Heath Mac
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -6½
It’s not often we get the Broncos at less than a TD at home these days, but the Dolphins are in form and so there is plenty of enthusiasm about their chances here. Miami have been a good team at home, but only an average team on the road, with all 3 of their road wins coming against suspect opponents in Jacksonville (terrible), Oakland (terrible) and Chicago (poor, especially at home this season). They’ll find the going a lot tougher in one of the hardest places to win in the NFL.
DENVER is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. After the Broncos last 7 losses (regular season), they have come out and won the next game by more than 7 points on each occasion and this game fits that situation.
Wunderdog
Tennessee @ Philadelphia
Pick: Tennessee +11
The Philadelphia Eagles had everything going at 7-2 until they went to Lambeau last week. In that game they suffered a humiliating loss as the Packers torched them for over 50 points. Mark Sanchez seemed to show signs of why he lost his starting QB role with the NY Jets: turnovers. Sanchez threw two INTs and also fumbled three times, losing two of them. That isn't a good sign because he had shown confidence replacing Foles, but the issues that drove him out of New York may ultimately be back to haunt him in Philly. Tennessee is just 2-8 on the season which won't get the interest of Philly. Especially considering the Eagles played a big game last week and they have an even bigger game next week on Thanksgiving Day off short rest. The fact is they follow Dallas on Turkey day with Seattle, and then Dallas again, so this is a huge sandwich game for them. The Eagles have not been good after a poor defensive game as they are 3-12-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Eagles have allowed 25.1 poitns per game on the season so I expect the Titans to find some success. Tennessee has nothing to lose here and Mettenberger has been able to move the ball fairly well, throwing for 7.8 yards per attempt, which is better by more than a yard compared to Jake Locker. Grab the generous points on Tennessee.
Brady Kannon
Minnesota +10
Like The New England Patriots, The Green Bay Packers are too the toast of the town, specifically the NFC, and have been installed as the 2nd favorite to win the SuperBowl, second only to those same Patriots. Green Bay has been lighting teams up - but again, like New England, they too face a solid defensive team today in Minnesota and this time around, The Vikings get them at home.
Let's take a look at this line. When these two teams met on a Thursday Night earlier in the year, it was a short week and QB Teddy Bridgewater was unable to play due to injury. The Packers were a 9.5 point favorite at home. Now, this Sunday in Minnesota, with Bridgewater, on a traditional week, we're going to make The Packers an even bigger favorite at -10?? The books know that the public will bet The Packers at just about any number right now and they are already doing so nearly 85% of the time for this game, thus the number has to be elevated in an effort to draw equal action on both sides, as is the intention for the books. The look ahead line on this game when they came out this Summer, was The Packers -4.5. My guess was this line would be -6.5 or -7 and here we are getting double digits.
As for the situation, once again, similar to The Patriots, The Packers have scored 42-or more points in two straight games and when these such teams go out on the road for their next game, they are 5-and-11 ATS. The Vikings are 11-and-1 ATS as an underdog off an away game versus a team off a home game.. and they are 8-and-1 ATS in this series when catching more than 3-points off of a loss when The Packers come in off of a SU win.
Too many points, Green Bay's stock is too high right now in terms of the line, and this is a division game with the home team getting doubles. Oh, and did we mention that "SuperBowl Preview" for The Packers against New England next week? Vikings come to play to today while Green Bay packs it in.
Added note here.. on Friday this line has come down to as low as +7.5 - my numbers still say go but there are still plenty of 9's and 9.5's out there. Shop wisely. My guess is that 7.5 may be rock bottom, possibly 7 but I highly doubt it will get under a touchdown.
Bob Balfe
Chargers -6
The Chargers had a ton off running backs out and now that they are back in the lineup this offense can start being 2 dimensional and start spreading the field. It was very impressive what St. Louis did against Denver, but that was in a dome and outside they are a totally different team. San Diego is a much better football team and should win and cover the spread. Take the Chargers.
Dave Essler
Texans -1
Analysis: Houston has owned the Bengals, but this was an easy call for me. We know the Saints aren't what they were, so although I have to credit Cincinnati for winning handily in New Orleans, they're still the Bengals. The angle I really like here is Mallet. Obviously the team has responded, and they're getting Clowney more healthy as time goes by. But Mallet is a product of several years in New England, and he didn't learn "nothing", as others like Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer didn't. Plus, he's familiar with the "system", the same "system" that Bill O'Brien helped run in New England for five years. When in doubt, although there was none in this game, go with the better coach, QB, and defense, and Houston has all three and is at home.
John Ryan
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Miami Dolphins +6½
The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I had the Rams last week and called the upset win. This was not an aberration or a mirage for Denver fans. Denver is banged up on both sides of the ball with many of the injuries at important skill positions. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play on any team (MIAMI) that is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG, and after 8+ games have been played. Miami will be able to contain the Denver ground attack without the use of a safety filling the 'A' gaps. I expect the unit that ranks 8th allowing just 95 rushing yards per game to keep Denver under 100. In past games, Miami is 7-3 ATS over the L3 seasons when allowing between 75 and 100 rushing yards. Tannehill is quietly becoming on of the best QBs completing better than 70% of his passes L3 games. The combination of RB Lamar Miller and slot receiver Jarvis Landry will limit the pass rushing excellence of Ware and OLB Von Miller.
Red Dog Sports
Washington +9
San Francisco plays Seattle next week and should be looking ahead to the Seahawks. Washington has played poorly lately but they are in the role of more than a touchdown underdog.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
We backed the Bengals last week in their outright win at New Orleans, and while a portion of that selection had to do with the Saints being vastly overrated, we really believed Cincy has undervalued after that horrible showing on Thursday Night Football against the Browns. The truth is, the Bengals have played very well this year - losing against solid teams in New England and the Colts and staying unbeaten against every one else, but the public perception of this team is much different.
Bengals still being undervalued by the linesmaker and we'll back them on the road against a Houston team has gone south after a fast start, losing four of their last six games overall. Houston upset the Browns last week thanks to a great game on the ground, but they won't have that luxury in this game as the Bengals will play to stop the run first and force an inexperienced Ryan Mallet to beat them through the air. Houston is just 2-10 ATS after a road game, and we'll back the better team to win Sunday!
Triple Threat Sports
Detroit (+) over New England
Far be it from me to get fully in front of the Patriot train, as we do think New England wins this one straight up, but the Lions have the advantage of an athletic LB corps to cover Gronkowski, a coach in Caldwell that knows the Patriots very well, and a penchant for playing close games, a trait that serves a big underdog well. Finally, note that while teams off back to back to back 21+ wins are 11-3 SU since 2000, they have covered only six of those games. We will take the points here.
Nelly
Jacksonville Jaguars + over Indianapolis Colts
Last week's lopsided home loss to New England had to be a huge blow to the psyche of the Colts, clearly looking like a second tier team in the AFC. Indianapolis should be in great shape in the AFC South still but this could be a tougher than expected division game with a rested Jaguars team that has shown positive signs in recent games with improvement on both sides of the ball the last four games despite a tough schedule. The Colts were up 30-0 at the half in the first meeting but this time should be closer as this is a banged up Colts squad with big questions in the running game and a defense that has allowed 7.0 yards per play over the last three games. Over the last six games Jacksonville is just 1-5 but with only a -30 point differential and they have not been out-gained by more than 66 yards in five straight games despite playing a schedule that includes four teams with winning records in that span. NFL underdogs of 14 points or more are on a 12-4 ATS run going back to 2011 and this game is not deserving of the largest spread of the season as this is a favorable spot for Jacksonville off a bye week and catching the Colts off a huge game.
Richard Witt
Cincinnati Bengals +2
Like Cincy's undeniably impressive levels of sheer physical talent, against the Texans off but a single substantive effort behind young QB Ryan Mallett. Being the underdog clearly aids Andy Dalton's current mindset, and when on their best behavior, the Bengals are a tough out for virtually any AFC side to deal with.
The Real Animal
Miami +6.5
I think Miami is a very tough team to blowout. The Dolphins have covered four of five after narrowly getting beat by Aaron Rodgers at the buzzer on October The Dolphins have allowed 20 or less points in five straight and 29 total points in their last three games. Granted, Peyton wasn’t on the other side of scrimmage but nevertheless the Broncos only scored seven points last week and they are hurting offensively. Montee Ball and Ronny Hillman are both out. That means its C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson in the backfield. Emmanuel Sanders will now play but who knows for long after the concussion. Julius Thomas is slowed by an ankle injury and his status is iffy. Denver might have been fatigued last week laying their third consecutive road game. But they still put up 41 at Oakland two weeks ago. That looks more impressive after watching KC struggle there on Thursday. The Miami offense has been better of late producing 22 or more in 5/6. But it does bother me that Denver is 2-0 ATS off a loss this year. Plus the Miami offensive line will still have issues containing Ware and Miller. Free pick though is Miami plus the points. If Denver hadn’t lost straight-up last week Miami would have been a premium play.