SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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MIAMI +5 over CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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One always has to be aware of situational betting and in terms of that, this might be the best situational wager of the season. Forget the X’s and O’s here. You don’t need us, marble mouth Shannon Sharpe, Dan Marino or Terry Bradshaw to inform you that the Carolina Panthers are for real and that they’re vastly superior to the Dolphins. That said, it is virtually impossible to maintain high intensity levels throughout an entire season and for the Panthers, playing this game in Miami is akin to playing an exhibition game after winning the Super Bowl. After losing in Arizona way back in Week 5, the Panthers have reeled off six wins in a row. Two weeks ago, Carolina went into San Francisco and defeated the 49ers 10-9. On Monday night, the Panthers hosted their first Monday Night Football game in five years against the Patriots. The city was jacked up and so too were the Panthers. Carolina played their hearts out for 60 minutes. Every player on that team played like it was life or death. Every hit, every tackle, every completed pass, every broken up pass and every score or prevention was celebrated at an extremely high level. There is no possible way that the Panthers bring that same intensity level on the road with them this week. In fact, the Panthers figure to bring a fraction of that level here after six straight wins and consecutive victories over San Fran and New England. Upsets happen in sports all the time and they occur when the superior team takes the inferior team lightly after a big win and intensity levels are way down. The Panthers and the city are still gloating after Monday’s huge performance that came right down to the final play. Carolina pays the price here. We’re calling the Dolphins outright but will take a little insurance with the points being offered.
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CLEVELAND -1 over PittsburghFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If the Browns have any chance to stay in the race they must beat Pittsburgh and Jacksonville in back-to-back home games to reach .500. They have a young, emerging defense with an offense that has big holes to fill but Jason Campbell has looked very comfortable out there since taking over. Campbell has passed for around 250 or more yards in all his starts so far. At home the Browns have taken down the Bengals, Bills and Ravens and it would be of no surprise adding these Steelers to that list in a favorable spot.
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Misery loves company and we mention that because the Steelers travel to Baltimore next week on Thanksgiving Thursday with an opportunity to make life just as miserable for their most hated rival. That featured game on Thursday night likely has the Steelers a little out of focus for this one. Even at their very best, the Steelers would be in trouble here. The Steelers aren’t going to the playoffs. They know it and we know it and now this one essentially serves as an elimination match. Nobody’s coming back from 4-7, not even in this slow-speed chase. The Steelers have a little momentum, a capable quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger and little else. They’re a mid-pack defense that doesn’t register many turnovers or sacks. The Steelers are a great organization saddled with a declining team and salary-cap issues. Finishing 7-9 or 8-8 only delays the inevitable and denies them of a high draft pick to help start the rebuild. Pittsburgh has one road win in five games. They were actually very fortunate to win last week after Detroit’s HC, Jim Schwartz decided to fake a short FG attempt that would have put the Lions up 7 in the dying minutes. The Steelers have already lost to Tennessee, Minnesota and Oakland, they were buried by Chicago and New England and with Baltimore up next on Thursday, they once again become a very beatable club.
N.Y. GIANTS -2½ over Dallas
Isn’t this the exact same time every year that the Giants come on and the Cowboys fade away? This week we’ll see if the G-Men’s four-game winning streak was legit. New York’s four wins have come in Philly the week that Matt Barkley played and Nick Foles was out, plus three home games against the Vikings, Raiders and the injury-ravaged version of the Packers. The sad state of the NFC East has the Giants in contention for the division with only a 4-6 record. A loss here says the wins were just a function of the schedule and luck but there are things about the Giants we should not ignore. Granted the Giants have hosted some bad teams, but they have only allowed four passing scores at home this year and that includes facing Big Bro Peyton (307, 2 TD). The Giants secondary has improved since their rocky start to the season and their offense is back to form. The rushing defense is top ten now, as they have allowed only three rushing scores in the last nine games. Freezing cold temperatures in New York gives the Giants an even bigger edge here.
There is no fix for a bad defense. Prior to its bye, Dallas was clobbered two weeks ago on Sunday night in New Orleans by a score of 49-17. The last time a Dallas tape looked as it bad as it did that Sunday night, Abraham Zapruder was filming it. The Cowboys rank as the worst defense against quarterbacks and running backs. They have already allowed five quarterbacks to throw for more than 390 yards including Eli Manning in the first meeting. On the road, Dallas has allowed seven touchdowns to running backs over the last TWO ROAD GAMES. The Giants may not be quite as good as their recent winning streak suggests but the Cowboys defense has been that bad and it gets worse when the ‘Boys travel. We can usually expect a rebound from a team that gets humiliated their last time out but in the Cowboys case, we’re not buying it. This is a badly coached team with no heart, no guts and absolutely no defense.
Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TennesseeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders almost never win back to back games. Seriously. They won last week, 28-23 over hapless Houston, but the Silver and Black are 0-3 straight up off their previous three SU victories this season and have lost those games by an average margin of nearly three touchdowns per game. Last time in this scenario resulted in a 49-20 home loss to Philadelphia where Eagles Nick Foles matched a NFL record w/ 7 TD passes. Over the last two years, Oakland has strung B2B wins together only one time, last year beating Jacksonville and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. I don't see Matt McGloin leading this team to victory two weeks in a row.
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The Titans have lost 5 of 6 to fall off the playoff pace, but a win here would get them right back in the thick of things as the middle of the AFC is very weak. Tennessee too has a backup QB w/ Ryan Fitzpatrick. Despite his struggles, it's easy to forget that they led the Colts 14-0 last week. Having not played since Thursday the previous week, the Titans have the scheduling edge. I don't know how Oakland has gotten to four wins. They won't add to that total Sunday.
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis went into the bye with a boatload of positive momentum, breaking out with a 30 point win at Indy. But that effort didn’t come in a vacuum.
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Here’s an excerpt from what I wrote about the Rams prior to that ballgame:
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“St Louis lost at home to Tennessee last week, but the Rams showed numerous positive signs in that game prior to the defeat. The Rams ran the football effectively all afternoon for the second straight week against a solid stop unit, with Zac Stacy bulling his way to another 100+ yard game on the ground. The much maligned offensive line blew open holes for Stacy, and gave Kellen Clemens solid protection.
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“Clemens was accurate and played mostly mistake free football; all you can ask from a backup QB. They scored touchdowns, not settling for field goals. Their pass rush was tremendous, forcing Jake Locker into numerous poor throws while notching four sacks. And coming off a disheartening loss on Monday Night, the Rams bounced back positively from adversity on several occasions, immediately responding to Tennessee touchdowns with TD drives of their own.”
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This Rams team is better than their 4-6 record would indicate. Meanwhile, the Bears are weaker than their 6-4 record would indicate, as clearly evidenced by their dismal 2-7-1 ATS mark, with only a single pointspread cover since September. Their offense lacks explosiveness with Josh McCown and their defense is a shell of what it was to open the season thanks to a bevy of key injuries. Chicago stole a win they probably didn’t deserve last week. I’m not expecting that to happen two weeks in a row!
Sean Murphy
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Minnesota vs. Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay
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You won't find a much stronger motivational spot for the Packers, who are coming off extremely rare back-to-back losses at Lambeau Field, and three consecutive defeats overall (they lost to the Giants on the road last Sunday).
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The Vikings look like the perfect opponent to take their frustrations out on, as Minnesota stays on the road for the second straight week after getting leveled in Seattle last Sunday.
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Yes, the Packers are a much different team without Aaron Rodgers at the helm, but Scott Tolzien has stepped in and done some good things playing in a rather large shadow. After learning on the fly over the last two games, I look for Tolzien to step up with a big performance in front of the Lambeau faithful on Sunday.
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Facing a defense like the Vikings will help. Minnesota is giving up 5.8 yards per play this season, and that number has gotten worse lately, rising to 6.1 ypp over its last three contests.
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After hanging tough in back-to-back games against the Cowboys and Redskins (and winning the latter), we saw the bottom fall out for the Vikes last Sunday in Seattle. This is quite simply a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, as they'll undoubtedly get the reeling Packers best shot on Sunday.
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Green Bay realizes the importance of regaining its footing here before heading to Detroit for a tough Thanksgiving Day matchup. The Packers are hoping that Aaron Rodgers could return for that one, but regardless, a decisive win here would make them feel an awful lot better, heading in above .500 rather than below.
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Look for a big game from Tolzien, Eddie Lacy, and the Packers offense, as they cruise to a key division win over a down-trodden Vikings squad that will just be looking forward to heading back home.
Jimmy Boyd
Carolina Panthers -4½
The Carolina Panthers are easily the hottest team in the NFL right now. They are riding a six game win streak that includes victories over New England and San Francisco. This week they will face a Dolphins team that is just 5-5 on the year, and has a locker room surrounded in controversy. The Dolphins managed to squeak by an overrated Chargers team, and they gave the Tampa Bay Buccaneers their first win of the season.
Carolina makes a strong argument for having the best defense in the NFL. They have held opponents to 13.5 points per game overall, and are allowing just 15.6 points per game when playing on the road. Carolina specializes in forcing turnovers, while the offense does a great job of avoiding them. The Panthers have forced two or more turnovers in six of their last seven games. The offense has committed just four turnovers in their last six games combined. I think Carolina once again dominates the turnover margin, and they should pick up a big win on the road over Miami.
GamePlan
Cowboys vs. Giants
Play: Under 45
Weather is going to be cold and windy. Look for both teams to establish the ground game. Dallas will make adjustments to stop Victor Cruz and the Giants defense has played much better the last 4 games. Take the under as a free pick.
Rocky Sheridan
Broncos vs. Patriots
Play: Over 53
In this highly anticipated matchup between what is arguably the Top 2 teams in the NFL this season, Denver and New England will have their high powered offenses on display Sunday Night. My Week #12 Free Play Selection is going OVER the Total in this Match Up. Both teams have some Very Solid Trends to the Over in this match up.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in November. Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in Week 12. Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 40-18-1 in Patriots last 59 games on fieldturf. Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 9-2-1 in Broncos last 12 games following a ATS win. Over is 22-5 in Broncos last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 13-3-1 in Broncos last 17 games on field turf. Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games. Over is 15-5-1 in Broncos last 21 vs. AFC.
Rob Vinciletti
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins +5
The Dolphins have won and covered every meeting in this series. Carolina fits a couple of bounce systems here in this game off their big Monday night home win over the Patriots. We want to play against favorites of 3 or more that won 6 straight games as these teams have failed to cover 14 of 20 times since the early 70/s. The Panthers are 0-8 ats as a non division road favorite off a win and cover. Miami has covered 11 of 12 times as a non division dog of 9.5 or less. Home dogs in non division games off a home dog win have covered 22 of 33 if they are getting less than 5 points. With most of the situations favoring Miami we will look for the Dolphins to at the very least get the spread win. On Sunday end the week big with a Rare 6* 29-0 Power System Play leading a solid card that has 3 Early plays one a 5* Dominator side and the 96% Sunday night Football AFC Showdown match which is rated at 5*. We also have a Perfect NBA Totals systems and NCAAB Which have been hot. Saturday card cashes big again led by Game of the Year winner on Ok. St and 6* Fresno. Jump on and ma
Jack Jones
New England Patriots +2½
Any time the Patriots are coming off a loss, it’s certainly worth a look to back them. That’s because they are arguably the most well-coached team in the league, and they do not take losing lightly. That is evident by the fact that Bill Belichick is 37-21 against the spread after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of New England. Also, Belichick is 40-20 against the number as an underdog as the coach of the Patriots. New England has won each of its last five games following a loss.
You can bet that Tom Brady and company will come back hungry in this one. Brady and the offense have gotten on track over their past two contests. After throwing for 432 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-31 win at Pittsburgh, Brady completed 29 of 40 passes for 296 yards and a score against arguably the best defense in the league in the Panthers last week. Those are two great defenses he torched, and he should have another big game against a Denver defense that ranks 28th against the pass at 279.1 yards per game.
Brady and New England have simply owned Peyton Manning wherever he has been. Manning is 2-9 all-time on the road against New England, including 2-7 in visits against Brady. Brady has 12 touchdowns and one interception in his last five games against Denver. Manning has thrown five interceptions in his last three games against New England. In last year’s 31-21 win over the Broncos, Brady didn’t have to do too much as the Patriots rushed for 251 yards in the win.
This is a much bigger game for the Patriots than it is for the Broncos. They are fighting to get the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Denver leads them by two games for the top seed. Even if the Broncos lose, they can win next week against the Chiefs and still hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That's why I fully expect New England to play with more of a sense of urgency in this one than the Broncos.
New England is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this season. It is scoring 29.6 points and giving up just 17.6 points, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game at Gillete Stadium. It's one thing for the Patriots to be an underdog on the road, it's another thing to see them as a dog at home. In fact, they have not been a home underdog since 2005, so there is certainly some value here given their track record at home.
New England is 16-5 against the spread in its last 21 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. The Patriots are 20-8 against the number in their last 28 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 6-0 against the number vs. AFC West opponents over the past three seasons. New England is 30-12-1 against the spread in its last 43 games following a loss. The Broncos are 8-18 against the number in their last 26 road games vs. at team with a winning home record. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
Dave Price
San Diego Chargers +4.5
Right away, you have to like the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that carry a win percentage of only 25-40% are 95-50 ATS since 1983 if they check in off a road loss. The Chiefs return home where they are 5-0 after losing for the first time this season last week in Denver. While they have taken care of business at Arrowhead, we can't ignore that they are on a 1-8 ATS skid at home when laying 7.0 points or fewer. They have lost by an average score of 20.8 to 15.2 in this situation. The Chiefs have been in this situation four times this season and have just the one cover, a 31-7 win over the Giants as a three-point favorite. They only defeated the Cowboys by one as a three-point favorite, the Texans by one as a 6.5-point favorite and the Browns by six as a seven-point favorite in the other three instances. The Chiefs have had their share of struggles against San Diego. They have lost two straight, four of five and nine of 11 in the series recently. We'll take the points.
Joseph D'Amico
Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3
The line is 'Zona-3, Total 45. This game opened -1 1/2 and actually hit -1 for a bit but has climbed the past two days. Indy isn't looking as immortal as they did only a month ago. They were one of the best teams in football at 1st quarter scoring and now over their L3 games, they have been outscored, 35-0 in the opening 15 minutes. Arizona has rattled off 3 straight wins, posting 27 PPG in each. If Indy falls behind, the speedy and crafty Cardinals secondary can contain Luck. Not to mention that Arizona HC, Bruce Arians was the Colts OC last season. Now as long as Andrew Luck is playing, the Colts have a shot but the Cards have 22 takeaways and are playing at home. I lean towards Arizona here.
Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cowboys / Giants Over 44.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants have not been overly impressive in winning four straight games but following their 0-6 start the G-men find themselves still in contention in the weak NFC East. Dallas is 5-5 and just a half game behind Division leader Philly. These teams opened the season with Dallas winning a wild 36-31 shootout in which the Giants committed 6 turnovers yet still were in position to win in the final minutes. High scoring games have been the norm in this series. Since 2009 7 of 9 meetings have produced at least 53 total points. Both teams have proven quarterbacks in Tony Romo and Eli Manning with big play receivers and vulnerable defenses.
Charlie Scott
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
Some old school handicapping theory still apply and Double Digit Dogs in the NFL is 1 of them. Can't trust the Texans in this role. While JAX doesn't have many wins, they haven't quit yet and for the most part still play hard for their Coach, the same can't be said for the Texans !
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Northern Iowa +5 over MarylandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game will be played at the University of the Virgin Islands Sports and Fitness Center. We’re tempted to play the Panthers straight up because they have just as good a chance of winning as the Terps but the five points being offered are too juicy to pass up. Northern Iowa has consistently been one of the better programs in the MVC, reaching at least some form of postseason tournament every season since 2009. They are once again contenders to win the Missouri Valley but a slow start has them underpriced here. The Panthers are just 2-2 with losses against Ohio and George Mason. However, one thing that hasn’t changed is that NIU still plays outstanding defense. The Panthers get solid guard play from junior Deon Mitchell and they have a strong inside presence in junior forward, Seth Tuttle.
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The Terrapins must overcome several key losses from last season with none being more important than lottery pick center Alex Len. Then there’s the issue of point guard play or lack thereof. Maryland has asked Dez Wells to switch to point guard and it’s not working out. Wells has openly stated he’s not comfortable and looked completely out of place defensively in a recent home loss to Oklahoma State. In that game, Maryland lost at home and allowed 90 points against. Maryland opened the year with a strong game against #18 UConn in which they lost by a single point but that was a case of the Huskies playing poorly as oppose to the Terps playing great. Maryland’s two wins this season in four tries came against Marist and Abilene Christian. The Terps failed to score more than 68 points against either one of those two dregs. Early season injuries have forced the Terps into doing things they did not anticipate having to adjust to this early in the season. Maryland is a team that is scrambling right now and a well-coached and disciplined team like the Panthers figure to take full advantage. Don’t be afraid to play the Panthers outright in this one but we’ll endorse taking the points.
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DAVE COKIN
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
PLAY: GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5
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Aaron Rodgers won’t win the NFL version of the MVP Award this season. But the truth about just how important he is to the Green Bay Packers is pretty obvious right about now. With Rodgers in the lineup, the Packers are one the better teams in the league. Without him, they’re barely average.
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The bad news for the Packers is that they’re still without Rodgers, and if he’s not back soon, Green Bay will be putting away the equipment at the end of the regular season. The good news is that today’s game is one the Packers can and should win regardless of who’s under center.
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Minnesota is going nowhere this season, so it’s likely that they will be treating this game with their rivals as their own kind of playoff game. But the Vikings are just not very good, and while they’re going to show some fight today, I’m not sold they can win this contest.
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This is a must win game for Green Bay. While it’s conceivable they could lost and still be only one game out of the division lead, they would still be trailing two teams and would also be in less than ideal shape for a wild card. The simply cannot afford to lose to one of the league’s weakest entries.
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The Vikings sitting at 2-8 is no fluke. They’re owners of the fourth worst point differential in the league. Adrian Peterson is their offense, and he’s laboring through injuries and the burden of being the only real playmaker on this squad. Add that to the fact that Minnesota has surrendered more points than any team in the league, and the bad bottom line is easy to comprehend.
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The task for emergency starting Packers QB Scott Tolzien is simple enough. Don’t screw up the game, keep it simple and stop throwing the ball to the wrong team. That’s easier said than done for a very inexperienced starter whose credentials are questionable. But the Vikings are weak enough defensively so that even Tolzien should be able to function at a reasonable level today.
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From a metrics standpoint, this game shapes up as pretty close with Rodgers still absent. But this is also about taking a team that knows how to win football games against one that seemingly can’t do so this season. I’m siding with the Packers to notch the vital win and cover.