Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 28,2010

Sam Martin

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

This obviously won't be a popular play as the Panthers are likely the worst team in the NFL and have all sorts of issues at the quarterback position, but this is way too many points for a losing Cleveland team to be laying here, especially with quarterback problems of their own. Colt McCoy is likely out for this one, and the Browns have really no passing threat. Carolina will have some success on the ground, as the Browns allowed 145 and 172 rushing yards in the last two weeks. Cleveland wins, but not by double-digits!

Tom Freese

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Chicago Bears

Philadelphia is 7-3 straight up this year. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they are 0-5 ATS after gaining over 350 yards in their last game. Chicago is 7-3 straight up this year. The Bears are 5-1 ATS off a straight up win. The Bears are 20-8 ATS in home games vs. a team that completes 61% or more of their passes.

John Ryan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -9

My proprietary model and simulator shows a high probability that the Baltimore (7-3, 4-0 home) will defeat Tampa Bay (7-3, 4-1 away) by a minimum of eight points. The technical systems and angles favor the Ravens and they are the better team on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has been a real surprise this season, but going on the road to defeat an AFC contender is just too tall a task at this point. Just last week we saw an upstart Raiders team go into Pittsburgh and the Raiders got a rude awakening in a very humbling defeat. I think the same will occur in this game as well to the Bucs. The Technicals Favor the Ravens Ravens are a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after scoring 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992. Supporting the Ravens is a solid system that has produced a 43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. Play against road teams off an upset win by 14 points or more as a dog and is a good team winning 60% or more of their games on the season. Tampa Bay has become over valued NFL has been commonly referred to as ‘Not for Long’ and this certainly applies to Tampa Bay. They enter this game winners of four of the last five games and have covered four straight. At the beginning of the season the public did not expect the Bucs to be even a .500 type team. Now that they have accomplished far more than the original expectations the public is now enamored with them and will ride the horse all the way to the finish line. By analogy, that horse is about to stop far short of the finish line. So, what I see as a fair line, the public will see otherwise as ‘Lock bet’ on Tampa Bay at the 7 1/2 point level. In sum, the value is with the Ravens, who are the proven team. Baltimore in a near ‘must win’ game Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tied for the AFC North lead and the winner could easily have a first round BYE while the second place team may not even make the playoffs. So, Baltimore must take care of business in this game and get the win. A veteran team like the Ravens will not get caught looking ahead to next week’s showdown with the Steelers. The Ravens ‘D’ will be Prepared Tampa Bay used several gadget plays last week. They threw a touchdown to an offensive lineman, used a fake punt successfully, and had a backup quarterback lined up at wide receiver in a modified ‘wildcat’ formation. Those plays worked because the element of surprise was present. Now, that Baltimore has had ample time to review tape of all of these plays they will be fully prepared to recognize any odd formations and alignments. Ravens Defense will stop the Bucs run The Bucs have averaged 141 rushing yards per game since October 10 with the running back combination of Cadillac Williams and LeGarrette Blount. The Ravens defense has the personnel to stop the Bucs running game and this will severely limit Bucs tight end Kellon Winslow’s impact in the game. Without play action, there are a minimal number of plays that the Bucs can use to get the ball into Winslow’s hands, who leads the team with 43 receptions. In addition, the lack of a reliable running game will enable the Ravens defensive front and linebackers to collapse the pocket and force poor reads that may result in numerous turnovers. Ravens win this BIG!

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +6

The Bills qualify in 2 systems that pertain to home dog off a road dog win vs an opponent off a home win. While they do not qualify in the best parts of those systems we will take a shot with them and the 7 points as the free play. The Bills have won their last 2 which shows they have not thrown in the towel on another non playoff year. The Bills are also an excellent 11-1 ats ad dogs off a double digit ats win. The Steelers are off an easy coast to coast win over a Raiders team that was non competitive last week. The Steelers may be looking ahead to their big revenge match up next week in Baltimore. The Steelers are 1-6-1 ats as a road favorite of more than 3. The Bills are the Free system Club play this week.

MARC LAWRENCE

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Carolina Panthers

It’s not often you come across a double-digit underdog in the NFL that owns the better defense. Especially one who is taking on an opponent that has outgained just ONE opponent (New England!) all season. But that’s the sorry state of affairs in Carolina these days where the 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS Panthers reside. Due to a rash of injuries, both teams are hurting at the quarterback position. The bottom line in a game like this is whether the line is warranted. After all, Cleveland is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven games when they’ve dressed up as a favorite, including 0-5 SU and ATS when not off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. John Fox’s attractive dog log has taken a hit of late (10-14 ATS last two-plus seasons), yet he remains rock solid when taking points from sub .400 opponents, going 6-1 SU and ATS throughout his career. Sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do. Grab the clothespin and slap it on. Take the points with the Panthers. We recommend a 1-unit play on Carolina.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Steelers @ Bills
PICK: Under 43

After last weeks commanding 5-1 (83%) NFL card, which included hitting another "FREE PREMIUM NFL PLAY" (now 6-2/75% with "FREE PREMIUM" this season), we'll look to add to our records with another strong showing.

We focus in on Buffalo as the Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to take on the Bills; for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Steelers have seen the total go "under" the number in 5 of 10 to start the year; last week they smoked the Raayyyddaaa's 35-3 (that was my "FREE PREMIUM" winner), the total staying well below the number of 41.

Significant to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of 5 road games where the total is between 42 1/2 and 45-points over the last 2-seasons.

On the other side of the ball are the Buffalo Bills who have also seen the total go "under" in 5 of their first 10 (including in 3 of 5 at Ralph Wilson Stadium); last week they annihilated the Bengals 49-31, the total sailing "over" the number of 41.

Buffalo has seen the total go "under" the number in all 4 home games over the last 2-seasons where the total is between 42 1/2 and 45 points; also in 10 of its last 15 vs. teams with a winning record.

Bottom line: Important to point out as well that in 6 of these teams last 9 vs. each other, regardless of the location, the total has also indeed gone "under" the number.

Pittsburgh crushed what should have been a highly motivated Raiders team last week, especially on the defensive side of the ball; I believe we'll see a repeat performance here; "I liked the intensity. It was necessary," coach Mike Tomlin said. "It was a nice bounce-back performance for us."

Although the Bills are coming off their best offensive performance this season, let's be realistic here, the Bengals are a complete mess (especially on the defensive side), and I'm not reading too much into the outcome of that contest; I expect Buffalo to have a big letdown this weekend against a true NFL defense that's more determined than ever to finish strong down the stretch in its race for the AFC North crown (Pittsburgh is currently tied atop the division with Baltimore at 7-3).

When taking all of the above situational and motivational factors into consideration, and then couple those with the strong "under" trends each team has exhibited in this position, I believe you'll agree with me that this total is a little high and that the UNDER is indeed the prudent wager in this situation.

Scott Spreitzer

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Carolina Panthers +9.5

Both teams enter this contest with QB issues. Carolina expects to start rookie Jimmy Clausen. Meanwhile, the Browns will likely go with former Panther QB Jake Delhomme, due to an ankle injury to Colt McCoy (doubtful). We've backed the Browns on a couple of occasions this season. But they were an underdog each time. The Browns have been favored in a game just once in 2010. Cleveland was a 3-point favorite to Kansas City in week-two, but lost outright, 16-14. Yes, the Browns are improving. But laying 9 1/2 points is another issue. We're talking about a losing franchise, that's won just 3 of 10 games this season, all as an underdog, all of a sudden laying serious chalk. And when you consider that Cleveland is going to hand the ball to RB Peyton Hillis all afternoon, it's going to be tough to cover this big of a number even if the Browns are controlling the play on the field. The Carolina passing game is the worst in the NFL. But they're getting solid play from RB Mike Goodson who has topped 100-yards rushing in back-to-back games. I expect the Panthers to mirror the Browns' game plan, running the ball as much as possible against the league's 21st ranked run defense. Again, this keeps the clock running and makes this big number well worth taking. The Panthers are on a 9-4 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record. Carolina also fits a 39-17 ATS league-wide situation. You simply play on road teams in November, provided they've lost ATS in six or seven of their last eight games. We'll grab the points with the Panthers on Sunday.

Jack Jones

Oakland Raiders -2

The Oakland Raiders are getting no respect from odds makers here. Oakland and Miami each come into this game at 5-5, but clearly the Raiders are in better shape than the Dolphins right now. For one, they are in a winnable division unlike the Dolphins who know their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none with the Jets and Patriots both at 9-2. Two, they aren't in jeopardy of starting their third-string quarterback for a second straight week. Tyler Thigpen is 1-11 as a starter in the NFL, and he was awful in a 0-16 loss to the Chicago Bears last Thursday. Thigpen and this Dolphins offense accumulated a total of 187 yards for the entire game. Chad Henne has practiced on a limited basis this week and may return, but he was demoted a few weeks back in favor of Chad Pennington. Even if Henne starts, this is still a play because the Dolphins obviously don't have much confidence in him after giving him the demotion.

Sure, Oakland was blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in a game they let get away from them in a hurry. But this Raiders team has been much better at home, where they are 4-1 this season playing in front of Raider Nation. Oakland is scoring a whopping 26.2 PPG on their home turf this year while compiling an average of 382 yards of total offense per contest. Miami was already having troubles scoring before their top two quarterbacks went down to injury, scoring just 17.2 PPG overall and 16.8 PPG on the road. Quarterback isn't the only position the Dolphins are hurting at offensively. Star WR Brandon Marshall has been ruled out Sunday with a hamstring injury, and their best offensively lineman in left tackle Jake Long is questionable with a shoulder problem. He was ineffective last week against the Bears as Chicago sacked Thigpen six times, and even if Long goes he is clearly not at full strength and he's just toughing it out when he should be sitting. The Raiders are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Oakland is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. This team has been able to respond to adversity, and head coach Tom Cable is doing as good a job as anyone could ask preparing these Raiders. Roll with Oakland Sunday.

Steve Janus

Cleveland Browns -9.5

A lot of people might be afraid to lay the points with a Browns team that is just 3-7 on the season, but I believe the Browns matchup very well with the Panthers and should dominate them on their home field. Cleveland will be without starting quarterback Colt McCoy, but that shouldn't be a factor given the Browns should be able to run all over the Panthers, who are 24th in the NFL allowing 128 yards a game. The injury to McCoy allows veteran backup Jake Delhomme a chance to play against his former team, and you know he wants nothing more than to stick it to them with a big time performance as member of the Browns.

The Panthers offense has failed to score more than 20 points in a single game this season, and go up against a Browns defense that has created 10 interceptions and 10 sacks in their last four games. Cleveland has won five straight ATS against teams with a losing record, and are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Browns!

Bryan Leonard

St Louis Rams vs. Denver Broncos
Play: St Louis Rams +4

The Rams are 4-6 on the season with four of those losses by 4, 2, 1 and 3 points in overtime. This is a team that continually gets overlook by the betting public. And after a 34-17 loss last week to Atlanta the general public will continue to look past the Rams. Much will be made about the fact that St Louis has lost 17 straight games on the road. But they have taken 3 of their 4 road opponents right down to the wire. This is a hungry team that continues to give it all each and every week.

The same cannot be said of the Broncos. Denver scored the first seven points of the game Monday night in San Diego and then were outscored 35-7 the rest of the way. Denver had high hopes coming into the season but have won just 3 of their first 10 games. And unlike the Rams when the Broncos lose they lose big. Denver has already lost by margins of 7, 14, 14, 4, 45, 8 and 21 points. At home they have dropped 3 of 5 in straight up fashion and 7 of their last 10 here going back to last season. Next week Denver faces Kansas City for the second time after what the Chiefs coaching staff thought was running up the score in a 49-29 home win just two weeks ago. You can be sure the players are more focused on that game than on the invading NFC team that has posted a 10-48 record the past 3+ seasons. We fully expect the Broncos to look past the Rams just like the general public has done all season. This time St Louis gets over the hump for the outright victory.

Bob Wingerter

Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Miami Dolphins +2½

Big negative publicity for Miami when they played off a short week against the Bears on their home field, and lost 16-0 while throwing a ton of passes and abandoning the run. Third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen’s experience against the Chicago Bears’ defense? None. Third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen’s experience against the Oakland defense? He played for the Chiefs for a few seasons. Oakland’s experience defending against the Wildcat? Very little. In fact, the Dolphins rushed for 222 yards in a 17-15 win against the Raiders two years ago.

Was Miami in a battle with the non-conference Bears? No. Is 5-5 Miami in a battle with 5-5 Oakland? Yes. For the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Other teams are ahead of them, but they can only control what they can control. TAKE MIAMI PLUS

JIM FEIST

MIAMI DOLPHINS / OAKLAND RAIDERS
PLAY: OAKLAND RAIDERS

Miami (5-5 SU/ATS) is not fancy for Coach Tony Sporano. They play a ball control offense, mix in the Wildcat and play a physical defense. The problem now is that they are down to their tird-string quarterback, with QB Chad Henne (9 TDs, 11 INTs) and Chad Pennington gone. Third string QB Tyler Thigpen (1 TDs, 2 INTs) was terrible in his first start, a 16-0 loss at home to the Bears. The offseason addition of Brandon Marshall gives them a Pro Bowl target, but he has only one score. This is still a run-first offense, 21st in the NFL, while the defense is 6th. They.5?ve been an up and down team with a tough schedule. Defensively new coordinator Mike Nolan is a good upgrade, a proponent of blitzing, as is new linebacker Karlos Dansby. Over the past five weeks, the Dolphins have allowed two 300-yard passers (Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger) and 6 passing touchdowns. The Raiders (5-5 SU/6-4 ATS) are riding a 4-2 SU/ATS run, showing some life. QB Jason Campbell (7 TDs, 6 INTs) was lousy early on, but seems to have settled down. They topped the first place Chiefs in OT, 23-20, despite 3 turnovers. The Raiders are getting healthy, too, with Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (sprained right ankle) and leading receivers Zach Miller (sore foot) and Louis Murphy (bruised lung) back. Raiders new offense coordinator Hue Jackson wants offensive balance. The Raiders are tough at home and I don't see them having any problem here today against the third string QB for Miami. Take the Raiders.

DAVE COKIN

PITTSBURGH STEELERS / BUFFALO BILLS
PLAY: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Bills have played much better lately, but now they have to face a superior team that got it together in a big way last week. The Steelers snapped out of what was a bit of a funk and stomped Oakland, and I see them doing pretty much the same thing here. Steelers minus the points for Sunday's free opinion.

SPORTS WAGERS

BUFFALO +6½ +1.00 over Pittsburgh

The Bills are paying off like a broken slot machine lately and it is no coincidence that their ‘never-say-die’ attitude has coincided with the insertion of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. His enthusiasm has spilled over and was never more evident than in last week’s enormous comeback and ultimate pounding of the Bengals. If Pittsburgh comes in here expecting a pushover, they’d better think again. With the Steelers long list of injured players, both on and off the field and with a huge tilt upcoming next week in Baltimore, they’ll have anything but an easy time of it here. Play: Buffalo +6½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO +3½ over Philadelphia

One may have to do a double take in discovering that the Bears are tied for 2nd overall in the NFC, alongside such teams as these visiting Eagles, the Saints and the Packers. That’s because footballers tend to focus upon Chicago’s underachieving offence while failing to recognize its stingy defensive aptitude. The Bears have given up a league-low 146 points while relinquishing just six passing touchdowns on the year. Eagles are definitely amongst class of NFC but after two feature games, both against division rivals, we don’t see the logic in having them favored at this venue. Play: Chicago +3½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Jacksonville +7 over NY GIANTS

Even the Jaguars must be surprised to find themselves atop their division but wins build confidence and with three straight now, prefer psyche of this squad to a battered Giants team being asked to spot a slew of points. The G-men are minus their top receivers, a pair of key linemen and have now benched their best runner, Ahmad Bradshaw (fumblitis), in favor of the led-footed Brandon Jacobs. Both teams have identical 6-4 records but the Jaguars view their mark with pride and continued determination while New York views theirs as somewhat of a failure. Play: Jacksonville (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).