SPORTS WAGERS
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Pittsburgh -1½ over CLEVELAND
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Are we on Candid Camera? The Steelers have owned the Browns. Actually, everybody has. Pittsburgh has won 16 of 17 against this foe and it has not been less than a 6½-point favorite over the Brownies in their past 9 contests. Cleveland has won three of its past 20 football games. The Browns have been an underdog in every game this year. Pittsburgh has been favored seven times and has been the dog only at Denver, at the Giants and last week to Baltimore. So if this isn’t a gag, why the short price? We’re well aware of the Steelers’ quarterback issues but is veteran Charlie Batch that big of a drop-off from rookie QB Brandon Weeden? We do see improvement in the Browns but they still don’t know how to win.
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Pittsburgh’s offense might have some limitations here but its top ranked defense is facing a Browns team that ranks 28th in total yards. Steelers unlikely to lose consecutive divisional games when the back end is this host and knowing Baltimore is on deck.
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Oakland +8 -110 over CINCINNATI
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The Raiders last win came against the Chiefs. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row and have allowed a combined 135 points. Rarely do NFL teams get blown out every game for a month. These players do have some pride and having the Bengals favored this heavily is embarrassing and insulting. A response is in order.
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You may have to go back to Boomer Esiason days to find the Bengals spotting this many points. That’s not encouraging when you consider that Cincinnati has just four covers in past 18 when giving away any points at all. Oakland is a train wreck but ex-Bengal Carson Palmer is familiar with this foe and he’s certainly going to be jacked up to play them after an acrimonious split. This could be the upset of the week.
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SAN DIEGO -1 -104 over Baltimore
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It’s never comfortable having the Chargers as a ‘Best’ but sometimes the line dictates our recommendation. Baltimore has been living somewhat of a charmed life. Yes, this is a league where wins and losses are all that ultimately matter but that does not exclude us from taking advantage of misperceptions.
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We won’t go through it but the Ravens’ 8-2 mark could easily be around the 4-4 mark right now. This once daunting defence currently ranks 25th in the league and 23rd vs. the pass. Baltimore just played in Pittsburgh, will fly out west for this one and then will play Pittsburgh again. They’ll do that with an injury list that’s as long as Santa’s delivery list. As for the Chargers, there is no denying their unreliable play but they return home after two away against two smoking hot clubs in the Bucs and Broncos. This is too good of a situation to ignore.
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TENNESSEE -4 over Jacksonville
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The Texans thought the Jaguars were a joke so the defense took the day off. The Jags almost made them pay. Instead, all they did was push Warren Moon to the side in the record books and that’s our CFL reference of the week. The Jaguars may have had their best performance of the season but at the end of the day, they still lost and took nearly five quarters to do so. That can be demoralizing. Now the Jags return home where they’re 0-5 this year. Chad Henne will now start for the Jaguars but it’s not like he’s new on the NFL scene. Perhaps he was never afforded a good opportunity to excel but are the Jags any better than the Miami teams he was on? Titans are rested and off their best game of the season. Prefer to side with that.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Buffalo +3 -113 over INDIANAPOLIS
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Not sure if young Colts are mature enough to bounce back from 59-24 trouncing a week ago. The Bills may not win often but they can march up and down the field on most days. Buffalo still averages 30 points per opponent and quietly, the defence is improving. If the AFC East Pats can wallop Indy, Bills should at least stay close.
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Indy is right in the thick of the playoff race. Its over/under win total for the year was 5½ and they’ve already won six times. They’ve accomplished more than expected and now they’ll head down the stretch with higher expectations. Let’s see that they can thrive in that role before spotting points with them. No units risked.
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DENVER -10½ -104 over Kansas City
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Must we? Tough to lay this lumber, on the road, in a division game. But when push comes to shove, would rather be on the hot Denver side than this dreadful Chiefs team. Kansas City has lost six straight. They have reached 16 points only once during that stretch. They continue to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and to compound problems, they are missing three starters. Chiefs’ starting quarterback is a Browns’ reject. Welcome to hell. No units risked.
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Atlanta -1 -105 over TAMPA BAY
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Falcons won last week despite an uncharacteristic five interceptions by QB Matt Ryan. You can bet that Matty Ice will be more careful with the ball this week and that should spell trouble against Tampa’s 32nd ranked pass defense.
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The Bucs are on a four game winning streak and are averaging 34 points a game over the last six weeks. Scoring at a high pace with no defense can get you by and even into the playoffs. However, you can’t keep expecting to put up 35 a game to keep winning and unlike the last two teams the Bucs have defeated, the Bolts and Panthers, the Falcons know how to close out a game. No units risked.
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MIAMI +3 -110 over Seattle
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The Seahawks have one road victory this season to go along with four losses. Now, they’re not only required to win but to do so by a margin. We’re not fond of that at all. The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing prowess of Marshawn Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score some in home games.
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This is really a buy low opportunity, as Miami has lost three straight topped off by last week’s poor showing in Buffalo on Thursday night. Prior to that, a 37-3 beating they took from Tennessee is not easy to forget either. A rebound performance by the Dolphins is more likely than not. Seattle’s off the bye but Fish also on extra rest, which figures to aid them more than visitor making extremely long trek to get here. Seattle continues to prove year after year that they’re not to be trusted when leaving the Northwest. No units risked.
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San Francisco -107 over NEW ORLEANS
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Say what you will about Alex Smith but when Colin Kaepernick was forced to start last week against the Bears, you could see a spring in the 49ers’ step. Coach Jim Harbaugh saw it too and has opted to go with the exciting youngster. San Fran brought down the Bears in short order and were dominant in every facet of the game. Now instead of playing a top defense, they get to go face one at the other end of the spectrum.
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The Saints offense continues to play at an elite level but had this game been played three weeks ago, the Niners would’ve been a four-point choice or more. The Saints’ stock has risen with three straight wins but two of those came against the Eagles and Raiders. The other win was over Atlanta in a game that could’ve gone either way when Atlanta failed to score on a 2nd and goal from the 1-yard line late in the fourth. As a result of those three wins by New Orleans, we get to back a 49ers squad at a deflated price. No units risked.
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ARIZONA -1 -110 over St. Louis
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The Cardinals will have Ryan Lindley, a sixth-round draft pick, make his first NFL start this weekend. Yet, the Cardinals, losers of six straight, are still favoured. What does that tell you? The Rams are winless on the road and they just were punched in the mouth at home by the Jets.
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What is most noteworthy here is the Cardinals recent schedule over the past three weeks that saw them play Green Bay, San Fran and Atlanta. They were in a position to win the latter two. After facing that trio of playoff bound clubs, facing this anemic offense should appear in slow motion for the Cardinals. Remember that 4-0 start? Cardinals get off the mattress here. No units risked.
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N.Y. GIANTS -3 +102 over Green Bay
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Giants had lost two straight prior to their bye. They had also lost their lustre with the betting public and with this past week off, they are somewhat forgotten. This is when they’re at their best. The G-Men were a battered bunch, much like these current Packers, and they needed the break. Expect a strong return against a hurting Green Bay team traveling on consecutive weeks. Eli Manning has shown that he can handle the Packers when they’re healthy. Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores when these teams met in the regular season in 2011 and he passed for 330 yards and three touchdowns in the subsequent playoff meeting.
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The Packers rushing is the worst in the NFL with only two touchdowns scored by a running back all year. No runner has gained more than 65 yards since Benson left and while James Starks was given 25 carries last week, he only gained 74 yards. A one-dimensional offense against what should be a refocused Giants club is going to be tough to overcome. No units risked.
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Pittsburgh Steelers -1
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This has all the makings of a cage match on a football field. Everybody always knows all about the Steelers and their well earned reputation as a hard hitting, rock solid defensive unit. Well guys, this years edition of the Cleveland Browns can also defend. I suspect with the Steelers down to their third string QB, Charlie Batch that the Browns will be a trendy pick some sunday morning. Well, I look for a proud Steelers club, that is a legitimate contender to do what true contenders do and step up to the challenge. I look for the Steelers to hound rookie Brandon Weeden all afternoon long and force him into just enough mistakes to make a difference. Trust me, this won't be a game anybody but the most hard core of Steelers fans will want to view again but in the standings it just won't matter to the Steelers who will be leaving town a little bruised and battered for their efforts but with a much needed victory in the books nonetheless. Okay, you guys can clearly see where I am going here. I'm suggesting a wager on Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers to gut one out here.
WUNDERDOG
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Pick: Tennessee -4
There is still time for Tennessee to make a playoff run, but that means they must win here in Jacksonville. So expect a top-notch effort from the Titans. The Jags have played a pair of good teams tough this season. They put a scare into Green Bay and took Houston into overtime last week before losing 43-37. Chad Henne came off the bench to have a career game. Quite often the good teams take the Jaguars too lightly and end up getting caught up in a game they never should have. The good team must then pull a win out late. But let's not mistake that with calling the Jags good. This is a really bad team. The Jags are getting out-scored by 12 points per game against .500 or worse teams this season, because these competitors come to fight for a win. Tennessee is in a do-or-die situation, and Jacksonville may have nothing left in a limited tank after last week. The Jaguars very rarely play consecutive good games, and after throwing for over 250 yards in their previous game, they are 5-13 ATS in their next one. Play on Tennessee.
EZ Money Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers' run defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL, only allowing 87.9 rush YPG! The Ravens' run defense is uncharacteristically quite the opposite. This season, Baltimore's run defense gives up 132.2 rush YPG (ranked 27th). This is going to be the difference in the game. The team that can run AND stop the run will win. I like the Ryan Matthews against Baltimore more than I do Ray Rice against the Chargers' stout run defense. Neither QB is spectacular, and they shouldn't really affect the outcome of this game. I know the Ravens are 8-2, and this spread is small. This is a classic trap game!
Jim Feist
San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
Pick: San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are fast out of the gate once again this season at 10-3 S/U and 8-4 ATS. The Spurs lost to the Clippers back on the 19th and since then have beaten Boston by 12 points and Indiana by seven (both away games). Their long road trip continues today, North of the border this time. But that shouldn't be a problems since the Spurs usually handle bad teams well. The Spurs are 36-15-2 in their last 53 games against a team with a losing record. Conversely, the Raptors don't play well against good teams, covering just 19 of 63 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Raptors have lost three straight and eight of their last 10 games. Don't expect San Antonio to have much difficulty here on Sunday against a far inferior club. The Spurs have a history of not letting up in this spot so don't expect that to happen. Take the Spurs and lay the points on the road.