Jack Clayton
Bengals at Raiders
Pick: Raiders
A long road trip for the Bengals. The Raiders can compete at home, as when they had a stunning win (by blitzing all the time) over the Eagles, 13-9, and a Sunday's 16-10 close loss to the Chiefs. Play the Raiders.
Rob Homyak
Philadelphia at Chicago
Play: Philadelphia
Andy Reid is 8-3 ATS in his career on the road off a road loss, 4-0 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back looses. Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 5-2 in his career against Chicago. The Bears Lovie Smith is 2-1 against both Reid and Philadelphia as a head coach. Bears lost 4 of last 5 games. Cutler threw 11 INTs in 12 quarters. Last three teams Bears beat are Seahawks, Lions and the Browns.
Spartan
BAL / IND Under 44
Big game as the Colts are still sporting a perfect mark and the Ravens are fighting like hell to go after a playoff berth. Colts are off a sunday night epic battle with New England that was a heavily hyped and much anticipated game. They pulled out a stunning come from behind victory and now have the trip into Baltimore looming. The Ravens won an ugly, brutal game with Cleveland monday evening and got the cover. We were spot on with our predictions in both the Patriots and Ravens I might add. I was impressed with the effort and performance by Ray Lewis and his defense, as usual. Of course it was the woeful Browns so one cannot get too excited but the Ravens will always line up and get their licks in, they ALWAYS defend well. I really have some questions regarding the Ravens offense though. I feel this will be more of a lower scoring game as Baltimore will attempt to shorten the game vis the ground attack and keep Manning and company on the bench as much as possible. I feel at 44 points there is value here guys in the Under.
DUNKEL INDEX
Philadelphia at Chicago
The Eagles look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3)
Game 407-408: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.543; Detroit 120.318
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Under
Game 409-410: Buffalo at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.031; Jacksonville 129.807
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under
Game 411-412: Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.675; Kansas City 126.321
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over
Game 413-414: Indianapolis at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 141.294; Baltimore 142.210
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Over
Game 415-416: Atlanta at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.138; NY Giants 134.398
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Under
Game 417-418: San Francisco at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.529; Green Bay 135.589
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; Minnesota 137.314
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under
Game 421-422: Washington at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.798; Dallas 138.917
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over
Game 423-424: New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.560; Tampa Bay 131.674
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+11 1/2); Under
Game 425-426: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.391; St. Louis 123.721
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over
Game 427-428: NY Jets at New England
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 133.917; New England 145.321
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Under
Game 429-430: Cincinnati at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.104; Oakland 124.067
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10; 36
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10); Over
Game 431-432: San Diego at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.307; Denver 136.545
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 433-434: Philadelphia at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.920; Chicago 129.547
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Game 435-436: Tennessee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 134.417; Houston 136.049
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Houston by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5); Over
NBA
Orlando at Toronto
The Raptors look to take advantage of an Orlando team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Toronto is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3)
Game 501-502: Orlando at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 121.276; Toronto 121.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 209
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3); Over
Game 503-504: Boston at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.778; New York 111.158
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9; 194
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-9); Under
Game 505-506: Indiana at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.394; Charlotte 117.388
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2); Over
Game 507-508: New Orleans at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.422; Miami 121.399
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+8 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.118; Phoenix 126.143
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.064; LA Lakers 127.790
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10 1/2; 203 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 198
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-10); Over
NCAAB
DePaul vs. Tennessee
The Volunteers look to build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13 points or greater. Tennessee is the pick (-19 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Volunteers favored by 23. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-19 1/2)
Game 513-514: Valparaiso at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 54.364; Michigan State 76.787
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 18
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-18)
Game 515-516: AR-Little Rock at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 51.610; Creighton 64.208
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 14
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+14)
Game 517-518: San Jose State at UC-Riverside
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 51.936; UC-Riverside 53.298
Dunkel Line: UC-Riverside by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Riverside by 1
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (-1)
Game 519-520: Santa Clara at Pacific
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 50.622; Pacific 59.669
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 9
Vegas Line: Pacific by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-5 1/2)
Game 521-522: George Mason vs. Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 57.220; Indiana 53.104
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 4
Vegas Line: George Mason by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-3 1/2)
Game 523-524: Georgia Tech vs. Boston U
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 63.079; Boston U 50.624
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-10 1/2)
Game 525-526: Kansas State vs. Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 66.725; Dayton 64.153
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-1)
Game 527-528: Mississippi vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 66.720; Villanova 69.503
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 3
Vegas Line: Villanova by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+3 1/2)
Game 529-530: Penn State vs. Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 63.265; Davidson 56.258
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 7
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-1)
Game 531-532: Tulane vs. LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 53.149; LaSalle 55.864
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+5 1/2)
Game 533-534: NC Wilmington vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 47.674; South Florida 57.940
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 9
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-9)
Game 535-536: South Carolina vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 65.240; Miami (FL) 63.092
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 1
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-1)
Game 537-538: Howard vs. Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 38.770; Akron 54.752
Dunkel Line: Akron by 16
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 539-540: Georgia State vs. IUPUI
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 48.708; IUPUI 55.242
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 541-542: Drake vs. Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 52.039; Central Florida 58.383
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 543-544: Niagara vs. Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 59.713; Austin Peay 51.469
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 545-546: Auburn vs. North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 58.781; North Carolina State 64.010
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 547-548: Alcorn State vs. Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 26.783; Detroit 48.583
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 22
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 549-550: Robert Morris vs. Albany
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 49.855; Albany 47.166
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 551-552: Nicholls State vs. Louisiana Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 46.907; Louisiana Tech 56.348
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 553-554: Miami (OH) at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 52.378; New Mexico 70.150
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 18
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 555-556: James Madison vs. Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 49.247; Florida International 46.906
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 4
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+4)
Game 557-558: Murray State vs. NC Central
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 57.506; NC Central 31.075
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 24
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-24)
Game 559-560: DePaul vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 53.926; Tennessee 76.891
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 23
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-19 1/2)
Game 561-562: St. Joseph's vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 58.707; Purdue 71.345
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 14
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+14)
Game 563-564: The Citadel vs. MD-Eastern Shore
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 51.399; MD-Eastern Shore 33.037
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 565-566: Eastern Michigan vs. Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 50.926; Missouri State 55.982
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 567-568: SE Missouri State at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 37.495; Northern Illinois 49.839
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+15 1/2)
Game 569-570: Tennessee State at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 47.904; Northwestern 66.392
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 19
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+19)
Game 571-572: Chattanooga at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 49.045; Richmond 65.063
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 16
Vegas Line: Richmond by 15
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-15)
Game 573-574: Wofford at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 55.289; Bradley 62.326
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 7
Vegas Line: Bradley by 6
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-6)
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Canucks look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 4-12 in its last 16 meetings in Vancouver. Vancouver is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-125)
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.653; Atlanta 10.823
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Over
Game 3-4: Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.725; Vancouver 12.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-125); Over
CFL
BC at Montreal
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a BC team that is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 division finals games. Montreal is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-10)
Game 451-452: BC at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: BC 104.595; Montreal 123.306
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 18; 57
Vegas Line: Montreal by 10; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-10); Over
Game 453-454: Calgary at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 113.003; Saskatchewan 110.005
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 3; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+3); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Falcons at NY Giants
The Giants have had a week off to recover from a four game SU/ATS slide that was preceded by a 5-0 SU start. Can't see a ridiculous run by the visitor in this series of four straight wins and covers continuing, particularly because this Atlanta team is very sub-par outside of the Georgia Dome, losing four games by an average of over 12 PPG. This is the Falcons fourth road game in five week as well, so fatigue could be a factor.
Play on: NY Giants
Matt Fargo
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Washington Redskins +11
I think this line is simply too high fro a divisional matchup that is one of the bigger rivalries in football. The Redskins are coming off a much needed with last week at home against the Broncos and that momentum should carry right into this game. While the season has been closed shut by many, a win here and Washington is just two games back in the NFC East. Granted there are three teams in front but there is always the possibility and this team should rise to the occasion once again. Despite losing six of nine games this season, Washington has either outgained or been even statistically with its opponent in seven of those games including seven of the last eight. The two games that the Redskins were on the wrong end of the stat chart they were outgained by only 79 and 50 yards. The Cowboys are coming off that loss in Green Bay that has people scratching their heads once again. I was on the Packers so it was not a surprise to me and now the thinking is that it will be a big bounce back for the Cowboys. I don’t think it is that easy. Dallas struggled on offense and it was criticized for not running the ball much so we are going to see the Cowboys take it to the ground more. The Redskins know this and we may see more interior stunts and zone run blitzes from the Redskins to counter. Tony Romo had a pretty bad game last week and he has been known to bounce back but as inconsistent as he is, we could easily see another blowup. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis once again due to a concussion but Ladell Betts filled in very well last week and that came against a solid Broncos defense. He rushed for 114 yards on 26 carries (4.4 ypc) and overall Washington ran for 174 yards against Denver. Quarterback Jason Campbell takes a lot of heat but he has put together three straight solid performances with passer ratings of 91.6, 92.2 and 100.3. In three career starts against the Cowboys he has an 87.6 passer rating and the Redskins have won two of those three meetings, including last year in Dallas, 26-24 when they were underdogs of right around the same number. Washington will need to force turnovers as in Dallas’ three losses, it has nine turnovers while in the six wins, it has only five. That loss to the Packers last week by Dallas sets Washington up in a very good angle. Play against divisional home favorites of 10.5 or more points that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. It is very simple yet effective and has stood the course as it goes back 26 years. Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams that average 260 or more passing ypg in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points while under underdog has been a solid proposition in this series, covering 20 of the last 27 meetings. 3* Washington Redskins
LARRY NESS
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Arizona Cardinals -9
It's reunion time for Kurt Warner as he leads his defending NFC champs into St Louis, 10 years after he led the 1999 Rams to a Super Bowl title. Most everyone is familiar with the story. Warner was an NFL castoff who played overseas and even supported himself for a while by working in a supermarket. He got the starter's job in 1999 when Trent Green was lost for the year during the preseason. Warner earned MVP honors that season and led the franchise to its only Super Bowl win (was also the Super Bowl MVP). He was named MVP again in 2001 but the Rams fell short of a second championship, losing 20-17 to New England in the Super Bowl. When Warner lasted just one season with the Giants in 2004, his career looked all but over. He resurfaced in Arizona and then beat out Matt Leinart in Ken Whisenhunt's second season as coach. Warner had a MVP-like season in 2008 and the Cards made it all the way to the Super Bowl last season, suffering a last-minute loss to Pittsburgh. Warner is proving that he and the Cardinals weren't a fluke last year. The Cards are 6-3, including 4-0 on the road where they were 3-5 last season. Warner is completing 66.9% of his passes for almost 280 YPG with 18 TDs and 11 INTs (91.5 rating). Warner became the 29th player in NFL history to throw 200 TD passes last Sunday, as he finished with 340 yards passing and two scores to help Arizona rally from an early 14-0 deficit to defeat Seattle 31-20. The Rams enter 1-8 in 2009 and a pathetic 6-35 since the beginning of the 2007 season. Warner has been at his best on the road this season, with a league-leading 72.6 completion percentage, 10 TDs and only two of his 11 INTs. He's 3-0 as a visitor in St. Louis, throwing for an average of 272.7 YPG with six TDs and only one INT. This must feel like a 'broken record' for the Rams. This is the team's fifth home game in 2009. The Rams have hosted in order, the Packers, Vikings, Colts and Saints. In case you are unfamiliar, that means facing Rodgers, Favre, Peyton and Brees. Those are the top-four rated QBs in the NFL in 2009 with a combined TD-to-INT ratio of 73-24. It shouldn't come as any surprise then that the Rams have allowed 36.0 PPG in their four home games. The Rams are 6-14 ATS at home since the beginning of the 2007 season and the Cards have won their last four visits to St Louis, averaging a robust 35.0 PPG. In comparison, the Rams have scored a meager 100 points this year (11.1 PPG), scoring a total of just 11 TDs. One came on an INT return and another on a fake FG. Arizona's a sizable road favorite in this game but I'm laying the points, anyway.
Dave Price
1 Unit on New York Jets +11
The Patriots will be out to avenge an earlier season loss to the Jets but it won't be easy against a New York team that has reached desperation mode. While the Pats will no doubt want to avenge last week's heartbreaker to the Colts, it's tough to bounce back from such an emotionally and physically draining performance, especially when the media has constantly reminded them of it all week long. New England has constantly been overvalued in division play in recent years and that's no different today. That's why the Pats are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against the Jets. Overall, the Pats are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against the AFC East while New York is on a 5-1 ATS run on the road against AFC East rivals. Lastly, the Patriots are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the points.
EZWINNERS
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -3.5
Its time for the Lions to pick up their second win of the season. A reeling Cleveland team travels to Detroit on a short week following their Monday Night Football shutout loss to the Ravens. The Browns are in turmoil and the improving Lions should feast on this team. Cleveland's offense is nonexistent and the Lions defense has played very well at home. On the offensive side of the ball the improving health of quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Calvin Johnson should be good enough for a Detroit win and cover. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI/New Orleans under 194½
The Heat has dropped three in a row and four of five and in all of its losses over that stretch they’ve allowed 100 points or more in all of them. In fact, in all five of Miami’s losses this season they’ve allowed 100 points or more. It’s not rocket science to figure out that this team needs to focus on defense in order to win and that should be the strategy they employ here. The Hornets have won three in a row since that funk that saw them lose five of six and that includes a couple of nice wins over Phoenix and Atlanta. However, they were all at home and the Hornets are a miserable 1-6 on the road. Now New Orleans will play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs less than 24 hours after last night’s win. This is a 6:00 PM EST start and it’s highly unlikely the Hornets are going to be full of energy. They’re really going to look to keep this one at a crawl if they have any shot at all and the Heat will oblige. Miami looks like a decent play laying the eight points but this one should be all defense under the circumstances and it sure doesn’t hurt our chances that the Hornets best player, Chris Paul is still out. Play Miami/New Orleans under 194½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Bob Balfe
Bucs +10.5 over Saints
The Bucs are moving in the right direction and have shown that their offense is capable of playing with big named teams as they proved it in the last two weeks. Tampa has struggled on defense this year, but they have two good cover corners that can slow down the awesome passing attack of the Saints. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush which will hurt in the return game and obviously the running game. The Saints will be without both of the starting cornerbacks in this game which should lead Tampa to big plays. Drew Brees also lost his mother to a suicide death this week. Although they did not have a good relationship it still is his mom and it would affect anybody in preparation during the week and on the field. Possible upset? Its worth a small moneyline play. Take the Bucs.
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh -10 at KANSAS CITY
I’m 30-19-1 with my last 50 overall free plays.
Take the Steelers as the road chalk over the Chiefs.
This could have been a potential letdown spot for the champs after playing the Bengals last week for the division lead. But in losing that game I have full confidence that Mike Tomlin is going to have his team ready to play on the road today.
The other reason why I like the Steelers is Ben Roethlisberger. He is coming off a sub par game against Cincinnati and you’re going to see him bounce back in a big way today.
The Chiefs haven’t had much success on either side of the ball this year and now they’ll be without their top wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe, who has been suspended by the league for substance abuse.
Kansas City was having trouble moving the ball with its best receiver in the lineup, now they’ll have trouble getting past midfield against a Steelers defense that has allowed the fewest TDs in the league.
I’ll be honest folks. The only thing that kept this play from being a paid release for my clients was the Steelers special teams. They have been so bad that a TD on a return for the Chiefs could be the difference in the cover.
I’m going to roll the dice with Pittsburgh and side with them as they bounce back with the road win and cover.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
Indianapolis -1 at BALTIMORE
Improved to 12-5 with my last 17 FREE selections on Saturday when UConn went to South Bend, Ind. and scored the outright upset. I've got another easy winner for you here today as I go with the Colts at home to win and cover over the Ravens.
Maybe too much credit is being given to the Ravens and their defense with this line, because as I see it, the Colts are at least a touchdown better than Baltimore and will win this one by seven to 10 points.
Indianapolis hasn’t lost this season and they are looking for their 19th straight regular-season game, coming off the thrilling Sunday night win over the Patriots a week ago, winning 35-34 but coming up short as a two-point home chalk.
Colts’ QB Peyton Manning leads the NFL in completion percentage at almost 70 percent, plus passing yardage at 2,872 yards and TD passes at 20. He leads this offense that can seemingly score any time it wants or needs to. When watching this team play, you can see them get on these offense rolls when everything is clicking and it is impressive.
Today, Manning and the offense won’t have to worry about Baltimore LB Terrell Suggs who was injured by Cleveland QB Brady Quinn after an interception during last week’s 16-0 win in Cleveland.
Actually, Indianapolis has the top scoring defense at 15.8 points a game.
Baltimore is still in the top-10 defenses but it has looked very average this season. The Ravens had been just 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) in its previous five games and they weren’t looking real good.
Indy is on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 26-9-1 in non-divisional road games. Like how the offense can turn it up when they need to, so play the Colts.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Drew Gordon
Atlanta +7 at NY GIANTS
8-3 roll L11 Free Plays, including Army outright over North Texas 17-13! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Falcons/Giants match up.
I get it. Bettors are loving the Giants off their bye week, believing the extra preparation time will help them right their ship against the Falcons Sunday afternoon. Fact is, this is a flawed Giants team, and while they still may win SU, covering the bloated number is an entirely different story. Read on...
Again we find ourselves in a spot where bettors are overreacting to an injury. Yes, Michael Turner is a damn good running back, but he happens to play the MOST replaceable position on the field. Make no mistake, RB Jason Snelling won't knock your socks off with his ability, but he's more than capable of gashing a suspect Giants run defense. Although their overall yardage stats are solid, this Giants stop-unit is allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per carry over their L3 games, and that's just not going to cut it against this Falcons team. The fact the G-Men will be missing their 2nd leading tackler, Antonio Pierce, won't help their run defense either.
Also, I know full well the Falcons, and specifically Matt Ryan, have struggled on the road this season, but let's not get carried away. Losses at the Patriots, at the Cowboys, and at the Saints (they covered) are nothing to be ashamed of. However, their loss at Carolina was embarrasing, and that's EXACTLY why I believe they'll come out sharp today. Ryan is too good a quarterback not to get back on track.
Finally, its no secret that both defenses are giving up a lot of point recently, and that's a problem for a team trying to cover a touchdown spread. You see, I saw some value with the Giants when the number FIRST came out under a TD, but now the value swings the other way. In the end, how many times do the Giants have to lose before you understand they are nothing but an average team this season? Falcons grab the cash Sunday!
Take Atlanta plus the points over the NY Giants in this NFL match up.
2♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Seattle +10' at MINNESOTA
No doubt Brett Favre has transformed Minnesota into a serious NFC champion contender.
But the Vikings' fancy 8-1 record isn't as glittery as it may seem. The Vikings were lucky to beat the 49ers and Ravens at home. It took a desperation miracle touchdown pass at the end by Favre to beat the 49ers and a missed field goal by the Ravens at the gun for Minnesota to escape with that victory. Three of the Vikings' other wins have come against the Browns and Lions twice.
Minnesota is a good, but not great team. And teams that aren't great can't get away with laying double-digits in the NFL against decent opponents.
The Vikings are 1-11-1 against the spread the past 13 times they've been a favorite of 10 1/2 or more points. If you discount their game against the Lions, the Vikings have won their other three home contests by a combined 12 points for an average victory margin of four points.
The Seahawks are throwing as much as possible, mostly short routes. That's the way to attack a Vikings defense that is stout against the run but has a vulnerable secondary. Star cornerback Antoine Winfield remains sidelined with a foot injury. The Vikings are trying to cover up his spot with a committee of below average cornerbacks. Two of these players, Karl Paymah (ankle) and Benny Sapp (groin), are hurt.
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 893 yards in his last three games. He's averaged 6.4, 6.5 and 6.1 yards per pass during this span. He's a savvy, experienced veteran who won't be rattled by the loud dome crowd. Seattle's offensive line is healthier, too.
Hasselbeck can keep the chains moving. The Seahawks have their best runner, Justin Forsett, as their main runner following an injury to Julius Jones and the waiving of Edgerin James.
3♦ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS