Larry Ness
Baltimore -7
In the interests of "full disclosure," going against the Bucs has hurt me more than a few times this season. However, I'm going to "try again," with a small play here on the Ravens. Coming off a 2-14 (6-10 ATS) season in 2009, the Bucs have been one of the NFL's better 'stories' in 2010. They are 7-3 SU and ATS in 2010 and the team's play on the road has been OUTSTANDING, even going back into last year's 'disaster.' Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road this season, extending the team's poinstspread run on the road to 9-1 since the mid-2009 season. However, one can't overlook look this fact. Tampa Bay's seven wins in 2010 have come against opponents with a combined 16-44 (.267) SU record. In comparison. the team's three losses have come against the 7-3 Steelers, now 8-3 Saints and the 8-2 Falcons, teams which are 23-8 (.742). Clearly, the 7-3 Ravens will test the Bucs in this one. The Bucs own the NFL's 29th-ranked rush D (136.5 YPG / 4.8 YPC) and while Rice and Co. have not run the ball as well as last year (with Flacco and his improve receivers becoming a bigger part of the offense), this will be a good opportunity to get that running game untracked. The Ravens and Steelers are tied atop the AFC North at 7-3 and while the Ravens have already won in Pittsburgh, they surely realize there will be little 'margin of error" in the race for the division's top-spot or even for a wild card berth. Either the Jets or Pats seem likely to get one of the only two wild card berths available in the AFC, so there will be a "mad scramble" for that final one. Ravens can't afford to lose here at home vs the Bucs and I'm betting that like vs Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Atlanta, the Bucs fall 'short' against this level of competition.
Joel Tyson
Minnesota at WASHINGTON (+1)
As for you free play, going to continue to go against the Minnesota Vikings as they are now the slight favorite in Washington.
Minnesota is winless on the road this season, and has now lost 9 straight road games dating back to last year. The Vikings are also on an 0-5 spread slide their last 5 games, and at 3-7 are pretty much done for the year.
Washington rebounded from their Monday night debacle against the Eagles with a gritty road overtime win at Tennessee to level their mark to 5-5 for the season.
Going with the Redskins to continue the Minnesota nightmare of a season.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Stephen Nover
Minnesota (+1') at WASHINGTON
Call it a hunch, but I see the Vikings playing hard and well in this matchup now that they're finally free from Brad Childress, a coach that many of the players hated and didn't respect.
There was constant conflict in the locker room because of Childress. Look for the Vikings to play hard for Leslie Frazier just like the Cowboys did for Jason Garrett in their first game under him following the firing of Wade Phillips.
The Vikings are just 3-7, but they have out-yarded their opponents by more than 200 yards. Turnovers have plagued Minnesota. But Brett Favre, free from Childress, can hurt a vulnerable Redskins secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense and will be without their best defensive back, safety LeRon Landry, and maybe their best cover corner, Carlos Rogers.
Washington is weak, too, in run defense ranking 27th. So expect big things from Adrian Peterson.
Favre has committed 22 turnovers, but Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb is past his prime also. He has a 10-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Redskins are down to their third-string tailback and have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line.
Washington is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 home games.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Minnesota (-1) at WASHINGTON
Can’t help but think the firing of coach Brad Childress – probably the most hated coach in his locker room in the league – is going to bring about a spirited effort from Minnesota. Certainly, the coaching change helped the Cowboys, who won back-to-back games post-Wade Phillips and nearly rallied to upset the Saints on Thanksgiving.
By all accounts, Vikings interim coach/defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is extremely well-respected both in and out of the locker room, and because of that, I expect Minnesota to rise up and play one of its best games of the year. And it certainly seems like the oddsmakers and wise guys are with me in that prediction, as the Vikings have lost nine straight road games (including last year’s NFC Championship Game loss at the Saints) and are 3-7 overall this season, while the Redskins are 5-5, and yet money has been pouring in on Minnesota.
Washington is coming off yet another three-point game (19-16 overtime win over the Titans), meaning half of its 10 games have been decided by exactly three points (and two others were decided by five and six points). However, only once all season have the Redskins won (or covered) consecutive games, and both those wins were fluky (Washington knocked out Michael Vick early in a 17-12 win at Philadelphia, then came back the next week and beat the Packers 16-13 at home, only because Green Bay’s kicker hit the upright with a game-winning field-goal attempt at the end of regulation).
The Redskins have been a horrible favorite recently, cashing just once in their last nine as a chalk and going 0-6 ATS in their last six as a home favorite. They’re also 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 at home overall and 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 when hosting losing teams.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh at BUFFALO (+7)
Pittsburgh has plenty of offensive line injuries, and I am not so sure they can get on top of this road impost, as the Steelers are on a 3-7-1 spread slide their last 11 when laying points away from friendly Heinz Field.
This is also a definite look-ahead spot for the Men of Steel, as they have a huge road game at Baltimore up next.
Pittsburgh escapes with the win, but this one will be a lot closer than the linemakers expect.
Take the Bills to get you the bills!
2♦ BUFFALO
Stephen Nover
Pittsburgh at BUFFALO (+6')
After opening 0-5 while being outscored by 74 points, the Buffalo Bills lost any little respect they might have had. Since then, though, the Bills have become a solid money-maker going 4-1 ATS.
There has been nothing fluky about it. The Bills lost two three-point games, each in overtime to Baltimore and Kansas City. They also lost to the Bears by three points. Those three teams are a combined 20-10. Buffalo then beat Detroit, which ironically was its only non-cover during this stretch, and then came back from a 28-7 road deficit to knock off Cincinnati, 49-31.
The Steelers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as it was early in the season before star lineman Aaron Smith was lost for the season and safety Troy Polamalu wasn't slowed by a leg injury.
Sparked by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills have put up at least 26 points in half of their past eight games. Fred Jackson is a very underrated all-purpose back and Steve Johnson and Lee Evans are good targets for Fitzpatrick.
Ben Roethlisberger has played well since coming back from suspension. Mike Wallace is having a breakout season with six touchdowns in the last six games, but Pittsburgh has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line.
The Bills can be counted on to give a good effort. They can keep this one close.
1♦ BUFFALO
Craig Davis
Jacksonville at NY GIANTS (-7)
Gonna side with the Giants as your free play of the day for two reasons.
First, they're at home. The Jags are much easier to trust at home when the weather is relatively nice. Second, the Giants have so many injuries on both sides of the ball that the line should have moved a few points... it hasn't moved an inch.
Isn't that a bit strange that the Giants have that many injuries and Vegas feels as if the line needs to stay the same?
How many times have you seen this scenario... a team loses a few key players, bettors jump on the other side and Vegas makes a lot of money?
It happens all the time. Opposing teams don't necessarily know how to gameplan against some of these backups and it gives the Giants a distinct advantage.
And remember, the Jags can't stop the run and the Giants still have Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Expect a heavy dose of the running game early on to soften the defense for the play action pass.
And if you're worried about the fact that Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks won't be playing don't be. The Giants still have TE Kevin Boss, WR Mario Manningham and Derek Hagan, and RB Ahmad Bradshaw who are all more than capable of catching the ball and making something happen afterwards.
The price is right for me to lay it with the Giants at home as your free play of the day.
3♦ NY GIANTS
Derek Mancini
Tampa Bay (+7') at BALTIMORE
Match up that's a lot closer than oddsmakers want you to believe. Bucs have proven their mettle, and now face a true litmus test on the road in the Ravens today. Key to this game will be how well the Bucs defense plays coming off one of their best - if not their best - defensive performance this season. Tampa not only shutout the 49ers, but held them to just 189 total yards. Now granted, the Ravens offense is far more explosive, but that's exactly the kind of effort you want to see prior to this huge match up.
For all you Ravens-backers out there, its important to note the Bucs run D has actually been markedly better over their L3 games, allowing just 106 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry - this improvement is huge considering today's match up with the Ravens' Rice/McGahee combo. Limiting Frank Gore to 23 yards on 12 carries was a huge feather in the cap of this Bucs stop unit, and I expect another strong effort today.
Its doesn't take a brain surgeon to tell you the Ravens D lives off turnovers, but they'll be hard-pressed to create them against Josh Freeman, who has just 5 picks in his 388 pass attempts. It doesn't hurt that the Bucs run game has also shown some signs of life either, as LaGarrette Blount has been great, and Cadillac Williams seems much better suited in his new 3rd down role. Ravens are great against the run, but if Blount can at least keep them honest, then Freeman will keep this game competitive. Take Tampa Bay plus the points over Baltimore Sunday.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Joel Tyson
Tampa Bay (+7') at BALTIMORE
Life in Tampa is pretty darn good these days, as the Bucs enter play today having won their last pair, and stand at 7-3 overall for the season.
Very interested in taking the points with these "road warriors", as Raheem Morris' team has covered all 5 of their road games this season, and have now covered 7 in a row away from home dating back to last season.
Baltimore is fresh off their demolition of Carolina, but the Ravens have been less than reliable when asked to cover points this season, as Baltimore is no better than 3-3 this year when installed as the favorite.
Josh Freeman and his young cast of supporting talent are plenty confident these days, and the Buccaneers defense is fresh off pitching a shutout on the road last week in San Francisco.
The travel may get to them eventually, but taking Tampa Bay plus the points is the way to go if you ask me.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Chris Jordan
Tampa Bay (+7') at BALTIMORE
Still no respect for this viable playoff candidate that is heading to Baltimore to play one of the more challenging teams in the league. And though I'm a fan of the Ravens defense and love watching Ray Lewis and Ed Reed work together, I can't see them laying this many points in this game.
And after watching Tampa Bay up close and seeing Josh Freeman work his comeback magic, I know how this team likes to win in the fourth quarter. Thus, I don't think the Buccaneers will ever be out of this game tonight.
Realistically, the only chance the Ravens have to win and cover this game is by opening up a big enough lead to dominate and blow out the Buccaneers. And I don't see that happening.
In fact, I don't see the Ravens getting a double-digit lead on Tampa, which means Freeman and running back Legarrette Blount will always be in this football game.
The Bucs' running game is going to be my key, as time control will be on my side. Tampa Bay is averaging more than 140 yards in the last five games. Blount has rushed for three touchdowns and 411 yards during that stretch.
This is going to be a closer game than the oddsmakers perceive. Take the pointsn with Tampa Bay, which I see getting 7' points. In the event the line drops, to +7, buy the half point back up.
5♦ TAMPA BAY
Michael Cannon
Green Bay at ATLANTA (-2)
Take the Falcons as the small home chalk over the Packers.
This is the marquee game of the day and I just can’t go against the Falcons at home.
Atlanta is 18-1 SU and 13-5-1 ATS since Mike Smith and Matt Ryan came to town. This also marks the only home game in a five-week span, so you know the Falcons are going to be up for this matchup.
It’s not like they need any motivation to get up for the Packers.
Green Bay is having a great year, but this could actually be a bit of a letdown for them.
That’s because the Packers are coming off an emotionally charged road destruction of the Vikings last week. Anytime Green Bay goes against Brett Favre it’s a big deal for the Pack, and to have an effort like last week means it’s going to be difficult to reach that emotional high again.
The Packers are basically just a passing team now and it will allow a good defensive team like Atlanta to concentrate solely on one aspect of their game.
That tied in with the fact the Falcons are almost impossible to beat at home makes Atlanta the play.
Lay the points with the Falcons.
4♦ ATLANTA
Derek Mancini
Green Bay (+2) at ATLANTA
Big game for both teams here, but given the line, I'm inclined to play the Pack. Why? Because obviously oddsmakers are asking for Falcons money, being that you can get them at less than field goal, in Atlanta, off 4 straight wins (3 of which came at home). Seems like a bargain, but only to those who haven't seen this Green Bay defense play lately.
Packers have allowed 10 total points over their L3 games, including a shutout of the Jets on the road, a TD to Dallas, and a field goal to the rival Vikings in Minnesota! Note, two of those 3 impressive defensive efforts came in hostile territory, so don't tell me the Packers can't limit the Falcons today on the road!
Both quarterbacks are excellent, and both have plenty of talent at WR. But where the misperception comes in is when bettors believe the Falcons have a superior run game. Falcons may have superior talent at the running back position, but if you look at the stats, neither one of these run game is great. Both average 4.1 yards per carry on the season. In fact Falcons are averaging just 6 more rushing yards per game over their L3 games (109 to 103)... So let's put that misperception to rest, especially when you consider how well the Packers stop unit is playing (83 rushing yards/game L3 games).
I know all about Matt Ice's ridiculous 18-1 lifetime record at the Georgia Dome, but so do the oddsmakers. My point is they're playing the public like a fiddle with this line, saying: "how can you not take Matt Ryan at this price at home?" Well boys, you can either do what oddmsakers expect, or you can grab a few points with a Packers team playing superior football. This game is won by the better defense, and that edge goes to the Pack. Green Bay plus the points over Atlanta Sunday.
2♦ GREEN BAY
Chuck O'Brien
Green Bay at ATLANTA (-2)
For Sunday’s second of two NFL complimentary selections, take the Falcons over Green Bay.
18-1 SU and 13-5-1 ATS. That’s the Falcons’ home record in games Matt Ryan has started since the young QB entered the league three years ago. It’s truly a remarkable record, and you have to keep riding it, especially when Atlanta is laying such a small number.
Obviously, Green Bay is an elite team, having followed up a 1-3 slump with a current four-game SU and ATS winning streak, with the defense yielding a total of 10 points the last three weeks. That said, Atlanta has also won four in a row and eight of nine, going 6-3 ATS along the way.
Both these teams are very even statistically, with one exception: rushing the football and stopping the run. Green Bay is getting out-rushed 112.1-100.5 ypg, while the Falcons are netting 129 rushing ypg and allowing 95.4 rushing ypg. And when you focus only on the home-road stats, Green Bay averages just 86 rushing ypg and yields 106 ypg in visiting stadiums while Atlanta nets 144 rushing ypg at the Georgia Dome and yields just 89.7 ypg.
One final thing: The Falcons embark on a brutal late-season three-game road trip after today, making this home game all the more important! Atlanta (best record in the NFC, 10-4 ATS last 14 overall) gets that victory by controlling the football via the running game and keeping Packers QB Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines for extended periods.
3♦ ATLANTA
Scott Delaney
Green Bay (+2) at ATLANTA
This is a late kickoff, on the perfect game for Sunday night.
Let's take a look at Green Bay as your free winner.
I am not a believer of those who claim the Falcons are the No. 1 team in the league; I don't care what any power ratings say!
The Packers have come alive and suddenly look like the preseason favorite everyone said they'd be, while Aaron Rodgers is begining to play like an MVP quarterback. The team has won four straight and has enough momentum coming into this conference showdown to challenge the Falcons for the outright win.
Make note, the Falcons' losses came against the Steelers and Eagles, and granted, they were both on the road, but they still couldn't handle the top-notch competition.
And I think the Packers are benefitting right now because of these Falcons and Michael Vick and the surging Eagles. Mike McCarthy's bunch is flying under the radar, as it brings regular-season road streaks of 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 ATS into this game.
And in their last three games the Packers have given up seven or less points in each contest.
I'll take the points here.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Miami (+2') at OAKLAND
For my comp selection, both of these teams looked pathetic last week with the Dolphins getting shutout at home and the Raiders getting blasted in Pittsburgh. I expect Miami to come back with a solid gameplan and use the running game to get QB Tyler Thigpen some easier throws today that will lead them to a win in Oakland.
The Dolphins will look to establish the run after a season-low 39 rushing yards last week against the Bears. They will also need to run the ball because top WR Brandon Marshall is not expected to play today. Miami has won seven of eight against the Raiders, including the last four trips to Oakland. And remember, this team is 4-1 on the road and has seemed to play much better away from home this season.
Oakland was dominated by Pittsburgh last week, losing 35-3 and getting outplayed in every aspect of the game. That snapped a three-game winning streak and maybe brought a dose of reality to the Raiders. They run the ball well, but the Dolphins defense allows just 106.8 yards rushing per game on the road.
The Raiders are on ATS skids of 6-20 as a favorite and 1-11 as a home favorite. On the other side, the Dolphins are on ATS runs of 7-1 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 on the road overall, 9-2 as a ‘dog anywhere and 7-2 coming off a non-cover.
Grab the points to play it safe, but look for the Dolphins to win this one outright. Play Miami today.
3♦ MIAMI
Michael Cannon
San Diego (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
Take the points with the Chargers tonight over the Colts.
San Diego looks like its ready to make its second half run while injuries look like they are starting to catch up to the Colts.
The Chargers have won four of the last five meetings with the Colts, including twice in the playoffs.
Indy is on a 1-12 ATS slide in this series and Peyton Manning is just 16-26 ATS in his career off a loss.
The Chargers are 16-4 SU and 17-3 ATS versus the AFC South, including 11-1 ATS off a SU win.
San Diego coach Norv Turner is 32-11 SU and 28-14-1 ATS from Game 6 on since coming to the Chargers.
Take the points with the Chargers as they get it done over the Colts.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City (-1') at HOUSTON
For my comp selection, already winners of five in a row on the highway, the Thunder will make it six in a row when they beat up the Rockets tonight in Houston. Go ahead and lay the small points and go with Oklahoma City in this one.
The Thunder were down 14 points Friday night in the third quarter but rallied to beat Indiana 110-106 as Russell Westbrook scored a career-high 43 points. Westbrook and Kevin Durant make a dynamic duo and are certainly the best young tandem in the NBA. Even though the Thunder have lost 10 straight when visiting Houston, they will prevail tonight thanks to their two stars and the Rockets inability to stop anybody.
Houston has lost five of six, including Friday’s 99-89 loss to Charlotte with the starting five shooting 34.7 percent from the floor. The Rockets allow 107.3 points per game and will have trouble keeping up with the Thunder.
Houston is on ATS skids of 9-23 at home, 1-5 overall, 3-11 against teams with a winning percentage better than 600 and 3-7 on Sundays. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is on positive ATS surges of 5-0 on the road, 6-1 overall, 4-1 after a day off and 23-9-1 as a road chalk of up to 4 ½ points.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chris Jordan
Indiana at LOS ANGELES (-9)
The Lakers on a Sunday night seems to be magical money. It's a system I'll play all the time every year. I'll always lead my analysis that way too. I won't look at the opponent, I won't look at the spread, I won't analyze the matchup... I'll just pencil in the Lakers on a Sunday night at home!
Then I'll go read about the game.
So what did I find?
Well, the Lakers are laying -9 points to Indiana... no surprise there, as they've never lost at Staples Center against the Pacers, who are opening a four-game road trip.
Nice way to do so, on the road on a Sunday against the two-time defending champs.
The Lakers, who are 8-1 at Staples Center this season, have won 11 straight games in Los Angeles against Indiana, their longest active home winning streak over an opponent.
The Lakers, winners of 17 of the last 18 meetings in Los Angeles, haven't lost to the Pacers at home in more than 11 years.
Last season, Los Angeles outscored Indiana by an average of 22.5 points in winning both games. Both Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol played limited minutes due to the onslaught, yet the 12-time All-Star guard averaged 26.5 points and 6.5 assists while Gasol averaged 17.5 points and 14.5 rebounds.
Indiana has played a league-low five road games this season, so a bit of a shell-shock with this one tonight, as the Sunday crowd at Staples is always rowdy. Since Nov. 13, Indiana is 3-0 against opponents with losing records, but 1-3 against teams over .500.
Lay the chalk with the Lakers.
4♦ LOS ANGELES
Jeff Benton
The reason is pretty simple: Both Seattle and Kansas City have stark home-road splits, so to get the Seahawks (in one of the toughest crowd environments in the entire NFL for visitors) as a pup is value I can’t pass up.
The Seahawks are 3-1 SU and ATS at home, and those three wins were all comfortable (31-6 vs. San Francisco; 27-20 vs. San Diego; 22-10 vs. Arizona). Seattle’s only slip-up at home came three weeks ago, when it fell 41-7 to the red-hot Giants – a “perfect-storm” type of game where everything went right for New York and everything went wrong for the Seahawks, who didn’t have starting QB Matt Hasselbeck (injury) and got outgained by 325 yards.
Kansas City’s first roadie resulted in a lucky 16-14 win at Cleveland in Week 2, but since then the Chiefs have lost four in a row on the highway, most recently getting dumped 49-29 at Denver two weeks ago (as a one-point chalk). What’s more, since starting the season 3-0, the Chiefs are playing sub.-500 football (3-4 SU and ATS).
The home team has won four in a row in this rivalry and is 8-2 SU in the last 10 dating to 1998, when the two squads were AFC West rivals, and the Seahawks are 4-1 in the last five head-to-head clashes in Seattle.
With the Denver loss two weeks ago, Kansas City has failed to cover in four of its last five as a road favorite and is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 as a chalk overall and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven when laying less than three points. Conversely, the Seahawks have covered in four of their last five at home, four of their last five as a home underdog and five of their last six after a SU loss (they got worked 34-19 at New Orleans last week).
Wrong team favored in this one.
5♦ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS