Marc Lawrence
NY Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Edges - Jaguars: 6-1 ATS home after scoring 7 or less points last game; and 4-1 ATS in this series. Giants: 0-7 ATS versus AFC South opponents off a SU loss; and 0-5 ATS away versus opponent with single revenge-exact. With the Giants off a heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys and just 0-7 ATS in their 6th away game of season versus non-division opponent, we recommend a 1-unit play on Jacksonville.
Sam Martin
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
After a hot 4-1 start to the season in which the Chargers covered the spread in all five games (including a one-point loss at Arizona and an outright underdog win at home vs. Seattle), San Diego has since gone 0-6 against the spread and seem to be getting worse as the season goes on. We'll fade the Chargers this Sunday and back the Ravens to stay in the hunt for the AFC North Division lead.
Ravens come in a bit underrated but at 7-4 with quality losses against winning teams in Cincinnati (twice), Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis, they are better than most realize. We backed Baltimore in their outright win at New Orleans last week, and we'll back them again to win easily against a San Diego offense that has only scored 40 points combined in their last three games. Ravens are 4-1 SU and ATS here at home where they are outscoring foes by a full 15 ppg. More of the same this week as San Diego's slide continues!
Joe Gavazzi
Arizona Cardinals -125
Atlanta continues to sport one of the worst defenses in the league at 26 PPG, 6.2 YPPL and a rush defense that allows foes to average 30 runs/game at 127/4.2. Yet, at 4-7 SU, they are amazingly tied for the NFC South Divisional lead. Those hopes take a major blow today against a far superior Arizona team. Despite last week's 19-3 loss at Seattle (outrushed 124-64), Arizona remains with a 2 game lead in the loss column over Seattle. The current run dating to last year is 16-4 SU, ATS. Arizona has covered their last 6 roles as favorite extending the run from last year to 9-1 ATS in that role. In addition under HC Arians, the Cards have been a good bet to bounce back. They are on a run of 7-0 SU, ATS in non-division contests following a defeat. Compare that to Atlanta's 4-12 ATS record in non-division frays. Amazingly, Arizona has posted this 9-2 SU record despite being outgained by an average of 18 YPG. A +10 net turnover margin will do that for you.
Stephen Nover
NY Giants -3
Sure it's been a hugely disappointing season for the Giants. But let's not get carried away. The Giants still are at least a level higher than the Jaguars.
Eli Manning versus Blake Bortles is a mismatch. Bortles has been a turnover machine and is getting worse the more he plays with his confidence shot. The Jaguars did not do him a favor by rushing him into the lineup. Bortles has become Geno Smith South with 15 interceptions while being sacked 27 times in nine games.
Manning has his best running back, Rashad Jennings, back plus Odell Beckham Jr. is developing into a star with 31 catches for 503 yards during his last four games.
The Giants' record is so poor because they have played a murderous schedule. This is their first easy opponent in eight weeks. Jacksonville's record is so poor because they are legitimately horrible.
This likely is Tom Coughlin's final season as Giants head coach. Coughlin still has enough pride to keep his team from suffering an embarrassing loss to this bad of a team.
Brady Kannon
Baltimore -6
Still plenty of 6's available out there but the opening 5.5's look to be long gone. However, I would not be surprised to see this flirt with -7 come game time.
From a pure ratings standpoint, I would make this about a 4.5- maybe as much as 5.5 spread, as was the opener.. but there are some factors here in addition to the money coming in on Baltimore, that I believe justify a higher line. First off all, I think you have to consider a higher value given to The Ravens for home field advantage as they are 4-and-1 SUATS at home this season. They ALWAYS seem to get it done at home but Las Vegas is yet to award them a higher value for HFA. In their wins this year at home, the average margin of victory is 15-points. Secondly, San Diego is down to its 4th string Center. A rookie, Chris Watt will get the start.
The Chargers rushing attack has been less than pedestrian this season.. and it has really gone as Ryan Matthews has gone - good early and better as of late with Matthews being out with injury for the middle of the season. Now insert a neophyte at Center and this suspect aspect of The Chargers' offense becomes even a greater question. Insert today's opponent in The Ravens, who own a top 5 stop unit against the run in the NFL and this looks to be an edge strongly in favor of the home team.
The strength of the San Diego offense is through the air and this is definitely the weakness in Baltimore, especially since the injury to Jimmy Smith.. but as in any NFL matchup, if you can make a team one dimensional, it typically becomes a huge advantage for the defense. With The Ravens game planning to stop the pass and the already established ability to stop an anemic rushing attack, the Baltimore defense should have success keeping points off of the board today.
If you look at some of the trends, The Ravens are 6-and-1 ATS at home when sandwiched between games on the road - again playing into this team's strength at home. In addition, Phillip Rivers tends to struggle against this division, going just 3-and-10 ATS in his last 13-games versus the AFC North, while Ravens Head Coach, John Harbaugh, is a perfect 5-and-0 SUATS when taking on the AFC West.
Jim Feist
Bulls at Nets
Pick: Over
These are not just the strictly defensive Bulls of years past. These Bulls can score points. Chicago has scored back-to-back 109 point efforts against Denver and Boston. The Bad news is that without that stingy defense they lose games like they did to Denver, 114-109. The Bulls are 10-6 S/U on the season and 6-10 ATS. Meanwhile, the Nets started the season as a very high scoring team with six of their first seven games scoring over 100 points. Since then, the Nets have scored over 100 points just one time in seven games. That might be why the club is 1-6 O/U their last seven. Still, lots to like about the OVER here on Monday. The Nets are 6-2 O/U in their last eight games and 9-3 O/U their last 12 games following a straight up win. And, against the East, they are 7-3 O/U their last 10 games. The Bulls can score this year and the Nets are a good over club at home.
Joe D'Amico
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona remains on top of the NFC West and owns the NFC's best overall record at 9-2. Atlanta, despite a 4-7 mark is tied for the NFC South lead. Drew Stanton got off track last week but didn't have Wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, who is expected to return here. The Cardinals owns the second ranked defense in the League, allowing just 17.7 points per game. The Cards stop-unit will get to pocket-passer, Matt Ryan and create turnovers. Neither team is known for their running game but Atlanta ranks dead- last in the NFL against the pass. Stanton loves to throw the pigskin. The Cardinals are 16-5 ATS their L21 games played vs. teams with a losing record, 16-5 ATS their L21 vs. the NFC, and 20-8 ATS their L28 overall games. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played following an ATS loss, 2-5 ATS their L7 games played in November, and 2-6 ATS their L8 overall games.
Jack Jones
Denver Broncos -1
The Denver Broncos (8-3) were 13-point favorites at home the first time these teams got together this season. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means they should be roughly 7-point road favorites over the Chiefs in the rematch. Instead, they are currently 1-point favorites in Kansas City. That’s why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Broncos as such small favorites in the rematch Sunday night.
Plus, the Broncos are the better team, period. When you compare the numbers, it’s really not even close. The Broncos lead the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by a whopping 100.2 yards per game. They rank 3rd in total offense at 416.3 yards per game, and 6th in total defense at 316.1 yards per game. Despite not having the best record in the NFL, they have put up the best numbers, and I would argue that they are the best team.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been very fortunate to own a 7-4 record this season. They rank just 17th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained on the season. The Chiefs are just 23rd in the NFL in total offense at 326.6 yards per game, and 8th in total defense at 328.3 yards per game. Now, they are without star safety Eric Berry for the rest of the season after he was diagnosed with cancer last week. Berry is just another player on a long list of injuries for this Kansas City defense.
The reason I don’t give the Chiefs much of a chance in this game is because they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Peyton Manning and company. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback with limited weapons, and would need to play a perfect game to give Kansas City a chance. Smith STILL hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. This offense is too predictable as it relies too much on tight ends and running backs in the passing game.
Denver is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Kansas City with all five victories coming by a touchdown or more. That’s another reason why I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown. The Broncos are 26-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City.
Red Dog Sports
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
The Saints just lost at home to Baltimore. They had been solid choices at home with Drew Brees and QB and Sean Peyton as coach but now they go on the road and the Steelers need to keep up with the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North. Big Ben has been solid passing the ball as he had 6 TD passes in two separate games. I think we see Pittsburgh win by 7 or more.
Jimmy Boyd
Buffalo Bills -3
I know Buffalo is at a bit of a disadvantage having one less day to prepare after playing on Monday instead of Sunday, but I think they are showing some great value as a small home favorite. Buffalo is one of the more underrated teams in the NFL and have a bigger homefield advantage than they get credit for, especially late in the year when the weather turns bad. The Bills are 24-11 ATS at home in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992 and
I know the Browns keep winning, but I’m just not sold on this team. Cleveland has taken advantage of a very easy schedule this season. All five of the Browns wins outside their division have come against teams with losing records. They also haven’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. Their 6-24 loss to the Jaguars is evident of that.
One of the big reasons that I like Buffalo in this one is they should have the edge up front on both sides of the ball. The Bills come in 8th in the NFL against the run (98.4 ypg) and lead the league by a wide margin with 46 sacks (next best 38). They are also 5th against the pass (213.8 ypg). That combination of being able to stop the run and get after the quarterback, really puts a lot of pressure on Brian Hoyer. While Hoyer has played well in 2014, he’s been careless with the ball of late. After throwing just 2 interceptions in his first 7 games, he’s thrown 6 in his last 4 games.
On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has been getting pushed around up front all season. The Browns come in ranked 29th against the run (134.9 ypg) and are in the bottom half of the league with just 23 sacks. It’s also worth noting that Cleveland is not at full strength on defense right now. Starting free safety Tashaun Gipson is out indefinitely and star inside linebacker Karlos Dansby is questionable after missing last week’s game against Atlanta.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play backing a fade of the Browns. Road teams off an upset win as an underdog who have a winning record playing an opponent with a winning record are 66-112 ATS since 1983. That's a 63% long-term system in favor of the Bills.
Oliver Alonso
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4
As difficult as it may be to take Tampa Bay in this matchup, I think the Buccaneers are showing some decent value here as a home dog. Their loss to the Bears last week wasn’t as bad as the final score would indicate. Tampa Bay outgained the Bears by 163 yards, but were done in by a -3 turnover margin. Cincinnati is coming off a couple of big wins at New Orleans and Houston, but this is a team that has struggled with consistency all season.
One of the reasons I think this is a lower line than what you might have expected, is the fact that this will be the Bengals 3rd straight road game. Regardless of the opponent, it’s extremely hard for teams to get up three straight weeks on the road. We saw the Broncos stumble in a very similar spot just a couple weeks ago when they lost outright to the Rams 7-22 as a 8-point favorite.
I know the Tampa Bay offense has struggled to put up points, but they are moving the ball at a much better rate over their last 3 games than they had earlier in the year. The Buccaneers are averaging 356.3 ypg over their last 3, which is a huge improvement over their season average of 318.2. A big reason for their uptick has been the emergence of rookie wide out Mike Evans, who has caught 24 passes for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games. The Bengals defense isn’t great. Cincinnati ranks just 18th against the pass (243.5 ypg) and 27th against the run (129.6 ypg).
It’s not just the improvements offensively with Tampa Bay that have caught my eye. The Buccaneers are really playing well defensively. They held Chicago to only 204 total yards last week and are giving up just 302.0 ypg over their last 5. The Bengals offense hasn’t exactly been playing great of late, as they are averaging just 17.3 ppg over their last 3.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Bucs. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, who have won 25% or less of their games against an opponent with a winning record in the second half of the season are 50-20 ATS since 1983. That's a 71% system in favor of the Buccaneers.
Chip Chirimbes
San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: San Diego Chargers +7
The 'numbers' here just don't look good for San Diego as they travel cross country for this AFC match-up in Baltimore. The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games while Baltimore is 5-0 ATS after allowing 250 or more yards passing the previous game. Add that the Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Ravens makes things appear bleak. The Ravens are off a Monday night beating of the Saints but will find San Diego a tougher match. Phillip Rivers and play and with a little help he can win here.
Steve Janus
Indianapolis Colts -9½
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Colts, but I just don't trust this Redskins team on the road, especially off a big road game last week against the 49ers. Washington is a complete mess right now with all the drama surrounding the benching of RGII in favor of Colt McCoy. Indianapolis has had their struggles against the top team, but have more than held their own against the bottom feeders this season. They have beat the Jaguars by 27, Titans by 24, Giants by 16 and Jaguars again by 20. Ever other team they have played this season has won at least 5 games. You also have to factor how well the Colts defensive has played at home against bad teams. While they allowed 30 to Eagles and 42 to the Patriots, their 4 opponents at home have combined to score 33 points. Andrew Luck and Indianapolis's passing attack is going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, which should have the Colts winning here by at least 2 touchdowns and easily covering this 9.5-point spread.
Key Trend - Indianapolis is 22-9 (71%) ATS over the last 3 years after the 1st month of the season.
Brad Diamond
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Arizona Cardinals -1½
The line opened at -1-1/2 Arizona (9-2) it quickly went to -2-1/2, but since has dropped back down to -1-1/2 as we write. The lines makers have given great respect to the home field, yet the home field of 4-7 Atlanta. The Cardinals show off a horrible performance last week against the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in a 19-3 loss. Just remember Arizona was without Fitzgerald. Now ‘Zona must rebound on the road without the experience of QB Palmer taking snaps. So, base logic asserts a big game from QB Stanton is a must. After all, the Cardinals face a losing unit who is under .500 by three games, and really played poorly in a number of games. The key for Arizona is how well their defense plays considering they are #11 in the NFL holding the opposition to 17.7 points per game, and rated #3 stopping the run at 84.5 yards per outing. Atlanta is #26 running with 93 yards per game. We know the Falcons will be throwing (Ryan) on almost every down. Obviously, this is a recipe for disaster. The Falcons lost last Sunday 26-24 to Cleveland as we predicted in these pages. Hard to believe Atlanta is tied for first place in the pedestrian NFC South. QB Ryan increased his QBR with a 27-43 (273) performance. Still, the key here will be ball possession as being on the road I fully expect the Cardinals to run the football more, than not. The Falcons defense has allowed a runner 100+ yards in 21 straight games, and their defense ranks dead last in yards allowed. Techs have the Cardinals on a 5-1 ATS run in November and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road vs. a unit with a losing SU mark at home. Take the Cardinals on Sunday to come up with a much needed win!
River City Sharps
Ravens -6.5
The Chargers travel across country to take on the Ravens. A trip to Baltimore may have appeared to be one of the more winnable games left for San Diego, but the Ravens have won four straight at home while limiting opponents to 7.5 points and 270.0 yards per game of total offense.That's not good for a San Diego offense that's struggled on the road. The Chargers are 2-3 on the road and have been held to averages of 18.2 points and 306.0 yards. Both of these teams are in must win situations as they battle for a playoff spot. With QB Rivers struggling, the 5th ranked rush defense of the Ravens will looks to stop the run and force Rivers to throw it to beat them. The re-energized ground game of the Ravens with Justin Forsett has taken pressure of Flacco and he has played well, QB rating of 92.6 which is significant because the Ravens are 43-7 when he has a rating of 90 or more. We like the home team in this situation.