EZWINNERS
Tennessee Titans +11
The next person I see on the Titans with me this week will be the first. This is an ugly play as surely the Eagles high powered offense will bounce back after being destroyed by Green Bay last week won't they? I'm not so sure. Let's not forget this is Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez looked like an all pro in his first start, but lets not forget that this was against a horrible Carolina team. Titan's quarterback Zack Mettenberger played well against the Steeler's on Monday night and should be able to move the ball against an Eagles defense that is last in the NFL giving up 272 passing yards per game at home. Take the double digit points in this one.
Minnesota Vikings +8
This line has dropped some, but it is still inflated after the Packers have put up back to back 50 point performances at home the last two weeks. Green Bay also blasted the Vikings in the first meeting in Green Bay. This time around in the rematch, Minnesota has rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center and the Vikings have covered the spread in three straight games. The Vikings defense is also improving as they have held three of their last five opponents to 17 points or less and have averaged four sacks per game during this span. Let's not also forget that the Packers have a losing road record and I don't think this will be as easy as most think. Take the points.
Seattle Seahawks -7
Laying seven points to the team with the best record in the league seems really crazy and that is exactly why I am doing it. Seattle was out muscled last week in Kansas City by the Chiefs power running game, but the Cardinals don't have that same kind of physical offense that can take advantage of the Seattle defense. The Seahawks are a much different team at home. They will be pissed off from last week and also will remember this Cardinals winning here last year. Drew Stanton has played well in place of injured Cardinals starting quarterback Carson Palmer, but I expect the Hawks to make it a long day for Stanton and company. Lay the points as Seattle win big at home.
Long Beach State 49ers +11
UCLA is off to a 3-0 start and are leading the nation in scoring after playing three very weak opponents. The Bruins will be tested in this game against the 2-2 49ers who will provide a much stiffer test on the defensive end of the court. The Beach also has enough offensive firepower to let the Bruins know that they were in a game. Take the points as I expect Long Beach to keep this one within single digits.
Joe Gavazzi
Indianapolis Colts -13.5
The Jags have taken it in the chops on numerous occasions from Indy. The 44-17 week 3 home loss to the Colts now makes it 4 consecutive defeats vs Indy by an average score of 39-10. The Jags’ offense remains largely pathetic, scoring more than 17 points only twice. Today, they travel to Indy, where they will be at the wrong place at the wrong time, for the Colts were just embarrassed on this very field by the New England Patriots on SNF by a score of 42-20. All you need to know is that under the watch of QB Luck, Indianapolis is 12-1 SU ATS following a defeat, and that the Colts have now won and covered 10 consecutive games against divisional opponents.
Cincinnati Bengals +2
Houston caught Cleveland in a flat spot last week and delivered a 23-7 road victory, outrushing the Browns 213-58. That is the same Cleveland team who the week before defeated this very Bengal contingent by a count of 24-3. Forewarned is forearmed. Now the Texans look to build on that momentum behind rookie QB Mallett, and a #31 ranked pass defense that is allowing 279 PYPG. Far prefer the Cincinnati momentum to continue. The Bengals began this season 3-0 SU ATS; following their BYE week, they dipped to 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, losing road games at New England and Indy (no shame there). But the Bengals have bounced since that 27-0 shutout at Indy by going 3-1 SU ATS to claim the division lead. That includes a 27-10 upset win at New Orleans last week, in which they outrushed the Saints 186-75. Know that the Bengals have a continuing history of creating momentum, for they are 15-2 SU ATS following exactly one victory, both SU and ATS. In a similar way, this momentum is created when Cinci plays on the road following an underdog victory, in which they allow 10 or fewer points, with a 63% ATS winning mark. Playing to retain the division lead, I like Cincinnati to follow their patterns and record this victory.
Carlo Campanella
NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: NY Jets +4½
The Jets lost the first meeting between these two AFC East rivals back on October 26th at home, 43-23, which gave them their 7th straight loss at the time. They went on to lose two more after that, but then snapped their 9 game losing skid in their last game when beating Pittsburgh, 20-13, in New York. That was two weeks ago and these Jets come off their "bye" week with confidence from that victory knowing that they're 4-1 ATS with rest against a division rival behind HC Rex Ryan. Expect a veteran QB like Mick Vick to be able to put points on the board and keep this game close with an extra week of rest to prepare for a division rival that they know very well.
King Creole
Redskins / 49ers Under 44.5
If the inept Washington offense could score only SEVEN freakin' points at HOME against the league's 31st ranked passing defense, then how many will they score on the ROAD against the league's #4 defense? A surprising aspect of this game is that these same Redskins are also ranked in the TOP TEN in overall defense themselves. So we'll 'Go LOW' out on the West Coast on Sunday in a game of Top Ten defenses. And it'll also feature two of the bottom-third offenses in the league (#20 vs #22).
Washington came off their Bye Week on Sunday and s**t the bed against the Tampa Bay Bucs (lost 27-7 as home favs of -6.5 pts).... 1-8 O/U last 3 years: All teams off a SU home favorite loss right AFTER their Bye Week (Wash).
Prior to last week's game, the Redskins also lost as a favorite BEFORE their Bye Week (on the road vs Minnesota)... 0-6 O/U last 3 years: All underdogs off BACK-to-BACK SU favorite losses in a row (Wash).
The host 49ers come home off two straight GREAT road wins in a row. Last Sunday, they won and covered as a road favorite vs the NY Giants. Before that, it was an outright road dog win vs the Saints.... 0-6 O/U last 4 years: All NFL favorites off a SUATS road FAV win and a SUATS road DOG win (Niners) when the OU line is 40 > points.
San Francisco plays in the NFC West Division while Washington is in the NFC East... 1-9 O/U since 1999: All NFC WEST Division home favs of -4 > pts (San Fran) vs any NFC EAST Division opponent (Wash) when the OU line is 43 > points.
Up next for the host Niners is a BIG game against division rival Seattle. NFL favorites of > 3 points (Niners) have gone 0-8-1 O/U since 1999 BEFORE playing a home game vs the Seattle Seahawks.
That big game next week against Seattle will also be on the 'TURKEY DAY' menu... 11-29-2 O/U since 1980 / 0-6 O/U last 4 years: All NFL home favorites of < 190 points BEFORE playing a THURSDAY home game (Niners) when the OU line is < 47 points.
DAVE COKIN
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
PLAY: HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5
If you can figure out the Bengals, congratulations. They’re as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets this season, which basically explains to a large extent how the Bengals were favored at New England earlier this season and are now dogs at Houston. Granted, the Patriots were struggling at the time that game took place, but Cincinnati was also looking like a serious contender at the time. In spite of winning three of their last four, I’m pretty sure most observers don’t consider the Bengals to be anything more than mere pretenders right now.
Regardless, the Bengals are 6-3-1, they’re leading their division and they’re in good shape to make the playoffs. Yet here they are, cast in the underdog role against a 5-5 Houston entry and whose wins are against the Redskins, Raiders, Bills, Titans and Browns. In other words, zero wins against a team that currently would own a playoff position.
Maybe the oddsmakers are seeing the Texans like I am, however. It’s as small a sample as it gets, but Houston looked like a totally different team last week with Ryan Mallett stepping under center in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s just perception on my part, but I thought I saw an energized team playing with confidence last week. They won impressively at Cleveland and I’m counting on that momentum rolling into today’s game.
Make no mistake, this is no cinch. The Bengals have lost just twice when AJ Green plays and they’re very good when they’re right. But I also feel as though Andy Dalton can be dominated by good defenses, and that’s really the key here. The Houston defense is capable of containing opposing offenses and we all know that Dalton is not exactly Mr. Consistency.
In terms of data, this is very close. I utilize a couple of formulas to come up with NFL lines, and while I’ll admit these are not all that reliable during the first half of the season, they generally do quite well late. Both sets have Houston winning, albeit by extremely slim margins. Thus, if we’re talking value, there is none to be had here as Houston is indeed the small favorite.
My take is more on the feel I’m getting with Mallett now the QB for the Texans. If he bounces off the impressive debut, so be it, and I’ll probably lose this play. But if Mallett can build on that performance, or just manage to maintain, I like the home team’s chances. I think this could be one of the better games on the Sunday NFL slate, and my money will be on the Texans to emerge with the win and cover.
Harry Bondi
Detroit / New England Under 47.5
New England has been an over machine this year, scoring 37 points or more in five out of the last six weeks, but this is, by far, the best defense it has faced during that stretch. The Lions defensive front is certainly not going to allow the Pats to run for more than 200 yards, as they did last week at Indy, as the Lions rank near the top of the league in rushing defense. Meanwhile, Detroit has gone under in six of its last seven games and during that stretch the offense has failed score more than 24 points. The Lions will be looking to lean heavily on its superior defense here today want to avoid a shootout at all costs. Look for a conservative game plan that will try to keep Tom Brady on the sidelines and keep the points to a minimum. Go under!
River City Sharps
San Francisco -9
The Washington Redskins are a complete mess right now. We have HC Jay Gruden calling out his QB in front of everyone to see, meticulously noting everything he does wrong. Griffin seems to be oblivious to all of the talk, still seeming to believe that he is an elite NFL quarterback. They now have to travel cross country to take on the San Francisco 49ers, winners of five of their last seven games. The Washington running game, which has been a big help to Griffin and the Washington offense, appears to be non-existent as RB Alfred Morris has gone 17 consecutive games without hitting the 100-yard mark! On the other side, the Niners offense has also struggled at times, but their defense has been extremely opportunistic in getting them back to their current 6-4 mark. This Washington team has really bad “mojo” right now and doesn’t really appear to like each other that much. The Skins are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and the 49ers are 5-2 against the number over that same time. These are two teams going in different directions and we’re not afraid to lay the number here with the home team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
SEATTLE -7 over Arizona: I know that the Cardinals are playing very well this year and they do have the best record in the NFL, but I really feel that the Seahawks are due to put a hurtin’ on a team and make a statement that they are still a formidable team. The Seahawks also have revenge on their minds for last year 17-10 home loss, which was their only home loss of the year. This game will be Drew Stanton’s biggest test so far and he hasn’t been all good when he has played this year, completing just 53.6% of his passes and last week vs a very tough Detroit defense he didn’t do anything past the first quarter. Now he will go to one of the toughest venues for even the most seasoned QBs to play well. I just don’t see him doing allot in this one, while the Seattle offense should wake up and have some success vs an Arizona defense that isn’t as good on the road as they are at home. Seattle by 10+ in this one.
St Louis / San Diego Under 43.5: The Chargers offense is not as good as it was in the early part of the year and it starts with Rivers who is banged up a bit and just not making the plays he was. Now vs a tough St Louis pass rush I expect him to have more problems in this game and I also expect more of a running game from the Bolts to help take the pressure off of Rivers. The Charger defense will have to pick up the slack if they hope to win this one and they have been solid this year, especially at home where they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 271.4 ypg on the year. The St Louis defense has struggled on the road, but they will be taking on a San Diego offense that has scored just 13.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Under is 23-9 in Rams last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 12-4 in Chargers last 16 games following a S.U. win. Look for this one to be played in the mid-30s.
Denver / Miami Under 48: This one really sets up as low scoring game. The Bromco offense has not been as sharp this year and now are dealing with injuries to RB Hillman and WRs Emmanuel Sanders (Prob) and Julius Thomas, plus they still have an OL this is a mess. Very hard for to expect them tom put up a ton of points facing a very tough Miami pass rush. Overall this has been a solid Miami defense that ranks 2nd in the league in yards allowed, 2nd in passing and 4th in points allowed (18.0 ppg). I see them being able to slow down here. The Broncos are not all about offense as they come in ranked 5th in yards allowed and 2nd vs the run, while allowing just 22.4 ppg overall, including just 19.8 ppg at home. Denver home games have averaged 54 ppg, but Miami road games have averaged just 39 ppg and none of their last 5 games overall have put up more than 41 points and we also note that the last 4 in this series has put up 44 points or less. I look for no more than 42 points in this one, especially since the Under is 7-1-1 Miami's last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
BEST OF THE REST
PHILADELPHIA -11 over Tennessee: The Eagles were thoroughly embarrassed last week at Green Bay, while Tennessee is off a short week and off a very physical and draining battle with the Steelers on Monday night. This is not a good spot for the Titans. The Eagles have been very good at home, outscoring their opponents by 15.4 ppg, while Tennessee has been outs cored by 10 ppg on the road. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS off a DD loss in which they allowed 40 or more points, while the Titans are just 1-9 ATS off a non-division Monday night game. I look for the Eagles to bounce back big in this one.
Dallas / Giants Over 47.5: Some crazy crap goes on in these night games and im hoping it does so tonight which will lead to more points. The Dallas offense has had a week off to try and get back to putting up the numbers that they did earlier in the year, which included scoring 26 or more in 5 of their first 7 games. During that stretch they scored 31 points vs this same Giants squad and should have similar success vs a defense that is 31st in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed, giving up 26.3 ppg. The Giant offense isn’t all that strong, but they are capable of getting some scores vs a Dallas defense that really has played over its head this year. The 0ver is 8-3-1 the last 12 meetings in New York and I expect that trend to continue here.
Cincinnati / Houston Under 44: The Houston offense is not all that good as they have been dealing with injuries and inconsistent play at QB. The Texans have averaged just 22.3 ppg at home this year and I don’t see them topping that in this one vs a Bengals defense that has struggled this year, but also come in with confidence after holding New Orleans to just 10 points last week. The Bengal offense has been a model of inconsistency this year, especially on the road where they have averaged just 16.8 ppg, while Houston has allowed just 21.8 ppg at home. The Under is 20-6-1 in Bengals last 27 games following a SU win of more than 14 points and 11-4 in Texans last 15 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. This one should be played in the mid 30s.
Prophet Plays
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +2
Andy Dalton definitely owns the experience edge in this quarterback matchup over career backup Ryan Mallett. Mallett was able to pilot the Texans to a road win over Cleveland last week. The Houston defense limited Cleveland to only a touchdown last week, but not so sure they can stymie the Bengals like that today. Houston has been a house of horrors for Cincy, as the Bengals lost to Houston in Houston in both 2011 & 2012's playoffs! While this won't make up for those stinging losses, a win here on Sunday will sure go a long way for Cincinnati in the AFC North race. The Bengals usually do better when they are NOT favored to win, and while they are not a massive underdog in this one, they are 2-1 against the spread this season on the road as the dog, and 9-4-2 overall now as the road underdog since 2011's season. At the end of the day, would rather side with Dalton's experience over Mallett in his second career start.
Rob Vinciletti
Bengals vs. Texans
Play: Under 43.5
This one looks to be low scoring and Foster may not play for the Texans and has not practiced all week. For Technical support we note, AFC Favorites at -2.5 or less vs an AFC Team with a total of 47 or less are 15 of 18 under If both teams allowed 10 or less on the road last week 7/7 under. .500 or less home favorites vs a .668 or better with total 40.5 or more are 8 of 9. AFC South vs AFC North 19 of 22 if total 38.5 or higher. In the series these two have played 4 straight to the under. Houston 5 of 6 under vs non division as a home favorite of less than 4 and 4 of 5 vs .667 or better teams. The Bengals are 22 of 30 under vs an opponent that allows 23 0 or more yards passing in the 2nd half, The Bengals are 8 of 9 under in weeks 10-13. Look for this one to be low scoring.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Browns +3
I'm not comfortable laying a FG or more with Cleveland, but in this case, we're back to getting points with the Browns. They'll face a Falcons' team that's one-dimensional on offense, unable to run the football consistently. Teams that normally fare well against the Browns do so with a solid ground game. Matt Ryan played well last week for the most part, but as a team, the Falcons gained just 4.7 yards per play, while the defense allowed over 6 yards per play - and Atlanta scored just one TD, but won the game 19-17 over a struggling Carolina Panther team. Meanwhile, the Falcon defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 24th against the run and dead last in the league in passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. This leads me to an underdog play on the Cleveland Browns, plus the points on Sunday.
Andy Iskoe
Indianapolis -13.5
Jacksonville returns from its Bye week to face a Colts team off of its showdown against the Patriots which was more of a showcase for the Pats who won handily, 42-20. Indy won the earlier meeting at Jacksonville, 44-17, a much needed win that followed a pair of losses to open the season. Prior to the loss to the Pats the Colts won by 16 at the Giants after losing by 17 at Pittsburgh. Their 4 losses are all to winning teams that are a combined 29-12. The Colts have feasted on the lesser teams they've faced. Aside from the Jags and Giants, the only other team with a losing record faced by the Colts was Tennessee, with Indy winning by 24. With their lead in the AFC South down to a single game over Houston, the Colts will take no chances against the overmatched 1-9 Jags, even with the loss of injured RB Bradshaw. The Colts may still be able to take advantage of Jacksonville's defense that has allowed 151, 191 and 148 rushing yards the past 3 games. 6 of the Jags' 9 losses have been by 14 points or more and even though they are off of their Bye week there is just too much of a talent gap.
Sleepyj
Minnesota +11
I like this line here at 5 dimes...This is a let down spot spot here with GB after a couple big wins. Jump on the road against a division dog in Minn. Minn off a loss..Give me the point here.. Minn will hang around and shock all the packer backers..i would be happy with 8.5 and this number went on the rise from the jump. I think the sharp money and public money came in on GB. I think the number +10 and above has value.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Pick: Chicago Bears
Lovie Smith was fired by the Chicago Bears two years ago but surely hasn't enjoyed much success in his first season of coaching since. That said, things haven't gone smoothly for his former team, either. Both Smith's Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears are looking to build on much-needed victories Sunday when the coach returns to Soldier Field. Smith went 81-63 over nine seasons in Chicago, made the playoffs three times, reached two NFC title games and guided the Bears to their second Super Bowl appearance after the 2006 season. He was eventually fired after the Bears went 10-6 and failed to make the playoffs in 2012.
Still, some current Bears, especially on the defensive side of the ball, continue to praise their former coach. "He was the type of guy that you really wanted to run through a wall for," linebacker Lance Briggs said. "And you didn't want to see him go." The defensive-minded Smith was replaced by Marc Trestman, who thrived as an NFL offensive assistant and head coach in the CFL but he has endured a rocky start in Chicago. Trestman is 12-14 in Chicago (4-6 in 2014) and not only has Chicago defense been a HUGE problem, the offense is averaging 6.3 points fewer than its NFC-best 27.8 PPG from 2013.
The most glaring difference between the Bears under Smith and Trestman is on defense. Returning to that Chicago defense, the Bears allowed 29.9 PPG (31st) last year on 394.6 YPG (30th). While Chicago is allowing about 30 YPG less in 2014, the team's 29.0 PPG allowed ranks 32nd of 32 teams (wouldn’t the ‘85 Bears be proud!). Chicago averaged 2.2 takeaways, allowed 19.2 points per game and 40 points or more in a single contest just four times under Smith. However, in 26 games under Trestman and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, the Bears have averaged 1.6 takeaways, 29.5 points per contest and given up 40 six times. After yielding 50 or more points in two straight, Chicago managed to snap a three-game slide with last Sunday's 21-13 victory over Minnesota. The Bears allowed a season-low 243 yards but it came against a Vikings team that ranks 30th with 309.1 per contest.
The good news is, the Bears face a second straight poor offensive team in Tampa Bay. Smith's Buccaneers are 2-8 in his first season after taking a year off and enter this contest averaging 313.3 YPG (28th) and 19.4 PPG (25th). Smith is hoping those numbers improve now that former Bear Josh McCown has regained the starting job he lost after suffering a thumb injury. He has thrown for 589 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in two games since getting back on the field. McCown threw for 288 yards and two TD passes to rookie Mike Evans, as the Bucs snapped a FIVE-game skid with a 27-7 win at Washington last Sunday. He earned a two-year, $10 million deal with Tampa Bay after throwing for 1,543 yards, 11 TDs, one interception and posting a 108.2 passer rating while going 3-2 as a starter for the Bears in place of an injured Jay Cutler last season.
However, the 35-year old has come nowhere near matching those numbers in 2014, as he’s 1-4 in five starts with six TDs, six INTs and an 82.6 QB rating. Speaking of QBs, Jay Cutler (whom the Bears handed a seven-year, $126.7 million extension instead of re-signing McCown), threw for 330 yards with three TDs but was picked off twice for the second straight week last Sunday. He's thrown half of his 12 INTs in the last four games. The Bears have been a poor home team for awhile now (3-14-1 ATS their last 18) but I want NO part of the Bucs trying to win back-to-back road games.
Jesse Schule
Chicago at Vancouver
Pick" Over
The Canucks have had a great start to the season but recent form are pointing downwards. They've lost two of their last three getting out-scored 12-7 during regulation and that could spell trouble against a prolific Blackhawks team tonight. The visitors are coming into this contest on the back off three consecutive wins scoring a total of 17 goals with seven of them coming in last night's demolition of the Oilers. The Blackhawks went 2-for-7 on the power play and have had at least one goal on the man advantage in each of their last four games. The Nucks was 0-for-1 on the power play their last game but 2-for-5 in the game prior to that. Eddie Lack tended the net in the Nucks game Thursday but we're likely to see Ryan Miller back between the pipes tonight. He's had a great start to his career in Vancouver but have now conceded nine over his last two starts. Playing the Blackhawks in this state might not be an optimal spot for the veteran who is 2-7-0 with a 2.96 GAA against Chicago since 2010. The Blackhawks might opt to go with their backup goalie Scott Darling as Corey Crawford played the full game last night and have started 10 games in a row. None of the Blackhawks last four have gone under the total, and the crowd at Rogers Arena have gotten used to seeing plenty of goals with only three of the Nucks last 11 at home failing to go over the total.