Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 29,2009

Cajun Sports
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Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Under 40.5
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The Washington Redskins head north to the City of Brotherly Love to face the host Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon. This will be the Skins second straight divisional road game after falling in Dallas to the Cowboys by a score of 7 to 6. The Eagles won the first meeting between these two teams in Washington on a Monday night 27 to 17.
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The Philadelphia Eagles have been installed as a 9 point home favorite in this contest and this is the fifth straight game that Washington has been an underdog. This is important to our total because we know that the Redskins have gone ‘under’ the total at a rate of 0-12 as a road underdog of seven or more points when coming off a game where they were an underdog. They are also 3-15 ‘under’ when playing with six or less days rest the last two seasons.
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The fact that the Eagles are a decent offensive team also helps strengthen our total selection because Washington is 6-25 ‘under’ versus teams that are scoring 24 or more points per game during the second half of the season. The Redskins are 1-15 ‘under’ versus teams that average six or more yards per play during the second half of the season.
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The Eagles are 38-62 ‘under’ when facing a team with a losing record. Philly is 0-9-1 ‘under’ as a touchdown or more favorite after a straight up win as a favorite since 2004. The Eagles are 0-8 ‘under’ as a favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
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With significant technical and fundamental support for the under we will play Washington and Philadelphia to fall well below the posted total on Sunday.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Washington – Philadelphia UNDER 40.5

Wunderdog Sports
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Arizona Cardinals +1
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The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Seahawks vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams +4

The Rams come in off a pair of hard fought home losses vs the Saints and Cards. Both teams that are over .500. Today they get a Seattle team that is under .500 and they may be able to pull the upset. They have 28-0 loss revenge from an opening week shellacking in Seattle. Home Dogs if they were a home dog of 7 or more last week and scored 14 or less points if the opponent comes in off a game where they had 100 or less rush yards. These home dogs are 15-4 ats since 1980 and 11-1 the last 12. Seattle is just 2-12 ats as favorites of less than 10 points off a double digit ats loss. Take the Rams plus the four points here today.

Bob Wingerter
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3
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San Francisco has a better blueprint, coaching and morale than Jacksonville. The 49ers can run with Frank Gore, stop the run having allowed an NFL-best 3.3 yards per rush through Week 11, enjoy top-notch special teams and finally have receiving weapons with Vernon Davis and good-looking rookie Michael Crabtree. The key for the 49ers is getting something out of quarterback Alex Smith. Look for Smith to have success against a below-average Jacksonville secondary that again could be missing its best cornerback, Rashean Mathis.The Jaguars also could be missing linebacker Justin Durant. A big reason why Jacksonville is vulnerable through the air is because its pass rush is so weak.The 49ers have been able to withstand an injury to left tackle Joe Staley, their best offensive lineman. Maurice Jones-Drew has 718 totals yard and eight touchdowns in his last five games. He’s a top-10 runner. The Jaguars don’t offer much else on offense. Quarterback David Garrard has just two touchdowns on the road. This is a tough cross-country trip for the Jaguars.The 49ers play hard every week for Mike Singletary.The same can’t be said for the Jaguars.They have not demonstrated that kind of chemistry with their coach, Jack Del Rio.

Marc Lawrence
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
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The Bills will look to avenge a their worst loss of the season, a 38-10 whipping in Miami on October 4th, when they host the Dolphins today. The Fish freeze up when playing in Buffalo during the 2nd half of the season, going 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS, including 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS when off a win. To make matters worse, Miami is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than three points under head coach Tony Sparano. Against its most hated rival, look for Buffalo to pick up it's initial win under new coach Perry Fewell here today.

Alex Smart
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Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: Under 40.5
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The Week 12 NFL slate offers up a tasty NFC East match-up on Sunday when the Washington Redskins (3-7, 3-6-1 ATS) invade the “City of Brotherly Love” to battle the Philadelphia Eagles (6-4, 6-4 ATS). The Eagles cruised to the comfy 27-17 road win and cover on MNF at Washington back in Week 7. The SU and ATS loss snapped the Skins two-game winning streak in the series.
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The Redskins have understandably been machines for 'under' bettors this year thanks to an offense that has been absolutely anemic at times. HC Jim Zorn has gotten very little production from his rushing attack, which is only averaging 104.2 yards per game, and now he'll go into this battle with RBs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. That will put more pressure on QB Jason Campbell to perform, but Campbell has only had two games this season in which he has thrown for more than 260 yards. If there's one thing that Washington can do right, its play defense. The #1 pass defense in the game has been spoiled by a poor offense, or the Skins would be a contender for the playoffs. The Redskins are only averaging allowing 289.7 yards and 17.8 points per game in '09.
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Philadelphia has had plenty of offensive games this season that make you go, "Wow," like its 40-17 blowout of the Giants or the 38-10 smacking of Carolina. But for every impressive game, there is also one that makes you scratch your head, like the 13-9 loss in Oakland and the 20-16 loss to Dallas. HC Andy Reid is going to expect better from his defense today, as the unit has allowed at least 20 points in its L/3 games after only allowing the Saints to reach that plateau against it before November 1st. It should come as no surprise that the Eagles are just 1-2 ATS since that point, and were 5-2 ATS leading up to it.
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The first meeting between these teams nearly found a way to stay 'under' in spite of the fact that 37 combined points were put on the board in the first half. Historically, this is a lower scoring series, as the Skins and Eagles have played to the under in 6 of the L/10 overall meetings (6-3-1 ATS). This is a game Philadelphia can’t afford to give away, and I foresee the Skins struggling to put points on the board much like the first go round. Especially considering a number of their playmakers are now injured. Neither offense should be able to find much traction against the other's defense in what should be another classic NFC East slug fest.

BIG AL
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
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The Colts, certainly, are playing great football, as they've opened the season with 10 straight wins. But they're generally not blowing out opponents, and have won most of their games by single-digits. Indeed, Indy's last four wins have been by an average of 2.5 ppg. One of those victories was against this Houston team, and the Colts defeated the Texans by a 20-17 score. So, Gary Kubiak's men KNOW they can play with the Colts and won't be intimidated by Peyton Manning & Co. Houston has gone 8-4-1 ATS vs. Indy over the last 13 meetings, and fall into a super 61% ATS system on this Sunday. What we want to do is play on any .360 (or better) home underdog off a straight-up loss as a home favorite. Last Monday, Houston was favored by 4 points at home, but was upset by Tennessee. Look for the Texans to rebound here, and hand the Colts their first loss of the season. Take the points.

Alex Grosse
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Arizona Cardinals +3
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After a disastrous 0-6 start, the Titans have bounced back to win 4 in a row. As impressive as Tennessee has been, it is hard to ignore the value we are getting on the Cards as a road underdog. Arizona is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in its 5 road contests this season. Additionally, the Cards are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 contests as an underdog. Kurt Warner suffered a mild concussion last week but it appears that he is good to go. Everyone knows what the Cards can do on offense but their defense is quite underrated and is one of the main reasons why the Cards have been so successful on the road this season. The Cards have allowed an average of only 14.2 points per game and 81.2 rushing yards in their 5 road contests. If Arizona's defense can slow down Chris Johnson then the Cards will win this one. I anticipate that the Cards won't let Tennessee light up the scoreboard and therefore come out with their sixth road victory of the season. Lay the number on Arizona.

Black Widow
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1* on Chicago Bears +11
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Chicago should have no problem staying within 10 points of the Vikings Sunday. The Bears have hit a rut of late, but they are still a very solid team and their recent struggles only provide us with some line value this weekend. The Bears have lost back-to-back games by 4 points each, so they've been competitive but they have just come up short in the end. Jay Cutler has averaged 271 passing yards/game over his last 3 games, so he is getting it done through the air. The Vikings' biggest weakness is their pass defense, so Cutler is in line for another big game and we are banking on him taking care of the ball a little better this week and learning from previous mistakes. Minnesota is allowing 262 passing yards/game at home this season, ranking as one of the worst pass defenses in the game. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Vikings are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. This line has clearly been inflated Sunday and we'll take advantage. Take the Bears and the points.

Joseph D'Amico
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -2½
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Watch the line here. Make sure to get the -2½. Even with a concussion, QB Ben Rothlisberger will play. But against the very aggresive Raven's defense, how long can he last? "Big Ben" is already the most sacked QB in the league over the last several seasons. If he does get sidelined, his backup will be Dennis Dixon who hasn't thrown a completion TY. The Steeler "D" will have their hands full with the combo of QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice. Especially without ProBowl Safety Troy Polamalu. Pitt is 1-6 ATS their L7 on the road and 1-4 ATS their L5 in Baltimore. The Raven's cover.

Randall the Handle
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Buccaneers @ Falcons
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This isn’t always so complicated. The Falcons are lousy on the road (1-5) and very strong at home (4-0). The Buccaneers are lousy everywhere. Atlanta returns to the Georgia Dome for only the second time since mid-October and will remain here for the next three weeks. If last year’s surprise playoff team wants to participate in this year’s post-season, it must put together a string of wins and it must start right now, especially with Eagles and Saints on deck. Tampa offers little challenge as it continues to shuffle coaching personnel around while working with a subpar roster. TAKING: Atlanta –11½ RISKING: 2.12 units to win 2
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Steelers @ Ravens
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With Ben Roethlisberger woozy after being concussed last week and Troy Polamalu still out, expect the Ravens to exploit such vulnerability like a pack of lions spotting a wounded antelope. Baltimore will not lack motivation heading into this one as a win would have them tied for second place in the difficult AFC North while a loss will put them in a difficult position for post-season activity. Pittsburgh has been less than lucrative when traveling this year with just one cover in five away games. If Baltimore’s offence and defence ever decide to show up on same day, look out. TAKING: Baltimore –
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Colts @ Texans
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The Texans are as tough as Jello. Laden with talent, they just can’t seem to turn the toughness corner. Even so, we’re going to call for them to finesse their way to a win here against an Indianapolis team that has been winning on a wing and a prayer. While still undefeated, the Colts have won their last four games by a combined 10 points. After bruising game in Baltimore, they must stay on the road and face a Houston team that was a wide-left field goal away from taking Indy to overtime just three weeks ago. Colts coasting with five-game lead in division while Texans are desperate. TAKING: Houston +3 ½ RISKING: 2.2 units to win to 2 Sports Interaction
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THE REST
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Browns @ Bengals
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The Bengals were embarrassed after losing to Raiders last week. The Browns are embarrassing every week. While we fully expect Cincinnati to regain its focus, it is difficult to spot two touchdowns with a team that has exceeded 18 points just once in past six games.TAKING: Cleveland +14
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Bears @ Vikings
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This price may seem a bit steep considering long history with these two. However, current form has them headed in opposite directions and with Chicago adding more to its already long list of wounded, Vikes not afraid to pour it on.TAKING: Minnesota –10 ½
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Redskins @ Eagles
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The Redskins have been badly bitten by the injury bug and with their already limited productivity, things could get progressively worse.. However, Eagles just too erratic to be giving this many points and Washington has only lost once by more than 10 points.TAKING: Washington +9
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Dolphins @ Bills
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Prefer rested and playoff hopeful Dolphins to a Buffalo squad that has basically thrown in the towel. The Bills lost a couple more players last week and may also be without the services of RB Marshawn Lynch. Once a tough out here, the Bills have dropped eight of past nine at the Ralph.TAKING: Miami –3½
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Cardinals @ Titans
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Oddly, the Cardinals are 2-3 at home while sporting a 5-0 road record. Despite their travelling prowess and being Super Bowl runner-up, Arizona still finds itself in underdog role here. Titans definitely improved but we’re not quite ready to grant this much respect.TAKING: Arizona +3
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Seahawks @ Rams
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Not at all interested in giving away points with this sorry Seahawks squad that is a dismal 0-5 both straight up and versus spread on road thus far. To add to its woes, this is Seattle’s third consecutive road game. Short price is justified.TAKING: St. Louis +3
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Panthers @ Jets
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Both quarterbacks might provide opposing team with more points than they do their own.. When the dust settles, we expect Rex Ryan’s bunch to cause more damage as an already shaky Jake Delhomme has makeshift line in front of him.TAKING: NY Jets –3
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Jaguars @ 49ers
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After a three-game winning streak, the Jaguars suddenly find themselves in the playoff hunt but we’re not buying it. Jacksonville’s past three home game victories have occurred by 3-points in each case to the Rams, Chiefs and Bills. This assignment is tougher.TAKING: San Francisco –3
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Chiefs @ Chargers
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Chargers on a roll with five consecutive wins and now find themselves atop AFC West. This might be a flat spot for them after climb and impressive win over Denver last week. Chiefs are showing gradual improvements and figure to be better than 37-7 setback in first meeting.TAKING: Kansas City +14
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Patriots @ Saints
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Very quietly, the Patriots have allowed the second least amount of points in the NFL. As luck would have it, the Saints have scored a league-leading 369 points. Something has to give and that being the case, the better defence combined with a dangerous offence, while getting points is the prudent move here.TAKING: New England +3

SPORTS WAGERS
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HOUSTON +1.61 over Indianapolis
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The Colts are 10-0 and they’re cruising to an easy division championship with no threats in sight. Now after a holiday Thanksgiving in which they didn’t have to worry about a damn thing, they could be very ripe to get beat. These Colts have blown away weak teams but against tough teams they’ve won by the slimmest of margins. The best thing about that is they’ve played four close games in a row that all came down to the final drive and that intensity level definitely takes its toll. The Colts are coming off a bruising 17-15 win over the Ravens last week after that memorable comeback against New England the week before. In its two previous games they barely escaped with wins over these same Texans, 20-17 in Indianapolis and a narrow 18-14 victory over the 49ers, also in Indianapolis. That’s four wins in a row by a combined 10 points and now with virtually nothing at stake, we could certainly see the Colts take a breather. It’s virtually impossible to play with high intensity every game all year long and these Colts have been pushed to the limit in four consecutive games now. Enter the dangerous Texans, who incidentally, outplayed the Colts in that 20-17 loss, and whom is sitting at 5-5. This could be its playoff lives on the line and it says here that they’ll be the more focused team and the more determined team and in the world of the NFL that will almost always get you a win. Play: Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
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TENNESSEE –3 +1.04 over Arizona
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Speaking of teams that could take a “breather”, one need not look further than these Cardinals. They have a comfortable three-game lead in the division and they have games left against Detroit and St. Louis to assist them in their quest to win the division should they need it. Furthermore, they have a big match-up on deck next week against the Vikes and this one is against an AFC opponent on the road, thus, it’s not that crucial. It’s also worth noting that Kurt Warner suffered a mild concussion last week and one solid hit and he could get knocked out again. The Cards are not going to take any chance of leaving him in should that happen. For the Titans, this one is extremely crucial, as they were left for dead four weeks ago but a sudden surge has them in a position to get right back in the playoff picture with a win here. Chris Johnson is in the zone right now and is virtually unstoppable. Vince Young also poses problems with his ability to run. The Cards are good and they’re well balanced but this is not a favorable spot for them and you know they’re going to come up lame sooner or later, as they always do. This looks like the perfect spot for that to happen. Play: Tennessee –3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

DAVE COKIN

WASHINGTON REDSKINS / PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
TAKE: WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Philadelphia is right in the thick of the playoff chase, but the Eagles really havent been that sharp recently. They may not need to be at their top of their game to get the win against the Redskins. But covering a pretty big number is another story entirely.

Washington has had a tough campaign, and theyve already been reduced to playing out the string as far as this season is concerned. But the Redskins have shown plenty of fight lately, and they should be plenty fired up for this rematch after losing to the Eagles by 10 in the earlier meeting.

I just dont see the Eagles playing well enough to be comfortable laying more than a TD. Ill be surprised if the Philly offense has a big day here, so Im basically just hoping the feeble Washington offense can put a couple of scores on the board. Off the very tough loss to Dallas last week, this might stand out as a dead spot for a team going nowhere. But because of the divisional revenge, I dont see this as the likely flat spot for the Redskins, and Im going to rely on their tough stop unit to keep this game tight. Ill take the points with the Redskins for this weeks free NFL play.

JIM FEIST

CHICAGO BEARS / MINNESOTA VIKINGS
TAKE: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Bears (4-6 SU/ATS) arent doing much right and their playoff hopes pretty much went down the tubes after Sundays 24-20 home loss to the Eagles. They are on a 1-4 SU/ATS run and dont match up well in this one. QB Jay Cutler (15 TDs, 18 picks) tries to do too much himself because he has a weak offensive line and below average wideouts. The offense is averaging 21 ppg, ranked 19th overall with no running game (90 yds per game on the ground). There are still question marks with these young wide receivers (Earl Bennett, rookie Johnny Knox). The last two games may have taken the wind out of their sales, a nightmarish loss on the West Coast, 10-6 at the 49ers, as Cutler had no TDs and 5 picks. That was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. Then Sundays home loss to the Eagles, getting outgained 377-284. The defense is 11th overall, without star LB Brian Urlacher, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair his dislocated right wrist. That defense was shredded by Arizona in a pitiful performance, losing 41-21 at home (down 31-7 at the half). Even against the Browns, Cutler was on the run all day and got sacked a season-high four times. All of those problems were on display in a 45-10 loss at Cincinnati, as Cutler threw 3 picks and the defense gave up 448 yards (215 rushing). Minnesota (9-1 SU/7-3 ATS) has tremendous balance on both sides of the ball, with strong offensive and defensive lines. The ground game is outstanding with RBs Adrian Peterson (999 yds) and Chester Taylor, plus veteran QB Brett Favre (21 TDs, 3 INTs) has been a solid game manager on an offense ranked 7th. There is speed at wide out with WRs Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and rookie Percy Harvin. They can rush the passer with DE Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, though they are ranked 17th in total defense. Allen leads the league with 10.5 sacks. Favre completed a career-high 88 percent of his passes for 213 yards and 4 TDs as the Vikings had a 35-9 victory over the Seahawks on Sunday. Even in their only loss, 27-17 at Pittsburgh, they probably should have won, with the edge in yards 386- 259. Look for the Bears to have a long day trying to contain this Vikings running attack and Favre passing. Take the Vikings.