Doug Upstone
Tampa Bay / Green Bay OVER
The Green Bay Packers are on a serious roll with QB Aaron Rodgers playing at a level thru nine games possibly never seen before. He has the offense humming which leads to this Totals system for Sunday. Play Over on any team like the Packers, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in November. (27-6 L5Y)
Bob Balfe
Bears -3.5 over Chargers
The last two plays on the card today seem so good to be true that you almost feel like you are getting suckered. I just cannot find any reason for the Bears not to blow this team out. The Chargers have lost their identity. Phillip Rivers looks timid this year and now they have just been hit hard with offensive line injuries. San Diego will also be without one of their best receivers and I just do not see them putting up points on this defense in this cold weather. Matt Forte is really starting to take off and the Bears are peaking on both sides of the ball. Again, this seems like a gift win, but its too good to pass up this play. Take Chicago.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM +110 over Detroit
This is a great situational spot for the Ducks after being off since Thursday while Detroit will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. The Red Wings won yesterday in Los Angeles and it was a well-deserved win but they’re still just 3-5 away from the Joe. Additionally, it’ll be Ty Conklin and his .880 save percentage between the pipes. The Ducks are in a serious funk with three losses in a row and nine losses in 10 games. They’re definitely a team in trouble but the reports are that they’ve had some spirited practices since Thursday and they’ll play their hearts out here. This has always been a home-team dominated series and the small and enticing line on the Red Wings at –114 is a huge red flag for betting the visitor. Situation and line strongly suggests Ducks. Play: Anaheim +114 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Rivers
Comp play winner for Sunday will be to look for another under in a Jacksonville game.
The Jags have been getting things done this season with their defense, as they are allowing only 18-points per game this season. That's the good news. The bad news is they have no offense to go with that defense, as they have been held to 17-points or less in 8 of their 9 games this year.
Thus, it is not surprising that Jacksonville has gone under the posted total in 8 of their 9 games this year.
Now along comes the offensively-challenged Cleveland Browns who have also been held to 17-points or less in 8 of their 9 games this season. The Brownies are on a 4-1 under run their last 5 games.
I just don't see much offense being generated in this game today, do you?
That being the case, going to look for the teams to play a game in which I think I would rather go out and watch paint dry on a picket fence.
Under, under, under in the Browns-Jaguars game today.
4♦ UNDER
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Buffalo Bills on the road to cover against the Miami Dolphins.
The Buffalo Bills have had their troubles in the past two games. They were blasted by the Jets and the Cowboys.
The Dolphins beat the Chiefs and the Redskins in the past two games.
Overall, the Bills have more weapons and should be poised for a bounce-back game.
The Bills had their troubles with offenses that exposed the rather poor Bills defense. Buffalo’s defense is ranked 29th overall.
The Dolphins do not have the offense to exploit the Bills’ weaknesses. The Bills may not be contenders, but they are good enough to look like ones against the weaker teams in the league. The Dolphins fit that category.
On offense, Buffalo relies on Fred Jackson, who is coming off his sixth 100 yard rushing game. In the Bills first seven games, they average 30.1 points, but have scored just 18 points in the last two.
If they return to their form from earlier this season, the Dolphins will not be able to keep pace. The Dolphins, during their winning stretch is giving up more than 300 total yards per game and were giving up more than 400 yards when they were losing. Look for the Bills to expose the Dolphins defense.
Take the points with the Bills.
3♦ BILLS
Derek Mancini
Siding with the Titans as the dog against the Falcons for today's Free Play, as both teams need this game badly and I just don't see that many points separating them. The resurgence of Chris Johnson is the key here, as the Titans offense is predicated on the run and we saw what they're truly capable of in their demolition of Carolina last week. Of course, I well aware that the Falcons run defense is FAR superior to that of the Panthers, but regardless Johnson will least keep Atlanta's defense honest. This is where Hasselback and the Williams/Washington WR combo come in against a very beatable Falcons secondary.
On the flip side, we know Atlanta loves to run Turner to set up the play action pass, but a key injury in Julio Jones will limit their ability to do that. Of course, Roddy White is a beast, but without Jones in the lineup, Tennessee can roll their coverages his way. Moreover, the return of Barret Ruud on the defensive side for Tennessee will be a huge factor in containing Gonzalez, the Falcons only other legitimate threat after White (given the Jones injury).
Finally, the Titans are an excellent 14-5 ATS in their L19 games as a dog of between 3' to 10 points. While Atlanta is just 10-21-1 ATS in their L32 home games against a team with a winning record. Given how important this game is for both teams, the reemergence of Johnson, and the Jones injury (and return of Ruud) this match up is shaping up to be a lot closer than most bettors are anticipating. Take Tennessee plus the points over Atlanta Sunday.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Scott Delaney
This classic rivalry I'm looking at for my complimentary winner looks too easy for the Pokes, and I'm just not that comfortable in laying the full touchdown with the Dallas Cowboys on the road, even if the Washington Redskins appear to be a mess right now. I know the Cowboys appear to be a different football team than we've seen recently, and I know the Redskins have been outscored 115-53 in five straight losses, but this is one of thos rivalries that you throw everything out and take the matchup for exactly what its worth.
Dallas has recently become dependent on the running talent of DeMarco Murray, and he's making it look easy. Today might actually be his toughest challenge with Washington strong safety LaRon Landry becoming the eighth man in the box for Murray to contend with once he gets past that front seven, something he hasn't been used to. Murray's strength is getting into open field territory, and that's why he's been able to bring the Cowboys with him downfield and help move the sticks accordingly. Today he meets his match.
Landry, the type of player that excels when going for the big hit and punishes running backs, is going to be a big physical for Murray, as his exxuberan hits will stun the rookie and put him on alert early on.
Once Murray is contained, and this turns into a one-dimensional offense, I don't trust Tony Romo. Yes, he's been shutting up his critics, but today he'll struggle. He's due for a let down game. After all, he can't keep it up after last week, when he posted a franchise-record 88.5 percent completion percentage and threw for 279 yards and two scores the week prior to that.
Washington steps its game up defensively to keep the 'Skins inside this number and cover as the home underdog.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is on the Detroit Lions minus the points at home against the Carolina Panthers.
Detroit can thank Tennessee for giving them a blue-print as to how to slow rookie Cam Newton down, as the Titans held the Panthers without a touchdown last week in their 30-3 romp at Carolina.
Carolina has now lost two in a row, and five of their last six games, and after starting the campaign at 4-0-1 against the spread, the Panthers are currently on a 1-3 spread slide, including spread setbacks in their last two games.
Detroit is in serious need of a "statement" win, as the Lions 5-0 start is now a thing of the past. The Lions are mired in a 1-3 straight up and against the spread descent, but they have covered five of their last seven home games when listed as the favorite.
I expect Detroit to use this game as a springboard to their upcoming Thnaksgiving Day clash with the undefeated Green Bay Packers. First they must get by Carolina before dealing with the Pack, and get by they will.
Lions record a much-needed double-digit win and cover at Ford Field this Sunday afternoon.
2♦ DETROIT
Chris Jordan
The total in the Jacksonville/Cleveland game is 34 points, and in my estimation, it's going to be lucky to even get to that number, as I strongly believe we're going to see a low-scoring affair between these two defensive teams.
Though both of these NFL teams are 3-6, they are two of the most physical teams in the league, whether it's pounding the rock up the middle on offense with punishing rushing games, or using a staunch defensive game to stifle their opponents, there's nothing more to these two then brute strength.
Jacksonville pretty much relies on Maurice Jones-Drew, who figures to carry early and often against a Browns defense that's 30th in the league against the run. Cleveland's defense ranks in the top 10 overall, so with an already stellar pass defense, it can concentrate on shutting down Jones-Drew while keeping the Jaguars off the scoreboard.
Cleveland isn't the most attractive team on offense, so Jacksonville's defense won't have too much to do today. Quarterback Colt McCoy had a season-best 97.5 passer rating last week, but this week won't be as easy, mark my words, as the Jaguars have a ferocious front seven that will keep the heat on McCoy throughout the game.
Look for the punters to get plenty of work in this one, as a defensive struggle prevails and the under cashes in.
3♦ Jaguars/Browns UNDER
Harry Bondi
San Diego / Chicago Under
San Diego has long been known as a team with a high-flying offense, but some serious injuries on the offensive line and some erratic play by QB Phillip Rivers has grounded the Chargers, who have also struggled with the loss of offensive coordinator Ron Rivera, who bolted for Carolina. In fact, the Bolts have topped the 21-point plateau just once in the last month. Meanwhile, the Bears are playing well and they're having success when they can run the ball on offense and lean on the defense. Chargers have gone under in seven of their last eight road games. We'll ride that trend again here. Go under.
John Ryan
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
5* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Washington Redskins set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more seven points. Moreover, it projects high probabilities exceeding 85% that Dallas will score between 22 to 28 points and will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 net passing yards per attempt. In past gam,Esc where Washington?s defense allowed these measures, they have gone 0-1 ATS, 1-3 ATS spanning the past three seasons, and 17-46 ATS since 1992; They are just 0-1 ATS this week, 6-4 ATS the past three seasons, and a miserable 19-51 ATS since 1992. Dallas has produced a 3-1 ATS mark this season, 15-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 67-37 ATS since 1992 when they have gained six or more total yards per play. Washington does have the 12th ranked defense in the NFL despite how miserable the team has played this season. Dallas MUST maintain a balanced attack using a good mixture of run and pass plays on first downs. Dallas has a physical ground attack that is averaging 125.4 yards per game and is led by rookie running back DeMarco Murray, who is averaging 8.0 yards per carry. Dallas will also get back running back Felix Jones back for today?s game based on published reports and this adds an added feature for ball control pass plays that Washington will have to defend. The Washington offense is miserable averaging just 15.1 PPG and Dallas must guard against giving up the big play. That was the dominant reason they fell behind in their last loss in Philadelphia and you can bet that Dallas will have safety help over the top even on blitz plays. In fact, Dallas will use extra defenders in zone and underneath coverages instead of choosing to focus on pressure. I feel very confident that the Dallas defensive front can stop Washington?s running game and shot ball control pass plays without using pressure. Take Dallas.
Hollywood Sports
Buccaneers at Packers
Prediction: Over
Tampa Bay (4-5) looks to rebound from their 37-9 loss to Houston last week -- and they have played 15 of their last 21 games after a loss at home by at least two touchdowns. That is a good start towards the Over considering that Green Bay (9-0) is averaging 40 PPG at home while having scored more than 42 points this season on four occasions this season. The Packers come off a 45-7 win over Minnesota last Monday -- and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 8 of their last 10 games in Lambeau Field Over the Total. That is not a good sign for a Bucs defense that has allowed 31.7 PPG when on the road this season. Take the Over.
Sam Martin
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Bills come in on a two-game losing streak while Miami has won two in a row, but we look for those trends to end here as the Bills passing offense matches up perfectly against this Dolphins team. Miami has been playing the last two weeks in desperation mode after a horrible start to the season, but now find themselves in a letdown after the back-to-back victories. Bills now play with desperation and face an opponent they know they can beat. Buffalo isn't as good as their hot start might have indicated, but also not as bad as their last two losses would suggest either. 5* Play on Buffalo.
Black Widow
1* Green Bay Packers -14
The Green Bay Packers have been absolutely destroying teams at home. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand little chance of keeping this game close Sunday. The Bucs are reeling, losers of three straight including a 9-37 home loss to the Houston Texans last week. This is not a good team for them to have to face when they are struggling. Green Bay is clearly the best team in the NFL, outscoring opponents 35.6 to 20.7 on the season. The Packers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, outscoring foes 40.0 to 16.7 or an average of 23.3 points/game. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in the league in total defense at 401.2 yards/game, which doesn't bode well for them considering they will be up against the No. 4 unit in total offense as the Packers average 409.7 yards/game. Tampa is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this year, getting outscored 15.2 to 29.7 or an average of 14.5 points/game. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite, and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Green Bay and lay the points.
OC DOOLEY
Bucs / Packers Under 48.5
We are reaching the time of the year when weather becomes a factor in contests being played in far north locations such as this. Even though there is no precipitation scheduled to fall from the sky, the WIND CHILL is slated to be a brisk 25-degrees. The oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this particular total since Green Bay leads the NFL in average points scored per game (35.6) and their quarterback has a current passer rating (130.7) which is on pace to crush the all-time league record (121.1) which was set by Peyton Manning. But it should be noted that visiting Tampa Bay (156 combined points tallied) has scored 12 FEWER than Green Bay has put up in the “first half” of 2011 contests alone. The Buccaneers are one of just a pair of squads that have NOT been able to score an offensive touchdown all year in the opening quarter, so the odds of this contest exceeding the spot are slim especially with Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman dealing with a sprained thumb. It was back on Monday Night of this week when the Green Bay DEFENSE which had a horrible ranking (#30) made a statement allowing just 7 points and 266 total yards. Despite that stellar performance the Packers “slipped” above the total courtesy of a touchdown run by a RESERVE quarterback in the late stages of a 45-7 rout. The Packers defense has plenty of motivation to perform well once again this afternoon since the last time they faced the Buccaneers back in 2009 (as a 9’ point favorite) the team lost outright in a 38-28 debacle. Here is a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (40-15 since 1983 with a total between 42’-and-49 points) which plays teams like Tampa Bay who allowed 35+ points in the prior outing UNDER the total, against an opponent who is off consecutive very high scoring affairs where a combined 50+ points were put on the scoreboard. Long term Tampa Bay is 26-12 UNDER/ROAD of the offense was held to 3-or-less “first half” points in the prior game