Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 21,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Detroit Lions
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There’s a new sheriff in town and the initial reviews are good. The Cowboys’ stunning win over the Giants in New York under interim head coach Jason Garrett last week was a badly needed shot in the arm for this much maligned team. Today they will attempt to win for the first-time ever at new Cowboys Stadium where they are 0-4 SU and ATS this season, with every loss as a favorite. Dallas will need to overcome a post Giants’ letdown that continues to contaminate this team as they are an infectious 0-9 ATS at home after defeating the G-Men. On the flip side, the Lions will look to snap a 25-game road losing streak knowing they are 3-7 SU and 8-12 ATS on the non-division road against an opponent off a double-digit spread win, including 7-0 ATS if the foe is also off a straight up victory. Our powerful database reminds us that teams who snapped a 0-5 SU and ATS losing skid as as underdog are just 6-20 straight up in follow up games. Until the new gunslinger shows he can put back-to-back winning performances together, we’ll take whatever is being offered in this over-reaction. As it is, Manny Pacquiao owns more wins at Jerry’s World than do the Cowboys. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: New York Giants
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5* graded play on the Giants. This is by far the best Sunday Night Football game this season pitting the New York Giants (6-3, 3-1 away) against the Philadelphia Eagles (6-3, 2-2 home) with first place in the NFC East up for grabs. With six teams now tied with 6-3 records and Atlanta posting the conference?s best record at 7-2 the winner will take a big step to securing a playoff spot.
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As obvious as it may appear the Giants must find ways to stop Michael Vick if they are to win this game. However, there are no obvious defensive schemes that any defensive coordinator can implement that will work consistently through a 60 minute game. The one scheme we know does not work is what Washington chose to do. They took their best defender and had him as a ?spy? and Vick?s athleticism and decision making exploited that in a huge way breaking many MNF football and team records in the process. Vick scored six touchdowns with four through the air and two rushing the ball. He had 333 passing yards and 80 rushing yards for 413 yards of total offense.
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No quarterback has been hotter and playing the complete position of quarterback than Michael has been in the history of the NFL. However, how much better can the performance get or is it even sustainable? The man hasn?t even thrown an interception yet this season and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg stated? he hasn?t missed many reads at all.... in fact, (Monday night), man alive, I tell you it?e one of the very best games I?ve been involved with in terms of quarterback decision-making?. So, the unenviable task for Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell is first to eliminate the long ball threat and to then contain Vick and push the pocket to his right since he is left-handed.
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Vick is a left-handed quarterback and making him go right and have to throw across his body will minimize his ability to throw lasers into tight spots. In order to get the pocket moved, the defensive backs will have to do an excellent job at jamming the wide receivers at the line of scrimmage and throw off the timing of the designed routes. The Giants do have physical coverage personnel that can achieve this, but it is imperative that the defensive front does not break containment and allow Vick to scramble outside the pocket. This allows the receivers to get that extra second to gain separation from their defender and is why Vick has many times thrown to wide open teammates.
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Applying a full scale blitz scheme will not be successful against Vick. Although Vick has been sacked 15 times this season, he has clearly shown that he would rather pass first than run first. He has rushed the ball 44 times for 341 yards averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. Yet, on several occasions he has tucked the ball only to stay behind the line of scrimmage and complete passes. He has completed 62.7% of his passes thrown for 1350 yards and 11 touchdowns.
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On Monday Night the opening play of the game was a designed rollout to his left giving Jackson ample time to clear the coverage and Vick threw a perfect pass to complete a stunning 88 yard touchdown pass. Later in the game, with Vick dropping back and then being pushed to his right, he had 7.3 seconds from snap to throw to execute another touchdown pass to Avant in the back of the end zone. There are few defenders that can cover past four-seconds after the snap so containment and not sacks will be the goal for the Giants defense.
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The Tampa-2 defense will be the featured scheme used by the Giants. The goal of that scheme is to keep everything in front of them and eliminate the big play preferring to allow underneath routes. Vick can complete the short routes, but then the offense has to earn the scores with multiple play drives. So, with a so-called ?soft? Tampa-2, the Giants can still use their base defense that features three safeties. They will not engage a safety at the line of scrimmage to stop the run or for containment as that has failed every time this year by previous Eagle opponents.
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The fact is that the Giants have a very strong quarterback of their own in Eli Manning. The Giants offense can pound the ball between the tackles against a highly over rated Eagles defense. The Giants can execute long time consuming scoring drives that keep Vick off the field and wears down the Eagles defense. Vick?s play and the scoring explosions have taken opponents right out of their game plan and forced them to try and pass their way back into the football game. In these situations, the Eagles have faced the easiest to defend situations.
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Here is a system that has produced a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 2000 and supports a play on the Giants. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt last game and now facing an opponent after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt in their last game. 50% of these games played covered the spread by more than seven points.

Vernon CroyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3
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Take Minnesota ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Vikings are the better overall team here despite coming into this match-up with a losing record. The Packers are banged up on both sides of the ball and they will not be able to stop perhaps the best running back in the league. I look for Adrian Peterson to carry the ball very successfully which will open up the big play down the field for Brett Favre to make. Both of the Vikings wide-outs Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice are expected to play and of course Brett Favre will be under center despite being banged up. This is the biggest game of the Vikings season because a loss against the Packers would definitely end any chance of making the playoffs. The Packers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points and the Underdog happens to be 17-6 ATS in the last 23 games played between these two teams. the Vikings come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing a team that has a winning record on the road and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings basically lost both of their last two games because of turnovers and I look for them to focus on ball safety at home Sunday.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Play: Indianapolis Colts +4
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We won with the Colts in Week Nine over the Eagles as they were getting points and stayed within the number. Again, it is hard to label the Colts as a sleeper this week, but any team can be classified as that if they are getting points and it is close to impossible to pass up on Indianapolis when it is an underdog. This is the second instance of it this season and just the third time since the start of last season, not including the final game when starters were rested at Buffalo. We won playing against New England two weeks ago and won with them last week over Pittsburgh which was a very inspired effort. The Patriots have been near impossible to beat following a loss but now they are coming off a win, a big one at that, and are laying more than a field goal to a team that is equal if not better. This series has been one of the best in football as the last five meetings have been decided by one possession and by an average of 3.8 ppg with the Colts winning four of those outright. The Patriots have been outgained in six of their nine games this season so the fact that they are 7-2 is definitely surprising to an extent. On top of it, they have no running game and no defense, which are the two top priorities in this league to be successful. New England is getting outgained by an average of 52.1 ypg and it is one of only six teams in the NFL with a winning record that is getting outyarded and easily the most of any team with more than five wins. Heading into that game against Philadelphia, Manning was second in quarterback rating behind Vince Young but he has since dropped to 10th but it is nothing to be concerned about. I think it actually helps. His last two games have produced ratings of 67 and 69.8 and the last time he has put together consecutive ratings under 70 was back in 2007. He bounced back with a 113 rating the next game and I expect similar here. The Patriots are 29th in total defense and are 27th in opposing quarterback rating allowed. What Manning has done is more impressive as he is 13-3 ATS as an underdog not including games he was rested or hurt. The Colts won at Arizona 31-10 last season as three-point dog and covered against the Eagles this season as mentioned. Overall, Indianapolis is 14-2-1 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of a field goal or less and that goes back to Manning. He is a true winner and the value is squarely on his side this game or anytime he is getting points. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games coming off a win by six points or less while going 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. New England is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Speaking of rushing, play against home teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 30 ypg in rushing going up against teams that are being outrushed by 40 or more ypg. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* Indianapolis Colts

WunderdogFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
Play: Houston Texans +7
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Early on, the New York Jets looked to be a team headed for a potential Super Bowl appearance. Their defense early was as good as ever and Mark Sanchez looked like he was maturing into a top flight NFL QB. Through the first five games, Sanchez had eight TD passes and no interceptions. That was a marked improvement from his 2009-10 season. How things have changed. Sanchez has thrown just four TD passes in his last four games, while serving up six INT's with at least one pick thrown in every game. The Jets defense has allowed 20+ points in four of their last five games and it took two miracle finishes to win in OT the last two games vs. losing teams (Detroit and Cleveland). Prior to that, only a late pass interference call kept the Jets from losing to another losing team (Denver). So while the Jets still look very impressive at 7-2, they aren't quite as strong as they appear on the surface. Houston is again shaping up as a dissapointment. But the one thing this team does well (throw the ball), matches up very nicely with New York's achilles heel. The Jets are 5th overall on defense, but 15th against the pass. And, Houston's biggest weakness (defense) is not one that the Jets have been able to exploit. New York is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 375+ yards per game). The Texans have come up big as a road dog having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in that role. They have also gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when coming off a road loss and 28-14 ATS after back-to-back losses. The Jets are just 3-7 ATS at home as a favorite of 3.5-10 in their last 10 games posted in this range. I like Houston in this one.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Raiders @ Steelers
PICK: Under 41.5
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I went 1-1 with my "paid" plays last Sunday; I hit my big 10* play on the "under" in the Bears/Vikes, but then lost my other selection on the "under" in the Sunday nighter between Pittsburgh and New England; the score was 10-3 at half time (the total was 45), and the Pats piled on 13 more in the third quarter.
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I was, of course, still loving this play heading into the fourth frame, until these teams then combined to score another 39, for a final score of 39-26 for New England.
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This has been a memorable season to say the least in terms of SU victories; each week the "experts" get together on various TV and radio shows across the country to figure out which team has finally separated itself from the rest of the pack, in this, the year of so-called "parity"; each time we "think" we have it all figured out, and that we know which team/s will continue to excel and dominate the rest of the way and firmly claim their spot in the post-season, these "chosen" clubs are then promptly upset…and in dramatic fashion! (the New York Giants fall into that spot this week, but the Patriots' collapse to the Browns the week before, and even the Steelers last Sunday night, are just a few of the many examples of this pattern so far this season).
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Watching the Patriots and Steelers, who both pride themselves on their defense, score almost 40 points in just 15 minutes, after each played very well on the defensive side of the ball for the first three quarters of the game, and at Heinz Field on a National stage no less, certainly has to be considered "odd", to say the least.
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Those are just a couple of interesting observations I thought I'd share, but I digress; after coming up short with the "under" in the Texans/Jaguars last week (another "weird" game; these teams combined for 20-points in the first half, and with the total in the game at 50, we looked good going into the second, until of course they combined to score 34 to end it), we're now on a long-term 5-2 (71.5%) "FREE PREMIUM NFL PLAY" run.
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We'll look to get back on track this week with another blockbuster winner; Oakland travels to Pittsburgh to take on the "regrouping" Steelers, and for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
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So far the Raiders have only seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of their first 9; in their final game before last week's "bye" they beat the Chiefs 23-20 in OT; the total sailing above the number of 41.
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It's interesting to note that Oakland has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 5 of its last 6 over the last 2-seasons off a win against a division rival and, most importantly, in both games its played after its "bye week".
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On the other side of the field are the Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in 5 of 9 to start the year (in 2 of 4 at Heinz Field).
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Significant to note that the Steelers have seen the total go "under" the number in 4 of their last 6 over the last 2-seasons in home games where the total is between 38 1/2 and 42-points.
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Bottom line: To say this, and every game from here on out, for the lowly Raiders is important, would be a bit of an understatement; wins have been few and far between over the last half-decade or so for this team.
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But now this club finds itself tied atop the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off a beatdown 49-29 loss to the Broncos, and who will be looking to get back on track this week with a big effort at home against struggling Arizona.
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That means that this game is crucial for the Raiders post-season chances; the "bye week" will have helped heal up any injuries; I expect Oakland to play with a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball in what is obviously a very tough atmosphere to perform in.
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And it goes without saying that the leagues "best" defense will be looking to rebound and send a message that last week's sub-par effort was indeed an oddity.
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I believe you'll agree with me that when taking all of the above situational and motivational factors into account, along with the strong O/U stats and trends that these teams exhibit in this spot, that this total is a little high; consider a second look at the UNDER in this situation gentlemen.

TEDDY COVERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3
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There aren’t many games where we can expect an ‘A’ level of effort from the 3-6 Minnesota Vikings over the final two months of the season. This, however, is one of those games, giving us tremendous value supporting the Vikes as home underdogs on Sunday.
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This is a fierce rivalry. Minnesota beat Green Bay twice last year; the Packers won by four in the first meeting this year, in large part thanks to an interception return touchdown from Desmond Bishop. It’s surely worth noting that the Vikings outrushed the Packers 196-84 in that ballgame, winning the yardage battle and the time of possession battle while gaining more first downs than Green Bay. It’s certainly not like the Packers blew the Vikings off the field in that ballgame, and there’s no reason to expect them to dominate this game either.
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The Vikings are 0-5 SU and ATS on the road, but they’ve won three out of four at home in the Metrodome. Their lone loss on this field, against Miami, came when the Vikings were stuffed at the goal line in the closing seconds. Dating back to last year, the Vikings are 12-1 SU at home in their last 13 tries. Minnesota also gets big play receiving threat Sidney Rice back in the lineup this week, giving Brett Favre one more weapon to utilize downfield against an opponent that he has a particular chip on his shoulder to beat.
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Green Bay is in a classic bad spot for any road favorite – ‘fat and happy’ off three consecutive wins followed by their bye week. We saw Green Bay go into New York and beat the Jets in a very similar spot a few weeks back when the Jets were the ‘fat and happy’ squad coming off the bye. Even after the bye, Mike McCarthy’s squad is still extremely banged up with eleven players on IR, and another half dozen key contributors still nowhere near 100%. That makes Green Bay a very poor choice as road chalk on Sunday. 2* Take Minnesota.

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3* on Washington Redskins +7
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Reasons the Redskins cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This is a 48-16 ATS System hitting 75% since 1983.
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2.) Whatever the Redskins have in them Sunday, the Tennessee Titans will get. When teams come off huge blowout losses like the one that Washington suffered against the Eagles last Monday, they always tend to come back with a great effort the following week. Tennessee is no juggernaut, losing to Miami 17-29 last week. The Titans are getting way too much respect here as the Redskins come to play in a big way Sunday. Bet Washington on the road.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Lions vs. Cowboy
Play: Over 46½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions love to throw the football regardless of who is behind center. They are a high risk, high reward offense that has kept the team alive in many cases despite a talent disadvantage. In reviewing the Detroit schedule we see a list of teams that are much better defensively than the team they will be playing today. Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, St Louis, the NY Giants, the New York Jets and as of late the much improved Buffalo Bills. Detroit games are averaging 46.0 ppg despite playing some of the best defenses in the NFL.
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Last week we took the Cowboys game over the total because the offensive coordinator Garrett had been promoted to head coach. What did they do? They promptly put up 33 points against what many consider one of the best defenses in the NFL. This week the Cowboys are back at home where the point totals have been through the roof. In the four home games for the Cowboys 47, 61, 76 and 52 points have been scored. Two of those games came against Chicago and Jacksonville, two teams with much better stop units than scoring units.
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The new head coach will once again want to open up the offensive play book and show the nation that the earlier Cowboy struggles had nothing to do with his offensive system.

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Baltimore Ravens -10
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Carolina (1-8) might own the worst offense in the NFL this season, averaging just 11.6 points per game and are just 1-4 SU & ATS at home while scoring only 46 points in those five home games. They'll have a difficult time turning their offense around this Sunday as they host a Baltimore (6-3) squad led by a stingy defense that's held opponents to only 18.3 points per game. The Ravens need a victory on Sunday to keep pace in the NFC North division race with Pittsburgh, after losing at Atlanta, 26-21, last weekend. That was Baltimore's third loss of the season, but they have not lost back-to-back games in 2010 and they returned from those first two losses with solid winning efforts, beating Cleveland 24-17 and Buffalo, 37-34. Lay the lumber with road favored Baltimore, who's defense will shutdown the over-matched Panthers, as we find the Ravens at 9-2 ATS against teams with losing records behind Head Coach Harbaugh.

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Buffalo +5½ over CINCINNATI
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One win means nothing in terms of where the Bills will end up this season but one win does wonders to team morale and the Bills have been highly spirited for quite some time now. Outside of week’s 2 & 3, Buffalo has been in every single game right down to the wire and they finally got that illusive first win last week. This is a team that seldom gets smoked, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very solid and it’s not like they’re playing the cream of the crop. The Bengals are not in much better shape than the Bills. In fact, Cinci has just two wins all year and unlike the Bills, they couldn’t care less. This team is as dysfunctional as any and when a team lines itself with questionable characters, they really have no shot and that’s been proven over and over and over again. The Bengals really care when they’re featured on prime time TV because they get an opportunity to be in the spotlight and they’ll get its chance on Thanksgiving Thursday. The Bengals travel to New York and play the Jets this Thursday and that’s the game they’re going to be a lot more concerned about. This game will have the lowest viewership of the week while Thursday’s game will be seen right across the globe. The Bengals have managed just one cover as a favorite in its past 11 attempts and have exceeded 21 points only twice this season, both times when trailing considerably. Bills outright. Play: Buffalo +5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
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Cleveland +1.12 over JACKSONVILLE
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Not often will you see garbage teams string together three wins in a row and that’s precisely the situation with the Jags. Here’s a team that has back-to-back wins over Dallas and Houston and it’s just the second time this year they’ve strung together two wins. The last time it happened it occurred in week’s 4 and 5 when they beat Indy and Buffalo and subsequently lost the following week 30-3. Furthermore, the Jags are coming off a huge celebratory win over the Texans in which they won on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. For the Jags it's either hit or miss. When they’re not on its game they get thumped and in fact, all of their losses have been by 20 points or more. They have losses of 38-13, 28-3, 30-3 and 42-20. That’s the sign of a team that goes extremely soft when they fall behind and you can be damn sure that Mangini and the Brownies will be made aware of this. Cleveland is coming off another tough loss to the Jets. They’re now 3-6 on the season but they’re not a 3-6 team. This is the third week in a row we’re playing the Brownies because they remain the most undervalued squad in the NFL. They’ve played the likes of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Cinci, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England and the Jets. Only one of those teams, the Bengals, is under .500 while the rest could all be playoff bound. Not only has Cleveland beaten the Saints and Pats, they’ve been in every single game with a chance to win it. Colt McCoy is the real deal, the Cleveland defense is rock solid and they have a whole slew of top caliber players. The Brownies take a big step down in class for this one and they may run and hide on the Jags. Play: Cleveland +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
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N.Y. Giants +3 +1.13 over PHILADELPHIA
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Michael Vick is the greatest QB EVER! This is another case of the media and fans blowing something way out of proportion because of one football game against the most dysfunctional team in the NFL on a Monday Night. Yeah, Vick was great but this isn’t the Redskins he’s facing. The Eagles, after one win and one outstanding performance has shot to the top of the NFL rankings and that is the absolute worst time to wager on a club. The Giants go from a 14-point favorite to a 3-point dog and that’s a 17-point swing in one week. The G-Men might just be the best team in football and they’re going to come in here with as much focus as they’ve had all year and then some. They watched that Monday night game like everyone else and they’re biting at the bit to get on the same field with Vick. Fact is, Vick has played just six of nine games. Vick’s big games have been against the Jags, Lions and Redskins. Against the Colts, Vick went 17-29 with a TD. Vick has thrown less than half the amount of passes than Manning, Rivers or Brady. He’s thrown one less pass than his backup, Kevin Kolb. He ranks 19th in TD passes. Vick is exciting but he runs all over the place and he’s a hit away from being helped off the field. He has to run all over the place because the Eagles offensive line is weak, very weak in fact and the Giants will exploit that. In this day and age of bling, texting, technology and social media, people remember the last thing that happened and nothing more. Vick rocked the football world and he’s been told all week that he’s the greatest story of all time. He and the Eagles will be given a reality check this week courtesy of the juggernaut Giants. Play: N.Y. Giants +3 +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
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NEW ORLEANS –11 over Seattle
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Laying big lumber usually doesn’t turn out well but that won’t be the case here. The Seachickens will travel for the second consecutive week and third time in four weeks after beating the putrid Cardinals last week and putting up 38 points in the process. Big deal. Let’s not forget that 41-7 loss the previous week against the Giants and a 33-3 loss at Oakland the week before that. The Seahawks other two road losses were at Denver by a score of 31-14 and at St. Louis by a score of 20-3. This is one of the three worst teams in the NFL with a mountain of first year players, a sickening defense and a banged up QB. Matt Hasselbeck has two fractures in his wrist but will suit up and attempt to play. The Saints are coming off a bye and can’t afford to take another week off. New Orleans sits in second place in the division, one game behind the Falcons. They play the next two weeks on the road so they won’t be taking the Seachickens lightly. The Saints are coming off a 34-3 win over the Panthers and that was in Carolina. Seattle is no better than Carolina and again, the Seahawks will play its second consecutive road game and third in four weeks. Drew Brees will rip this defense to shreds and this is an easy 20-point victory and probably more. If the San Diego Chargers are 10-point favorites over Denver, how can the Saints be basically the same price? It’s a big number but a very cheap lay. Saints roll. Play: New Orleans –11 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLE
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Giants (6-3) at Eagles (6-3)
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Settle down, people. We understand how the entire football population is going gaga over Michael Vick’s recent play and the circumstances surrounding it. However, we’re going to give it a bit more time before joining in. There is no denying Vick’s multi-faceted talents but three of his four wins have come against the Lions, Jaguars and Redskins while losing to the Packers. Now they get an angry Giants squad fresh of their collapse to the Cowboys. The G-men and their top-ranked defence will not be the easy pickings that Vick has taken advantage of recently. Eagles have just one cover at home this season. TAKING: GIANTS +3 Pinnacle
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Bills (1-8) at Bengals (2-7)
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Despite having waited for their first victory until last week, the Bills put forth an effort every Sunday. The same can’t be said of the Bengals. Cincinnati appears to have thrown in the towel and that can’t be an ideal situation to be giving away points. Prior to capturing that win last week, Buffalo had lost three straight by three points each, two of them in overtime and all to teams with winning records. This 2-7 Cincinnati squad has managed just one cover as a favourite in its past 11 attempts. The Bungles have exceeded 21 points only twice this season, both times when trailing considerably. TAKING: BILLS +5½ Pinnacle
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Browns (3-6) at Jaguars (5-4)
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Talk about a tune up. The Browns have had quite the schedule leading up to this one. Cleveland’s past five battles have been against a group that ranks in the league’s top eight or nine teams. Losses to Atlanta and Pittsburgh were followed by convincing wins over the Saints and Patriots. Last week’s game saw the Brownies lose a heartbreaker, deep into overtime, against the Jets. The Jaguars don’t rate with the aforementioned bunch and with their weak secondary and limited pass rush, Colt McCoy and the Browns should be able to dictate play throughout the afternoon. TAKING: BROWNS +1½ Pinnacle
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Raiders (5-4) at Steelers (6-3)
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The Raiders had a week off and we actually missed them. They will be unwelcomed back by a Pittsburgh team that has been decimated by injury recently and while failing to cover in five of its past six games. Oakland was a much weaker team last season and still managed a 27-24 win on this very field. TAKING: RAIDERS +7
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Texans (4-5) at Jets (7-2)
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Yes, the Texans have scoring ability. The trouble is that they can’t stop anyone. Houston has given up at least 24 points to all of its opponents thus far and is averaging 31 points against in its previous five games. The Jets have not been home in awhile and will be anxious to reward its faithful with a solid showing. TAKING: JETS –7
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Ravens (6-3) at Panthers (1-8)
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Stop this ride, we want to get off. After endorsing the Panthers a time or two too often lately, it would take something miraculous to happen again anytime soon. Truth be told, this team does not have NFL caliber players right now and putting up enough points to compete is near impossible. Ravens should romp. TAKING: RAVENS –10
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Redskins (4-5) at Titans (5-4)
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The Titans will be home for the first time this month and for only the second time since October 3rd. That does not bode well for a struggling Washington squad that will arrive here on a short week after being pounded at home. Randy Moss may be past his ‘best before’ date but this secondary won’t attest to that. TAKING: TITANS –7
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Lions (2-7) at Cowboys (2-7)
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The bad news is that the Lions have lost 25 straight road games. The good news is that they don’t have to win here for a payoff. Even for the disappointing Cowboys, this could be a flat spot as Dallas just upset the Giants while the champion Saints will visit the ‘Boys for a Thanksgiving Day tussle. TAKING: LIONS +6½
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Packers (6-3) at Vikings (3-6)
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The Vikings are a joke. There is Brett Favre with his ailment of the week, his Jenn Sterger ordeal, the Randy Moss circus and the contempt between coach and players. Despite all of this, the players still have aspirations of playoff activity. We’ll give them this chance to have the last laugh against the mega-rival. TAKING: VIKINGS +3
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Falcons (7-2) at Rams (4-5)
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The Falcons have been solid this past month and it is no coincidence that they haven’t left Georgia during that time. Atlanta will have its hands full with a Rams team that has won four straight at home and has not given up more than 17 points in any of those victories. This one stays close throughout. TAKING: RAMS +3
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Cardinals (3-6) at Chiefs (5-4)
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After being completely humiliated by the Broncos last week, we expect the Chiefs to take the field with a vengeance this week. They couldn’t ask for a weaker foe to take out their frustrations on as the Cardinals can only score on opponents’ gaffs. Kansas City steamrolled the Jags in similar situation and can do same here. TAKING: CHIEFS –8
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Seahawks (5-4) at Saints (6-3)
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The Seahawks have won two of their past four games. Both victories were against the woeful Cardinals. Seattle’s two losses, in the middle of that quartet, were by a combined 74-10 to the Raiders and Giants respectively. The Saints are in a dogfight for their division, are rested and get Reggie Bush back. TAKING: SAINTS –12
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Buccaneers (6-3) at 49ers (3-6)
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Tampa giving up just too much acreage for us to be comfortable backing them in this price range. The Niners are playing much more confidently with Troy Smith quarterbacking and San Fran once again eyeing division, sitting just two games back of lead. TAKING: 49ERS –3
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Colts (6-3) at Patriots (7-2)
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Comfort food or what? With Manning vs. Brady, you know you’re going to get your cable bill’s worth here. The Colts have held the upper hand, winning four of past five since 2006, with the combined scores from the five contests sitting at 138-127 in favour of Indy. As usual, this one figures to stay close. TAKING: COLTS +3½
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Broncos (3-6) at Chargers (4-5)
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At first glance, this price appeared a bit steep but a closer look reveals that it may not be lofty enough. Both teams have dynamic aerial games but the Broncos lack on the defensive side of things. Denver’s defence is relinquishing 28 points per game with only the Texans and Cardinals allowing more. TAKING: CHARGERS –10

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Atlanta Falcons vs. St Louis Rams
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3
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Falcons get an extra two days of rest and STL had to travel to west coast last week. Plus the injuries for STL have really hurt them leaving them with no playmakers. Great story this year in STL but this ATL team is a true SuperBowl contender. Expect ATL to grind this out early with the running attack, but late they hit White with some deep passes sealing a big ATS win for us.

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STL +3 vs ATLFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Come on boys Jr O is stepping up to the plate on this November 21st Nfl Sunday and ((Play On)) a nice dangerous dog the St Louie Rams + 3 @ the Edward Jones Dome, we note these Rams have quietly won four straight after a dismal 14 game ugly skid at home!! The Rams D is a strong unit guys as this Ram's rush defense ranks #7 in the league with 97.8 yards a game allowed .. We all saw what happened when this soft Atlanta Falcons crew went into the Linc vs the Phila Eagles & got throttled by 2 touchowns. Our true power ratings have the Rams @ + 1 a nice 2 point overlay! The Rams are very capable to and will stop Falcons Rb Mike Turner as the Ravens held him to 37 yards. The Zone will move to the winners circle with a Rams squad ready to pounce!! The Atlanta Falcons are 9-12 on the road under M.Ryan & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf. On the flip side the Rams are on a 10-2 ATS run!! The Rams shock these Dirty Birds.