Tom Freese
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Under 36½
Oakland is 15-5-1 UNDER their last 21 November games and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 home games. The Raiders are 40-16-2 UNDER their last 58 games vs. a team with a winning record 20-8-2 OVER after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. Cincinnati is 7-0 UNDER their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. Cincinnati is 6-1 UNDER their last 7 games as favorites. The Bengals are 10-3 UNDER off an ATS win. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Wunderdog
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Play: Atlanta Falcons +7
This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.
Joseph D'Amico
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: New Orleans Saints -11
The Buc's have taken alot of hits to their defense this year. Now, in the past week they have lost Safety Will Allen and LB Rod Wilson. That will just open the door even wider for the NFL's most explosive air attack. QB Drew Brees will add to his 19 TD's and 2559 YP. The successful running game of the Saint's, now makes them a double threat. Tampa's biggest losses this season were to New England 35-7, Philly 33-14, and New York 24-0. All teams that are considered passing teams. Today they must face the most feared passing team in the league. The Buc's will rely on the very inexperienced Josh Freeman at QB. The road team is 9-3 ATS their L12 meetings and the Saint's are 5-2 ATS their L7 in Tampa Bay. New Orleans is also 6-1-1 ATS their L8 road games and 11-3 ATS their L14 as a favorite. Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS their L11 overall and 1-7 ATS their L8 at home. New Orleans lights up Tampa Bay.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Cleveland (1-8, 3-6 ATS) at Detroit (1-8, 2-6-1 ATS)
Two of the worst teams in NFL square off when the offensively challenged Browns travel to Ford Field to face the continually struggling Lions.
On Monday night, Cleveland fell flat against Baltimore in a 16-0 home loss as a 10½-point underdog. The Browns kept the game scoreless in the first half, then gave up all 16 points in the third quarter, including a Brady Quinn INT returned for a score. Cleveland has just five offensive touchdowns this year (three passing, two rushing), and none of the Browns’ running backs have reached paydirt through nine games. The Browns are averaging a league-worst 8.7 ppg.
Detroit has been slightly more competitive, losing to Minnesota 27-10 Sunday but getting the push as a huge 17-point road pup to snap a three-game ATS skid. The Lions have lost six in a row (1-4-1 ATS), and they are allowing a league-worst 29.3 ppg while scoring just 15.9 ppg (26th). QB Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 overall draft pick, is looking very much like a rookie, with six TDs more than offset by 12 INTs.
These teams have met each of the past eight preseasons, but haven’t played a meaningful game since October 2005, when Detroit scored a 13-10 win as a three-point road pup.
The Browns carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, 5-0 as a road ‘dog of the same price and 12-2 in roadies against teams with a losing home mark, but they are on ATS slides of 3-11-1 overall, 0-3-1 in November, 1-8-1 after a non-cover, 2-10-1 after a SU loss and 2-6 on the highway. The Lions carry negative ATS trends of 0-3-1 overall, 3-10 at Ford Field, 5-15-1 in November, 16-35-1 as a chalk and 2-5-1 as a home favorite, but they are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 hosting the AFC.
The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road (all as a pup), 4-0 in November and 19-7-2 against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on runs of 5-1 at home and 5-2 after a SU loss, but the over for the Lions is on stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 in November and 8-3 as a chalk of 3½ to 10.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
The Bills, who fired coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday, hit the road under interim coach Perry Fewell for a meeting with the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Buffalo was tied with Tennessee at 17 after three quarters last week, then gave up 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points in a 41-17 loss as a nine-point road ‘dog, precipitating Jauron’s dismissal. The Bills, averaging just 15.6 ppg (28th), have scored 17 points or less in six of their last seven outings, including four games of 10 points or less.
Jacksonville got a field goal in the final seconds to edge the Jets 24-22 Sunday as a 6½-point road underdog, winning SU for the third time in four games while also snapping a four-game ATS slide. Behind star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars have the NFL’s sixth-best rushing attack (140.1 ypg). Drew ran for 123 yards and a TD against New York, and over the past four games, he’s churned out 530 yards and seven TDs, averaging 132.5 ypg in that stretch.
These teams have squared off each of the past five years, alternating SU and ATS wins over that stretch, with Buffalo taking a 20-16 road win as a four-point pup in September 2008. The Bills are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is also on a 5-2 ATS run. The SU winner is on a 9-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and the road team is 6-3 ATS in that span.
The Bills are in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 1-8-1 in November, 1-4 against the AFC and 3-10 against winning teams, though they’ve gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight roadies and are on a 6-1 ATS swing against non-division foes. The Jaguars are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 1-4 overall, 2-10 at home, 1-11 laying points, 0-8 as a home chalk, 0-4 against losing teams, 3-8 after a SU win and 4-11 outside the AFC South.
The under has hit in four of the last five for Buffalo, but the Bills are on “over” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 6-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a road pup. The over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 8-2-2 in November and 12-3-2 with the Jags favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (6-3, 3-6 ATS) at Kansas City (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers look to rebound from their lowest offensive output of the year when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the dismal Chiefs.
Pittsburgh mustered just four Jeff Reed field goals Sunday against Cincinnati, losing 18-12 as a 6½-point home favorite. The loss snapped a five-game win streak (3-2 ATS) for the Steelers, who had put up at least 27 ppg during that surge. Despite the lack of offense against the Bengals, Pittsburgh’s defense remains among the league’s best, allowing just 277.4 ypg (second) and 17.4 ppg (sixth), and the Steelers field the league’s best run-stopping unit (69.3 ypg).
Kansas City earned a 16-10 victory over hapless Oakland last week as a one-point road pup, cashing for the fourth time in its last five games (2-3 SU). The Chiefs continue to field one of the NFL’s weakest scoring offenses, averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th), and they’re gaining just 266.6 ypg, which leads only the Raiders and Browns, respectively.
Pittsburgh is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Kansas City, including a 45-7 blowout home win giving 6½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest. The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes (7-0-1 ATS last eight).
The Steelers are stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall (all as a favorite), 1-5 on the road (also all as a chalk) and 2-6-1 in roadies against teams with a losing home record, and they are on a 2-6 ATS dive as a non-division double-digit chalk. The Chiefs’ current 4-1 ATS surge has all come from the underdog role, and they are on a 6-2 ATS uptick catching double digits. However, they carry negative ATS streaks of 4-13 at home (1-4 last five), 2-5 as an Arrowhead pup, 2-5 in the AFC and 4-9 against winning teams.
Pittsburgh is on “over” stretches of 16-7 within the AFC, 5-2 as a road favorite and 4-1 laying 3½ to 10 points on the highway. Likewise, K.C. is on “over” runs of 4-1-2 at home and 15-5-2 as a home pup, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
Indianapolis (9-0, 5-4 ATS) at Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS)
The red-hot Colts aim to remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL when they take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
Indianapolis overcame a 31-17 fourth-quarter deficit Sunday night to claim a 35-34 victory over New England as a two-point home chalk, the team’s 18th straight regular-season SU victory. The Colts benefited greatly from Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s blown fourth-down decision late in the fourth quarter, easily driving 30 yards for the winning TD. Indy sports the NFL’s third-best offense at 401.1 ypg, with QB Peyton Manning leading the No. 1 passing attack (315.1 ypg), and the Colts are fourth in scoring at 28 ppg.
Indianapolis remains No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg), despite the Pats putting up 34 points.
Baltimore claimed a lackluster 16-0 victory at Cleveland on Monday, scoring two TDs within 17 seconds in the third quarter (the second on a pick-six) to cover as a 10½-point favorite. Prior to that, the Ravens had been on a 1-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS). With the shutout, Baltimore now sports the seventh-best defense in yards allowed (302.8) and is fifth in scoring defense (17.1 ppg). Offensively, the Ravens are a 13th in total yards (348.9) and 11th in scoring (24.7).
Indianapolis is on a 6-0 SU tear (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 31-3 rout last year as a four-point home chalk. The Colts have cashed in the last five contests, winning all by at least nine points and three of them by 17 or more. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four November starts and 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1-1 as a road chalk and 26-9-1 in non-division roadies. The Ravens, meanwhile, are on a bundle of ATS upswings, including 21-8 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 in November, 7-3 getting points and 31-12 in non-division home games.
The under for Indy is on runs of 4-1 in November and 8-3 against AFC foes, and the under for Baltimore is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at M&T, 4-0 against the AFC and 5-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record. And in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings. That said, the over is 18-7-1 in the Ravens’ last 26 starts as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams in need of a victory in order to get back in the playoff race meet up when the freefalling Giants play host to the Falcons in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York, which had its bye last week, got out of the gate with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), but has since dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including a 21-20 setback to the Chargers as a five-point home chalk two weeks ago. The Giants have dropped two in a row at home SU and ATS, as they tumbled to Arizona two weeks before the San Diego loss. After averaging 30.2 ppg in its first five outings, New York has managed just 20.3 ppg during its losing skid, while allowing 33.3 ppg, including 40 to Philadelphia and a whopping 48 to New Orleans.
Atlanta was 4-1 SU and ATS through five weeks, but has lost three of four (2-2 ATS) after falling to Carolina 28-19 Sunday as a one-point road favorite. The Falcons are averaging 24.5 ppg during the slide (24.6 ppg for the year), but they are giving up points at a more rapid pace, yielding 29.3 ppg. Furthermore, all three losses were on the road – 37-21 at Dallas, 35-27 at New Orleans and last week’s setback in Charlotte.
New York has won and covered in the last two clashes in this rivalry, after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Atlanta. Most recently, the Giants rolled 31-10 on the road laying 4½ points in October 2007. The SU winner is on a 7-0 ATS roll, all as the visitor, and the Falcons are 4-0 ATS on their last four trips to face New York.
Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, the Giants are on pointspread declines of 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 2-6-1 after the bye, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-4-1 after a SU loss, though they still maintain positive ATS streaks of 39-13-3 within the NFC and 15-6 as a non-division favorite. The Falcons are on spread-covering streaks of 10-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 after a non-cover, 4-1 in November and 5-2 against NFC foes.
New York is on “under” stretches of 12-4 after a bye week and 9-4 coming off a SU loss, but the over is 5-2-1 in its last eight November outings. Atlanta is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road pup, 4-1 against winning teams, 12-3 after a SU loss and 11-4 after an ATS loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings (5-0-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
San Francisco (4-5, 6-2-1 ATS) at Green Bay (5-4 SU and ATS)
The Packers, looking to inject themselves back into the NFC playoff chase, are home at Lambeau Field for the third time in four weeks when they take on the 49ers.
Green Bay put up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs and didn’t let Dallas into the end zone until the final minute of a 17-7 home win as a three-point underdog Sunday, snapping a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Packers are eighth in total yards this year (366.2 ypg) and tied for seventh in scoring (25.8 ppg), bolstered primarily by the top turnover margin in the NFL, at plus-13. The Pack had two fumble recoveries and an INT against the Cowboys, while committing no turnovers.
San Francisco held off Chicago for a 10-6 home victory on Thursday, Nov. 12, to narrowly cover as a 3½-point home chalk and end a four-game SU purge (1-2-1 ATS). The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler five times, and the last one came in the end zone with the Bears in the red zone. San Fran is among the league’s least-effective offenses, averaging just 277.9 ypg (27th) and 20.4 ppg (21st), though the defense is only yielding 20 ppg (11th).
Green Bay has won six in a row SU in this rivalry (5-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes, including a 30-19 victory as a four-point road pup in December 2006, the most recent meeting. The Packers are also on a 4-0 ATS run against the Niners in Green Bay, and the SU winner is on a 7-1-1 ATS roll.
The Packers are on a handful of pointspread purges, including 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 in November, 2-5 as a home favorite and 2-5 hosting non-division teams. On the flip side, the 49ers are on ATS tears of 9-3-2 overall, 6-0-1 getting points, 5-0-1 as a non-division ‘dog, 3-0-1 on the road, 6-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2 in November.
Green Bay is on a bundle of “over” streaks, including 23-10-1 overall, 21-5 after a spread-cover, 18-5 after a SU win, 20-6-1 against NFC opponents, 17-6 laying points and 11-4 as a home chalk. Conversely, the under for San Fran is on stretches of 5-2 from the underdog role, 4-1 with the Niners getting 3½ to 10 points and 5-2 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Seattle (3-6 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (8-1, 5-3-1 ATS)
The Vikings, who have bounced back nicely from their only loss of the year, aim to keep rolling when they take on the return to the Metrodome to face the Seahawks, who are still searching for their first road win of 2009.
Minnesota coasted past Detroit 27-10 Sunday for its second consecutive win since its 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh, though it had to settle for a push against the dismal Lions as an overwhelming 17-point home chalk. The Vikings are racking up 30.1 ppg, second only to the Saints (36.8 ppg), while gaining 369.1 ypg (seventh). Minnesota also sports a high-pressure defense, leading the league in sacks at 34.
Seattle bolted out to a 14-0 lead on the road against the defending NFC champion Cardinals last week, but couldn’t make it stand up in a 31-20 loss as a nine-point ‘dog, getting outscored 14-3 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or less in six of their last eight games, losing those six contests SU and ATS.
These NFC rivals’ last meaningful meeting came in October 2006, with Minnesota rolling 31-13 as a six-point road pup. Also, the SU winner has covered in six straight contests between these squads.
Despite their lofty SU record, the Vikings are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 at the dome, 1-4-1 as a home chalk, 1-10-1 laying more than 10 points and 5-13-1 following a SU win. Still, they have positive ATS trends of 3-0-1 in November, 3-0-1 in conference games and 4-1-1 against losing teams. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight starts and are on further ATS slides of 0-5 on the highway, 0-6 getting points, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-5 in the NFC and 9-23 in non-division road games.
The over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the NFC, 4-1 with the Vikes a chalk and 7-2 in November, and the over for Seattle is on tears of 5-2 overall, 4-0 with the Seahawks a pup, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
Washington (3-6 SU and ATS) at Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Cowboys look to rebound from a sluggish road performance when they return to their palatial new stadium for an NFC East clash with the hated Redskins.
Dallas didn’t get on the scoreboard until the final minute of Sunday’s game at Green Bay, losing 17-7 as a three-point favorite to halt a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). It was a rare low-scoring effort for the Cowboys, who have netted 20 points or more in all but two games this year and have scored 26 or more five times. Dallas is fourth in the league at 390.4 total ypg, and defensively, the Pokes are giving up just 18.8 ppg (eighth).
Washington knocked off Denver 27-17 last week as a 3½-point home pup, ending a four-game SU slide and a three-game ATS skid. It was the highest scoring output of the season by far for the Redskins, who hadn’t broken 17 points in eight previous attempts. Even with that, though, Washington is averaging just 15.6 ppg (tied for 28th), and they are minus-6 in turnover margin (29th).
Dallas edged Washington 14-10 last November as a one-point road favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) by the Redskins in this rivalry. The underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 contests.
The Cowboys are a meager 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division starts and 1-4 ATS in their last five laying more than 10 points, but they are otherwise on ATS surges of 7-2 at home, 12-3 in November (5-1 last six), 4-1 against losing teams and 5-2 after a non-cover. The Redskins carry almost nothing but negative ATS trends, including 4-11-2 overall, 2-5-1 against the NFC, 1-5-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a 6-1 ATS run as a division road pup.
The over has hit in four of Dallas’ last five home games (all from the favorite’s role), and the under is 5-1 in Washington’s last six getting points. But the under is a lengthy 47-23-3 in the Cowboys’ last 73 games against losing teams, and for the Redskins, the under is on runs of 15-5-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a SU win, 7-3 inside the division, 10-4-1 against the NFC and 5-2 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
New Orleans (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-8, 3-6 ATS)
The high-flying Saints try to remain unbeaten against the league doormat Buccaneers in a meeting of NFC South rivals at Raymond James Stadium.
New Orleans held off St. Louis 28-23 in a much tougher game than expected, failing to cover as a hefty 14-point road chalk Sunday, and the Saints have now dropped three straight games ATS. QB Drew Brees leads the NFL’s No. 1 offense in both total yards (426.1 ypg) and scoring (36.8 ppg), nearly seven points per game ahead of the second-place Vikings (30.1). The defense has the Saints at fifth in turnover margin (plus-6), with 17 INTs (five returned for TDs) and eight fumble recoveries (two for TDs).
Tampa Bay followed up its first victory of the Raheem Morris era with a 25-23 loss at Miami on Sunday, though it covered as a 10-point ‘dog to cash for the second straight week, after its 38-28 home upset of Green Bay. Despite two better performances the past two weeks, the Bucs are still 28th in total offense (276.2 ypg) and 25th in scoring (17.4 ppg), and defensively, they stand 29th in total yards allowed (379.2 ypg) and 31st in points allowed (28.4 ppg), ahead of only Detroit.
New Orleans cashed in both meetings between these two last year (1-1 SU), stemming a 5-1 ATS run by Tampa in this rivalry (4-2 SU). The Bucs won the most recent clash 23-20 last November, though the Saints covered as a 3½-point road pup. The underdog is on a 10-4 ATS run in the last 14 meetings, but the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12, and New Orleans is 5-2 ATS on its last seven trips to Tampa.
Other than a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven division starts, the Saints are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4-1 overall, 6-1-1 in roadies, 11-3 laying points, 5-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 as a division road chalk. The Buccaneers have cashed in four of their last five November starts (2-0 ATS this month), but they are on a 1-12 SU freefall (4-9 ATS) and are on additional ATS plunges of 3-8 overall, 1-7 at Raymond James, 2-8 after a SU loss, 1-5 as a home pup and 2-5 against winning teams.
New Orleans is on “over” tears of 21-8-1 overall, 18-7-1 giving points, 15-5 as a road chalk, 19-7 following a SU win, 7-3 against NFC South foes and 36-17-1 within the conference. Likewise, Tampa is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 5-2 at home, 10-4 as a home pup and 7-3 after a SU loss, though the under for the Bucs is 8-3 in their last 11 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Arizona (6-3 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (1-8, 4-5 ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals, on the move again after a 1-2 start to the season, look to win their fifth straight road game when they take on the lowly division rival Rams at the Edward Jones Dome.
Arizona overcame a 14-0 deficit en route to a 31-20 home victory over Seattle last week as a nine-point favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week and moving to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six outings to take control of the NFC West. The Cards still aren’t running the ball well (84.2 ypg, 31st), but QB Kurt Warner has the passing game gaining 271 ypg (fifth), and the 38-year-old has seven TDs, no INTs and just one sack in his last two starts.
St. Louis gave unbeaten New Orleans a run before losing 28-23, easily covering as an overwhelming 14-point home pup. Relatively speaking, it was an offensive outburst for the Rams, who had scored more than 17 points just once all season prior to Sunday and had been held to 10 points or less five times. St. Louis is still averaging a meager 11.1 ppg, ahead of only the Raiders and Browns, while allowing 27.7 ppg (29th).
Arizona has won and covered three straight in this NFC West rivalry, by an average final score of 38.7-14, including a 34-13 rout last November in St. Louis giving three points and a 34-10 beatdown at home in December laying 14. The Cards are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five in the Gateway City, though the underdog is on an 8-3 ATS roll. Also, the SU winner is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests.
Along with their current 5-1 ATS surge, the Cardinals are 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year and are on further pointspread hot streaks of 5-0 on the highway, 5-1 in the division, 5-1 against losing teams, 8-2 against the NFC, 7-2 after either a SU or an ATS win and 11-5 as a chalk. On the flip side, the Rams are on spread-covering slides of 7-18 at the home dome, 7-17 after a SU loss, 6-16 against winning teams, 7-19 inside the NFC West and 4-12 as a home pup. St. Louis is also a putrid 1-18 SU (8-11 ATS) in its last 19 games.
The over for Arizona is on a boatload of rolls, including 35-16 overall, 5-0 in November, 21-7 after a SU win, 22-8 after a spread-cover, 37-14 against losing teams and 40-18 on the road. The over for St. Louis is on upswings of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a pup) and 4-1 against winning teams, but the under is 4-0-1 in the Rams’ last five division tilts. Finally, the total has gone high in five of the last seven St. Louis meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
N.Y. Jets (4-5 SU and ATS) at New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Patriots, looking to rebound from one of the most talked-about fourth-down decisions ever, take on the struggling Jets at Gillette Stadium.
New England had a 17-point fourth-quarter lead at Indianapolis on Sunday night and let it all get away in a 35-34 loss, though it covered as a two-point underdog. Leading 34-28 with about two minutes left, Bill Belichick opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 in hopes of sealing the win, and after the play narrowly failed, the Colts easily drove the short distance for the game-winning score.
The loss ended a three-game win streak (2-1 ATS) for the Pats, but short of Belichick’s decision, it was a solid night, as they rolled up 477 yards on one of the league’s top defenses. New England is second in the league in total offense (416.8 ypg) and third in scoring (28.8 ppg), while allowing just 304.6 ypg (eighth) and 16.7 ppg (third).
New York scored just three points in the second half last week and lost to Jacksonville 24-22 on a field goal in the waning seconds, also failing as a 6½-point home chalk. After a 4-0 SU and ATS start, the Jets are mired in a 1-5 SU and ATS plunge, with the only victory coming on the road against the hapless Raiders (38-0). On the positive side, the Jets field the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack, averaging 170.1 ypg.
New York dropped New England 16-9 in Week 2 as a 3½-point home ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS win in this rivalry. The Jets are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 contests in Foxborough, and the road team is on a 19-6-1 ATS roll, though New England is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.
The Patriots are on a 1-10 ATS freefall laying more than 10 points at home and are on a 3-8 ATS purge as a division home chalk, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 20-5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against losing teams. The Jets are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog, but along with their current 1-5 ATS skid, they are on spread-covering slides of 1-7 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 1-5 in the AFC East and 1-4 in conference play.
The over for New England is on streaks of 6-2 at home (all as a favorite) and 4-1 in November, but the under is 5-2 in the Pats’ last seven as a favorite and 8-3-1 with them giving more than 10 points. For New York, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0-1 in November, 5-1 against the AFC and 7-3 after a SU loss, but the under is on stretches of 7-3-1 with the Jets a pup, 4-0 with them getting more than 10 on the road and 9-4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati (7-2, 6-3 ATS) at Oakland (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
The streaking Bengals, all alone atop the AFC North, travel to the West Coast to take on the hapless Raiders at the Coliseum.
Cincinnati held defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh to just four field goals last week, springing an 18-12 upset as a 6½-point road pup, the third straight win and cover for the Bengals. Cincy has held those three foes – Chicago, Baltimore, then the Steelers -- to 12 points or less and now fields the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, allowing just 16.3 ppg.
Oakland lost to Kansas City 16-10 as a one-point home chalk for its third consecutive SU setback (1-2 ATS). The Raiders have now been held to 16 points or less in eight straight games, including five outings of 10 points or less. Not surprisingly, that puts them at 31st in the league in scoring, at a dismal 9.8 ppg, and Oakland holds that same spot in total offense, averaging a minuscule 222 ypg.
The Raiders’ woeful offensive effort finally led coach Tom Cable to bench former No. 1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski for the remainder of the season. Russell has just two TD passes against nine INTs, along with five lost fumbles.
These teams have met just twice this decade, splitting those games SU and ATS, with the home team winning in each case. Most recently, Cincinnati coasted 27-10 giving 10½ points in December 2006.
The Bengals have struggled as a favorite, shouldering ATS slides in that role of 1-6 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-10 laying more than 10 points and 0-4 on the road at that same price, and they are also on a 5-11 ATS slide versus losing teams. However, Cincy still carries positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-3 after a SU win, 18-7-1 in November and 6-3 as a non-division road favorite.
The Raiders have struggled regardless of role, as they are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 15-37-1 at the Coliseum, 9-21 as a home ‘dog and 6-14 in non-division home games.
Cincinnati sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 10-3 after a spread-cover, 6-1 as a chalk and 5-1-1 against losing teams. Likewise, the under for Oakland is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 against the AFC, 15-5-1 in November and 40-16-2 against winning teams. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at Denver (6-3 SU and ATS)
The reeling Broncos, once the toast of the league at 6-0 SU and ATS, take on the surging Chargers in a key AFC West battle at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver tumbled to lowly Washington 27-17 Sunday as a 3½-point road favorite, losing SU and ATS for the third straight week. The Broncos have mustered just 34 total points in those three losses, while giving up 85 points as all three opponents scored 27 or more. Denver is averaging just 18.6 ppg (24th), putting more pressure on its defense, which had been at the top of the league and still sits fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg) and fifth in yards allowed (292.2 ypg).
QB Kyle Orton (foot) was hurt on the final play of the first half against the Redskins and missed practice all week. Orton will be a game-time decision, and if he can’t go, verteran Chris Simms would get his first start since 2006.
San Diego held off San Diego 31-23 Sunday as a one-point home chalk for its fourth win in a row (3-1 ATS), erasing what had been a three-game deficit to Denver in the division. The Chargers are having no trouble scoring, putting up 26.3 ppg on the year (sixth), paced by QB Philip Rivers and the seventh-best passing game (259.8 ypg). However, despite the presence of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, the Bolts are dead last in rushing, at just 75.1 ypg.
Denver dropped San Diego 34-23 as a 3½-point road pup last month, outscoring the Chargers 17-3 in the second half. Prior to that, though, this rivalry belonged to the Chargers, as they were on a 5-0-1 ATS roll (5-1 SU). The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the SU winner is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear.
The Broncos are on ATS plunges of 0-4 after a SU loss, 7-22 after a non-cover, 1-4 in November, 5-14-1 in the division (2-7 at home) and 7-18-1 at Invesco, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference contests. The Chargers are on a 22-10-4 ATS run in the AFC West (6-3 ATS on the road), but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after a SU win and 2-6 against the AFC.
The under for Denver is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 against AFC foes, but the Broncos also hold “over” streaks of 11-4 inside the division, 15-4-2 after SU loss and 19-6-2 after an ATS setback. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on a bundle of “over” runs, including 9-4-2 overall, 4-1-2 in the division, 4-1 against winning teams, 8-3 after a SU win and 19-7-3 on the highway.
Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (5-4 SU and ATS) at Chicago (4-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to get back into the NFC playoff chase square off when the Eagles head to Soldier Field for a prime-time contest against the Bears.
Philadelphia fell to San Diego 31-23 last week as a one-point road ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Eagles are fifth in the league in scoring at 26.9 ppg, although they are just 12th in total yards (352.2 ypg). The big key for Philly has been turnovers, as it has posted a plus-10 margin, second in the league behind only Green Bay (plus-13). QB Donovan McNabb has avoided turnovers, tossing 12 TDs passes and just four INTs, and he’s lost just one fumble.
Chicago played the Thursday game last week, coming up short in a 10-6 loss at San Francisco as a 3½-point underdog, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week. QB Jay Cutler killed his team with five INTs, and he now has a league-worst 17 INTs on the year to put the Bears at minus-5 in turnover margin (27th). Chicago is middle-of-the-pack offensively, averaging 334.3 ypg (18th) and 20.7 ppg (20th), while allowing 313.8 ypg (10th) and 22.3 ppg (19th).
Chicago is on a 2-0 SU and ATS uptick in this rivalry, winning and cashing each of the past two seasons, including a 24-20 home win in September 2008 as a three-point pup. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in that stretch.
Despite their setbacks the past two weeks, the Eagles remain on ATS surges of 5-1 after either a SU or ATS loss, 4-1 against losing teams and 12-5 in conference action, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven November starts and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk of three or less.
The Bears sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 as a home pup, 12-5 after a SU loss and 11-5 getting three or less at home, though they shoulder negative pointspread trends of 1-4 overall, 1-7 as a ‘dog, 1-6-1 against winning teams and 2-6 in November.
The over has been the play for Philadelphia, as it is on tears of 8-2 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 7-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 against the NFC and 4-1 on the road. Chicago is on “over” runs of 22-10 at Soldier Field and 31-15-1 against NFC opponents, but the under for the Bears is on upswings of 4-0 from the underdog role, 6-1 after a SU loss and 7-2 after an ATS defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Sports Insights
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
This selection makes the "sports fan" in us cringe. However, our readers know that we always follow the contrarian market action -- and grab the best values we see in the "sports betting marketplace." So -- take out that Pepto Bismol and be ready to "man-up" for this game. Minnesota, at 8-1, looks like the "real-deal" and is certainly one of this year's NFL powerhouses. They have outscored their opponents by an average of about 10 points in a tough NFC North Division. Most bettors think that the Vikings will beat up on the 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
Indeed, 3 out of 4 bets are taking the Vikings at home this week, even minus the 11 points. We note, however, that the 3-6 Seahawks, have scored about as many points as they have given up. Seattle has shown some spark this season with two of their wins blowout victories. The "smart money" seems to agree that the Seahawks are better than their record shows, as evidenced by the "reverse line movement" in this game. We'll take the double-digit underdog and sell the high-flying Minnesota Vikings.
Seattle Seahawks +11 -105
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Talk about teams going in opposite directions... After a hot start -- including a win over the Patriots, the Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, after a slow start, the Patriots are looking like their old "powerhouse" selves, beating Tennessee 59-0 and TB 35-7, along the way to grabbing first place in the AFC East. Many bettors are thinking that the Pats will avenge their loss to the Jets in Week 2 -- and give the Jets a spanking at Gillette Stadium.
At the time of this writing, this game is the heaviest-bet game of the week. In addition, an overwhelming 80% of bets are taking the Patriots to beat the Jets by more than double-digit points. Our readers, however, know what this means. We want to "bet against the Public" -- and we like the Jets, plus the double-digit points for a number of reasons:
We see our old favorite "reverse line movement" in this game's sports marketplace action. Even with almost all the bets coming down on New England, the line ticked down from the opener of Jets +11, down to +10.5. Let's grab the sharp's coattails and take the double-digit underdog.
This is a good divisional rivalry. The Jets have a good young QB and should be up for this game.
Buy the Jets at this recent "low."
Sell the Pats after some of their recent blowout wins.
New York Jets +10.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
One of our more colorful offshore contacts circled this game early in the week. We spoke to this line-maker and he was carrying on about some of his sportsbook's sharpest bettors piling onto Houston early in the week. The line opened at Houston -3.5 but moved to -4.5 at most books by Monday! SportsInsights flagged this move as "steam moves" early in the week.
Our contact said that Tennessee was attracting some Square money because they reeled off three wins in a row. However, the wins have been against the likes of mediocre teams like Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Buffalo. The last win was a blow-out win of 41-17 over Buffalo. Needless to say, our guy thinks the Titans are overrated right now. On the other hand, Houston lost a very tough decision to undefeated Indianapolis -- at Indy -- by a score of 20-17, last week.
Houston, with its 5-4 record, looks a bit undervalued, while Tennessee is overrated with its current three-game winning streak. Let's "buy low" and "sell high" and take a "surprising" favorite as a contrarian play ("surprising" because we don't often find value on favorites).
Houston Texans -4.5
BIG AL
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Prediction: New York Jets
These two teams met earlier this season, and New York was victorious winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog. Even though the Patriots play this game with revenge, and even though New England's generally terrific off a straight-up loss (they're 19-3 ATS since Dec. 2002), we're going to buck the Patriots and grab the points here. New York comes into this game on a 2-game losing streak, and both of those losses came at home. And, dating back to 1986, road underdogs of +3 or more points are 40-21 ATS if they've lost exactly two straight, and both of those losses came at home. And if our road team is matched up against a foe off a loss, our 40-21 angle zooms to 24-5 ATS! Take the points with the Flyboys.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington Redskins +11
Condensed writeups today to get plays out ASAP so you can lock in your wagers. This is a rivalry game and we rarely see blowouts in such contests. In fact, seven of the last 10 games in this series have been decided by five points or less. Last year, the winning margin in the two games was 2 and 4 points. I expect another close one here. This series has been all about the dog. The underdog is 14-9 SU and an impressive 18-5 ATS dating back to 1997. Also, plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points - excellent offensive team (>=5.8 ypp) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 ypp) are 25-6 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system illustrates how Dallas has been overvalued in this spot against a solid Washington defense. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Seattle Seahawks +11
Bottom Line: Seattle is 0-4 SU & ATS on the road this season and they are being undervalued here because of it. While the Vikes are 4-0 at home this season, they are just 1-2-1 ATS in those games. Minnesota has a big division date with Chicago up next and it will be much more concerned about the Bears than the Seahawks today. While Seattle has been poor in defending the pass, consider that underdogs of 10.5 or more points allowing a completion percentage of 64% or more after allowing 8 or more yards per pass in their previous game are 24-7 ATS since 1983. Plus, the Vikings are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. Take the Seahawks.
JR TIPS
CHARGERS at BRONCOS
San Diego looks to win its fifth straight and move into sole possession of first place in the West on Sunday when it faces a slumping Denver team that will be without its starting quarterback. San Diego's last defeat was a 34-23 loss to the visiting Broncos on Oct. 19th but then went on to beat Kansas City, Oakland, the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles over the last month. Rivers has been hot of late as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday's 31-23 victory over the Eagles. The Broncos will have to play without starting quarterback Kyle Orton who left their last game at the end of the first half with a sprained left ankle after completing 11 of 18 passes for 193 yards and two TDs to Brandon Marshall. Backup Chris Simms will make his first appearance of the season after he was 3 of 13 for 13 yards with an interception in the second half against Washington. Denver looks to improve an offense that had just 36 second-half yards last Sunday and defending the run. Denver allowed 79.7 rushing yards per game during its 6-0 start but now opponents are averaging 157.3 yards on the ground versus the Broncos in the last three weeks and now they face the chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson who rushed for a season-high 96 yards and two TDs last week although Tomlinson carried 18 times for 70 yards last month versus Denver. In last month's victory in San Diego, there were many big plays as Eddie Royal for the Bronco's returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown in the same game while Chargers running back Darren Sproles returned a punt 77 yards for a score in that contest. The odds of having big plays over 70 yards for touchdowns again are slim in this game as Denver will rely on it's defense and keep the offensive conservative to eliminate mistakes. This is a divisional game in which these teams know each other very well as they will be playing for first place in their division today. The game went over the total in the first matchup due to unusual big plays. Look for a low scoring close game in this one.
TAKE UNDER 44.5
Tony Mathews
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Selection: Washington Redskins +11
As far as the betting market goes, Dallas is extremely overrated. Washington on the other hand is underrated, where the adequate Redskin defense that is always within a score has seemed to have gone unnoticed. In fact, the Redskin’s biggest loss this season has come by only 14 points.
The difference for the Redskins’ is that rather than working from 2-and-9 scenarios, Washington has been in manageable down and distance ranges. While the double digits make us interested in this play, there is also a high situational value here.
The Cowboys are playing on Thanksgiving and will certainly not show indifference to this big rival; however, it’s a short week and they won’t be putting up their best effort. In addition, Dallas does have two injuries to key starters and therefore the defense is not at 100%. Washington should be able to take advantage of these circumstances and continue their progression.
With this inflated point spread, we find a lot of value in Washington this weekend.
Take the Washington Redskins +11
Jimmy the Moose
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Buffalo Bills offense has really struggled this season and this week they fired their head coach after a horrible 3-6 start. The Bills are averaging 15.6 PPG while the D hasn't been very good either allowing 23.3 points per contest. Today the Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and he's looked better than Edwards has this season. The Bills have played over the total in 6 of their last 8 road games and in their last 7 as a road dog the over is 5-2. The over is 5-0 in Buffalo's last 5 games played in week 11.
Jacksonville is averaging 20.1 PPG and are allowing 24.4 PPG this season. The Jaguars have played over the total in 6 of their 9 games this season. At home the Jaguars are averaging 25.2 PPG and have played over the total in all 4 home games this season. The over is 8-2-2 in Jacksonville's last 12 games played in November. The over is 12-3-2 in the Jaguars last 17 games as a favorite. In their last 17 games following an ATS cover the over is a profitable 11-5-1.
The Bills will play with a lot more emotion in week 11 and looks for Fitzpatrick to move the offense down the field. The Jaguars haven't been very good against the pass and for the Bills to have any chance they'll have to throw the ball today. The Jaguars will continue to put up points vs. a Bills D that hasn't been very good this season. Look for an entertaining and high-scoring game in Jacksonville this afternoon.
Play the Bills/Jaguars Over
Jimmy Moore
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Pick: Indianapolis -1
I will take my chances with the undefeated Colts in basically a pick'em game against Baltimore especially with the Ravens sitting at 0-7 ATS coming off of a division game on Monday night. The Colts are dynamite on the road in non-division games and they have the undefeated motivation to keep them fully focused in this one.
Jimmy Thompson
Seattle vs. Minnesota
Pick: Vikings -10.5
The Seahawks have a bad combination and that is a bad defense and an offense that struggles to protect the QB. That is especially bad when you go to Minnesota to play Jared Allen and the Vikings. Adrian Peterson may have his biggest game of the year in this one and don't be surprised if Allen picks up at least 3 sacks and causes a couple of turnovers. There will likely be a Seneca Wallace sighting in this game!
Brian Graves
Indianapolis vs. Baltimore
Pick: Over 44
The Colts defense is really beat up and I don't know of any defense that can stop the Colts when they want to score. The Colts are really the only team that slows themselves down and that is with time consuming 15 play drives, when they try to go up top they score quickly and that will happen today. I like Flacco to rebound from a pretty poor effort last week in Cleveland and this game will be a tight high scoring game similar to last week's Colts/Pats game.