Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 7,2010

Nelly

Tampa Bay + over Atlanta

Tampa Bay has the best record in the NFC at 5-2 and while statistically the numbers do not add up the Buccaneers have been a resilient squad and QB Josh Freeman is building a reputation as a clutch late game performer. Tampa Bay is -27 in point differential this season as four of five wins have come by three points or less. Atlanta is also 5-2 to tie the Buccaneers on top of the NFC South and the Falcons have had some good fortune as well also with several close wins. Both defenses are allowing over 350 yards per game so this could be a high scoring game and the rested Falcons are not a safe play even off the bye week.

Marc Lawrence

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have become ‘Kings of the Road’ in the NFL under Tony Sparano. Check out the numbers of life on the road with Miami’s most famous hitchhiker: 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS off win and 9-0 ATS when taking points. And as we’ve been reporting on these pages, the Big Thumb is now 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS taking points on the highway from Game Four out. Meanwhile, the Ravens awake off their Bye Week knowing they were outgained by 142 yards in a 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo prior to the break. The Black Birds also know they have cashed in only six of the last 18 tries as favorites in games off a win/no-cover. Until the Fish start singing a different tune, we’ll continue to travel with the four-bit King of the Road. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Hollywood Sports

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

Expect a letdown from the Colts after their big Monday Night Football win against AFC South rival Houston Texans. Traveling is always difficult for teams on a short week. Even worse for the Colts (5-2), they continue to get hit by the injury bug as now defensive end Robert Mathis and running back Michael Hart are likely out for this game. Philadelphia (4-3) returns to play off their bye week where Andy Reid has overseen four straight point spread covers with the extra week to prepare. Michael Vick -- and his sterling 108.8 QB Rating this season -- returns to take the snaps. He should be very effective against a depleted Colts' defense that allows 25.5 PPG along with 386.5 total YPG when on the road. Philly is playing tough defense themselves as they are holding teams to just 295 total YPG and just 173 passing YPG when at home. Peyton Manning is likely to get little help from his injury-riddled backfield. As it is, Indy averages only 73 yards on the ground when on the road. Reid's Eagles are very tough in spots like this as they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as a small favorite of a field goal or less. Lay the points with the Eagles.

Vernon Croy

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Miami Dolphins +5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Ravens barely got past the 0-7 Buffalo Bills at home last week. Miami looks to build on a big road win last week against the Bengals and the week before that they lost by just 1 point at home against a very solid Pittsburgh Steelers team. Miami is good enough defensively to keep this game close Sunday. The Dolphins opponents are averaging just 13.5 points per game against them on the road this season while the Ravens defense has given up an average of 22.7 ppg at home this season. Miami is 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog and they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog on the road. The Underdog and the road team are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played between these two teams.

Matt Fargo

San Diego Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Play: San Diego Chargers -3

We won a ticket with San Diego last week and we will ride them again this week at a smaller play. The Chargers have showed they are one of the best teams in the NFL but were unable to pick up win because of turnovers, special teams gaffes and redzone failures. It was not easy last week but San Diego rallied against the Titans as it outgained Tennessee by 86 yards and snapped a three-game losing skid. Now the Chargers will be looking for their first road win. Houston enters this game on a short week, having played Monday night in Indianapolis and it came away on the short end of the final score against the Colts. That was a big game for the Texans and some were calling it the biggest game in franchise history as they were going for the season sweep against the Colts as well as a win in Indianapolis, neither of which they had never done. While they will want to bounce back here, I feel the letdown aspect of last week’s game is going to show more. Three weeks in St. Louis marked the first time this season that the Chargers were outgained and that was only by 13 total yards. They have outgained every other foe and it is near impossible to find a team that is 3-5 yet leads the NFL in both total offense and total defense but that is where San Diego finds itself. That proves this team is much better than its record indicates and the fact that Chargers are 0-4 on the road should provide even more of a motivational spot this week. The Texans are a solid team on offense but Andre Johnson is not at full strength right now and that is a problem against the Chargers defense. On the other side, the injury list for San Diego is enormous but this was the case last week and the Chargers are finding ways to get it done on offense. Now they get to face a horrible defense as the Texans are ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 404.1 ypg, the only team in the league allowing more than 400 yards. The passing defense, despite San Diego being short-handed should get lit up here. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for 2,649 yards which is more than any quarterback in history after eight games. He is well on a pace to throw for 5,298 yards, which would shatter Dan Marino's record of 5,084 yards. The Texans have the worst passing defense in the NFL as they are allowing 299.4 ypg while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.1 percent of their passes and post a 103.7 passer rating. The Texans have struggled in the past against good rushing defenses as they are 0-9 ATS under head coach Gary Kubiak against teams that are allowing 90 or fewer yards on the ground, while getting outscored by 12.2 ppg in the process. San Diego is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of a field goal or less and the Chargers are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games against the AFC South. The first road win for San Diego finally takes place this Sunday. 3* San Diego Chargers

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Cardinals @ Vikings
PICK: Over 41

Arizona has big time playmakers in its offense including Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston; the Cards have proven that they can insert almost anyone at QB and these talented pro-bowl receivers are still a serious threat to defenses around the league.

Last week Arizona lost 38-35 at home to Tampa Bay; it's obvious that putting points on the board isn't this teams biggest problem.

As good as it is on the offensive side of the ball, it's important to note that Arizona is as equally adept at giving up points to its opposition; 144-total points over its last 5-games.

There is no question that the Cardinals have a lot of questions on both sides of the ball, however, consider this: Arizona is 3-4 SU; Seattle leads the NFC West at 4-3 and has a tough game at home against the surging New York Giants this week; the Rams are 4-4 with a difficult game on the road against hungry 2-6 division rival San Francisco.

Despite all of the issues they've struggled through thus far, a victory here over a reeling 2-5 Vikings team could very well see them tied for the NFC West division lead.

After watching the Cowboys fold up their tent last week and let the Jaguars move back to .500 on the season, and after their impressive offensive performance from a week ago, this team has to like its chances in also pulling off a road-upset.

While I don't have a strong read on a side ATS here, I believe it's safe to say that Ken Whisenhunt will be pulling out all the stops in an attempt to also move his team back to the even mark for the year.

Important to note here that not only has the total gone "over" the number in 5 of Arizona's last 6 overall, but that it's also seen it sail above the number in 4 of its last 6 on the road.

On the other side of the field: I played the New England Patriots last Sunday and they hobbled the struggling Vikes 28-18.

Minnesota had a game plan last week; establish Adrian Peterson early and often; now more than ever they'll have to lean on their work-horse.

Certainly that won't change this week against the Cards porous line; whoever it is that ends up getting the start under center should also enjoy a big day against the visitors suspect secondary.

Keep in mind that the Vikes have seen the total go "over" the number in 4 of their last 5 overall.

Bottom line: Also interesting to note that in 4 of these teams last 5 vs. each other at the Metrodome, the total has indeed also gone "over" the number.

I believe this number is too low when you take all of the above information into account; you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this situation.

LARRY NESS

Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalo returns "home" (actually will play in Toronto) after two straight overtime losses on the road against Baltimore and Kansas City. At 0-7, the Bills remain the lone winless team in the NFL and isn't it about time the Bills get off the scheid? Give Chan Gailey credit; he has not stood pat with the team he started the year with. He benched QB Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has turned out to be a much better downfield passer. He oversaw the trade of MarShawn Lynch and re-established the veteran Fred Jackson as the starting RB (CJ Spiller is struggling in his rookie season with pass protection and other responsibilities expected of NFL RBs). He has also scrapped the 3-4 defense and returned to the 4-3 scheme that Buffalo played last season. As a result, his team is still playing hard with hope for the future. Over their last three games, the Bills offense has averaged 23.3 PPG along with 382.7 total YPG. Fitzpatrick is orchestrating a passing attack that is totaling 256.3 YPG over that span as well. He should be able to move the ball against a suspect Bears secondary that is allowing 216 passing YPG. Despite their 4-3 record, the Bears look to be the team moving in the wrong direction. Coming off their bye week, they have had two weeks to ponder their 17-14 loss at home to the Redskins which seemed to encapsulate the basic problems with this team. QB Jay Cutler threw another four interceptions in that game (all to DeAngelo Hall). In his two seasons in Chicago, Cutler has accounted for a simply intolerable 37 turnovers. Yet, he claims that had he to do it over, he would have still targeted Hall like he did all day in that game against the Redskins. We know, Jay, believe me, we know. It comes as no surprise that Cutler is 19-40-1 ATS in his NFL career (don't foregt, he was also 11-35 SU in his career at Vandy). Despite the close game, offensive coordinator Mike Martz kept on drawing up more and more passing plays for Cutler. The Bears threw the ball 40 times but only ran the ball 16 times. In theory for this week, the Bears should be dialing up plenty of running plays against the Buffalo defense which is last in the NFL by allowing 188.7 rushing YPG (although the shift back to the 4-3 should help). In practice, who really thinks Martz will abandon his infatuation with the forward pass? Granted, Martz has a Super Bowl ring and I don't but I never had the chance to coach Kurt Warner, either. The fact remains that in Martz's last two stints as offensive coordinator, at San Francisco and Detroit, neither ended well. Frankly, it looks as if he is heading down the same path now in Chicago, as well. The Bears have only covered ONCE in their last six games as a favorite. While this game is being played in Toronto, the Bills should still enjoy a partisan crowd. Throw out the records. Buffalo is playing better football than Chicago as of late. I expect them to win this game straight up (but will be happy with a cover).

TEDDY COVERS

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Arizona Cardinals +7.5

I could do this write-up in a single sentence – Minnesota has no business as a favorite in this price range, even against weaker foes. The Vikings are a 2-5 football team. Their offense has yet to produce more than 24 points in any of their first seven games. Their defense is collapsing, allowing 28+ three times in the last four week, with injuries mounting in the secondary.

Minnesota’s internal issues made front page headlines on Friday when embattled head coach Brad Childress and star receiver Percy Harvin engaged in a nasty shouting match at practice. Their only previous wins this season came in tight, competitive games against the 1-6 Cowboys and the 2-5 Lions. This is not a team capable of blowing opponents off the field these days, and certainly not a team that should be laying more than a touchdown to anybody!

Arizona spent the entire offseason trying to figure out how to run the football, after spending the previous two seasons eschewing the run while relying on Kurt Warner’s big arm. In their two games since the bye week, the Cardinals have finally been able to run effectively, with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower moving the chains. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the switch back to the veteran Derek Anderson at QB this week, after Max Hall threw a pair of pick sixes last Sunday. Expect the Anderson//Wells/Hightower trio to keep Arizona competitive here, right through the final gun. 2* Take Arizona.

Info Plays

3* on Seattle Seahawks +7

Reasons the Seahawks cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road favorites (NY GIANTS) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This is a 38-12 ATS System hitting 76% over the last 10 seasons.

2.) Seattle is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 14.7 PPG. The Seahawks are a completely different team at home, where their 12th man is the best in the league as it's one of the most hostile crowds in the NFL. The Giants are giving up 27.7 PPG on the road this season and will have a very hard time winning this game, let alone winning by more than a touchdown. Bet the Seahawks at home.

Ross Benjamin

New Orleans @ Carolina
Play: Carolina +7

Any division home underdog of 8.5 or less that has a winning percentage of .156 or less, they are playing with revenge, they are coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus an opponent coming off of a home favorite ATS win who has at least one SU loss on the season, and they covered that previous game by 27.0 or less is 10-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The underdog has won all 10 of those games outright by an average of 6.7 PPG.

Carlo Campanella

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: New Orleans Saints -6½

Carolina (1-6) has won only one game this season mainly due to their offensive troubles which have them averaging just 12 points per game this season. Carolina Head Coach John Fox decided that rookie QB Jimmy Clausen wasn't ready to lead the offense and switched back to QB Matt Moore, who passed for 194 yards while leading the Panthers to a meaningless fourth quarter Touchdown during last week's 20-10 loss to the Rams. That loss marked the 4th time in 7 games that these Panthers have been held to 10 points or less and that lack of ball control will be especially costly against Saint's QB Drew Breese, who can score points in a hurry. While the Saints (5-3) aren't scoring points like they did last season, they are still a formidable offensive unit that's averaging 21 points per game. The Saints have now won 2 of their last 3 games and gained their confidence back on Monday Night Football after beating a very tough Steeler's squad, 20-10. Expect the Saints to move forward off that victory in Carolina this Sunday, so we're laying the points with this improved Saints' crew as we find QB Breese at 16-7 ATS in the road favorite role.

Wunderdog

NY Jets vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +4½

Many feel the Jets will come out breathing fire in this one after getting shut out last week, and take out their frustrations on the Lions. I am sure New York will score here, but I am not sure they will stop Detroit from doing the same. Don't look now, but the Detroit Lions’ young offense is beginning to gel, averaging 31.8 points per game over their last four games. They have scored 20+ in five of their last six games and are averaging 38 points per game at home. The Jets’ defense is certainly good, but it's not performing the way it did last year, especially defending the pass. The problem for New York is that Detroit isn't a running team, but passes for over 250 yards per game - right into the vulnerability of the Jets’ defense - and Calvin Johnson has proven to be an unstoppable beast this season. The Lions have now gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with a winning record and they can score enough here to be in this one all the way. I like Detroit plus the points.

Bob Wingerter

Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia
Play: Under 46½

The Total is relatively high because of the offensive capabilities, but these are two underrated defenses, especially against the pass. If either side has a punishing running game that can soften up the opposing defensive front with a constant pounding that helps set up pass plays, they’ve each done a good job of hiding it for a while now. Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 and 4-0 in Colts last 4 games in Week 9. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games in Week 9.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA –3 +1.10 over Indianapolis

We prefer Kevin Kolb over Michael Vick but how can anyone question Andy Reid? Isn’t football all about match-ups and we’re assuming that Reid likes Vicks legs over Kolb’s’ arm in this particular match-up. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and under Reid the Eagles have won 11 straight after the bye. More incredibly, Reid is 40-38 lifetime before the bye and 72-32 after his intermission week. Now the rested Eagles will play a banged up Colts squad that’s coming off a huge Monday night win over Houston and traveling on a short week. That’s a low-percentage angle for any team the and while you can never count out Peyton Manning, one can’t ignore the fact that the Colts are just not as strong as they’ve been in previous years. They’ve had a very easy road schedule (Houston, Denver, Jacksonville, Washington) and lost to both Jax and Houston. They had a three-point win in Washington and a 27-13 win over Denver. They have not played a single team in the upper echelon of the league and they have some key AFC match-ups coming up in the next few weeks that include Cincinnati, New England and San Diego. Philly has won three of its four road games this season and they also whacked the Falcons in its last game at home before the bye. More than all of that, however, is once again that Andy Reid is 11-0 after the bye and that sticks out and it can’t be a coincidence or fluke. Play: Philadelphia –3 +1.10 (Risking 2 units).

MINNESOTA –8 over Arizona

Brett Favre is exactly like Randy Moss in that they both need more attention than a two-year-old. Favre goes about it a little more subtly and that’s the only difference between the two. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, a team that Favre knows he can once again look like a hero against. He’s been battered and criticized all season long and this is the week he can silent the critics and read about how great he is after the game. Adrian Peterson will tear up this soft run defense and everything will be right again for at least a week in Minnesota. The Cards are not a bad team; they’re a putrid one. All of its three wins has been pure luck. When they beat the Chargers 30-20 the offense didn’t score a single TD. Its other two wins came against the Rams in week one and the Raiders in week three and the latter was also a fluke. The Cards run defense ranks 29th, its pass defense ranks 23rd, its offense ranks 28th overall and they don’t travel well. They’ve already lost 41-7 and 38-10 on the road and they’re even worse when they have to travel to a different time zone. The Vikes have played New England, Green Bay, Dallas and the Jets over the last four weeks and they take a huge step down in class when facing this pathetic offense and even worse defense. This has blowout written all over it and anything less than a 24-point win would be a complete shocker. If you make just one wager this week, this should be it. Play: Minnesota –8 (Risking 3.06 units to win 3).

CLEVELAND +4½ over New England

Laying road points in this league is always a risk and this one brings even more risk simply because when you play the Patriots, you’re almost always going to pay a premium to do so. At first glance the Patriots look like a strong play and you can be damn sure that the “squares” will be all over them this week, especially when you throw in the Belichick vs Mangini angle. Thing is, the odds makers are fully aware of the public’s propensity to wager on the Pats and they didn’t make a soft line. Fact is, the Patriots are coming off four intense games in a row that started on a Monday night vs Miami and continued in successive weeks against Baltimore, at San Diego and last week vs the Vikes. Also note that the Patriots have the Steelers on deck next Sunday night in prime time. Meanwhile the Brownies are just 2-5 but they’ve had an extremely difficult schedule. Its last six games have come against Kansas City, Baltimore, Cinci, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. They’ve been in every single game and probably should’ve won at least three of those. They’re coming off a road win in New Orleans and QB Colt McCoy is getting better with each passing quarter. The Brownies are on the verge of being a playoff contender and a real threat. Everything is coming together for them slowly but surely. Give us the points in a favorable situation and don’t be a bit surprised of these Brownies win outright. Play: Cleveland +4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).