TEDDY COVERS
Giants @ Patriots
PICK: Over 51
Statistically, New England’s defense is as bad as it gets in the NFL this year. The Pats rank dead last in yards per game allowed, by a fairly wide margin. New England is #32 out of 32 NFL teams in yards per play allowed. Their pass defense also ranks dead last in the league. We saw those defensive weaknesses on full display last week against the Steelers. Facing an elite quarterback and a balanced offense, the Pats didn’t force a single ‘three-and-out’ for the entire game. In fact, the Steelers gained 40 or more yards on seven of their first eight drives, consistently moving the football against this defense like a hot knife through butter.
There’s no reason to think that Eli Manning and the Giants balanced offense won’t have similar success here, whether Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks suit up for the G-men or not. New York’s offense has been explosive all year; cashing only two Under tickets in their first seven games. Manning ranks #3 in the NFL in QB rating. His 8.8 yards per pass attempt ranks only behind Aaron Rodgers. Facing a bottom tier defense, expect the Giants to score points in bunches.
New England has hung 30+ in 13 of their last 15 regular season games. After getting physically manhandled by the Steelers last Sunday, this week, the Pats face a much weaker secondary. The numbers don’t lie. In recent weeks, Arizona hung 27 on these Giants, Seattle 36. When the Giants ferocious pass rush doesn’t reach the opposing quarterback, their cornerbacks and safeties have been picked apart consistently. Tom Brady doesn’t take many sacks with his quick release. That leaves the door wide open for big plays galore out of both passing games, setting us up for the antithesis of their low scoring Super Bowl matchup four years ago. Take the Over.
Chip Chirimbes
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Miami Dolphins +4½
No, I have not lost my senses as you might remember I posted Miami against the New York Giants last week and week collected the cash. Having spent the last week in Miami these fans are on a 'Suck for Luck' campaign not realizing that this organization (?) will NEVER have Luck in a Dolphins uniform. They really have no idea what it takes to build a winner and Luck knows this and will hold Miami for ransom and they probably won't draft him if they had the chance anyway. The community may have quit on the Dolphins but they haven't quit on each other. This line is way too low as the Chiefs have won four straight and will get caught look ahead to next weeks division game against Denver and the New England.
Larry Ness
Buccaneers / Saints
Pick: Over
The Saints failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity last Sunday in St Louis. The Falcons and Bucs were both idle (each team was 4-3), meaning the 5-2 Saints needed only to best the 0-6 Rams to move to 6-2, which would have increased their division lead to 1 1/2 games. However, the Saints blew their chance at extending their NFC South lead by losing 31-21 to the previously winless Rams. Brees had a sub-par game with a a modest 269 yards passing (one TD and two INTs for a QB rating of 73.). Without Ingram, the New Orleans rushing game was held to 56 yards on 20 carries (2.8 YPC) and the OL allowed Brees to be sacked SIX times. The New Orleans D (often a shaky unit) hardly slowed down backup QB Feely plus RB Steven Jackson shredded the Saints’ rush D, gaining 159 yards and two TDs. The Bucs opened the season with a home loss to the Lions but then won three straight. A 48-3 loss followed at San Francisco in Week 5 but then the Bucs beat these Saints 26-20 in Tampa Bay. Brees threw for 383 yards in that game but was intercepted three times, including at the goal line in the final minute of the game (Saints had four TOs in that game to Tampa Bay’s none). The Bucs then traveled to London for a Week 7 game with the Bears and lost 24-18. A week after QB Freeman had 303 yards with two TDs and no INTs vs the Saints and Graham ran for 109 yards, Freeman had four INTs (51.4 QB rating) vs the Bears, as the Bucs totaled 280 yards on offense. Graham was lost for the year with an in jury in the London game, as the Bucs ran for 30 yards on 11 carries. That sets up this game in New Orleans. The Saints are a half-game up on the Bucs and Falcons (Atlanta plays at 0-8 Indy) entering Week 9 (halfway point of a 17-week schedule). The Bucs get good news in that Blount is expected back from his knee injury, which is a big deal with Graham on IR. However, while Blount rand for 1,007 yards last year (5.0 YPC), he’s got a modest 328 yards this season with his lone 100-yard effort coming against winless Indy (127 yards). In his other four games, he’s run for just 201 yards (3.9 YPC). QB Josh Freeman had a breakout season in his second year (2010), with 25 TDs and just six INTs (474 attempts) in 16 games (QB rating of 95.9). However, after just seven games in 2011, he’s already been intercepted 10 times (in only 270 attempts) with just seven TDs plus a QB rating of 73.1. The Saints are a different team at home. They’ve had to play FIVE of their first eight games on the road (2-3) but here in the Superdome, they are 3-0 SU and ATS. The team has averaged 44.0 PPG and 464.3 YPG. Brees is completing 75.9% in those three home games, averaging 321.7 YPG through the air with 11 TDs and just two INTs. Brees threw his only TD pass last Sunday in St Louis with just six seconds remaining in the contest. It marked his 35th consecutive game with at least one TD pass, leaving him one shy of Brett Favre’s 36-game streak, which is currently second to only the 47-game streak owned by Johnny Unitas. The Saints (or Brees) are not worrying all that much about that record but expect Brees to get a TD pass in his 36th straight game on Sunday (actually, my over/under is three TDs). Often times, a second meeting between division rivals produces fewer points than the first one. However, in this case, I expect WAY MORE than the 46 points scored when these teams met at Tampa in Week 6.
Joe D'Amico
Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans
Pick: Houston Texans
Houston has the AFC South in the palm of their hands, going 3-0 in the division. With RB, Arian Foster back at 100%, the Texan's are very dangerous. Much to many people's surprise, Houston is 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed. There is a lot of whispers that wide out, Andre Johnson is going to see action here. If the WR plays or not, the Browns still have to prepare for him. Cleveland is most probably the least explosive and threatening team in football. QB, Colt McCoy doesn't have the experience or savvy to compensate for his lack of playmakers on the offensive unit. They are posting a mere 15.3 PPG. The Brown's are 2-13 ATS their L15 overall, 1-7-1 ATS their L9 games played vs. the AFC, and 0-5 their L5 games played against teams with a winning record. The Texan's are 4-1-1 ATS their L6 games played as a home favorite, 5-2-1 ATS their L8 vs. the AFC, and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played after an ATS loss. Take Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO –2 over N.Y. Jets
Everyone expects the Bills to come crashing down to earth but it just hasn’t happened and may not. Buffalo remains underrated while the Jets are still a public team that is perceived to be better than they are. The Jets are coming off back-to-back wins over Miami and San Diego and that’s fresh in the betting public’s mind. What’s not fresh is that both those games were hosted by the Jets and prior to that they dropped three straight, allowing 30 or more in each. Buffalo will host its first ‘true’ home game in three weeks, prior to embarking on a three-game road trip. The Jets really aren’t much at all. They have no running game, Mark Sanchez has been brutal on the road and Ralph Wilson Stadium gets tougher to play at every week the weather gets colder. The Bills made the Redskins look like amateurs last week. Buffalo’s offense is vastly superior and the Jets are 0-3 on the road while the Bills are 4-0 at home. The Bills have scored more and allowed less points than all teams in this division and let’s also not ignore that the Jets put two beatings on the Bills a year ago by scores of 38-14 and 38-7. What a difference a year makes and the Bills prove once again that they’re for real. Play: Buffalo –2 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Miami +188 over KANSAS CITY
While the Dolphins remain winless and the Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak, there isn’t that much that separates these two. Kansas City’s three wins, prior to Monday night’s miracle, were against the Donovan McNabb led Vikings, the winless Colts and the quarterback-less Raiders. San Diego dominated the Chiefs on Monday but came up short after a myriad of gaffs. Play that game 100 times and San Diego wins 38-3 99 times; that’s how one-sided it was. Now the Chiefs are off that big Monday night win with one less day to prepare and with games against Denver, New England and Pittsburgh on deck. The Chiefs are the biggest 4-3 fraud in a long, long time. This marks the first time since opening day that Kansas City is favored, a game they were lambasted in by a 41-7 count. Miami is on the verge of a win. They probably should’ve won its last two after blowing a 15-0 lead against Denver and just missing against the Giants last week. Matt Moore is playing well and the Fish just keep missing. That all ends here for the Fish, as they’re the better team and they’re in a favorable spot too. Play: Miami +188 (Risking 2 units).
INDIANAPOLIS +7½ over Atlanta
You Colts fans are the luckiest folks on the planet! You got the first overall in ’98, and picked Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf. Manning carries you for over a decade, gets you a championship and a quality product to watch on a weekly basis. Then, the year he finally misses a game, he misses the whole damn season, the team falls apart, and it just happens to be the year before the next Peyton Manning is available in the draft. That aside, this one actually sets up beautifully for the Colts. The Falcons are coming off a bye after that huge win in Detroit. Atlanta is in big danger of taking its eyes off the task at hand here. The infamous "trap game" is the buzz word surrounding Atlanta this week, as the Falcons look ahead to a visit from the rival Saints next week. Atlanta’s run game, a key component for them, suffered a significant blow with the loss of fullback Ovie Mughelli. Colts return home after three weeks away and a close look at their home games reveals three close losses. They were beaten by Pittsburgh by three and they also had a 17-0 lead over KC before a late collapse. This is another one that has all the danger flags of an upset. Play: Indianapolis +7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Chicago +8 over PHILADELPHIA
We should thank the Cowboys for this one. Think about it. What would this line have been prior to Philly’s Sunday night dismantling of the enigmatic Cowboys? Four? Maybe five? Now we’re being handed a slew of extra points with a rested Bears team that had won two-straight and appeared quite solid in doing so. Chicago’s Cover-2 defensive scheme and strong linebacking corps will not allow receivers to roam freely as they did against Dallas. Philadelphia’s defense has been susceptible to top-tier running backs and none is more versatile than Chicago’s Matt Forte. This is a huge overreaction to the “Dream Team” finally getting off the mattress and putting a whipping on somebody. Not that the Bears need any more motivation but this line is a big insult to them and you can be damn sure they’ll have a response. This is a ridiculous line based on one strong win by Philadelphia and an upset would not surprise one bit. Play: Chicago +8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
The rest (with no wagers).
HOUSTON –10½ over Cleveland
The Texans are not the type of team to continually be spotting double-digits with but as long as the schedule keeps presenting opponents with limited scoring ability, we have no choice but to give the points away. Cleveland’s only victory since September was a 6-3 home win over Seattle. Play: Houston –10½ (No bets).
DALLAS –11½ over Seattle
The Cowboys continue to disappoint but this visitor is more their speed, as evidenced by Dallas’ last win, a 34-7 romp over the Rams. Don’t expect the Cowboys to take this one lightly as they were humiliated in front of national audience on Sunday night and Uncle Jerry is miffed. The Seachickens travel badly, they were smoked at home by Cincinnati, they can’t move five yards and Pete Carroll is clueless. Play: Dallas –11½ (No bets).
NEW ORLEANS –8 over Tampa Bay
No problem figuring out these Saints after they won a game 62-7 and then lost to the 0-6 Rams. Doh! Perhaps New Orleans had sights on avenging loss to Tampa Bay from first division clash, just three weeks ago. Tampa’s depleted secondary allows the tables to be turned here. Play: New Orleans –8 (No bets).
WASHINGTON +3½ over San Francisco
Okay, so Kyle Shanahan spent the summer pimping John Beck as the next big thing, and we rolled our eyes. Then Rex Grossman was named the starter and we rolled our eyes. And now we are eight games in and the Redskins are keen to the fact that they are in a “lesser of two evils” situation at quarterback. Either that or Kyle Shanahan himself is defective as an offensive coordinator. Or both. Probably both. However, this is the NFL and despite the Redskins wretched performance last week, funny things happen to teams when they are asked to spot road points for first time, despite any recent success. The small, enticing line also warns of danger of laying the points. Play: Washington +3½ (No bets).
St. Louis +2 over ARIZONA
Okay, so Kevin Kolb has turf toe. Gee, we hope he doesn’t start playing like crap now. We hope they don't have to replace him with someone that sucks. Actually Kolb is out for the Cardinals, putting John Skelton at QB and that’s a big issue, as John Skelton past performances were no better than Red Skeleton’s. How did Monday night schedulers let this one slip through? While both have terrible records, the Rams can provide better excuses having played four of its seven games against division leaders and it’s actually somewhat absurd to lay points with Cardinals. Play: St. Louis +2 (No bets).
Denver +7½ over OAKLAND
Are we over this Tebow thing now? Yeah, you can spot the Dolphins 15 and live to tell but coming back from down 30 to the Lions is like trying to push a camel through the eye of a needle. So, can we take down the billboards and just pretend none of this ever happened? If you really love Tebow, you will drop to your knees and pray that he is benched and spared the degradation of these weekly public humiliations and mockings. Apparently likeability and faith fall somewhere behind accuracy, footwork, the ability to read complex defenses, protecting the football and mechanics as it pertains to being a successful NFL QB. John Fox gave into public pressure but it’s hard to imagine hiom leaving Tebopw out there for any length of time. We’re guessing that Tebow isn’t in for entire game and with prohibitive points to play with and Oakland still without star RB Darren McFadden, we’ll lean Broncos. Play: Denver +7½ (No bets).
Cincinnati +3 over TENNESSEE
The Titans are terrible and should not be favored against any winning team. Even last week’s home win over the woeful Colts was due largely in part to a blocked field goal and a pair of long field goals. Cincinnati is no fluke and with better players on both sides of ball, they take this one. Play: Cincinnati +3 (No bets).
NEW ENGLAND +8½ over N.Y. Giants
The ‘other’ Manning is playing quite well as Eli appears to be in a groove with his Giants. However, that cannot mask New York’s vulnerable run-stopping inabilities and with the Patriots off a loss and Bill Belichick’s master planning, expect the Patriots to exploit said weakness. Play: New England –8½ (No bets).
SAN DIEGO +6½ over GREEN BAY
The Chargers can be agonizing to watch, or even worse, invest in but with the champs coming to town and the bitter taste of Monday’s fiasco fresh on the betting public’s palate, this one gets over adjusted. Green Bay’s defense has just enough holes in it to allow this contest to stay close. Chargers have all the talent in the world to beat anyone but lack all the intangibles. Still, the last time they were a dog a home was in 2003. Play: San Diego +6½ (No bets).
Baltimore +3½ over PITTSBURGH
We know the story. Steelers on a roll. Steelers embarrassed by earlier 35-7 whipping in Baltimore, Steelers undefeated at home. We get it. However, the Ravens are at their best when facing this hated rival and with Pittsburgh hurting in some key spots, have to take any points being offered. Far too many folks on Steelers and while it may appeal like they woke up big time with rather easy win over New England, this pressure defense of the Ravens is a whole different animal. Play: Baltimore +3½ (No bets).
EZWINNERS
Dallas Cowboys -11
The Cowboys are coming off of an embarrassing 34-7 loss last Saturday night in Philadelphia, but I expect them to bounce back with a stellar effort against an inferior opponent in the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is taking the blame for the ass kicking last week and you can bet that the Cowboys defense will respond and the Seahawks provide the perfect opportunity to do so. Seattle's offense has not been good with Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. The Seahawks put up a combined 64 points against the Falcons and Giants, but in their other five games they averaged just 9 points per game. The running game for Seattle has been nonexistent as the Seahawks have only rushed for 65 yards or more only twice this season. The Dallas offense did nothing last week against the Eagles, but I also expect this group to get back on track. The Seahawks do a fairly good job against the run, but Dallas should kill them through the air. Seattle is without its two best cornerbacks, Marcus Trufant and Walter Thurmond and they are going to struggle to slow down Cowboy's quarterback Tony Romo and has dangerous weapons in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The Seahawks are only 3-12-1 against the spread in their last sixteen road games and I expect this one to get ugly. Lay the points.
King Creole
Bengals / Titans Under 42
Bow-WOW!
Mans Best Friend SPEEDEE has nailed THREE 'Unders' in a row in the Totals Tipsheet... and he’ll take his act to Music City in Week Eight for a LOW-scoring game between the Bengals and Titans. Let’s check the OU tendencies for these 2 divisions:
1-7 O/U L4Y: All AFC SOUTH favs -13 < pts (Ten) vs an AFC NORTH opponent (Cin).
Tennessee comes in off a BIG division win (27-10 over Indy).
1-9 O/U L4Y: All GAME 12 < non-div home favs playing off a double-digit division HOME win (Ten).
The Bengals returned from their Bye Week with a convincing 34-12 win over Seattle.
1-6 O/U s’07: All non-div road teams playing off a DD road win AFTER their Bye Week (Cin).
So, BOTH teams are off big wins.
0-6 O/U s’06: All GAME 12 pts (Cin / Ten)... when the OU line is < 43 pts.
It’s surprising that Cincy’s #4 defense in the NFL is actually off 4 ‘Overs’ in a row.
1-8 O/U s’96: All GAME 13 or less teams playing off 4 SUATS wins in a row... and 4 ‘Overs’ in a row (Cin).
James Patrick Sports
Giants vs. Patriots
The Giants and Patriots meet Sunday for the first time since New York’s Super Bowl XLII upset over (18-0) New England following the 2007 season. The Underdog is (4-1) ATS in their last (5) meetings with the Giants (13-6) ATS in their last (19) games as a road underdog and (29-13) ATS in their last (42) road games. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on New York Giants.
Rocketman
NY Jets @ Buffalo
Play: NY Jets +3
NY Jets are 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Buffalo the past 3 years. Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Jets are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 9. Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East. Bills are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 1-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Bills are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Jets today!
MTi Sports
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Play: Denver Broncos
Oakland’s trend number six from the 2011 NFL Handicapping Bible reads, “OAK006: The Raiders are 0-17 ATS (-9.3) after a loss in which they got at least three first downs by their opponent's penalty.” Oakland’s trend number eight from the 2011 KillerSports.com NFL Handicapping Bible reads, “OAK008: The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since December 30th, 2001, when they are off a seven-plus point ATS loss as a three-plus point favorite.” Consider grabbing Denver and this big number.
Vegas Experts
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins may be winless, but they catch the Chiefs on a short week and Kansas City is not as good as their 4-3 record might indicate. Road underdogs off seven or more losses have cashed at a 75% rate since 1983. Miami is 18-9 ATS in road games under head coach Tony Sparano.
Steve Merril
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has struggled this season without QB Peyton Manning, however most of their bad performances have come on the road where the Colts stand 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. Indianapolis is 0-3 SU at home, but they have been competitive in all three of those home games, losing by just 8, 3, and 4 point margins. Winless underdogs have also been a long-term winning play after the first month of the season and the Colts qualify in a solid 60% ATS situation based on that premise. Keep in mind that the Rams won outright as a +13.5 home underdog last week in a very similar situation. The Falcons might overlook this struggling non-conference opponent today, especially after a bye week and with a big divisional game versus New Orleans on deck next week. Atlanta remains an overrated team as the Falcons are averaging just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.9 yppl). The Falcons are mediocre on defense as well and overall Atlanta is being out-gained 5.4 to 6.1 yards per play and has been outscored per game this season.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -8.5
The Saints qualify in a nice system here today that plays on teams with revenge for a road favored loss. These two hooked up last month with Tampa emerging with a 26-20 home win. The Saints are 8-0 ats off a loss vs a winning teams and have covered the last 3 times as a home favorite from -7.5 to -10. The Saints are averaging 44 points at home and are 100 yards better on offense and 45 yards better on defense. Tampa played their last game in London in a loss to the Bears and are in a tough spot here. Based on the system above which has cashed 35 of 49 times, the revenge and the Angles we will lean with the Saints.
David Chan
Canucks @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5.5
The 6-7-1 Vancouver Canucks fly into Chicago to take on the 8-2-3 Chicago Blackhawks.
These clubs are very familiar with each other, having faced each other in crucial postseason battles over the last three years.
Chicago got the better of Vancouver until the Canucks finally broke the trend last season.
Vancouver continues its roller coaster start to the year; it started its six game road trip with a convincing 5-1 victory in Calgary which was its second straight; however it then lost 5-1 at Minnesota on Thursday and 3-2 at St. Louis on Friday:
“If we fight as hard as we did (Friday) and have that desperation level, we’ll be fine,” tonight's starting goaltender Roberto Luongo said.
Luongo will look to duplicate the success he enjoyed in his last regular season meeting at the United Center, December 3rd, when he made 32 saves in his team's 3-0 victory.
Chicago had its three game win streak snapped in a 5-4 OT loss at Tampa Bay last time out.
Corey Crawford is expected between the pipes, looking to improve upon his stellar 6-2-2 record and 2.33 GAA thus far; he's 4-4-0 with a 2.06 GAA during the regular and post-season vs. Vancouver.
All signs point to a low-scoring affair!
Jim Feist
Broncos vs Raiders
Pick: Under
Denver (2-5 SU/ATS) QB Kyle Orton (8 TDs, 7 INTs) is out with the offense 27th in passing, 20th in rushing. QB Tim Tebow (4 TD, 1 INTs) gets the start again and he’s been mostly awful. They come off a 45-10 home loss to the Lions, giving up 376 yards as Denver went mostly to the ground on offense (195 yards rushing). That looks to be the plan as Tebow can’t pass. Tebow took two delay-of-game penalties and seven sacks. In the comeback against Miami two weeks ago, 18-15, the offense was all-running with 184 yards rushing, 125 passing. Their 16 turnovers are the most in the league. No. 1 WR Brandon Lloyd was just traded and fellow receiver Eddie Royal is available. Royal was the team’s No. 2 receiver until he suffered a partially torn groin in week 2. The young defense has been mostly down, allowing 190 yards rushing in the opener, 382 yards total to the Bengals and 311 yards passing to Tennessee. They held two opponents to 72 and 38 yards rushing and the other two to 99 and 212 yards passing. Problem was, when the Broncos shut down the run, adversaries threw (310 and 295 yards), and when they were able to limit the pass, they couldn’t stop the run (190 and 206). Oakland comes off a bye week. Oakland (4-3 SU/5-2 ATS) has a dynamite ground game in RB Darren McFadden with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders. However, QB Jason Campbell (6 TDs, 4 INTs) broke his collarbone and is out for the year, so backup QB Kyle Boller and newcomer Carson Palmer take over. And McFadden is battling a sprained right foot. This running game is No. 2 in the NFL (159 yds rushing pg). The new QBs were a disaster the last game, a 28-0 home loss to Kansas City combining for 6 picks! Palmer said he felt as if he were playing in a preseason game. “Just to get my feet wet, call a play in the huddle, throw a ball in live action and make errors and make mistakes,” Palmer said. Backup Bruce Campbell is moving from guard to tackle. The Raiders likely will be without McFadden here and the Broncos just have trouble scoring. WIth the new rules governing how much teams can practice during their bye week, I don't expect the Raiders to be too sharp here, especially with a new QB. Expect a low scoring game. I'm taking the UNDER here on Sunday.