Michael Alexander
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans
his will be the third home game for the Titans, following an outright loss but they are 2-0 SU & ATS, upsetting the Lions & the Steelers. They couldn't make it 3 straight wins but loss in overtime last week.
Tennessee RB Johnson has 294 rushing yard the last 2 weeks while QB Hasselbeck hitting 64% of his passes for the season.
Chicago off a win at the final whistle hosting Carolina. But they had a 416-210 yard deficit while Cutler was sacked 6 more times.
The Titans are 5-0 ATS as November home underdogs versus .500+ opponents, while Chicago HC Smith is 1-10 ATS off a non-division game versus an opponent off being upset.
Don Best Consensus
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Detroit Lions
It's very easy for teams in the NFL to play down to their competition...as Green Bay did last weeks vs. the Jags. Detroit can not afford to let the Jags stay in this game. They must win and we feel the number is a bit short...Stafford finally get this Lions offense moving today vs. Jacksonville. The Jags pass defense can be had and their offense can't match the potential point production of the Lions. Play on Detroit. Check out today's picks from The Don Best Consensus...now 12-4 in our last 16 selections...Take a ride with the "Consensus"
Dave Cokin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Raiders have managed to win a couple in a row, but defeating Jacksonville in OT and getting past an horrendous KC squad doesn't indicate power. Tampa Bay is the better team and while I generally avoid public dogs like the proverbial plague, I have to lean Bucs today.
Greg Daraban
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins
Hard to believe line is so low. Carolina has one win and at a 3 point spread they are asking Cam and Crew to win outright. Panthers also playing second week on the road RG III will have team ready to go.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Seattle/ Minnesota Under 38.5: (Added) Both of these teams have had just 2 bad defensive games on the year and this one will not be a third. Minnesota allowed 36 points last week to Tampa Bay and 38 points 2 weeks earlier to Washington But stil they come in having allowed just 20.9 ppg on the year. They may allow 24.7 ppg at home, but just 326.7 ypg. They will take on an unimaginative and conservative Seattle offense that averages just 303 ypg and 17.5 ppg on the year. Seattle comes in 31st in passing (191.8 ypg) and 8th in rushing (131.9 ypg), so you can expect more of a running attack from them, which will eat clock. The Seattle defense has been very tough this year ranking 5th overall (312 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (16.8 ppg). Seattle is 5th in the league vs the run (84.9 ypg) and that is Minnesota's main method of offense as they rank 7th in rushing, compared to 27th in passing. This game will feature a ton of rushing and plenty of defense in a game where we don't see more than 31 points scored.
4 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore -4 over CLEVELAND: The First time these teams met the Ravens had come off a big revenge game with new England and had just 3 days to prepare for Cleveland and their rookie QB. Baltimore won the game but it was by just 7 points as they didn't really show much urgency in the game. This week they take on Cleveland off a bye week (9-1 ATS with rest) and will be ready for a big outing, especially since they were humiliated in their last game before the bye in losing by 30 points to Houston. The Ravens do have injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but Terrell Suggs is back and has had the bye week to prepare for this game. He and his mates should harass this rookie QB into making some costly mistakes. The Cleveland offense is weak at number 29 overall and they are 19th in passing, with Weedon having just a 70.8 passer rating. He will struggle once again in this one. The Cleveland defense has not been hat solid ranking 26th overall, while allowing 23.2 ppg (19th). Last week they did hold SD to just 2 FG's but the weather had allot to do with that as well. The Cleveland defense is 25th vs the pass and will be taking on a Ravens no-huddle attack that ranks 13th in passing, putting up 251 ypg. Cleveland also hasn't had their week off yet so they may be a bit tired at this point in the season and facing a no-huddle attack is not the best thing for them to be facing here. Baltimore has taken the last 9 in the series, winning all 9 by at least 6 points and I expect them to go a little further in this one as I look for them to take it by 2 TD's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Carolina/ Washington Over 48: This game should be an old fashion shootout. Here we have two of the better mobile and exciting QB's in the league, going up against a couple a couple of defenses that have been struggling and have been hit hard by injuries this year. The Washington defense has been horrible all year as they have allowed 406.4 ypg and 28.4 ppg. The Skins are dead last in the league vs the pass and that should allow Cam Newton to have one of his better games of the year. The Panthers average 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is 5th in the league, while the Skins allow 7.6 ypa (26th) so you can bet that they will get some big plays down field. On the other side of the ball the Carolina defense is middle of the pack, but this Washington offense is very good and can score points in bunches. Washington is 6th in total offense (387.4 ypg) and 2nd in rushing (167.6 ypg) and that running game will only set up some big plays for RG3 to make down field. Washington is 20th in the league in passing, but they are 4th in ypa (7.5 and will be facing a Carolina defense that allows 6.8 ypa (20th), so Washington should also get some big plays in the passing game in this one. This one should be fun as these teams combine for around 55 points.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
HOUSTON -10 over Buffalo: This Texans team had a very nice 30 point blowout over Baltimore right before their bye week and now they have had a week to prepare for Buffalo. The Bills are off a tough loss at home to Tennessee and for the most part they have done very well vs the mediocre teams in the league, but in their two games vs the elite teams (San Fran and New England) they were outscored by a combined 66 points. Well Houston is one of the elite team in the league. Houston is 3-1 at home this year and in their 3 wins they won by at least 20 points in each win. The Buffalo offense has been pretty weak on the road averaging 311 ypg and 18.5 ppg, while Houston averages 343.8 ypg and 33.8 ppg at home. Defensively the Texans have an even a bigger edge as they have allowed 283 ypg overall, compared to the Bills allowing 424.1 ypg. On the road the Bills allow 30.8 ppg, while the Texas allow just 19.8 ppg at home. Both teams are rested for this one, but Houston has many more edges on both sides of the ball, they are at home and will take this one by at least 2 TD's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on a non divisional favorite off a bye week if they scored 35 or more points before their bye week. This play is 16-1 ATS since 1997.
Pittsburgh +3 over NY GIANTS: Despite all their defensive injuries the Pittsburgh defense is has still been playing solid ball, ranking 2nd in total defense and 1st against the pass. Defense is where the Steelers have a big edge as the Giants come in ranked 24th in total defense and 26th vs the pass and that should give Big Ben plenty of opportunities to move the ball down field. The Steeler offense has struggled to run the ball, but that is turning around for them, which will only open more holes down field for their 7th ranked passing offense to take advantage of the weak Giants pass defense. The Giants offense has been very good this year and it rates pretty equal to that of Pittsburgh, but the defensive edge that Pittsburgh has will be the difference in this one. Look for Pitt to get the outright upset.
Charlie Scott
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The TB Bucs coached under Schiano is everything the Raiders aren't. Schiano has established Bill Parcells Football theory where Teams run the ball on offense & Stop the run on defense and don't beat Yourself with stupid Turnovers and penalties. TB is rested as they last played on Thursday Night and are the better team.
RICH SPORT'S
Buffalo + 10
Play Buffalo plus the points versus Houston. I see this as a great spot to take the big dog in the NFL as Houston is still riding their high of beating up on the Ravens and have the Bears on deck, no way can they be emotionally into a game against the Bills. The Bills have enough offensive power to be able to hang with the Texans as they are scoring 24.5 PPG, the leagues 12th ranked offense.
Stump The Spread
Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Cowboys continue to be an accident waiting to happen and it must be getting frustrating to their fan base and owner. After turning the ball over 6 times against the Giants last week the Cowboys were still in position to win in dramatic fashion but Dez Bryant's pinky cost them the game. This has pretty much been the story for this team since their opening game win and now they have to go on the road and play the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons. Their loss against the Giants dropped the Cowboys to 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Atlanta has been discredited by most of the media as being undefeated as a result of a weak schedule. This has to get the Falcons fired up and they will look to prove themselves in this game on national television. Atlanta is 5th in the league in overall scoring and this offense is almost impossible to slow down. Matty Ice has been putting up huge numbers and it helps that he has guys like White, Jones, and Gonzalez to throw to. Also Michael Turner has returned to prominence this year and that has been a big contributor to the Falcons success. I like Atlanta to cover this spread at home. Pick: Falcons -3.5
Harry Bondi
Chicago / Tennessee Under 43.5
Expect a low-scoring game here as the Bears defense is a bad match-up for the Tennessee offense. The Bears ranks 2nd in the NFL in points per game and 7th in yards per game, but more importantly they have 23 sacks -- 3rd best in the league -- and that doesn't bode well for a struggling Tennessee offensive line and its lead-footed QB Matt Hasselbeck. The Chicago offensive game plan, meanwhile, will be to simply feed its two-headed RB duo of Forte and Bush against the porous Titan run defense, keep the clock running and escape with a road win. Go under.
Steve Merril
Timberwolves at Raptors
Play: Over 188
Minnesota scored 92 points in their season opening win over Sacramento on Friday night. However, the Timberwolves shot the ball terribly as they hit just 36.8% (32-87) from the field and an ugly 11.8% (2-17) from three-point land. Minnesota played aggressive and attacked the rim as they went to the free throw line 36 times. That attacking style will work again as Toronto allowed Brooklyn to get to the free throw line 37 times last night. The Nets scored 107 points on the Raptors defense so Minnesota should have similar success in this game.
Toronto is a fast-paced team this season. The Raptors have put-up 173 shots in their two games and 35 shots from three-point land. Like Minnesota, they are an attacking team that has attempted 44 free throws so far this season. Toronto’s defense was run off the court last night so they’ll struggle in this back-to-back set. We expect both teams to run which will lead to a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Raptors on Sunday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +148 over N.Y. KNICKS
There’s a big difference from playing a season-opening, Friday night, home game against the world champs, in the featured game of the night no less, to playing a Sunday morning game against the 76ers. The Knicks were certainly ready for that opener and after whacking the Heat, they are garnering much attention here from bettors. They played a great game but an inevitable regression isn’t far behind because this team is likely to have more sizzle than steak. New York doesn't have much depth, it's counting on older players and at least three key players are out.
The 76ers are coming off an ugly nine-point win in their season opener over the Nuggets. Ugly because the offense was completely out of sync but holding the Nuggets to 75 points should not be ignored, as that’s unlikely to happen to Denver again for the rest of the season. If the D plays anything like they did on Friday and the offense picks it up even slightly, the 76ers will be tough to beat here. What we know for sure is that the Knicks are overvalued because of one hyped season opening win. 76ers outright.
Detroit +7½ -102 over L.A. LAKERS
The Pistons are 0-2 but against the number, they’re 1-1. They’ve played two high tempo offenses in Houston and Phoenix and thus, playing these Lakers should appear in slow motion for them. The Pistons are really undervalued because of some poor records over the last few years and a winless start this year but this season’s edition will not be pushovers. Greg Munroe, Rodney Stucky and Brandon Knight have all been very average in the teams’ first two games. That trio is so much more capable and there’s nothing like a game in L.A. to wake somebody up.
It’s really early and there’s no need to panic but an 0-3 start and not coming close to winning is a sign of some serious problems. The Lakers margins of defeat thus far have been 8, 10 and 10 respectively, which isn’t awful on the surface but they were down by as much as 16 in each game and were never a threat to win the game. In all three losses, the Lakers had no rally in them whatsoever. Perhaps it’s a sign of things to come. Perhaps lining your team with aging vets after an unforgiving and grueling strike shortened season wasn’t a good idea. The Lakers bench is awful, the vets have no life in their legs and until they show us something different, we’ll gladly take significant points against them.
Andre Gomes
Cardinals / Packers Under 43.5
This is a similar spot to the one last week where I took the Under in the game between Green Bay and Jacksonville. Aaron Rodgers will face one of the best pass defenses in the league, while not having his two best wide receivers in Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson on the field. This will certainly cause him problems against a Cardinals' pass defense that is #4 in completions% allowed, #12 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #6 in QB rating allowed. Things will only get worse for him, as Arizona leads the league in sacks with 26 sacks (tied with Green Bay) and the Packers' offensive line keeps struggling, having allowed 28 sacks on their first eight games of the season! Therefore, I expect Aaron Rodgers to have some problems today against a good defense that will put a lot of pressure on him as well. The Packers lack a good running game to give any kind of support to their passing game, so I believe Green Bay will indeed struggle a bit on offense today.
But if the Packers will struggle a bit on offense, the Cardinals will struggle a lot on offense! John Skelton is having a quite poor season, however that's not entirely his fault. It's hard for a quarterback to have a good season when the offensive line has allowed 39 sacks on their first eight games of the season! Green Bay leads the league in sacks and they will be all over John Skelton today, who will spend the whole game running away from the Packers' defense. Considering the fact that Arizona has lost their main two running backs due to injury and they are currently the worst team in the league in rushing yards per carry, I believe the Cardinals will struggle to have any kind of decent production today in either the passing game or the running game. They're getting shutdown today, just like they were last week against San Francisco.
Therefore, I expect a game where both defenses will cause a lot of problems to the offenses. Both teams have an excellent pass rush and a quite poor offensive line, therefore I expect both quarterbacks to have tough days today. With both teams also lacking a productive running game, I expect this game to be a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is at 26-13-1, a 67 percent winning clip, and I look to improve on that number with the Detroit Lions laying points to the Jacksonville Jaguars today in Northeast Florida. As I deliver this freebie at 6 a.m. eastern, I see the consensus line on the Lions is -5.5 points.
I know both of these teams are in the cellars of their respective divisions, and both have experienced rather disappointing seasons, but the fact remains the Lions are a better team than their record would indicate. Detroit (3-4) is in after compiling 415 yards against a rather decent Seattle defense, as the Lions won 28-24 behind a gutsy performance by quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Stafford completed 34 of 49 passes for 352 yards, with three touchdowns, an interception and a rushing score in the victory. And beyond what we already knew - the Georgia-graduate is pretty damn good - we saw improvement with the offensive line, as the Lions allowed no sacks, had just one turnover and turned all three red-zone trips into touchdowns.
Now they take on a Jags team that has the worst offense in the league and the 25th-ranked defense. I don't care this one is in Jacksonville, the Jags don't have enough personnel to keep up with the Lions. Stafford has thrown for 1,843 yards, with 17 touchdowns and one interception, in his last six games against AFC teams.
Jacksonville has failed to cover in five of its last seven at home, while the Lions are in on a three-game ATS winning streak. My money is on the road chalk in this one.
3♦ DETROIT
Chuck O'Brien
My long-term free-pick run is now 125-93-3, and I'm looking to win my third straight NFL freebie in as many Sundays when I play the Chicago Bears minus a field goal against the Tennessee Titans. I notice the consensus line is 3.5 across the board, so I'm going to insist you buy the half point off this line and lay only a field goal with grizzlies, in case we run up against a tight game.
Personally, I don't think that'll be the case, as we're talking about a stringent Bears defense that I don't believe Tennessee can penetrate. Chicago's stop unit is ranked 7th overall in the league, while the its rushing defense is numero uno. That could spell trouble for the Titans, who will be reduced down to being a one-dimensional team today, and that's never good against a physical team.
First, think about this: if the Bears are shutting down the lanes and dominating in the trenches, they're forcing Tennessee to use its air game. Now, in that mode, I want you to picure how many times you've seen a member of the Bears' stop unit returning a pick-six this season.
Doesn't it seem like every time you look up, there's a defensive highlight with this team? The Bears have six interceptions returned for touchdowns, the most of any team in NFL history through seven games. Bears cornerback Tim Jennings has snatched seven passes in his past eight games and returned his first interception for a touchdown, last week against the Carolina Panthers.
And I know quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's history under center against Chicago, having thrown for 837 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three starts against the Bears. And I also see he has thrown two touchdowns and no interceptions with a 101.6 passer rating in his past two games.
All that'll change today, as he's going to have Julius Peppers breathing down his neck, and a swarm of talented secondary specialists just waiting for him to make a mistake.
This is an overall bad situation for the Titans, so I'm going to lay the points and ask you to buy the half point off of 3.5 - after all, it's the sharp thing to do with this line.
2♦ CHICAGO
Craig Davis
Gave you a free play winner on Oregon State on Saturday.
Now on a 7-3 run with my free plays.
Sunday's free play is the Dallas Cowboys plus the points at Atlanta.
On paper, this game looks like an Atlanta blowout.
So why is the line only 3 1/2 or 4? Doesn't that seem like a crazy line when Dallas has proven to be such a bad football team?
Well, it reminds me of a few years ago when the Cowboys played the undefeated Saints on a Saturday night and they were seven-point underdogs. They won outright when no one gave them a chance.
I'm not saying the Cowboys will win this game outright, but there's something about this line that says Falcons by a field goal.
Dallas is having offensive troubles, and occasionally their defense looks like crap too, and the team is just in disarray most of the time anyhow. There's just too much confusion with this team... and I believe it's a simple matter of Jason Garrett being in over his head.
Dallas has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but they just don't know how to win the big games.
I do know this... Atlanta isn't blowing teams out like they did at the beginning of the year and Dallas will somehow find a way to sneak in the backdoor.
Take the Cowboys plus the points as your free play of the day.
3♦ DALLAS