Randall the Handle
THE BEST
Browns @ Lions PINNACLE
Excuse us for piling on here but this Cleveland squad is last in almost every offensive and defensive category with no hope in sight. The end zone is as foreign to the Browns as a hockey player is in the Caribbean. The Browns have scored a mere 25 points in their last five games while producing only five offensive touchdowns in their past 15 games. To compare, the Saints defence has scored seven majors this season. Detroit has issues but they play hard, have more skilful players and will welcome this lame visitor arriving on a short week.
TAKING: Detroit –3 ½ +1.03
RISKING: 2 units
Redskins @ Cowboys PINNACLE
In sports, we hear a lot about rivalries. Most are overstated. This one is not. No matter what their records are, who their quarterback or coach might be or where the game is being played, the Cowboys and Redskins traditionally play close games. In their past 10 meetings, each team has won five times. Only once have the Cowboys managed to win by more than five points. Washington is solid defensively, leading the league in passing yards allowed. Dallas took a hit on its offensive line with injury to Marc Colombo. No one gets too far away here.
TAKING: Washington +11
RISKING: 2.06 units to win 2
49ers @ Packers Sports Interaction
Not anxious to spot points with cushiony Packers against this spirited opponent. Niners best when taking road points with covers at Arizona, Minnesota, Indianapolis and a push at Houston. Green Bay continues to put its quarterback in danger with Aaron Rodgers having been sacked a league-leading 41 times this season. Expect the 49ers pass rush to apply pressure all day long and to create some opportunities for its offence. Green Bay may also want to conserve some energy with Thursday game upcoming.
TAKING: San Francisco +6½
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2
THE REST:
Steelers @ Chiefs
Not sure about mental makeup of Steelers heading into this one after suffering a 2nd loss to Bengals last week and having the Ravens on deck. The loss of Troy Polamalu has huge impact and could allow Chiefs to keep closer than expected.TAKING: Kansas City +10
Saints @ Buccaneers
Thanks Rams. By staying close with Saints last week, oddsmakers were reluctant to price New Orleans in two-touchdown range. Asking rookie QB Josh Freeman to keep pace with masterful Drew Brees is like asking a tricycle to stay close with a motorcycle.TAKING: New Orleans –11
Colts @ Ravens
Tough to go against undefeated Colts but they were completely outplayed for 45 minutes last week before controversial comeback win. That effort had to take its toll and that won’t bode well against this physical foe.TAKING: Baltimore +1
Falcons @ Giants
Few teams needed a bye as much as the Giants and it doesn’t hurt that they’ll face a poor traveling Falcons squad that will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Eli Manning could have big day against Atlanta’s suspect secondary.TAKING: NY Giants –6½
Bills @ Jaguars
Can’t trust the Jaguars as a home favourite and we need only to look at games here this year against the Rams and Chiefs to confirm that. In fact, Jacksonville has failed to cover a home game as chalk in its past eight attempts.TAKING: Buffalo +8½
Seahawks @ Vikings
If they haven’t already, Minnesota is quickly becoming a public team and that results in inflated prices. Seattle has struggled with injuries but some of the wounded are returning and Seahawks have enough fire power to stay within range.TAKING: Seattle +11
Bengals @ Raiders
Bengals flying high after knocking off Steelers for second time and going 5-0 in division. However, this could be a flat spot for them after demanding month. Cincinnati has failed to score 20 points in four of past five, making prohibitive spot risky.TAKING: Oakland +9
Chargers @ Broncos
A sore knee will likely prevent QB Kyle Orton from participating in this one and the timing couldn’t be worse. The Broncos are free falling while the Chargers have won four straight. First place changes hands on this day.TAKING: San Diego –?
Cardinals @ Rams
The Rams are inching their way back to competitive. They won two weeks ago and gave the powerful Saints more than they bargained for last week. St. Louis is still miles from respectability but new coach has them on right track.TAKING: St. Louis +9
Eagles @ Bears
Philadelphia remains an enigma as it has moved up and down the field but has failed to cash in points. Same can’t be said for Bears team that has little to no chemistry. After Giants, Cowboys and Chargers, Eagles may find this one more suitable.TAKING: Philadelphia –3
Jets @ Patriots
Jets have lost five of six and now are faced with the unenviable task of taking on a Patriots team that will be looking to hurt someone after their coach was raked over coals this week. Pats owe Jets for earlier loss. Revenge comes in a big way.TAKING: New England –10 ½
Titans @ Texans
Texans are undependable and when you consider that they lost home games already to the mediocre Jaguars and Jets, it would be foolish to give away points to a surging Titans squad. Tennessee lost to Houston earlier and is now afforded a national stage to make amends.TAKING: Tennessee +4 ½
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND –10½ over NY Jets
The media and a lot of other folks are blaming Bill Belichick for the Patriots loss last week when he went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2:06 remaining and missed. Believe what you want, but Belichick didn’t make an error or bad judgment. Like 40 or 50 yards was going to make a difference to Peyton Manning with three time outs remaining and the two-minute warning. The real “genius” of it all was that instead of the team taking the heat for the loss, Belichick has all the egg on his face and don’t think for a second that the players don’t know that. The coach had the balls to make one of the best calls of the year but it didn’t work out. Had they punted the result very likely would’ve been exactly the same. Now the players get a chance to respond to the coach that took all the heat off them and put it on himself and no way are the Jets going to get in the way. Mark Sanchez’s Cinderella start is a distant memory, as is the Jets 3-0 start. The films are out on Sanchez and thus, he’s been nothing but another rookie QB since week 3. The Patriots also remember a loss in New York to these Jets in week 2 when Rex Ryan couldn’t keep his cake-hole quiet, both before the game and after. The Patriots have had this one circled since then and given the choice, this is the team they would love to crush more than any other. As for the Jets, well, they have one win in its last six games and it came against the Raiders. Need I say more? The Pats will put a beating on this visitor and they won’t let up for a second. Play: New England –10½ (Risking 2.68 units to win 2.5).
ST. LOUIS +9 over Arizona
The Rams are so close to breaking out. This squad is 1-8 and the season is over but they haven’t lost focus and they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the business. Last week they lost by five at home to the 8-0 Saints. The Rams have also played Minnesota, Indy, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Fran and many of those losses were misleading especially the one against the Vikes in which they racked up 400 yards of offense. The Rams defense is better than its stats indicate and its offense is one that is becoming more efficient and more dangerous with each passing week. The Cardinals are dangerous too; make no mistake about that. However, they’ve had it much easier over the past few weeks with two games against Seattle and games against Chicago, the reeling Giants and Carolina. The Cardinals have had some easy wins on the road by big scores and that’s certainly not been there M.O. over the years. It’s tough enough to win on the road in this league but to keep winning road games by double-digits is a rarity and these Cards are just not that good to keep that going. Definite upset possibility. Play: St. Louis +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY +11½ over New Orleans
The Bucs have a new QB and a new attitude to go along with it. One week after defeating the Pack 38-28 for its first win of the year, Josh Freeman and the Bucs nearly made it two straight with a last second loss in Miami last week. The team has a little bounce in its step and they’ll be very jacked up and excited to play the 9-0 Saints. This danger here for the Saints is that it’s their second straight on the road and they’ll host the Patriots on Monday Night Football next week. The Saints have been able to mask a lot of its shortcomings because they’re winning but turning the ball over as much as they do is going to catch up to them at some point. This is a juggernaut offense that could go down as one of the best in history but they’ve turned the ball over 13 times over the past four weeks and that shows a lack of focus. With the Patriots on deck in prime time, losing focus here is a huge concern. The Saints have always had difficulties at Raymond James Stadium and although things change over time, one would have to believe the Bucs will be more up for the task at hand. The better team doesn’t always win in this league. Wagering on the NFL is all about finding the right spots to go against a team and this would appear to be a very vulnerable spot for the guest. Oh, one side note to this game is the Bucs FG kicker, Connor Barth, connected on three 50-plus yard field goals in Miami last weekend. When you’re taking back 11½ points the kicker could be a huge factor in getting the cover. Anyway, I never play a team that I don’t think has a chance to win outright and it would not surprise me to see the Saints overlook this host in anticipation of next week’s showdown. Play: Tampa Bay +11½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Vernon Croy
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Washington Redskins +11
his pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and we are getting very good line value with the Redskins here Sunday afternoon. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Cowboys and the Underdog has covered in 20 of the last 27 games between these two teams. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of -10.5 points or more and they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against an NFC East opponent. Dallas has not beaten the Redskins by more than 5 points over their last 4 meetings and the Redskins have won 2 of the last 4 meetings with the Cowboys outright. The Redskins are coming off a big win at home against Denver and I look for them to build on that win heading to Dallas. Take the Washington Redskins as my NFL Free Play for Sunday as they keep this game close.
John Ryan
Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland as they take on the Detroit Lions in what has to be to regarded as the 2009 Toilet Bowl. AiS shows a 78% probability that Cleveland will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 58% probability of winning the game. Without the aid of my AiS neural net, I would not even look at this game – nor would you for that matter. But, this is one of countless reasons the AiS has given me the opportunity to make more money with opportunities that I would have overlooked simply because of subjective reasoning. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 73-41 ATS since 1999. Play against home teams in November where the line is +3 to -3 after 1 or more consecutive losses. The Browns Cribbs may be the single player on the field that will have the greatest impact in propelling the browns to their 2nd win. Detroit is one of the worst kick coverage teams in the league period. I will even go out on a limb and state that he will run one back. Despite the fact that the Browns rank 32nd in passing offense they are going up against the 32nd ranked passing defense. Quinn had pressure in his face as soon as he planted to throw in the MNF game against Baltimore. He will certainly have more time to throw. When he does get time he is a very accurate QB with loads of confidence. The biggest difference in this game is that the Browns defense is a far superior unit to their Lions counterparts. They played well and with heart throughout the entire loss to the Ravens. Take Cleveland.
Craig Trapp
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3
One of the most dissapointing teams this season has been the CHI Bears. This will be the 2nd straight week that they are featured in a prime time game and think we will see the same results. When the trade of Cutler was made I wrote an article stating how over rated he was. His accuracy has been even worse this season and his decision making has been dowright terrible. The Bears have a lack of playmakers on offense that makes it even more difficult for an average QB to shine. The Eagles on the other hand have an abundance of playmakers. Jackson has been one of the better WR's in the league this year and is a threat to take it to the house on nearly every play. The Eagles have put themselves in a position where they need to finish 5-2 at a minimum and looking at their schedule this one is a must win. The Eagles defense has been exposed the last two weeks with the blitzes not finding their home very often. Good news this week is that the Bears offensive line can't protect Cutler and have been giving up a ton of sacks. This week the Eagles defense will carry the load creating a ton of to's and possibly even TD's. A double digit win by the Eagles.
Rob Vinciletti
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Over 44.5
This game fits a nice totals system I use that dates to 1989. What we want to do is go over the total for teams on the road when the spread is -3 to +3 if they are off a home game where the spread was -3 to +3 and they scored 35 or more points, with 250 or more yards passing,and today's opponent is coming off a road game. This system has cashed over 85% of the time and averages 52 points per game in all games it has applied to over the last 20 years. The Colts are coming off the big gift win at home against the Patriots,a game they should have lost. The last 2 years they have had no problems with the Ravens defense,torching them for 75 points. In fact the last time these 2 teams played here the game produced 64 points. The Colts should have no problems scoring today. Baltimore is coming off a solid defensive effort in shutting out the pathetic Cleveland Offense. However they were somewhat conservative on offense knowing the Browns would be hard pressed to score on them. Look for the Ravens to open it up on offense today and score some points on an Indy defense that was really picked apart last week by the Patriots. Take the Over here today.
Bob Wingerter
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Play: Over 45
If the guy thought his defense was any good, he would have punted on 4th down. After the Patriots’ defense gives up yards and points to the sorry Jets and their seriously deluded rookie QB, people will start to understand. The Patriots are back in we must out- score the opponent mode. The New England Patriots are ranked 2 on offense, averaging 416.8 yards per game. The Patriots are averaging 114.1 yards rushing and 302.7 yards passing so far this season. Over is 6-0-1 in Jets last 7 games in November and 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC. Over is 4-0-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
LT Profits
The Arizona Cardinals have been on fire offensively, and playing inside a dome vs. a terrible St. Louis Rams defense, the Cardinals are capable of scoring close to 40 points in this game themselves, making the Over worth a long look here.
The Over is now an incredible 40-18 in the last 58 Arizona road games, and quarterback Kurt Warner and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have been with the club for much of that stretch, making the trend relevant.
The Cardinals are averaging 25.4 points per game overall this year, but remember that they were held below 20 points in two of their first three games. In their six games since a 31-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in a Sunday night game, Arizona has averaged 28.7 points and a whopping 378.0 yards per game, and their running game has improved in recent weeks as Beanie Wells has become more involved in the offense, making their lethal passing game even more dangerous.
This makes for a nightmarish matchup for a St. Louis defense that is ranked 28 in the NFL in total defense, allowing 378.6 yards and 27.7 points per game. Yes, the Rams stood up surprisingly well to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints last week, but the end results was a disheartening loss, and we simply do not see the St. Louis defense matching that intensity here.
The biggest threat to this Over is the Rams offense, but they did put up 23 on the Saints and they are capable of scoring some late garbage points here should Arizona open up a big lead.
Besides, the Rams may not need to score much for this game to go Over if the Cardinals have as much success offensively as we expect.
Pick: Cardinals/Rams Over 46.5
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
When the Niners take on the Packers at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon they will do so knowing they are 7-1-1 ATS as dogs under head coach Mike Singletary. NFL favorites of a SU underdog win that was preceded by back-to-back SU favorite losses are 2-12 ATS when laying more than four points. With Packer backers just 1-6 ATS off a non-division game in which they allowed seven of less points, the points become the play here today.
Scott Rickenbach
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5
Buffalo just fired their head coach on Tuesday. Dick Jauron is out and you will now see people lining up with the old “fired head coach” theory. Count us out of that group! The Bills are simply a mess and it has much more to do with than just coaching. The offense has all kind of problems with no consistency from the QB position and WR Terrell Owens turning out to be a bust. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been devastated by injuries. After their bye week, the Bills responded to the extra rest by getting clobbered by the Titans 41 to 17. Yes, the game got away from them late but that doesn’t change the fact that this team has major issues and they’re “ripe for the picking” again here. New coach or not, it doesn’t matter, this team has major issues.
The injuries on defense are bad enough but note how inept the offense is. In eight of their nine games this season the Bills have failed to get to 300 yards of offense. Also, in seven straight games they have not had a quarterback throw for 200 passing yards. Neither Trent Edwards nor Ryan Fitzpatrick has been able to get the job done for this struggling team. It won’t get any easier for the Bills on Sunday. They’re visiting Jacksonville and the Jaguars have won five of their last seven games. Also, while the Bills have been held to an average of 15 points per game this season, the Jaguars have averaged nearly 28 points per game in those five victories. The Jags keep their momentum going this week!
ALEX SMART
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -10
The Seattle Seahawks head into the Metrodome to clash with the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and even though the oddsmakers have stuck a hefty line on the game, this one reeks of blowout for the boys in purple and gold.
The best comparison to this game for Seattle was its game against Dallas. The Seahawks lost that day 38-17 as ten-point underdogs, coming nowhere near covering the spread. Truth be told, this has been an awful road team the entire season...
@ Arizona +9 (L 31-20)
@ Dallas +10 (L 17-38)
@ Indianapolis +10 (L 34-17)
@ San Francisco +1 (L 23-10)
That's four double digit losses, and save that game at Indy, this is probably the hardest one of the bunch for the Seahawks.
Minnesota has proven to be a lethal home team this season, going undefeated SU. Granted, the Vikes were pushed to the wire against both Baltimore (W 33-31) and San Francisco (W 27-24), but the only game against a team this poor came last week against Detroit, which was a 27-10 victory. The Vikes have scored at least 27 points in all four of their home games this year and should have no problem duplicating that against a team that is allowing 22.0 points per game (after posting two shutouts!).
The Seahawks are just 1-5 ATS in their L/6 games against NFC foes, while Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in its L/6 games against teams with a losing record. Bank on the hosts to post another solid victory! Book it!!!
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -8
We've gone 6-1 (86%) our last seven "Free NFL Home Page" selections with a big outright 6 1/2 point underdog winner with the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets last weekend. Congrats who all got down on that easy winner and also my winning "video pick" on the "over" in the same game ( >Parsons' 3rd "Free Video Pick Winner" in a row< ).
This week we're back on the Jaguars as for a number of different reasons I believe they'll take advantage of a floundering Bills team as Jacksonville makes a serious push to the playoffs:
To say Buffalo has had to deal with adversity this season would be an understatement; the Bills started their sixth different offensive line combination in their 41-17 loss to the Titans, and then had to blow that plan up when Demetrius Bell went down with a knee injury right before halftime.
It just seems to go from bad to worse for the Bills. Trent Edwards was back on the field after missing 2 1/2 games with a concussion, and he threw for 185 yards, but he giveth and taketh away as he tossed one TD pass to Lee Evans, and then threw a pick-six in the final three minutes that iced the game for Tennessee.
Marshawn Lynch has a laughable 254 yards in six games.
Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall.
On the other side of the field: Last week David Garrard had a 101.6 passer rating and threw a TD pass, and he wasn't intercepted against the Jets. He also directed a game-winning, 80-yard drive to set up the game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter.
Maurice Jones-Drew ran 24 times for 123 yards against the Jets to boost his total to 860 yards for the season and he'll look to have another huge day against a patchwork Bills defensive line.
On the defensive side: Rashean Mathis intercepted a Mark Sanchez pass on the first play of the game, and Quentin Groves intercepted a pass in the third quarter. The Jaguars held Sanchez to a 59.3 passer rating.
They also held Thomas Jones to 77 yards in 21 carries. Overall, they gave up just 110 yards rushing.
Bottom line: Two teams moving in different directions; a steady dose of Jones-Drew; an efficient and a limited mistake performance from Garrard, and an ever improving defensive unit; I recommend taking a serious look at JACKSONVILLE in this situation as I expect it to move to 5-2 ATS this season against conference opponents!
Kyle Hunter
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Play: Under 46
The Atlanta Falcons become much more one dimensional with Michael Turner out of the lineup. Matt Ryan is having a tough time lately and the Giants defense will likely be swarming in this one. I see the Giants trying to run the football quite a bit in this one and the clock rolling while this one stays low scoring. The Giants know they need this win badly, and I think that will lead to one of the best defensive efforts we have seen from them in a while.
Alex Grosse
Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +11
The Chiefs have not been an impressive football team this season but they are in a favorable position to cover the number against the Steelers. Troy Polomalu is out and this information alone gives us the green light to play K.C. as a double digit home underdog. Polomalu's presence makes the Pittsburgh Steelers a Super Bowl Contender. Without him Pittsburgh is not much better than an average football team. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS this season in games played without Polomalu and also including the games he played but left because of injury. The Steelers are not great at covering spreads, particularly on the road as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road contests. One thing you have to understand with Mike Tomlin is that he plays to win and couldn't care less whether his team wins by 3 touchdowns or a field goal. As a result, the Steelers are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. That being said, expect the Steelers to win but most likely by no more than a touchdown.
Black Widow
1* on Pittsburgh Steelers -10
Off a devastating loss to the Bengals last week, the Steelers realize there is no longer any margin for error. Pittsburgh now sits 2 games behind Cincinnati in the AFC North after getting swept by the Bengals this season. We fully expect the Steelers to come into Kansas City 100% focused, which will allow them to dominate from start to finish. The Chiefs are scoring just 12.3 points/game at home this season, with their last home contest resulting in a 7-37 loss to San Diego. The Chiefs are just 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a non-losing road record. Kansas City is losing by an average of 12.5 points/game at home this season, so there is some value with Pittsburgh who is still one of the best teams in the league despite their 6-3 record. The Steelers' losses have come by 3, 3 and 6 points so they aren't far from being undefeated. We strongly feel a double-digit blowout in favor of Pittsburgh is inevitable by game's end in this one. Take the Steelers and lay the points.