Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 27

DUNKEL INDEX

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +181 over Oakland

Jay Cutler or Jay Leno, the Bears are the better team here and taking any points offered is a gift. Chicago has won five straight and with Matt Forte leading the way against the Raiders 25th ranked run defense, a sixth straight win would not surprise. Oakland remains beat up at all sorts of positions and the team continues to take costly penalties. Bears QB Caleb Hanie has been in the organization for four years. He’s familiar with the offense and when combined with Chicago’s defense and special teams play, he can lead his team to a win here. Yes, the loss of Cutler is a significant one but teams often rise to the occasion in times of adversity and you can expect the Bears to dig down deep in support of their fill-in QB. Play: Chicago +181 (Risking 2 units).

SAN DIEGO –6 over Denver

There are times in college football when an unranked team is actually favored against a ranked squad. That’s mainly because oddsmakers know the real truth and pointspreads are not based on myth. The same principle applies here. A San Diego team that has lost five straight is listed as a 6-point favorite. That is reality and it sends a loud message. This is the NFL and it has never been more of a passing league than it is today. Tebowmania is fantasy. He’s a great story and he’s also extremely likeable because he’s so humble and appreciative of the chance he’s been given. He has more wins than Cam Newton but his success is unsustainable. Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback and the success of the Broncos college play calling is about to come to an abrupt halt. The films have been studied and it’s over for Tebow. Give us one of the league’s best passers in Philip Rivers, facing off against Tim Tebow and his embarrassing passing abilities and a blowout would not surprise, just like that recent forgotten one that the Lions put on these Broncos a short time ago. Play: San Diego –6 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Cleveland +8 over CINCINNATI

Bengals battered and bruised both emotionally and physically after pair of losses to Steelers and Ravens respectively. That makes spotting its biggest spread of the year a considerable order for adolescent Cincinnati bunch. The Bengals are getting lots of love and respect for competing week in and week out and even sharing the lead in the NFC North for a time. However, a close look reveals that the Bengals last four wins have come against Tennessee, Seattle, Indy and Jacksonville and all were close with the exception of a 34-12 win over Seattle in a game that was 17-12 with seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Bengals other two wins came against Buffalo by three and they opened the season with a 10-point win over these same Brownies. So yeah, they’ve been competitive all year but they’ve not come close to showing an ability to put away teams. Cleveland’s unheralded defense has actually allowed fewer points than Cincy’s and it’s also worth noting that the Browns have not quit playing. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

THE REST:

JACKSONVILLE +4 over Houston

The Texans go from ‘score Matt’ to ‘door Matt’ as Leinart replaces the injured Schaub. While the line has been adjusted to account for the change, we still prefer a Jacksonville side that plays solid defense and is returning home after three away. Jags last game as host was a win over Ravens. TAKING: JAGUARS +4 (No bets).

INDIANAPOLIS +3½ over Carolina

Panthers came out of the gates guns a blazin’. Now they appear to be shooting blanks. Their neophyte offense is making too many mistakes while the defense is giving up chunks every week and it’s not getting better. Cam Newton nailed it. This team has put on a clinic for “how to lose.” Every week we tune into the Panthers game and think, “hey, these guys are going to win this thing.” But then they don’t. Meanwhile John Fox is off winning a division with a team almost as bad as this one. Good times. Good times. Colts are unsightly but are offered home points from a weak opponent, after a bye week. Play: Indianapolis +3½ (No bets).

Minnesota +9½ over ATLANTA

The Falcons lack football’s killer instinct. Until they acquire it, we’re not anxious to be spotting prohibitive points with them. Obviously, the Vikings aren’t the same with Adrian Peterson on the shelf but as we observed when they lost him last week, Minnesota won’t roll over. Play: Minnesota +9½ (No bets).

N.Y. JETS –9 over Buffalo

While the Jets remain iffy, we’ll grant them a mulligan for their dismal performance in Denver, seeing that they had a difficult scheduling sequence. Off 10 days rest and facing a spiraling Bills team, New York should control a visitor that it defeated by 27-11 count in Buffalo just three weeks ago. Looks like Fred Jackson is on the rack for the Bills and he’s their best weapon. Play: New York Jets –9 (No bets).

Tampa Bay +3½ over TENNESSEE

Bucs have taken a step back this year or have they? Tampa’s previous six games was a nasty set that included the 49ers, Saints, Bears (in London), Saints again, Texans and Packers. This becomes a drop in class against a Tennessee that isn’t strong to begin with and could be without its starting quarterback. Play: Tampa Bay +3½ (No bets).

Arizona +3 over ST. LOUIS

St. Louis shouldn’t be favored over Arizona’s cheerleaders, let alone its football team. The Rams are an abomination and after getting smoked at home to the Seahawks, the morale on this untalented and injured squad has to be at an all time low. Not exactly a marquee game. Never expect bad teams to do something good. Play: Arizona +3 (No bets).

Washington +4 over SEATTLE

Amazingly, the Seahawks have not been favored in their past 17 games. Then again, unless they are playing within their feeble division (sans San Francisco) or facing the Colts, we see no reason that they should be. Tashard Choice had his big chance to exact revenge upon the team that allowed him to rot on the bench for years before discarding him. 7 yards on 6 carries. So much for revenge. Ryan Torain pitched in for 4 yards on 5 carries. After playing Skins for a few weeks, we just can’t get off them now. Washington’s pass rush enough to tip the scales in its favor. Play: Washington +4 (No bets).

Philadelphia +3½ over NEW ENGLAND

The Eagles playoff hopes remain on life support but at least there’s a pulse. After a crucial road win at Giants, Philly will host a New England squad that is traveling on a short week along with its share of injuries. Vick or no Vick, Eagles speedy playmakers pose problems for Patriots defensive schemes and this one looks like a huge trap, as the line is small and everyone you know will love the Patriots. Play: Philadelphia +3½ (No bets).

KANSAS CITY +10½ over Pittsburgh

It’s not easy to make a case for the Chiefs. Even if the Chiefs hadn’t lost their best players to injury this season, they had no business polluting prime time more than once this season. Two prime time games within a week? Hmm. That heap big ratings bump for show that not football on other channel. Paleface who buys ads lose 'em scalp on that deal. All kidding aside, these big favorites can’t keep getting the money in prime time games. The lines are inflated and they’re getting worse, as the chalk continues to cover. You’re paying a huge premium to wager on the Steelers here. With Ben Roethlisberger nursing a fractured thumb and facing a team that has limited ability, expect the Steelers to take a conservative approach to this one. That will suit the Chiefs, as they will hope to run the ball and keep Pittsburgh’s offense off the field, keeping this one within range. Big caution flag on the favorite. Play: Kansas City +10½ (No bets).

Steve Merril

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Houston Texans -3½

The Texans are riding a 4-game winning streak, but unfortunately for them, they got bad news when learning that quarterback Matt Schaub would be lost for the season with a right foot injury. Fortunately for the Texans, their bye week came at the right time as it allowed Matt Leinart to take all of the reps with the first team offense. And it also doesn’t hurt that Houston will be facing a weak Jacksonville Jaguars team this week. The Texans’ offense was rolling over the last four games as they out-gained opponents by an average of 238 yards per game. Over that same 4-game stretch, the Texans out-rushed their opponents by 553 yards. While they will definitely miss Schaub under center, Leinart has plenty of starting experience in the NFL. His job is a lot easier now that the Texans have a good running game to lean on.

Jacksonville’s offense has been terrible this season. The Jaguars are last in the league in total offense, only able to average 13 points and 249 yards per game. Jacksonville management stated this week that they are “playing for pride” now that their playoff hopes are done. We’re really not sure what that means as there is not much to be proud of in Jacksonville, especially on offense. Their defense has played good this season (18 points per game), but they will not be able to stop the Houston offense, even with Leinart at QB.

Houston comes into this game at 7-3, and they are looking to position themselves for the playoffs. Without Schaub, the Texans can ill afford to take any team lightly. And they won’t here considering its Leinart’s first game and the Jaguars are a divisional opponent. Houston easily won the first meeting 24-14 after holding Jacksonville to just 174 yards of total offense. While the Texans may not score 27 points, which is what they average this season, their #1 ranked defense will shutdown the anemic Jaguars’ offense once again on their way to another easy win.

Chip Chirimbes

Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -9

Both these clubs can use a transfusion as they have dropped six straight between them. There is a difference as the Bills are being crushed week-in and week-out and have lost too many players to injuries and their offense is non-existent. The Jets at least are a playoff team that needs this more because they have had higher expectations. Home turf and crowd helps here.

Steve Janus

Carolina Panthers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Carolina Panthers -3

While the Panthers might seem like a good team for the Colts to get their first win of the season against, my money is on the Panthers to keep Indianapolis winless. The Panthers are a young team that has had trouble winning games, and I expect them to see this game as a prime opportunity to pull out a win. Carolina is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati had a 5 game winning streak snapped by losing back-to-back games to division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, who are both 7-3 and tied for first place in the AFC North. On Sunday they'll host their other division rival, Cleveland, who is 4-6 and in the basement of the division. Playing the Browns is a huge drop in class for these Bengals, as they're 4-1 the last five in the series, including a 27-17 victory at Cleveland in the first meeting. This second meeting will be played in Cincinnati and these Browns are 0-3 SU & ATS as road Dogs this season, losing those 3 games by an average 12 points per game, getting outscored 39 to 74 points. Willing to lay the Touchdown against a Cleveland squad that's been held to 17 points or less in 9 of their 10 games.

Patrick Webb

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Houston Texans -6

Houston is the play in this game despite losing QB Matt Shaub for the season. Matt Leinart can step in and lean on a running game that features two quality backs and one of the top defenses in the leauge. Jacksonville is 1-6-1 ATS after allowing 15 or less in the previous game, and Houston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Houston has some high profile injuries, but Jacksonville may be missing more key components than Houston in this game. The Jags are missing three starters on defense and are thin at all three levels of the defense. Houston has the ability to generate big plays in the passing game despite the absence of Shaub as Andre Johnson returns and Owen Daniels is a big mismatch in this game. Houston is allowing only 16.6 ppg and rank in the top four or better in four key defensive categories- points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards. The Jags are scoring only 12.5 ppg on the season and only 4.6 yards per attempt on the season. Houston's varied looks will lead to a big advantage versus a rookie QB without solid weapons on the outside.

Scott Rickenbach

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
PICK: New York Jets -9.5

The Jets are off of a tight road loss at Denver Thursday. Now the Jets return home after back to back losses and they look to bounce back in a big way as a sizable home favorite. Note that New York is 3-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Jets are a perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons when they are at home with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Jets already hammered Buffalo three weeks ago and that started a stretch for the Bills where they have lost three straight games by a combined score of 106 to 26. Note that, off of a divisional game, the Bills are 3-10 ATS the last three seasons. After getting hammered at Miami last week, things certainly aren't looking promising for Buffalo this week as they face a Jets team that is at home and hungry off of a tight loss. Look for the Bills to drop to 2-8 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a loss to a division rival. The Jets defense is still playing well and the Buffalo offense has been putrid. Add it all up and that spells a B-L-O-W-O-U-T for the J-E-T-S in this one! Consider a small play on the New York Jets minus the big points on Sunday afternoon.

Stephen Nover

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
PICK: New York Jets -9.5

The line keeps climbing in this matchup, but it's totally justified.

The Bills are playing terrible having dropped four of their last five while giving up an average of 35.3 points in their last three games.

Buffalo has marginal talent and limited depth. Now the Bills have been hit hard by injuries. In the last couple of weeks, they've lost their best offensive lineman (center Eric Wood), their best running back and most productive offensive player (Fred Jackson), wide receiver Donald Jones and cornerback Terrence McGee.

Ryan Fitzpatrick needs a strong supporting cast to cover up his weak arm and limited skills. The Bills don't have that and opposing defenses have figured out Buffalo's short passing game. Fitzpatrick is averaging two turnovers per game in his last six games. The Bills have scored the grand total of 26 points during their last three games - and that was with Jackson, who was their best running back by far.

The Jets rank eight in total defense and fifth in pass defense thanks in large part to Darrelle Revis, who remains the premier cornerback. He'll take on Steve Johnson, who is playing hurt and Buffalo's only consistent wide receiving threat.

The Jets have had four extra days to stew about their loss to Denver and Tim Tebow. Mark Sanchez didn't play well in that game. He has a history, though, of following a bad performance with a good one.

The Bills don't put pressure on the quarterback ranking 29th in sacks. They rate 26th in total defense and have given up the third-most rushing touchdowns. Shonn Greene is back healthy and has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his last three games against Buffalo. Sanchez, given good run support, should be able to put up good passing numbers against the Bills and their beat-up secondary.

New York defeated Buffalo, 27-11, just three weeks ago when the Bills still had their confidence and swagger. That's all gone now. The Jets were 16 points better than and now they're home and facing a far more banged-up Bills squad.

Look for the Jets to easily defeat the Bills for the seventh time in the last eight meetings.

Hollywood Sports

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

The entire Colts' organization and is desperate not to be winless this season and they may not have a better opportunity to secure that victory than when then host Carolina (2-8). Turnovers have killed Indianapolis this season as they are burdened with a -10 turnover margin. But they face a similarly riddled team in the Panthers who possess a -5 turnover margin themselves. While Cam Newton has shown many flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, he has also tossed 14 interceptions already. Carolina also has some serious problems on defense as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 28.6 PPG while also ranking 27th in the league in yards allowed (374.8 total YPG). The road has also been a problem for the Panthers where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of 10 points. The Carolina defense is surrendering 35.5 PPG along with 382.8 total YPG when away from home which helps explain their poor play on the road. The Colts have had two weeks to prepare for this game -- and Indianapolis has covered 4 straight games coming off their bye week. Even with a win here, the Colts are still in the driver's seat to secure the rights to draft Andrew Luck next April. If they do not win this game outright, they should make it a very close game. Take the points with Indianapolis.

Sam Martin

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

Indy has blown numerous chances to net their first victory of the season, the most recent chance coming last week when they couldn't muster more than a field goal against a bad Jacksonville team. No reason to think the Colts will suddenly turn their luck around as they face another bad team here in Carolina, but the Panthers can rack up points in a hurry. Colts offense is really struggling now after having moderate success early in the year, and Indy has now been held to 10 points or less in four straight. Lay the small price with the road side against the worst team in the league as the Colts woes continue! 5* Play on Carolina.

Marc Lawrence

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Prediction: Buffalo Bills

While Rex went off on a fan rant and found his wallet lightened to the tune of 50K, it was an indication of the frustration boiling around the Jets hangar these days. And according to our database, Ryan may be applying for a second mortgage sooner than later. That?s because the plunging Airplanes are just 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS as favorites in games off a SU favorite loss. Granted, the Bills are having problems of their own, riding a 0-3 SU and ATS streak. But that may be a silver lining in a black cloud considering Buffies 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS mark away from home in games when on a 0-3 SU and ATS skid. Revenge from a 16-point home loss three weeks ago is added fuel for the visitors. Bills improve to 6-1 ATS as a series visitor as Rex goes Tyrannosaurus in the post-game interview. We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

Jack Jones

Denver Broncos +6

The Denver Broncos are riding high right now with Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback. Tebow is 4-1 as a starter, and he has led the Broncos to three straight victories. They are now only one game behind the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West standings. I am going to continue to ride this team while they are playing their best football of the season.

San Diego is free falling, losers of five straight to fall two games behind the Raiders in the division. This is certainly a team you do not want to back with your money right now, and one that I will continue to fade until they show me otherwise. The Chargers have been hurt by injuries all year, and Philip Rivers has thrown a league-high 17 interceptions. They have no business being this heavily favored today.

While Tebow is receiving all the attention for the Broncos' success, the defense has been just as important. During the three-game winning streak, Denver is allowing an average of 15.7 points and has intercepted four passes. Von Miller leads all NFL rookies with 9 1/2 sacks and the Broncos enter the week tied for eighth in the league with 27.

The Broncos recorded a season-high five sacks against the Chargers last month. Tebow entered the game down 26-10 in the fourth quarter, and nearly led his team all the way back for a victory. Denver eventually lost 24-29, and they will certainly be motivated for revenge here.

The Chargers, who are allowing an average of 139.7 rushing yards in their last six games, can expect another heavy dose of running plays from Denver's option offense, which is averaging an NFL-best 200.3 rushing yards since Week 5.

The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC opponents. The Chargers are 2-8 ATS in all games this season, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bet Denver Sunday.

Dave Cokin

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: New England Patriots

This is not a bad spot for the Eagles as they're a talented team that is in an absolute must win situation and they're a home dog to boot. But they're also the second best team on the field here. Not strong enough on this to release it as a play on the service, but I'm favoring the Patriots to notch the win and cover.