RANDALL THE HANDLE
BEST BETS (16-15-2)
Steelers (7-3) at Bills (8-2)
The Bills are paying off like a broken slot machine lately and it is no coincidence that their ‘never-say-die’ attitude has coincided with the insertion of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. His enthusiasm has spilled over and was never more evident than in last week’s enormous comeback and ultimate pounding of the Bengals. If Pittsburgh comes in here expecting a pushover, they’d better think again. With the Steelers long list of injured players, both on and off the field and with a huge tilt upcoming next week in Baltimore, they’ll have anything but an easy time of it here. TAKING: BILLS +6
Eagles (7-3) at Bears (7-3)
One may have to do a double take in discovering that the Bears are tied for 2nd overall in the NFC, alongside such teams as these visiting Eagles, the Saints and the Packers. That’s because footballers tend to focus upon Chicago’s underachieving offence while failing to recognize its stingy defensive aptitude. The Bears have given up a league-low 146 points while relinquishing just six passing touchdowns on the year. Eagles are definitely amongst class of NFC but after two feature games, both against division rivals, we don’t see the logic in having them favoured at this venue. TAKING: BEARS +3½
Jaguars (6-4) at Giants (6-4)
Even the Jaguars must be surprised to find themselves atop their division but wins build confidence and with three straight now, prefer psyche of this squad to a battered Giants team being asked to spot a slew of points. The G-men are minus their top receivers, a pair of key linemen and have now benched their best runner, Ahmad Bradshaw (fumblitis), in favour of the led-footed Brandon Jacobs. Both teams have identical 6-4 records but the Jaguars view their mark with pride and continued determination while New York views theirs as somewhat of a failure. TAKING: JAGUARS +7
THE REST:
Vikings (3-7) at Redskins (5-5)
Just because Dallas achieved consecutive wins after disposing of its head coach and promoting within, doesn’t mean same formula works here. Brett Favre has destroyed this team and locker room issues remain as long as he remains his diva self. ‘Skins ball hawking DeAngelo Hall should be good for a pick or two. TAKING: REDSKINS -1½
Titans (5-5) at Texans (4-6)
LINE: HOUSTON BY 6½
“With the 176th pick, the Tennessee Titans select QB Rusty Smith from Florida Atlantic University.” Not exactly marquee. Those words were uttered this past April and now young Rusty will be forced to start for the reeling Titans. Circus in Tennessee has them as high risk right now and doubly so against potent foe. TAKING: TEXANS –6½
Chargers (5-5) at Colts (6-4)
This is the time of year when the Chargers shine and right on cue, they are doing just that. After sloppy start, San Diego’s on a roll with a three-game win streak and taking any points offered to them now is the prudent play. Colts are tough at home but patchwork roster showing signs of unraveling. TAKING: SAN DIEGO +3
Panthers (1-9) at Browns (3-7)
The Browns have played just one team with a losing record this season and that resulted in a win over the Bengals. Cleveland is on the verge of relevance and part of that maturing process is pulverizing weak opponents like this one. Jake Delhomme will start and should enjoy outing against his old mates. TAKING: BROWNS –10
Buccaneers (7-3) at Ravens (7-3)
Bucs playing well but this will be their fourth road game in five weeks and it takes place prior to hosting the Falcons next week in possible showdown for first place in division. Despite equal records, Baltimore has played much stiffer schedule and should outclass and outmuscle this guest. TAKING: RAVENS –7½
Packers (7-3) at Falcons (8-2)
NFC Championship preview? Strong case could be made for either side here but when push comes to shove, we’ll lean to an Atlanta squad that has lost just once in past 20 at the Georgia Dome under QB Matt Ryan’s guidance. TAKING: FALCONS –1½
Dolphins (5-5) at Raiders (5-5)
The Dolphins won’t quit on their coach but you need talent to compete and right now, Miami appears void of skill position players at receiver and quarterback. Oakland should be able to control game on the ground as Miami’s stop unit appears to be tiring. TAKING: RAIDERS – ???
Chiefs (6-4) at Seahawks (5-5)
A pair of first place clubs (don’t bother checking, it’s right) will do battle in this cross conference matchup. Chiefs have struggled on the road with four consecutive losses while Seattle owns 3-1 mark in its home stadium. Seahawks’ only loss here occurred when an inept Charlie Whitehurst had to step in for injured Matt Hasselbeck. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +1½
Rams (4-6) at Broncos (3-7)
Rams could be receiving too much credit here as this price seems awfully short for a St. Louis team that has yet to win on the road this season and has just one victory in past 18 away games. Despite Denver’s poor record, its passing game is enough of a weapon to distance it from St. Louis’ pop gun offence. TAKING: BRONCOS –4
49ers (3-7) at Cardinals (3-7)
Who scheduled this one? Freddy Krueger? Not to worry, a new episode of House is just a couple of clicks away. Obviously, neither side excites us but if you must, prefer home team over lame Niners, who couldn’t even score a point while home to penetrable Tampa defence. TAKING: CARDINALS +1
EZWINNERS
Baltimore Ravens -7.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs have made the most of a very soft schedule this season. Tampa Bay is 7-3 straight up this season with their seven wins coming against teams with a combined 16-44 record. They have not fared well against the good teams in the league as their three losses are against teams with a combined record of 23-8 and those losses have been by an average of more than eighteen points per game. Baltimore provides a huge challenge for Tampa Bay as the Ravens feature the seventh rated defense in the league which should be able to shut down the Tampa offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have the worst rushing defense in the league which should lead to a big game for Baltimore's running back Ray Rice. Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Vikings -1
Expect the firing of Brad Childress to ignite the Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon. We have seen the way Dallas' decision to part ways with its head coach has ignited the Cowboys, and I expect a similar turn of events for Minnesota.
Washington has the absolute worst defense in the league, allowing 411.1 yards per game. This fired up Minnesota squad should have no trouble moving the chains on Washington's porous unit.
The Skins flat out struggle at home, where they are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19. These struggles haven't just come against good teams either. Consider that the Redskins are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. It has also been wise to fade the Skins as a small pup as they are just 2-7-6 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 3.0 or fewer points.
Talent-wise, much like Dallas, Minnesota is a better team than its record leads you to believe. Expect the Vikes to show up today, as they take the field delighted to be done with Chilly.
Chip Chirimbes
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants -7
The word in New York is that the Giants who have lost their last two are in such terrible shape physically (offensive line injuries and three receivers out) that players are volunteering to switch from defense to offense. The Giants were No. 1 in total defense in the NFL entering their contest against the Eagles last week and David Garrard is no Michael Vick. With the home support and November weather in New York the Giants take advantage.
James Patrick Sports
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Beginning with their years in the AFL in the Sixties, the Dolphins were winless in all eight games in Oakland before notching a victory in 1997. Sparkplug QB Bruce Gradkowski returned to action last week in the Raiders while Dolphins 3rd-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen is just (1-12) straight up as a starter in this league. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is Oakland Raiders.
Scott Rickenbach
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
Prediction: New York Giants
The Giants are off of a loss on Sunday Night football as they fell short at Philadelphia after rallying to take the lead in the fourth quarter! We like to take good teams off of a loss and New York certainly falls into that category. Too many mistakes cost the Giants in their loss at Philly and we don't see that being repeated in a game this week where they host a Jacksonville team off of a win but still not impressive on the season...at least not in our books! The Jags have struggled on the road this season.
Yes, Jacksonville has a 2-2 record away from home but the two losses came by a combined 47 points while their two wins came against struggling teams! Dallas and Buffalo are a combined 5-15 on the season and those teams were even playing worse when the Jags dispatched of each club earlier this season. Jacksonville, since they're in first in the AFC South, is commanding some respect from the betting markets here. As a result, we are getting fantastic line value with a Giants team that is fired up for a huge performance on their home field. Consider a small play on the New York Giants minus the big points on Sunday afternoon.
MTi Sports
Packers at Falcons
Play: Over
The Falcons are 8-0 OU (18.8 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick at home after playing as a favorite and the Packers 7-0 OU (16.9 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week on the road. In addition, Green Bay is 6-0 OU on the road after a straight up win on the road, flying over by an average of 20.2 ppg. Take these two OVER.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Bucs at Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens
Look for Tampa Bay's seven-game ATS win streak on the road to come to a halt here. The Ravens are a perfect 6-0 ATS after scoring 30 or more points their previous game and 9-1 ATS coming off a win by three touchdowns or more. Lay the points.
Michael Alexander
Panthers vs. Browns
Play: Under 37.5
In a battle of losing teams the Carolina Panthers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns in an NFL Picks contest. Both NFL Picks teams have struggled on offense having to use six different starting quarterbacks between them this season.
Today the Browns turn to Delhomme under center and that has the Panthers happy as he didn't do well when he lead Carolina and he will be facing a pass defense that isn't that bad.
Cleveland’s offense passes for less than 200 yards per game while Cleveland’s defense allows only 3.9 yards per carry. The Carolina ground game is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry.
Supporting Angles: CLEVELAND is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992. CAROLINA is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
Neither offense lights it up while they will be facing not the best, but decent defenses.
Frank Jordan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -7
Who would of though this would be a battle of 7-3 teams. Sure it isn't surprising Baltimore is 7-3, but Tampa Bay! Tampa Bay has been playing great by managing the game and not taking too many risks that lead to turnovers and losses. In this one though look for the Ravens stealthy defense to dominate Tampa Bay's offense and win going away. Play Baltimore
Tom Stryker
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -1.5
Since knocking off Green Bay back on November 1st, 2009, Minnesota hasn't been able to do anything on the road posting a disturbing 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS record in its last nine on foreign soil. Respect is certainly given to that quick trend but it won't be enough to pull me off the Vikings.
Head coach Brad Childress was dismissed this week and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will take over on the sidelines. There's a breath of fresh air in the Minny locker room right now and this coaching change could easily spark a Vikings bunch that came within one game of the Super Bowl last season
After getting pounded by Philadelphia on Monday night two weeks ago, Washington (+7) bounced back by upsetting Tennessee last Sunday by the final of 19-16. Don't be surprised if the Redskins revert to their old form here. At home matched up against an opponent that enters without momentum off a straight up loss, Washington has struggled something fierce posting an ugly 13-22 SU and 9-26 ATS record.
According to my NFL database, game 11 home teams that enter with a 5-5 SU record are a weak 24-39-5 ATS including a woeful 5-16-1 ATS in this role facing a foe that checks in without momentum off back-to-back SU losses. That doesn't bode well for the Skins either. The Vikings own plenty of talent on both sides of the ball to pull off this minor upset and they'll get the job done. Take Minnesota.
SEAN MURPHY
Packers @ Falcons
PICK: Over 47.5
Do your line shopping for this one and you may be able to find the total at 47 before kickoff.
Even at 47.5, I still see value in playing the over.
These two teams met two years ago - with the same QB matchup between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. The Falcons won that game 27-24 in Green Bay, and the two QBs combined to throw five touchdowns. Don't be surprised if we see another shootout on Sunday afternoon.
This total easily could have opened at 50 were it not for the Packers lights out defensive performances over the last few games. They've given up a grand total of 10 points over their last three contests. Keep in mind, they haven't faced an offense as dynamic as the Falcons over that stretch.
As good as the Packers defense has played, the Falcons should still get their points here at home. Note that they've scored at least 26 points in four of their five home games this season. They're in top form right now, having scored 39, 27, 26, and 34 points over their last four games.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is coming off his best two games of the season, throwing for nearly 600 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions in blowout wins over the Cowboys and Vikings. He should be able to feast on a Falcons defense that has allowed a whopping 13 passing touchdowns over the last five games.
This is one of those games where both teams should employ aggressive offensive gameplans, knowing that they're going to need touchdowns, not field goals in order to win the game. As long as the losing team gets to 24 points, we can't lose our bet - and that's a favorable proposition in a game featuring two high-powered offenses. Take the over.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Texans -6
With injuries at the QB position, Tennessee will look to go to its running game more than usual. This plays right into Houston's hands as it is solid against the run (107.8 ypg). The Houston defense will be better than normal against Tennessee's one-dimensional attack, so a pretty-explosive Texans offense should be able to do the rest to cover this number. Tennessee is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games following 2 or more consecutive losses, losing by an average of 8.7 points in this spot. Edge Houston. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Broncos -3.5
Motivated by Monday's embarrassing loss to division rival San Diego, expect the Broncos to notch their 7th straight home win against an NFC opponent. It is certainly to our benefit that Denver's opponent is St. Louis, which is just 1-16 in its last 17 road contests. Denver passes the football as well as any team in the league, and that spells trouble for the Rams. St. Louis is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 in road games versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt. Take Denver.
O.C. Dooley
Chargers +2.5
As great a quarterback as Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning has been, for some reason he has always struggled against the defensive schemes of tonight’s opponent. In the past five years Manning’s power rating against San Diego (77.5) is by far the LOWEST versus any opponent he has ever faced. One has to question the collective psyche of the Colts this evening as this franchise has suffered some brutal defeats in front of their own fans at the expense of the Chargers. Back in 2005 Indianapolis was the talk of the league with an undefeated “12-0” record, but visiting San Diego ended up snapping that streak. At the conclusion of the 2008 regular season, the streaking Colts once again were making national headlines courtesy of a “nine-game” winning streak, only to have that massive run come to an end by a slim “four point” margin in the postseason against none other than the Chargers. Once again the following year during the playoffs, Indianapolis saw their season come to a bitter end as San Diego prevailed in an OVERTIME thriller. The last time Indianapolis defeated San Diego outright in front of the HOME fans was way back in 2004 in what turned out to be yet another OVERTIME affair where the Colts certainly were less than dominating. As mentioned earlier in this analysis Indianapolis has been dealing with a rash of offensive injuries which three weeks ago shelved Manning’s favorite target Dallas Clark with a season-ending broken bone in his wrist. Last Sunday Colts wideout Austin Collie (50 receptions, 6 touchdowns) suffered his second “concussion” of the season and is now sidelined again for an indefinite period. Being thrust into the Colts spotlight is “undrafted rookie” wide receiver Blair White who actually overcame a shoulder injury to play last week at New England. Even though the Colts have won 19 of the past 20 chances in front of their own fans, they are a money-burning 5-16 ATS/HOME when shaking off a CLOSE loss of “6 or less” points in the prior game. In this series San Diego is 4-1 outright in their past five matchups with Indianapolis, which makes me wonder if the correct side is actually favored. The Chargers offense is getting a boost this evening with the expected return of wide receiver Vincent Jackson (68 receptions, 9 touchdowns in 2009) for the first time following a contract holdout and an NFL imposed three-game suspension. It has been yet another late-season surge for the Chargers who have strung together 3 consecutive victories after getting off to a horrible 2-5 start. My database research indicates that San Diego is on a massive 17-3 ATS roll when facing an opponent from the AFC South. Amazingly San Diego is 12-1 ATS/ROAD in their last 13 visits to Indianapolis