Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Houston -6.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE: No Matt Schaub, but this team still has Arian Foster, the #1 ranked defense and they get Andre Johnson back for this one. Matt Leihart did not have a great time while in Arizona, but he also didn't play behind a good OL like the Texans have. Matt has also had the benefit of the bye week to get ready for this one, so I expect him to perform well. The Jags have played well vs the pass this year (4th), but they are average at best vs the run, allowing 111.2 ypg, including 129.3 ypg in their last 3 games. This team can be run on and that will only help open up throwing lanes for Liehart. Houston isn't all about their 6th ranked offense as they bring the #1 defense into this game as well. Houston is 1st in total defense (269.7 ypg), 2nd in pass defense (178.4 ypg), 4th vs the run (91.3 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed 16.6 ppg). I though only LSU and Alabama had complet defenses like that. This is a complete defense and they should have little problems stopping a Jacksonville offense that is 32nd overall (249.5 ypg), 32nd in passing (129.4 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg). This is a pathetic offense with no chance at all at putting 10 or more points on the board vs this very good Houston defense. The Texans are rolling right now and they are loaded on both sides of the ball (even without Schaub), plus the are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, while the Jags are 1-6 ATS after allowing 15 or less points. Houston by 10+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- In this one we play against any team that scored 14 points or less last week if they are facing a team off a Bye. This system is 37-12 since 1997, including 3-0 this year.
4 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Oakland Under 41.5: Caleb Hannie? Cmon. Its a good thing Chicago has a good running game that is 14th in the league at 116.8 ypg and in their last 3 games they have churned out 121.7 ypg on the ground. The Bears have put up 32.2 ppg in their last 5 games, but all of that was with Cutler and he will not be here for this one. I expect Forte and Barber to get plenty of carries and take aim at an Oakland defense that is 26th in the league vs the run allowing 131.6 ypg. This is a big game for Chicago and I don't expect them to put the game in Hannies hands, but they will rely on their run game and a defense that has been hot lately. The Bears defense has given up some yards of late but just 17 ppg and they are 11th in the league vs the run, allowing just 101.2 ypg, and the running game is the strength of the Raiders. The Raiders have aired it out a bit more with Carson Palmer, but they are still all about their 3rd ranked running game that averages 156 ypg. T he Bears have struggled vs the pass (30th), but they have the ability to make the plays at the right time and they are 6th in the league in defensive yards per point at 18.0. Chicago will not try an win this game on the arm of Caleb, so I look for them to run Forte and Barber alot and then rely on their defense. Palmer has the Raider offense playing well, but they won't get much off this Chicago defense today. I expect no more than 35 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY JETS -9.5 over Buffalo: the Bills looked like they may have turned the corner this year after a hot start, but injuries have hit them hard and they have now lost 3 games in a row and they have really looked bad in doing so. In their last 3 games the Bills have averaged just 8.7 ppg and 268 ypg, while their defense has been torched for 35.3 ppg and 341 ypg. The Bills have alos not taken care of the ball all that well in their last 3 games as they are -7 in TO's during the 3 games. That's not gonna win many games. Now this injury riddled team must take on a Jets team that is very desperate and very pissed off after a couple of bad losses. The Jets tho have the ability to stop this bad Buffalo offense as they bring in the leagues 8th ranked defense overall and 5th ranked pass defense. The Jets can be run on as they are 17th in that category, but Fred Jackson is out and they are very thin at RB so I don't expect the bills to have success running the ball here and a poor passing game certainly won't have success vs Revis and company. Buffalo just has too many injuries and even when they were healthier they lost at home by 16 to this Jets team 3 weeks ago. NY needs this one bad and will get it with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
ATLANTA -9.5 over Minnesota: The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 games and are right behind New Orleans in the NFC South. This is a team that is in the thick of the playoff race and they need to win this easy games if they plan on staying in the race. Minnesota is not having a good year and they will be without Peterson in this one and that will hurt. The Falcons have the 2nd ranked rush defense so their is alot of pressure on their Rookie QB and I don't expect him to have a good showing here. Matt Ryan is 23-4 SU at home and has 41 TD's to just 17 INT's and he should have good success vs the leagues 28th ranked pass defense. The vikes just don't have enough offense or defense to keep this one close.
Tennessee/ Tampa Bay Under 43: Tampa's offense has scored just 16.3 ppg in their last 6 games and yes they scored 26 last week, but that was vs a weak Packer defense. The Tenness defense has played very well this year, allowing just 19.5 ppg overall and 16.7 ppg in thier last 3 games. The Tampa defense has been bad this year, but the titans offense has scored just 20.3 ppg overall and 18.8 ppg at home, plus Hasselbeck will not be at 100% in this one, which should lead to more a ground game for the Titans and that will chew up the clock. I expect a game in the mid 30's here.
1 UNIT PLAY
SAN DIEGO -5.5 over Denver: I still don't think the Chargers season is over. This is a team with too much talent to think they are done, especially in the weak AFC West. denver has had some good wins with Tebow behind center but his magic ends in this one.
Triple Threat Sports
Tennessee (-) over Tampa Bay
Bucs come into this after a big effort against the defending Super Bowl champs, but an effort that still resulted in an 11 point loss. They have now lost by 45-9-11 points in their last three road games, with a six point loss in London also mixed in. For their part, the Titans have struggled against the better teams in the league, but have done quite well against the teams they are supposed to beat, scoring a 31-13 win over Cleveland, a 27-10 win over the Colts, and a 30-3 win at Carolina. At 5-5 they cannot afford a slip up if they want to stay in the AFC playoff race, and we look for them to get the job done here, especially with the Bucs playing in their second straight away game and with a temperature that will dip into the high 30's as the game wears on.
Bob Balfe
Texans -6.5 over Jaguars
In the past the Texans would be done it Matt Schaub went down. This team is good. There is no getting around it. Houston has a great running game and a great defense. I think Matt Leinart is going to be fine. Let’s not for get this guy what a first round pick and a superstar. He has been humbled and I think for at least today he is going to be fine. Jacksonville is without both starting cornerbacks and even had to go out a sign a guy off the street to start this weekend. Not a good plan! This once very solid defense has holes in it and I just do not see them stopping Houston. Blaine Gabbert is not a quality NFL Quarterback and I cannot see them putting up too many points. Take Houston.
Matt Rivers
As for your Week Twelve free play, I am going to lay the small chalk with Tennessee at home over Tampa Bay.
Not worried about Matt Hasselbeck and his sore elbow, as I really liked what I saw when rookie Jake Locker came in last week at Atlanta and moved the chains, as the Titans gave a little late scare to the Falcons in their six-point loss.
The Titans have been able to claim three wins in their five home starts this season, and they are catching a Tampa Bay team that appears to have thrown in the towel as we head down the stretch.
The Buccaneers have lost their last four games, and while they did cover last week at Green Bay, they have to be a bit deflated after their all-out effort to knock the Pack from their unbeaten perch failed.
Tampa Bay has now lost five of their last six overall to fall out of contention in the NFC South, and they are just 2-4 this year versus the line when installed as a single-digit dog.
It is not one of the "sexier" games on the Week Twelve card, but it is a winner nonetheless, take Tennessee.
1♦ TENNESSEE
Dom Chambers
For my free play, let us look at the over between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills.
The last few games, the Bills have been exposed as frauds and it was the Jets who first exposed them.
The Bills’ defense has been shredded. They have given up 35.3 points per game and 341 total yards.
Buffalo will be without running back Fred Jackson. They will have to rely on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead the offense.
The Bills offense has been a problem lately. They are only averaging 8.7 points in their last three games. Earlier this season, they were averaging more than 30 points a game.
Without Jackson, they will have to throw the ball more and get in the end zone a few times. The total is not that high, so there would not need a whole lot of offense to get there.
At home, the Jets have been a bit better on offense, scoring an average of 25.2 points and gaining 327 total yards. Their last two home games have gone over the total.
If the Bills’ offense gains some of its old mojo, it will not be hard to get to the over. If not, the Jets may get there by themselves against the weak Buffalo defense.
3♦ OVER
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Bills plus the points as they head to East Rutherford to battle their divsional rival, the Jets. A couple problems I see with the line on this contest, but let's start with the biggest news of this match up: the injury to Fred Jackson. Having what was by far the best season of his career, he will be missed, but this line is a bordering on ridiculous. C.J. Spiller is a capable fill-in with top-end speed and soft hands. He should suit the Bills "check-down" Fitzpatrick just fine, as we know the noodle armed QB isn't going to throw the ball more than 15 yards.
Speaking of QBs, do you really trust "Sanchise" enough to lay this many points with the Jets? C'mon guys, we all saw flashes, but right now he's clearly struggling. I know what Jets-backers are thinking... He had a great game at Buffalo in Week 9 and therefore should be just fine today, right? WRONG! The Bills defense is rock-solid, and they will not allow the Jets to manhandle them once again here today. The Bills offense is struggling mightily, but let's not lose sight of the fact that so is the Jets offense, averaging just 18 ppg over their L3 games.
Finally, from a trend standpoint, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in their L12 meetings and the Bills are 9-4 ATS in their L13 overall as an underdog of between 3' to 10 points. Jets are also just 1-4 ATS in their L5 following a SU loss, so don't talk to me about bounce back mode. Long story short, the Jets may win SU here, but covering the bloated number is an entirely different story. Buffalo plus the points over the NY Jets Sunday.
2♦ BUFFALO
Although I'm keeping this Free Play on the Colts small, I must admit this is an intriguing contest. Even though the Colts are off their bye and facing their best chance at avoiding a winless season, betters are flocking to the Panthers in droves here. Sorry, but I'm unwilling to just blindly fade the Colts just because they are 0-10. In fact, I believe their entire season comes down to this game because while they're clearly angling for Andrew Luck, going winless is not in the gameplan for this once proud franchise. I'm sure they used the bye week to reinterate that.
Also, all things considered what's so special about the Panthers? Their offense has been atrocious, but more importantly, their defense has been far inferior to the Colts. For comparisons sake, the Colts are allowing 25 ppg on 331 total yards their L3 games, while the Panthers are surrendering 34 ppg on 413 total yards over the same span - that's a significant difference. Factor in the Colts small, but still noteworthy home field advantage (team built to play on faster surface), and they're more than capable of wining this game.
Can we put the whole Cam Newton is an elite quarterback thing to bed now? Sure he's a hell of a lot better than Painter, but that's not saying much. I'm more interested in the fact Colts backfield is finally healthy, you can expect all three Colts RBs to share the load, but the addition of Addai to the mix can't hurt. Panthers are allowing 157 rushing yards per game over their L3 games on a ridiculous 4.9 ypc.
Bottom line, the Colts know full well that a loss here all but guarantees a winless season (with maybe a chance at Jacksonville in Week 17), and that's a distinction no team wants. Look for them to have used the bye to further expose a terrible Panthers defense, while on the flip side the Colts defense has been playing a lot better of late and should be thoroughly prepared for this one. Take Indianapolis plus the points over Carolina Sunday.
1♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Broncos as the dog to bark loud again on Sunday against the Chargers.
Forget the fact San Diego has won and covered the last four series meetings. Now that Denver is firmly committed (at least for this year) to Tim Tebow under center, the Broncos game plan has been retro-fitted to maximize Tebow's abilities.
The results speak for themselves, as Denver just upset the Jets at home their last time out for their third win in a row, and their fourth win and cover in their last five games. Say what you want, but #15 knows what he is capble of, and he knows how to move the sticks. It also helps that the Denver's defense has become a force under John Fox, as the Broncos have allowed just 47-total points in their last three wins, and they have forced four interceptions to go along with their nine quarterback sacks.
Not good news for Chargers QB Philip Rivers who now has an unsightly total of 17-interceptions for the year. This is a San Diego team that will take any win they can get, so forget backing them to cover this impost, as the Bolts have lost five straight times both straight up and against the spread!
Based on the stats I just laid out, only one choice today, and that is to back Denver plus the points to come through at the Q this Sunday afternoon.
3♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
Today's complimentary selection is on the Chargers-Broncos game.
"You will never see any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of the season. You will never see another player push his team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season."
Not going to lie to you, ever since Tim Tebow stepped to a podium, uttered those words to the media in a post-game press conference after Florida lost to Ole Miss, I've been a fan of the motivational signal-caller. The kid has a will to win football games, and refuses to go away. Thus, for my complimentary winner tonight, I'm taking the Denver Broncos over the San Diego Chargers, plus the +7 points. And for insurance I want you to buy the half point on this game, so you're actually taking +7' points.
And as much as I admit I've been "Tebowed," I am not a fan of Norv Turner, or Philip Rivers. I think both of them to be exorcised from San Diego and sent into separate systems - one as a coordinator and the other as a backup - cause both are inept in their current roles as head coach and starting quarterback.
The Chargers have now lost five straight, albeit to the playoff contenders (at the time they played the team) - the Jets, Chiefs, Packers, Raiders and Bears - and this would make six in a row, now that the Broncos have won four of five since Tebow has taken over as starter of this team
The last time the Bolts won, they were in the Mile High City the week the Tebow-era began, as he came in the game and almost brought the Broncos back. The Chargers won, 29-24. Now it's time for revenge, as the Broncos continue their surge in the AFC West, feeding off three straight wins, over the Raiders, Chiefs and Jets. And make note, those division wins were in Oakland and Kansas City. So confidence should be running high when playing in San Diego tonight.
This is actually quadruple-revenge for the Broncos in this series, as the Chargers haven't lost to Denver since Oct. 19, 2009 - in San Diego. The road team has won four of the last five meetings outright. And with Tebow willing the Broncos the past five weeks, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that record improve to 5-1 for the visitor.
San Diego is 2-8 ATS this season while the Broncos have covered four of their last five on the road. Take the points here, and don't forget to buy the half point up and grab +7' with Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.
4♦ DENVER BRONCOS
Ben Burns
Blues @ Blue Jackets
PICK: Under 5.5
After a lengthy stretch of games that stayed below the total, the oddsmakers started dropping the O/U lines on St. Louis games from 5.5 down to five. What happened? Four of their five games landed right on the number, resulting in a "push." Today, however, the Blues' O/U line is back up to 5.5. While we have to lay a little extra "juice" to get the 5.5, given the Blues' recent history, the price seems reasonable.
Looking back a bit further finds the "under" at 7-0-4 (or 8-0-3) in the Blues' 11 November games. ALL 11 of those games produced five or fewer combined goals. They averaged exactly four, most recently a 2-0 victory over Calgary two days ago. Note that the "under" is 3-0 the last three times they were off a shutout.
As for the Blue Jackets, they saw their last game finish above the total, a 5-1 win over the Sabres. Their previous two games each stayed below the total though, finishing with scores of 2-1 and 4-1. Note that the Jackets have seen the "under" go 2-0 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 7-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. This one figures to have a solid shot at finishing with five or less once again. Consider the Under.
Michael Alexander
Carolina Panthers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Carolina Panthers -3
CAROLINA is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite
Erin Rynning
Washington at Seattle
Play: Seattle -3
After a promising 3-1 start, it’s obviously been all downhill for the Redskins. They’ve now lost six straight games including last week’s heartbreaker to the Cowboys. From a talent perspective it’s just hard to envision this team even coming close to challenging their NFC East Division rivals down the stretch. Playing one of their rivals won’t be the case this week as they travel to the northwest to face the Seahawks. The Seahawks certainly have their own issues; however they’ve now won two games in a row including an upset over the Ravens two weeks ago on this same home turf. The key match-up in this game points to Seattle's defensive line against the Redskins' offensive line. Seattle’s front five is playing at a very strong level right now with Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane and company. Meanwhile, the Redskins o-line is banged up beyond belief and continues to get abused on a regular basis. When you combine these two units with the crowd noise in Seattle, and the questionable decision making of Rex Grossman, the Seahawks should be able to hold down this offense. With the line currently down to -3 we’ll fly with the Seahawks on their strong home turf.
JR O'Donnell
St. Louis -5
JR O hangs up a W 9 PM EST the St Louis Bilikins play the Oklahoma Sooners. Normally there would be those wondering how many points the Sooners would be laying. Well the Sooners are under a new coach in Lon Kruger who is a little bit of a basketball nomad. From Florida to NBA to UNLV to Oklahoma and where else. He is a good coach, but like Larry Brown, never seems to be happy. Well he got himself into a difficult situation here at OU, as he has the least talent in the BIG 12 which is a football conference.
He plays a St Louie team coached by basketball junkie Rich Majerus, who is one of the best coaches in the nation, and if he stays heathly he will take them to an A-10 title. He returns all "5" from a "12" win club with a solid recruiting class. He will finish in the top three or better in the A-10 while Oklahoma has been picked to finish last in the BIG 12. the Sooners backcourt is a poor bunch & the frontcourt at a small crew .. Power rated @ - 11.22 points
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Jacksonville Jaguars +7
The Jaguars run the ball well enough and play good enough defense to keep this one close against a Houston team that is without starting QB Matt Schaub. The Jags rank 11th in the NFL with 120.1 rushing yards per game. They rank 4th in total defense with 300.2 yards allowed per game and 5th in scoring defense with 18 points allowed per contest. The Texans won't throw Leinart to the wolves against a good defense. Expect them to run the ball a lot today to ease him in. This will give the Jags an opportunity to get more three-and-outs, and therefore more offensive possessions. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +114 over OTTAWA
Just like the Hurricanes, the Senators are much more appealing taking back a price than laying one. Furthermore, this is not a good situational spot for the hosts, as they return from a six-game trip that started with two games against Toronto and Buffalo, followed by three games in Western Canada and ending with a game in Pittsburgh. Now the Sens are home for one lousy game before heading out for three more in Winnipeg, Dallas and Washington. That scheduling is bordering on unfair. Ottawa has also lost seven of its last 10. For the Canes, Cam Ward is still one of the best in the business. The Canes have picked up points in three of their last four and they probably deserved a better fate against Winnipeg on Friday night. After a slow start, Eric Staal has picked it up recently and that’s key. So, what we have here is the more rested team in a favorable spot, a big edge between the pipes and a tag. That works. Play: Carolina +114 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +100 over ANAHEIM
As long as the Ducks continue to struggle, there’s no reason to back off fading them. Anaheim is coming off a 6-5 loss to Chicago in a game they led 4-2 after two periods. They scored with eight seconds left to make it closer than it looked and frankly, they had no business being in front to begin with. Anaheim continues to give up more scoring chances than any team in the NHL and it doesn’t help matters that its best defender, Lubomir Visnovsky is on the rack. The Ducks have allowed four goals or more in four straight and have been held to two or less in nine of its past 13 games. They have just two wins over its past 17 games and now they’ll face a Leafs club that is on an offensive tear. Toronto has scored 20 goals over its last four, winning three of them. The Leafs are getting great production from a bunch of young and enthusiastic kids and that rubs off on the whole team. The hottest offensive team versus the coldest defensive team gets the call. Play: Toronto +100 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +7½ over B.C. LIONS
Wish we had a strong opinion on this game but we don’t. Clearly the Lions are on a serious roll and it looks like they can’t be beat, especially by a weak offensive club in an offensive league. Having said that, teams that are given no shot often rise to the occasion. The Lions are being told by the press and everyone else that they’re going to win easy and seldom do we see things working out that way. What we do know is that the Bombers have been a seven-point or more dog three times this season and they won twice outright and covered the other one. They’ve come up big in all of their big games this season, including the opener, games against Montreal when first place was on the line and last week against a TiCats team that scored just three points after scoring more than 50 the week before against Montreal. Winnipeg is the league’s top defensive team when you put all that together, it’s hard not to take the 7½ points. The Lions are the class of the league and should they get up by 10-14 points, it could take the Bombers out of their game. It’s really too close to call and we’re just not that comfortable with either side. Given the choice, we’d take the points but we’ll have to pass in terms of placing a wager. Play: Winnipeg +7½ (No bets).