Harry Bondi
Tennessee / Houston Under 43
Not only is this a battle of two back-up QBs who will most likely be out of football within three years, but both defenses have had the opportunity to see plenty of game film on these subpar signal callers, providing a huge edge during preparation. The Titans offense has been dreadful, especially on the road where they have averaged 16.3 points per game and under 300 yards of total offense. Defenses rule the day in Houston.
NFL Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers -5
The Saints really have to be chewing a hole in some peoples bankrolls. I think there is the perception that this is going to be the week that they turn thing around. They had a great chance to do that last week against the Ravens at home on MNF, which didn't happen. Simply put, the Saints aren't a good team at the moment. Jimmy Graham doesn't seem to be giving all he has, Brees looks frustrated, and the defense has regressed after making huge strides last season. They've also suffered injuries at the running back position and has left depth at the position bare. Another think that has happened which is getting overlooked is the loss of Darren Sproles. There were many times in the Saints' offense last year when the play broke down, Brees just flipped the ball off to his safety valve, Sproles, and he would scurry for a first down. That element of the offense is gone, and it has shown on the field. Dynamic rookie receiver Brandin Cooks is also gone for the year on the IR. They are 2nd in total offense yardage wise per game, but aren't finishing drives, averaging 26.2 points per game, same as the Steelers. On the road they've been atrocious yet again this season. They are coming in with a 1-4 record. Their only win came against the Panthers who have had problems of their own. I find it difficult to back the Saints on grass this week, playing in a chilly environment on the east coast against the Steelers who are 4-1 at home. In their last three games at home, the Steelers have averaged 41.3 points. It wasn't against horrible teams either, beating the Texans, Colts, and Ravens. I don't trust the Saints playing in this setting at all Sunday. This is a big game for the Steelers, win and they're at 8-4, lose and they drop to 7-5. I look for Roethlisberger to have a big game. Everyone forgot about the amazing things he's being doing after they lost that trap game to the Jets. He has 24 touchdowns on the season to only 6 interceptions while averaging around 300 yards a game. I will be on the Steelers for 2 units. This game should make people remember how good Big Ben really has been in 2014.
Patriots / Packers Over 58
So, who is going to stop Rob Gronkowski? I asked the same question in a previous write-up. No one on the Colts did stop him in that particular game, and I wonder who will be able to do it for the Packers. The Packers are going to have other issues on their hands as well, most notably the running game. The Pack haven't been able to stop any ground game in 2014, evident in the 137 yards they allow per game, 29th in the NFL. The Patriots' offense line are the unsung heroes of their team this season. The line is getting huge pushes up front, making it easy for really any running back to put up monster stats, Jonas Gray anyone? Gray was benched last week for being late to practice during the week, but plug in LaGarratte Blount and the offense scored 34 on a good Detroit defense. The offense has been ploughing over everything in its path after that Bengals game. Since that game, the Pats are averaging 40 points per game over seven games. They started the season off on a rough note, but Tom Brady has this unit zinging. Overall they are 1st in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.5. They've been doing it with a perfect blend of through the air and ground. The Packer offense hit a road early in the season well, putting up only 7 points on the Lions in a game where Aaron Rodgers arguably played the worst game of his career that week. Since then the Packers have averaged 37.5 points a game over eight games. They are just behind the Patriots, scoring 32.2 points a game. At home the Packers are scoring 44 points a game, which is jaw dropping in its own right. So, we have the 1st and 2nd best NFL offenses at work in this game. This game should be up and down the field throughout. A 34-30 final for either team seems plausible. This is a high total, but I think it gets OVER 58.
Pat Hawkins
Broncos at Chiefs
Play: Chiefs
KC has been off since last Thursdays loss to the Raiders so expect Andy Reid to have his team focused in for this huge match up. KC has been nasty at home against good opponents as they knocked of the Patriots early this season on Monday night. The Broncos have looked out of sync of late losing to the Adams and having to come back to barely beat the Dolfins, KC gets the win here as the Broncos are floundering.
Pat Hawkins
Broncos at Chiefs
Play: Chiefs
KC has been off since last Thursdays loss to the Raiders so expect Andy Reid to have his team focused in for this huge match up. KC has been nasty at home against good opponents as they knocked of the Patriots early this season on Monday night. The Broncos have looked out of sync of late losing to the Adams and having to come back to barely beat the Dolfins, KC gets the win here as the Broncos are floundering.
Bob Balfe
Jaguars +3
I was honestly thinking of just playing this game and this game only today. Sometimes the matchups are not that great on any given Sunday and the lines are set super sharp. Today is one of those days in my opinion. We know the Giants have good young players on that offense especially at receiver, but we also know this team is not going to the playoffs and they have a QB that is not getting any younger. On the flip side we have a QB in Jacksonville that is as young as they come and a team building for the future. There is no doubt in a meaningless game this is more important for Jacksonville. The last thing New York needs is Manning or Beckham to get hurt in Jacksonville and to miss ½ of next year. I really like the Jaguars front four on defense. This team matches up well against the Giants Offensive Line and I believe this unit will be a good one next season. As for the Giants, they are missing ½ of their offensive line today. This is a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass. I know Jacksonville is not a very good team, but this is the NFL and one thing that will make any team lose is injuries. The Giants have dealt with the injury bug all year and I believe the Jags are a better football team in this slot here today.
Triple Threat Sports
Cleveland (+) over Buffalo
Not super impressed with Buffalo's win against the Jets last week, as NY looked uninterested and ill prepared in delivering one of the worst showings of the season. That win, plus Cleveland's perceived struggles vs Atlanta last week, have seen Buffalo become a bigger than expected favorite. Consider also that while Cleveland did sneak out of Atlanta with a win last week, they had a dominant 475-315 yard edge in that game. Also, Cleveland is 2-0 ATS this season as away underdogs of this price for Mike Pettine, and speaking of the Cleveland coach, he was Buffalo's defensive coordinator last year, so he knows the personnel very well. Finally, while teams have not done well this year after beating an NFC South team (10-17 ATS) cannot ignore that the Bills are 1-4 SU this season against teams with winning records. Have to go with the road team in this one. We have two plays available today on the Picks for Sale portion of the site. One of them is our TOP PLAY OF THE DAY and we think that will be a solid winner, while the other takes advantage of a team with two tremendous systems (19-4/10-0 and 15-4) in effect!
Prophet Plays
Patriots / Packers Over
The Patriots are firing on all cylinders right now, averaging 39.5 points per game since their last lost 8 weeks ago at Kansas City. New England has played Overs in 7 of their last 8 games, and 8 of their 11 games overall for the year. The Packers did hold Under last week in their game at Minnesota, but all 5 of their home games this season have played Over the total, as have 9 of their 11 games for the year. Going to be a cold day in Green Bay, but unless an unforeseen blizzard hits Lambeau, I think it is best not to ignore the convincing Over trends I have just listed.
Line Catchers
Arizona Cardinals - 2
We cashed our 3* NFL GOM last week with the Seahawks against this Arizona team and I like the Cardinals to bounce back this week in a big way on Sunday when they travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons.
At 9-2, Arizona remains on top of the NFC West and owns the NFC's best overall record. Atlanta, despite a 4-7 mark is tied for the NFC South lead. Drew Stanton got off track last week as I predicted as he came up against the very talented Seattle defense. The Cardinals QB should have more success in facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL giving up 284 yards through the air per game as well as 32nd in the NFL having given up just under 410 total yards per game through 12 weeks.
The Cardinals own the second ranked defense in the League, allowing just 17.7 points per contest. I fully expect this Cards front seven to get pressure on the Falcons’ inconsistent offensive line and put Matt Ryan under pressure which will and create turnovers.
The Falcons are unbeaten in NFC South play at 4-0, but dropped to 0-7 outside of the division following a last-second loss to the Browns, 26-24 as three-point favourites. The Cardinals are 16-5 ATS their L21 games played against teams with a losing record. And I like the road team in this match up to come away with the victory.
EZWINNERS
Baltimore Ravens -6.5
The Chargers got off to a great start this year, but that really should have been expected as San Diego's last five wins are against teams that are a combined 8-35 this season. Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers is not right. San Diego insists that Rivers is healthy, but he is playing like a quarterback that is dealing with an injury (most likely ribs). Baltimore is playing very well, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they are allowing just 88 rushing yards per game. This is another early start for a west coast team and the last time the Chargers were in this spot they suffered their worst loss of the season at Miami a few weeks ago. Lay the points.
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
This is another one of those games where I can't find anyone who is backing the Falcons. I also can't give you a lot of good football reasons as to why Atlanta should be the play. The Falcons rank dead last in the NFL in total defense. They also have a hard time protecting Matt Ryan who will be going up against one of the best defense's in the NFL. This is mostly a gut feeling play based on what appears to be a gift line from Vegas if your a Cardinals backer this week. As crazy as it sounds, at 4-7 the Atlanta Falcons can still win their division and this would be a huge win towards that cause. If the Raiders can win so can the Falcons, take the points.
Denver Broncos PICK
This is one of the games where I would normally look to back the Chiefs, but at this line I think Peyton Manning and company get it done. Kansas City is coming off of a stunning loss to the previously winless Oakland Raiders and normally I would find a lot of value backing them this week. However the Broncos have not been steam rolling the opponents like they did last season so there is no value what so ever in backing the Chiefs. Kansas City has a strong defense, but I expect Peyton Manning to do enough for Denver to pick up the win. The Broncos defense will get a bit of a break this week by facing a team that has no wide receiver threat to speak of. Play on Denver.
Brady Kannon
New England +3
Very few +3.5's available out there currently but I think you can find one if you are patient and keep your eyes on it.
As the way the NFL season sits today, you would have to say that this is The SuperBowl. After both teams stumbled a bit out of the gate, they have both been on extremely impressive runs, often times blowing out the opposition with high powered offenses.. but what has gone a bit unnoticed is that fact that The Packers rush defense ranks near dead last in the league while New England has allowed just over 150-yards on the ground in its last 3-games, and that's against The Lions, Colts, and Broncos.. all likely playoff teams. Along these lines, let's also look at who The Packers have been getting healthy against.. The Vikings twice, The Bears twice, The Panthers.. they lost to The Saints and barely beat The Dolphins. New England, ever since getting hammered by The Chiefs, has beaten up on Cincinnati, The Bills, The Broncos, Colts, and Lions.
I do rate these teams as equal but I will give the defensive edge to The Patriots as evidenced by the fact that The Packers have given up more yardage this season, then they have gained..and also the resume nod goes to New England as they have been ascending to the top spot in the league against much stiffer competition.
In terms of one another facing each other's division.. The Patriots are 9-and-2 ATS against The NFC North, including 6-and-0 ATS on the road. Green Bay, meanwhile is 6-and-14 ATS when hosting teams from The AFC East. New England is also a perfect 4-and-0 SUATS as underdogs this season.
.. and finally, The Brady & Belichick rules. Tom Terrific is 33-15-and-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and a perfect 4-and-0 SUATS when The Patriots record is .800 or better.
I am looking forward to a great watch but I can't do anything but take the points here in what I see in both my numbers and the situation as a game that New England should win outright.
Nelly
Tampa Bay + over Cincinnati
Tampa Bay soundly out-gained Chicago last week but the Buccaneers handed the Bears a pair of easy touchdowns after turnovers. It has been a tough season for Tampa Bay but this is a team to look out for as a spoiler down the stretch with the emergence of rookie Mike Evans and a defense that has been sharp since a Week 7 bye week, allowing just 19 points per game. Cincinnati may still be fool's gold now facing a third straight road game off back-to-back wins over losing teams. The Bengals also have a critical division game with Pittsburgh lined up this week for a potential flat spot.
Hollywood Sports
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts (7-4) proved themselves once again very reliable as big favorites against the lesser teams in the NFL with their 23-3 over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 13-point favorite. Indianapolis has now covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Washington (3-8) is just 1-5 on the road this year. They come off a 17-13 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 9-point underdog -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Take Indy minus the points.
Ari Atari
Memphis Grizzlies -2
Only the Celtics have scored exactly 100 on Memphis in their last 7 games. Every other team has been held to double digits. The under is 4-1 the last 5 matchups between the Kings and Grizzlies or 4 unders in a row until their last game on November 13th when the Grizzlies escaped with a 111-110 win.
Don't expect Sacramento to score at will this afternoon with a few key players coming off illnesses or injuries. Darren Collison will play through a quad injury, Rudy Gay will play through Achilles discomfort, Ramon Sessions through knee pain and Demarcus Cousins coming off the stomach bug that has hit more than a few NBA players this past week. These are the key players for Sacramento and its a bad spot to get up for the most physically dominant team in the NBA as well as the top team in the league at the moment.
Memphis is healthy and hungry.Sacramento needs to be put back in their spot around the mid to low level teams in the West. They've turned heads but the Grizzlies will punish them and make them prove if they can live up to the hype.
The line is too short based on the Grizzlies road trip but Memphis gets an extra day of rest before they play again on the 3rd. The Kings have to get up for the the next best team in the league when they play again on the 2nd. The Grizzlies win by doing what works. Tough defense, limit opportunities, frustrate opponents and slow down the game.
The Real Animal
Raiders / Rams Under 42.5
How do Oakland and St. Louis get to 43? Two weeks ago the Raiders spotted the Chargers seven points in the first minute in San Diego. They allowed six points the rest of the game. The Raiders have scored 17 points or less in four of their last six. St. Louis held Denver to seven points in their last home game. The Rams have scored 17 or less in four of their last seven. The ‘UNDER’ is 4-1 the past five meetings in this series. Oakland is averaging 13.3 points per game on the road this year. The Raiders won’t quit. They have covered three of their last four and coming off their first win they should give a spirited effort defensively. Plus it’s not like the Rams customarily blow many teams out. This should be a struggle to reach the end zone for both teams.
Dave Price
Jacksonville Jaguars +3
The Giants hosted the Cowboys last Sunday night. They left it all on the field but had their hearts ripped out with a Tony Romo touchdown pass to Dez Bryant with a minute remaining. The Giants have now lost six in a row, and I think it will be very tough for them to recover from their latest defeat. New York's defense has been a big problem. It ranks 31st in total defense and has allowed 31 points or more in four of its last five games. This is significant because the G-Men are 1-9 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game. Unbelievably, they have lost by an average score of 31.5 to 13.7 in this spot. This is Jacksonville's first home game in over a month so it will be jacked up to play in front of its fans. The Giants are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this season and even 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a losing home record.