Joe Gavazzi
Houston Texans -7
At the beginning of the week, this was billed as a match-up of losing teams who were each featuring the face of their future in rookie QB Mettenberger (Tennessee) and 1st year starter QB Mallett (Houston). But an injury to Mallett thrusts QB Fitzpatrick into the starting role of signal caller. Regardless of who is at the controls for either team, the result of this contest will be proof positive that controlling the football overland is of utmost importance when considering pointspread success in the NFL. Remember that teams who outrushed their opponent by 30 or more yards are a long term 75% ATS winner in the NFL. Teams who rush the ball for 30 or more times in an NFL game while their opponent does not are an over 80% winner. Correspondingly, teams who run the ball 22 or fewer times a game if their opponent does not are an over 80% Play Against. Now consider the following facts: for the season, the Titans rush the ball an average of only 22 times/game for 89/4.1. They allow opponents to run the ball 33 times/game on average for 145/4.4. That 56 yard negative differential in the run game is the largest negative difference of any team in the league (here’s a clue, Oakland is 2nd worst at 54 YPG). Thus, the Titans record of 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS should hardly come as a surprise. And the fact that QB Mettenberger has over 608 passing yards and 4 TDs in starts against Pittsburgh and Philly the last 2 weeks means little when you consider the Titans defense gave up 70 points in those 2 games, were outrushed 164-52 last week by Philly and 206-49 two weeks ago by the Steelers. With Houston running the ball an average of 32 times/game for 137/4.3 (3rd most yards in the league), it will be no surprise if, regardless who plays QB for Houston, that they steamroll the Titans at the point of attack, extend their series dominance to 7-1 ATS and repeat the 30-16 victory of October 26th at Tennessee.
DAVE COKIN
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT ATLANTA FALCONS
PLAY: ATLANTA FALCONS +2
The most difficult obstacle for many bettors is the willingness to back an ugly side. That’s one of the differences between pros and joes. The pros don’t care. if they get what they’re looking for regardless of the criteria, they fire and let the chips fall where they may. it doesn’t mean they’re always correct, as any bookmaker can attest to, but the bottom line is that popularity of a play means zero to long term winners.
That’s the preface to my play today on the Falcons. Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way right off the top. The Falcons are not a good football team and they have a coach who apparently cannot tell time. At 4-7, the Falcons are perhaps the worst first place squad I’ve ever seen. And the bet percentages sure indicate that not many wagerers are hesitating to fade them here with the 9-2 Cardinals coming to town.
Okay, so here are a few reasons I’ll be joining the minority opinion. First, I think the Cardinals are a bit of a fraud. Bruce Arians has done an incredible job of finding ways to get what, off the actual data is a very average team, to the winner’s circle week after week. But those numbers are still revealing to me. I see the 2014 Cardinals as the updated version of the 2013 Chiefs.
You might recall KC started the ’13 campaign 9-0, but were never close to being that good. Once they finally lost, the wheels pretty much came off and the Chiefs went 2-5 down the stretch. I kind of look at Arizona the same way. They have managed to to compile a gaudy record, but now they’ve finally had that long winning streak snapped. I’ve been waiting for the Cardinals to finally lose a game, which they now have, and I want to see if if they’re going to now begin to slip off the rails.
Drew Stanton’s presence at QB has to start becoming a liability in my estimation. His road QBR numbers are terrible and without a running game, I think this Arizona offense is going to start struggling. I’ll accept the notion it might not happen here as the Atlanta defense stinks, but I don’t see Stanton taking even the Falcons apart.
The Falcons are serious underachievers. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see them as anything resembling an elite football team. But they’re at least middle of the pack in terms of overall talent, and should not be 4-7. That’s probably the Mike Smith factor, and he’s my biggest worry here. So it’s not like I’m in love with the Falcons, it’s more that I am convinced now is the time to try and beat Arizona.
In terms of my numbers, I’ve got this a tossup. With Palmer on the field, I’d probably have Arizona -2. But I started docking the Cardinals two points when he got injured and off the lack of offense Arizona has displayed the last two games, I believe the power rating penalty is warranted.
I don’t care much about the sharp/square argument. It’s interesting to observe and perhaps track, but I play my own opinions. As it happens, I’ve got one side today that’s probably pretty square. But this is one where I’m oppo the planet for all intents and purposes. I won’t call it a great value play, as I’m not sure it is to much of an extent if at all. But I like the spot in terms of fading the favorite and I’m lining up today on the Falcons plus the available points.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANAPOLIS -9½ over Washington
The Redskins are 3-8 and the only thing they are playing for is their pay cheques. Washington started the season with Robert Griffin III, went to Kirk Cousins, then to Colt McCoy, back to RG3 and now back to McCoy. That’s four QB changes in 11 weeks and all three QB’s are healthy. Some teams don’t change QB’s for five years barring an injury and that’s just another example of how ludicrous this situation in Washington has become. What a sick, twisted world we live in, when we’re compelled to rush to Dan Snyder’s side and shield him from the slings and arrows (so to speak) of this unseemly media posse. Don’t worry Dan. You just keep trying to figure out how to get close to sniffing a championship sometime before Costas decides it might be more realistic to go with a gray toupee. From the head office to the football field, the ‘Skins, once considered to be a model franchise, has sunk to new lows and switching quarterbacks changes nothing, it only make things worse. Of all three QB’s, Colt McCoy might be the most flawed of them all and asking him to step in and do well on Indy’s fast track is just setting him and the rest of the team up for more humiliation.
The Colts have played perhaps the easiest schedule in the league and what they do better than almost anyone is beat up relentlessly on weak opponents. They are like the bully in your Grade 6 class. When a bigger and stronger student comes along and challenges him, the bully runs and hides. That’s the Colts. They defeated Jacksonville twice by scores of 44-17 and 23-3. They defeated Tennessee 41-17 and the Giants 40-24. Now they get another small skinny kid in the Redskins. We also like that Andrew Luck is coming off his worst game of the year, a 253 yard and one TD performance against the Jags. Indy has Cleveland on deck and can pretty much guarantee itself a division championship again with a win here. This is not a look-ahead spot or a letdown spot for the Colts. As for the ‘Skins, we have no idea why they’ll even bother showing up here and we have less idea of what is going to motivate them to play hard. The Colts end the year with three of their final four games on the road so they figure to take care of business in this one and beat up on another skinny kid.
TAMPA BAY +3½ over Cincinnati
This is another one of those “looks too good to be true” games. After getting whacked by the Brownies two weeks ago, the Bengals have responded with back-to-back road wins over Houston and New Orleans. Cincinnati is first in the AFC North with a 7-3-1 record in a division where all teams are over .500 and the other three are all 7-4. The Bengals can’t afford to take a week off and that’s the argument you are going to hear from all those geniuses on television. The Bengals are considered to be one of the better balanced teams in the league. Only three teams in the NFL own a better winning percentage than Cincinnati. Against Atlanta at home three weeks ago, the Bucs were a 3½-point pooch and now the Bengals are that same price? That's called a trap.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are 0-5 at home. Tampa just concluded its lightest three game stretch of the season (Atlanta, Minnesota and Chicago) and came away 1-2 for the effort. The offense is mired with an ineffective rushing attack. The offensive line problems sunk this team long ago and will end up being their #1 concern in the offseason. That said, we can forget all of that. Situational betting is a key factor and this one could not be a worse spot for the Bengals. First, Cinci plays its third consecutive road game here and teams rarely do well in their third game. After this game, the Bengals close out the season with games against Pittsburgh, Denver, Cleveland and Pittsburgh again. Those are four HUGE games on deck that will ultimately define them before the playoffs begins. This one now becomes nothing more than a big inconvenience and the line is screaming at us to stay away from the Bengals. We hear those screams and so we’ll take the points.
San Diego +6½ over BALTIMORE
Sports betting is an outcome-dominated industry. For the most part, you either win or lose and that's all that matters. But what contributes to that outcome can be largely luck or variance and sometimes it’s so easy to forget or ignore things. Case in point is the Chargers. Here’s a team that lost its opener 18-17 to Arizona before reeling off five wins in a row in very impressive fashion. The Chargers whacked the Seahawks, traveled cross country and knocked off the Bills by 12 and then crushed the Giants by 31. The Chargers subsequently were beat three straight weeks by Kansas City, Denver and finally Miami. The Bolts hit rock bottom when they were squashed 37-0 by the Fish. After that game versus the Dolphins, San Diego had its bye week. When they lost three straight, against three very good teams no less, they were without several key players on defense. Since the bye, the Chargers have been much better, holding the Raiders and the Rams to an average of 89 rushing yards a contest. The Chargers benefitted from the return of linebackers Melvin Ingram, Jeremiah Attaochu and Manti Te'o from injuries after the bye week, creating a deeper rotation that keeps the defensive front seven fresh. Wins over Oakland and St. Louis hasn’t done much to increase the Chargers stock but in this league of peaks and valleys, San Diego is starting to peak again and they’re beginning to play like they did earlier in the year. They are also one of the better coached teams in the NFL and we’re suggesting they’ll be ready to make a stretch run.
The Ravens stock shot up after they went into New Orleans last week and never relented in a nice 34-27 victory. We take nothing away from them. However, we also don’t put a lot of weight on one week. The Ravens have had some nice games this year but they’ve also had it very easy at home with their last three home games occurring against the Panthers, Falcons and Titans. Combined, that trio has four road in 18 games. Baltimore’s toughest home opponent came way back in Week 1 when they lost to the Bengals, 23-17. Indeed the Ravens can be very tough in their own barn but this isn’t about that. What seals this deal for us is that the Chargers are on a current 0-6 run against the spread, which is the longest current streak in the NFL. When a team keeps losing against the number, the price on them gets inflated and this is a prime example of that. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
Cleveland +3 over BUFFALO
The Brownies are 7-4 and have just as good a shot of winning the division as any. Cleveland has won four of five and six of their last eight. They have Josh Gordon back and they have a QB in Brian Hoyer that almost always throws for decent yardage and sometimes great yardage. Yeah, the Bills outstanding pass rush figures to put some heat on Hoyer but that’s not what this one is about, as we leave the X’s and O’s to the experts, who break down these games like they’re a heart transplant and rarely get it right. This one is all about playing an overreaction.
We absolutely love to fade teams off a big prime time win because those prime time teams are so exposed that an overreaction is almost pretty much guaranteed. Last Monday, Buffalo played the Jets and annihilated them, 38-3. This is the overreaction. Seriously, how can the Bills be -2½ over the Jets and then a bigger favorite six days later over Cleveland? That game against the Jets was in a controlled weather environment and Buffalo thrived as a small favorite. Thing is, the Jets are a complete dumpster fire with no QB and a 2-9 record that should be 1-10. Prior to beating the Jets, Buffalo had dropped two straight to Kansas City and Miami and scored just 22 points. There is still a shot for a Wild Card with a 6-5 record but road games to Denver and New England alone are going to make it tough to compete, not to mention a home game with the Packers on deck. Put no weight on last week’s 38 points. These Bills are living by their defense. Buffalo’s last three wins came against the Jets twice and Minnesota once. Playing on a short week or any week for that matter, Buffalo cannot be a bigger price over Cleveland than they were against the Jets and it’s for that reason we’re stepping in.
Scott Spreitzer
Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Baltimore snapped back from a 2-game skid to beat the Titans & Saints the last two weeks. SDG comes to town following a couple of home wins, but the Chargers have not fared well on the road. In fact, they have dropped three straight ATS, allowing 28, 35, and 37 points to be scored. The offense got a boost last week with the return of Ryan Mathews, but while he's expected to play today, he did bang his shoulder again last weekend and is not expected to be 100% healthy. Baltimore doesn't need any help, ranked 6th against the run, allowing just 88 yards per game. The Ravens have held their "guests" to 30 points in their last four home games, combined, while the offense has averaged 28.5 ppg. Joe Flacco directs a balanced attack and I expect Baltimore to be able to run right at the Chargers' middle-of-the-pack run defense. SDG has lost six straight ATS, while the Ravens are on a 4-0 ATS run at home. I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday.
Andy Iskoe
Pittsburgh -4
The Saints have a short week following Monday's loss to Baltimore while Pittsburgh returns fresh following its Bye. New Orleans is off 3 straight home games, all losses, and have been poor travelers in recent seasons. Even with the loss to the Ravens New Orleans remains tied with Atlanta for the NFC South lead but with a losing record (5-6). The Steelers are 7-4 and in a tight four team race in the AFC North. New Orleans' Drew Brees is an elite QB but he has not been a clutch performer this season and appears to be bothered by a nagging injury that surfaced during training camp. Also an elite QB is the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger. The situation is more critical for the hosts as New Orleans still controls its own destiny with games against each of their Division rivals in the season's final 4 weeks. The Steelers have won 4 of 5 including 3 in a row at home prior to splitting on the road before the Bye. 2 of the wins were over a pair of teams in Playoff contention, by 17 over the Colts and by 20 over Baltimore. Aside from playing outdoors on slower natural grass, any inclement weather or cold temperatures works against the Saints.
Rob Vinciletti
Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Carolina Panthers +2.5
The Panthers are still alive in the inept NFC South and have rest for this one as they catch Minnesota off a tough 3 point home loss here last week to Green Bay. Road teams that lost by less than 7 with rest are 25-7 ats if the total is less than 44. Carolina won 35-10 here last season and are a solid 6-0 ats as a dog vs an opponent that is .333 or less. The Panthers have covered 7 straight vs non division teams on turf. The Vikings are a lousy 0-6 ats as a favorite off a 1-3 point loss. Road teams from +3 to -3 in the 2nd half that are off a dog loss and spread win have covered 40 of 50 times the last 32 seasons.
Tony George
Minnesota -2.5
Welcome to the winter wonderland of Minnesota, and unwelcome site for any southern based team. Some chilly weather awaits the Panthers today who have not won a game since week 5 and yet at 3-7-1 are still in the hunt for a division title, unreal! The Vikings still reeling for RB Petersen not on the roster and breaking in a rookie QB with an new coaching staff this year. The Vikings have struggled but played well in spots this year, including giving the Packers all they wanted and then some last week in a 3 point loss.
The line jumped from 2 to 2.5 Saturday in favor of the home team in this one. If you look at the stats in the last 3 games, Carolina's numbers are better on both sides of the ball. One concern is Cam Netwton's health, and he has tossed an interception in 7 straight games and 5 picks in his last 2 games, and the Viking secondary has 10 takeaways this season as compared to 6 all last season.
Phil Loadholt at offensive tackle is out for Minny today, rookie RB McKInnon is out today as well, and with the 30th ranked overall offense in the NFL I have concerns about the Vikings ability to put up points today, even laying a short number. All that said I am taking a small position on the home team today as RB Asiata is cleared to play and WR Jennings is back. I think Minny's defense can contain the offense of Carolina and the turnovers go in favor of the Vikings, as well as the battle in the trenches favor Minny here, and they squeak out a win here, and laying under the key number of 3 here is crucial.
Ken Thomson
California -7
A go against Fresno State until they get back their catalyst Cezar Guerrero on December 20th. CAL has a 14 point win over Syracuse on their resume and their only loss was to a Top 10 Texas squad that they led at Halftime. The Bulldogs have lost their last two games by six points & four points but both games were to weak teams in ECU & Marist. Fresno State has some other options with Julien Lewis, Marvelle Harris & Paul Watson scoring in double figures but they have not been on the same page except in their only win which was over Bristol University. Who is that...the ESPN Crew? Meanwhile the Bears are led by Jordan Mathews ( 17 ppg ), Tyrone Wallace ( 16 ppg, 8 RB ), Jabari Bird ( 13 ppg ) and Big man David Kravish ( 12 ppg, 6 RB ). That balance should be plenty for Coach Cuonzo Martin's Berkeley Bunch! CAL 79 Fresno State 67
Golden Retriever
Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Detroit Red Wings
Both sides riding three-game winning streaks, the special team will make the difference. Detroit is 9th in power play and 4th in penalty kill, as they scored 5 PPG in the last 3 outings. On the contrary, Vancouver is 19th with advantage on the ice, and is 0-for-7 on the power play in the last 4 games and 2-for-24 over the last 9 overall. The Goalie Ryan Miller was very impressive in recently back-to-back shutouts. However, the Michigan native has struggled against Detroit with a 2-9-2 career record and 3.37 GAA. They are 19-39 in their last 58 vs. a team with a winning record, as well as 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
USC at New Mexico
Pick: USC
MW sources are adamant that newly-coifed Lobo HC Craig Neal (no more long hair!) has a lot more reloading to do than many figured after UNM disappointed in the recent Charleston Tourney, where it lost 2 of 3. After getting consistent scoring production from the high and low posts the past couple of years, the Lobos now have neither after the departures of key frontliners PF Cam Bairstow and C Alex Kirk. And now Neal's star son Cullen (a sharpshooting soph guard who was scoring team-best 17 ppg) is out until further notice with an ankle injury, forcing a lot of the scoring burden upon Aussie pass-first sr. PG Hugh Greenwood (only 33% from floor and 24% beyond arc), who has looked very uncomfortable in his new scoring role. Andy Enfield's SC remains a work in progress, but the Trojans are making steady progress, as transfer Gs Katin Reinhardt (UNLV) and Darion Clark (Charlotte), along with touted frosh G Jordan McLaughlin (13 ppg), are quickly changing SC's backcourt dynamics.
Jesse Schule
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
When the Lakers host the Raptors on Sunday night, we'll see the top team in the East take on the last place team in the West. The Lakers have lost five straight at home, but each of their last three were in close games decided by six points or less. Kobe and the Lakers could be catching the Raptors at a good time, with Toronto traveling all the way across the country to play it's first game of a three game road trip out West. Toronto will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is out indefinitely with a torn tendon. The 25 year old Los Angeles native was 0-for-8 through 20 minutes in the loss to Dallas, leaving in the 3rd quarter with an apparent groin injury. The news that he will miss an extended period of time, is a big blow for a Toronto team than many feel has been overachieving. They will likely need Terrence Ross and James Jones to step up, but neither player is likely to give them the 20 points per game that DeRozan has the last few seasons. Kobe Bryant is taking a lot of heat for his poor shooting percentage, but he still leads the league in scoring. He has a history of scoring a ton of points against the Raptors, and it was against Toronto on a Sunday night at Staples Center that he scored a career high 81 points. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Lakers, but they were the underdog in all four of those games when covering the spread. The one game that saw them favored, the would lose outright, and that was the last time these teams met in January of last season.
Will Rogers
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -2½
The 9-2 Patriots come in to Green Bay as winners of seven in a row, including a couple of road victories at Buffalo and Indianapolis. Playing the Packers at Lambeau is a whole different ballgame though, and the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, I can't see anybody beating the Packers on their home turf.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Home Cookin' - Green Bay is 5-0 at home this season, while the Pats are just 3-2 on the road, with losses at Kansas City and Miami. The Packers haven't just been winning at home, they have been absolutely demolishing the opposition. They've outscored the opposition 219-85 in their five wins.
2. Injuries - The Patriots could be without a couple key players on offense as Brandon LaFell and Shane Vereen are both listed as questionable.
3. X-Factor - The Patriots are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Ari Atari
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
Go with the Steelers who are 4-1 at home coming off a bye week. Saints haven't looked good all year especially on the road 1-4 and coming off a short week head into cold Pittsburgh. These teams haven't played each other since 2010 and game planning should favor the team coming off the bye. Saints need the win bad but coming off a short week and disappointing loss. Going into the cold against a tough, rested, defense and a raucous, steel curtain crowd and Big Ben who's had time to prepare, spells TROUBLE for the Saints. I'm shocked the line should be around -5.5 or higher but we're getting it -4 right now.Take Pittsburgh.
Doug Upstone
NY Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: NY Giants -2½
Play Against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 like JACKSONVILLE, having lost eight or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. Because this team has shown little capacity to win all season, on short odds their lack of experience in knowing how to win a tight game shows up and clubs like the Jaguars are only 5-26 ATS in this exact situation.
Matt Fargo
San Diego vs. Baltimore
Pick: San Diego
The Ravens and Chargers are both in playoff contention but with the strength of the AFC, one or both could be left out based on how other teams do making this a huge game for both sides. San Diego has struggled after a strong start and while it has won its last two games, they were closer than expected. The Chargers did win the yardage battle in both of those games but going back, they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games and that is setting us up with a higher than expected number. It is no secret that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has dominated against non-division opponents at home, going 28-5 since his arrival but laying a number this big seems to be way too much against a quality opponent. The Ravens are also riding a two-game winning streak following their upset win over New Orleans on Monday night. Baltimore is 4-1 at home which is also affecting this line but the Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. San Diego meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with a winning home record and they fall into a solid contrarian situation. We play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons.