Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 30

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Toronto at LA Lakers
The Raptors head to Los Angeles tonight where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus the Lakers. Toronto is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6)

Game 801-802: San Antonio at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 127.827; Boston 113.724
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 210
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Chicago at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.300; Brooklyn 119.069
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+3 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: Golden State at Detroit (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 125.710; Detroit 114.255
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 11 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 8 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Memphis at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 124.883; Sacramento 124.445
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+2 1/2); Under

Game 809-810: Miami at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 114.809; New York 114.977
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3; 191
Dunkel Pick: New York (+3); Under

Game 811-812: Orlando at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.433; Phoenix 123.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 13; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 206
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under

Game 813-814: Minnesota at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.156; Portland 124.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 11; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 13; 213
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+13); Over

Game 815-816: Toronto at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 125.204; LA Lakers 116.644
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 8 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 6; 212
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6); Over

NHL

Vancouver at Detroit
The Canucks head to Detroit this afternoon following a 5-0 win at Columbus and come into today's contest with a 1-6 record in their last 7 games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Detroit is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2.Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125)..

Game 51-52: Vancouver at Detroit (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.822; Detroit 12.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Iona at Arkansas
The Gaels head to Arkansas today following a 126-76 win over Delaware State on Wednesday and come into the contest with a 3-11 ATS record in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Arkansas is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Razorbacks favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-12 1/2).

Game 817-818: Texas at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 72.731; Connecticut 71.313
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+1 1/2)

Game 819-820: Air Force at Texas Tech (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 53.173; Texas Tech 60.053
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+9 1/2)

Game 821-822: Providence at Kentucky (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.427; Kentucky 85.657
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 22
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 20
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-20)

Game 823-824: Stanford at DePaul (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 68.458; DePaul 55.355
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 13
Vegas Line: Stanford by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-8 1/2)

Game 825-826: Bowling Green at Detroit (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 53.527; Detroit 59.754
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4)

Game 827-828: Richmond at Northern Iowa (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 58.209; Northern Iowa 67.597
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-7 1/2)

Game 829-830: USC at New Mexico (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 55.286; New Mexico 61.519
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 9
Dunkel Pick: USC (+9)

Game 831-832: Delaware at Villanova (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 46.237; Villanova 73.944
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 28
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+28)

Game 833-834: Southern Mississippi at Drexel (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 53.876; Drexel 57.304
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-2)

Game 835-836: California at Fresno State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 67.738; Fresno State 53.595
Dunkel Line: California by 14
Vegas Line: California by 7
Dunkel Pick: California (-7)

Game 837-838: Elon at Miami (OH) (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 49.189; Miami (OH) 51.462
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 5
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+5)

Game 839-840: Santa Clara vs. Rider (10:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 50.736; Rider 51.159
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+2)

Game 841-842: Michigan State vs. Kansas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 70.744; Kansas 71.910
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 1
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+1)

Game 843-844: Tennessee vs. Marquette (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 61.484; Marquette 59.863
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+3)

Game 845-846: Georgia Tech vs. Rhode Island (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 60.684; Rhode Island 64.960
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 2
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (-2)

Game 851-852: Western Michigan vs. San Diego (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 56.000; San Diego 56.089
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+1 1/2)

Game 853-854: Long Beach State vs. Xavier (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 60.592; Xavier 64.929
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 7
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+7)

Game 855-856: Princeton vs. San Jose State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 47.494; San Jose State 43.106
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 6
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+6)

Game 857-858: Washington vs. UTEP (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 63.793; UTEP 61.245
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2)

Game 859-860: Southern Utah at TX-San Antonio (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 37.877; TX-San Antonio 44.573
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+8 1/2)

Game 861-862: Tennessee Tech at Tulane (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 43.492; Tulane 55.316
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 11
Vegas Line: Tulane by 7
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-7)

Game 863-864: Iona at Arkansas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 58.629; Arkansas 73.046
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-12 1/2)

Game 865-866:VMI at Maryland (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 46.322; Maryland 67.098
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 21
Vegas Line: Maryland by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VMI (+23 1/2)

Game 867-868: Montana at San Francisco (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 49.030; San Francisco 56.015
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+9 1/2)

Game 869-870: Monmouth at SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 50.689; SMU 68.098
Dunkel Line: SMU by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-15 1/2)

Game 871-872: North Dakota State at Montana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 57.784; Montana State 47.365
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-3 1/2)

Game 873-874: Portland State at Oregon (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 51.819; Oregon 71.281
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon by 15
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-15)

Game 891-892: Army at Duke (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 51.748; Duke 80.129
Dunkel Line: Duke by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 26
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-26)

Game 893-894: Lipscomb at Colorado (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lipscomb 45.693; Colorado 63.966
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 15
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-15)

Art Aronson

Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Washington Redskins

RG III and company kept it close in San Francisco last weekend and I think the offensive unit will have a much easier time moving the ball against the Colts; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe this is too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side. Washington is just 3-8, but its overall stats simply aren’t that horrible. 7th overall in passing, 16th in rushing yards, 10th in opponent passing yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. How about the Colts? Indianapolis is No. 1 in the league in passing, but just 17th in rushing yards. It’s also dismal defensively, 27th in opponent passing yards and 17th in opponent rushing yards. Washington will have its opportunities on offense today. The Colts are on the road in Cleveland the following week, so this doesn’t set up as a “look ahead” spot, but note Andrew Luck and the Indinapolis offensive line looked pretty shaky vs. the Jaguars, Luck finished 21 of 32 for just 253 yards with one TD pass and ran eight times for 49 yards; but note that he was sacked five times, fumbled three times and lost two, all in the first half. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of suspect lines I always keep my eyes open for, consider a second look at WASHINGTON in this one.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Strike Point Sports

Jacksonville (+2.5) over New York Giants

Neither of these teams deserves to be favored, and because of that there is tremendous value on the dog. The Giants looked good versus Dallas, but they are known to completely fall apart towards the end of a season. They are either on fire or a dumpster fire. This season is the latter. The Giants are coming in to this game on a huge letdown and off of four extremely difficult games, versus Indy, Seattle, San Fran, and Dallas. This is a game that they lose outright, and the NY papers start screaming for Coach Tom's head. Sorry Giants fans, but you are not winning this game this weekend. It is nice to have the points in this one, but they won't be necessary. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an S.U. loss and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Jags, meanwhile, are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Week 13 games. The Jags seem to have a ton of value late in the season as they spent the rest of the season getting knocked around. Take the points in this one on the home dog, as they win outright.

Allen Eastman

Pittsburgh (-4) over New Orleans

Here we have a Steelers team that will be well rested after the bye. The Steelers are in a heated battle for their division crown, and they can't let any games slip from their grasp. The Saints at least have a fighting shot when they are playing at home. But they have lost three in a row there, including that loss on MNF. The Steelers come in to this game on a three-game home winning streak in games where they beat Houston, Indy, and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS at home. The Steelers are the type of team that knows a game like this could make or break their season, and they are aware of the ramifications if they let this game slip. New Orleans is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five week 13 games. This one is just too good to pass up. Take the home team here.

Sleepyj

Washington Redskins +10

I gave out Washington thinking RG3 would play this game. However the line hasn't moved and giving Colt Mcoy a 2nd or 3rd shot at life here i feel just as good backing this team. I think Washington has a good enough defense to slow down TY Hilton and this passing attack. I'm not a big fan of the Indy run game and i favor Washington in running the ball here. Washington and the coaching staff has not given up yet on the season and i wonder if Indy may overlook this team. if they do they can get beat outright. I like the double digits here and i think Washington makes this one very interesting.

Teddy Covers

Patriots / Packers Under 59

NFL Totals don’t get much higher than this, with the current Over/Under posted in the 58/59 range for Sunday’s Patriots – Packers clash. And I can certainly understand why this total is posted in this range – we’re looking at two teams that rank #1 and #2 in points scored this season; two teams with elite QB’s playing at the top of their game; and two teams that are a combined 12-2 to the Over since the beginning of October.

But all of that is most assuredly factored into this inflated number – the bookmakers and the betting markets aren’t flying blind at this late stage of the season. Game temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be below freezing at kickoff, with the lookahead weather forecast showing the potential for foggy conditions as well (never a good thing for either downfield passing game). And both teams are likely to emphasize the run on Sunday, efforting to control the clock, control the gameflow and keep the opposing elite quarterback off the field.

And make no mistake about it – we’re talking about two Super Bowl caliber defenses here! Both the Packers and the Patriots rank among the top dozen NFL defenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game on this field since Week 2. They’ve held nine of their last ten foes to 24 points or less. Cornerbacks Tremon Williams and Sam Shields have been stellar all year; while safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix have kept nearly everything in front of them.

The Patriots are a team capable of changing their gameplan completely from one week to the next. Two weeks ago, New England spent more than half the game in a power run formation with six offensive linemen, grounding out yards against the Colts. Last week, the Pats opened the game with a 52-13 pass-to-run ratio before garbage time against the Lions. In this particular matchup, I’m expecting a classic Belichick switcheroo back to a run-first attack; looking to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible and to take advantage of a Packers run defense that’s a notch or two weaker than their pass D.

New England’s defense has held nine of their last ten opponents to 25 points or less, controlling the flow week after week. And the strength of that defense, much like that of the Packers, is in the secondary. Darrelle Revis and Alfonzo Dennard are both legitimate shutdown corners. Safeties Devin McCourtey and Patrick Chung simply don’t get burned deep very often. Last week in this space, I recommended a play on the Patriots Under vs. Detroit an it cashed thanks to the Pats keeping the Lions out of the end zone. I don’t think New England keeps Green Bay out of the end zone here, but I’m certainly not expecting a shootout in which both teams approach 30 points, and that’s what it’ll take to cash an Over ticket.

King Creole

Panthers / Vikings Under 43

My dog SPEEDEE has been kicking ass lately with his NFL Underdogs AND his NFL 'Unders'. He'll go LOW this week in the Panthers / Vikings game featuring two dysfunctional offenses. Minnesota is ranked #30 in offensive YPG this year (only 308.2)... and Carolina is ranked #23 (327.2 YPG). In addition, both teams are averaging LESS than 20 ppg (Min: 18.4 / Car: 19.5).

The Panthers come into this one off their Bye Week... 1-9 O/U L5Y: All non-division road dogs playing with REST (Panthers) when the OU line is < 44 points.

Carolina also comes in on a current FIVE-game losing streak... 2-14 O/U L3Y / 0-8 O/U L12 months / 0-4 O/U THIS season: All road dogs of 9 < pts playing off 5 or more SU losses in a row (Panthers)... when the OU line is 48 < points.

Meanwhile, the host Vikings are in the middle of 3 straight 'homies' in a row.... 3-17 O/U since '84 / 0-8 O/U since '98: All teams in the 2nd of 3 STRAIGHT home games (Min) off a SU loss that went 'Under' in their last game.

This game features two of the worst teams in the league (Min: 4-7 SU / Car: 3-7-1 SU)... 3-13 O/U since '07 / 0-5 O/U last 3 years: All GAME 11 or greater < .400 home favs of < 5 points (Min) vs a < .400 opponent (Car).

Sealing the deal are the UNDER-whelming recent tendencies of this series. Minnesota and Carolina are 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings, with an avg of just 36.4 total PPG.

Bill Biles

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2½

With last weeks lose to the Seahawks the Cardinals have to win games to stay atop the NFC West. The Falcons are 0-6 when Matt Ryan throws a pick, and I don't see how he can come out of this game without one. The Cardinals defense will again play well enough to overcome their offensive struggles. Cardinals win a big game on the road.

Carlo Campanella

San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -6

The Ravens went to the Super Dome and beat the Saints as our "Monday Night Game of the Year." Now they'll host a Chargers team that's on a 2-3 losing skid, with their only 2 wins coming against over-matched foes in St. Louis (4-7) and Oakland (1-10). The Ravens are 7-4 on the season, but with ALL 4 teams in their AFC North division owning winning records, they need a home win Sunday to keep pace in their division race. Expect them to get that win as they're 5-0 SU & ATS as favorites against the AFC West behind HC John Harbaugh. Lay the points with the Ravens, who have won 4 STRAIGHT home games- They're not just winning at home, but blowing out their opponents as those four home victories came by 14, 20, 22 & 28 points!

Randall The Handle

THE BEST

Bengals (7-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-9)

The Buccaneers should have covered for us last week in this slot but failed. That’s not why we’re hopping right back on them. It’s more because they are in a favourable scheduling position and we’ve also seen a notable improvement on defence. Cincinnati will play its third consecutive road game after winning previous two. However, the Bengals were underdogs in both of those games and are now being asked to spot better than a field goal under these adverse conditions. Cincy could get caught napping here as they have a challenging December ahead that begins with a home game with the Steelers, one of four teams in a near dead heat in the AFC North. Following that one, the Bengals are at Cleveland, home to Denver and then finishing in Pittsburgh. In addition, starting right tackle Andre Smith was put on IR this week and the Bengals are in a bit of a scramble to replace him on the offensive line. That is sure to have effect on both pass protection and the running game. The Bucs aren’t winning but they play hard and this is their only home game in a month. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3½

Panthers (3-7-1) at Vikings (4-7)

Each time it appears that the door is about to slam shut on the Panthers’ season, it suddenly swings open again. As despicable as it may sound, a win here could put Carolina in sole possession of first place in the NFC Gone South division. With the Saints traveling to Pittsburgh and Arizona visiting the woeful Falcons, it very well could happen. The Panthers have had an extra week to heal some of their wounded and while they had been struggling defensively, they encountered some stiff competition prior to the break having faced Cincinnati, Green Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia. These Vikings are more their speed. Minnesota can play some defence but its offence is one of the least potent in the league, ranking slightly above the lacklustre offences of Jacksonville and Oakland. Rebuilding teams such as the Vikes are much better to get behind when receiving points. Spotting points is foreign to them. Getting wins is challenging enough, let alone by a margin. Minny has been favoured twice this season but only by one point each time, losing by 14 and winning by three. TAKING: PANTHERS +3

Dolphins (6-5) at Jets (2-9)

Are the Jets a crummy team? Answer: Yes. Are the Dolphins better than their 6-5 record would indicate? Answer: Yes. Are we willing to give away a converted touchdown to support those affirmations? Answer: Not on your life. This is a prime-time game that the Jets hardly deserve but one they’ll be hosting for all the land to see. We saw Gang Green deliver a stellar performance on a Thursday night in New England, coming up just short in a 27-25 battle. The Jets were a 9½-point dog in that one and while things have not gone well for Rex Ryan’s club, should Miami really be a 7-point choice on a cool night up in New Jersey? The Fish have had trouble stopping the run recently and that happens to be New York’s bread and butter (perhaps not by choice) ranking 5th in the NFL. Geno Smith returns to pivot the Jets and after learning from the bench for a few weeks, New York is hopeful he can execute at his position. Even if he’s mediocre, we’ve got plenty of room for a cover here. TAKING: JETS +7

THE REST

Redskins (3-8) at Colts (7-4)

Robert Griffin III is benched and now Colt will face the Colts. While this may seem like a lot of points, the current mental makeup of the Redskins has to be considered and that shies us away from the visitor. Washington’s quarterback carousel now has its third-stringer starting in the back end of consecutive road games after a tasking affair in San Francisco last week. While Americans will be feasting on Turkey this holiday weekend, the Colts feast on these type of opponents regularly. In their five games against losing teams, Indy has outscored its opposition by 181-89. Indianapolis’ top ranked passing game should have little trouble disposing of its gloomy guests. TAKING: COLTS -9½

Titans (2-9) at Texans (5-6)

When these two met one month ago, it was Tennessee’s rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger’s first career start. The Texans won that game with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm for Houston but he was benched shortly thereafter in favour of Ryan Mallett, the latter gone for the season now. So Fitz is back and that’s a good thing, if you’re backing the Titans of course. The win against Tennessee was Fitzpatrick’s only victory in his past five games as starter. It was also the only time in seven starts that the turnover prone QB didn’t give the ball away. The law of averages is heavily on our side here, both statistically and just from having observed the lame Houston quarterback. TAKING: TITANS +7

Browns (7-4) at Bills (6-5)

Cleveland’s record is better than they are and that has discounted this pointspread to a level that warrants our attention. The Browns have played only one winning team in the past six weeks. That was that Thursday night game when they clobbered a Cincinnati team that forgot to show up. While Buffalo may not be elite, they are certainly more formidable that the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, Texans and Falcons. The Bills have struggled offensively but they put it all together on Monday night when they hammered the Jets. They now return to home where they are best and their strong defence should have no trouble keeping this ragged Cleveland offence in check. TAKING: BILLS -2½

Chargers (7-4) at Ravens (7-4)

San Diego has not covered in six straight but these are most points being offered this season other than a trip to Denver. With some of its offensive players back in the lineup, the Chargers managed 27 points last week against a stingy Rams defence after the Bolts suffered a power outage during several weeks prior. Having RB Ryan Matthews back on the field and being productive, QB Philip Rivers is at his best. The Ravens are on a short week after winning in New Orleans and while they looked rather sharp in that win, they have been terribly inconsistent over this campaign. Prefer the generous points. TAKING: CHARGERS +6

Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville (1-10)

We catch the Giants in a vulnerable spot here after failing in an exciting one against hated Cowboys on Sunday night. The G-men are being asked to rebound in this lost season while having to give away road points at the same time. This New York squad has managed just five covers in past 17 road contests and have just one cover in past six games overall. Granted, they’ve faced much stiffer competition but the fear here remains to be a letdown, despite a 3-8 record. Jacksonville’s defence has seen improvements and they get one of their pass rushers back as Andre Branch returns after missing four games. TAKING: JAGUARS +2½

Raiders (1-10) at Rams (4-7)

Have you looked at St. Louis’ schedule during the past couple of months? We’ll save you the trouble. In order since Sept. 21: Dallas, at Philly, San Fran, Seattle, at Kansas City, at San Fran, at Arizona, Denver and San Diego. How did New England and Green Bay not get in there? While the Rams lost the majority of those games, they still managed wins against the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks and almost defeated San Diego last week. While some teams don’t get up for the meagre Raiders, St. Louis will welcome an opportunity to strut its stuff against a weak visitor. Raiders finally won a game but don’t expect lightning to strike twice. TAKING: RAMS -7

Saints (4-7) at Steelers (7-4)

The Saints arrive here demoralized after dropping an unheard of three straight in the Superdome. Meanwhile, the Steelers had quietly won four of five before having last week off. Now they are the beneficiary of the late bye week and New Orleans could feel the wrath of that. The Saints can’t stop the pass as they are down a couple of key secondary guys and Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of taking advantage with his speedy and shifty offensive playmakers. Pittsburgh’s defence gets a boost as some of its wounded return, namely LB Ryan Shazier and CB Ike Taylor. New Orleans’ only road win this season was in Carolina. Doubtful they can pull this one off. TAKING: STEELERS -4½

Cardinals (9-2) at Falcons (4-7)

While some question how good the Cardinals really are, they certainly lay over this blundering opponent. The Falcons have not won a game outside of their division, a current 0-7 run. Much can be attributed to a gruesome offensive line that should have Arizona frothing at the mouth with their talented array of pass rushers. Atlanta won’t be able to run either as no team can run against the Cards and the Falcons couldn’t even run on the 29th ranked Cleveland run stoppers last week. As for coaching, we get Bruce Arians who is a strong candidate for Coach of the Year against Mike Smith, Coach Most Likely Fired on December 29th. TAKING: CARDINALS -2½

Patriots (9-2) at Packers (8-3)

Doesn’t get much better than this as both are the current favourites to take their respective conference, perhaps making this a Super Bowl preview. Both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been on fire lately and picking between them is a futile exercise. Both are great and the game will be won on which defence can make a stop or two on the opposing team’s offence. While fading New England as an underdog has proven to be an unprofitable undertaking, the Packers have been so dominant at home this season that we are giving them the nod here. Green Bay is 5-0 at Lambeau, outscoring its visitors by an astonishing 219-85 in the process. Expect lots of points in what sets up as the game of the year. TAKING: PACKERS -3

Broncos (8-3) at Chiefs (7-4)

With Kansas City’s last game being a loss to the then 0-10 Raiders and now facing the mighty Broncos, the ‘sheeple’ will be all over Denver at this cheap price. That could prove costly. Firstly, the line is telling you something. Denver was a 13-point favourite when these two first met in early September. Granted, KC had lost its opener to Tennessee and that was just their second game but here we are some nine weeks later and Denver is just a 2-point favourite? It just doesn’t pass the smell test. Secondly, let’s not forget the Broncos had dropped two of three before squeaking by the Dolphins at Mile High last week. This one has warning signs all over it and we’re taking notice. TAKING: CHIEFS +2

Wunderdog

Arizona @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +2.5

Atlanta is 4-7. And they are in first place! The Falcons have a strong reason to find the win column here as they are fighting for the division crown. They can pass the football almost as well as anyone at #7 in the NFL, and they have won two of the last three. It could be a three-game win streak if the head coach hadn't blown last week's game. Atlanta is home and are a decent bounce-back team at 37-14-3 ATS after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. They face an Arizona team that is 9-2 but has warts. The Cards are one-dimensional on offense (#31 in rushing), which means the Falcons can unleash the blitz on backup QB Drew Stanton (5 TDs, 3 INTs, and 53.6% completions). And it doesn't help the passing game when star WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) isn't healthy. Arizona has scored 14 and 6 points in the last two games. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 26-14 ATS following a loss. Grab the home dog and play on Atlanta.

Mike O'Connor

New Orleans (+4.5) 29 PITTSBURGH 31

Since beating the Panthers to move to 4-4 on the season the Saints have been reeling, losing their last three, all at home, and now have to travel to Pittsburgh to try and get a win against a 7-4 Steelers team that have been very good at home (4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS). The Saints road woes are well documented and have continued this season as they are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. This is a tough spot for the Saints on the road on a grass surface on a short week after their emotionally draining 24-31 loss to the Ravens in primetime and with a home divisional game against Carolina on deck. New Orleans is right in the thick of it in the NFC South and they know that they can’t afford a loss here but the same can be said of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is in a heated divisional race with all four teams in the AFC North having seven wins.

The Steelers are coming off of their bye and look to be getting healthier with several key defensive players looking like they will return. However, Pittsburgh has a tendency to play down to the level of the competition they are facing (losses against the Bucs and Jets this season) and with a big divisional game on deck at Cincinnati, I don’t expect that we will see their best here. I don’t have any situations in play but my model favors the Steelers by about 3.5 points and with the Saints in a more desperate situation coupled with the Steelers tendencies, I’ll lean with the Saints in a high scoring game.

Oakland (+7) 19 ST. LOUIS 21

The Raiders pulled off the big upset win last week against the Chiefs for their first victory in 16 games and hope to carry that momentum into another winnable game in St. Louis against the Rams. Oakland found their run game last week in the form of Latavius Murray who carried 4 times for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns and sparked a run game that had been missing in action for most of the season. He left the game with a concussion and word on Friday is that he will be out for this game. The Raiders have played competitive football and are not as bad as their 1-10 record suggests as they are 4-1 ATS on the road this season and have played every game except one (a 13-23 loss at Cleveland) to within seven points.

Meanwhile, the Rams have been an up and down team all season, alternating wins with losses the past seven weeks. Although they had a chance to beat the Chargers at the end of the game last week, they were really outplayed in that game and were outgained 298 yards at 5.1 yppl to 412 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Chargers. St Louis has benefitted from a bit of positive fumble luck this season while the Raiders have had clear negative fumble luck as their opponents have lost only three of their fourteen fumbles on the season. The Raiders qualify in a 499-409-14 turnover based situation and my model only calls for a 3.7 point Rams win. I expect a young Oakland team to continue to build off of their positive momentum from last week and as a result I like the Raiders. It’s close to being a Best Bet but I’m going to pass and just offer a strong lean to Oakland.

BUFFALO (-2.5) 20 Cleveland 17

The Browns controlled the game last week against the Falcons with an offense that had a new look with wide receiver Josh Gordon in the lineup, a healthy Andrew Hawkins and Isaiah Crowell getting more opportunities at running back. They moved the ball easily, piling up 475 total yards at 6.8 yppl but nearly gave the game away as quarterback Brian Hoyer threw three costly interceptions. With the new lineup this offense should continue to improve but they’ll face a tough test against a Bills defense that has been outstanding so far this season. Buffalo has been good against both the run and the pass and overall have allowed just 312 yards at 4.9 yppl to teams that gain 336 yards at 5.3 yppl. Hoyer will face pressure in this game against a Bills defense that has generated 4.0 sacks per game against teams that typically allow 2.5.

Browns head coach Mike Pettine was defensive coordinator of the Bills last season and knows their personnel as well as anyone. He’ll have some good insight on how to best attack the weaknesses in the Bills defense and that should make for an interesting strategic battle as the Bills are clearly also familiar with Pettine’s defense. Offensively, the Bills don’t inspire a lot of confidence with below average rushing and passing attacks and a quarterback with the #26 QBR. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my model favors the Bills by 2.8 points. No real opinion for me in this one and a clear pass.

BALTIMORE (-6) 30 San Diego 19

The Ravens have the most underrated home field advantage in the NFL and it has been in full effect once again this season as Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS, winning by an average score of 26-11 at M&T Bank Stadium. The Chargers will have their hands full as they travel to play in a 10AM Pacific start time game against a Ravens team that has been impressive in winning their last two games. Baltimore should win this game on the ground with a rushing attack that has really kicked it into gear recently behind the running of Justin Forsett (908 yards at 5.8 ypr!) facing a Chargers rush defense that is just below average. On the other side, the Chargers won’t be able to run the ball against a Ravens rush defense that has allowed just 87 yards at 3.7 ypr against teams that gain 110 yards at 4.2 ypr. Making matters worse is the fact that the Chargers are now down to their fourth center this season with Rich Ohrnberger bring placed on IR this week. Rookie Chris Watt will get the start in his place. The Chargers have not been able to run the ball much this season, producing just 89 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.1 ypr on average.

The question is whether the Chargers very good passing attack (averaging 7.2 yps against teams that allow 6.2 yps) can exploit the Ravens secondary, which has had some issues this season. Last week the Ravens gave up 399 passing yards at 8.3 yps to Drew Brees and the Saints offense and there could be some opportunities for the Chargers in this game as well. The Chargers have not been good on the road this season (2-3 SU and ATS), losing by an average score of 18-26 but I expect that they’ll be prepared for battle in this game in what may amount to a playoff elimination game. They just don’t match up very well here and the Ravens qualify in a 676-502-40 situation that has me leaning their way.

HOUSTON (-7) 27 Tennessee 17

The Titans have now lost nine of their last ten games and are really struggling, losing those games by an average score of 16.6 -28.3. Things could very well get worse this week as they may be down three offensive lineman (center Brian Schwenke was placed in IR on Tuesday, left tackle Taylor Lewan and right tackle Michael Oher may not play). That’s not a good sign for a rookie quarterback making his 5th career start on the road, facing a disruptive Texans defensive line featuring JJ Watt. I expect Mettenberger to be in serious trouble this week, and if the Titans can’t establish any sort of ground movement, this game will get ugly. Last week they were only able to generate 54 rushing yards at 3.2 ypr in their 24-43 loss to the Eagles and for the season they are only averaging 90 yards at 4.3 ypr.

The Texans get quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back after Ryan Mallet was placed on season ending IR this week but it won’t make much of a difference as Houston will pound the ball on the ground against a Titans rush defense that has been horrible this season in allowing 146 rushing yards per game at 4.6 ypr to teams that gain 124 yards at 4.4 ypr on average. Last week they gave up 166 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr to the Eagles. Houston will be prepared to play well in this game off the home loss to Cincinnati I expect a focused effort from the better team with good match-ups. As a result, I like the Texans.

Washington (+9.5) 25 INDIANAPOLIS 29

Despite a solid defensive performance last week against the 49ers, the Redskins offense sputtered and as a result a change has been made at the quarterback position to Colt McCoy. McCoy has played well when given the opportunity this season (36 of 42 for 85.7% with 427 passing yards and 10.2 yps) as the Redskins beat the Titans and the Cowboys in his two game appearances. He’ll get another shot and should be an upgrade over Robert Griffin, who had really struggled since returning to his starters spot. From a yppl perspective, the Redskins are a decent team with an above average offense (averaging 364 total yards at 5.9 yppl against teams that allow 358 yards at 5.6 yppl) and an about average defense (allowing 331 yards at 5.5 yppl to teams that typically gain 342 yards at 5.5 yppl). They have really struggled due to their -9 turnover differential which has been driven by interceptions (only 4 on defense while Cousins and Griffin combined for 12 on offense). If his limited sample size completion percentage in this offense is any indication, McCoy should cut down on turnovers from the quarterback position.

Washington should be able to move the ball effectively, particularly on the ground , where the Colts are allowing 4.7 ypr against teams that average 4.3 ypr. If McCoy can limit the Redskins mistakes on offense they should keep this one close. Indy has really benefitted from their third down efficiency (2nd best on defense and 10th on offense) and if that slips the Redskins will have a shot in in this game. Washington benefits from a negative 110-199-8 situation that plays against Indy and my model only favors the Colts in this game by 5.7 points. On the other side, the Colts have played well at home in Andrew Luck’s career (17-6 ATS) and have beaten up on the bad teams that they have faced (18-4 ATS vs <.5 competition). Indy’s passing offense is among the best in the league (averaging 323 yards at 7.3 yps against teams that allow 253 yards at 6.5 yps) and will be facing a Washington secondary that may be a bit shorthanded due to injuries. I’ll pass with a lean to the Redskins.

TAMPA BAY(+3.5) 23 Cincinnati 22

As crazy as it is, the 2-9 Bucs are still in the NFC South division race, just two games back of Atlanta. Interestingly, they have gotten progressively better as the season has worn on after taking some time to acclimate new players to new schemes on both sides of the ball. Their defense in particular has played much better recently due to some personnel moves and more cohesion with the Cover 2. Offensively, they are also improved and the emergence of rookie wide receiver Mike Evans has helped what had been a struggling offense early on. Last week, the Bucs lost to the Bears in Chicago due to a -3 turnover differential but they really controlled the game, outgaining Chicago 367 yards at 4.9 yppl to 204 yards at 3.6 yppl. If we look back a little further we see that the Bucs have played very good defense recently, holding their last five opponents to an average of 19.2 points.

On the other side, the Bengals are coming off of two impressive road victories against the Texans last week (22-13) and against the Saints two weeks ago (27-10). This game might present a bit of a letdown for Cincinnati as they are travelling for their third consecutive week and are facing a 2-9 non-conference team. In addition, they have a huge divisional game on deck next week at home against the Steelers. It would be surprising to me to see Cincinnati bring their A game in this one. The Bucs have talent and are starting to put things together and I expect a focused performance from them in this game. I don’t have any situations in play in this game but I like the spot for Tampa and I’ll lean their way.

Carolina (+2.5) 20 MINNESOTA 18

Amazingly the Panthers come out of their bye week with just a 3-7-1 record but still right in the thick of the NFC South race after both New Orleans and Atlanta lost last week. With the time off the hope was that they would get some injured players back but it looks like their offensive line is in a state of flux after losing right tackle Nate Chandler last week and as of Friday it didn’t look good for Amini Silatolu, who appeared to be Chandlers’ replacement. Carolina knows that they can capture the NFC South by winning out and that begins this week in Minnesota. They should be focused and prepared to play well in this game but the injuries along their offensive line could be an issue facing a talented Vikings defensive front.

The Vikings have been dealing with injuries along their offensive line as well (left tackle Matt Khalil – knee) and this week put right tackle Phil Loadholt on IR. They lost right guard Brandon Fusco earlier this season. Mike Harris, an undrafted free agent who spent two years with the Chargers, will get the start for Loadholt. They’ll face a Panthers defensive line that can be disruptive and should be focused on stopping the run. After some early season difficulties, the Panthers have played far better up front recently and have allowed an average of just 89 rushing yards at 3.3 ypr their last four games. If Minnesota has trouble running the ball, they’ll have to rely on their league worst passing offense (averaging 192 yards at 5.1 yps against teams that gain 245 yards at 6.6 yps) and that could be a problem.

Carolina has the better quarterback and with extra time to recover off the bye, Cam Newton should have some of his mobility back and could present the Vikings with more of a duel threat than they have seen so far this season. Minnesota has had some very positive fumble luck so far this season only losing one of their four fumbles while their opponents have only lost four of their thirteen. As a result, they are +3 in net fumbles but are even in overall turnovers on the season, indicating a negative interception profile which is more likely to continue moving forward. My model favors the Panthers by 2.6 points so it looks to me like the wrong team is favored. I like the spot and think the Vikings good luck has driven some of their positive performance while Carolina is not as bad as they have shown and we should get their best in this game. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and I’m concerned about the Panthers offensive line on the road so it’s a pass for me.

ATLANTA (+1.5) 27 Arizona 23

With just a 4-7 record the Falcons remain on top of the bad NFC South and last week they had a chance to pull a game ahead of the pack but lost a close 24-26 game to the Browns as they squandered multiple opportunities. Winning that game would have made it three in a row for the Falcons and four consecutive games where they played well and/or had a chance to win the game at the end. Instead, they’ll attempt to get back on track this week against a Cardinals team that have over-performed this season due mainly to their 3rd best +10 turnover differential which has been driven mainly by an opportunistic defense (tied for second with 15 interceptions) and some fumble luck (only losing 4 of 12 fumbles on offense while their opponents have lost 5 of their 8). They are also in the top ten in 3rd down efficiency (7th best on defense and 8th best on offense). If there is any regression to the mean in either of those categories, as there likely will be in at least one, the Cardinals will take a step back.

Atlanta has the ability to move the ball in the air on a Cardinals defense that has allowed an average of 255 yards passing at 6.6 yps and we have a clear quarterback advantage in this game with Matt Ryan. The Falcons qualify in 153-93-6 and 68-27-2 situations and my model only favors the Cardinals by about a point. I don’t like the fact that Arizona is off a loss and Bruce Arians is 9-1 SU and ATS off a loss as a head coach. He’ll have his team prepared to bounce back and with Matt Ryan’s history against the Cardinals (9 interceptions in two games), I’ll just lean Atlanta’s way.

New England (+3) 29 GREEN BAY 30

This should be a great game featuring two of the best quarterbacks to ever play but it could be won on the ground as the Patriots will look to exploit the Packers poor run defense and control the clock, keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field. No one does a better job of being game plan specific and the Patriots pounded the Colts in Week 11 for 246 yards on the ground at 5.6 ypr as they took advantage of a soft Indy rush defense up the middle. I expect a similar approach this week against a Green Bay rush defense that is allowing 138 yards at 4.6 ypr and does not possess a lot of bulk up front. Success in the run game will open up play action for Tom Brady and their very good passing attack that is averaging 275 yards at 6.8 yps against teams that allow 231 yards at 6.1 yps. The Patriots should move the ball well and be able to put up some points in this game.

On the other side, the Packers pass offense has been off the charts (averaging 7.7 yps against teams that allow 6.5 yps) but they’ll face a New England pass defense that can match up well with the Green Bay receivers. The Packers will look for balance and may also employ a greater than average dose of the run game with Eddie Lacy getting added work. This game is really a toss up to me and I don’t have any situations that apply. My model favors the Packers by about 3.5 points but I like the way the Patriots match up. I’ll lean slightly with the Patriots plus the points.

KANSAS CITY (+1.5) 25 Denver 24

There are several intangibles that line up for the Chiefs in this game. First, the Broncos will be travelling to play their fourth game on the road out of their last five in the loudest environment in the NFL in Kansas City. Arrowhead will be rocking as this is only their second primetime home game in three years and in the other game in this situation this season, they crushed the Patriots 41-14, dominating from the start. Second, the Chiefs have confidence that they can beat Denver as they played them tough in their earlier match-up this season, a Week 2 17-24 loss in Denver where they outgained the Broncos 380-325 but were stopped on a fourth and goal from the two yard line with just fifteen seconds left. Kansas City has not beaten Denver in three tries since Any Reid has arrived and so they have triple revenge working in their favor. In addition, the Chiefs are coming off of an embarrassing 20-24 loss in primetime to the previously winless Raiders on Thursday night and have had some extra time to prepare for this game. This is the game the Chiefs have been focusing on all along as they know that they have to beat the Broncos at home for a chance at the division.

On the other side, the Broncos have shown some vulnerabilities the past few weeks with road losses to the Patriots and Rams and a close 39-36 win last week against the Dolphins. Denver is banged up on defense as well and could be missing or have limited key players in the lineup. Statistical indicators like the Broncos in this game but the Chiefs qualify in good 104-53-4 and 68-27-2 situations as well as a 42-15-55 underdog bounce-back trend. My model is strong, however, on the Broncos, favoring them by 11.9 points and as a result it’s a pass for me with a lean to the Chiefs.

NY JETS (+7) 16 Miami 21

This game looks like a complete mismatch on paper with an ascending Miami team that is fighting for their playoff lives facing a Jets team that appears to have given up on the season. Miami lost a hard fought 36-39 game last week in Denver to drop to 6-5 on the season and desperately need this game to stay within striking distance of a wild card playoff opportunity. I think they’ll get it here. Miami has played three teams with .500 teams, losing by an average score of 16-29.

New York decided to make the switch back to quarterback Geno Smith, whom the team has lost confidence in, to likely play out the rest of the season. Many players this week were baffled by the move and that does not bode well for a team that appears to be playing out the string with a lame duck coach. The Jets won’t be able to pass the ball in this game (averaging 174 yards at 4.7 yps against teams that allow 230 yards at 6.1 yps) facing a Dolphins pass defense that is allowing just 5.4 yps to teams that gain 6.4 yps on average. The Jets will look to pound the ball on the ground and may have an opportunity to do that against a Dolphins defense that is allowing 4.2 ypr against teams that gain 4.1 ypr on average and were just gashed last week in Denver for 203 rushing yards at 6.2 ypr.

There are situations going both ways in this game and my model favors Miami by 6.8 points. This game looks like a mismatch but this may be the Jets last rally at home in primetime against a division rival with a chance to essentially knock the Dolphins out or nearly out of the playoffs. It’s a pass for me with a lean to the Jets to keep it close in a low scoring game.

AC Dinero

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Denver Broncos -1.5

The Broncos have looked vulnerable the past few weeks. Something seems to be off from last years Super Bowl team. It isn't the defense, as it has played very well for the most part (3.4 ypc 5.8 ypa 37% 3rd down). They have had some injuries in recent weeks which have hurt this team. KC comes home off a tough loss at Oakland. Many had this team as a potential bust this year. But head coach Andy Reid has this team playing well, especially on 3rd down. In fact, both teams are stellar on 3rd down. The one achilles heel for the Chiefs is the rush defense (5.0 ypc). We'll look for the Broncos to pull out a close one on the road as they are the better team in the redzone and I don't believe the Chiefs can hit enough plays in the passing game to beat the Broncos