Bruce Marshall
Nuggets at Lakers
Pick: Over
The return to active duty of explosive and happy-go-lucky gunner Nick Young, whose smiling presence has allowed Lakers to counter Kobe Bryant's surly moods. But it has not helped the Lake Show on defense, where it still has various deficiencies. These are the two worst scoring defense teams in the league, so "over" worth a look.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Edges - Browns: 4-0 SU last four games versus NFC South opponents; and 3-1 ATS as underdogs with Mike Pettine. Falcons: 1-10 SUATS in first of back-to-back home games versus winning opponent; and 1-6 ATS last seven games versus AFC opponents. With Atlanta head coach Mike Smith 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a favorite off a pair of SU wins when taking on an opponent off a SU favorite loss, we recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.
Jim Feist
Warriors at Thunder
Pick: Under
The Warriors are out to a great start this season at 9-2. They have also been very good to bettors at 8-3 ATS. But what is surprising is that they are just 4-7 O/U. Well, not really when you look the actual numbers. Yes, this Warriors club is fast paced at 98.5 overall (league avg is 92.5). Pace being possessions per 48 minutes. But it's not just how many actual possessions you get, but what you do with them. That's where offensive and defensive efficiency ratings come in. The Warriors are just above the league avg of 107.3 in offense with a 109.5 ratings. However, they much better than the league in defense with 98.5 ratings. On the road their efficiency drops to 103, but they are even better on defense with a 94.1. What that means is that they are keeping opponents from scoring when they have attempts. At league better than the league average. This is why they are a fast paced team with a better under than over mark. Today they face a Oklahoma City club that is not very good either in pace (88.9) or scoring when they do get the ball (100.5 efficiency). And against a stingy Golden State defense that won't be good for the Thunder. The Warriors have held four opponents to fewer than 90 points this season including last time out against Utah in a 101-88 win. OKC has scored over 90 points just twice in its last five games including a 65 points home output against a similar defense unit in Houston. Don't expect much out of the Thunder here on Sunday. I like this one to go UNDER.
Joe D'Amico
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas comes off a valuable bye week to face Division rival, New York. The Cowboys (7-3) have won 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) over the Giants, including a 31-21 victory back in October. That loss was the 2nd of 5 straight (both SU and ATS) for the G-men, who are being outscored by 14 PPG in their current skid. Romo is back and healthy but it has been the legs of DeMarco Murray (1233 YR and 7 TD's) that has been the cornerstone of the Dallas offense. NY ranks 32nd against the run, giving up 145 YPG on the ground. The once-feared stop-unit also ranks 31st in Total yards Allowed (397.7 YPG). This along with the fact that Eli Manning went back to his old ways tossing 5 INT's last week to bring his total up to 11 for the season, tells me that the Giants are in trouble here. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS their L5 meetings over the Giants, 4-0 ATS their L4 road games, and 6-2 ATS their L8 vs. the NFC East. The Giants are 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS their L5 in Week 12, and 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. the NFC.
Jack Jones
Miami Dolphins +7
The Denver Broncos (7-3) are a mess right now. They are dealing with injuries to four of their best skill players on offense, leaving Peyton Manning short-handed. Montee Ball (groin) isn’t expected to return until early December, while Julius Thomas (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) are doubtful. Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) is listed as questionable.
It’s no wonder the Broncos scored a season-low seven points in their 7-22 loss to the Rams last week. They lost Thomas to an ankle injury early in the game. Then, Sanders went out with a concussion later on. The Broncos’ offense stalled the rest of the way and could never mount a comeback. Peyton Manning just isn’t the same quarterback without all of these weapons.
Sanders is second on the team in receiving with 67 receptions for 954 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas has 40 catches for 426 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns, so Manning is going to be without his top two red zone targets. Hillman leads the team in rushing with 378 yards and three scores, while also catching 20 balls for 137 yards and a touchdown. This Denver offense is just rather pedestrian without these three guys.
I have been very impressed with Miami this season. It is every bit as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and it has been playing its best football over the last five weeks. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. In fact, they are 5-2 in their last seven games with their only two losses coming to Detroit (16-20) and Green Bay (24-27) by a combined seven points. Both the Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the NFC this year, and they arguably should have beat both, losing on late scores in the closing seconds.
Miami ranks in the top half of the league in total offense at 348.4 yards per game this season under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. However, the defense is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ success. They rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 302.5 yards per game. They are also 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 45.9 yards per contest. That is the sign of an elite team, and one that is fully capable of giving the short-handed Broncos a run for their money.
The Dolphins come into this game on an extra three days’ rest having played last Thursday in a dominant 22-9 home win over the Bills. That extra preparation will be huge for this team as they get ready for Manning and company. The Broncos could be looking ahead to their showdown with the Chiefs next week knowing that first place in the division will be on the line in that game. I just like the Dolphins’ physical and mental state better than that of the Broncos heading into this one.
Denver is 19-41 ATS in its last 60 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better. Miami is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 vs. AFC west opponents. The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver, including 4-0 ATS in the last four road meetings.
Dave Price
San Diego Chargers -5.5
Expect a letdown from the Rams following last week's big upset win over the Broncos. The Rams have a few nice wins but have suffered a letdown following them. After they upset Seattle, they were crushed 34-7 in Kansas City the following week. And, after they upset the 49ers, they were kicked 31-14 by Arizona. History is most definitely not on the side of St. Louis here. In fact, you want to fade road underdogs or pickems off an upset win at home of 14 points or more as doing so has produced a 74-49 ATS mark since 1983. The Rams have been a weak road underdog over the years and are an ultra-soft 10-25 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.0 points since 1992.
Ray Monohan
Cincinnati Bengals +2
The Bengals bounced back in a big way last week dumping the Saints on the road...just another wild ride on the Red Rocket I suppose. This week they should be able to handle a Houston team now being led by Ryan Mallett. There is talent around him for sure but the Bengals will show why they are going to be division champs in this one by getting the W. The line is moving for us though.
Jimmy Boyd
Denver Broncos -6½
It’s hard to not like the Broncos at home coming laying just a touchdown, especially off that embarrassing loss to the Rams. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home this season with all 5 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Adding to this is the fact that all 19 of the Broncos wins at home (19-2) since they acquired Peyton Manning have come by at least 7 points.
Denver has followed up each of their two previous losses this season with blowout wins. They knocked off the Cardinals 41-20 after losing to Seattle and destroyed the Raiders by a near identical score 41-17 after losing to the Patriots. Adding to this is that with Manning the Broncos have followed up each of their last 7 regular season losses with a win the next week by at least 7 points.
The only real concern with Denver in this game is that Julius Thomas is listed as questionable. If Thomas wasn't able to play, it would definitely be a big blow to the Broncos, but they have a number of quality receivers. As long as Manning is on top of his game and you have to expect he will be after last week, Denver’s offense is going to be able to move the football and put up points.
Another thing to take into consideration with this matchup is that Miami hasn’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. While the Dolphins have a 3-2 road record, two of their wins came against two of the worst teams in the league in Jacksonville and Oakland and the other was against the Bears, who have not played well at home. They lost 10-29 at Buffalo in Week 2 and most recently at Detroit 16-20.
Miami has played extremely well defensively and come in with the 2nd ranked pass defense (208.0 ypg), but Denver is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who are allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt and have won these games by an average score of 26.2 to 17.4. The Broncos also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a home favorite of 7-points or less.
Chip Chirimbes
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7
I love this Arizona club as I advised anyone that would listen to take them at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, after all it is being played in Arizona. But, this game sets up differently as they come off an impressive defensive performance against the Lions allowing only two field goals in their 14-6 win. Seattle meanwhile, at 6-2 has to go some to get into the playoffs and Pete Carroll will have them ready. Expect Marshawn Lynch to add to his league leading nine touchdown runs and with the home team holding a 11-5 ATS advantage I expect the Seahawks to control the ball and the game.
Bill Biles
Philadelphia Eagles -11
The Eagles are coming off a bad loss to the Packers and I see them bouncing back in a huge way. The Titans are coming off a short week, and the Eagles are a tough team to prepare for. The Eagles will get the running game back on track and the Eagles win big in this one.
Steve Janus
San Diego Chargers -5
The Rams are getting way too much respect off their big win over the Broncos and the public is going to be scared to lay points against this team after watching them upset the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos in their last 5 games. San Diego on the other hand is a strong team that is flying under the radar right now. St Louis followed up each of those upsets against Seattle and San Francisco with awful showing the next week, losing to the Chiefs by 27 and the Cardinals by 17. Look for the Chargers to keep the trend going with a blowout win at home.
System - Road underdogs off an up win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are just 39-74 (34%) ATS since 1983.
Ari Atari
Denver Nuggets -2
Neither team is known for its defense, but the Lakers are known to be much more porous and much more confused out there. Kobe can't save this squad from the basement of the Western Conference. The Lakers surrendered 140 points to Dallas while the Nuggets are coming off a decisive 117-97 win over New Orleans.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups. The favorite between them all covered 7 out of the last 9 times. Ty Lawson runs circles around Jeremy Lin. The Nuggets should be able to come out with another ATS win here.
Nick Parsons
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -5½
I think the Rams are getting way too much respect off of their big win last week against the Denver Broncos. I see the public being scared to lay points against a team that has upset not only the Broncos, but also Seahawks and 49’ers in the past five games. You have to look at what happened with the Rams after those wins. After each win the Rams have played absolutely awful the next game. They lost to Kansas City by 27 and Arizona by 17. The San Diego Chargers have been flying under everyone’s radar this season and I expect the o get the win and cover here.
Doug Upstone
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7
Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like ARIZONA, averaging 70-95 rushing yards a game, against a team with similar rush defense (70-95 RY/game). Why this NFL system works is because away underdogs in this price range does not have much success running the pigskin and become one dimensional, making them easier to beat. This system is 33-7 ATS, 82.5 percent and the average margin of victory the last decade is 13.7 points a game.
Brad Diamond
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Cleveland Browns +3
Cleveland (6-4) off 23-7 to Houston, but history tells us HC Pettine has them rebounding well off a loss. But, injuries compound the Browns situation. Cleveland with Hoyer have the ability to attack the Falcons (4-6) defense that is rated #31 in total defense allowing 281 yards a game through the air. That's next to last in the NFL. WR Josh Gordon returns to the lineup which is huge plus for the Browns and Hoyer. No doubt Atlanta has looked reasonably well off back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina. Cleveland, though, owns the series with a 10-3 SU edge. Plus Cleveland as the road team is 5-1 SU at Atlanta. Cleveland shows 16-5-1 ATS on the road vs. a unit with a losing home record. Falcons have lost 4 straight ATS on field turf..