Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 23

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

LA Clippers at Memphis
The Grizzlies host the Clippers (7-4 SU) tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against teams with a winning SU record. Memphis is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3)

Game 501-502: Portland at Boston (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.991; Boston 118.065
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Charlotte at Miami (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.092; Miami 118.568
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: LA Clippers at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.205; Memphis 128.546
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 198
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 507-508: Golden State at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.557; Oklahoma City 117.028
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 4 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 8 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+8 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Denver at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 122.275; LA Lakers 117.029
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 2 1/2; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2); Over

NHL

Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks head to Vancouver tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in their last 4 games versus Western Conference opponents. Chicago is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-115)

Game 1-2: St. Louis at Winnipeg (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.209; Winnipeg 11.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+105); Over

Game 3-4: Montreal at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.224; NY Rangers 12.617
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Over

Game 5-6: Arizona at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 11.808; Anaheim 10.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-205); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+175); Under

Game 7-8: Chicago at Vancouver (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.662; Vancouver 11.091
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-115); Under

CFL

Edmonton at Calgary
The Eskimos head to Calgary for the Division Finals and come into the contest with an 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 road games. Edmonton is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7)

Game 291-292: Montreal at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 108.225; Hamilton 119.208
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 11; 43
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3); Under

Game 293-294: Edmonton at Calgary (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 113.523; Calgary 112.725
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7); Over

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Northern Arizona at Mississippi
The Rebels host Northern Arizona tonight following a 69-38 win over Southern University and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games after a SU win of more than 20 points in the previous game. Mississippi is the pick (-15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rebels favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-15 1/2).

Game 511-512: South Florida at NC State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 52.726; NC State 70.814
Dunkel Line: NC State by 18
Vegas Line: NC State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-14 1/2)

Game 513-514: Florida Atlantic at Georgia (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 48.454; Georgia 66.852
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-14 1/2)

Game 515-516: Pacific at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 52.746; Washington 67.258
Dunkel Line: Washington by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 12
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-12)

Game 517-518: UC-Irvine at St. Mary's (CA) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 59.279; St. Mary's (CA) 66.561
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-4)

Game 519-520: Long Beach State at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 56.215; UCLA 76.786
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 11
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-11)

Game 521-522: College of Charleston vs. George Mason (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 53.414; George Mason 50.418
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 523-524: New Mexico vs. Texas A&M (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 64.697; Texas A&M 62.452
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+4 1/2)

Game 525-526: Boston College vs. Dayton (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 59.935; Dayton 62.734
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 3
Vegas Line: Dayton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5 1/2)

Game 527-528: West Virginia vs. Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 69.071; Connecticut 70.853
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+4 1/2)

Game 541-542: Cornell vs. Drexel (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 46.272; Drexel 48.641
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 4
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+4)

Game 543-544: USC vs. Penn State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 52.675; Penn State 57.005
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (+6 1/2)

Game 545-546: Akron vs. South Carolina (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 57.176; South Carolina 60.587
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+5 1/2)

Game 547-548: Charlotte vs. Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 57.892; Miami (FL) 68.791
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 11
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-8 1/2)

Game 569-570: Gardner-Webb vs. Seton Hall (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 52.424; Seton Hall 64.989
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-6 1/2)

Game 571-572: Illinois State vs. Old Dominion (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 57.263; Old Dominion 58.565
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 3
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+3)

Game 573-574: Eastern Illinois at Cincinnati (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.619; Cincinnati 64.132
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+18 1/2)

Game 575-576: Montana State at Kentucky (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 40.537; Kentucky 81.519
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 41
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-37 1/2)

Game 577-578: Iona at North Texas (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.083; North Texas 50.136
Dunkel Line: Iona by 9
Vegas Line: Iona by by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-6 1/2)

Game 579-580: Tennessee State at Vanderbilt (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 43.244; Vanderbilt 62.810
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 18
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-18)

Game 581-582: Northern Arizona at Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 47.914; Mississippi 65.897
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 18
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-15 1/2)

Game 583-584: Mercer at Colorado State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 50.940; Colorado State 67.818
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 17
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-14)

Game 591-592: North Carolina Central at Creighton (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 58.107; Creighton 71.715
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-10 1/2)

Game 593-594: Sacred Heart at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 45.204; Ohio State 74.435
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 29
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-26 1/2)

Ssleepyj

Minnesota +11

I like this line here at 5 dimes...This is a let down spot spot here with GB after a couple big wins. Jump on the road against a division dog in Minn. Minn off a loss..Give me the point here.. Minn will hang around and shock all the packer backers..i would be happy with 8.5 and this number went on the rise from the jump. I think the sharp money and public money came in on GB. I know think the number +10 and above has value.

SPORTS WAGERS

Montreal +3½ over HAMILTON

This game goes on Sunday and although we’re not 100% sure which way this line will move, if any, we like the +3½ -105 right now so we’ll play it today. One thing we know for sure is that we’re getting the better team plus points on what is projected to be a cold and very windy day in Hamilton. You may read a lot about how the Ti-Cats haven’t lost at their new park in six tries but we put no weight on that whatsoever because none of the wins were impressive and most of them were a direct result of good luck. One win was against Toronto, 13-12 in a game the Ti-Cats had no business winning. Another was a 2-point win over the same B.C. team that Montreal beat 50-17 in a last week’s playoff game. In fact, three of Hamilton’s six wins in its new park came by two points or less and another was a 16-6 victory over the Redblacks. The Tiger-Cats have had nothing but trouble in the red zone the entire year and if you can’t finish drives in this league, doom looms largely. Hamilton has been outgained by over 91 yards or more in four of its past seven games and the week off to prepare gives them no advantage whatsoever.

The Alouettes are primed to win again this week. They are the most balanced team in the league with a defense that is playing well above the rest of the league. In fact, the Als have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or less and five of those to 15 or less. They’ve also won seven of their past eight and now the offense is performing at a high level as well. The Alouettes will be boosted by a playoff win already and their best offensive display of the season against B.C. They scored six offensive touchdowns, including a pair of TD passes by Jonathan Crompton. The Als are superior in all phases of the game; offense, defense and special teams and watching them you get a sense that they’re not even close to being satisfied with just one playoff win and calling it a year. We’re calling the upset but under lousy weather conditions we’re more than happy taking back these significant points.

Teddy Covers

Lions / Patriots Under 48

On the one hand, the Patriots are as hot as any team in the NFL right now, reeling off six straight wins since that Monday Night Football debacle at Kansas City, while going 5-1 ATS in the process. That includes impressive blowouts over the likes of Denver, Indy and Cincinnati -- the three teams that would win the other three AFC Divisions if the season ended today. The Pats currently are a full game better than any team in the conference, with tiebreaker wins against all of them. As of now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro.

But on the other hand, the betting markets are telling us clearly that they don't believe that the Patriots are a truly elite ballclub. This line opened in the -6.5 range, as opposed to at -7, and every time it has inched above -7 this week, wiseguy $$ has come in on Detroit, driving the pointspread back down to -7. The Pats are a clear 'public' choice on Sunday, but there is no shortage of sharp action on the Lions plus the points.

What are the wiseguys seeing that the public is not? Well, the public loves good offense more than good defense, and Bill Belichick's ability to uniquely gameplan for each opponent has led to a run of seven consecutive New England Overs. The Pats have hung 37+ five times in their last six ballgames, with point totals of 51, 43 and 42 in their last three ballgames, coming close to eclipsing those Overs by themselves.

Detroit's defense is ALOT better than Indy's defense, particularly at the line of scrimmage. Last week, New England rushes for 244 yards on national TV, turning unknown RB Jonas Gray into a four TD superstar in the course of a single evening. For much of the game, the Patriots utilized six offensive linemen, simply pushing around the Colts front seven on defense. That's not likely to happen against the Lions stout front, a unit that leads the NFL in both fewest rushing yards allowed per game and per attempt. The onus here will be on Tom Brady's ability to throw the football against Detroit's fierce pass rush.

The Lions offense hasn't exactly lit the world on fire this season, a consistently underperforming unit. The last time Detroit scored more than 24 points in a ballgame AND the last time everyone cashed an Over ticket at the closing number (some won, some lost and some pushed betting the Over in their game against New Orleans) came all the way back in Week 1, when they blew out the Giants on national TV on Monday Night Football. The Pats high scoring offense has gotten plenty of headlines, but Detroit's stellar defensive front and extended run of Unders hasn't garnered much publicity at all.

The Lions managed only a pair of field goals last week in Arizona. Calvin Johnson is a shell of himself these days, with less than 200 receiving yards and only a single TD since Week 3! Leading rushers Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are both averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. Matthew Stafford has looked jumpy and skittish in the pocket for extended stretches. Look for defense to rule the day in Foxboro on Sunday. Take the Under.

Strike Point Sports

Seattle (-6.5) over Arizona

In the NFL, this line says it all. Arizona is 9-1, and yet they are getting 6.5-points from the Seahawks. We all know that Seattle has some issues going on internally, but this is where they come together as a team and punch the Cardinals in the proverbial mouth. Drew Stanton has proven that he is a viable option at QB, but playing in Seattle is a different beast all together. This organization and their fan base know that this is as much of a must-win situation as they have faced all year. Arizona is starting to pull away in this division, and with this, and one more opportunity to play the Cards, Seattle has to take advantage of both games. The Seahawks won't let this game slip through their fingers. There is also a bit of revenge circulating around this contest. Arizona went in to Seattle last season and won. The Seahawks remember this, and they will not let it happen again. Seattle's running game has issues, mentally, and financially. All the backs are going to play with everything they have, either to show a different organization that they can fit in their scheme (Lynch) or that they can be the bell cow next season (Michael). With all the issues, and the drama facing the Seahawks, you would think that Vegas would lower this line, but no, and for good reason. Seattle wins this game by double-figures. Lay the points and take the home team.

Allen Eastman

San Francisco (-9) over Washington

Washington is a mess right now. They are arguing with one another, and the rookie coach is having big trouble in the locker room. But this team isn’t very good, either. They were blown out by 20 points at home against a bad Tampa Bay team last week. I don’t think they are going to be competitive on the road against a strong San Francisco team. The 49ers have back-to-back road wins over the Saints and Giants, and they are happy to be home. San Fran has gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. They have injury problems, but the next man up is stepping up for them. This is a solid locker room that has been to three straight NFC Title games. They are the opposite of the Redskins in that they have experience and a strong group of leaders. The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 3-8 ATS on the road. The 49ers should dominate this one.

Mike Davis

Denver (-7) over Miami

Miami has been very good as of late, but they are stepping into a hornet's nest this Sunday in Denver. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are playing their first home game in 4 weeks, and they are coming off of their worst performance of the season. The Broncos only mustered 7 points in an embarrassing loss to the Rams last week. I can assure you Manning and the Broncos will play much better this week offensively. Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas were banged up last week, and their availability is unknown at this time. Having said that, Caldwell and Tamme are capable fill-ins if the starters can't go. Miami will be traveling across country after a last-minute loss in Detroit last week. This is a very tough spot for the Dolphins. The weather won't exactly be the kind of weather they see on "South Beach," and the change in elevation is significant as well. Denver wins this one by at least 10 points.

Brady Kannon

Rams / Chargers Under 43.5

The Chargers are coming off of a game in which they only scored 13-points and held their opponent to just 6.. a game that saw 18-total punts. The Rams are coming off of a win over The Denver Broncos in which they held Denver to just 7-points.

St. Louis is near the very bottom of the league, averaging just 18.5 points per game while San Diego rates in the bottom half of the league, tallying just 21.5 points per game. After racking up a decent amount of points early in the season, The Chargers have scored 20, 21, 0, and 13-points in their last 4-games. The Rams, over their last 4-games, have scored; 7, 13, 14, and 22. Between the two teams, that's an average of less than 14-points scored per team per game.

Both teams have good defenses. San Diego's strength is against the pass. Not only this but I don't see Shaun Hill lighting up any scoreboard against just about any defense - so The Rams will likely look to find success on the ground and we know that a commitment to the run keeps the clock ticking and speeds up a game. The Rams strength is with a pass rush that is now finding its stride and with the immobile Phillip Rivers now being a little banged up to boot, I expect some sacks to happen today. By the same token, in order for The Chargers to keep that aggressive pass rush at bay, they will need to run the ball with Matthews and Oliver - again, keeping the clock ticking and making this a shorter game.

Both teams have good special teams so I do not expect there to be terrific field position for either club on a regular basis. In the Red Zone, The Rams are one of the league's worst while San Diego is very average.

I see this as a 20-17, 23-16 type of game.

AC Dinero

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -11

Tennessee travels out of conference off a tough home loss Monday night to Pittsburgh. Its hard not to see a flat spot here. They are starting a rookie QB who should see some blitzes on this one. The Eagles were embarrassed at Green Bay on TV last weekend, and should come out a blazing against the Titans at home. Surprisingly, these teams match up statistically. The one big discrepency: Philly is converting 41% on 3rd down where the Titans are only converting at 30%. This is a bad spot for the Titans and should be on the wrong side of a 2 TD game.

SPORTS WAGERS

HOUSTON -1½ over Cincinnati

Remember two weeks ago when Andy Dalton looked like a bad version of Geno Smith in Cleveland? Everybody (including us) jumped off that bandwagon quickly. Cinci then goes into New Orleans and puts a beating on the Saints that was New Orleans worst home defeat in 10 years. The Bengals had a point to prove and did so with flying colors. Good for them but we’re not ready to jump back on their wagon. These Bengals have varied from looking great in the first three weeks to being shut out by the Colts, getting destroyed by New England and held to just three points by the Browns. So which version should we expect this week? Well, a close look reveals that Dalton struggles against good defenses and Houston’s “D” is among the best. Cinci is feeling a lot more complacent this week, as they have received nothing but praise from local fans and media after that response in New Orleans last week. Dalton has thrived against a lot of weak defenses this year that include Tennessee, Atlanta, Carolina, Jacksonville and New Orleans. He struggles mightily against a good defense and he struggles even more on the road against good defenses.

In terms of the playoffs, the Texans are right there. They sit just a game back of the Colts and they have two winnable games on deck against Tennessee and Jacksonville before they play the Colts. The Texans are gaining steam. They’ve won two of three and put a serious beating on the Brownies last week in Cleveland. Ryan Mallett's first NFL start went well enough with him completing 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. And he was never sacked but that was in part because the Texans ran the ball 49 times. Arian Foster was held out last week because of a groin injury but early word has him returning. That may change but for now the projections will expect a healthy Foster. In his place Alfred Blue has been outstanding and he comes off 36 rushes for 156 yards in Cleveland. That bodes well here for both Mallett and the Texans running game because Cinci hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground besides New Orleans last week. It’s also worth noting that Dalton has thrown 4 picks in Houston in his last two games here and is now 0-3 against Houston in his career. That’s because Houston employs a good defense and they’ll be ready to put more heat on Dalton again. Cinci is what is has been: a talented and inconsistent team whose whole never quite lives up to the sum of its parts. Once again we expect to see the poor version of the Bengals this week.

Tampa Bay +6 over CHICAGO

We’re playing the Buccaneers for a variety of reasons and we’ll start with the fact that the price on the Bears this week is inflated because they defeated the Vikings last week. Think about it for a moment. Chicago closes as a 1½-point choice last week and now they’re a 6-point choice over Tampa Bay? It’s a bit ludicrous because Tampa and Minnesota are comparable but this line says otherwise. From our standpoint, there’s no comparison between the two and it’s not in the Vikes favor. Nevertheless, the Bear defeated Minnesota and now the market has responded by overpricing them. That win was Chicago’s first at home this year and first win at Soldier Field in almost a full year. One week against a defense that was the field the entire game doesn’t fix a Bears offense that was spiraling out of control. Jay Cutler has committed a league-high 15 turnovers, which have led to 65 points by opponents. It figures to be cold and windy in Chicago this weekend (projected forecast is winds between 15 and 20 mph and temperatures in the mid-40s) and that can’t be good for Cutler. When the Bears get off to a low start, which they almost always do (they’ve been outscored 104-21 in the first quarter this year), they practically mail it in. This team quits fast. Furthermore, the Bears play in Detroit this coming Thursday on U.S. Thanksgiving so there’s that too. The reasons for fading the Bears don’t end there however.

Lovie Smith returns to Soldier Field for the first time since being fired as Bears head coach after the 2012 season. The Bucs’ starting quarterback, Josh McCown also returns to Chicago after playing for them last year. Incidentally, after Cutler was injured, McCown played damn well in relief. No Smith gets to return to where he had so much success before being dismissed. This situation for Smith is not a unique one either (see Andy Reid in Philadelphia in 2013 and John Fox in Carolina in 2012). Reid’s Chiefs, for the record, knocked off the Eagles 26-16 in Philadelphia, with Fox’s Broncos rolling to a 36-14 win in Charlotte. The Buccaneers are coming off a pretty sweet performance in Washington last week where they put the ‘Skins away rather easily. Tampa Bay is much more talented than their record indicates and all the reports say that the atmosphere is a lot better than you would expect from a 2-8 team. Let’s not ignore that the Bucs are only two games behind Atlanta and New Orleans in the NFC South. If the Bucs can put that talent together down the stretch, they could end up being a playoff team. We get the team that is in a much better frame of mind that’s highly motivated and that is grossly underpriced. That’s a bet we’ll make almost every time and we make no exception here.

Mike O'Connor

Tampa Bay (+6) 23 CHICAGO 27

Former head coach Lovie Smith and former backup quarterback Josh McCown return to their former stomping grounds as they head to Chicago to take on the Bears this week. I don’t believe that there is any particular advantage to either side as both coaches know the opposing quarterback well and both quarterbacks have a detailed knowledge of the opposing defense. Each team has a poor pass defense which may lend itself to a higher scoring contest if the weather isn’t a factor, which appears will be the case. The Bucs passing offense finally started to gel the past couple of weeks with McCown back at quarterback and connecting on some deep balls to rookie Mike Evans. They’ll have their opportunities this week against a Chicago pass defense that is allowing 256 yards at 7.4 yps to teams that gain 234 yards at 6.3 yps on average. The same hold true for the Bears passing offense as they’ll get their shots against a Tampa pass defense that allows a nearly equally bad 269 yards at 7.2 yps.

I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model predicts a 7 point Chicago win. Tampa Bay has improved recently as time has allowed new players to adjust to new schemes and as I don’t fully trust the Bears, I’ll lean slightly with Tampa plus the points.

Tennessee (+11) 20 PHILADELPHIA 26

The Titans put forth a good effort on Monday night against Pittsburgh and actually led 24-13 in the fourth quarter before allowing the Steelers to pound their way back into it behind a strong ground attack in an eventual 24-27 loss. After an early pick six that put the Steelers up 10-0, Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger put together a solid outing and is gaining some support for his leadership and his ability to stand and deliver in the pocket. Meanwhile, the Eagles were beaten soundly by a hot Packers team that just couldn’t be stopped, passing the ball for 365 yards at 9.4 yps and rushing it for 113 yards at 5.1 ypr. Eagles backup Mark Sanchez didn’t play well under pressure as some of the turnover issues that have plagued him throughout his career were on full display. He was directly responsible for 14 Packers points via a pick-six to Julius Peppers and a botched snap that was returned for a score by Casey Hayward.

Sanchez could be under pressure in this game as well as last week the Titans pass rush came alive, sacking Roethlisberger five times and pressuring him consistently. However, I’m sure that the Eagles will attempt to resurrect their rush game against a Tennessee rush defense that is allowing 144 yards at 4.6 ypr and was gashed last week by the Steelers (208 yards at 6.1 ypr). The Titans will focus on stopping the run and making Sanchez beat them, and if he is under pressure at all, I expect the Titans to benefit from his poor decision making under fire. Simply put, this is too many points for a Sanchez led team to lay and I expect the Titans to come after him with some success. Tennessee benefits from a negative 19-50 situation that plays against big favorites with poor defenses while also qualifying in a 72-25-1 situation as well as a 50-10 subset of their own. However, Philly qualifies in a good 106-56-4 statistical match-up situation that is 7-1 this season and that is enough to keep me off the Titans. Strong lean to Tennessee plus the points.

NEW ENGLAND (-7) 30 Detroit 18

The Lions offense has been a problem this season and if we take out their opening night 35-14 win against the Giants, they are averaging just 17 points per game. It was understandable without WR Calvin Johnson when he was out of action or playing in a hobbled state for five games but it’s not gotten much better with him in the lineup the past several weeks as the Lions have scored just 26 points the past two weeks combined. In the Lions 6-14 loss last week the Arizona defense really shut down the Detroit offense, holding them to 262 total yards at 4.9 yppl while sacking Stafford four times and intercepting him once. The Lions defense is a different story as they have played very well, holding opponents to just 290 total yards at 4.9 yppl. They feature a rush defense that only allows 69 yards at 3.1 ypr to teams that average 108 yards at 4.2 ypr. Their pass defense has been good, but can be vulnerable and just allowed Cardinals backup Drew Stanton to pass for 306 yards at 9.6 yps last week. I don’t believe the Lions defense will be able to contain a potent Patriots offense that has been lighting it up recently and can game-plan a match-up advantage better than anyone.

It took Gronk about the first five games to get in the swing of things but since then he has been unstoppable and the Patriots offense has taken it to another level as a result. In fact, since the Patriots Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, they have been dominant and have gotten progressively better each week. In the six games since, they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, winning by an average score of 40.5- 21.3. The past two weeks, they beat the cream of the crop in the AFC, the Broncos and the Colts, easily. New England is the much better team in this game and I’m not sure how the Lions offense is going to keep up. With Brady, New England is 45-22-4 at home with a line between 0 and -10. They are 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS in that situation off a SU and ATS win and the opponent off a SU and ATS loss, winning by an average score of 30-14, which is what we have in this game. It’s amazing to me the almost robotic consistency with which New England plays. My model predicts a 9.2 point Patriots win and as a result I like the Patriots.

Green Bay (-9.5) 30 MINNESOTA 16

The Packers have been money in the bank the past seven weeks, going 6-1 SU and ATS and winning by an average score of 39-21. They have put up over 50 points in each of their last two games in big wins over the Bears and the Eagles and appear to be virtually unstoppable on offense. They have had an opportunistic defense and just don’t turn the ball over on offense, resulting in their league leading +14 turnover differential. They have a number of major advantages in this game against the Vikings, who will be hard pressed offensively to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and one of the most prolific passing offenses in the history of the game. The stats are impressive as Rodgers has thrown for an unbelievable 28 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions this season and his career 1.7% interception rate is a testament to his accuracy and consistency. On the other side, the Vikings have Teddy Bridgewater. While Bridgewater has been serviceable, he still has a long way to go and will have his hands full against a Packers defense that has both a pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary that has produced 14 interceptions (#3 in the league), returning three for touchdowns.

The two things that the Vikings can hang their hats on in this game are their running game and their defense. Minnesota has rushed for an average of 118 yards at 4.8 ypr against teams that allow 111 yards at 4.2 ypr and that statistic has only gotten better since RB Jerick McKinnon has assumed most of the work. They’ll face a Packers rush defense that hasn’t been good in allowing 141 yards at 4.7 ypr to teams that allow 119 yards at 4.5 ypr on average. If Minnesota can establish their ground game and eat clock, this game could stay within the large number. In addition, their defense has improved progressively this season, but is still vulnerable and I don’t see them being able to slow down a Packers offense that is operating at another level.

The Vikings benefit from a negative 110-198-8 rushing match-up situation that plays against the Packers but my model favors Green Bay in this game by 16.5 points. Lean to the Packers.

Cincinnati (+2) 22 HOUSTON 23

Cincinnati has been a difficult team to get a handle on this season with outstanding play followed by terrible performances. It was the former last week as they went down to New Orleans and beat the Saints as a 7 point dog in a game where they dominated. Meanwhile, the Texans beat the Browns in Cleveland 23-7 as quarterback Ryan Mallet made his first start and played well. Both teams should be able to run the ball well as they both possess above average rush offenses and will be facing below average rush defenses. However, the Bengals pass offense should enjoy some success against a Texans pass defense that has been below average and I haven’t seen enough from Ryan Mallet to say that he will have success against a good Cincinnati pass defense that allows 6.2 yps to teams that average 6.7 yps.

I don’t have any situations in play on this game and my model favors the Texans by -1.1 points so this game is really a toss up to me. I’ll lean just slightly to Cincinnati.

Jacksonville (+14) 22 INDIANAPOLIS 30

Jacksonville had last week off after losing to the Cowboys in London two weeks ago 17-31. They hope that the bye week is as important to their team as it was last year when they used it as a springboard for winning three of their next four post break. I think that they’ll come prepared and ready to play well versus the Colts as they attempt to avenge an earlier 17-44 loss in Week 3. The Jaguars aren’t as bad as they appear from an adjusted yppl perspective, and should win on the ground in this contest. Since RB Dennard Robinson has taken a greater share of the running back duties, the Jags rushing offense has improved. Since the Cleveland game in Week 7, the Jaguars are averaging 141 yards rushing at 5.0 ypr and could burn clock and move the ball against a Colts rush defense that just got gashed by the Patriots last week for 248 yards at 6.0 ypr. So far this season, Indy is allowing 4.8 ypr against teams that gain 4.3 ypr and could be susceptible versus an improved Jaguars ground attack. What might make that attack even better is the return of tight end Marcedes Lewis from a high ankle sprain this week. Lewis is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league and will provide another good pass catching option for quarterback Blake Bortles.

While the Colts passing offense will be difficult to corral, they won’t have much of a running game after losing top RB Ahmad Bradshaw last week versus the Patriots. Trent Richardson has not played well, gaining just 3.4 ypr this season to go along with a career 3.3 ypr average. Without much of a running game, the Colts become one dimensional and that could create some opportunities for the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville benefits from a negative 19-50 situation that plays against big favorites with bad defenses while also qualifying in a 43-19-1 situation that plays on division dogs with rest. Indy has had some slight positive luck benefit this year in regards to fumbles while the Jaguars have not and as a result Jacksonville qualifies in a 498-409-15 turnover situation. The thing holding me back here is that Andrew Luck is 12-1 SU and ATS after a loss and the Colts have owned Jacksonville, winning all three games SU and ATS in the Gus Bradley era by an average score of 10-37. I’ll pass but it’s a strong lean to Jacksonville plus the large number.

SAN DIEGO (-5) 27 St. Louis 19

The Rams have faced a tough schedule the past five weeks and have fared well in beating the Seahawks, the 49ers and the Broncos while losing away games to the Chiefs and the Cardinals. Their defense has really picked it up recently after spending the early part of the season adapting to defensive coordinator Greg Williams schemes and last week held the high powered Broncos offense to just 7 points in their 22-7 victory. Their strong defensive line has a pretty good matchup against a subpar Chargers offensive line and if they can get some pressure on Philip Rivers, they will have a good chance of slowing down a San Diego offense that is predicated on passing the ball. On the other side, the Rams switched back to Shaun Hill at quarterback last week and he played better than I expected, passing for 206 yards at 6.4 yps without turning the ball over. He might have a more difficult time this week on the road against a Chargers defense that welcomed the return of edge rushers Melvin Ingram, Jeremiah Attaochu, and inside linebacker Manti Te'o last week against the Raiders, holding them to just 233 total yards at 4.3 yppl in their 13-6 win.

The Rams have zig-zagged their way through wins and losses the past six weeks, alternating impressive wins with blowout losses. If that pattern holds true, this is the Rams blowout loss week. I believe that it will hold true, and my model predicts a 10.2 point Chargers victory. I don’t have any situations in play in this game but based on the math, I like the Chargers to cover.

Arizona (+7) 18 SEATTLE 21

The Cardinals just keep rolling along and last week’s 14-6 home win against the Lions was another impressive outing. Defensively, they played well in holding Detroit to 262 yards at 4.9 yppl and just 6 points. If you take out the Broncos game where they allowed 41 points, the Cardinals are only allowing 15 points per game this season and have amazingly allowed 20 or less points in every other game this season. I have a hard time believing the Seahawks will be able to move the ball effectively in this game as the Cardinals pass defense has gotten progressively better and they have a run defense that is only allowing 79 yards at 3.5 ypr to teams that gain 102 yards at 4.0 ypr on average. If Arizona can contain the run, as I believe they will be able to, the Seahawks will have a hard time moving the ball consistently in this game. Part of that is due to the fact that Seattle lost their best offensive lineman in center Max Unger last week against the Chiefs and when he departed, there was a noticeable difference in their running game, particularly in short yardage situations. He won’t play this game and his loss is a big one for the Seattle offensive line, particularly against the aggressive Arizona defense.

On the other side, Drew Stanton has played reasonably well so far this season with a 5-2 TD/INT ratio but he has only completed 53.6% of his passes and may have a hobbled Larry Fitzgerald to throw to this week. In addition, the Cardinals have been well below average rushing the ball this season (averaging 82 yards at 3.3 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.2 ypr) and will face a Seattle rush defense that has played well overall, but were gashed last week by the Chiefs for 191 yards at 6.8 ypr.

Seattle qualifies in a good 217-106-14 fundamental rushing situation but my model only favors them in this game by 3.7 points. This looks like too many points to lay in what should be a low scoring game and despite the situation I’ll lean slightly with Arizona plus the points.

Washington (+9) 19 SAN FRANCISCO 22

According to the media, the walls are caving in on the Redskins and they are a team in complete disarray. It seems like every time I turn on the TV or listen to the radio this week there is another story about how Robert Griffin is a failure and how head coach Gruden could be one and done after this season. After their embarrassing 7-27 home loss as a big favorite off their bye last week to Tampa Bay, I can understand why. They were terrible in that game as Griffin was sacked six times, they were -2 in turnovers and they allowed a bad Buc passing offense to put up 281 yards at 11.2 yps. Meanwhile, the 49ers are back on the media’s hot list with two consecutive road wins at New Orleans and in New Jersey against the Giants. In reality, they could have easily lost the Saints game and last week barely escaped with a 16-10 victory despite being +3 in turnovers. The 49ers have displayed the ability, as most teams do, to play up or down to the level of competition they are facing depending on the situation. San Francisco can’t be overly excited about facing a 3-7 Redskins team after two tough road victories and with a huge showdown against division rival Seattle in primetime on Thanksgiving night on deck this week.

The reality is that the Redskins aren’t as bad as they seem right now, and the 49ers are in a flat spot. This is too many points to give a team that has ability on offense and will be highly motivated to perform well after hearing all about how terrible they are this week. That premise sets the Redskins up in a good 116-65-6 situation that plays on certain dogs off a loss as a favorite last week. I can’t play on the Redskins here, however, with the knowledge that the left side of their line will likely be out (Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams will be replaced by rookie Morgan Moses who will be making his first career start and matched up against linebacker Aldon Smith who averages about a sack per game in his career). Strong lean to the Redskins plus the points.

DENVER (-6.5) 30 Miami 18

The Dolphins are getting a lot of love right now and deservedly so as they rate highly in a number of key metrics and success indicators. I just don’t see them matching up well with the Broncos in this game if Denver has a fully functional WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE Julius Thomas ready to go. Miami has a very good defense that has allowed just 301 yards at 4.7 yppl to teams that gain 335 yards at 5.4 yppl on average with above average results against both the run and the pass. I have them rated just ahead of the Broncos in overall defense as Denver has been very good as well against both the run and the pass (allowing 314 yards at 4.7 yppl to teams that average 344 yards at 5.4 yppl). Miami’s strength has been running the ball on offense but they’ll face an excellent Denver run defense that is allowing 71 rushing yards at 3.2 ypr to teams that gain 113 yards at 4.3 ypr on average and will be highly motivated to play well after losing in St. Louis last week as a big favorite and allowing the Rams to chew up 131 rushing yards at 4.0 ypr. The Dolphins offense took a hit two weeks ago in losing their best offensive lineman and blindside protector Brandon Albert and as a result gave up 5 sacks last week in their Thursday night home win against Buffalo. This week they get DaMarcus Ware and Von Miller in a noisy and hostile Sports Authority Field who have helped Denver generate 2.7 sacks per game against teams that allow 2.2. If the Dolphins have trouble running as I expect they will, it could be a long day for the Miami offense.

Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is still one of the top three quarterbacks in the game and despite losing TE Julius Thomas and RB Montee Ball in the first quarter and WR Emannuel Sanders in the third quarter, and struggling with offensive line issues, Manning still put up 389 yards at 7.2 yps last week and is capable of big performances every week. The concern is Denver’s struggling offensive line matched up against the Dolphins very good defensive line. If he has his receivers, a little bit of time and the weather cooperates (it might not as it looks like 20-30 MPH winds) he should have success. The Broncos qualify in a good 106-56-4 statistical match up situation that is 7-1 and as a result I like the Broncos minus the points.

Dallas (-3.5) 30 NY GIANTS 21

This is a big game for the Giants as they could mathematically be eliminated from the NFC East race with a loss but it is just as big a game for the Cowboys as they are tied with the Eagles at the top of the division with 7-3 records. The Cowboys are rested as they come off of their bye after beating the Jaguars two weeks ago in London, 31-17. Meanwhile, New York had their chances last week but couldn’t overcome five Eli Manning interceptions in their 10-16 home loss to the 49ers. New York will look to avenge their Week 7 (21-31) loss to the Cowboys in Dallas and may have a chance as since that game the Cowboys have dropped two of three.

Statistically this game is a mismatch as the Cowboys have excellent match-up advantages in both the pass and rush games. Dallas has the #2 rated rush offense that averages 154 yards at 5.0 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.3 ypr and will face the Giants #32 ranked rush defense that allows 144 yards at 5.0 ypr to teams that gain 118 yards at 4.3 ypr. With that in mind, it’s pick your poison as Dallas averages 7.1 yps against teams that allow 6.7 yps while the Giants allow 7.5 yps against teams that gain 6.8 yps on average. Based on the numbers, Dallas should be able to move the ball easily in this game.

On the other side the Giants are below average on offense overall and have demonstrated a lack of ability to either run or pass with any consistency. Having RB Rashad Jennings back should help as his 4.2 ypr average is much better than the other backs on the team and the Giants run game really suffered without him. He was only able to generate 59 yards at 3.3 ypr last week against a stout 49ers front but he should see more success this week against a Dallas run defense that has allowed 4.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr on average. Behind a reshuffled offensive line after some changes this week, Manning may have some opportunities in the pass game against a Cowboys defense that has given up 6.9 yps against teams that allow 6.4 yps.

It looks to me like there will be some points scored in this game as long as wind isn’t a major factor at MetLife Stadium, although it could be (10-20 mph winds currently projected). I think that the Giants will give one of their best efforts of the season at home in primetime against a division rival but they just don’t match up very well and Dallas benefits from a negative 198-318-17 statistical match-up situation that plays against the Giants. They also qualify in a 675-501-40 rush based situation. I like the Cowboys.

NY Jets (+2.5) 20 BUFFALO 19

With massive amounts of snow in the Buffalo region, this game has been rescheduled to Monday night and will now be played at Ford Field in Detroit. It appears that the Jets are in a good spot here as the Bills have been distracted by the weather and have had an unusual schedule this week where they haven’t been able to practice. Many of the coaches were apparently able to get to the facility on Monday or Tuesday and have slept there since, preparing for the Jets. They were able to send out film and game plans to the players but it isn’t the same as getting out onto the practice field and going through the motions. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off their bye and a home win against the Steelers the week prior. They have enjoyed a normal practice week and the offense is excited about having the opportunity to play indoors on a fast track.

Since making the switch to Mike Vick, the Jets offense has been better and should improve with the extra time to acclimate Vick into the starting role. Neither team will have much success running the ball as they each have below average rush offenses and will be facing above average rush defenses. After giving a spark to the Bills offense initially, quarterback Kyle Orton has regressed the past two weeks in losses to the Chiefs and the Dolphins but will have his opportunities against a Jets pass defense that is below average. I don’t have any situations in play in this game and my model, adjusted for the site change, favors Buffalo by 2.3 points. With the weather issue being a factor for the Bills while the Jets are healthy and confident coming off their break, I like the Jets.

Baltimore (+3.5) 27 NEW ORLEANS 25

It appears that the Saints just aren’t the same team this season due nearly exclusively to a defense that has been terrible. New Orleans can’t stop the run or the pass and last week allowed a struggling Cincinnati offense to tear them apart, with big gains on the ground and in the air. The Saints have been very good at home in the recent past but have now lost their last two games and have lost the cloak of invincibility that they had in the dome. In a bad NFC South they are in second place with a 4-6 record (they lose the tie-breaker with Atlanta) and every game is important. Their struggling defense took another hit as well last week as safety Rafael Bush was placed on IR and their depth now is paper thin as top safety Jairus Byrd and Vinnie Sunseri are also on IR. In addition, top cornerback Keenan Lewis has been hobbled and is not the same player. The injuries don’t stop there. On offense, they lost rookie WR Brandin Cooks last week as he was placed on IR and as a result the Saints will lack real explosive ability without his speed.

On the other side, the Ravens are feeling refocused and refreshed coming out of their bye week and have gotten a bit healthier with the extra time to recover. Since taking over as head coach of the Ravens in 2008, John Harbaugh has been tough to beat coming off the bye with a 6-2 record. They’ll be plenty motivated and excited to play in primetime on Monday night football and needing a win to keep pace in the highly competitive AFC North race. Baltimore is a better team overall and should be able to both run and pass effectively in this game while I expect the Saints will have trouble scoring points on a very good Ravens defense. An area of concern is the Ravens pass defense which has been shaken up after the loss of top cornerback Jimmy Smith and some moving pieces in the secondary, but the Ravens have a talented front seven that should be able to provide a pass rush to compensate for those shortcomings. My model only predicts a 1.2 point Saints win and there are situations going both ways in this one (a 74-36-3 Monday night situation that plays on the Saints and a 139-68-7 statistical match up situation that plays on the Ravens). I like the Ravens.

Randall the Handle

BEST BETS

Buccaneers (2-8) at Bears (4-6)

When Josh McCown came to Tampa Bay from Chicago, there were 17 new starters, a new coaching staff and a history of losing. It was no wonder that the 35-year-old career journeyman lost his first three games before getting hurt and then lost a tough one upon his return two weeks ago despite throwing for 300-plus yards. Finally, things came together last week in an upset win at Washington as the veteran QB found emerging star receiver Mike Evans seven times for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With some injured defensive players back on the field and with McCown becoming more familiar with his mates, the Buccaneers should see some continued improvement. Even with its poor record, this team is playing hard. They would like nothing more than to win for coach Lovie Smith who will also face his former employers. The Bears can’t be trusted and even in their first home win a week ago, QB Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Chicago has been favoured by three or more twice this season and lost both games straight up. Tampa has covered four straight as road dogs and should have little trouble adding to that total here. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +6

Browns (6-4) at Falcons (4-6)

The Falcons are feeling good after climbing to the top of the NFC South to be the best of the worst. Atlanta has a swagger because it has won consecutive games. Dirty Birds are also happy to be home for first time since Oct. 12 (how does that happen?). It may seem the Browns are walking into a lion’s den. Except it’s more like a kitten’s basket. You see, the only teams that the Falcons have defeated are the ones that reside in their dreadful division. Four wins versus the NFC South, six losses everywhere else. Cleveland is from another division, the hotly contested AFC North. And guess what? The Browns get their best player back this week when WR Josh Gordon takes the field after serving a 10-game suspension. The Brownies claim that Gordon could be limited in his return. Ha ha, that’s so funny. All Gordon did was lead the league in receiving yards a year ago despite missing two games. Receiver Andrew Hawkins also returned last week. Atlanta’s pass defence is abysmal. Browns are best when taking points. Cleveland wins this game straight up. TAKING: BROWNS +3½

Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)

We’re not ready to write off the Saints just yet. Yes, New Orleans has lost consecutive home games, but that doesn’t wipe out their 18-3-1 mark against the spread in its past 22 here played with coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees teaming up. That duo has demonstrated the fortitude to overcome a loss as they have posted a 21-6 ATS mark after a defeat, including a 16-3 ATS record on this field. The Saints have been their own worst enemies and Brees has made uncharacteristic boo boos that have cost his side. However, Brees and his troops can move the ball. They lead the league in first downs and have punted the fewest times. The Ravens are not built to stop this type of team. The loss of DB Jimmy Smith cannot be overstated as Smith was by their top guy in the secondary and his absence has players being shifted into unfamiliar positions. Baltimore is ranked 21st in pass defence while New Orleans’ passing offence is ranked third-best. The Ravens won’t be facing a rookie QB at home like they did against the Titans in Baltimore’s last game. TAKING: SAINTS -3

THE REST

Titans (2-8) at Eagles (7-3)

This is more Mark Sanchez’s speed. The lowly Titans arrive here on a short week after exerting a lot of energy in a near-miss at home to Pittsburgh. Without hope of a playoff appearance and no more prime-time games scheduled, Tennessee can ride off into the sunset for yet another year. Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a battle with the Cowboys for the NFC East and, after last week’s embarrassing meltdown in Green Bay, you can bet that Chip Kelly will be pulling out all stops for this one. Titans averaging less than 17 points per game. That won’t cut it here. TAKING: EAGLES -11

Lions (7-3) at Patriots (8-2)

Tom Brady and his New England offence are putting up some freakish numbers lately and while it’s difficult to fade the Patriots while they are behaving this way, good defences are capable of stopping the hottest of offences. The Lions happen to sport the league’s top-ranked stop unit and Brady has struggled when facing this calibre of opponent. The Pats lost straight up to Kansas City and Miami, who rank second and fourth respectively on defence. Brady could only muster up passer ratings of 59.9 and 69.7 in those two games. Detroit is not scoring much, but by taking the most points they’ve been offered all season, they don’t really have to. TAKING: LIONS +7

Packers (7-3) at Vikings (4-6)

Do you know what happens after back-to-back 50-point games? Teams don’t get another 50. Green Bay may not need that many to win here, but after toying with a couple of opponents up in Wisconsin, the Packers can take it easier against this lesser foe. The Pack already disposed of these Vikes 42-10 in October, but that was a Thursday night with useless Christian Ponder forced into action for Minnesota. The Vikings cannot win a shootout. They will have to play defence and they’ve shown they can, holding three of their past five foes to less than 17 points. Green Bay was 8½ at Lambeau. They shouldn’t be more than that at Minnesota. TAKING: VIKINGS +10

Jaguars (1-9) at Colts (6-4)

What looked like a cake walk to the AFC South division has now become a horse race with Houston sitting just one game behind the Colts. Combine that with Indianapolis’ dismantling at the hands of the Patriots last week and you can bet Indy will be all business on this day. These are the type of teams the Colts like to beat up on. They’ve done it once already to the Jaguars in an earlier 44-17 laugher. While Jacksonville has shown some spurts of improvement, its offence remains its albatross, scoring more than 17 points only twice this season. The Jags’ 28th-ranked pass defence will also have trouble slowing this top opposing unit. TAKING: COLTS -13½

Bengals (6-3-1) at Texans (5-5)

The Bengals are the new Cowboys. On the bandwagon. Off the bandwagon. Back on the bandwagon. We know what’s coming next. After upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last week, the public will be putting its faith and dollars back with Cincinnati here against a suspect opponent. However, we’re not sure that Cincinnati can pull off back-to-back road wins. Houston now has a guy that can throw a ball more than 15 yards toward the sidelines as Ryan Mallett will get his second start after taking down Cleveland last week. The Texans are so much better when Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are in the mix. TAKING: TEXANS -1½

Jets (2-8) at Bills (5-5)

After a 5-3 record quickly became 5-5, Buffalo’s season is slipping away quicker than a toboggan on an icy hill. The defence has held up its end of the bargain, but the same can’t be said for an anemic offence that has surpassed 17 points only twice in its past eight games. However, the Jets are unreliable and have not won a road game this season. Buffalo was aided by a bunch of Geno Smith gaffes in the first meeting, paving the way for a 43-23 Bills win. While Michael Vick is an improvement, he’s still Michael Vick. Buffalo’s pass rush and strong “D” should fluster the aging QB. This game has been moved out of Buffalo because of the massive snowfall that has beset the city. TAKING: BILLS -4

Cardinals (9-1) at Seahawks (6-4)

Cards have been good to us and they still can be, albeit from the other side. Two of QB Drew Stanton’s three wins were at home. The other was at the 3-7 Giants. Now Arizona’s backup QB will play in the league’s toughest venue against a Seattle team that is in a must-win situation. Seattle sits three games behind today’s visitor and a loss would mean the division and possibly worse. However, while Arizona owns the league’s best record, they have actually been outgained on the season. It can attribute much success to its +12 turnover ratio, but that may not work here. Also, Seattle is 8-0 ATS as a home favourite of seven points or less. TAKING: SEAHAWKS -6½

Rams (4-6) at Chargers (6-4)

Sure, the Chargers came back from their bye to defeat the Raiders but a closely fought 13-6 victory is not exactly a signature win. That one came on the heels of a three-game losing streak. It has been reported that QB Philip Rivers is suffering from a significant rib injury and that could be one of the reasons that San Diego’s offensive production has slowed right down, scoring just 54 points in its past four games. Conversely, the Rams are coming around. St. Louis has already knocked off Seattle, San Francisco and most recently, Denver. Much can be attributed to a pesky defence, fresh off an effort that held Peyton Manning & Co. to a season low seven points. TAKING: RAMS +4½

Dolphins (6-4) at Broncos (7-3)

Do you really want to trust the Broncos to win by more than a touchdown right now against one of the better defensive teams in the league? We don’t. As the season wears on, teams see more and more tape of their opponents and things get figured out. That’s not to say that Peyton Manning and his group are easy to stop, but Miami is a quality team that matches up well against a suddenly struggling Denver squad. The Fish have won four of their past five and they arrive here following a 10-day rest. The Broncos are banged up and it shows. This is a very generous offering for where these two are at. TAKING: DOLPHINS +7

Redskins (3-7) at 49ers (6-4)

No one wants to touch the Redskins this week as there is obvious discord between coach and quarterback. That unrest is definitely a concern, but of equal concern is San Francisco’s pop-gun offence. The Niners have topped 17 points only once in their past four games and struggles in the red zone continue to plague them. The Giants handed San Fran the ball five times last week and the 49ers still only managed 16 points. Another concern here for the home side is the look-ahead factor. Seattle will be making a visit here this upcoming Thanksgiving Thursday, a game that likely has huge playoff implications. The ’Skins’ mental makeup has us cautious, but they’re still the way to go. TAKING: REDSKINS +9

Cowboys (7-3) at Giants (3-7)

Outta sight, outta mind? Dallas has been off for two weeks after winning in London against the dreadful Jaguars, but the ’Boys had dropped a pair of home games prior to that. Tony Romo’s back should be doing better, but even so, we’re not anxious to spot these road points against a Giants team that could see its productivity increase. RB Rashad Jennings will be fresh after playing last week, returning from an injury. His presence gives Eli Manning some much-needed options and, with receiver Odell Beckham ascending weekly, Dallas will have its hands full. The Cowboys were 4½-point faves at home in this matchup a month ago. Should they be 3½ at the Giants? TAKING: GIANTS +3½

NFL Predictions

Atlanta Falcons -3

For as bad as the Falcons have been this season, they were actually one less Lions penalty away from being on a three game winning streak at the moment. If you recall, in London the Lions missed a game winning field goal, but were saved by a delay of game penalty which gave Matt Prater another opportunity to win the game. The Falcons responded with wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Not the most daunting opponents, but they needed to get back in the win column for some confidence. Owner Arthur Blank called the team out after the Lions game, so I am pretty sure that had something to do with the better efforts as well. It really is inexcusable for a team with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White on the same field to be 2 games below .500. Throw in Devin Hester and they should have a dymanic offense, but it seems to me there is an effort problem in Atlanta. I think the remarks from Arthur Blank after blowing that Lions game reignited a spark under them a little bit. Note that the Falcons are 2-1 at home, not 2-2, the 2nd loss doesn’t take into account the loss in London. The Falcons have wins over the Saints and Bucs at home, with their lone loss coming to the Bears. This is about the part where I think the Browns fall on their faces. They won three straight, including a win over the Bengals, but the offense was out of sync last week against the Texans, scoring only 7 points. The Browns sent Ben Tate to waivers, later claimed by the Vikings, which left Isaiah Crowell as the starter. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer had 50 attempts for the Browns last week, 30-50. That is not how the Browns are going to win games. They need some resemblance of a running game to set the offense up. They are now moving forward without a reliable running back, and center Alex Mack is out for the season. The Falcons have a poor pass defense and the Browns should pass plenty more this week. While the Falcons have trouble defending the air attack, they should be able to play well this week against what should be a predictable offense. The Browns did lose earlier in the season to the Jaguars on the road, a game in which I called. The Falcons have been on the road four straight weeks if you can believe that. This isn’t the same unbeatable Matt Ryan at home squad like we once knew, but they still have a great home field advantage in the Georgia Dome. At 4-6 the Falcons still have time to turn the season around. I think they’ll at least be going in the right direction after winning their third in a row against the Browns on Sunday.