Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Ravens -2
Motivated by two straight narrow defeats and having had a bye week to prepare, the defending Super Bowl champs will be ready to bounce back strong against a Cleveland team it has owned. With a win and cover in the season's first meeting, the Ravens improved to 11-0 in their last 11 against the Browns. These victories have come by an average of 12.5 points with each coming by at least 6. These two have met five times in Cleveland during this stretch with the Ravens winning those by an average of 12.0 points. The Ravens have gone 8-3 ATS during this span, including 5-0 ATS in Cleveland. Bet Baltimore.
Joseph D'Amico
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -14½
Just the facts, guys. The 0-7 Bucs are crushing the bettors at 1-6 ATS The entire organization is in tatters. They have managed to cover just one game this year and that was by 1 single point. The offense rushes for 93.6 YPG, passes for 204.1 YPG, and ranks 31st in both Total Yards (297.7) and Points Scored (14.3). QB, Mike Glennon has only played 4 games with a 58.6% CR, and a PR of 78.0. Outside of WR, Vincent Jackson, Glennon has no one else to check off to. With Doug Martin out, the ground game is a joke with the next leading rusher, Mike Jones gathering stats of 96 Total Yards Rushing on 26 carries, and 0 TDs. TB has to deal with the noisy Century Link Stadium and the Seattle rowdy fans. Let's face it, the Bucs have allowed their L3 foes to score 31 points apiece. How will they crack the NFL's 2nd best defense in Total Yards Allowed, 3rd vs. the pass, and 3rd in Points Scored, yielding a mere 15.6 PPG, and holding 11 of their L16 foes to 17 or less points. Seattle comes off their first lack-luster performance in the MNF win over St. Louis. At home, the 'Hawks are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, and are outscoring visitors by a combined 94-33. Seattle's offense is posting 25.6 PPG with workhorse, Marshawn Lynch leading the 4th ranked running team with 601 yards on the ground and 6 scores. Add Russell Wilson's 61% CR, 1628 YP, 13/4 TD/INT, and oh yeah…another 339 YR. He has a slew of capable pass-catchers. McDonald, Clemons, Avril, and Bennett lead a sack machine on "D". No matter what QB is at the helm for TB, it's going to be a long and painful day. Seattle is 21-8 ATS their L29 games vs. the NFC, 34-16-1 ATS their L51 home games, and 6-1 ATS their L7 following an ATS loss. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. the NFC, 1-4 ATS their L5 road games, and 0-4 ATS their L4 games played following an ATS loss. Take Seattle.
Dave Price
Buffalo Bills +4
Recent history suggests this is a great spot to back the Buffalo Bills. Plus, the Bills have given Kansas City fits. The Bills took it on the chin at New Orleans last Sunday, but they are on an 8-0 ATS run following a road loss, winning by an average score of 26.6 to 19.8 in this situation. They are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home following one or more consecutive losses, winning by an average of 8.4 points in this situation. The Bills are 5-1 in their last six against Kansas City with the five wins coming by an average of 18.4 points and the loss came by only three points in OT at Kansas City. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in these meetings. Buffalo is also 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five home games against the Chiefs, winning these by 18.2 points on average. At 8-0, the Chiefs have a big target on their back. Don't be surprised if the Bills knock it off. Take Buffalo and the points.
Jim Feist
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have jumped out to an early 2-0 start to the season after beating Orlando in OT in their first game and then beating Oklahoma City at home in game 2, 100-81. The Wolves are led by Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. Now we'll see how the Wolves play away from home as they travel to the Big Apple to take on the Knicks. New York is still looking for that first win after starting the season 0-2. So far the offense has been absent for the Knicks, scoring 83 in their season opening at home against the Bucks and then 81 at Chicago. The Bucks have had success at New York, covering eight of the last 11 meetings. Don't expect a lot of points in this one as the last five in New York have gone UNDER with the total eclipsing 186 total points just one time. Until I see something better out of the Knicks I'm going to stick with the points and the visitor in this one. Anything over four points with the Wolves is fine with me.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Cleveland/ Baltimore Under 41.5: Hard to see allot of points being scored here. the Cleveland offense did look better last week with Jason Campbell running the show, but they still put up just 17 points in the game vs a tough KC defense. The Browns have now scored just 18.5 ppg on the year, including just 15.7 ppg in their last 3 and earlier in the year vs this Baltimore defense they were able to muster just 6 points and 259 yards of offense. Speaking of that Baltimore defense, they have been playing very well this year, allowing just 16.5 ppg since giving up 49 points to the Broncos in the opener. The Ravens also play very well vs the Browns as they have won 10 straight vs them and in the last 9 they have given up an average of just 10.1 ppg in those 9 games. The Ravens offense is sputtering, having scored just 36 points in their last 2 games, while Cleveland has played good defense at home this year, allowing just 312.5 ypg and 21 ppg. This one has the feel of a sloppy low scoring game just like the last 6 in this series that has put up an average of just 32.5 ppg.
Tennessee -3 over ST LOUIS: Big scheduling advantage here as the Titans are off a bye week, while the Rams are on a short week after playing division rival Seattle on Monday night. In that game the Rams played their hearts out, but still came up short and that may lead to a bit of a letdown here. Kellen Clemmons is not suited to be an NFL QB and he showed that last week and will now be taking on another tough defense that has had tine to study him. The Titans are 24th in the league vs the Run and Zac Stacy is having a good year, but without much of a threat from Clemmons the Titans will be able to stack the box and take Zac out of the picture as well. Still with the nice play from Stacy the Rams are 24th in the league in rushing. The Titan offense hasn't been that good this year, but with the extra week to prepare you can expect some wringles in their offense and be able to put some points on the board vs a below average St Louis defense that really played WAY over their heads last week. Lets also note that since 1980, teams are 11-2 ATS if they are off a bye and on a 3 game losing streak, while taking on a team off a 7+ point spread win. Titans bounce back strong here.
2 UNIT PLAY
DALLAS -9.5 over Minnesota: The Vikes are a mess right now, while the Cowboys are itching to get back on the field after last week's horrible loss to the Lions. The Vikes are a better team with Ponder at the helm, but still AP can't get going and their defense is one of the worst in the league. That won't help vs a Dallas offense that is very good and will be even better with the return of RB Murray in this one. Dallas does have the worst pass defense in the league, but they stop the run very will and will do so here and dare Ponder to beat them. He won't be able to. Dallas by at least 14 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Washington Over 51: The San Diego offense has come alive this year as they are 4th overall, while scoring 24 ppg and are taking on a Skins defense that has been just awful this year, allowing 397.1 ypg and 32.7 ppg overall, including 33.7 ppg at home. The Washington offense has been inconsistent this year, but they have been looking better of late and they do score 30.7 ppg at home. The San Diego offense has played well of late, but I do see their poor pass defense struggling vs the Skins in this one. This game should be a fun shootout, with at least 55 points being scored.
DAVE COKIN
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BUFFALO BILLS
PLAY: BUFFALO BILLS
The Kansas City Chiefs are the story of the NFL season to date. If a team is still unbeaten on the first Sunday in November, it’s a terrific accomplishment. When it’s a team that was tied for the worst record in the league the prior season and also had the poorest point differential in the entire NFL, that story gets even better.
But let’s not get carried away. ESPN has Kansas City its top power rated team in the NFL heading into Week 9. Sorry, but in my opinion, that’s a little ridiculous. Credit where it’s due, KC is perfect on the season and that rates praise. But for ESPN to apparently be basing its power ratings on nothing more than wins and losses is so 20th century.
The Chiefs have taken full advantage of facing a spectacularly soft schedule. Dallas is their strongest opponent to date. I understand facing lower level teams week after week is not the fault of the Chiefs and they can only beat who they play. But strength of schedule simply must be factored into any power rating formula. If it’s not, then it’s a seriously flawed process.
I’m not here to slam the Chiefs, however. In fact, I’m thrilled they’re still perfect on the season and receiving such lofty plaudits from heavily viewed entities like ESPN. The payoff is that all this positive pub is serving to inflate the betting lines on the Chiefs, and that’s good news for value bettors.
Regardless of which side of the metric argument you’re on, their cannot be much debate that the Chiefs have probably played their two shakiest games of the season back to back. They barely escaped with a one-point win at Houston, and they sure didn’t dominate the Browns last weekend. I think the pressure could be starting to build with KC now the last team standing in the race for perfection, and they look ripe to be upset right about now.
Buffalo gets to try and bust up the KC perfecto today and I give the Bills a real shot to exactly that. I have the Bills as the best losing team in the league right now. That’s not to suggest Buffalo is a playoff caliber squad or anything like that. But they’re at the top of the charts as far as the middle of the road entities are concerned.
I make this game a virtual coin flip, with the Chiefs the narrowest of favorites off the data I weigh most heavily. The number where it is right now is more in line with where I’d have it on a neutral field. The Chiefs only substantial unit edge here is on special teams. While I rank KC higher than the Bills on both offense and defense, the margins on both units is borderline negligible.
The biggest concern I have today is that the Chiefs have been great at finding ways to win close games, something the Bills have yet to master. But I’ve got some legitimate wiggle room with the spread currently higher than a FG. At that price, backing the home dog Bills is the way I’m going to play.
Nelly
Minnesota Vikings + over Dallas Cowboys
Despite being 4-4 Dallas has a great point-differential with two one-point losses on the road and another narrow defeat at home to Denver. It has been an adventure for Minnesota with ugly losses in three straight games, using three different starting quarterbacks in those defeats. The Vikings have been a big underachiever that will feature value in many situations moving forward and the team has done its best scoring with Christian Ponder under center even if his numbers are marginal. Dallas has a well documented run of failure as a favorite in recent years including going 6-16 ATS the last 24 games as a favorite and 5-10 the last 15 as a double-digit favorite where this line could get back to. Coming off a run of big games and with the Saints next this could be a flat spot for Dallas. The Cowboys are the best ATS team in the NFL this season but that run of success is not likely to last for one of the most popular teams in the league.
Scott Gramling
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -2
While road favorites are 9-1 ATS in November games over the past five seasons when coming off a road loss, all road teams coming off a road loss are 23-5 ATS in games after the first month of the season where the line is between +3 and -3. The Ravens are 25-15 ATS under head coach John Harbaugh in games where the line is between +3 and -3, and they’re 15-6 ATS under Harbaugh in road games after an ATS loss.
Matt Fargo
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +4
Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL as it moved to 8-0 with its win last week against the Browns. The Chiefs have played good enough to be undefeated but this is arguably one of the weakest undefeated teams this late into the season that we have seen in a long time. They are not near the top in many power rankings and the big thing is the schedule they have played as it ranks as the easiest in the league thus far. Kansas City has played only one team ranked in the top half of the NFL and that was a one-point home win against Dallas. Every other opponent has a losing record and on top of it, five of the eight games have been at home. Additionally, the Chiefs are coming off a three-game homestand so they have not played on the road in a month and that will make this challenge even more difficult despite playing another team with a losing record. The Bills are 3-5 following a loss in New Orleans last Sunday but they were competitive for the most part but the situation they were in was brutal. They were facing a Saints team that is unstoppable at home, were coming off their first loss of the season and were also coming off their bye week. Not many teams can face that and expect to win. Prior to that, Buffalo won in Miami, lost in overtime against Cincinnati, lost to Cleveland after losing its starting quarterback and defeated Baltimore. That is a pretty good run for a team not many expected to win many games this season and the Bills are right in the Wild Card hunt. The schedule sets up well also with the Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Dolphins after that. This is a tougher team at home than most give them credit for. Buffalo has numerous angles going its way as well as it is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games coming off a road loss while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a loss. Additionally, the Chiefs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games coming off two consecutive home wins and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Even with Thad Lewis out, I feel the Bills have a great shot at taking this one outright.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Cleveland Under 41.5
This series has gone under in the last six meetings with an average of just 32.5 points per game. The main reason is that the Browns have had a very difficult time finding the end zone against the Ravens, scoring 10, 14, 16, 15 and six points in the last five meetings. The Browns QB situation is a mess. In eight games this season, Cleveland has topped the 20-point mark just twice. The run-oriented Ravens haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard either, scoring 20 points or less in four of their last six games. It's another ugly Ravens-Browns affair. Go under.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5
The Eagles offense has looked poor the last two weeks, but they were not healthy at quarterback. We know Foles can run this offense because we have seen him do it before. With all the talk about the Eagles lack of offense it must be noted that this defense is starting to really come around. Oakland is improving and they play a college football style run game with the quarterback, but that only lasts so long in the NFL. Pryor does not scare me throwing the ball and the real key for this game is that banged up Raiders Offensive Line. They have starters and backups out. If any of them go down today they might have to put guys from the defensive line in the game. I think the Eagles Offense will get back on track against a defense in Oakland that has not played together as a unit for that long. It will be interesting to see how they communicate against a complex offense like Philadelphia’s. Oakland is getting too much love while the Eagles are betting bashed for not putting up 60 a game with Chip Kelly. I think the public is fooled today. Take Philly.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots sit atop the AFC East at 6-2 but it’s hardly been an impressive first half of the season for the Pats (4-4 ATS), especially for QB Tom Brady. Brady KNOWS he can play better and thinks his team can as well. Brady and the Pats look to establish some consistency and remain unbeaten at home, by capitalizing on a game with the Steelers, a team definitely in need of some improvement considering its current 2-5 record.
Brady is having his worst season as a pro, completing 55.7 percent of his passes with nine TDs, six INTs and a QB rating of 74.9, 20.7 below his career mark. Brady’s recent numbers in the team’s last four games (Pats are 2-2), are even worse, as he completing 52.3 percent of his pass attempts for 810 yards with two TDs, four INTs and a 61.6 QB rating. "We're trying," Brady said. "There are a lot of things we can do better." Despite uncharacteristically low numbers from Brady, the Pats lead the Jets by two games in the AFC East.
That’s something the Steelers are well aware of. "You can pick apart his numbers, but the only one that matters is 6-2," Pittsburgh safety Ryan Clark said. "When you give Tom Brady a chance to win a football game, he's going to do it." Beating Pittsburgh is something Brady has become well accustomed to. He’s won SIX of eight meetings, including both in the postseason, tossing 16 TDs with just three interceptions. Protecting Brady has been an issue in 2013, as he’s been sacked 23 times already, just four fewer than all of last season.
The good news for New England fans is that the Steelers, have managed just 10 sacks on the year, one more than league-worst Chicago. However, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing an average of 302.9 YPG. "They have a good defense and the way we've been playing offensively, we can't be up and down like we've been," Brady said. "We have to be more consistent. Hopefully this is our best week to be able to do that." Offense has been Pittsburgh’s problem this year, as the Steelers haven’t cracked 30 points all season, reaching as many as 20 points just twice (in losses to Chicago and Minnesota).
That hardly bodes well here in Foxboro, where the Pats have played excellent defense. New England allowed 27 points against the Saints (understandable) but scored 30 in a winning that game. In team's other three home games, they’ve allowed a total of just 30 points. Pittsburgh comes in with an offense tied for 27th in scoring (17.9 PPG), with a patchwork offensive line that lost three more players to injury last week. That will slow the running game and Roethlisberger was sacked five times in Oakland, boosting his season total to 26.
Just no way I want ANY part of the Steelers in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Jets +7
The Jets are being undervalued based on last weeks performance against the Bengals. New York is a solid team with typically a very good defense. They have held opponents to 20.7 points per game at home this season, while allowing just 87 rushing yards per game. The secondary has allowed a mere 53.3% completion percentage in those games.
The Saints do not have that potent offense that would run the score up on opponents like past seasons. They are averaging 23 points per game on the road, and I expect them to struggle to match that number against this very solid Jets defense. After last week's loss I expect the Jets to come out and play a great game. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after giving up more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Jack Jones
San Diego Chargers +1
Coming off a bye, the San Diego Chargers are the play in Week 9. This team was coming into its own heading into the bye, and it's looking great right now at 4-3 in the AFC.
Washington is just 2-5 on the season and its two wins are questionable to say the least. Its two wins have come against backup quarterbacks. It beat Oakland's Matt Flynn and beat Chicago's Josh McCown, but barely.
The Redskins have been giving up big numbers through the air, which makes this a terrible matchup for them. Washington ranks 26th against the pass, giving up 273.7 yards per game. San Diego ranks 6th in the league in passing offense at 294.1 yards per game.
Plays on any team (SAN DIEGO) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Chargers Sunday.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for today is on the Carolina Panthers, laying a rather big number to their NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons on Tobacco Road.
The Panthers are on a 5-1 ATS streak in NFC South games.
I know the Falcons will be competitive in this game, as they're in must-win mode and have no choice but to win this game in order to salvage the season. But, I don't think it's going to happen, and when all said and done, it'll be the Panthers pulling away late for the win and cover.
Big deal, the Falcons may have looked good in a victory over Tampa Bay, but then they turn around and have a poor showing in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals. Today they play the surging Panthers, and they can't let up one bit, as they'll host Seattle next week. Carolina is going to be led by Cam Newton, who has been outstanding in throwing the ball all over the place in wins against Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Plus, he's been able to run the ball effectively to help balance things out.
Trust me here, Carolina not only has a balanced offense that rests in Newton's hands, it also has a dominating defense. The Panthers have a Top 5 defense and are in after limiting the Bucs to 48 yards rushing and 297 yards overall. They have the No. 9 pass defense, and that's exactly what they'll need against the high-flying Falcons.
This is a pivotal NFC South clash, and I like the surprising second-place Carolina Panthers, as they've covered 5 of 6 in NFC South play.
2♦ CAROLINA