Doug Upstone
Washington + the points
The Washington Redskins are like the economy, beatup, stagnant and no real hope for the immediate future. However, Sunday could bring a ray of sunshine since home underdogs allowing 335 or more total yards per game, after gaining four or less yards per play and permitting 6.5 or more YPP in their last game are 27-7 since 1983.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit New England Patriots -8.5
Motivated by last week's loss at Pittsburgh, and further fueled by a 17-14 upset loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, expect the Patriots to take care of business on their home field this afternoon. At first glance you might think this spread seems a little large. But consider that the Pats are 3-0 at home this season where they have defeated the Chargers, Jets and Cowboys by an average score of 28.3 to 19.3. Plus, New England has been covering in the chalk for years. The Patriots are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Patriots are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU loss. The Giants must pressure Tom Brady, like they did in the Super Bowl, to pull off the upset, but I don't see it happening with leading sack man Jason Pierre-Paul being limited with a neck injury. Plus, that New England team relied on stretching the defense with deep balls to Randy Moss. Protection had to hold up longer on those deep routes. Brady is able to get the ball out much quicker in this very effective and efficient dink and dunk offense. Injuries to leading receiver Hakeem Nicks and leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw will also hurt New York in this one. The Giants are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game since the beginning of the 2009 season. Expect this trend to hold true here. Lay the points.
JR O'Donnell
Seahawks / Cowboys Over 45
The O'ster is on a Rock Solid 12-4 ALL SPORTS RUN....... Today's Members Play goes OFF!!!! Seattle Seahawks visit the Dallas Cowboys today at 1 PM EST, and nobody would have had America's team at 3-4 at almost the halfway mark in the season. Seahawks have the 31st ranked defense in the NFL, and are 18th against the pass, while Cowboys are #7 in passing yardage. QB Tony Romo has completed 63% of his tosses for 1959 yards and "11" TD. His opposing QB Tavaris Jackson has completed 61% for 1335 yards and "6" TD. Seattle is 31st in running the football, with an average of 77.7 yds per game. Marshawn Lynch is their premier runner, and only averages 3.6 yards per carry. Power Rated @ 51 points....
Romo has a history, as does Dallas under Jason Garrett of rebounding from defeat, as he is 4-1 since taking over the reins of the Cowboys. The only blemish was a loss at New England when the Patriots scored with "22" seconds left to win. They are rebounding from not just a defeat, but a lopsided one to the so called "Dream Team" Eagles by the score of 34-7, in a game Offshore Sports had. Dallas has a top "3" defense, and have stumbled after a 2-1 start with "3" losses in "4" games. The biggest problem for Seattle is that they literally have no running game, and now must face the Cowboys "D" and Marcus Ware with nothing to keep them honest. Seahawks have lost "7" of their last "8" away, and have gone over the total in "14" of their last "18" and "7" of their last "9" on the road! Dallas has gone over in "15" of their last "20" and "10" of their last "12" at home.
Bob Balfe
Jets +2.5 over Bills
I am still not 100% sold on Buffalo. They are a good football team, but really have one because of a lot of turnovers. They have a very young offensive line that will be missing their starting left tackle today. I expect the Jets to play great defense and for them to shutdown the run and pass. New York should pound the rock today with their running game which will take the pressure off Sanchez and allow him to have a decent game. Look for the Jets to win a physical battle today. Take the Jets.
Jimmy Moore
Green Bay @ San Diego
Pick: San Diego +5.5
The Charges will be fired up big time for this one taking on the defending Champs and with the way they gave away the Monday Night game last week to Kansas City. Green Bay's offense is strong but their defense is not so hot so look for the Chargers to score some points and keep this game within the number or get the outright win.
Hollywood Sports
Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Perhaps the Chargers (4-3) got three games of miscues and mistakes out of their way in their last two losses at Kansas City and at the Jets over the last two weeks. But San Diego gets to return home now where they have only been an underdog one other time over the last seven seasons. The Chargers enjoy a strong 16-7-1 ATS record at home in their last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers' 6th statistically ranked defense should be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' 4th ranked statistical offense. But where San Diego owns an advantage is their 6th ranked offense facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in yards allowed. In particular, the Packers are allowing 288.9 passing YPG (31st in the NFL) which Phillip Rivers should be able to exploit as the Chargers average 283.4 passing YPG (6th in the NFL) themselves. And remember that its November and the Chargers have covered 7 straight games in this month played under coach Norv Turner. This is one of the games on the defending Super Bowl champs schedule that the '73 Dolphins will be watching closely. Rodgers may lead them to victory but look for it to be a tough "out." Take the points with San Diego.
John Ryan
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
5* graded play on Indianapolis Colts as they host the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that the Colts will lose this game by five or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game and end the media talk of an imperfect season. Atlanta appears to have significant advantages in the running game led by Michael Turner and on the perimeter with their athletic receivers. Despite ranking 31st in run defense, the Colts match up well against a Falcons offensive line that has been largely inconsistent this season. The Colts defensive end, Freeney and Mathis pose sizable problems in pass protection of the Falcons offensive line. The Colts will use a score of zone blitzes to not just stop the run, but to put immediate pressure on Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. With eight men in the box looking to attack run gaps, using play action pass is of little help for Ryan. The play action is designed to 'freeze' the linebackers and make the safeties 'bite' on the run play. When the scheme is all-out pressure the play action only gives the Colts defense more time to get right into Ryan's grill. The focal point of the Colts offense will be to get the running game established. They will do this with a heavy dose of TE Dallas Clark catching balls in the short-middle. I believe that Clark could have as many as 10 catches today and this in turn will open up the 'A' gap for the running game to have success. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 74-34 ATS record for 68% winners since 1983. Play on - dogs or pick after seven or more consecutive losses with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting they are just 2-10 ATS losing 9.0 units when facing very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Colts.
Michael Alexander
Green Bay Packers vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers +6
SAN DIEGO is 22-7-3 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November
SAN DIEGO is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Jack Jones
Redskins/49ers UNDER 38
This is going to be the defensive battle of the day Sunday. The Washington Redskins are struggling mightily defensively, while the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league. Like the Redskins, the 49ers lack explosive plays offensively.
San Francisco ranks 23rd in total offense. The 49ers are only averaging 309.0 total yards/game. Washington ranks 19th in total offense. The Redskins are averaging 320.3 yards/game.
The 49ers are only giving up 15.3 points/game and 329.1 yards/game. The Redskins are allowing 19.9 points/game and 343.6 yards/game. Washington is also scoring just 16.6 points/game.
The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The UNDER is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA –104 over Dallas
Once again the Stars avoided a loss when they were badly outplayed on Friday night against Colorado. Dallas has a genie following them around these days and it’s worth repeating that they simply cannot maintain this winning percentage (75%) by being outplayed every game. The Stars are being bombarded in their own end and that takes a heavy toll both mentally and physically. Carolina is coming of a 5-1 loss at home to Washington. That was its second 5-1 loss in three games. They also lost both times to these Stars last year so one has to figure them to be in a foul mood this afternoon. The Stars are going good and certainly there’s no sense of urgency for this one. It’s a matinee game, which also has to favor the Canes and it’s also worth noting that Dallas has games against Washington, Pitt and Detroit on deck next week. The Stars are a badly flawed team that is “top-heavy” with a slow and very average defense. That winning percentage is going to see a correction and thus, the Stars are a good fade team. This is only a play if Cam Ward starts for Carolina. Play: Carolina -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Chuck O'Brien
On to your complimentary winner, off of last night's easy cover with 42-point underdog UNLV, which got it done at home against Boise State. That line was ridiculous, and so it today's with the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. I am still at odds with the sports books that give the San Diego Chargers the respect they continually get. Perhaps today, lightning will strike and everyone will finally see the Bolts aren't as electric as people think.
Between quarterback Philip Rivers' miscues, and coach Norv Turner's bad decisions, the Chargers are in for a world of hurt against the explosive Packers, who bring their fourth-ranked offensive unit to Southern California off a bye week. That will spells trouble for a Chargers defense that has given up 74 points the last three games, albeit all on the road, and is seemingly in a downward spiral after watching last Monday's game in Kansas City.
You mix a short week after a Monday night road loss, with the world champs coming to town undefeated. Yeah, that's a recipe for disaster.
Though the Packers have the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL, it takes inept offenses like San Diego's to make a stop unit like that look dominant. You wouldn't know it on paper, as the Chargers have the sixth-best offense in the league, but scroll down to the turnovers and you'll see why this team has lost two straight. It's tied for eighth with 12 fumbles, (5 were lost) is tied for second with 11 interceptions and drops to 20th with 16 touchdowns overall. That's a touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 16 versus 16. That's not impressive.
I am well aware of the fact the Packers have, maybe, three quality wins on the year: New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta; and the rest have been against Kansas City, Carolina, Denver, St. Louis and Minnesota, but it doesn't take away from the fact that Aaron Rodgers is the No. 3 quarterback in the league with 2,372 yards. He's, in a word, flawless. Or, as close as you can come to it, as he's fired for 20 touchdowns - that's four more than the entire Chargers team - and only three interceptions. His passer rating is 125.7, more than 20 points higher than second-place Tom Brady (104.4).
The 7-0 Packers, who have covered six of their last eight on the road dating back to last season, are just too precise as a team. And in going against the injury-depleted Chargers, I can't imagine them being any less than perfect thanks to last week's rest. Coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers have had two weeks to game-plan, and undoubtedly were tuned in last Monday to watch Kansas City diffuse the Bolts.
If there were ever a time for Green Bay's now-healthy defense to step up and make a statement, this is the game. I'll take the defending champs here, as the Chargers fizzle to their third-straight loss, and drop to .500 on the season.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Matt Rivers
Sunday free play winner is to stay under the total in the Cleveland-Houston game from Reliant Stadium.
I just don't see the points adding up with these two teams on the gridiron.
For one thing, Cleveland comes into this game having scored 17-points or less in six of their seven games this season, while Houston has allowed just 21 total points in their last pair of games.
For the season, the Browns have stayed under the total in each of their last three games, and are averaging just over 15-points per game for the 2011 campaign.
Houston's defense has gotten a significant boost under coordinator Wade Phillips, as the Texans have allowed two touchdowns or less in five of their eight games this season. Not surprisingly, Houston is 6-2 under the posted price through the first half of the season this year.
Points stay hard to come by in this game, take the under in the Browns-Texans game.
3♦ UNDER
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills at home to cover against the New York Jets.
I am not sold on the New York Jets, after losing three games, they get what is essentially a bye week with a win over Miami and got a Philip Rivers gift-wrapped INT win over the San Diego Chargers.
Both of those games were at home. They go on the road to face the Bills.
Ralph Wilson Stadium is starting to resemble the home field advantage the Bills had in the early 90s. Talking to some people back in Buffalo and the frenzy has returned.
The Bills will try to take away the Jets’ running game and make quarterback Mark Sanchez beat them. If that happens, it will not bode well for the Jets. They have to run the ball to be effective.
The Bills are one of the feel-good stories of the season. More than that, they are playing good football.
What makes them difficult to play is that they are a balanced team. They have running back Fred Jackson and rush the ball for 140 yards a game. But with emerging QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, they throw for 240 yards for a total of 380 offense a game.
You can’t focus on one aspect of the Bills offense or they will burn with the other part. The Bills will have too much offense for the Jets to keep pace.
3♦ BILLS
FREE NFL PLAY FOR 11/6/2011: We're siding with the New England Patriots -8.5 at home over the NY Giants. We faded New England last week, giving up points in Pittsburgh. But the Patriots are showing excellent value here, coming off that loss to the Steelers. Bill Belichick is one of the best in the business at studying, diagnosing, and correcting mistakes. And, his club is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss. A return home to Gillette Stadium is probably just what the Patriots needed to ensure covering by two scores or better today. New England has won 20 straight at home now, and 31 in a row with Brady at the helm. The Giants will be so banged up on the offensive side of the ball, they might even make the Patriot Defense look good today. New York will be without: Top RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Hakeem Nicks, and most importantly starting Center David Baas. We expect the Giants to have trouble scoring with a backup center, and in this hostile environment. And if you study the Giants schedule you'll find their wins coming from soft teams. They are 0-4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning records. What is going to be interesting about todays game (besides that it's a rematch from Super Bowl XLII) is the comments made by Eli Manning over the Summer stating that he thinks he is in the same elite class as Tom Brady. We expect Brady to respond to those statements today on the field, possibly having one of his best games of the year. We'll lay the points to side with the home chalk in this one. Patriots -8.5. Our Free Plays are documented and are currently 125-68-1. Sign up now to receive our free picks via email.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Seattle Seahawks +11.5
The Seahawks showed they are capable of going on the road and collecting a big win when they won at the NY Giants a few weeks back. Plus, Dallas has been one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL in recent years. The Cowboys are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Also, keep in mind that 11 of Dallas' last 13 games have been decided by 4 points or less. We'll take the points.