't allow the Cowboys to score a touchdown in their first meeting, holding them to six field goals.
This play falls into a system that is 75-34 (68.8%) since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Also, plays against of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Washington is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season. Dallas is 17-33 ATS in their last 50 road games when playing against a team with a losing record. The Cowboys are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite, including 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. The Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Dallas, and the underdog is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet Washington Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit oBuccaneers/Packers UNDER 49
Our free play goes on the under in the Bucs/Packers game as plays under on road teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) that allowed 30 points or more last game and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a a game in which 50 total points or more were scored are 115-65 since 1983. Over these 180 games, we have seen just 41.2 total points scored on average. It's also worth noting that this system is off to a 4-1 start this season. The Under is 7-1 in the Packers' last 8 games following a SU win of more than 14 points and 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in this series, including 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Green Bay. Bet the Under.
Nelly
Jacksonville + over Cleveland
The Browns fell to 3-6 in a devastating loss last week with a botched game winning field goal. Cleveland has lost three in a row after a 3-3 start and the wins have all come against bottom tier teams. Jacksonville has won two of the last three with a 3-0-1 ATS run but the Jaguars are gaining just 243 yards per game, though Cleveland has only been marginally better. Cleveland’s run defense is one of the worst in the league despite good overall numbers and Jacksonville has battled through one of the toughest schedules in the league while Cleveland so far has faced one of the weakest. Cleveland has really struggled as home favorites and the Browns are in tough spot given the way the game finished last week.