Sports Insights
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
The Minnesota Vikings are receiving just 25% of the bets (side bets as well as teasers and parlays) this week in their big match-up versus the Green Bay Packers. With bettors getting on Green Bay as if they already know the final score of the game -- the line has made a fairly dramatic move from the opening line of Minnesota +2.5 to Minnesota +3, with good associated odds. You can receive the 3 points AND currently receive +105 odds at some sportsbooks. This is a big move because it is "through" the key number of 3.
SportsInsights members and readers know that the team at SportsInsights likes to seek out "live dogs" -- especially fierce Divisional Rivalries like the Vikings and Green Bay in recent years. In addition, we see the following factors that might lead to value on the Vikings:
* Green Bay is riding a three-game winning streak. Let's "sell" the Packers at a recent high. They were just 3-3 before their current streak.
* The Vikings lost last week to the Bears by two touchdowns. Let's "buy" them after their bad loss.
* The Vikings are just 3-6, but their "net points" ("points for" minus "points against") is almost break-even. In addition, they have had a difficult schedule, losing to teams such as the Jets, New England, and New Orleans.
* "Live home underdog" in Divisional Match-up
Our readers know that we like to "bet against the Public" so we will select the Vikings to bounce back against the Packers. Grab the line value and shop around for the best line and odds at the key number of three.
Minnesota Vikings +3 +105
Jimmy Moore
Indianapolis @ New England
Play: Indianapolis +4
This is the marquee matchup of the day in the NFL and I have to side with Peyton and the Colts. There are a ton of trends to look at but I am going to look at the stats in this game. Indy has the better offense and the better defense, that is a powerful combination for a dog of more than a field goal to have. The last 3 games in this series have been decided by 4 points or less which makes the points the play in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Arizona Cardinals +9
KC fits a negative system today that plays against home favorites of -4 or more that allowed 40 or more on the road last week, while scoring 30 or less, vs an opponent that has won at least 12 of their last 32 games. This system hits in the high 70 percent range. Arizona has responded nicely off back to back losses covering 4 of the last 5 times. The Chiefs are just 1-6 ats as a favorite. Even worse is their 0-9 straight up record off a division loss. Look for Arizona to stay within the number here today.
DAVID CHAN
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3
Sure there are chemistry issues in Minnesota. The players have lost respect for Brad Childress. Can't really blame them for that since Childress is one of the worst head coaches in the NFL and a hypocrite.
Nonetheless, though, the Vikings will be up for this game. This is their season and they're playing their division arch-rivals. Brett Favre will have Minnesota super fired-up at home, where the Vikings are an entirely different team.
Going back to the beginning of last year, the Vikings are 12-1 in their noisy dome stadium. A victory could propel the Vikings back into the NFC North race since their next two games are against Washington and back at home versus Buffalo.
Adrian Peterson gives the Vikings the best running back by far on the field. Minnesota's receiving corps gets a boost with the return of Sidney Rice for the first time this season. Favre can use a deep weapon again with Randy Moss gone.
The Packers aren't nearly as dominant as they looked against a disjointed Cowboys squad two weeks ago on national television. They are without their best running back, tight end and have a cluster injury problem at linebacker and safety. The Vikings play a lot of Cover-2, which bothers Aaron Rodgers. Jared Allen and Minnesota's pass rushers are a lot better, too, at home playing on turf behind loud crowd noise. After a slow start, Allen has come on to record 4 1/2 sacks during the past two games.
There is tremendous line value getting points with the Vikings at home. Minnesota should have defeated Green Bay in the first meeting. The Vikings had more first downs and yardage, but were hurt by official's calls.
Please note that David is 8-1 on his last three same-sport 3-Packs and has a huge NFL 3-Pack going at a value price that is guaranteed to turn a profit.
Sean Higgs
NY Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: NY Giants +3
Basically, the Eagles shot their load on Monday night. Is this team the 2nd coming of the undefeated Dolphins? How are they going to be able to match that kind of output here vs another bitter NFC East foe. I do like this Eagles team, but Eli should be able to find some receivers vs this secondary. Giants bring a ton of pressure on the quarterback, and I can't see Vick having another game like Monday.
Sports Capping Pros
Texans +6.5
The New York Jets are just 2-2 at home this season and frankly not played well at home. Both of their losses at home was due to little or no offense because QB Mark Sanchez struggles in that stadium. I think that Schaub will get a bunch of yards on the banged up secondary for the Jets and Johnson will get behind the defense and Revis for a long TD that will be the difference. The Texans might lose this game on the road, but not more than a FG.
Lions +6.5
I know, I know, the Cowboys are coming off a big win under the new head coach and looking good. I don't buy it, not yet anyway. The Lions are a damn good football team and only 1 of their losses has been by 8 points or more! The Lions have some really good talent and can compete at a very high level in the NFL. The Lions will be in the same boat today and they will compete and lose by a FG at the end of the game.
Vikings +3
The Vikings are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and Brett Farve is going to compete harder in this game against his former club than any game for the whole year. Farve and the Vikings played the Packers real tough in Green Bay almost a month ago and now they are in must win. Add the fact that their star WR Sidney Rice is active for the first time and I think that the Vikings will win this game at home, but take the +3 because this one will be close the whole day!
Rams +3
The Atlanta Falcons are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Rams on the other hand are 4-1 SU at home this season and the Falcons are just 2-2 SU on the road this season. The Rams should be favored in this game but Vegas knows that everyone is so obsessed with the records opposed to the actual facts. The Rams win this game outright today at home.
Patriots -4
The Colts are just 2-3 on the road this season and have a lot of injuries on their offense that will affect Peyton Manning. Bill has always been prepared for Manning and knows him real well and should be ready for what he has to offer. The Patriots are 4-0 at home this season and haven't lost a regular season home game with Brady behind center since 2006! I think that the Patriots will dominate this game at home by 10+ points and frustrate Peyton!
Tom Freese
Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
St Louis is 4-5 straight up this year. The Rams are 4-9 ATS their last 13 games after allowing over 250 yards passing in their last game. St Louis is 2-7 ATS their last 9 games in week 11 and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs. Atlanta is 7-2 straight up this year. The Falcons are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games overall and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 road games. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 0.5 to 3.5
Steve Merril
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Play: Over 42.5
The 49ers were expected to win the NFC West division, but they have underachieved this season. The main problem was poor quarterback play by former starter Alex Smith, but the 49ers have now fixed this problem by inserting a new Smith into the mix as Troy Smith has led the team to a perfect 2-0 SU record in his first two starts this season. The former Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State has put up fantastic numbers during his two starts against the Broncos and Rams and Troy Smith should have continued success today against a weak Tampa Bay secondary. Smith has a 116.6 QB rating this season and is averaging an amazing 11.8 yards per pass this year. Overall, Smith has a solid 92.5 QB rating and 8.2 ypp average in during his brief NFL career with Baltimore and San Francisco. Smith also takes care of the ball with only one interception in 136 career pass attempts. San Francisco should have plenty off success on both the ground and through the air against a bad Tampa Bay defense that is permitting 22.9 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average just 18.8 ppg and 5.1 yppl). Tampa Bay has been equally poor versus the run and the pass, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 3.9 ypr and 6.0 ypp). While Tampa Bay is suspect on defense, they are a solid offensive team and average 5.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow just 5.4 yppl). The Bucs have a balanced attack that averages 4.4 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 4.0 ypr and 6.5 ypp), so Tampa Bay should have success against a mediocre 49ers’ defense that permits 22.0 points per game and 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 21.7 ppg and 5.4 yppl). Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman is also quietly having a solid season with a 90.1 QB rating which is a marked improvement over his 74.4 career rating.
Charlie Scott
Washington Redskins vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Washington Redskins +7
This line opened Tenn -4.5 and quickly went to -7. I feel -4.5 was the right line and the jump to -7 is due to public perception and what happened last weekend. Bettor's will NOT be successful betting the NFL using the what I last saw handicapping method. The Titans are a quality NFL team and always deserve a look as a dog, However laying a TD is a whole different ball game. The Titans like to play ugly, and while their defense is aggressive, teams have been able to move the ball on them this yr. The Skins aren't as bad as they looked Monday night and can compete having a good defense, veterans McNabb, Portis on offense and a crazy Irishman coach Shanahan. The Skins will play a competitive game. Grab the +7 and Play the Skins !
Jeff Benton
I’m sure this selection raises a few eyebrows – “How in the world can you justify playing Washington just six days after the ‘Skins got torched for 59 points by Michael Vick and the Eagles? Now they go on the road face a similar quarterback in Vince Young? Are you insane?” My answer: No, I’m not insane, but the 2010 NFL season has been. Seriously, have you been paying attention to the NFL? The only thing that makes sense is that nothing makes sense.
Think about it: The Browns beating the Patriots and Saints back-to-back, then nearly beating the Jets? The Buccaneers at 6-3? The Raiders at 5-4 and leading the AFC West? The Cowboys lose seven of their first eight games, then go to New York as a near two-touchdown underdog and beat the red-hot Giants?
It’s been a crazy year, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the craziness continue in this game with Washington at least making this a competitive contest. After all, despite suffering consecutive double-digit losses – including a 37-25 setback in Detroit prior to their bye week, a game that was a three-point game with less than two minutes to go – the Redskins have still played six games decided by six points or fewer (including four three-point contests).
As for the Titans, they’ve gotten drilled in their last two games (33-25 to the Chargers, 29-17 to the Dolphins). Granted, both were on the road, but it’s not like Tennessee has been unbeatable at home – it is 2-2 SU and ATS in Nashville, with losses to the Charlie Batch-led Steelers and the Broncos (who are 3-6 this season).
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 5-2-1 on the road, 4-1-1 as a road underdog, 3-1-1 against winning teams and 8-3-1 on grass. Meanwhile, the Titans have killed their backers when laying big points, going 1-5 ATS in their last six as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 17-40 ATS in their last 57 when laying that kind of price at home.
I’ll stop short of calling for the outright upset (though it sure wouldn’t surprise me), but at the very least the Redskins will get inside the number, even if it means a backdoor cover against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
5♦ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Joel Tyson
Oakland at PITTSBURGH
Now for your freebie, how about a good old-fashioned AFC shootout at Heinz Field this Sunday afternoon?
Oakland has had a week off to rest up and reload. The Raiders enter this game having racked up 115 points in their last 3 games, and they are averaging nearly 30 points per game over their last 7 contests.
Pittsburgh has played over the total in their last pair of games, and at home, the over has been the higher percentage play in recent years, as the Steelers are on a prolonged 51-28 over clip their last 79 home games.
Oakland has played overs in 3 of their 4 road games this season, and last year's meeting between the teams produced a 27-24 final in favor of the silver-and-black, easily going over the posted price of 37 points.
Take the over once again in the Raiders-Steelers contest.
3♦ OVER
Chuck O'Brien,
Oakland (+7') at PITTSBURGH
Last December, Oakland went to Heinz Field as a 14½-point underdog and scored a 27-24 outright upset – and believe me, the Raiders are much better this season than they were a year ago. Now they’re catching a touchdown even though they’ve won three in a row, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five and are coming off a bye.
Pittsburgh has dropped two of its last three games (both defeats being double-digit losses to the Saints and Patriots). Since the start of October, the Steelers are just 3-3 SU and 1-4-1 ATS, including 1-2 SU and ATS at home. And two of those three wins were hardly convincing (23-22 at Miami; 27-21 at Cincinnati).
The Steelers have serious injury issues on the offensive line, which were very much apparent in Sunday’s 39-26 loss to New England when Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times. Well, the Raiders are tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks, just one behind co-leaders St. Louis and Green Bay.
Not only has Oakland covered in five straight overall and four straight as an underdog, but it is also 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record, 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road (all as an underdog), 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games in Week 11. Conversely, the Steelers are in ATS slumps of 2-5-1 at home going back to last year (the loss to the Raiders included), 0-4 against winning teams (the Raiders are 5-4) and 1-9-2 in Week 11.
Finally, Oakland has covered in four of the last five meetings against the Steelers (all as a ‘dog), including outright upset victories in the last three.
4♦ OAKLAND
Stephen Nover
Oakland (+7) at PITTSBURGH
My first of two free plays is Oakland to cover against Pittsburgh.
Don't laugh. The Raiders were far worse last year and they upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 27-24.
The Steelers' passing attack is dangerous again with Ben Roethlisberger. But this is more than offset by their offensive and defensive lines regressing due to injuries. Pittsburgh is down two of its key offensive linemen with left tackle Max Starks joining Willie Colon on the sidelines for the season after suffering a neck injury.
Pittsburgh's defense isn't as fierce with underrated lineman Aaron Smith out. Star safety Troy Polamalu has a bad wheel, which has greatly impacted his season. He hasn't been playing at his normal high level.
Oakland is much improved. The Raiders' 5-4 record is legitimate. Since opening week, the Raiders haven't lost a game by more than eight points. They have covered five in a row winning four of the five. They very well could be 6-3 if not for three missed field goals by normally reliable Sebastian Janikowski during a one-point loss to Arizona in Week 3.
The Raiders can hang with Pittsburgh. Their defensive backs can cover the Steelers man-to-man, although they need to keep an eye on speedster Mike Wallace, and their defensive line has the potential to get the better of Pittsburgh's battered offensive line that has now become mediocre.
Quarterback Jason Campbell is getting better as he becomes more comfortable running Oakland's offense. The Raiders are much better offensively when Darren McFadden is healthy, which he is now.
It's a disadvantage for Oakland that this is an early start time. However, that is evened out by the Raiders having been off last week while the Steelers suffered a confidence-eroding 39-26 home loss to New England. That 13-point defeat wasn't as close as the final score and exposed a lot of Pittsburgh's flaws.
2♦ OAKLAND
Derek Mancini
Arizona (+8') at KANSAS CITY
Now onto today's Freebie, as the Chiefs host the Cardinals in a game I expect will be closer than most bettors are anticipating. Why? A couple reasons, but none bigger than perception. Oddsmakers aren't stupid. They know most of you are expecting the Chiefs defense to bounce back against a putrid Arizona offense today. Maybe when this line first came out there was some value, but right now, that value has evaporated. Average bettors are making this their "smart" bet of the week, but the truth is, oddsmakers have already caught on.
True, Arizona looked terrible against Seattle last week, but there was a bright side. Derek Anderson looks like he's finally found some rythmn, posting a 91 QB rating at Minnesota two week ago, and then tossing for 322 yards against the Seahawks last week. If the Chiefs have a weakness on defense, its thru the air, where they got torched by Orton last week. I'm not saying Anderson is going to throw for 4 TDs, but he'll have his chances this afternoon.
Finally, for all the talk about how bad the Cardinals are playing, have you noticed the Chiefs regression over the last 3 weeks? 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, and their only win came against Buffalo in overtime... Not exactly lighting the world on fire! And please don't tell me you're buying into Cassel's 469 yards effort last week, he won't have that kind of the game for the rest of his life. Small, but solid play on the road dog here. Arizona plus the points over Kansas City Sunday.
1♦ ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
Baltimore (-11') at CAROLINA
Carolina has injuries coming out the wazzoo, and they will actually let Brian St. Pierre make his first career start. Oh boy!
Baltimore's prideful defense will make life miserable for St. Pierre and the rest of the walking wounded on the Panthers, as the Ravens will want to step up their effort after getting beat in the final minute of play their last time on the field in a loss at Atlanta.
The Ravens have had a few extra days to prepare for this game, and it is not unrealistic to think they will be able to limit Carolina to 3 or 7-points tops in this game.
Carolina is just 2-7 against the spread this season, and 7 of their 8 losses have come by 10-points or more.
G-Man fully expects a dominating performance by Baltimore as they cover the double-digit road impost this afternoon.
5♦ BALTIMORE
Stephen Nover
Baltimore (-11) at CAROLINA
Let's play the Ravens to get it done in Carolina.
No, I don't normally lay double-digits on the road in the NFL. But there's always exceptions - and this is one of them.
Carolina's offense is decimated. The Panthers are last in total offense averaging 250.6 yards per game and also rank on the bottom in scoring averaging 11.6 points. This isn't so shocking since the Panthers are down to their fourth-string quarterback and fourth-string featured back, while also having injuries in their offensive line and at wide receiver.
Brian St. Pierre, a 31-year-old journeyman quarterback, will be making his first NFL start. He's been with the Panthers a little more than a week and now he's facing one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Ravens are very strong defensively when attacked head on, which is the Panthers' style. The way to beat the Ravens is to spread their defense out with multiple good wideouts and an accurate quarterback. The Panthers aren't close to having this kind of offense.
Carolina also is hurting defensively having recently lost linebackers Dan Connor and Thomas Davis. This has really hurt its run defense. Look for Ray Rice to have another big game. Joe Flacco is playing well for Baltimore. Since Week 3, he's had a 14-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Panthers have an NFL-worst 26 giveaways. They are 1-8 straight-up and 2-7 ATS. John Fox is a lame duck coach. Management long ago gave up on this season. Fox didn't have a chance and now he's just looking for a landing spot.
2♦ BALTIMORE
Craig Davis
Baltimore (-11') at CAROLINA
Today's free play is on the Baltimore Ravens to roll the Carolina Panthers.
Two words: Brian St. Pierre. With Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen sidelined with injury, the Panthers now look to third-stringer Brian St. Pierre to lead this offense to places they haven't been this year.
Carolina can't run the ball, and even though third-stringer Mike Goodson had a decent game last week, this isn't the Bucs run defense they're going to be facing today either. Baltimore is one of the tops in the league at stopping the run, which will likely make the Panthers one-dimensional.
That dimension is a passing game that really hasn't existed all season either.
Carolina already ranks in the bottom five of the league in every major offensive category, and that was with better QBs under center. Today they throw out a QB who hasn't taken a professional snap in two seasons. WR Steve Smith isn't 100% and the other pass-catchers they have on this roster are young and inexperienced.
This is exactly the type of game the Ravens need to get back on track after last week's loss to Atlanta. And Baltimore is extra-rested having not played since last Thursday.
Baltimore's Ray Rice should be a huge factor, not only in the running game but also the short passing game. And now with Donte' Stallworth healthy in the receiving corps, that makes the Ravens even more potent.
The Ravens simply have too many weapons for Carolina to keep up, and I expect this one to be over by the 3rd quarter. Ravens roll.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Derek Mancini
Cleveland at JACKSONVILLE (-2)
I know its tempting to grab the Browns plus the points, but I'm going to advise you against it this afternoon in Jacksonville. Why? As tempting as it may be, oddsmakers have grown wise to the Browns, and there's no way they would be giving you point here, UNLESS they were extremely confident the Jags were going to cover. In other words, they're begging for Browns money, which is unnecessary, because the public loves Cleveland in this spot anyway.
Browns have opened a lot of eyes over their L3 games, but don't make the mistake of underestimating the Jaguars here. First, they're at home, where they've proven effective (see wins against Indy and Houston). And second, they're offense has finally gotten on track, averaging 29 ppg on nearly 400 yards of total offense over that 3-game span. Browns have been hot too, but the Jags are still flying under the radar.
I get it. You don't believe the Jaguars should've won last week, based on that ridiculous hail mary. And you also believe the Browns should've won against the Jets. So it makes perfect sense that the Browns win here, but the problem is the letdown factor. Browns put everything they had into beating the Jets, and still came up short. Reproducing that kind of effort on the road, against what is considered a lesser opponent is going to next to impossible. Cleveland is still a young team, and if ever they're going to have a letdown, it would be today. Lay the points with Jacksonville this afternoon.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE
Joel Tyson
Buffalo (+5) at CINCINNATI
Don't want anything to do with this Cincinnati team when they are laying points, as the Bengals already 0-2 this season when installed as the favorite at home, and have failed 8 in a row in that role dating back to last season!
Buffalo finally got a straight up win last week against Detroit, as they are on a 3-0-1 spread run their last 4 games - all 4 games decided by a field goal or less!
The Bills are also on a 3-0 spread run their last 3 on the road to improve to 7-4 against the line their last 11 as the road underdog.
Cincinnati's current 6 game losing streak has probably sealed the fate of coach Marvin Lewis, and with the Bengals showing not a lot of will to win these days, I have to back the still-trying Bills plus the points to keep this game close at Paul Brown Stadium today.
Buffalo plus the points the play.
2♦ BUFFALO
Chuck O'Brien
Atlanta at ST. LOUIS (+3)
Sunday’s second of two complimentary NFL selections is the Rams as a home underdog against Atlanta.
All St. Louis does is cover pointspreads. Since coming up just short in a season-opening 17-13 loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog, the Rams have gone 7-1 ATS (6-1 ATS as a pup). They’re also 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this span, with three blowout wins over the Redskins (30-16), Seahawks (20-3) and Panthers (20-10), plus a gritty 20-17 victory over the supremely talented Chargers (San Diego as a 9½-point road chalk).
Atlanta is coming off a last-minute 26-21 win over Baltimore as a one-point home favorite, and the Falcons are 7-1 since a 15-9 overtime loss at Pittsburgh. Without question, Atlanta has to be considered among the top teams in the NFC, if not the entire league. But if there’s one nit to pick with the Falcons it’s the fact that they’re coming off three straight home games, and in their last road trip they played their worst game of the season in a 31-17 loss to the Kevin Kolb-led Eagles.
Also, beginning with that loss in Philly, Atlanta’s defense has been very suspect, yielding 31, 32, 21 and 21 points. By comparison, the Rams have held seven of nine opponents to 18 points or less, and at home they’ve given up just 10, 17, 3 and 16 points. Visitors to the Edward Jones Dome are also netting just 294.4 yards per game, including 79.2 rushing ypg (the Falcons give up 373.8 yards per game on the road, including 97 rushing ypg).
With Atlanta coming off that five-point win as a one-point home chalk against Baltimore, it’s interesting to note that this team has alternated spread-covers in seven straight games and has cashed in back-to-back contests just once all season (back in Weeks 2 and 3, and they were an underdog in one of those games).
These former division rivals have met six times since 2002, and the home team is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. Going back further, the Rams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
With the Rams riding a four-game SU and ATS home winning streak, and with Atlanta in a classic letdown situation, I’ll take the points with the host (and wouldn’t be surprised at all if St. Louis picks up win #5 in a row at home).
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
Tampa Bay (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO
Not sure what the oddsmakers are seeing, other than a viable playoff candidate heading to the Bay Area to play one of the more disappointing teams in the league.
The thing that stands out most for me with this clash is that even though the 49ers have been in close games in all but two blowout losses, they seem to have a knack for letting up offensively after fast starts.
And after watching Tampa Bay up close and seeing Josh Freeman work his comeback magic, I know how this team likes to win in the fourth quarter.
So the only chance the 49ers have to win this game is by opening up a big enough lead to dominate and blow out the Buccaneers. I don't see that happening.
In fact, I don't see the Niners getting a double-digit lead on Frisco, which means Freeman and running back Legarrette Blount will always be in this football game.
The Bucs' running game is going to be my key, as time control will be on my side. Tampa Bay is averaging 140.0 yards in the last four games. Blount has rushed for three touchdowns and 329 yards during that stretch.
I want the team that has been more consistent this season, and that would be the Buccaneers.
5♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Indianapolis at NEW ENGLAND (-4)
For my comp selection, certainly the marquee NFL game of the week comes from New England as the Patriots host the Colts as this rivalry is renewed. I’m going to lay the points with the Patriots as they just looked superb a week ago in Pittsburgh while Indy has been getting the job done lately with smoke and mirrors.
Two weeks ago, the Pats had their five-game winning streak snapped in Cleveland, which didn’t sit well with New England QB Tom Brady. Then they went out and just dominated the Steelers, even though the final score was 39-26, the game was even that close as the Pats won outright as 4 1/2-point underdogs. The game was 23-3 early in the fourth quarter.
Indianapolis escaped with a 23-17 home win over the Bengals last week, failing as 6 ½-point favorites. They gave up an onsides kick with about 2 minutes to go but were able to pick off Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer to preserve the win. The Colts give up 25.6 points per game on the road and allow 157.2 yards rushing per game.
The Pats have the ability to run the ball with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the precision passing game was on fire last week with Brady finding his receivers at will against a very good Steelers’ defense.
Brady is 7-4 in 11 career games against Peyton Manning, including 2-1 in the playoffs. Manning had just 185 passing yards against the Bengals and he didn’t throw a TD pass for the second time this season.
Brady has won his last 24 regular-season home starts and the Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 ATS). They are on further ATS runs of 37-18-1 as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points, 5-2 in Week 11 games and 3-1-1 against the AFC.
I loved the way the Pats picked apart the Steelers and you’ll see more of that today from Brady & Co. Lay the points and play the Patriots.
4♦ NEW ENGLAND
Bobby Maxwell
Golden State (+11') at L.A. LAKERS
For my comp selection, Golden State has lost 10 straight to the Lakers, so I don’t think the Warriors are going into the Staples Center and coming out with the win, but I do think this game will be close and get inside the number.
Golden State guard Monta Ellis had 40 points on Friday night in the Warriors 125-119 loss to the Knicks, but they failed to play any defense. The Lakers scored a 112-95 win at Minnesota on Friday night and cashed as a nine-point road favorite.
These two teams met on Oct. 31 with the Lakers getting the 107-83 win and cover as 9 ½-ponit favorites. But the Warriors had cashed in the previous three meetings and five of the previous seven. Last year in Los Angeles they covered both meetings as 8 ½ and 13 point underdogs. In this series, the road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
Los Angeles also has a tough time covering a big number at home on Sundays. The Lakers are just 3-8 ATS on Sundays, plus just 1-6 ATS at home against teams with losing road records. Golden State is on ATS surges of 13-6-1 after getting one day off, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 12-2 against the Pacific Division and 19-7-1 after a straight-up loss.
I’ll go ahead and grab the points with Ellis, Steph Curry and the Warriors. Play Golden State tonight.
2♦ GOLDEN STATE
Chris Jordan
Golden State at L.A. LAKERS (-11')
The Lakers on a Sunday night seems to be magical money. It's a system I'll play all the time every year. I'll always lead my analysis that way too. I won't look at the opponent, I won't look at the spread, I won't analyze the matchup... I'll just pencil in the Lakers on a Sunday night at home!
Then I'll go read about the game.
So what did I find?
Well, The Lakes are laying -11' points to Golden State... no surprise there, given the Warriors are a high-scoring team and will play an uptempo game. The Lakers will oblige, and by making it a fast-paced game, they're going to score enough to cover a double-digit spread.
I've watched this Lakers team closely, and what I've noticed how much more offense they continue to find as the season is 15 percent gone.
And get this, the two-time defending NBA champs are 5-0 this season when Kobe Bryant is held under 25 points. Friday marked the third time in four games they've had at least five players score in double figures, and the reserves accounted for 45 points.
Los Angeles might have its most complete team in the Kobe-Phil era, as its getting production from everywhere.
Couple that with the fact Los Angeles has won 24 of 27 overall versus Golden State, which has beaten the Lakers at Staples Center once in its last 15 tries, and I'd say you're in store for a blowout win.
Lay the chalk with the Lakers.
2♦ LOS ANGELES
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Texans +7
Odds makers are giving the Jets too much respect with this line. New York hasn't won by more than 6 points in any of its last four games, and that 6-point win even came in overtime. Plus, Houston will be very hungry after 3 straight defeats. The last 2 have come by just 6 and 7 points respectively. That 7-point loss is deceiving because Jacksonville completed a Hail Mary with no time left last Sunday. The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, while the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Lastly, Houston is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games after 2 or more consecutive losses, only losing these games by 2.7 points on average. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Baltimore Ravens -11
Motivated by last week's loss to Atlanta, and with the benefit of a few extra days to prepare having played that game on Thursday, look for the Ravens to take care of business here against a Carolina team that has lost 6 games by at least 13 points. The Panthers are the walking wounded. Coach Jon Fox is throwing quarterback Brian St. Pierre to the wolves, as the inexperienced signal caller won't have DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart with him in the backfield. Plays on road teams (BALTIMORE) off a road loss in November games are 43-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is an impressive 27-5 ATS the last 3 seasons. It may be simple, but it has been simply profitable. Lay the points with Baltimore.
Chip Chirimbes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3
The San Francisco 49ers have finally found that spark in quarterback Troy Smith who has been a shot in the arm for a team that had no offense with Alex Smith. Tampa Bay has now covered three straight entering this divisional encounter but with the status of receiver Mike Williams in limbo I look for the Niners to take advantage. Frisco holds a 15-4 series advantage and I see them winning here. Take the 49ERS!