Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 6

Carlo Campanella

Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Atlanta Falcons -7

The NFL season has hit the halfway point and the Colts (0-8) are still winless with QB Manning on the sideline. They'll host a 4-3 Falcons squad that won't let down against the Colts as they need a victory to stay in the Playoff race behind New Orleans and Tampa Bay in the NFC South division. Atlanta is finally playing better football, winning 3 of their last 4 games, with their only loss coming against the unbeaten Packers. Atlanta QB Ryan is 7-4 ATS as a road Favorite and should have no trouble finding open receivers against this Colt's defense that's allowing 31.5 points per game and have allowed at least 23 points in every game this season!

WUNDERDOG

Game: Atlanta at Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis +7.5

There are now just a pair of teams left that have failed to win a game on the season, and leading the way are the 0-8 Colts. After losing 62-7 a couple of weeks ago, this is the ugliest of the teams this season, especially for the sportsbooks. Despite hanging big numbers on them, Indy continues to lose by a ton each week (they are 2-6 ATS). As a result, you can expect the numbers to remain inflated. The Colts have a chance here because they are facing a team in Atlanta that has surrendered over 5 yards per carry in their last two games. If Indianapolis can get something going on the ground, Curtis Painter has a chance to have an adequate game. If the Colts are in it, Mathis and Freeney become viable on defense. Atlanta is in a good letdown situation here. They are off an emotional upset win over a very good Detroit team and they have New Orleans on deck. The Falcons can't be too excited for this one. Atlanta also plays measurably worse on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS on the season. I'm not going to sit here and try to make the Colts look good, they are not. What I can do is take a snapshot of history that shows teams like Indy are completely undervalued because no one wants them. Winless teams from Week 9 on in the NFL are a 74% bet ATS and it doesn't get any better than that! So, we'll swallow hard and back the Colts this week.

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

And then there were two – winless teams, that is, as we enter the halfway pole of the 2011 NFL race. That’s a good thing from a handicapper’s perspective, considering that NFL maidens are a long-term 40-24-2 ATS winning proposition from Game Nine out over the last 30 years. While it’s not good enough to qualify for a Breeders Cup race, it pays the feed bill, if you will. If there was a ray of hope in the Colts’ loss at Tennessee last week, it was the fact that Indy managed to outgain its first opponent this season. Call it the tip of the iceberg, if you will, but one tends to find solace wherever they can. Relief also comes in knowing the Falcons are a dreadful 0-4 ATS under head coach Mike Smith in games off back-to-back SU wins when the last came SU as a dog. That ties in nicely to the Dirty Birds’ 1-8 ATS mark as favorites of 6 or more points off a SU dog win when taking on an opponent off a double-digit loss. The Colts are in the gate this week and look to hit the board. We recommend a 1-unit play on Indianapolis.

Tony George

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -8.5

The Giants get exposed this weekend. Never mind the fact, even with a bad defense, especially against the pass, New England is the better team, and they are at home. The Giants have beat just 1 team with a winning record and are without RB Bradshaw and all world WR Nicks this weekend on the road! Last time I checked, they were the biggest playmakers on the team. The Pats none to happy about the beat down they suffered last week at Pitt, and although the Giants pass rush formatible, Brady gets rid of it so quick that it neutralizes the best part of the Giants defense.

The Giants are under the radar screen in terms of public perception, which I mean to say they are over perceived, as their opponents record of the teams they have beat is a combined 15-34. Pats better, and no doubt they have seen at some point some highlights of the Super Bowl where the Giants beat them, and a small amount of revenge here is possible. If Pats get rolling, trust me, they will not let off the throttle. Pats at home, off a loss, facing the team that waxed them in the Super Bowl and getting a chance to play them for the first time? Forget about it!!

Stephen Nover

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Miami Dolphins +4

Indianapolis and Miami are the halfway leaders in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. There's a big difference, though, between the two winless teams.

The Colts are showing signs of quitting having been outscored, 116-34, in their last three games. The Dolphins, on the other hand, continue to play hard for embattled coach Tony Sparano.

Miami let a 15-point lead with three minutes remaining slip against Denver two weeks ago and blew a seven-point fourth-quarter lead to the Giants last week. The Dolphins have enough talent to win games. Their problem is closing teams out.

The Dolphins, however, don't need to close out Kansas City. They just need to hang close, which they should be able to do.

Perhaps the Chiefs were written off too early after dropping their first two games to Buffalo and Detroit by a combined margin of 89-10. But their four-game win streak isn't as impressive as it may seem.

During this span, the Chiefs took advantage of a hapless Donovan McNabb Vikings team, beat the Curtis Painter-led Colts, shut out a punchless Oakland squad that started Kyle Boller and then put in a rusty and not-ready Carson Palmer and then were out-played and lucky to beat a bungling, penalty-screwed Chargers team this past Monday in overtime.

Defeating San Diego was huge for Kansas City. Now, though, the Chiefs have a short turnaround to get ready for this matchup. It's a letdown spot for the Chiefs, who aren't used to dramatic prime time victories. The Chiefs aren't nearly good enough to cover more than a field goal if they aren't playing well.

Let us not forget the Chiefs are without their best running back, Jamaal Charles, best defensive back, safety Eric Berry, and tight end Tony Moeaki. Matt Cassel isn't that much better than Matt Moore.

I don't like Moore. I'm not a fan of Reggie Bush either even though the cheating, NFL underachiever finally produced a 100-yard rushing game last week. The Dolphins have failed to score more than 17 points during their last six games. Their defense is respectable, though, when not matched against an elite offense.

Strangely, the Dolphins also play far better on the road than at home. Maybe they feel less pressure away from South Florida, but the Dolphins are 9-4-1 ATS during their past 14 road contests. The Dolphins very well could be 2-2 on the road this season having lost at the Giants and at Cleveland after leading the Browns by six with less than one minute left.

The Dolphins are close to that first victory. The Chiefs are due for a fall. This game figures to be very close. I'll take the points.

Steve Janus

San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3½

The 49ers have been one the big surprises this season, but it doesn't seem like the oddsmakers are quite ready to start giving this team the credit they deserve. In the meantime the 49ers just keep covering. They are 6-0-1 in their seven games this season, and I really like there chances of adding another win against the Redskins.

The Redskins come in having lost three straight overall, and a big reason for their struggles has been their inability to run the football. They managed just 26 yards in a 23-0 loss against Buffalo last week and are averaging just over 53 rushing yards a game during their losing streak. The 49ers come in leading the NFL in run defense, allowing just 73.4 yards per game.

This is going to force Washington to throw the ball, which usually leads to turnovers and quick possessions. Making it even harder for Washington will be the fact that they are playing this game without leading wide out Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley.

The 49ers offense is built to run the football behind star running back Frank Gore. They come in averaging 137.6 ypg and should have no trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that is allowing just over 120 ypg on the ground. The 49ers might not put up a huge number on the scoreboard, but should easily be able to cover this small spread.

San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. BET THE 49ers!

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

HOUSTON -10.5 over Cleveland: Tough spot for cleveland here as they have to travel for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks and take on a Houston team that is dominating on both sides of the ball this year. Houston is the on'y team in the NFL that is in the top 10 in total offense, rush offense pass offense, total defense, rush defense and pass defense and they also have one of the top special teams units as well. Cleveland does have the 5th overall ranked defense, allowing just 299 ypg and they are 2nd vs the pass, allowing just 172 ypg) but they have really only play vs one good QB (Hasselbeck) and they allowed 31 points and 220 yards pasing in that one. This will be by far the best offense they have faced all year, as the Texans come in ranked 7th overall (395 ypg) and 11th in passing (253 ypg), plus 8th in scoring (25.8 ppg). The key for them here will be a stromng running game (4th, 142 ypg), going up againast a weak Cleveland run defense that has allowed 127.3 ypg ( 26th) overall and 144.7 ypg on the road. That Houston running game will really help open some lanes for Schaub and that will make them all the harder to stop here. On the other side of the ball we find a Cleveland offense that is a mess. They will be again with out Hillis and Hardesty and McCoy just doesn't have enough other weapons to make up for their loss. Cleveland has no ground attack right now and teams have been able to tee off on MCoy and pressure him into mistakes. Cleveland is 19th in sacks allowed per game (2.4), while Houston is 13th in getting sacks gained (2.5 spg). The last 3 games have really been bad for Cleveland as they have put up just 11 ppg and 286 ypg, including 90 ypg on the ground. There is no way this Cleveland offense can put enough points on the board to keep this one close. Houston is playing very well right now and can not afford to look past anyone. Look for them to win this one by about 17 points. KEY TRENDS--- Cleveland is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs the AFC, while Houston is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 250 yards or less.

4 UNIT PLAY

Buffalo/ NY Jets Under 44: Boy I think this OU line is a few points to high. The Bills are off a shutout and the Jets defense seems to be rounding into form. The Jet's come in with the 29th ranked offense as they have put up just 300.1 ypg and they are 22nd in passing (207.7 ypg) and 28th in rushing (92.4 ypg). Sanchez has not fared well vs the Bills as he has thrown for just 128 ypg, with 3 TD's and 5 INT's in his career vs Buffalo. The Jets have put up 272 ypg on the ground the last 2 years vs Buffalo, but that won't happen here as their Ground game has been non-existent and they are playing behind an OL that has been mess this year, mostly due to injuries. The Bills defense is nothing special, but they did totally shut down a Washington offense that is better than this Jets offense. The Bills offense has been the surprise of the league this year as they come in ranked 10th overall and 13th in passing, but I don't expect Fitzpatrick to challenge this very good Jet scondary too much. Instead I expect them to use Fred jackson and this strong running game to pound the ball at this Jets defense that is 25th vs the run, allowing 127 ypg. The Jets are 14th in points allowed (21.7 ppg), while the Bills have allowed just 21 ppg (12th). I just see both defenses ruling the day in this one as these teams put up around 37 points here. KEY STAT--- The Last 5 years after a bye week NY Jet games have averaged just 32.2 ppg, including just 28 ppg in their two games off a Bye under Rex Ryan.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Atlanta -6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS: Andrew Luck get ready as you may be coming to the Colts next year. Indianapoli is a mess on both sides of the ball right now and there seems to be no relief in site. With Peyton out this once proud offense has fallen to 30th in the league in total offense (295 ypg) and they are 27th in passing (192.8 ypg). A far cry from when Peyton is at the helm. The Colts haven't been able to run either as injuries have hampered their ground game and they need to run to take the pressure off Painter. Now as bad as the offense is, their defense is even worse. The Colts come in ranked 31st overall (402.9 ypg), 22 vs the pass (258.9 ypg) and 31st vs the run (144 ypg), plus they have allowed the most points in the league (31.5 ppg). The Last 4 weeks this pass defense has really been torched as they have allowed 77% completions for 261 ypg, with 11 TDs and ZERO INT's. Ouch. The Atlanta offense is middle of the pack this year, but they do have a lot of weapons and have looked much better in their last 2 wins vs Carolina and Detroit. The Atlanta defense hasn't been great this year, allowing 363 ypg and 23.3 ppg, but in their last 2 games they have allowed just 313 ypg and 16.5 ppg, so this unit is getting stronger and should have no problems stopping this weak Colts attack. Therre is the possibility of a look ahead as Atlnat has the Saints on deck, but I don't think they will, especially after the Saints were upset last week by the Rams. Atlanta can not afford to take this 0-8 team lightly. The Falcons are off a bye week, so they are fresh and will be fuilly focused for this one as they keep the Colts winless by at least 10 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Non-Conference road favorites off a bye week are 17-4-1 ATS since 2000.

NYGiants/ New England Over 51: The last couple games for the Pats have been lower scoring that one would think, but that should change today. The Patriots have been held in check the last 2 weeks as they have been held to just 242 ypg and 18.5 ppg vs Dallas and Pittsburgh and you have to believe that this offense is really looking to get back to the success they had earlier in the year. The Pats are still 3rd in offense overall (437 ypg), 2nd in passing (325 ypg) and 5th in scoring (28.9 ppg) and they should be able to get back on track vs a Giants team that has allowed 23.4 ppg on the year (21st), including allowing 26 ppg over their last 4 games. The Giants problem this year has been stopping the run (28th) and the Patriots have the ability to run the ball and that will open up the throwing lanes for Brady to pick apart this average Giants secondary. The Giants do not have the abilty to run the ball and that has prompted Eli Manning to just start throwing the ball all over the place. The giants come in ranked 4th in passing (287.6 ypg), but in the last 4 games Eli Manning has completed 68% of his passes for 345.5 ypg, with 7 TDS and just 3 INT's. Very impressive numbers and today he will get to face the worst pass defense in the league. The pats are 9th vs the run, but when teams can throw for 323 ypg vs them then why would they run the ball? New England has faced good and bad passing teams and have been thrown on by everyone, so what kind of success will Eli have? I say some very good success. The FAA may want to get involved in this one with all the balls mthat will be in the air. Both of these offense should have a field day today as this one puts nearly 60 points on the board.

2 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ Tennessee Over 41.5: The Titans rushing defense has struggled the last 3 weeks, aloowing 184 ypg and 5.5 ypc and now get to face a Cincy team that gets Cedric Benson back from suspension. That running game will help open some throwing lanes for Dalton and this improving Cincy pass offense. The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league, but Hasselbeck and company should be able to move the ball on them. The Titan's run game has struggled this year, but their passing game is a solid 14th, putting up 240 ypg. The Bengals have averaged 30 ppg in their last 3, while Tennessee has given up 30 ppg in that same stretch. I do expect a struggling Teneessee offense (19.9 ppg) to get their share of points as both teams hit the 20+ point mark.

1 UNIT PLAYS

San Francisco / Washington Under 37.5: Rex Grossman isn't the answer and niether is Beck and I see this Skins team having problems scoring all year long. Last week they were shutout by a pretty bad Bills defense and they allowed 9 sacks in the game. Now they face a SF team that is 10th in total defense (329 ypg), 1st vs the run (74 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.3 ppg). I don't see much coming from this Skins offense. The niners are 31st in passing, but 6th in rsuhing and all that running will eat somre clock. The Giants are 19th in yards per play (5.2), while the Skins are 25th (5.0 ypp), so niether team has many big plays and they will have to work their way down the field with long time consuming drives. I look for around 31 points in this one.

Oakland/ Denver Under 42.5: Tim Tebow is not ready to be the full time starter, so I look for Denver to rely abit more on the ground game today. Oakland has Carson Palmer starting at QB, but this team is still a running ball club and even without McFadden they will look to pound the ball vs a Denver team that they have have just run all over the last few meetings. Okland games have averaged just 38 ppg after a bye the last 8 years and that just about where I see this one ending.

Nelly

Houston - over Cleveland

Houston moved to 3-0 in AFC South games with a solid win over Jacksonville last week. The Texans are 5-3 but all three losses have been in tight games against quality teams. With Arian Foster back to full strength Houston possesses a dangerous offense, and the defense has much better numbers than most would expect. Houston is currently third in the NFL in fewest yards allowed; only trailing perennial powers Baltimore and Pittsburgh. At 3-4 Cleveland has been reasonably competitive led by its defense but the Browns are sitting behind three two-loss teams in the AFC North. The schedule for Cleveland will get very tough down the stretch and for a realistic playoff run Cleveland needed to be in better position at this point in the season. Cleveland is scoring just 15 points per game and in a second straight road game this game could be a challenge.

James Patrick Sports

Giants vs. Patriots

The Giants and Patriots meet Sunday for the first time since New York’s Super Bowl XLII upset over (18-0) New England following the 2007 season. The Underdog is (4-1) ATS in their last (5) meetings with the Giants (13-6) ATS in their last (19) games as a road underdog and (29-13) ATS in their last (42) road games. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on New York Giants.

Matt Fargo

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2.5

St. Louis is coming off its biggest victory of the season last week at home against New Orleans. Check that, it was its first win of the season last week after starting the season 0-6. A huge win like that, and with it being the first, can provide a huge letdown next time out and that is what we will be seeing this week in Arizona. The Rams scored more points last week than their previous four games combined so don't think for a second that they have suddenly flipped the switch and have turned things around. Arizona is coming off a demoralizing loss in Baltimore last week as it blew a 24-3 lead and lost on a last second field goal. The Cardinals dropped to 1-6 but are arguably the best 1-6 team in the league even if that may be considered an oxymoron. Four of those losses have come by four points or fewer and three of those took place on the road. This is just the second home game in a month for Arizona and it will be ready to get back on the winning side in just its second divisional game of the season. Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is most likely out for this game but that is a good thing. He has struggled against pressure and he still has not gotten the offense down and that is proven with his 77.8 quarterback rating. John Skelton will be making the start in his absence and while he struggled at times last season in four starts, he knows the offense and he got better as the season progressed. He will have Beanie Wells in the backfield who is still hurt but remains a threat after another good showing last week. As for the Rams, quarterback Sam Bradford will be another gametime decision. He has taken a step back from his rookie season and that can be blamed on a poor offensive line and a limited receiving corps. A.J. Feeley averaged just 9.8 yards per completion against the Cowboys and 8.8 yards against the Saints and he has a combined rating of 68.3. The Rams have converted only 29 percent of their third-down attempts which is third-worst rate in the league. Arizona is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of three points or less and 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. The Rams meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and they fall into a negative situation here. Play against teams that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Arizona Cardinals

Tony George

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -8.5

The Giants get exposed this weekend. Never mind the fact, even with a bad defense, especially against the pass, New England is the better team, and they are at home. The Giants have beat just 1 team with a winning record and are without RB Bradshaw and all world WR Nicks this weekend on the road! Last time I checked, they were the biggest playmakers on the team. The Pats none to happy about the beat down they suffered last week at Pitt, and although the Giants pass rush formatible, Brady gets rid of it so quick that it neutralizes the best part of the Giants defense.

The Giants are under the radar screen in terms of public perception, which I mean to say they are over perceived, as their opponents record of the teams they have beat is a combined 15-34. Pats better, and no doubt they have seen at some point some highlights of the Super Bowl where the Giants beat them, and a small amount of revenge here is possible. If Pats get rolling, trust me, they will not let off the throttle. Pats at home, off a loss, facing the team that waxed them in the Super Bowl and getting a chance to play them for the first time? Forget about it!!

Ray Monohan

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Odds have the Steelers as a 3-point favorite at home, where they are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Ravens, with three overs and a push when it comes to the total. The Ravens laid a 35-7 beating on the Steelers in Week 1, and you could tell that the Ravens put everything they had into that game, but they’re in the middle of a slump. The Steelers have taken that loss to the Ravens and channeled it to the point that some are calling them the team to beat in the AFC. This game comes down to quarterbacking, and you have to take Roethlisberger over Flacco every day of the week, even after what happened in Week 1. It also helps that the Steelers are coming off a win over another AFC power, so they’ll be focused. Take Pittsburgh to cover.

Scott Rickenbach

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
PICK: Dallas Cowboys -11

The Cowboys are off of Sunday night's embarrassing loss at Philadelphia. It's bounce back time here and Dallas is hosting the perfect team to absolutely dominate! Seattle comes into this game with an ugly 4-16 ATS mark in road games the last three seasons combined. Additionally, the Seahawks have been held to a total of just 20 points combined in their three road losses this season! The Hawks will stand no chance against a Cowboys team that will be fired up after last week's embarrassing loss to the Eagles. Note that Dallas is 6-3 (67%) ATS in the month of November the last two seasons. Though the points that the Cowboys are laying here are large, it is certainly worth noting that three of the Hawks five losses this season have come by a margin of at least 16 points. Another huge loss gets laid on the Seahawks here as they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time!

Bryan Power

New York J@ Buffalo
PICK: Over 44

This seems like a pretty low number considering the Bills had gone Over in every game prior to last week's shutout win over the Redskins and the fact that the Jets are an incredible 13-1 Over their last 14 road games. Both times these AFC East rivals met last season saw the Over cash and that's with Buffalo scoring only 21 total points in the two games (lost both). I would not be surprised to see the Jets offense have one of its better showings of the season here as Buffalo had given up at least 414 total yds in five straight weeks before the win over Washington. The Bills rank 26th in the league in total defense and allow 120 rushing yds/game. The Jets ground game finally got on track prior to the bye week, gaining a season high 162 yds vs. San Diego. Last year, they ran over Buffalo for nearly 550 yds in the two wins. Over the last four meetings, they have averaged 279 yds rushing per game vs. the Bills. Buffalo can run the ball as well w/ Fred Jackson and can pass it better than the Jets w/ QB Fitzpatrick. The Jets have gone Over in all but two games this season, when their opponents (MIA and JAX) totaled a combined 9 pts. 5* Over NY Jets/Buffalo.