Jimmy Moore
Miami @ Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +3.5
The Bills did respond to the coaching change and play a much better game last time out albeit in a loss. Miami is laying more than a field goal on the road in the division, that is never easy to do especially with the Dolphins missing a big cog at RB. Pride will kick in for the Bills and keep them within this number.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (10-0, 6-3-1 ATS) at Houston (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS)
The Colts, one of only two undefeated teams remaining, make the trek to Reliant Stadium for an AFC South battle with the Texans.
Indianapolis snuck past Baltimore 17-15 Sunday as a one-point road chalk, continuing to show it can win close games, as the last four victories (1-2-1 ATS) have been by a combined 10 points. Despite scoring 20 points or less in three of those games, the Colts are still tied for fourth in the league at 26.9 ppg on the year, and they sit third in total offense (398.5 ypg). Plus, they boast the No. 1 scoring defense, yielding just 15.7 ppg.
Houston fell to Tennessee 20-17 on a last-minute field goal Sunday as a four-point home favorite, ending a 3-0-1 ATS uptick (3-1 ATS). It was the Texans’ second consecutive SU loss – by the same score, as they fell at Indy 20-17 three weeks ago, prior to their bye. QB Matt Schaub leads the third-best passing attack (284 ypg), though Indy is No. 1 (313.5 ypg), and Houston is averaging 23.2 ppg (13th) while allowing 20.8 ppg (16th).
As noted above, Indy took the first meeting this season with Houston 20-17, but the Texans covered as a 7½-point road pup. In fact, the Colts are 9-1 SU in the last 10 clashes, though they are just 4-6 ATS in that span, with Houston cashing in the last two meetings.
The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 division affairs and 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 as a division chalk, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0 on the highway, 4-0 as a road chalk and 4-1 after a spread cover. The Texans are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at Reliant, though they are on ATS rolls of 5-0-1 against winning teams, 5-0 after a pointspread loss, 6-1 after a SU setback, 7-1 getting points and 7-1 as a home pup.
For Indianapolis, the under is on surges of 4-0 in the AFC South, 5-1 in November and 9-3 against AFC foes, and the under for Houston is on rolls of 6-1 overall, 5-0 in the AFC, 4-0 in November and 6-1 as an underdog. However, the over for the Texans is on runs of 12-3-1 after a non-cover, 12-4-1 after a SU loss, 19-7 against winning teams and 20-8 inside the division. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight of the last nine overall and four in a row in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (1-9, 4-6 ATS) at Cincinnati (7-3, 4-6 ATS)
The Bengals, coming off a stunning upset loss, return from a two-game road swing to face the hapless instate rival Browns at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati got knocked off by underwhelming Oakland 20-17 last week as a hefty nine-point road chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS run that included back-to-back victories over division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, last year’s AFC title game participants. The Bengals have ridden their defense to success this year, allowing just 16.7 ppg (third) and 310.5 ypg (10th). Offensively, RB Cedric Benson is a surprising fifth in the league with 859 rushing yards, despite sitting out last week’s game with an injury.
Cleveland let a huge 24-3 first-quarter lead evaporate entirely, losing a shootout at Detroit 38-37, giving up a 1-yard TD pass on an untimed down after the Browns’ committed a pass interference penalty on the Lions’ desperation Hail Mary attempt. The Browns have now lost five in a row (2-3 ATS), but they covered as a 3½-point pup at Detroit. Despite last week’s offensive outburst, the Browns are still second-to-last in total offense (236.8 ypg) and 30th in scoring (11.5 ppg), while allowing a league-worst 402 ypg and 26.3 ppg (28th).
Cincinnati squeaked by Cleveland 23-20 in overtime Oct. 4, falling short as a six-point road favorite, and the ATS winner has now alternated in the last six meetings in this AFC North rivalry. Cincy is 8-2 SU in the last 10 clashes (6-4 ATS), and the underdog is on a 5-0 ATS run. Also, the underdog has cashed in every Bengals game this season.
Cincinnati is in ATS ruts of 7-18-1 as a favorite (1-6 at home) and 5-12 against losing teams, but it is on pointspread upswings of 9-4 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 in the division, 5-2 at home and 18-8-1 in November. The Browns, meanwhile, are on a bundle of ATS dives, including 4-11-1 overall, 4-9-1 as an underdog, 2-5 in division play, 2-6-1 against winning teams and 1-7 as a pup of more than 10 points.
Cincinnati is on “under” runs of 11-4-1 at home, 6-2 giving points, 6-0 as a home chalk and 4-1 against the AFC. Similarly, the under for Cleveland is on tears of 21-10-1 overall, 4-1 in November, 6-2 against AFC opponents and 33-16-3 after a SU loss. Also, last month’s meeting between these teams cleared the 37½-point posted price, ending a 3-0 “under” run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER
Washington (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Philadelphia (6-4 SU and ATS)
The Eagles, coming off a split of two road games, look to keep pace in the NFC playoff chase when they take on the Redskins in an NFC East clash at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia topped Chicago 24-20 last Sunday night as a 3½-point road favorite, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. The Eagles have been bolstered by the NFL’s fourth-best turnover margin (plus-8) and a defense allowing just 305.1 ypg (eighth), and their offense is running up 26.6 ppg (tied for sixth) and 354.7 ypg (11th).
Washington nearly pulled off the upset at Dallas a week ago, giving up a TD with less than three minutes to play to lose 7-6 as an 11-point ‘dog in dropping to 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) in its last six games. The Redskins have one of the league’s least productive offenses, averaging just 14.6 ppg (29th) and 309.6 ypg (25th). They’ve scored more than 17 points just once all year and twice in their last 15 games.
Philly dropped Washington 27-17 four weeks ago on a Monday night, narrowly covering as a nine-point road chalk to end a 3-1 SU and ATS run by the Redskins in this rivalry. The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these two, and the road team and the underdog are on identical 4-1-1 ATS runs.
The Eagles are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 6-2 at home, 5-1 laying points at the Linc, 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in conference action and 4-1 in the NFC East. On the flip side, the Redskins are on ATS slides of 5-11-2 overall, 2-5-1 in November and 1-5-1 coming off a SU loss, though they are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a division road pup.
The over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 8-3 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1-1 as a home favorite and 6-2 in the NFC, though the under is 44-21-5 in the Eagles’ last 70 starts as a chalk. For Washington, the under is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 6-2 in November, 11-4-1 against NFC foes, 8-3 in the division and 7-3-1 on the road. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 8-3-1 in the last dozen meetings overall, including 4-1 in the last five in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Miami (5-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-7, 5-5 ATS)
The Dolphins, winners of five of seven games after an 0-3 start, make the trip to upstate New York to take on the AFC East rival Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Miami held off Carolina 24-17 as a 3½-point road pup in the Thursday game last week for its second consecutive win and third in four games (3-1 ATS). The Dolphins lost star RB Ronnie Brown to injury two weeks ago, but veteran Ricky Williams stepped in with 22 carries for 119 yards and two TDs, and also caught a TD pass. That effort helped Miami remain among the league’s elite rushing teams, averaging 156 ypg (fourth). The Dolphins are also averaging a respectable 24.2 ppg (11th), but they’re allowing 24.4 ppg (27th).
Buffalo fell short at Jacksonville 18-15, but easily covered as a nine-point ‘dog in its first game under interim coach Jerry Fewell, who took over for the fired Dick Jauron. Buffalo has scored 17 points or less in seven of its last eight games, including four games of 10 points or less, and the Bills are averaging 15.5 ppg on the year (28th).
Miami has won and covered the last three meetings in this rivalry, including a 38-10 home beatdown Oct. 4 as a one-point favorite. Prior to that, Buffalo was on a 6-0-1 ATS tear (6-1 SU). The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the favorite and the home team are on 4-1-1 ATS runs, and the Bills have covered in four of the last five contests at Ralph Wilson.
The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 5-2 overall, 6-0 in the AFC East, 6-0 in road division games, 9-3 on the highway and 5-2 as a road chalk. But they are also just 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games laying points, 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 against losing teams and 13-28-1 in their last 42 coming off a spread-cover. The Bills are on ATS declines of 1-8 at home, 0-5 as a home ‘dog, 2-8-1 in November and 3-7 after a pointspread win.
Miami is on a 5-2 “over” streak, but also carries “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-1 as a road chalk, 10-3 in November and 16-5 after a SU win. Buffalo is on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-1 as a pup and 4-1 against the AFC, and in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, the total has stayed low five times.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (3-7 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
Two teams on the fast track to the offseason square off when the Rams play host to the Seahawks at the Edward Jones Dome.
St. Louis lost to Arizona 21-13 Sunday, but covered as a 9½-point home underdog to cash for the third straight game. The Rams are getting great production out of RB Steven Jackson, who is second in the league with 1,031 rushing yards (103.1 ypg), including 530 yards over the last four games. But that’s about all St. Louis is getting, as it stands 26th in total offense (304.9 ypg) and 31st in scoring (11.3 ppg), while yielding 385.1 ypg (29th) and 27 ppg (also 29th).
Seattle got thumped at Minnesota 35-9 last week as a healthy 10½-point pup, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week and falling to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five starts. The Seahawks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS on the road this year, have scored more than 20 points just twice all year and average 19.6 ppg (22nd) and 325 ypg (21st). Defensively, Seattle is giving up 23.3 ppg (21st) and 347.3 ypg (20th).
Seattle opened the season with a 28-0 blanking of St. Louis as a seven-point home chalk and has now won nine in a row in this rivalry (7-2 ATS), including the last five SU and ATS, all from the favorite’s role. The SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Rams are on a 1-19 SU nosedive (9-11 ATS), and they are on ATS purges of 8-18 at home, 5-12 as a home ‘dog and 2-9 in the NFC West. However, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall (all as a pup) and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 4-0 against losing teams and 4-0 in November.
The Seahawks are on a pair of 4-1 ATS upticks, as a favorite and against losing teams, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a division chalk, but they shoulder negative pointspread runs of 1-4 overall, 0-6 on the highway, 3-8 as a road chalk and 1-4 against NFC West rivals.
The over is 25-10-1 in Seattle’s last 36 games versus losing teams, and the over has hit in four of St. Louis’ last five home games (all as a pup). However, the under is 7-3 in the Seahawks’ last 10 November outings, 5-0-1 in the Rams’ last six NFC West contests and 4-1 in St. Louis’ last five November games, and in this rivalry, the under is on a modest 3-1-1 run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay (1-9, 3-7 ATS) at Atlanta (5-5, 7-3 ATS)
The Falcons, who reached the playoffs last year but are quickly sliding out of this year’s postseason picture, return from a fruitless two-game road trip to face the dismal Buccaneers at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta outscored the Giants 24-14 in the second half Sunday to force overtime but never saw the ball in the extra session, losing 34-31 for its fourth loss in the last five games (3-2 ATS), though the Falcons covered as a seven-point road pup. Atlanta is a middling 14th in total offense this year (343.7 ypg), but it has converted those yards into 25.2 ppg, good for ninth in the league.
Tampa Bay got pounded by unbeaten New Orleans 38-7 as a hefty 10½-point home ‘dog last week, ending a modest two-game ATS uptick (1-1 SU). The Bucs have lost 12 of their last 14 games (4-9 ATS), and this year they rate 29th in total offense (270.5 ypg) and 27th in scoring offense (16.4 ppg), while giving up 378.3 ypg (27th) and 29.4 ppg, the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL.
Tampa has cashed in the last four clashes (3-1 ATS) between these NFC South rivals, with Atlanta winning 13-10 in overtime and the Bucs covering as a 5½-point road pup last December in the most recent meeting. Tampa Bay is 7-2 ATS on its last nine trips to the Georgia Dome, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.
The Falcons are on a handful of positive pointspread rolls, including 5-2 overall, 9-3 at home (4-0 last four), 11-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 in November, 4-1 laying points and 6-2 within the NFC. The Bucs have covered in seven of their last 10 November games, but the ATS streaks head south from there, including 3-9 overall, 2-9 after a SU loss, 1-4 in division play and 3-7 as a pup.
Atlanta is on “over” tears of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1 in the NFC South, 13-3 after a SU loss and 11-5 at the Georgia Dome. The total has also gone high in 12 of Tampa’s last 14 roadies, though the under is 5-2 in the Bucs’ last seven division games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Carolina (4-6 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-6 SU and ATS)
The Jets, plunging rapidly after their 3-0 SU and ATS start, aim to get back on track with a non-conference clash against the Panthers at the Meadowlands.
New York got dumped by New England 31-14 last Sunday for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, and the Jets’ lone win in their last seven games came against the dreadful Raiders. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez’s precipitous slide continued with four INTs against the Patriots, and he now has 16 INTs on the year, second-worst behind Chicago’s Jay Cutler (18). Sanchez has thrown three or more picks three times this year, negating the fact that New York sports the league’s second-best running attack (163.5 ypg).
Carolina, playing the Thursday game last week, fell short to Miami 24-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, which halted a three-game ATS run (2-1 SU). The Panthers have the NFL’s third-best rushing attack, at 159.1 ypg, but the passing game is averaging just 177.3 ypg (24th), and Carolina is putting up only 19.3 ppg (23rd). Like the Jets, the Panthers have their issues with turnovers, sitting at a minus-8 margin for the year (30th).
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Carolina covering in both and going 1-1 SU. Most recently, the Panthers rolled 30-3 as an 8½-point home chalk in November 2005. There have been just four meetings overall between these franchises, and the home team has cashed in all four. Also, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 12 games.
The Jets are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 1-6 overall, 1-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 0-4 in November, 2-6 at home, 1-6 as a home chalk and 2-6 against losing teams. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road pup and 3-6 ATS in their last nine as a non-division road ‘dog, but they also sport positive spread-covering streaks of 10-4 after a SU loss, 12-4-2 as a road pup of three points or less and 4-1 in November.
The over for New York is on surges of 3-0-1 overall, 6-0-2 in November, 7-3 at home, 5-1 with the Jets favored and 4-1 against losing teams. Likewise, the over for Carolina is on runs of 7-2 on the highway, 7-2 after an ATS setback, 6-2 after a SU loss and 7-2 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jacksonville (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at San Francisco (4-6, 6-2-2 ATS)
The Jaguars, who have surged into the AFC playoff picture, make the long cross-country trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.
Jacksonville ran its winning streak to three in a row with last week’s 18-15 win over Buffalo, falling well short of covering as a healthy nine-point home favorite. The Jags, behind the league’s seventh-best rushing attack (136.3 ypg), stand 12th in total offense (354 ypg), but they’ve only converted those yards into an average of 19.9 ppg (21st), while the defense is giving up 356.1 ypg (23rd) and 23.5 ppg (23rd).
San Francisco has struggled since its 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS start, losing five of its last six. Last week, the 49ers went to Green Bay and stumbled 30-24, though they got the push as a six-point pup. Offensively, the Niners are mustering just 278.5 ypg (27th) along with a mediocre 20.8 ppg (19th), and the defense is giving up 350.8 ypg (22nd) and 21 ppg (17th).
These teams have met four times, with Jacksonville going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, including a 10-9 victory as a 16-point chalk in December 2005.
Despite their current three-game win streak, the Jaguars are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-5 in November, 3-9 after a SU win, 3-7 following a non-cover and 1-5 against the NFC. Conversely, the 49ers are on pointspread sprees of 9-3-3 overall, 4-0-2 after an ATS loss, 4-1-1 after a SU defeat, 6-1-2 against winning teams, 6-2-1 in November and 5-2 at Candlestick.
The under for Jacksonville is on upticks of 6-2 as a visitor, 9-4 when an underdog and 7-2 as a road pup, and the under is 6-2 for San Francisco in its last eight following a SU loss. However, the over is 12-5 in the Niners’ last 17 as a home favorite and 7-1 with San Francisco giving three points or less at the ‘Stick.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at San Diego (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The streaking Chargers go for their sixth consecutive victory when they meet the Chiefs in an AFC West battle at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego white-washed Denver last week 32-3 as a 6½-point road chalk, winning its fifth straight while covering for the fourth time in that stretch. The Chargers are a middling 16th in the league in total yards (336.2 ypg), but they’re racking up 26.9 ppg, tied for fifth in the league. San Diego has scored at least 21 points in every game this year, cracking30 points three times. The offense is getting it done despite ranking just 29th in rushing (87.9 ypg).
Kansas City comes in off a huge upset of defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 in overtime as an overwhelming 10½-point home underdog. It was the Chiefs’ second consecutive SU win and third straight ATS victory. That said, K.C. still rates just 30th in total offense (268.1 ypg) and 26th in scoring (16.9 ppg), with Sunday’s effort marking its highest scoring output of the season after netting 21 points or less in eight of its first nine games.
San Diego has won four in row in this longtime rivalry, though it has split the cash in those contests, most recently rumbling 37-7 on the road last month as a 5½-point favorite. The underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven laying more than 10 points, but along with their current 4-1 ATS streak, they are 23-10-4 ATS in their last 37 AFC West outings. The Chiefs, despite their sub-par SU mark, are on ATS rolls of 5-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 10-4 as a pup against AFC West rivals, 9-1 catching more than 10 points, 8-1 as a road pup of that same price and 4-0 in November.
The over is 7-3-2 in San Diego’s last dozen division affairs and 4-1-1 in Kansas City’s last six versus winning teams. However, the under for the Chargers is on runs of 3-1-1 overall and 7-1 in November, and the under is 21-10-1 in the Chiefs’ last 32 as a road pup and 5-1-1 in K.C.’s last seven AFC West games. Finally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five Qualcomm meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Chicago (4-6 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (9-1, 6-3-1 ATS)
The Vikings, with the second-best record in the NFC, look to move closer to the North Division crown in a meeting with the rival Bears at the Metrodome.
Minnesota ripped Seattle 35-9 Sunday as a heavy 10½-point home chalk for its third win in a row (2-0-1 ATS). The Vikings are No. 2 in the league in scoring, piling up 30.6 ppg, which trails only the unbeaten Saints (36.9 ppg), and they’ve done it with a diverse offense that sits eighth in total yards (375.3 ypg), ninth in passing (249.1 ypg) and 10th in rushing (126.2 ypg). Minnesota is allowing 19.3 ppg (10th), and its high-pressure defense has a league-leading 36 sacks.
Chicago’s season is quickly circling the drain, as it has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, including a 24-20 home loss to Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 3½-point pup. QB Jay Cutler has thrown 15 TD passes but he also has 18 INTs, tied for the most in the league, but only because Detroit rookie Matthew Stafford hurled four INTs on Thanksgiving Day. Part of Cutler’s issue is a lackluster Bears running game averaging just 89.3 ypg (28th).
These rivals split last year’s two meetings, with Chicago winning a shootout 48-41 at home giving three points, and Minnesota rolling 34-14 as a five-point home favorite. In fact, the host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the Vikes are on a 5-2 ATS run against the Bears at the dome.
The Vikings are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight when laying more than 10 at home, but they are still on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 in November, 4-0-1 against the NFC, 3-0-1 against losing teams and 3-0-1 in the division. The Bears have cashed in their last four as a pup of more than 10, but they are otherwise on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-8 as a ‘dog, 0-6-1 as a road pup and 0-4 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall (5-1-1) and 3-1-1 in the last five at the Metrodome. Furthermore, the over is 10-4-1 in Minnesota’s last 15 November starts. But the under for the Vikes is on runs of 5-0 as a chalk of more than 10 points and 4-1 against losing teams, and Chicago is on “under” stretches of 10-4 on the road, 37-17-2 with the Bears a road ‘dog and 7-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Arizona (7-3, 6-4 ATS) at Tennessee (4-6, 5-5 ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to remain perfect on the road this year when they head east for a battle with the resurgent Titans at LP Field.
Arizona topped Seattle 21-13 Sunday as a 9½-point home chalk for its third consecutive victory and sixth win in the last seven games (5-2 ATS). The Cards, who are 5-0 on the road (4-1 ATS) in 2009, have scored 21 points or more in all seven of those contests and are averaging 25 ppg (10th), mostly due to the veteran arm of QB Kurt Warner, who has the Cards ranked fourth in the league in passing offense (270 ypg). Arizona is also allowing just 19.7 ppg (12th).
Warner, who has 20 TDs against 11 INTs, only played into the second quarter against the Seahawks, leaving after suffering a head injury. However, he’s on track to start this week.
After an 0-6 SU start to the season (1-5 ATS), Tennessee has peeled off four straight wins and covers, edging Houston 20-17 Monday night as a four-point road pup. The Titans haven’t lost since pulling QB Kerry Collins in favor of Vince Young, but the difference-maker is RB Chris Johnson, who had 151 rushing yards Monday and has piled up 646 yards during the winning streak. Johnson now leads the league with 1,242 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry, 8 TDs).
These non-conference rivals haven’t met since October 2005, when Arizona posted a 20-10 home win laying 5½ points in the only clash this decade.
The Cardinals carry positive ATS trends into Nashville of 11-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup and 7-3 after a SU win. The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, but along with their current 4-0 SU and ATS run, they are on pointspread rolls of 8-4 at home, 5-0 in November, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7 against NFC opposition.
Arizona is on “over” tears of35-17 overall, 5-1 in November, 40-19 on the road, 38-13 as a road pup, 21-8 after a SU win and 37-15 against losing teams. The over is also on a 7-3 surge with the Titans as a home favorite, but the under for Jeff Fisher’s troops is on stretches of 19-9-1 after a SU win, 12-5-1 against winning teams and 7-1 when laying up to three points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Pittsburgh (6-4, 3-7 ATS) at Baltimore (5-5, 6-4 ATS)
The Steelers and Ravens, last year’s AFC title game participants, both find themselves in need of a win when they face off at M&T Bank Stadium in a prime-time showdown of bitter AFC North rivals.
Pittsburgh went to Kansas City last week as a 10½-point road favorite and left with a stunning 27-24 overtime defeat, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week after a 5-0 SU roll (3-2 ATS). Not only did the defending champs lose the game, but they lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to a concussion in overtime, and then second-string QB Charlie Batch went down with a broken wrist. Batch is out for the season, and Roethlisberger will not play today, leaving the QB chores in the hands of third-stringer Dennis Dixon.
The Steelers have one of the NFL’s top offenses, averaging 379.8 ypg (sixth), and the defense is yielding a league-best 277.9 ypg and just 18.4 ppg (eighth). However, the problem has been in the turnover department, where Pittsburgh has a minus-5 margin (27th).
Baltimore fell just short to undefeated Indianapolis last week, losing 17-15 as a one-point home pup, and the Ravens have now alternated SU wins over their past five games (3-2 ATS). Baltimore is averaging 23.7 ppg (12th), but the past three weeks, it has generated a total of 38 points (12.7 ppg). Defensively, the Ravens are allowing 310 ypg (ninth) and 17.1 ppg (fifth).
This is the first meeting between these two since last year’s AFC Championship Game, won by Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point home chalk. The Steelers also swept the regular-season series last year (1-1 ATS) and are now 4-1 in the last five meetings (3-2 ATS). Conversely, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups at M&T. Also, the SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Steelers are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-8 overall, 1-6 on the highway and 2-5 against AFC opponents. Conversely, despite their middling SU season, the Ravens are on ATS rolls of 17-7 overall, 6-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover, 10-4 at home and 13-6 in conference action.
Pittsburgh is on “over” runs of 17-7 in the AFC, 4-1 after an ATS setback, 7-3 following a SU loss and 5-2 on the road, and in this rivalry, the total has hurdled the posted price in five of the last six clashes. However, the under for Baltimore is on surges of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 in AFC play, 4-0 inside the division and 4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
DUNKEL INDEX
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Miami at Buffalo
The Dolphins look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 road games. Miami is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3)
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Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 140.940; Houston 139.874
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over
Game 207-208: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.898; Cincinnati 137.874
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Over
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Game 209-210: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.269; Minnesota 140.289
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under
Game 211-212: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.274; Philadelphia 134.161
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over
Game 213-214: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.831; Buffalo 126.994
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over
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Game 215-216: Arizona at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.215; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over
Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over
Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Atlanta 134.690
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+12); Under
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Game 221-222: Carolina at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.009; NY Jets 132.029
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under
Game 223-224: Jacksonville at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.844; San Francisco 131.526
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick San Francisco (-3); Under
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Game 225-226: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.875; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Over
Game 227-228: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 140.488; Baltimore 138.316
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30
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Game 229-230: New England at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.321; New Orleans 149.020
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1 1/2); Over
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CFL
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Saskatchewan vs. Montreal
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is coming off a 27-17 win over Calgary, but is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win. Montreal is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-9 1/2)
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Game 241-242: Saskatchewan vs. Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 107.005; Montreal 123.745
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 16 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 9 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-9 1/2); Under
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NBA
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Houston at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to build on their 11-3 ATS record in their last 14 games versus Southwest Division opponents. Oklahoma City is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2)
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Game 701-702: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 123.061; Detroit 116.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Phoenix at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 123.889; Toronto 117.298
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 233
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 230
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2); Over
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Game 705-706: Memphis at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 112.757; LA Clippers 117.311
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Orlando at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.753; New York 115.064
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6 1/2); Under
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Game 709-710: Boston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.846; Miami 118.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 4; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Under
Game 711-712: Philadelphia at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 111.448; San Antonio 125.319
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 192
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-10 1/2); Under
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Game 713-714: Houston at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.915; Oklahoma City 125.279
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 198
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3); Over
Game 715-716: Minnesota at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 105.071; Denver 125.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 20 1/2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 15 1/2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15 1/2); Over
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Game 717-718: New Orleans at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.471; Sacramento 120.458
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 4; 202 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-3); Under
Game 719-720: New Jersey at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 109.909; LA Lakers 127.790
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 18; 194
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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NCAA
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Texas at Rice
The Owls look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games against teams with a winning home record. Rice is the pick (+18) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by only 15. Dunkel Pick: Rice (+18)
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Game 721-722: South Alabama at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.054; Arkansas 61.011
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 9
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 8
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-8)
Game 723-724: New Orleans at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 48.578; North Carolina State 67.356
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 19
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 17
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (-17)
Game 725-726: Princeton at California
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 50.316; California 68.308
Dunkel Line: California by 18
Vegas Line: California by 21
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+21)
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Game 727-728: Indiana State at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 54.934; Arkansas State 51.918
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 3
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-2)
Game 729-730: San Francisco at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 49.630; Colorado State 57.047
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-5)
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Game 731-732: Texas at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 72.863; Rice 57.898
Dunkel Line: Texas by 15
Vegas Line: Texas by 18
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+18)
Game 733-734: Nebraska at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 65.411; USC 66.921
Dunkel Line: USC by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 4
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+4)
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Game 735-736: Pepperdine at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 46.291; Wyoming 55.188
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 737-738: Nevada at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 59.946; North Carolina 76.207
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 16
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-16)
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Game 739-740: Iona vs. Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 52.560; Creighton 59.661
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 7
Vegas Line: Creighton by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-6 1/2)
Game 741-742: Baylor vs. Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 62.677; Xavier 72.198
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-6 1/2)
Game 743-744: Alabama vs. Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 59.843; Michigan 66.974
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 7
Vegas Line: Michigan by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-4 1/2)
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Game 745-746: Marquette vs. Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 72.542; Florida State 68.535
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 4
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Marquette
Game 747-748: Toledo vs. Vermont
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 44.975; Vermont 50.676
Dunkel Line: Vermont by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 749-750: Cornell at Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 59.447; Drexel 58.515
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 751-752: Ark-Fort Smith vs. Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Ark-Fort Smith 35.224; Valparaiso 49.424
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 14
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 753-754: Troy at Georgia Southern
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 53.938; Georgia Southern 41.654
Dunkel Line: Troy by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 755-756: Norfolk State vs. SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 40.883; SE Missouri State 36.642
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 4
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 757-758: St. Bonaventure at Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 59.921; Illinois State 67.199
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 759-760: Long Beach State vs. UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 54.612; UCLA 59.570
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 5
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-3 1/2)
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Game 761-762: Texas A&M vs. Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 69.259; Minnesota 69.780
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+5 1/2)
Game 763-764: Clemson vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 71.133; Butler 68.395
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3
Vegas Line: Clemson by 2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-2)
Game 765-766: Portland vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 64.913; West Virginia 72.004
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+8 1/2)
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Game 767-768: Niagara at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 58.272; Akron 54.527
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 1
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-1)
Game 769-770: Portland State at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 49.554; Stanford 66.007
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-12 1/2)
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Game 771-772: NC Wilmington at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 51.212; Elon 43.667
Dunkel Line: NC Wilmington by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Wilmington by 3
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (-3)
Game 773-774: Kent State at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 55.422; Morehead State 61.017
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-2)
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Game 775-776: Montana at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 52.630; Washington 77.016
Dunkel Line: Washington by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 20
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-20)
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NHL
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Phoenix at Anaheim
The Coyotes look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games versus Pacific Division opponents. Phoenix is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has Phoenix favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150)
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Game 51-52: Phoenix at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.266; Anaheim 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150); Over
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Game 53-54: San Jose at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.837; Vancouver 12.556
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110); Under
Lucky Day Sports
Jacksonville at San Francisco
Well here's the deal. These two teams have been on a roller coaster all season long. The Niners started out strong and have folded, while Jacksonville has bee either great or very bad. The Jags are coming off of (3) straight wins and seem to be clicking on offense with MJD as the superstar they were looking for early on. He has finally turned it on and should stay hot, even against a good SF run defense. When the Jags have won this season, they have put up points, and that should happen here. Meanwhile, when San Fran has struggled, they have given up points in bunches, much to the dismay of tough-guy coach Mike Singletary. The Niners have shown some spark in their offense since Alex Smith has been under center, and I think they'll hit on a couple of big plays here. Look for both defenses to be susceptible to the big play, especially early, and look for this one to go over. Take OVER 41.5 in the Jacksonville at San Francisco game
Craig Trapp
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Jacksonville Jags +158
The Jags head west trying to not have a repeat performance of last trip out west in which Seattle handed them their lunches. Good news is that since then the Jags have 4 of 5 all in very impressive fashion. The Jags have got back to their roots of running the ball and stopping the run. This commitment to the run has even created some big opportunities down the field. The 49ers are headed in the opposite direction as the last 6 games has seen them only win once. Alex Smith at QB has been up and down but still has had trouble on third down conversions. Gore has been good at running the ball but can't carry this team any longer. The Jags have played SF 4 times all wins by the Jags, although the last one was 2005. Lets take the hot team that has a ton M/L valuer here.
Steve Merril
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
Play: Under 41½
Both teams have run-based offenses that should keep the clock moving and shorten this game today. Both teams also have below average passing attacks that have struggled this season, so big plays and quick scoring strikes are less likely to occur.The Jets are averaging an awful 51.9% completions and only 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 59.3% and 6.7 ypp). New York will now be facing a strong Carolina pass defense that permits just 6.1 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 6.6 ypp). The Jets also have a strong secondary that allows only 5.6 yards per pass and just 56.4% completions (versus opponents that average 6.6 ypp and 62.0%). New York should be able to limit a mediocre Carolina aerial attack that averages only 56.1% completions and just 5.8 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 59.0% and 6.6 ypp)
Matt Fargo
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Miami Dolphins -3.5
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Playing on a southern teams coming north in the latter stages of the NFL season can be tough to do but this is a case where it won’t matter. Miami is back into the playoff picture after win in three of its last four games and five of its last seven following a 0-3 start. The Dolphins are coming off a victory in Carolina last time out and that is important not just for the win but for when it was. They get an extra three days to rest and prepare and this time of year, there is not a bigger schedule benefit. This will be first bad weather game of the season for Miami although it will not be horrible. The Dolphins gameplan will not have any bearing on how the weather turns out as it will be a game of running the ball. Unlike last week when Jacksonville did not take advantage of the porous Bills rushing defense, the Dolphins will. Ricky Williams has been solid in taking over for the injured Ronnie Brown as he has rushed for more than 100 yards in each of his past two games, and also scored two touchdowns last week against the Panthers. Buffalo will have trouble stopping the run and it is going to have trouble running the ball on offense as well. As many are probably already aware, the offensive line is on shambles for the Bills as two more offensive linemen went down last week and right now, the Bills have just seven healthy linemen, and only five of them were on the active roster last week. That is a recipe for disaster in both the running game as pass protection. Terrell Owens had a breakout game last week against the Jaguars but that was mostly due to one big play. The quarterback situation is still a mess with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and while some insist he isn’t horrible, his 56.8 passer rating shows otherwise. The Bills have turned the ball over at least twice in eight of their last nine games and that certainly is not going to bring in many wins. Even with the Dolphins being only one game over .500 should the beat the Bills, they would be one game behind the division leading Patriots whom they lost to earlier in the year. The Patriots and Miami both sit at 3-1 in the division, the Dolphins would be 4-1 going into the Patriots game with a win here and that is huge. A slip up here and the division is likely gone. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a win and over the last two years under head coach Tony Sparano, it is 8-1 ATS in conference road games. Buffalo is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games. 3* Miami Dolphins
LT Profits
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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers
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The San Diego Chargers are playing as well as any team in the NFL over the past month while the Kansas City Chiefs are in an obvious letdown spot after upsetting the Super Bowl champions, and we feel that the end result should be a blowout Chargers victory.
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Things did not look good for the Chargers winning the AFC West when the Denver Broncos raced out to a 6-0 start while San Diego began the year 2-3, but the Bolts have now won five straight games to take over the division lead, and they must win this game to maintain sole possession of that lead after an impressive Denver win on Thanksgiving night.
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This Chargers winning streak began with a 37-7 rout of these Chiefs in Kansas City, and it also included an impressive road win at the New York Giants and a nice home win over the Philadelphia Eagles before a statement win at Denver last week.
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That 32-3 drubbing in a difficult venue for visiting teams now looks even more impressive in light of the Broncos performance Thursday night, and the fact that the Chargers need to win to keep the West lead all to themselves should lessen the likelihood of a letdown here.
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Meanwhile, the Chiefs followed up their road win at Oakland by shocking the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime at home last week. Kansas City may still be feeling a tad giddy entering this contest, but we feel that San Diego will dampen those spirits in their current form by opening up a big lead here and never looking back.
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Take the Chargers to win by more than two touchdowns here.
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Pick: Chargers -13.5
MTi Sports
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
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In franchise history, the Texans are 0-8 ATS as a dog when they are 500. Now that is a revealing stat. The Colts are 7-0 ATS (+7.1 ppg) on the road when they get a team off a Monday Night game. Finally, the Texans are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since 2005 at home off a loss in which they gave their opponent at least 3 first downs via a defensive penalty. Lay the points as it looks like it will be yet another season without the playoffs for the Texans.
Tom Freese
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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: under
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San Diego 7-1 UNDER their last 8 November games and they are 5-0-1 UNDER their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Chargers are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall. Kansas City is 21-10-1 UNDER their last 32 games as road underdogs and they are 5-1 UNDER vs. AFC West teams. The Chiefs are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall and they are 10-4 UNDER their last 14 meetings with Chargers. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
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New Jersey Nets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Under
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New Jersey is 23-8 UNDER their last 31 games overall and they are 10-1 UNDER off a straight up loss. The Nets are 7-1 UNDER their last 8 games as road underdogs and they are 20-6 UNDER as underdogs of 11.0 or higher and they are 6-2 UNDER when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles is 35-17 UNDER their last 52 games as favorites and they are 9-2 UNDER off a double digit win. The Lakers 17-4-1 UNDER their last 22 Sunday games and they are 10-3-1 UNDER vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40%. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Cincinnati Bengals -13
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After giving the game away in Oakland last week, expect the Bengals to be out for blood at home Sunday against a Browns team they'll be ready for and motivated to play. Cleveland took Cincy to overtime in the season's first meeting, but I don't see this one playing out the same way. The Bengals have an opportunity to pull off the season sweep in the division and I like them to roll. A couple key systems stand out here. First off, Cincy is on a 19-6 ATS run vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Secondly, Cincy is 16-3 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season. Expect the Bengals to respond after a wake up call last week. Lay the number.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Houston Texans +3.5
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Bottom Line: Houston gave the Colts all they wanted and more a few weeks back in Indy and I fully expect it to do so again Sunday. In fact, Indy has gotten all it has wanted and more in its last 4 games, winning by no more than 4 points in any of them. Houston has played the Colts tight in three straight games now, covering the number in all three, and the Texans have an excellent opportunity to hand Indy its first loss of the season today. The Texans have been downright deadly catching points at home at 7-1 ATS in their last 8 in the role and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. Houston has made a habit out of playing up or down to the level of its competition in recent years so it comes as no surprise that the Texans are on a 5-0-1 ATS run vs. a team with a winning record and a 13-4 ATS run vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6 or more ppg on the season. Take the points.
Tony Mathews
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Selection: Tampa Bay/Atlanta Over 46.5
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In their last five games this season, the Atlanta defense has struggled, having allowed at least 28 points in four of those games. In yardage allowed, the Falcon defense is ahead of only Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and St. Louis.
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Tampa Bay has finally given up their conservative game plan after switching to QB Josh Freeman who, in his first three starts, has aired it out with 5 TDs and 5 interceptions.
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What it all boils down to in this matchup is that both the Buccaneers and the Falcons have horrible defenses, but on offense, both teams are unrelenting. With a limited running game, we’ve seen Atlanta become even more powerful through the air. As such, expect both the Falcons and the Buccaneers to each score several points.
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Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Atlanta Falcons Over 46.5
Brian Marshall
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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
Play: New York Jets -3
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This year we have seen the Carolina offense having a hard time scoring, and with serious injuries on both sides of the ball, the Panthers are not in any form for a comeback this week.
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New York has played their best games against opponents with weak defensive lines such as Carolina. Because of all the injuries, the Jets should have no trouble squashing the Panthers in this game. We expect this week to end a 3 game losing streak for New York with RB Thomas Jones setting the stage early on for the Jet offense.
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Lay the points!
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Take the New York Jets -3