RANDALL THE HANDLE
BEST BETS
Colts (5-2) at Eagles (4-3)
It’s not often we get to back the Colts taking points. This will be the first time this season that such an opportunity is presented. Even so, we’re not taking the bait. Indianapolis comes of a huge revenge game against Houston, allowing Indy sole possession of first place in AFC South. Battered and bruised, the Colts must travel on a short week to play a rested Philadelphia squad that is fresh off its break. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles have won 11 straight after the bye. More incredibly, Reid is 40-38 lifetime before the bye and 72-32 after his intermission week. TAKING: EAGLES –3 Sports Interaction
Cardinals (3-4) at Vikings (2-5)
If media, football fans and opposing teams were school students, they’d be in some serious trouble for bullying. Seems everyone is pushing around the Vikings these days but despite their abysmal record, their clumsy coach, their deteriorating quarterback and the recent Randy Moss ordeal, they are mysteriously anointed as a 9-pt favourite. That’s due largely in part to Minnesota’s difficult schedule and more importantly, the caliber of play that these Cardinals bring to town. Arizona ranks way down on both sides of ball and have been outscored in previous three road games by a 104-27 count. TAKING: VIKINGS –8 Sports Interaction
Patriots (6-1) at Browns (2-5)
Consider this the obligatory Belichick vs. Mangini reference. That out of the way, we’ll look for a spirited effort by a Cleveland team that has had an extra week to prepare for this one while being fueled off the confidence builder that had Cleveland knocking off the champion Saints. The Brownies defence has been essential in allowing Cleveland to cover in eight of past 11 when taking points. This will also be the Browns’ first home game in a month while New England will travel here in first of consecutive away contests, with Steelers awaiting arrival next week. TAKING: BROWNS +4½ Sports Interaction
THE REST:
Chargers (3-5) at Texans (4-3)
It’s one thing for the Chargers to be spotting a field-goal when playing at home. It’s a completely other matter to have them giving away anything when traveling. San Diego has yet to win on the road this season with four losses having occurred against lesser quality squads than this host. TAKING: TEXANS +3
Saints (5-3) at Panthers (1-6)
If the Saints are serious about defending their title, they will have to take care of business against these types. Despite defeating Panthers in an earlier contest, it was by narrowest of margins with that one being played in New Orleans. Carolina knows tendencies of visitor well enough to stay close again. TAKING: PANTHERS +6½
Buccaneers (5-2) at Falcons (5-2)
The Buccaneers 5-2 start looks impressive but we must not be granting too much praise. Tampa’s wins have come against teams that are 12-24 combined while its two losses have come by a combined 69-19 against the Steelers and Saints respectively Atlanta has yet to lose at home. TAKING: FALCONS –8½
Bears (4-3) vs. Bills (0-7) @ Toronto
Bills could be spent here after two overtime losses, both on the road. Now they will play a third game away from home while the Bears will have had an extra week’s rest. Despite Chicago’s propensity for giveaways, Bills have a league-low one interception in addition to being dead last in run defence. TAKING: BEARS –2½
Jets (5-2) at Lions (2-5)
It’s difficult to spot road points with a team that relies mainly on defence and a grinding ground game to earn its wins. That style could fail the Jets miserably if these suddenly-potent Lions tally anywhere near their home average of 37.6 points per game. Lions remain top pointspread team in league. TAKING: LIONS +4½
Dolphins (4-3) at Ravens (5-2)
Win or lose, it’s difficult not to endorse the Dolphins here. While we respect the Ravens, we can’t ignore Miami’s prowess as a road team with six straight covers or its aptitude as an underdog with 10 covers in past 11 when taking points. Baltimore has had hands full with all AFC East foes. TAKING: DOLPHINS +5
Giants (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)
Even though the Seahawks offer very little, Qwest Field has suddenly become football’s Bermuda Triangle. Visiting offences and defences have disappeared to a combined 80-36 thus far with Seattle capturing all three played here. Giants are solid but could be a bit rusty after rest and long trip. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +6½
Chiefs (5-2) at Raiders (4-4)
The last time these two met in a meaningful game, Al Davis had a face. Both have surprised this season after years of ineptitude but we have more faith in the Chiefs than the erratic Raiders. Oakland’s quarterback situation remains unsteady and Kansas City’s ground game should take advantage of Raiders iffy run stoppers. TAKING: CHIEFS +2½
Cowboys (1-6) at Packers (5-3)
League schedulers were probably all giddy when penciling this one in. Oops. In fairness, no one could have predicted the Cowboys being this bad. That places them in a price range that they haven’t seen in awhile and combined with Green Bay’s lengthy injury list, we’ll accept the generous points. TAKING: COWBOYS +8
Steelers (5-2) at Bengals (2-5)
Steelers seeking to avenge a Bengals sweep of them a year ago. Cincinnati’s defence has plenty of leaks including a feeble pass rush that has just six sacks on the year. Pittsburgh’s aerial game should get back on track after meek effort in New Orleans. Steelers have failed to cover just once in past nine visits here. TAKING: STEELERS –4½
EZWINNERS
Cleveland Browns +4
Nice spot here for the Browns who are coming off of a bye week, while the Pats are coming off of a big game against Randy Moss and the Vikings and they have a look ahead game with the Steelers up next. Browns head coach Eric Mangini knows how to game plan against his former boss and the extra time will do wonders for rookie quarterback Colt McCoy who will be making his third straight start. The Patriots defense is still a work in progress and can be exploited by the Browns powerful running back Peyton Hillis which should set up some nice play action spots for McCoy against a Patriots secondary that is allowing a 70% completion rate this year. New England has never successfully defended against the Wildcat formation and Josh Cribbs also adds that dimension to the Cleveland attack. Cleveland is actually the team with the better defense in this game and I will back them as a live home dog here as the Browns are on a 10-3 run against the spread. Home dogs have been hitting at a 58% rate this season and I expect that to continue here. Take the points.
Chip Chirimbes
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +7
This is my NFL All-Ugly Play of the Week. These two met five weeks ago in New Orleans where the 13-point favorite Saints eked out a 16-14 win and for the Panthers it was their first 'cover' of the season. Carolina believe it or not is 6-1 against the points in the series last seven games and with Matt Moore back leading the charge (?) and DeAngelo Williams set to return the Panthers with the points and home field get the nod.
JR O'Donnell
DET / NYJ Over 42
You can count on few things Sunday boys and Rex Ryan's crew the New York Jets will not get shut is one of them! The Detroit Lions do own a nice defensive front that really gets after the Qb, but coach Rex Ryan is really not concerned as the Jets "Possess" in our opinion the Best O line in the NFL! Look at some of the #'s that Lions have put up @ home! 32, 44, 37. They average 37.7 points in three home games and they are a flat out Over machine @ Ford Field. The Jets are a run oriented O crew and that will set up Sanchez for quick strikes. They average 153 yds on the ground, good for 3rd in the league! The Jets are 3-0 on the Road Over!! Denver, Buffalo & Miami!! The O'ster checks in with the power rating @ 45.6 points and that spells a Over
Jimmy Moore
New York Jets @ Detroit
Pick: N Y Jets -4
The Jets are very red faced coming off of the shut out loss at home to Green Bay and the Lions will provide the perfect tonic for them to get better. Detroit's defensive line has been much stronger than expected but they are much better pass rushers than run defenders so expect the Jets to run at them all day long. Also the Jets defense may not be as good as last year but look for their big time corners to throttle Calvin Johnson and keep the Lions from any big plays. Lay this very reasonable number with the Jets.
MTi Sports
NY Jets at Lions
Play: Over
The Jets are 8-0 OU (+20.5 ppg) when the line is within 3.5 of pick and their ATS margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Lions are 13-0 OU (+9.2 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date. Take these two OVER.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Miami is off to one of the most stunning starts we've ever seen to any NFL season, going 4-0 SU/ATS on the road, but 0-3 SU/ATS at home. Look for that dichotomy to end, at least on the road end of things Sunday at Baltimore. The Ravens have crushed the Fish the last two meetings, winning by 16 and 14 points respectively. They have covered 11 of 16 in the home favorite role and looking back further, the team is 29-19 ATS here when laying seven points or less. Coming off the bye week helps.
Play on: Baltimore
Steve Merril
Patriots vs. Browns
Play: Over 43.5
Struggling teams usually perform well after a bye week, especially on offense, as the extra preparation time allows them to make adjustments and fix problems. This will be particularly true for the Cleveland Browns who have a young rookie quarterback, Colt McCoy, making only his third career start this week. McCoy has actually played well in his first two regular season games and has averaged 6.0 yards per passing play (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppp). McCoy should have continued success today against a suspect New England pass defense that is allowing 70% completions and 7.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 60% and 6.6 ypp). New England will also have success on offense in this game as the Patriots are averaging 29.3 points per game and 5.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow just 21.6 ppg and 5.3 yppl). New England has been particularly strong thru the air as they average 65.3% completions and 6.8 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 58.4% and 6.4 ypp). This is a favorable matchup against a suspect Cleveland secondary that permits 7.3 yards per pass this year (versus opponents that average only 6.6 ypp). We expect a high-scoring game here so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Patriots and Browns this afternoon.
Craig Trapp
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: New York Giants -7
If Hassleback was playing would love to take the points but this sack happy defense of the NYG is not one for a backup qb. Great run game of the Giants has sit up some really big plays for Nicks, and think will continue to see that same. SEA defense has been tore up including a beat down by OAK last week.
Rob Vinciletti
New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +3.5
The Patriots apply to a negative system here today that has a 53-18 record. What we want to do is play against road favorites that have won 4 or more in a row, but lost their game prior to the streak on the road. The Patriots are on a nice win streak. Today they take on a rested Browns team that pulled the biggest upset of the year in their last game. They knocked off the Saints as a 14 point road dog. The Patriots are just 1-4 ats vs an opponent with rest and the Browns are 6-0 ats home vs teams that are .666 or better and 8-1 ats vs thr AFC East. The Patriots are around 40 yards better on offense and the Browns are 30 yards better on defense. Look for the Browns to get the cover today.
BIG AL
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions +5.5
Last week, the Jets lost 9-0 to the Green Bay Packers, and that result surprised me, as I thought the Jets would be able to run right through Green Bay’s Swiss Cheese rush defense. The Jets did get 119 yards on 29 carries, for 4 yards a rush, so they weren’t wholly ineffective, but it was pretty incredible they didn’t score a single point in the game. On the one hand, .500 or better teams react very well off an upset shut out loss, as they cover the spread 62 percent of the time, including 73% vs. losing teams. That being said, I’m not sure I want any part of New York here, as they fall into a negative system of mine which has a record of 38-69 ATS, and that system goes against road favorites of -9 points or less, with a win percentage of .535 or greater, that scored 10 points or less in their previous game. I’ll take Detroit + the points in this contest.
Ross Benjamin
New Orleans @ Carolina
Play : Carolina +7.0
Any division home underdog of 8.5 or less that has a winning percentage of .156 or less, they are playing with revenge, they are coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus an opponent coming off of a home favorite ATS win who has at least one SU loss on the season, and they covered that previous game by 27.0 or less is 10-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The underdog has won all 10 of those games outright by an average of 6.7 PPG.
Tom Freese
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland is 4-4 straight up this year. The Raiders are 17-36 ATS their last 53 home games. Oakland is 1-11 ATS their last 12 games as home favorites. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in Week 9 and they are 5-16 ATS their last 21 games as favorites. Kansas City is 5-2 straight up this year. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS their last 7 games with Oakland. The Chiefs 7-3 ATS their last 10 games after scoring less 15 points in their last game. The road team in this series is 19-6-1 ATS the last 26 meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
While we are generally hesitant to lay big points in the NFL, this looks like a prime spot for an absolute blowout. The Cardinals gave up 38 points last week and they were at home against Tampa Bay. Now, Arizona has to go on the road and face an angry Vikings team that fell short at New England last week. Minnesota needs a huge win to try and start their upward track back up the standings. Yes, it's been a very disappointing season for Minnesota thusfar but we look for the release of Randy Moss to trigger a response from this club. A no-nonsense, workmanlike approach to this game means the Vikes take care of business as they use their strength in the trenches to dominate the line of scrimmage.
While the Vikes season has been rough, let's also not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals season has truly been a disaster thusfar. Their offense finally got on track last week and then they failed to stop the Bucs offense. It was a disheartening loss at home and it sets the stage for a letdown spot here as the Cards season continues to unravel. Note that Arizona is just 2-5 ATS in all games the last three seasons where the posted total is between 35.5 and 42 points. As for the Minnesota, they are 6-2 ATS in the month of November the last two seasons. Also, over the last three seasons combined, the Vikings are a perfect 3-0 ATS when they enter a game with a losing streak of two games or more in progress. Consider a small play on Minnesota minus the big points on Sunday afternoon.
Tony George
Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
This game between the Bills and Bears is in Toronto and like a home game for the Bills. OT losses against KC and Baltimore, both good teams finds me on Buffalo against a turnover prone offense with the Bears today. Not sold on Chicago and their offense or the scheme which puts Cutler throwing 2 to 3 ints a game. Buffalo far better than 0-7 record and they get their first win today by an improving QB in Fitzpatrick.