Jeff Benton
Indianapolis at HOUSTON +3'
I’ve hit back-to-back free-play winners the last two days on Illinois (Friday) and Arkansas (Saturday), and I’m on a 16-8 roll with NFL freebies. For Sunday’s complimentary NFL pick, I’ll take the Texans plus the points against the Colts.
I know Houston is coming off consecutive heartbreaking three-point divisional losses, including one at Indianapolis, with the culprit being kicker Kris Brown both times. I also know the Colts are perfect on the season, have won 19 consecutive regular-season games and have had the Texans’ number all-time, winning 10 of 11 meetings including the last five in a row.
So what makes me think Houston is poised to compete in this game and challenge for the outright upset? Well, for one thing, it was just three weeks ago that the Texans went to Indy and outplayed the Colts, taking a 17-13 fourth-quarter lead, then falling behind 20-17, then missing the game-tying field goal that would’ve forced overtime. It was the third consecutive competitive game Houston has played against Indy, losing all three but only by a combined 13 points.
In fact, in last year’s meeting in Houston, the Colts stole a 31-27 victory as a three-point favorite, but only because then-Texans backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels committed two idiotic turnovers with his team up 27-10 and barely four minutes left to play. The two previous years the Colts went to Houston, they escaped 30-24 as a 6½-point road chalk and lost 27-24 as a nine-point favorite.
Finally, the Colts have been playing with fire for four consecutive weeks now, coming from behind to beat the 49ers (18-14 at home), Texans (20-17 at home), Patriots (35-34 at home) and Ravens (17-15 on the road) by a combined 10 points! They went 1-3 ATS in those four games (the only cover being as a 1½-point favorite at Baltimore last week), and Indy has cashed just six times in its last 19 AFC South games. Meanwhile, the Texans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five overall, 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a home underdog.
7♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Chicago at MINNESOTA -10'
Taking a look at the battle between old rivals Chicago and Minnesota this Sunday, and I just don't see any way Minnesota doesn't hammer this Chicago team that appears to be on life support these days.
The Bears came up short on Sunday night in their bid to end their two game slide against the Eagles, as Philly took it 24-20 at Chicago.
Since their bye, Chicago is on a 1-5 slide both straight up, and against the spread, and QB Jay Cutler still appears to out of sync with his receivers, so chances of a Chicago upset appear to be slim and none in this one.
Minnesota played their most complete game of the season in their 35-9 dismantling of the Seahawks last week, as the Vikings are now 9-1 straight up, and 5-2-1 against the spread this season when laying points.
The Vikings have won the last pair of meetings against the Bears in Minnesota, and have taken 6 of the last 7 straight up at home against their division rival, covering in 3 of the last 4 at the Metrodome.
I will be backing Minnesota minus the number in this one.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
Arizona at TENNESSEE -2
I don't like the way the Cardinals are hobbling into this contest, and would much rather lay the low chalk with a surging Titans team.
One week after having his head slammed into the turf by Rams safety O.J. Atogwe, Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner will take on a Titans team that suddenly no team wants to face.
Now sporting Vince Young under offense, the entire team is showing balance on both sides of the ball, having outscored opponents by an average final of 31.2-18.5 during a four-game win streak.
Young has thrived in his current stint as starter, mainly because he hasn't had to shoulder the burden, thanks to NFL leading rusher Chris Johnson coming out of the backfield. Johnson has surpassed his total of 1,228 yards as a rookie last season, and has recorded five straight 100-yard efforts with an average of 161.5 during the winning streak.
Quite a change when you consider that streak comes on the heels of a 59-0 shellacking at the hands of New England, not to mention a 0-6 start to the season.
I know Tennessee's pass defense is the worst in the AFC, but Warner is going to be gunshy, and the Titans' front line is going to look to take advantage.
Lay this cheap chalk tonight.
2♦ TITANS
Drew Gordon
Jacksonville +3' at SAN FRANCISCO
14-4 roll L18 Free Plays, incl. V-Tech Saturday, Colorado Friday, and Packers Thursday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Jaguars/49ers match up.
Two teams headed in opposite directions collide in this match up, as the Jags are surging, winning 4 of their L5 SU, including 3 straight! On the other hand, the 49ers are tail-spinning right now, losers of 5 of their L6 SU, and playing like a team with a serious idenity crisis. Simply too much value to be had to look any other way but Jacksonville and here's why...
People love talking about the Jaguars rushing attack with Jones-Drew, but that is not the match up I'm focusing on. More important is the Jaguards passing attack with Sims-Walker versus a terrible 49ers secondary. Sims-Walker will force the 49ers to be honest on defense, because if they decide to stack the box, he's a true home run threat with single coverage. Look for the play action to devastate a 49ers pass defense that ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL.
Also, for all the talk about Singletary and his "intensity on defense," bettors are failing to notice a Jaguars stop-unit that's posting much stronger numbers of late. Jacksonville is allowing 4 fewer ppg (19 vs 23) and 61 yards less total offense (322 vs 383) compared to San Fran over their L3 games. Even more significant has been the improvement of the Jags against the run, allowing just 74 rushing yards/game on 3.6 yards/carry over that 3-game span!
Bottom line, look for the Jaguars to focus on stopping the run, forcing QB Alex Smith to beat them instead of Frank Gore. That's a very sound strategy, and one that I expect will work well against a very inconsistent 49ers offense. In the end, one team is surging, while the other had regressed considerably. Jags get it done Sunday afternoon!
Take Jacksonville plus the points over San Francisco in this NFL match up.
2♦ JACKSONVILLE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Jacksonville at SAN FRANCISCO -3
On an 11-5 comp play run the last 16 days.
Defense is the order of the day in the Bay Area, as Jacksonville and San Francisco have at it.
3 of Jacksonville's first 5 games away from home this season have held UNDER the total, as have 8 of their last 12 on the highway dating back to last season.
San Francisco's last home game produced a 10-6 final against the Chicago Bears, and we expect another low-scoring contest in this one, as Jacksonville figures to showcase Bay Area-native Maurice Jones-Drew which means the ground game could figure prominently on both sides of the ball, as the clock keeps a-moving, and the points are few and far between.
Going to look for the UNDER to be the way to go in this one.
Play the LOW.
2♦ UNDER
Stephen Nover
Kansas City at SAN DIEGO -13'
No doubt the Chargers are going to put up a lot of points against Kansas City. They scored 37 points when they met the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7.
It certainly wasn't a fluke. San Diego's strength is its passing attack spearheaded by Philip Rivers. The Chiefs have a slow secondary and lack a pass rush. That's a bad combination and goes a long way in explaining why Kansas City has the third-worst defense in the NFL. The Chiefs have only 15 sacks, fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Lately, San Diego's ground game has come around. LaDainian Tomlinson isn't what he once was, but he isn't washed up either. He's scored five touchdowns in the last four weeks. The Chargers rushed for 203 yards in their last game, a 32-3 road victory against Denver.
San Diego is averaging 29 points in its last five games. The Chiefs have played three road games against decent-to-good offenses - Baltimore, Philadelphia and Jacksonville. They've surrendered an average of 32 points in those contests.
It's reasonable certain to expect the Chargers to score between 27-37 points. The key is can the Chiefs produce enough of the rest of the points to produce an over? I say they can.
Kansas City is coming off a season-high in points with 27 against Pittsburgh last week, while also producing a season-high five pass plays of 20 yards or more.
The scoring number is skewed because of a kickoff return for a touchdown. The Steelers also were without star safety Troy Polumalu. Still, Pittsburgh's defense is stronger than the Chargers' defense.
San Diego ranks 21st versus the run. The Chiefs' ground attack is better since they dumped Larry Johnson. Jamaal Charles can make big plays and get to the edge, something Johnson no longer could do.
The Chiefs are using more no-huddle more and their offensive line is more in sync that it was earlier when the players weren't used to each other. Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs' best wide receiver, still is under suspension. But veteran Chris Chambers has played well since being picked up from the Chargers. He'll be highly motivated to perform well against the team that surprisingly released him.
2♦ CHIEFS/CHARGERS OVER
Dominic Fazzini
Kansas City at SAN DIEGO -13'
Had a rare loss Saturday with my complimentary selection on Texas Tech, but I'm still on a 16-4 run, including wins in 13 of my last 16 plays. And I expect my play on the Chargers today to come in easily.
While the Chiefs have been playing better lately, even defeating Pittsburgh in overtime last week, San Diego is really starting to hit its stride and assert itself as one of the NFL's top teams.
The Chargers completely dominated Denver last week in a 32-3 victory as the offense gave a balanced effort and the defense forced three turnovers and had three sacks.
San Diego gained a rare rout of Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season, winning 37-7 as Philip Rivers passed for three touchdowns, the defense allowed just 203 total yards and the Chargers jumped out to a 20-0 halftime lead.
Chiefs QB Matt Cassel was just 10 of 25 for 97 yards and one TD with three interceptions in that game, and San Diego is playing better now than it was then. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
San Diego began its five-game winning streak with its earlier win against Kansas City, and it has been rolling ever since. I don't believe the Chiefs can do anything to slow the AFC West leaders down today. Take the Chargers to win by at least two touchdowns.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
Pittsburgh +8 at BALTIMORE
Improved to 16-8 with my last 24 FREE selections after San Diego State got the cover in Vegas Saturday night against UNLV. Today's comp selection comes on the Steelers as they are catching too many points in the Sunday night contest against the Ravens in Baltimore.
I know, how can you play the Steelers tonight with third-stringer Dennis Dixon starting at QB for the defending Super Bowl champs? I’m grabbing these points because it’s an over-reaction to the situation and Dixon actually brings something the Ravens won’t be ready for – an elusive QB that will buy himself all kinds of time and hit the open receivers.
Plus, when you take away a big star like Ben Roethlisberger, a championship team really rises to the occasion and you’ll see everyone else on the team come with more focus and play at a higher level. The defense is already the best in the NFL, allowing 277.9 yards per contest and they only allow 18.4 points a game. That will be intensified tonight.
Baltimore lost at home last week, 17-15 to the Colts as a one-point home underdog. The Ravens were getting a lot of production from the offense early in the season, but they are averaging just 12.7 points a game over the last three. And the dominating Ravens’ defense is allowing 310 yards per game this season, not the force it used to be.
Dixon is going to shine in this game. He will move around in the pocket and give receivers Heinz Ward and Santonio Holmes all kinds of time to get open.
Pittsburgh has won each of the last three meetings between these two, all coming last season, including the AFC title game when the Steelers won 23-14 as a six-point favorite.
This is a lot of points to pass up. Grab them and play the Steelers tonight.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Scott Delaney
Seattle at St. Louis
All Steven Jackson today.
The power running back has been having an all-Pro season, and there's no reason to believe that changes today, as he will be the catalyst for the Rams.
And by utilizing him for the running game, the Rams will dictate the pace in this one, while draining the clock and keeping the Seahawks off the field as long as possible.
Both teams are scratching and clawing to stay out of the NFC West cellar, a spot the Rams have occupied the past two seasons. And I don't believe the Rams want to make it three in a row.
The Seahawks have lost their last six road games, all by double digits. And since the Rams gave the unbeaten Saints their closest game of the year two weeks ago, I think they're confident in their capabilities.
3♦ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Tony Weston
Bad call with Stanford last night as the Cardinal need late heroics just to pull off the SU win. They couldn’t come through and end up costing us.
But I’m delivering today as I’m taking the Colts on the road at the Houston Texans.
Indy comes into this game 6-3-1 ATS this season, but of those covers, 5 have come on the road where the Colts are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. In fact, on the road this year Indy has beaten its opponents by 17 points per game (29.6-12.6).
Now they battle a Houston Texans team that’s just 1-3-1 ATS at home this year and just 2-3 SU.
Keep in mind, too, that in this series between the Colts and Texans, Indy has gone 9-1 SU their last 10 meetings, including wins in 5 straight against Houston.
During that 5-game winning streak against the Texans, Indy has beaten them by an average of 8.4 points per game.
It’ll be the same old story as the Colts get over easily against Houston.
3♦ COLTS
Steve Duemig
For today's comp selection we're focusing on the Colts-Texans match up.
Does it ever let up with the Colts schedule-wise? New England two weeks ago, Baltimore last week, and now the pesky but under-achieving Texans today as they hit the road for a second straight week.
The Texans almost had them in Indy, losing 20-17, and the linemaker is respecting them at home in today's rematch.
I expect game-day money to come in on Indianapolis, bumping this line a little further up away from the 3, which will be to our benefit. The Colts have been flirting with danger and this winning streak lately. I think it comes to an end here today in a must win for the Texans if they want to even stay within sniffing distance of the playoffs.
1♦ HOUSTON
Dennis Macklin
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Take: Minnesota Vikings -10½
The Bears are in complete freefall going 1-5 after bye with the only win a life-and-death home win over the Browns on the 10th anniversary of the death of Walter Peyton. Cutler just one pick last week but today faces Viking defense with 36 sacks and bringing heat every play. Matt Forte has been in witness protection program leaving Chitown with little offensive options. Shutdown corner Antione Winfield also returns to the Vikes. Say what you will about Brett Favre, he's having a MVP type of year with 21 TDs and just 3 picks. Purple Jesus, Adrian Peterson is slightly dinged but has 999 yards and has had best games against the Bears in the past. Minnesota has six wins of 12+ and the only wat that Vikes don't drop 40+ on the Monsters of the Midway here would be for Childress to call off the dogs early. Division/Conference game and #1 seed in NFC up for grabs, why would he ??? Minnesota 45-13.
Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets
Take: Carolina Panthers +3
The Jets have lost six of seven as Mark Sanchez goes through his learning curve. Sanchez with eight giveaways in last two games but more importantly, the NYJ defense is allowing 28 ppg and 120+ rypg against Panther attack avgg 205 ypg overland in last four. Fox not taking any chance with Delhomme who has thrown just one pick L4 after 13 in first four. Expecting two-headed dragon of Williams and Stewart to got off to the races. Panthers straight up, call it 24-20.
Jack Jones
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets -3
The Jets and Panthers are both fighting to stay alive in the playoff race. With New York playing at home, look for the Jets to take it to the Panthers today. Carolins has fought tough this season. The Panthers have gone the opposite direction of New York by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins was a killer. They are 0-2 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes in 9 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago, 0-4 ATS in 07. Carolina's home loss to the Dolphins really deflated them, and now they won't show up to play Sunday while the Jets will. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.0-10.0 points. New York is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. After a tough showing against the Patriots last week, I look for the Jets to respond at home Sunday. Take New York.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Rams +4
St. Louis is not the same team that was shutout by the Seahawks early in the season. It has played well in 3 straight games, covering the number in all 3. This included a game where it took the undefeated Saints right down to the wire. St. Louis has proven that it can run the football with Steven Jackson, racking up 4.6 yards per carry on the season. I expect this running game to give a Seahawks team that is 0-5 SU & ATS on the road this season fits Sunday. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and I'll fade away here.
EZWINNERS
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams +4
This is probably the game that all of the public will jump on thinking they are going to win some easy money with the Seahawks. If it looks to easy it probably is, that's why they have all of those big, shiny casinos in Vegas. Seattle might be the most disappointing team in the league this season. The Seahawks are 0-5 straight up and against the spread on the road this season and should not be favored against anyone. The Rams have covered the spread in three straight games and have rediscovered Stephen Jackson and the running. Take the points.