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Indianapolis / Arizona Over 44FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fourteen of the last 15 non-conference games in the NFL have gone over the total and for the season non-conference games have gone over at an alarming rate of 76% (38-12). The Colts have gone over the total in four straight games and the Arizona offense is also clicking, scoring 20 points or more in seven straight games and 27 or more in each of their last four games. Let’s follow all of these compelling trends and call for a high-scoring affair in the desert.
Bob Balfe
Chicago Bears +1.5
The Rams went into Indy and got a big win so now people want to back them as favorites? The Colts were dealing with major issues at receiver. The Bears have the opposite problem. This team had 6'5 guys all across the board that are matchup nightmares for smaller cornerbacks. Josh McCown has found his game and is a very capable backup. The Bears will win this game by being too physical. Take Chicago.
Sam Martin
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The linesmakers haven't learned their lesson yet - installing Houston as a big 10-point home favorite despite the Texans already losing outright as big home favorites of 9.5 points (vs. St. Louis) and 10.5 points (vs. Oakland last week). Those two losses both came in the midst of this current eight-game losing streak, and while Houston very well may win this game outright, we don't believe they can win this game by double-digits.
Jacksonville has been far more competitive the past few weeks, even scoring an outright win at Tennessee as a big 11.5-point underdog. And while there's not much statistically to be happy about if you are a Jags fan, they are getting a massive amount of points here against a Texans team that seems to find new ways to shoot themselves in the foot each week. Houston just 2-8 against the spread this season including a perfect 0-5 ATS here at home, and they are unworthy of laying this big number.
Joe Gavazzi
Kansas City -3½
It’s not very often that you find a 9-1 SU team receiving so little love, yet that is exactly what happened after the Chiefs lost to the first winning team they faced 27-17. With the rematch scheduled for next week, popular opinion has sided with a San Diego team has owned the Chiefs of late, winning 9/11 recent meetings. But the KC victories have never been pretty this season; they are doing it with a defense that allows just 14 PPG, and a team that takes care of the football behind QB Smith, leading to a +15 net TO margin, easily the best in the NFL. Chargers are in a tough situation, making their 6th trip in 12 weeks of at least two hours east. This, following an Eastern Time zone game in Miami. It has started to show, as they enter today on an 0-3 SU ATS slide, dropping to 4-6 SU. Last week, they outrushed Miami 154-104, were even in the TOs, but still lost the game. This is exactly the type of team on whom the Chiefs have been getting fat all season long. Did I mention that the Chargers’ 6.7 defensive yards per play remains the worst in the NFL? Really? A 9-1 SU team as only 4 point home favorite against a 4-6 SU visitor?
Arizona -1
The Colts are the other team who played the previous Thursday night, a 12-8 ATS edge. But that victory combined with the Tennessee loss has opened up a 3 game lead in the division for the Colts. At this point in the season, that has historically led to underperformance from the division leading team. There's no doubt the Colts have played their best away from home; for the year, they are 4-1 ATS covering by 48 net points, with a +4 net turnover margin. First year Arizona HC Arians, last year's Indy head coach, knows this team well. Arizona is a bit of a surprise team this season on runs of 5-2 and 3-0 SU, with only recent losses to San Francisco and Seattle. Look for them to carry the momentum of that 3 game winning streak after they outgained the Jags last week 416-274, combining that yardage edge with +2 net TOs for a 27-14 victory. Is Arizona this year's team of destiny?
Brady Kannon
Miami +4.5
I like this Carolina Panthers team and Cam Newton has been great to watch. They could be the team that nobody wants to face come playoff time.. but now riding a 6-game winning streak with huge victories most recently over The 49'ers and The Patriots, we feel there is some definite line value in favor of the underdog today. Couple this with the fact that Miami is now in its 3rd game since the Incognito mess.. time heals all wounds and our reports say that this locker room is on board again.. as evidenced by an outright win as an underdog last week over The Chargers. The Dolphins are 11-and-1 ATS as non division underdogs when getting less than 10-points. The Panthers are 0-and-8 SUATS as non division road favorites off of a SUATS win. With some momentum brewing in South Beach and their spirits on the rise going against what looks to be a team ready for a letdown, we're taking the points with The Dolphins today.
Steve Merril
Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Pick: Over
Indianapolis is 4-0 to the Over their last four games and Arizona is 4-1 to the Over their last five games. That’s a combined 8-1 to the Over for these teams in their last nine games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis bounced back with a win at Tennessee after getting embarrassed by 30 points (38-8) at home to the Rams. The Colts’ offense has scored 27 points or more in three of their last four games. Indianapolis has also gone Over the total in four straight games and we expect another high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Arizona. The Colts’ offense has been strong on the road this season as they are averaging 26 points per game away from home; they’ve scored 27 points or more in four of their five road games. Arizona’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they are taking a major step-up here after facing the weak offenses of the Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars over the last three games.
Arizona’s offense is in good current form right now. The Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in six consecutive games; 27 points in each of their last three games. QB Carson Palmer has completed 71.8% (79 of his last 110 passes) for 952 yards on an incredible 8.7 yards per pass attempt with a 7/2 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinals’ offense will have continued success against a weak Indianapolis defense that allows 5.8 yards per play (#25) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (#27). This game also has an interesting dynamic to it with Arizona HC Bruce Arians facing the Colts, a team he led to the playoffs last season while HC Chuck Pagano was sick. Indianapolis is 4-0 to the Over their last four games and Arizona is 4-1 to the Over their last five games. That’s a combined 8-1 to the Over for these teams in their last nine games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.
John Ryan
Chargers at Chiefs
Prediction: Over
The simulator shows a high probability that 45 or more points will be scored in this game. Chargers are coming off a 20-16 loss to Miami in a game they were favored by three points. At 4-6, this is a 'must win' situation so I fully expect the Charger offense to be opened up and with a scheme designed to attack the KC defense. KC matched a season low scoring 17 points in their 27-17 loss at Denver last week. This team may be 9-1, but they have defeated only one team with a winning record based on the current standings. Only Dallas at 5-5 is a team they defeated 17-16 in Week 2 and 6-5 Philadelphia 26-16 in Week 3. Note too that these two teams are in the NFC East, which is the weakest division in the NFL. Chargers are 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 'OVER' mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play 'OVER' with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) that is off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' and with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game. Of the 29 winning plays, 21 of them went 'over' by 7 or more points. Take the 'OVER'.
Freddy Wills
Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3
It's Bruce Arians turn to make a statement after being the interim coach for the Colts last year. The Colts are not the same team as last year and they are going to have a tough time on the road down the stretch. If the Colts get behind again today like they have in the past they won't be coming back. That's exactly what I'm predicting will happen to the Colts who seem to step up against the elite and play poorly against the middle of the road teams. The Cardinals secondary is elite and love to turn opponents over. Andrew Luck is going to have to pass to win this game in a come back effort that just won't happen in the desert.
Rickie Robbins
Panthers vs. Dolphins
Play: Under 41
The Carolina Panthers are on a roll right now, and Carolina will head to Miami on Sunday in hopes of avoiding the always dreaded trap game.
The Miami Dolphins started off the season hot, but since the Dolphins have come back down a bit. Miami has dropped three out of their last five games, including a loss last week to the San Diego Chargers, in Miami 20-16. The Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt in the AFC, but it’s tight, so at this point every game for Miami matters. The Dolphins have a solid defense, and one of the better young quarterbacks in the game in Ryan Tannehill, but Miami is struggling putting it all together right now. One area the Dolphins really do need to improve upon is their ground game. Miami is currently averaging just 88.7 yards per game, and that is putting way too much pressure on their signal caller and the passing attack. That being the case, the Panthers are excellent against the run, so this week might be tough sledding for them.
The Carolina Panthers head to Miami on Sunday, and right now the Panthers have to be feeling invincible. Carolina has won six in a row heading into Sunday’s match up with the Dolphins, including wins over the Niners and the Patriots, each in the past two weeks. Cam Newton is really starting to come into his own in this league. What’s impressive about that is that Newton is not just running the spread attack he was when he first got to Carolina, but the Panthers are running a much more conventional NFL offense right now, and Newton is shining in it. One thing helping Newton and the passing game out, is their strong running attack. The Panthers are ranked 10th in the league currently, averaging 125.3 yards per game on the ground. That, combined with their stifling defense, and the Panthers are looking to be a real tough out late in the season.
The Carolina Panthers are a very solid 7-3 against the spread on the year, and when playing as a favorite, the Panthers are doing well, going 4-2 ATS on the season. On the road, the Panthers are also solid, going 3-2 ATS.
The Miami Dolphins are 5-5 against the spread on the year, and when playing as an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS. Miami is also in the black when playing at home, going 3-2 against the spread this season.
My play here is going to be on the under. I am tempted to take the Dolphins as this looks to be a bad spot for the Panthers, but I just can’t trust this Miami team.
Miami will have trouble putting points on the board against this defense, and the Dolphins are solid defensively in their own right which should contain this Panthers offense, especially considering they are on a short week.
Red Dog Sports
North Carolina vs. Louisville
Play: North Carolina +10
Louisville won the national title last year. They return several players like Russ Smith and Luke Hancock. UNC is without PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald but do have Marcus Paige, who made 6 3-pointers yesterday and McAdoo inside as well as Brice Johnson who scored double digits yesterday. There will be less pressure on the Tar Heels being underdogs in this game being played at the Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, Ct.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Kansas City Under 43: The Chiefs are on a 11-2 Under in their last 13 games, while their last 16 vs the AFC West has gone 13-2-1 to the Under, plus we also note that AFC West divisional home favs of less than 7, with an OU line of less than 47 has gone 10-0-1 to the Under the last 5 years. The Charger offense has not been all that great this year. Last week they were held to just 16 points vs a tough Miami defense, and prior to that game they had scored just 20.8 ppg vs some bad defenses that include Denver, Jacksonville, Indy and Washington. Rivers has been better than past year but it hasnt translated into that many more points. I don't see that changing vs this tough KC defense that is 12th in the leagie in total defense, 9th vs the pass and 2nd in points allowed at 13.8 ppg. The Chiefs offense is not explosive and they are more about the run, which will eat clock. They are also a conservative offense and the Bolts defense is much better vs the run than the pass. Overall the Chargers play a bend but don't break defense as they are 27th in yards allowed, but 11th in points allowed at 22.2 ppg. This game will feature allot of running and defense and conservative calls and all that should leed to a game in the low 30's at best.
3 UNIT PLAYS
ST LOUIS -1.5 over Chicago: The Chicago offense has looked solid with McCown under center, but I feel that an underrated St Louis pass rush will put enough pressure on Mccown so that he makes some crucial mistakes. On the other side we have a St Louis run game that has been very good behind rookie Zac Stacy and they ill look to pound away at a very bad Chicago run defense, which will in turn open up some throwing lanes for Clemmons to hit some plays downfield. St Louis is off a bye week and that extra prep time should have them ready to face the Bears in this one. We Also note that Fisher is 11-3 ATS vs teams with a winning pct of .600 or better. The St Louis ground game will wear the bears out as they pull away in the 4th.
Detroit/ Tampa Bay Over 48.5: I see this as a fun one. Tampa Bay is playing better on offenses of late and Schiano is making it more fun for them, but calling trick plays and just going all out to win games. Glennon is getting better under center and he has some good weapons to throw to and they will be facing a Detroit defense that is 25th overall, 30th vs the pass in 22nd in points allowed, giving up 26.3 ppg. On offense the Lions are one of the best in the league, ranking 4th overall and 3rd in passing. The Detroit offense really kicks in high gear on their home field, where the have averaged 478.3 ypg and 32.3 ppg. The Tampa Offense has scored just 16.8 ppg on the road this year, but in their last two road games vs Seattle and Atlanta they did put up 24 and 23 points and getting that much out of them here should leave us golden. The Bucs have allowed 24.8 ppg on the road/ but I clearly expect 28+ in this one from Detroit. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER as dogs of more than 7 and 6-1-1 OVER vs the NFC North, while Detroit is 5-1 to the OVER before playing Green Bay. Very hard to see less than 50 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Carolina Over 41.5: Miami can't run the ball, so they will have to throw it and either get yards or there will be plenty of clock stoppages. Defensively Miami is one of the worst teams vs the Pass and Cam can throw the ball to and has a solid group of receivers to throw to. The Panthers do put up 21.6 ppg on the rad, while Miami has averaged 22.6 ppg at home. After last week's huge clash with the Pats, if there is going to be a letdown from the Panthers it will come on the defensive side. Both offeneses should have a good day as we get 45+ points in this one.
GREEN BAY -5 over Minnesota: The Packers are in dire need of a win here and Tolzien is getting better and he will be going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Packers still have a solid defense and will shut down the Minnesota offense, on their way to a TD+ win.
1 UNIT PLAY
Jets/ Baltimore Under 39: The Jet offense has really been inconsistent this year and they average just 18.3 ppg overall and 15.2 ppg at home. The Jet offense is mostly about the run and the Ravens play the run well, allowing just 102.7 ypg on the ground, which is 9th in the league. Baltimore also plays great defense at home, where they have allowed just 12.8 ppg. The Ravens have not been very good on offense at home, scoring just 20.3 ppg and their 4 home games overall have averaged just 33.1 ppg. This one will be played in the low 30's at best.
Triple Threat Sports
Bears/Rams Under
Total just jumped off the page at us when we saw the openers, as we had this one pegged at 40. The Rams did score 38 points in their last game, but many of those were giftwrapped by Colts turnovers, and prior to that - in two home games - the team had managed just 30 points in eight quarters. Chicago not a great offense, as while McCown is doing yeoman's work as Cutler's backup, they are just not as explosive without Smokin Jay at the helm. Also, the Chicago defense has been much improved since the bye week, not having allowed more than 21 in the three games since...and those three games were against better offenses than this one. Finally, a look at the numbers shows that teams are 15-24 to the Under after a bye if they scored 35 or more in the game before the rest, and also that last year - with both starting QB's playing - these teams played and combined for just 29 points.
The Duke's Sports
Tampa Bay +9.5
Tampa Bay/Detroit 1:05: TB has gained winning momentum after a difficult go of it. The Bucs have covered three straight. They have a recent tendency to deliver off a SU win under Schiano at 4-0-1 ATS. The pass game is starting to click under rookie QB Glennon and he should be able to expose a pass defense ranked 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, going against the Lions is always a concern with WR Calvin Johnson healthy; however, TB CB Revis should be up to the task; after all, he held Johnson to 1 catch for 13 yards the last time he had that duty. The demoralized Lions are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30+ the previous week, and they're 1-8 ATS in week 12. Schwartz lost them yet another game a week ago with another bone head decision; pretty soon Detroit will tune him out. The dog in this series is 7-2 ATS while the road team has covered 4 of the last 5. TB has the value here.
John Fina
Detroit Lions -8.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off two straight wins (the Detroit Lions coming off a loss), however, that just gives us a better line in this one as the Detroit Lions are the much superior team. The Buccaneers are a terrible team with problems on offense and defense. On offense, the Buccaneers will be going with rookie QB Mike Glennon. While QB Mike Glennon has played okay football as of late, he will find himself in his biggest NFL battle yet as he is going into a very loud dome stadium, in a hard core city (Detroit). Adding to Mike Glennon troubles today is the Lions have a strong pass rush. To say the very least, the Buccaneers will struggle to score. While you should always think twice before laying two scores in an NFL game, this is a solid spot to do so with the Lions. The Lions are coming off a loss (in a game they should of won), and won't take any chances in this one. The Lions offense should have no problem scoring many points, and won't stop for noting as they don't want this one to slip past them like last week. The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings against the Buccaneers, and should once again be able to get the ATS win today. Lay the points! Take the Detroit Lions -8.5!
Tony Mathew
Cleveland Brown -1
We will be the first to admit that the Cleveland Browns have holes on offense. That is very unfortunate as it would of been very exciting to watch this offense all season long if QB Brian Hoyer did not get hurt. While nowhere as good as Brian Hoyer, replacement QB Jason Campbell has looked comfortable out there since taking over. In fact, Jason Campbell has passed for 250 or more yards in all of his starts this season. He should have another solid day against a weak overrated Steelers defense.
On the defensive side, the Cleveland Browns are young and emerging. If they can keep this defensive unit together, with the right coaching staff, it will be exciting to watch this defense in years to come. As for this Sunday, they should be able to hold off a Steelers offense who's only decent player is an ageing Ben Roethlisberger. Don't take this the wrong way, we think Ben Roethlisberger is a solid QB, the only problem is unlike in past seasons, he has no offensive weapons to work with. To make matters worse, their star WR Emmanuel Sanders left last week against the Lions with a foot injury and did not return. So even if he plays this week, he will not be at one hundred percent. This is all very troubling for the Steelers offense, as the Browns do have a very decent secondary and will force the Steelers into quick passes with their fierce pass rush.
This is one of those games that home field advantage means a lot. In fact, the Cleveland Browns (when playing at home) have beaten the Bengals, Bills, and Ravens. As for the Steelers (when playing on the road), they have lost to the Bengals, Vikings, Raiders, and Patriots.
If the Cleveland Browns want any chance at the playoffs, they must win this game vs. the Steelers on Sunday. We see them doing just that!