Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Redskins/Falcons UNDER 41
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Defense is Washington's calling card and I expect that defense to be fresh, well prepared, and ready to roll following a bye week. Offensively, Washington has been lackluster which makes for a solid Unders spot here when you consider that the Skins are even 6-0 Under since 2007 against teams allowing 375 or more yards per game. In fact, Washington is 17-5 Under in all games over the last 2 seasons, including 8-0 Under after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit here.
Mitch Wilson
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Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Green Bay Packers -9½
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After being beaten at home last week by their former QB, Brett Favre, the Green Bay Packers look to get a win on the road as they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It's been an up and down season for the Packers as they have three losses but two of those are at the hands of the Favre led Minnesota Vikings. With the Vikings having 2 losses and owing the first tie breaker, it is if the Pack had three losses in the division having them already thinking a wild card berth is the best they can hope for. Even then, a playoff birth will be hard to come by and every win is going to count. The same problems that have plagued the Pack all season followed them out of the bye week and onto the field against the Vikings as the running game has evaporated and the protection for Rodgers is just non existent. The Packer defense has been fairly decent but it's tough to carry the load in the NFL week in and week out.
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneer defense hasn't fared any better carrying the load. The Tampa offense has been so inept at just the halfway point of the season they are on their third QB, but this time it is QB of the future and firs round draft choice Josh Freeman. While apparently Freeman wasn't ready a few weeks ago, he is ready now but it's tough to believe that this isn't a move out of necessity rather than a move out of who is best equipped to run the offense. Desperate times call for desperate measure and the winless Bucs are at that point, desperation.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 in their last five games following a bye week but they are 1-5 agains the spread in their last 6 aaginst a tea with a winning record and 1-6 in theor last seven as an underdog. Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread following a non-cover and 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road favorite. Green Bay is 2-5 against the soread in their last seven in Tampa Bay.
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In the battle of the Bays Tampa Bay team that just looks lost right now. While I still feel Green Bay is one of the most over rated teams in the NFL, we are going to steer clear of Tampa Bay until they at least show us something.
Glenn Andrew
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Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Detroit Lions +10½
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The Lions have not made any significant strides from last season's 0-16 performance. Their 1 shining moment was a 19-14 win vs. a pathetic and confused Redskins squad. However, prior to the last 2 weeks, they have improved on the offensive side of the ball. It seems that everyone improves offensively against the Seahawks. Except for 2 shutouts against the Rams and Jaguars, Seattle's defense is allowing an average of over 29 points per game. This game will go way over the posted total of 42 as both teams take advantage of the others lack of defense!
Alex Grosse
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Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -4
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Despite losing 3 in a row, Mike Singletary has done a great job with this franchise. The 49ers held right in there with the Colts on the road last week and could have easily won the game outright. The same thing happened a week earlier in Houston where the 49ers battled back from a 21 point deficit. Additionally, they almost defeated Minnesota on the road but lost because of a last second 32 yard touchdown by Brett Favre. Alex Smith has done a good job running this team since he stepped in two weeks ago and has giving them the spark they needed. Although he lost last week and they lost the week before when he came in for the 2nd half they looked like a different team. San Francisco is only 3-4 but the 49ers are 5-1-1 ATS this season. Tennessee is in town off of their 1st win all season after Vince Young got the start. The Titans' defense is allowing 30.1 points per game and a whooping 394.9 total yards. I do not expect Tennessee to even compete in this game as last week was their win but the previous 6 weeks was more or less a complete disaster. The 49ers will put pressure on Vince Young and shutdown Chris Johnson. San Fran will try and make it to 4-4 this week and run all over Tennessee. The public is on the Titans but we will glady take the home favorite to win this one convincingly.
JR TIPS
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COWBOYS at EAGLES
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The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have gotten back on track and the winner on Sunday night will be alone atop the NFC East. Dallas opened this season with victories only against winless teams but after their bye week, they responded with two impressive wins, defeating Atlanta 37-21 before last Sunday's 38-17 rout of Seattle. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles had one of their best performance of the season in last Sunday's 40-17 victory over the Giants, who had been in first place. Mc Nabb went 17 of 23 for 240 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions without Brian Westbrook who is likely to return this week and Philadelphia ran for 180 yards. The Eagles concern may be their offensive who has been shuffling players in and out all season. Now they face a Dallas defense which has 17 sacks in the past 18 quarters and DeMarcus Ware has five sacks in the last three games .Tony Romo hasn't thrown an interception in a career-high three straight games while passing for eight touchdowns while winning 12 consecutive November starts. He has been helped by the discovery of Miles Austin, whose 482 receiving yards in his first three starts are the most by any player since 1970 and he's scored in each of those games with five TD receptions. DeSean Jackson is the big-play guy for Philadelphia as he has six touchdowns of 50 yards or more which is three shy of the NFL single-season record. The Eagles and Cowboys are playing on all cylinders but the Cowboys are blitzing from all over the place and this Eagles offensive line will have trouble all day against a Cowboy unit is tied for second in the league with 23 sacks and third in interceptions (14), having allowed more than 17 points only once all season. Donavan will have to make big plays all day to win because they will not be able to move the ball consistently against the Cowboys who's offense seems to get better every week with their balanced attack with the run and pass.
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TAKE DALLAS +3
EZWINNERS
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Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Green Bay Packers -9.5
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Green Bay is only 4-3 this season and their last three wins have come against teams that have a combined 3-20 record. I expect for them to beat up on another inferior foe as they battle the winless Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. The Bucs are starting rookie quarterback Josh Freeman in this game and you can be sure the Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers will throw all kinds of different defensive looks at him. The Green Bay offense should get back on track against a weak Tampa defensive unit. Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating and should have a big day. Lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
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Houston +9 at INDIANAPOLIS
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Make it three straight FREE winners I've handed my clients as Ohio State went to Penn State and not only covered but got the outright win. Today I'm on another 'dog in the Texans as they go to Indianapolis to battle the Colts.
Bad news for the Colt defense this week as they lose former defensive player of the year Bob Sanders for the rest of the season. So things just got a little easier for Houston QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson.
Houston’s offense can hang with anybody as they average 24.8 points a game and Schaub leads the NFL with 2,342 passing yards. He’s tossed 16 TDs and seven INTs this season and as long as his offensive line can give him a little time today, he’ll find some open receivers.
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We all know the Colts can score, but can they stop anybody now? This one could be a shootout and with this many points being given, I’ll take the Texans.
Indy is on ATS slides of 4-9 at home, 3-8 as a home favorite and 2-5 against winning teams. They struggled last week at home against the Niners and they struggled at home earlier this season against the Jags. Houston is better than both of those teams.
The Texans crushed Buffalo 31-10 last week and since they opened the season with a 24-7 loss to the Jets, this team has scored 21 points or more every week. Get me 21 tonight and this will be an easy cover.
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Play Houston to put up some points and make it tough on the Colts.
2♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
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Houston +8' at INDIANAPOLIS
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On the heels of Nebraska winning outright at home against Oklahoma, it's time for another underdog winner.
The writing is on the wall:
The Colts come in off a close win over San Francisco, they're undefeated and need to play well in this one to prove their undefeated mark is no farce and with Peyton Manning playing as well as he has been this season - there's nothing that can stop this team at home.
None of that matters to me today, as Indy's old friend from H-town comes into the RCA Dome on a three-game win streak, after winning in Cincinnati, topping San Francisco and serving a beat down in Buffalo.
And with the Colts suffering devastating losses to the injury bug, I don't know if they're going to be able to cover the number against a lethal combination of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.
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Schaub leads the league with 2,342 yards passing, while Johnson leads the league with 697 receiving yards.
And let's not forget about last season's wild finish, in which the Colts scored 21 points in a two-minute span late in the fourth quarter to steal the win at Houston. The Texans most certainly haven't forgotten.
I expect a shootout between Houston and Indy, more specifcally - Manning and Schaub - as this one could also come down to the wire, with the Texans challenging Indy's undefeated mark.
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Grab the points in this one.
2♦ HOUSTON TEXANS
Karl Garrett
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Washington at ATLANTA -9
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G-Man expects Atlanta's 2-game slide to become a thing of the distant past today as they entertain the discombobulated Washington Redskins.
Washington may have had off last week, but I think one week off is not going to make the 'Skins woes go away.
The Redskins have gone just 1-6 against the spread this season, and their 2-11-2 spread run their last 15 games suggests that getting 10-points or so this afternoon at the Georgia Dome will not help at all.
Atlanta has suffered back-to-back road losses at Dallas, and at New Orleans, and should warmly welcome this home date against lesser competition.
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Yes, the Falcons have defensive injuries they are battling through, but I don't think Jason Campbell will be able to expolit those Atlanta shortcomings, especially with Chris Cooley injured.
Atlanta is 3-0 both straight up, and against the spread at home this year, and have covered 9 of their last 12 in Fulton County.
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Must lay the lumber here, as the Falcons cruise.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
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Washington +9 at ATLANTA
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I’m on a 13-6 roll with NFL free picks, and I’ll add to that streak Sunday by backing the Redskins plus the points at Atlanta.
I know you can probably count on one hand the number of people in this country willing to support Washington right now. Clearly, it’s not an easy thing to do, as the Redskins are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS on the season, and they’ve yet to score more than 17 points all season. But believe it or not, this is actually a great spot to support Washington. First off, you know you’re getting tremendous line value, as the oddsmakers have to inflate the pointspread to attract Redskins money. Secondly, you’ve got the Redskins coming off a bye, which came at a perfect time for a team that needed a week off to regroup and address its various problems (90 percent of which are on the offensive side of the ball).
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As for the Falcons, they’re in a tough sandwich spot here. They’re coming off two tough road losses against playoff-caliber teams (Cowboys and Saints) and after this game, they go back on the road for two straight weeks (Panthers and Giants). I could very easily see Atlanta, which is playing on a short week after that Monday-nighter at New Orleans, struggling to “get up” for this game against the lowly Redskins. If that happens, Atlanta is going to ripe for an upset.
As it is, the Falcons really are living off or last year’s reputation. They’re just 4-4 on the season, and while they’ve won their three home games, none were huge blowouts, as they beat the Dolphins by 12 on opening day, the Panthers by 8 and the Bears by 7. Sure, they covered the spread in all three games, but they were laying 4, 6 and 4 points. Today, Atlanta is a double-digit favorite for just the second time in the Matt Ryan era. The first time was against the Rams in last year’s regular-season finale, and Atlanta barely survived 31-27 as a 14-point chalk.
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Because the Falcons get a lot of hype, you’d probably be surprised to learn that they rank in the middle of the pack in total offense (340 ypg, 17th) and near the bottom in total defense (378.1 ypg allowed, 29th). And while Washington’s offense has been dreadful, the defense ranks fourth in yards allowed (283.4) and fifth in points allowed (17.6).
Throw in the fact that Washington hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points (with three of the five defeats being by 3, 5 and 6 points) and Atlanta has just two double-digit wins, and I’m all over this inflated number in what should be a low-scoring game.
4♦ WASHINGTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
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Green Bay -10 at TAMPA BAY
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Saturday comp play winner on Oregon State outright.
Looks to us like the Tampa Bay Bucs are once again the laughingstock of the league, much like they were when the team came aboard the NFL in the mid-1970's.
The only thing that saved the Buccaneers from a loss last Sunday was the fact they had a bye.
Back to their losing ways today, as Tampa has dropped 10 in a row since last year, and the points haven't much helped either, covering just once in their 7 losses this season. The Bucs have also failed 6 straight at home.
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Green Bay can't seem to step up against the big boys of the league, but they have had no trouble whipping up against the lesser teams in the NFL, as the Packers have stomped St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland.
The Packers are 2-0 as a road favorite this season, and they are on a 17-6 overall road spread run their last 23 games away from Wisconsin.
Can't see newly named starter Josh Freeman getting too much accomplished in his first NFL start.
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Play on the Pack to destroy the Bucs.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Dominic Fazzini
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Dallas at PHILADELPHIA -3
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Dished out a winner Saturday with my complimentary selection on Kansas State, and I'm going to continue that momentum with another free winner today!
The Eagles and Cowboys are both playing well heading into tonight's NFC East showdown, but Philly has the advantage of playing in front of a crowd that is going to be especially rabid after watching their Phillies go down in the World Series.
QB Donovan McNabb has been playing well, and receiver DeSean Jackson has turned into the deep threat McNabb has desired for years. With the return of running back Brian Westbrook today, the Cowboys won't be able to just key in on McNabb, however.
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Philadelphia's defense has continued to play its blitzing style that has been so effective for it over the past decade. The Eagles are tied for second in the NFL with 23 sacks, third in interceptions with 14 and hasn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season.
The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, 4-1 ATS in their last five overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite. Dallas is 1-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records, 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS as a road 'dog and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
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Philadelphia also is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Cowboys. Take the Eagles to cover the points as a home favorite tonight.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Stephen Nover
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Houston at Indianapolis
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The past eight times the Texans and Colts have met the total has gone over. Look for that streak to reach nine straight times.
The Colts are the No. 1 passing team in the NFL behind Peyton Manning. The Texans rank No. 3 in passing yards thanks to Matt Schaub enjoying his finest season.
This is a matchup of two hot quarterbacks squaring off in perfect scoring conditions inside a dome stadium on carpet.
Neither team can run the ball very well. Steve Slaton is the best pure runner on either team, but his rushing role has been reduced due to too many fumbles.
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That's fine because this is going to be an aerial circus. Schaub is going to go after a Colts secondary missing their starting cornerbacks, Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson, plus Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders.
These injuries leave the Colts open to an explosive offense, which the Texans are with Schaub, Slaton, Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, who will see more passes his way with tight end Owen Daniels out for the season.
Manning is at his finest when he sees a challenge, which he will here. The Texans have greatly improved their run defense. They remain susceptible to the pass, however.
Aside from Kurt Warner, the Texans have not faced a good quarterback this season having seen the putrid likes of Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell and washed-up Kerry Collins. Warner lit Houston up for 26 completions, 302 yards and two touchdowns.
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Manning is having one of his greatest seasons, which really is saying a lot. The Colts have scored 33, 31, 38, 30, 24, 43, 31 and 38 points in their last eight games against the Texans. That's an average of 33.5 points per game.
The Colts and Manning are too good not to put up a similar number again in this matchup.
5♦ Houston/Indianapolis OVER
Tony Weston
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Just a stupid call with Penn State yesterday as the Buckeyes utterly destroyed the Nittany Lions. I’m not losing again today as I’m delivering with a solid NFL winner as I’m taking the Texans on the road at the Colts in a huge AFC South showdown in Indy.
While the Colts are undefeated this season, sitting at 7-0 SU and have cashed in 5 of their last 6 games, they’ve been doing so against inferior teams. Just in the last 4 weeks they’ve played the 49ers, Rams, Titans and Seahawks, none of whom have a SU record over .500 and are a combined 7-22 SU this year.
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Last week the Colts survived a scare at home against the Niners, winning 18-14 as a 13-point favorite. As if things couldn’t get worse, Indy has lost Bob Sanders and Marlon Jackson for the year - two starting defensive backs.
The Texans come into this game having destroyed the Bills last week, winning 31-10 as a 3 1/2 point favorite, upping their current SU win streak to 3 games. Houston comes into this game having gone 3-1-1 ATS its last 5 games and having gone 3-1 ATS on the road this year.
When these two played in Indy last year, the Texans covered as a 9-point underdog, losing 33-27. Today, Houston is catching about 9 points.
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Houston will be in a position to win this one outright and definitely cover on the road.
3♦ TEXANS
Steve Duemig
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Matt Schaub is the leading passer in the NFL, Yep you heard me right, not Brady or Manning or Brees, and he's got Manning going against him on the other side. Both games last year The Texans put 27 points on the Colts but failed to win either. I can't see this becoming anything but a shootout with all the injuries to the Colts defense
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1♦ Texans-Colts Over