BEN BURNS
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Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
PICK: Tennessee Titans +4
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We easily cashed our complimentary ticket on Tennessee last Sunday, while also going 7-2 with premium selections. Vince Young got the start instead of Kerry Collins and the team responded with a much better overall effort. Off that momentum building win, this looks like another solid spot to back the Titans.
While the Titans finally got the monkey off their back by earning their first victory, the 49'ers lost their third straight. Granted, that was at Indianapolis and they played the Colts tough - so they can't really be faulted for the loss. Still, the fact remains that they've now lost three straight. While the 49'ers have been competitive in three of the four losses, it's also worth noting that they're 0-4 SU when facing a team from outside their division, including 0-2 SU vs. non-conference opponents. Now, not only are they being asked to win, but they're even being asked to do so by more than a field goal.
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The 49'ers have some other negative stats working against them. For starters, they're now 0-11 SU in Week 5 through Week 9, the past few seasons. Even with last week's cover, they're still only 2-8-1 ATS over those 11 games. During the few seasons, they've also gone 3-8 ATS (4-7 SU) when facing a team with a losing record. Additionally, during the same stretch, they've gone a money-burning 1-8 SU and ATS when playing a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range.
Of course, with a 1-6 overall record, one could also find plenty of negative things to say about Tennessee. However, last week's victory should do wonders for "team morale" and it should be noted that Fisher's Titans have always fared very well vs. teams from the NFC. Indeed, they're 7-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in non-conference games over the past few seasons. Looking back further and we find the Titans at a highly profitable 31-14-4 their last 49 games against NFC foes. (This will be their first non-conference game this season)
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Including their cover at Pittsburgh at Week 1, the Titans are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Consider grabbing the points.
SEAN MURPHY
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Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Over 48
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From time to time you'll see the Colts simply 'go through the motions' in a game where they're expected to win big. That was the case last Sunday as they defeated the 49ers 18-14, failing to cover the lofty pointspread, and also keeping the game well below the posted total of 45 points.
I expect to see a much different story unfold this Sunday.
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We can count on the Colts to be up for this one, as its a division game against a suddenly red hot Texans team. Houston's offense has been clicking since a no-show way back in Week 1. The Texans have scored more than 20 points in each of their last seven games, and have put up more than three touchdowns in three straight contests.
The Colts saw their streak of four consecutive games scoring more than 30 points come to an end last week. This looks like an excellent spot for Peyton Manning and company to get back on track, as they've scored 30 points or more in four straight matchups with the Texans.
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In fact, this has been a high-scoring series for quite some time now. Each of their last eight matchups have produced at least 48 points, which just happens to be the posted total for this one. You would have to go all the way back to December of 2004 to find the last time these two teams didn't reach that number.
Houston was finally able to get its ground game rolling last week, picking up 186 rushing yards on 40 carries in Buffalo. This is a good spot for them to keep it going against a Colts defense that allows 4.5 yards per rush.
By contrast, the Colts should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against the Texans. Peyton Manning is averaging around 8.5 yards per pass play this season, and will face a Texans secondary that allows 6.7 yards per pass. Manning threw for nearly 600 yards and four touchdowns in two matchups with Houston last season.
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I'm fairly certain that the Colts get to 30 points in this game, so we won't need a lot out of the Texans powerful offense to get this one over the total. The fact that we're able to play this number in the 40s is a bargain. Take the over.
John Ryan
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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Green Bay set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that they will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 72-33 for 69% ATS winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 33-11 for 75% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs or pick after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% playing a team with a winning record. TB in an excellent role for a strong game noting they are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. Minnesota is simply in a poor spot coming off a terrible emotional loss to Favre and the Vikings. They were completely dominated in that game and know that they are not the BEST team in the division by leaps and bounds. Now facing a team that is winless there will be a strong tendence to assume that the game is won before it even starts. As SunTzu stated so well in the book ?The art of War?, some battles are won before they are fought. Certainly an opponent that is not focused on the business at hand is extremely vulnerable to being defeated. Take TB.
Alex Grosse
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Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play:San Francisco 49ers -4
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Despite losing 3 in a row, Mike Singletary has done a great job with this franchise. The 49ers held right in there with the Colts on the road last week and could have easily won the game outright. The same thing happened a week earlier in Houston where the 49ers battled back from a 21 point deficit. Additionally, they almost defeated Minnesota on the road but lost because of a last second 32 yard touchdown by Brett Favre. Alex Smith has done a good job running this team since he stepped in two weeks ago and has giving them the spark they needed. Although he lost last week and they lost the week before when he came in for the 2nd half they looked like a different team. San Francisco is only 3-4 but the 49ers are 5-1-1 ATS this season. Tennessee is in town off of their 1st win all season after Vince Young got the start. The Titans' defense is allowing 30.1 points per game and a whooping 394.9 total yards. I do not expect Tennessee to even compete in this game as last week was their win but the previous 6 weeks was more or less a complete disaster. The 49ers will put pressure on Vince Young and shutdown Chris Johnson. San Fran will try and make it to 4-4 this week and run all over Tennessee. The public is on the Titans but we will glady take the home favorite to win this one convincingly.
Black Widow
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1* on Cardinals/Bears OVER 44
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Look for plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday between the Bears and Cardinals at Soldier Field to get this OVER. Arizona has been at their best offensively on the road this year, while the Bears have been scoring at will at home. The Cardinals average 27.3 points/game on the road, while Chicago puts up 31.7 points/game at home. Neither team has been all that great defensively this year as both squads give up over 20 points/game. The Bears are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The OVER is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The OVER is 40-15 in Cardinals last 55 games as an underdog. Arizona is 39-18 OVER in their last 57 road games. You can see a trend developing here that when the Cardinals are a road dog, chances are it's going to result in a high-scoring affair. The OVER is 11-1 in the Bears' last 12 games overall when installed a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. The OVER is 18-6 in Bears last 24 games as a home favorite. We see no way this one stays under the number by game's end. Take the OVER 44 points here.
TEDDY COVERS
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
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Jack Del Rio was so upset with the Jaguars poor play in Tennessee last Sunday that he had his team practicing in full pads for the first time since training camp. Expect a focused Jacksonville effort against a Chiefs team that is every bit as bad as their 1-6 record would indicate.
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KC has been outyarded by a whopping two yards per play this season, right on par with the Lions and Browns as the worst statistical team in the NFL. The Chiefs numbers would be even worse if we discounted their late game scores in games that they were dominated – scoring late TD’s in blowout losses against the Eagles and Giants, for example. The Chiefs offensive line woes are not going to be solved by a bye week, nor are their deficiencies in the secondary, made worse by cluster injuries at safety.
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David Garrard was awful last week facing a relentless Titans pass rush. Facing a KC defense that has only notched nine sacks in seven games, look for Garrard to have plenty of time to find the likes of Mike Sims Walker and Tory Holt downfield. We can also expect continued success from Mo-Jo Drew; the worst kind of back for a team with cluster injuries at safety to face. Defensively, the Jags will have Rashuan Mathis returning to the lineup this week, allowing Reggie Nelson to move back to his natural position, and giving the Jags a pair of playmakers in the secondary. This is a very cheap price to lay with a motivated favorite against a true bottom feeder. 2* Take Jacksonville.
MTi Sports
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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
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The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (+10.9 ppg) as a 7+ favorite when they won and covered their last two games and the Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-11.0 ppg) when one game under 500 after playing on the road. New England is off an EASY win, and should be fresh for this one. The Pats are 11-0 ATS when they are off ANY game in which they were ahead by double-digits at the end of the first quarter, crushing the spread by an average of 17.7 ppg. Lay the points.
Tony Mathews
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Selection: Under 42
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The Kansas City Chiefs are not good team by any standard. Averaging only 15 points per game and 251.6 yards per game, Kansas City is ranked 3rd worst in offense in the NFL. There is no question as to whether the Chiefs will have difficulty putting up points in this game.
As for Jacksonville, their only talent lies with the running game, so expect the Jaguars to run the ball for the majority of the game. With that, the Jaguars know that they’ll be able to score enough to defeat the Chiefs, but overall neither team will be able to put up many points.
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Expect this to be a very low scoring game.
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Take the Kansas City Chiefs/Jacksonville Jaguars Under 42
SPORTS INSIGHTS
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
This match-up boasts the largest point-spread of the week, with the high-scoring Saints favored by two touchdowns. Surprisingly, even with heavy one-sided action on New Orleans, the NFL sports marketplace saw reverse line movement in this game. Even with about 70% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) taking the heavily-favored Saints, the line dropped from its opener of New Orleans -14.5 down to -13.5.
SportsInsights' Smart Money plays triggered on Carolina by Carib (17-6, +9.8 units) and WSEX (11-6, 4.3units). Our readers know that we like this kind of "reverse line movement" where we can follow the "sharps" -- and "bet against the Public." In addition, we like Carolina based on other factors such as:
New Orleans has a short week because they played on Monday Night Football.
Carolina is coming off a big road win against Arizona but still remains undervalued.
Carolina is a big dog in a Divisional match-up.
Although Carolina has given up some points this year, they have the NFL's top-rated defense in terms of passing yards per game.
Carolina Panthers +13.5
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
There was a general consensus among the sportsbook line managers that we spoke with this week. They said that early "sharp money" on Tennessee drove the line down from its opener of Tennessee +5.5 on Sunday -- all the way down to +4.0 by Monday (!!) -- even with a steady barrage of Public money on San Francisco.
We like this "Reverse line movement" -- as well as Tennessee coming off an emotional win over Jacksonville. SportsInsights had a Smart Money play trigger on Tenn by BetOnline (16-8, +6.9 units). You can still get +4.5 at a couple of sportsbooks most notably, 5Dimes and Bodog.
In this "What-have-you-done-for-me-lately world" -- Tennessee, with its 1-6 record this year, is making people forget that they were one of the NFL's elite teams last year (going 13-3). A fairly hefty 68% of bets are landing on a San Fran team that has been sub-.500 both last year and this year. We think that Tennessee's emotional win last week may "wake them up." Sharps seem to agree that there is good value on the Titans -- so we'll tag along with the "smart money" and "bet against the Public."
Tennessee Titans +4.5
San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants
Will the real NY Giants stand up? After a hot 5-0 start, the Giants have slumped to 5-3, with 3 straight losses -- where they looked very mediocre. San Diego, on the other hand, has won two straight games -- although we note that the wins came against the lowly Raiders and Chiefs! The recent streaks have the Giants surprisingly undervalued -- and San Diego overvalued!
The "sharps" don't seem confused about the "real Giants" -- at least in this match-up. The line opened at the Giants -3 and -3.5 at various shops. However, "steam moves" quickly moved the line all the way to -4.5 by Monday afternoon. The line has even touched -5 at many sportsbooks -- but you can still grab NY Giants -4.5 at several sportsbooks. This is a rare opportunity to grab some value on one the NFL's better teams. We think the Giants, at home, will "get well" with some "home-cooked food" and look for them to break out of their slump in a big way. Give the points.
New York Giants -4.5
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Perhaps no team in the league is a worse bet when laying points than is Jacksonville, who is an atrocious 1-10 ATS L11 as a favorite, including an 0 for 7 here at home, where they are just 2-9 ATS L11 to begin with. Kansas City is off its bye and has actually posted a nice profit over its last 19 road games, going 12-7 ATS. They are also 18-6 ATS on the road if they lost their previous game by double-digits. Take the points here.
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Play on: Kansas City
Steve Merril
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Over 45
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Baltimore started to show an interesting Over/Under pattern last season that has continued this year. At home, their defense played much better than they did on the road. And because of that, the Ravens went 6-2 to the Over on the road in 2008 with an average of 46.1 points scored. In three road games this season, the Ravens beat San Diego 31-26, lost at New England 27-21, and lost at Minnesota 33-31. All three of those games went Over the total easily, and that pushes their Over the total run to 9-2 when playing away from home. Baltimore’s offense has played well this year; averaging 28 points and 379 yards of offense per game. But in their first meeting with Cincinnati, the Ravens scored just 7 offensive points (scored a defensive TD) while gaining only 257 yards in their 17-14 loss. So today’s game is one in which their offense wants to atone for the weak offensive output against the Bengals last month. Cincinnati enters this game off their bye week, and home underdogs off a week of rest tend to put more focus on the offensive game plan. And because of that, these home dogs usually come in with something to prove and they always add a wrinkle or two to their offensive game plan which produces more points. So with the Ravens’ overrated defense allowing 26, 27, and 33 points in their road games, the Bengals’ offense should score their share of points today.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Detroit Lions +10
The Lions qualify in a solid system today that plays on certain non division road dogs if both teams come into the game off non divisional losses. The Lions lost last week as a home favorite to the Rams,while the Seahawks were pasted by the Cowboys. The Lions are 8-2 ats after scoring 10 or less and will play a competitive game here today. On Sunday I have a TRIPLE system 5 star, a 20-3 System dog of the week play,a 24-4 cutting edge totals system play that dates to the mid 1970/s and an 18-1 non divisional super system side.
Scott Spreitzer
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Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Over
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The Cardinals had to take on the top pass defense in the league last week and didn't fare too well. But they face a much more manageable pass defense this week in Chicago, and I expect big results. Larry Fitzgerald should be able to get behind the Bears' defense enough for a couple of big receptions. Chicago's cover-2 is nothing special...and it wasn't long ago when the Bengal passing game lit-up the anemic Bears' stop-unit. I expect Warner and company to do the same. Warner is hitting 74% of his passes away from home with a nice, 5-2, TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Chicago hasn't been able to generate a strong running game. Matt Forte doesn't look like he's running with the same authority as last year, but that's because of the weak run-blocking offensive line with three new starters. This means the Bears are going to have to throw the ball more than they'd normally like to. I don't believe they'll be able to keep up with the Cardinals, but they will score enough through the air to help push this one Over the total. I also would not be surprised to see a couple of forced Orton passes landing in the hands of the defense, which could set-up the Cardinal offense with relatively short yardage situations. The number came down a tad after opening at 45 1/2, but I believe the money has gone the wrong way. I'm playing the Over between the Cardinals and Bears on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Tom Freese
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Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
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San Francisco is 5-1 ATS their last 6 November games and they are 6-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 home games and they are 5-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Tennessee is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their last game and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 road games. The Titans are 1-5 ATS after gaining over 350 yards in their last game and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games overall. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO -
Carlo Campanella
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Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
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Falcons already 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season, beating solid competition in Miami (19-7), Carolina (28-20) and Chicago (24-17). Hosting this struggling Washington squad will be their easiest home foe so far, as the Redskins (2-5) have been held to 17 points or less in ALL 7 games this season! Willing to lay the large number against those type of offensive stats with a Falcons offense that's averaging 26.1 points per game in Atlanta. Falcons now on a 6-0 ATS run when allowing 21 points or less.
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7* Play On Atlanta