Michael Cannon
Seattle at ST. LOUIS +4
I’m 36-22-1 with my last 59 overall free plays.
Take the Rams as the small home dog over the Seahawks.
I know St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger is out, but the heart and soul of this offense is running back Steven Jackson.
Jackson is second in the league in rushing yards and has piled up 530 yards over the last four games. The Seahawks are allowing 146 ypg rushing on the road and have been horrible against the pass away from home too, giving up 267 ypg and allowing opposing QBs to complete 73 percent of their passes.
That will make things a lot easier for backup Kyle Boller.
The Seahawks are also playing their third straight road game and have numerous injury issues, most notably on the offensive line.
The Rams have covered four of their last five overall and are also on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 against losing teams and 4-0 in November.
The Seahawks are on pointspread slides of 1-4 overall, 0-6 on the road, 3-8 as a road chalk and 1-4 against division rivals.
Take the points with the Rams as they get it done at home.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Chicago at MINNESOTA -11
Take the Vikings as the big home chalk over the Bears.
Minnesota is coming off a 35-9 pasting of the Seahawks on Sunday as a 10½-point home chalk. The Vikings have won three straight, going 2-0-1 ATS.
This is a huge situational advantage for the Vikings as this marks their third straight home game coming off the bye week. The Bears are on a short turnaround after last week’s Sunday night game against the Eagles combined with the holiday.
Minnesota has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, which means Jay Cutler is going to be putting the ball in the air 40+ times today. That’s going to give the Vikings numerous opportunities at turnovers and sacks.
The Bears just don’t have the weapons for Cutler to work with and their offensive line has been bad too. Another thing the Vikings do well is rush the passer, which is going to make life even more miserable for Cutler.
The Vikings are on pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 in November, 4-0-1 against the NFC, 3-0-1 against losing teams and 3-0-1 in the division.
The Bears are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-8 as an underdog, 0-6-1 as a road dog and 0-4 against winning teams.
Take the Vikings minus the points as they grab the easy win and cover.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Larry Ness
STL +4 vs SEA
It's not often I recommend playing the Rams. After, it's not just that they are 1-9 this year but that follows the team going 2-14 last year and 3-13 the year before. The Seahawks beat the Rams 28-0 in Week 1 up in Seattle, spoiling Steve Spagnuolo's coaching debut with the Rams while posting its NINTH consecutive win over the Rams. The Seahawks are averaging 29.7 PPG during that nine-game series winning streak but one has to look at how the Seahawks have played away from this year. They are 0-5 SU and ATS, getting outscored on average, 32.2-to-14.6 PPG. Note that the Seahawks went just 2-6 on the road last year as well and 'limp' into this game with a injury to their best RB (Jones), injuries on the OL plus defensive injures in both the LB and 2ndy units. While the Rams are 1-9, they have covered their last three games, winning 17-10 at Detroit plus then covering as home 'dogs vs the Saints ad Cards, who are a combined 17-3 on the year. This marks the Rams' THIRD straight home game and they do own the best player on the field, RB Steven Jackson. He ranks second in the NFL in rushing with 1,031 yards and has topped 100 yards in each of his last four games, averaging 132.5 YPG. Another excellent effort from Jackson will make things easier on Kyle Boller, who will make his third start of the season in place of Bulger, who is expected to miss three to six weeks with a broken left shin bone suffered last Sunday. The Rams have covered the last two Sundays at home as an underdog but here they not only cover but win OUTRIGHT!
O.C. Dooley
Pick: Texans +3
Even though Indianapolis is riding an amazing 19-game regular season winning streak which is two short of equaling a league record, statistically they show alot of similarities to today's opponent. Both teams rely heavily on the pass since they have very low #30 and #31 league rankings in the rushing department. I am aware that Indianapolis is 14-1 when facing Houston in this series, but the gap is shrinking as the most recent three meetings have been decided by 5-or-less points including a 20-17 final verdict three weeks ago. Even though the Colts once again came out on top on the scoreboard, Houston actually had a NINE minute "time of possession" advantage. Basically a lost fumble in the red zone along with a Kris Brown missed 42-yard field goal as time expired cost the Texans an outright upset. The location of today's game is important since Houston is a positive 5-2 ATS/HOME recently against Peyton Manning and company. Houston is also a postive 27-11 ATS long term when shaking off consecutive outright losses. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-10 since 1983) that plays ON home teams like Houston off consecutive clashes that stayed below the total, in a game involving a pair of quality offenses that average 23-to-27 points per game. Here is a 79-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-9 since 1983) which goes AGAINST favorites like Indianapolis after gaining less than 100 rush yards in 3 consecutive contests, up against an opponent who just was outrushed by 100+ yards on the ground. Not only is this marquee early kickoff backed by a pair of very strong systems, Houston has COVERED EIGHT IN A ROW when cast as a home underdog!