Robert Ferringo
Take ‘Under’ 52.0 Carolina at New Orleans
Let’s see if we can score by going against the grain. Over the past four years the 'under' has hit at nearly 80 percent and the 'under' is 22-7 in these situations over the last 29 trials. In fact, this year the ‘under’ is 2-1 against totals of 50.0 or higher and that includes a Saints game against Buffalo that stayed under by nearly three touchdowns. After the Saints erupted again on Monday Night Football for all the world to see the books will be getting all ‘over’ money on this game. But I think it could be a letdown spot after that big MNF football win. And even that game shouldn’t have gone ‘over’ with two defensive touchdowns pumping up the total. Carolina doesn't have nearly as strong of an offense as Atlanta does. But they managed 35 points last week so they are a bit inflated right now as well. And because the Panthers prefer to run the ball the clock should keep ticking. The ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and we’re going to “bet with the books” this w! eek and get on the side that you know they need as well.
Doc's Sports
Take Chicago -3 over Arizona
The Red Birds have some questionable losses on the season and some impressive wins. Last week they got blown out by Carolina, a team that is likely to make major changes once this season is completed. The Bears got healthy last week against Cleveland, winning that game, 30-6. This team needs to keep winning to stay two games behind the Vikings, a team they have yet to play this season. The weather should also play a factor, as the Birds do not like to travel north in November. The Bears need this game and they get it by double digits. They pressure QB Warner for sixty minutes and we collect big in the process as well.
Randall the Handle
THE BEST
Ravens @ Bengals
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Out of sight, out of mind may work to our advantage here. While Baltimore gets credit for ending its three-game skid with win over Denver last week, oddsmakers seem to be forgetting that Cincinnati dismantled the Bears by a 45-10 count prior to its break and that it has already defeated these Ravens on Baltimore’s turf less than a month ago. While the scoreboard read 17-14 for the visiting Bengals, the stats sheet was not nearly as close as Cincy dominated time of possession, first downs and yards gained both passing and rushing. This one is priced poorly.
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TAKING: Cincinnati +3 RISKING: 2.46 units to win 2
Cardinals @ Bears
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The Cardinals, not so long ago known for their road ineptitude, have suddenly reversed things by winning all three away games this season. After humiliating home loss to inferior Panthers last week, including an uncharacteristic five interceptions by QB Kurt Warner, Arizona figures to give the Bears much more than they bargained for. Chicago still has issues protecting its quarterback and if that doesn’t improve, this Arizona group averaging four sacks per road game, will make this a long day for the Bears offence.
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TAKING: Arizona +3 RISKING: 2.36 units to win 2
Cowboys @ Eagles
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First place in the division is at stake here as the NFC East is living up to its billing as a three-horse race. Based on current form, it’s difficult not to back the surging Cowboys receiving any points being offered. The much-maligned Tony Romo has elevated his game, throwing for eight touchdown and no interceptions in his past three matches. His passer rating has exceeded 100 in each of those contests. Philadelphia has the daunting task of knocking off three division rivals in consecutive weeks. We don’t see that happening.
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TAKING: Dallas +3 RISKING: 2.42 to win 2
THE REST
Pittsburgh @ Denver
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After being knocked from the undefeated ranks, we expect the Broncos to get right back to business. Another Litmus test awaits as the world champs come for a visit and while Pittsburgh has been good, they tend to take quality teams down to the wire.
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TAKING: Denver +3
Redskins @ Falcons
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The Falcons play their best ball right here in the Georgia Dome and after dropping a pair to quality opponents away from their own venue, we expect a huge bounce back. Washington’s defence is admirable but it can’t play offence.
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TAKING: Atlanta –10
Packers @ Buccaneers
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We’re hoping a European vacation helped the woeful Bucs. The Packers have been good against weaklings and Tampa certainly qualifies but playing at home, with a fresh quarterback and taking big points is enough to endorse the host.
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TAKING: Tampa Bay +10
Texans @ Colts
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Are the ascending Texans more sizzle than steak or are the Colts simply superior to most? Based on this number, the latter may apply but with Indianapolis compiling injuries and Houston’s track record against this foe, the visitor gets the call.
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TAKING: Houston +9
Chiefs @ Jaguars
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Jamaal Charles will replace troubled Larry Johnson in Kansas City’s backfield while newly acquired WR Chris Chambers will suit up for his new employers. Off the bye and taking several points to an uninspiring host has us leaning Chiefs.
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TAKING: Kansas City +6½
Dolphins @ Patriots
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The Jets went up and down the field on Miami last week but couldn’t close the deal. Give Tom Brady and his rested offence the same opportunity and this one gets away in a hurry. New England has won its last two by combined 94-7.
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TAKING: New England –10½
Panthers @ Saints
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Turnover prone Jake Delhomme will likely have to abandon proficient ground game and go aerial in this one. After completing just seven of 14 passes for 90 yards last week and having thrown 13 picks already, Delhomme will have his work cut out for him.
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TAKING: New Orleans -13 ½
Lions @ Seahawks
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Spotting points was far too foreign for the Lions and now they are right back where they belong, taking a slew of them. Having the Seahawks spot this many can’t be advised with their cluster of injuries.
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TAKING: Detroit +10
Titans @ 49ers
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Vince Young, if nothing else, gave the terrible Titans a much-needed lift in leading them to their first win of season. That alone points them in a better direction than the struggling 49ers, losers of three straight.
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TAKING: Tennessee +4
Chargers @ Giants
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Politicians and used car salesmen are more trustworthy than this pair. San Diego is not without its issues but New York’s are of greater concern in this one with the Giants inability to slow down good passing teams.
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TAKING: San Diego +4 ½
Doug Williams
Detroit +10 @ Seattle -10
The Hawks have a way of beating up on teams when they're at home, its uncanny how up and down this team plays, but they're due for a bounce back in Qwest field, thats just what they do. Seattle Covers -10
Tennessee +4 @ San Fran -4
the niners have lost most of the Moxy they started the season with, and look to be inches away from a tailspin. But of their losing record, its not been at home. San Fran Covers -4
San Diego +4.5 @ NYG -4.5
The Giants are a mess, they were a power ranked juggernaugh to start the season, and racked off 5 in a row before completely imploding. The Chargers, who come into every season with the most talent, simply LOVE to let down gamblers in this spot. Giants Cover -4.5
Pitts -3 @ Denver +3
The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, and guess what? It won be their last. Injury depleted or not, the Broncos do not have an answer for this pass rush and seconday, Orton has another Orton day. Pittsburgh Covers -3
WUNDERDOG
Carolina at New Orleans
Pick: Under 51.5
The Saints have been looking like a team that has the Super Bowl in their sights as they have been unstoppable on offense and have a defense that is underrated. The Saints come into this one a perfect 7-0 on the season. Carolina, after a 0-3 start, have rebounded by winning three of their last four games behind an improving defense. After getting torched for an average of 33 ppg in their first two games, the Panthers have shut the door on opponents, having kept their last five opponents to 21 or fewer points. One of those teams that failed to produce more than 21 points was the Dallas Cowboys' offense that averages just 17 yards a game less than the Saints. The one thing that the Panthers do when they are playing well is go to the running game, which is churning out nearly 150 yards per game at 4.74 yards per carry. The weak link to the Saints' defense is a rushing defense that is allowing 4.45 yards per carry. I look for Carolina to come out running the ball a lot to shorten the game, with the goal of having a shot in the fourth quarter. With Delhomme having the year he's having, it's really the only logical recipe for John Fox. The Saints' offense isn't quite as proficient when playing on a short week as they are 5-1 to the UNDER after playing on Monday night. This total is the highest of the week, juiced by the public's infatuation with sexy high-scoring offenses like the Saints. It's time for some reversion back to lower-scoring games for them and I like this one to go UNDER the total.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Kansas City (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-4 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars will try to make their way back to .500 when they take on the struggling Chiefs at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Jacksonville tumbled to previously winless Tennessee 30-13 last Sunday as a three-point road underdog, failing to cover for the third straight week (1-2 SU). The Jags field the NFL’s 11th-most productive offense (351.7 ypg) but are scoring just 19 ppg (22nd), while their defense is allowing 370.7 ypg (24th) and 25.3 ppg (tie 25th).
Kansas City, coming off its bye, got drilled at home by San Diego 37-7 two Sundays ago as a 5½-point ‘dog to halt a modest two-game ATS winning streak. The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, standing 27th in the league at 15 ppg, and they’re gaining just 251.6 ypg (30th), ahead of only the Browns and Raiders.
Jacksonville is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-7 while laying one point on the road in October 2007. The Jags are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Jaguars are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 overall, 3-7 against the AFC, 2-6 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback, 2-9 at home, 1-10 as a home chalk and 0-6 as a non-division home chalk. Likewise, the Chiefs – who are 1-10 SU (4-7 ATS) in their last 11 games -- are on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 2-6 after a SU loss, 1-5 after a non-cover, 2-6 as a ‘dog and 0-5 against the AFC.
The over for Jacksonville is on runs of 4-0 at home, 5-0-1 with the Jags a home favorite and 6-2-2 in November, but the under is 7-3-1 in the Jaguars’ last 11 against AFC foes and is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven road games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baltimore (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The surprising Bengals aim to keep their spot atop the AFC North when they take on the division rival Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, which had its bye last week, rebounded from a home loss to Houston by pounding Chicago 45-10 two weeks ago as a one-point home pup. Paced by Cedric Benson, who had a whopping 187 yards and a TD on 37 carries against the Bears, the Bengals have the ninth-best rushing attack, at 127.7 ypg. Cincy is allowing 341.3 ypg (21st) but only giving up 18.3 ppg (sixth).
Baltimore hammered previously unbeaten Denver 30-7 Sunday as a 4½-point home chalk to halt a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS). The Ravens have scored 30 points or more in five of their seven games this year and are currently fourth in scoring (28.4 ppg), with an offense churning out 378.7 ypg (seventh). Baltimore’s defense is also in the top half of the league, allowing 313.7 ypg (13th) and 19.6 ppg (11th).
Cincinnati stunned Baltimore four weeks ago 17-14 as a nine-point road underdog to end the Ravens’ two-game SU and ATS run in this rivalry. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two, and the favorite is on a 14-6 ATS roll in the last 20 contests.
The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 following the bye, 5-12 against the AFC and 5-12 after a pointspread win, but they also carry positive ATS trends of 7-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home pup and 16-7-1 in November. The Ravens are on ATS rolls of 20-7 overall, 10-2 laying points, 13-4 after a SU win, 9-3 on the highway and 7-3 in division play, but they’ve gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk.
Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 6-2 after a bye, 5-2 inside the division and 20-6-1 as a pup of three points or less, but the under for the Bengals is on streaks of 10-4-1 at home, 7-2 after a SU win and 6-2 against the AFC. The over for Baltimore is on stretches of 4-0 on the road, 6-1-1 in November and 11-5-1 in the AFC North, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last seven clashes in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (7-0, 5-2 ATS)
The torrid Colts look to keep their perfect season intact when they meet the Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis struggled last week against San Francisco before pulling out an 18-14 home victory, failing to cash as an overwhelming 13-point chalk. The non-cover halted a five-game ATS tear during which Indy outscored opponents by an average of 33-13. QB Peyton Manning is leading the league’s No. 1 passing attack, at 316.3 ypg, and the Colts are fourth in total offense (403.6 ypg) and tied for sixth in scoring offense (28.1 ppg). They also have the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing a meager 13 ppg.
Houston chalked up its third straight win (2-0-1 ATS) last week by ripping Buffalo 31-10 as a 3½-point road favorite to improve to 5-3 for the first time in franchise history. Since losing their season opener 24-7 at home to the Jets, the Texans have scored 21 points or more in every game and are averaging 24.8 ppg (12th). QB Matt Schaub (16 TDs, 7 INTs) leads the NFL with 2,342 passing yards, helping Houston amass 282 ypg through the air (third).
Indianapolis has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, though it failed to cover in a 33-27 home victory giving nine points last November. The Colts are 9-1 SU in the last 10 clashes, but the two teams have split the cash in those meetings.
The Colts shoulder negative ATS streaks of 4-9 at home, 3-8 as a home chalk and 2-5 against winning teams, but along with their current 5-1 ATS run, they are on pointspread rolls of 4-1 giving points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2-1 against the AFC. The Texans are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in the division and 6-2 on the road, but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six after a SU win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
In this AFC South rivalry, the total has gone high in eight straight overall and six in a row at Indy, and the over is on additional runs of 20-6 for Houston in division play and 21-7 for the Texans against winning teams. That said, the under for Houston is on upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road and 8-2 against the NFC, and the under for Indy is on surges of 4-1 against AFC foes and 11-4 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (2-5 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (4-3, 5-2 ATS)
The Falcons try to shake the first two-game losing streak of the Mike Smith era, returning home to the Georgia Dome to take on the disheveled Redskins.
Atlanta, on the road for a second straight week, lost a Monday night shootout with New Orleans 35-27, but got a late field goal to cover the number as a hefty 11-point pup. The Falcons’ big issue has been a defense that gives up 378.1 total ypg, rating 29th in the league ahead of cellar dwellers Kansas City, Tennessee and Cleveland. Offensively, Atlanta averages 339.9 ypg (17th) and 24.4 ppg (13th).
Washington got a much-needed bye last week following a 27-17 Monday night loss to Philadelphia two weeks ago as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points all year, as they are averaging a dismal 13.7 ppg (28th). The only saving grace for Jim Zorn’s troops is a defense that is yielding just 17.6 ppg (fifth) and 283.4 ypg (fourth).
These two teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team taking the cash in both games. Most recently, Atlanta won 24-14 as a one-point pup in December 2006.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 9-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 in November, 4-1 against losing teams, 9-3 at the Georgia Dome and 8-3 giving points. On the flip side, the Redskins are on pointspread purges of 4-12-2 overall, 2-6-2 after a non-cover, 1-8-2 after a SU loss, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-10-1 outside the NFC East.
The over is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven conference games and 11-3 with it coming off a SU loss, but the under for the Falcons is on runs of 18-8 in November and 11-5-1 from the favorite’s role. For Washington, the under is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 5-1 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU loss, 9-2-1 after an ATS setback and 6-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Green Bay (4-3 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-7, 1-6 ATS)
The Buccaneers, still seeking their first victory under new coach Raheem Morris, return from their bye week to take on the Packers at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay got pounded by New England 35-7 two weekends ago in London, falling well short as a healthy 15.5-point “home” underdog. The Buccaneers have scored 14 points or less in four of their last five games, and they’re averaging just 13.7 ppg (tie 28th) and 272.3 ypg (28th) for the season, while giving up 29 ppg (30th) and 376.4 ypg (28th).
Green Bay tumbled to Minnesota 38-26 Sunday night as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 3-1 SU and ATS surge that included wins and covers the previous two weeks. The Packers are averaging 372.7 ypg (ninth) and 26.7 ppg (eighth), and they have a sterling plus-12 turnover margin, tied for first in the NFL with the Eagles.
Tampa Bay topped Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in September 2008, ending a two-game ATS uptick (1-1 SU) by the Pack in this rivalry. The Bucs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts after the bye week and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-8 overall, 0-7 at home, 1-6 getting points and 1-5 against winning teams. The Packers are on ATS rolls of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 16-6-1 on the highway, 9-3 as a road chalk and 17-8 against losing teams.
In this NFC rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Tampa. The total has also stayed low in eight of the Bucs’ last 10 games versus winning teams. However, the over is on stretches of 9-4 with Tampa a home ‘dog, 22-9-1 overall for Green Bay, 11-4-1 on the road for the Packers, 17-5 with the Pack a road favorite and 44-21-2 with Green Bay facing a losing team.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Arizona (4-3 SU and ATS) at Chicago (4-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to put a stunning home loss behind them when they travel to Soldier Field for a battle with the Bears.
Arizona, coming off a 24-17 road win as a nine-point pup at the Giants, got manhandled by Carolina last Sunday in a 34-21 loss as a 10-point home chalk. QB Kurt Warner entered the game with nine TDs and six INTs on the year, but he exited with five more INTs and a lost fumble, more than offsetting his two TD passes. The Cards are now 26th in the league in turnover margin at minus-6, and they sit 18th in total ypg (328.1) and 17th in ppg (22.4), much of that due to fielding the league’s worst rushing attack (64.9 ypg).
Chicago bounced back from its 45-10 blowout loss at Cincinnati by whipping Cleveland 30-6 Sunday giving 11½ points at home, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup that followed a three-game SU and ATS win streak. Despite the addition of QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are netting just 320.3 ypg (20th) and 22.7 ppg (16th), with the defense a bit better in allowing 310 ypg (11th) and 21.4 ppg (18th).
These rivals have met just three times in the regular season this decade, with Arizona going 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU). Most recently, Chicago won 24-23 in October 2006, but Arizona cashed as a heavy 12½-point home pup.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November starts, but the ATS streaks trend upward from there, including 9-3 overall, 6-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, 6-2 against the NFC and 16-7 coming off a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS upswings of 4-1-1 at home and 5-2-1 giving points, but they are also on pointspread declines of 1-5-1 against winning teams, 7-18-2 after a SU win and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover.
The over for Arizona is on a plethora of runs, including 39-18 on the highway, 40-15 with the Cardinals a road ‘dog, 10-2 with the Cards a pup of three points or less and 18-6 against winning teams, though the under has hit in four of the last five for Arizona. The under is also 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven at Soldier Field, but with the Bears favored, the over is on runs of 23-11-1 overall, 18-6 at home and 11-1 with Chicago laying three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (3-4 SU and ATS) at New England (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The well-rested Patriots look to extend a two-game winning streak as they entertain the Dolphins in an AFC East contest at Gillette Stadium.
New England went to London as the “road team” two weeks ago and ripped winless Tampa Bay 35-7 as an overwhelming 15½-point favorite for its second straight blowout win and cover, following a 59-0 home whitewashing of then-winless Tennessee. The Pats are racking up 406 ypg (third) and 28.3 ppg (fifth), with QB Tom Brady leading the league’s second-best passing attack (291 ypg). New England is giving up just 14 ppg (third) and 285.7 ypg (sixth).
Miami bounced back from a home loss to New Orleans to beat the Jets 30-25 as a 3½-point road ‘dog Sunday, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS over the past four games. The Dolphins have scored at least 30 ppg in that four-game stretch, and RB Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense have Miami averaging 153.4 ypg rushing this year (third). The Dolphins are also scoring 25.1 ppg (11th), but they are giving up 25.3 ppg (25th).
These two teams split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing in each case. Miami sprang a 38-13 September upset as a 12½-point pup, and New England returned the favor two months later with a 48-28 rout giving one point. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 laying more than 10 points and 0-8 at home as a chalk of the same price, but they are on spread-covering sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 at Gillette, 5-2 after the bye and 25-12-1 inside the AFC East. The Dolphins are in 2-5 ATS ruts as both a ‘dog and after a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread surges of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a road pup and 7-0 getting more than 10 points on the highway.
The over for New England is on runs of 6-1 at home, 5-2 in November and 7-3 against the AFC, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Pats’ last 11 following a bye. The over for Miami is on streaks of 4-0 overall and 4-0 against winning teams, but the under is on an 8-2 run in November games and a 6-2 stretch on the road for the Dolphins. Finally, the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS)
The undefeated Saints look to keep rolling when they square off with the division rival Panthers at the Superdome.
New Orleans won a Monday night shootout with Atlanta 35-27, but fell short as an 11-point home favorite when the Falcons hit a field goal in the final minute following a Saints turnover. In fact, New Orleans has eight turnovers in its last two games (four INTs, four lost fumbles), but the Saints have overcome that with the league’s No. 1 offense in total yards (428.7 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring attack (39 ppg), nearly nine points better than the second-place Vikings (30.5 ppg). Plus, the Saints have five INT returns for TDs this year and are still plus-7 in turnover margin (fourth).
Carolina stunned defending NFC champion Arizona 34-21 Sunday as a 10-point road ‘dog, winning for the third time in the last four games (2-2 ATS). Jake Delhomme finally played a turnover-free game, after committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 5 TD passes) in the first six games, and the Panthers forced six Cardinals turnovers. However, because of Delhomme’s generosity, Carolina is still 29th in the league in turnover margin, at minus-8.
Carolina won and covered as a favorite in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 33-31 road victory as a one-point chalk to cap the regular season en route to a playoff berth. The road team is a stunning 15-2 ATS in the last 17 clashes between these two, and the Panthers are on ATS runs against the Saints of 4-1 overall and 8-0 in the Big Easy. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Despite failing to cover for the first time this season on Monday, the Saints remain on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams, 16-5 giving points, 6-1 as a home chalk, 6-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Panthers are on spread-covering slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 3-9 as a road pup, 2-6 after an ATS win and 3-7 in November.
The over dominates the landscape for both these teams. For New Orleans, the over is on tears of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3 against losing teams, 8-0 versus teams with a losing road record, 4-1 in division play and 12-3-1 with the Saints a home favorite. Carolina is on “over” runs of 5-0 in the NFC South, 7-1 on the highway, 6-1 getting points and 11-3 against NFC foes. All that said, the under has hit in seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Detroit (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Seattle (2-5 SU and ATS)
The Lions, with just one victory in their last 24 games, head to the Pacific Northwest hoping to improve against the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Last week, Detroit went off as a favorite for the first time this year, but stumbled to a 17-10 home loss to winless St. Louis giving 3½ points. The Lions are averaging just 292.6 ypg and 16.1 ppg, rating 25th in the league in both categories, while their defense is giving up 369.6 ypg (23rd) and 29.3 ppg, a scoring total that is 31st in the league, ahead of only Tennessee (30.1 ppg).
Seattle was on the wrong end of a second straight blowout Sunday, losing at Dallas 38-17 as a 10-point ‘dog following a 27-3 home loss to Arizona as a three-point chalk. The Seahawks have been held to 19 points or less five times this year, losing all five games SU and ATS, and home-field advantage hasn’t really helped, as Seattle is 2-2 SU and ATS at Qwest.
Seattle has won both meetings (1-1 ATS) this decade with Detroit, including a less-than-scintillating 9-6 road win as a six-point favorite to open the 2006 season.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but they remain on ATS dives of 2-5 overall, 1-5 against NFC opponents and 3-7 in non-division roadies. On top of that, Detroit is just 1-23 SU and 9-15 ATS dating to the second-to-last week of 2007. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have failed to cover in five of their last six games, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 11-5 laying points, 9-3 as a home chalk, 9-4 against losing teams and 10-5 as a non-division home favorite.
Detroit is on “over” streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against losing teams and 21-7 on the road. Seattle is on “under” runs of 6-1 in November, 4-1 at home and 7-3-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Tennessee (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at San Francisco (3-4, 5-1-1 ATS)
The Titans, who finally cracked the win column last week, will try to make it two in a row with a trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.
Tennessee dropped Jacksonville 30-13 as a three-point home favorite Sunday, ending an eight-game slide (1-7 ATs) dating to the last week of the 2008 regular-season for a team that went an NFL-best 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS last year before bowing out in the divisional playoff round. RB Chris Johnson went haywire with 24 carries for 228 yards and two TDs (89 and 52 yards) as the Titans rolled up 305 rushing yards.
Tennessee now sports the NFL’s second-best running attack (162.3 ypg), but it is getting outscored by two TDs per game in allowing a league-worst 30.1 ppg.
San Francisco hung with unbeaten Indianapolis last week, coming up short in an 18-14 road loss but easily cashing as a 13-point underdog. After a 3-1 SU start (4-0 ATS), the Niners have lost three in a row (1-1-1 ATS), averaging just 15 ppg during the skid, and they sit 27th in total offense this year at just 275.3 ypg.
Tennessee beat San Francisco 33-22 giving nine points at home in December 2005, the only meeting this decade between the two franchises.
The Titans are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 in roadies, but they still sport positive ATS streaks of 15-7 as a pup, 8-1 getting 3½ to 10 points, 11-4 after a SU win, 7-3 against losing teams and 4-1 in November. The 49ers are on ATS upswings of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home starts laying 3½ to 10 points.
The under is on runs of 18-7-1 for Tennessee following a SU win, 5-1 for San Francisco after a SU loss and 9-4 for the Niners in November. However, the over is on surges of 4-1 for the Titans against losing teams and 11-4 with the 49ers a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Giants hope to recover from a stunning three-game skid when they welcome the Chargers to the Meadowlands for a non-conference clash.
New York got blasted at Philadelphia on Sunday, trailing 30-7 by halftime in a 40-17 loss as a one-point favorite, losing and failing to cash for the third straight week after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start. During the skid, the Giants have allowed a whopping 37.3 ppg, while scoring just 19.3 ppg, and QB Eli Manning has seven turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble) against just three TD passes. New York still ranks fifth in total offense this year (386.9 ypg) and ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg), and its running attack is churning out 141.8 ypg (seventh).
San Diego has followed a 1-3 SU and ATS slide with a pair of SU victories (1-1 ATS), topping Oakland 24-16 last week but falling well short as a huge 16-point home chalk. Behind QB Philip Rivers, the Chargers have the NFL’s fourth-best passing attack (276.3 ypg), but they’ve been hindered all year by the league’s second-worst rushing game (74.7 ypg) and a defense susceptible to the run, giving up 132.1 ypg on the ground (27th).
In the lone meeting this decade between these teams, San Diego rolled 45-23 laying seven points at home in September 2005.
Despite their recent woes, the Giants remain on ATS tears of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 9-4-1 as a chalk and 6-2 against the AFC, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against winning teams. The Chargers are on an 18-6-3 ATS tear as an underdog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 2-6 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 3-7 on the highway and 3-10 in non-division road games.
The over is 3-1-1 in New York’s last five outings and 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven November tilts, and the over for San Diego is on several streaks, including 8-3-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 19-6-3 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
Dallas (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-2 SU and ATS)
The Eagles and Cowboys both look to keep their current surges going when they meet at Lincoln Financial Field, with first place in the NFC East on the line.
Philadelphia ripped the Giants 40-17 Sunday as a one-point home underdog for its second straight win and cover. A huge key for the Eagles this season has been their penchant for forcing turnovers, as they are tied with Green Bay for the league lead with a plus-12 margin. That’s helped them rack up 29 ppg (third) despite being a middling 15th in total offense (344.4 ypg). Philly is also allowing 296.9 ypg (10th) and 19 ppg (eighth).
Dallas drilled Seattle 38-17 as a 10-point home favorite Sunday for its third consecutive victory (2-1 ATS). The Cowboys field the NFL’s second-best offense at 411.1 ypg, including a rushing attack that nets 147.6 ypg (sixth) and a passing game averaging 263.6 ypg (seventh). Dallas is just a pinch behind Philly in scoring at 28.1 ppg (tie for sixth), and the Pokes are giving up 19.4 ppg (10th).
Philadelphia is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (3-2 SU), with the two teams splitting last year’s contests both SU and ATS. In the regular-season finale, the Eagles hammered the Cowboys 44-7 as a 2½-point home chalk to earn a playoff spot and deny Dallas a postseason berth. The underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Eagles are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 6-1 at home, 5-0 as a home chalk and 6-2 against winning teams. The Cowboys have covered in four straight November starts and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NFC contests, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 as a pup, 2-9 inside the division, 1-4 on the road and 1-4 against winning teams.
Philadelphia is on “over” tears of 7-1 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 in NFC action, 5-1 giving points and 26-11-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Dallas is on binges of 7-2 overall, 19-9-2 on the highway, 5-1 against NFC foes and 8-3 in November. Finally, the over is on a 3-0-1 uptick in the last four series meetings in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Vernon Croy
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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -9.5
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The Colts are the superior team here Sunday and I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish after getting a scare last week from the 49ers. The Texans are just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that has a winning record at home and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by more than 14 points. The Texans are also just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and the Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Colts have outscored their opponents by an average of 20.6 ppg over their last 3 games and I look for a strong performance from them Sunday after a let down against the 49ers last week. Take the Indianapolis Colts Sunday
Matt Fargo
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Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Carolina Panthers +13.5
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Carolina won for the third time in four games at Atlanta last week and the gameplan was run to perfection. The Panthers have now outgained their last four opponents and they have now outgained three of their four opponents on the road. Most important during this four-game stretch is that they have outrushed their opponents and that is extremely vital for the offense to survive and for the team to win. Carolina won both meetings last season and while the teams have changed, I don’t thin they have changed that much for such a big line swing. Last season in New Orleans, the Panthers were favored by a point and now they are getting around 13 points making it over a two-touchdown swing. That is simply too much. New Orleans is now the favorite in the NFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl and people are actually talking about the Saints going undefeated. While they have looked great and unbeatable in some spots, they will show some weakness and this could be one of those spots. They are coming off a massive Monday night game where the city went crazy and the team was as fired up as ever. Now in comes a team that is 3-4 on the season and it will be next to impossible for them to get up again. Add to that it is a short week for New Orleans and the situation becomes more difficult. Take the ball out of quarterback Jake Delhomme’s hands and it gives the Panthers an excellent chance to win. In the victory over the Cardinals, Carolina passed it only 15 times while rushing it 44 times for 270 yards (6.1 ypc). In those 15 passes, Delhomme threw a touchdown pass while not tossing an interception. After seven games, it was the first time all season that he did not throw an interception which is certainly no great accomplishment. This was the second time that Carolina limited his passes as three games ago, he threw only 17 times against Tampa Bay as the offense rushed for 267 yards on 48 carries (5.6 ypc). The Saints allowed 161 yards on 24 carries (6.7 ypc) against the Falcons so they are showing they are vulnerable against the run with Sedrick Ellis sitting on the sidelines and that is where he will be again this week. Running the ball is big for the Panthers as that is where they excel and it keeps Drew Brees and the potent Saints offensive attack off the field. The Panthers registered five sacks last week on Kurt Warner and while still a middle of the road team in sacks on the season, they can apply some pressure to Brees as he has gone down 11 times this year. That may seem great but he was sacked only 13 times all of last season so things are not as good. Carolina has been average against the run, allowing 119.5 ypg which is 20th in the league but it has improved immensely. The Panthers have allowed just 90.3 ypg on 3.8 ypc over their last three games. Carolina falls into a great situation as well. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points that are averaging 5.8 or more yppl going up against a team that is allowing between 4.9 and 5.4 yppl. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Panthers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game so they should be able to once again carry that momentum forward. They have also covered eight straight meetings in New Orleans. 3* Carolina Panthers
Tony George
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Kansas City +6.5
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Wow, The Jags favored by almost TD against anyone is quite a shock. The Jacksonville defense made Vince Young form 0-6 Tennessee last week look like a legit NFL starter at QB! The Jags have a system to where they play to the level of the team they are playing and then get beat. Not the Jack Del Rio coached Jags of previous years editions. Kansas City is no juggernaut on offense but the suspension of Larry Johnson who has managed under 3 yards a carry this season, actually is a good thing in my opinion, because Jamal Charles is better at things head coach Todd Haley wants to do on offense. He has speed and an ability to break tackles and catch out of the backfield. He also is not at odds with his teammates either, which is a huge plus for the Chiefs who are in desperate need of a win.
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Kansas City is off a bye week, and healthy. Matt Cassel at QB has had little time to impress this year throwing the ball, because he has no OL to block for him. With a weak Jags front 5, and an even weaker pass rush (last in the NFL), look for KC to be able to move the chains on offense and balance their attack. Kansas City’s only win this year was on the road against Washington with the same line as this one, and they managed that win without a TD. Look for KC to score points here and trade punches on offense and keep this one within 3 points.
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Jacksonville 23 KC 20 (an outright win by KC would not shock me)
Bob Wingerter
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Under 44.5
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Chicago’s offense is kind of a joke. They have a fear of crossing the goal line.In a matchup where neither team can be defined as a model of consistency, it's difficult to select a winner with a high dose of confidence. However, it is fairly safe to say that this game will most likely be determined by the play of the quarterbacks, since both clubs have been struggling to run the ball effectively all year long. Warner's pedigree could give the Cardinals an edge here, but last week's horrific outing can't be dismissed as simply an aberration, as the fact of the matter is the two-time league MVP hasn't been playing at the level he did during last season's memorable run to the Super Bowl. On the road, the Cardinals are averaging 27.3 scoring, and holding teams to 12.3 points scored on defense. Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games in Week 9 and Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games overall.
Scott Rickenbach
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Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -8.5
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Last week, right here in this spot, we again had a big favorite that took care of business for us as the Bears crushed the Browns by 24 points. The week before that, we used the Colts and they crushed the Rams by 36 points. There have been a lot of blowouts in NFL action this season and this one has potential to be another big favorite that wins by a margin of multiple touchdowns. Therefore, the big line here does not scare us here. The Colts only won by 4 points last week but they had over 400 yards of offense while holding the 49’ers under 300. In other words, the tight final score is certainly contributing to some additional line value here because it helping to keep this line a little lower than it should be. Indianapolis is 8-0 on the season and, although Houston is off of a big win, the Texans did trail for the first three quarters at Buffalo last week before “breaking through” in the 4th quarter for 22 unanswered points. Don’t get us wrong, it was definitely an impressive performance but the Bills really have problems right now.
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This week, the Texans go from facing one of the league’s worst to facing one of the league’s best! Houston has had a fortunate schedule as, other than the Bengals, the other opponents the Texans have faced are a combined 20-32 on the season. As for the Colts, before their “closer than it had to be” win over San Francisco last week, their last four wins had come by an average margin of 24 points per victory! Houston’s Matt Schaub has been playing well, but he and his Houston teammates simply aren’t going to be able to match scores with Peyton Manning and his Colts teammates in this one. Houston has covered four of the last five meetings between these teams. As a result, the Colts knowledge of the fact that Texans have battled them hard in recent meetings absolutely insures their proper focus and attention in this one – even with the Patriots on deck. Houston’s three losses this season have come by an average margin of 10.3 points per defeat and we expect a loss by double digits here. Another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in Indianapolis! Consider a small play on the COLTS Sunday.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
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Four weeks ago I gave out the Detroit Lions who kept it close enough to come away with an ATS victory; three weeks ago I had the Browns who put 14 on the board and snuck away with the win; two weeks ago I gave the Packers and they absolutely smashed the Browns 31-3; last week I was on the Titans who easily went on to their first victory of the season, 30-13 over Jacksonville.
This week Kansas City travels to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, and for a number of different reasons I believe that the home team has the advantage in this one: Maurice Jones Drew is a beast.
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He ran 80 yards for a TD at the end of the second quarter and added a 79 yard TD run on the first play of the second half in Jacksonville's loss to Tennessee; in total he had eight carries and finished with 177 yards.
David Garrard's ability to audible out of running plays has been taken away from him this week, and suffice to say we'll see a heavy dose of Jones Drew for the rest of the season.
Jack Del Rio will be preaching run defense all week as the Titans rushed for 305 yards, 228 by running back Chris Johnson; both were records against the Jaguars.
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Jacksonville always plays tough against Kansas City though-5-2 SU its last seven.
On the other side of the field: In seven games, the Chiefs offense has had 92 negative plays. Those are running and passing plays for minus yards, sacks, interceptions, fumbles lost and offensive penalties. When it comes to negative on offense, the Chiefs lead the league.
Pass protection has been non-existent for Matt Cassel's, and the Chiefs are getting very little out of the passing game. The team is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, and Kansas City passers have been sacked 26 times.
As the calendar turned to November, the Chiefs were the only team in the NFL without a rushing TD.
Remember, Kansas City is just 2-7 ATS its last nine overall and 1-10 SU its last 11.
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Bottom line: Look for Jacksonville to settle down this week in front of the home town crowd and improve to 4-1 ATS against conference opponents this season, as Kansas City falls to a miserable 0-4 ATS vs. conference foes.
MARC LAWRENCE
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Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Washington Redskins +9.5
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The Redskins hope a week of rest will prove to be the remedy they need to get back on the winning track when they tackle the Falcons in Atlanta Sunday afternoon. Washington, who held Philadelphia to a season-low 262 yards in its last game, is 10-1 ATS away off back-to-back home games. With the Falcons 0-9 ATS has home favorites after surrendering 35 or more points in its last game, we'll grab the points with the better defensive dog here today.
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We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.
ALEX SMART
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San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
PICK: San Diego Chargers +5
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Week 9 of the NFL takes us to the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon for a critical NFC East battle between the San Diego Chargers (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and the New York Giants (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS). Not only is this a match-up of quarterbacks involved in one of the biggest draft day deals in the history of the NFL, but both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning and a chance at their respective division titles.
The Bolts have pretty much done what has been expected of them this year. They've beaten all of the teams they should've (Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, and Oakland), but lost to all the teams that are probably just as good if not better than they are (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver). However, after knocking off the Chiefs and Raiders in back-to-back weeks, the scheduling gets a lot tougher these next three weeks. The trip to Giants Stadium is the first of three devastating games (Home vs. Philadelphia and Away vs. Denver) to come. QB Philip Rivers may have no choice but to have an MVP-type of season for his Chargers to make the playoffs. He has thrown for 2,036 yards this year to pace the league's #4 rated passing attack. It appears as though RB LaDainian Tomlinson may really be at the end of his line, as San Diego ranks 31st in the NFL, averaging just 74.7 rushing yards per game. Against teams .500 or better, the Chargers have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game.
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That's got to make QB Eli Manning feel good after three straight very questionable games leading the New York offense. After starting the year with 10 TDs against two INTs, Manning looks to be a bit skittish in the pocket since suffering the heel injury. He has thrown for just 643 yards and three TDs against six picks his L/3 starts, and he could've been intercepted a number of more times against Philly in last Sunday's 40-17 blowout defeat. New York's defense, which ranked amongst the best in the league until recently, has all of a sudden conceded 112 points over the L/3 weeks and will have to be significantly better than that to stop this three-game slide.
Though SD is 3-7 ATS their L/10 road games, it’s a $$$-making 14-6-3 ATS the L/23 times it was installed an road underdog (2-1 ATS L/3). The Giants are 0-3-1 ATS the L/4 times it played off a SU loss, and enter this game simply reeling. HC Tom Coughlin looked like a mad scientist in his weekly interviews with the press. By the look of things, he’s been up late trying to figure out what’s wrong with his team. After getting outscored 112-61 the L/3 weeks, I’m not sure the six allotted days given were enough for him to figure it out. SD’s been largely disappointing this season, but this has been the spot Norv Turner’s bunch has excelled in during his reign. Look for a game similar to the one SD partook in Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh last season. Low scoring and ugly!