Brian Graves
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Kansas City vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Over 41.5
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The Chiefs have been getting shredded on the ground all year and now they face one of the more dynamic runners in the NFL in Jones-Drew. He had 2 bombs for Td's last week against Tennessee and he should find more holes in this game. I actually believe the Chiefs offense may bust out a bit in this game today because the Jags defense has been one of the bigger disappointments in the NFL this season. Chris Johnson lit them up last week and with Larry Johnson suspended the Chiefs may get a jolt out of utilizing Smith and Charles more in the backfield. I still think the Jags will find a way to win but play this game over the number!
Jimmy Thompson
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Detroit vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -10
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The Seahawks have been pretty bad lately, but they have had a very tough schedule with games at Indy and Dallas and home to Arizona. They have blown out marginal to bad teams when playing them in Seattle this year and the Lions definitely qualify as one of those. Hassleback has some fun with T.J. and Burleson and the Seahawks defense looks like and NFL defense for a rare weekend as Seattle wins 34-13!
Jimmy the Moose
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Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
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The Arizona Cardinals are averaging 27.3 PPG on the road while holding the opposition to only 12.3 per contest resulting in a 3-0 SU and ATS road record. Arizona has gone into New York, Seattle and Jacksonville and easily took care of the opposition. The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Panthers and will look to get back on track in Chicago this week. Arizona is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. In their last 8 games vs. NFC opponents they are 6-2 at the window. The Cardinals are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss. In their last 6 games as a dog they are 6-0 ATS.
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Chicago is 3-0 SU and ATS at home but their home wins have come against Cleveland, Detroit and the Steelers the only tough team of the bunch. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Chicago is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bears have had trouble vs. good passing team's allowing 45 points to the Bengals and 21 to the Falcons and Packers so look for Warner to get back on track in this one.
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The Cardinals will rebound after that horrible game vs. the Panthers last week. Kurt Warner and the offense will make it difficult for the Bears D that is allowing 21.4 PPG this season. In the last 7 meetings between the clubs the Cardinals are 6-1 ATS and today they'll be the team that exits this games 5-3 SU.
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Play on the Arizona Cardinals +
DUNKEL
Miami at New England
The Dolphins look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Miami is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11)
Game 403-404: Kansas City at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.034; Jacksonville 125.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cincinnati 131.603
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under
Game 407-408: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.049; Indianapolis 146.460
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9); Over
Game 409-410: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.846; Atlanta 136.496
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-10); Under
Game 411-412: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.700; Tampa Bay 123.756
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9 1/2); Over
Game 413-414: Arizona at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.376; Chicago 133.581
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over
Game 415-416: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.151; New England 140.472
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 47
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11); Over
Game 417-418: Carolina at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.413; New Orleans 150.044
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-13 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.599; Seattle 133.403
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 18; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under
Game 421-422: Tennessee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.416; San Francisco 134.540
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Over
Game 423-424: San Diego at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.610; NY Giants 141.914
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4 1/2); Under
Game 425-426: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.059; Philadelphia 136.419
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Under
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9
Game 429-430: Pittsburgh at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.030; Denver 136.545
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over
NBA
Golden State at Sacramento
The Kings look to take advantage of a Golden State team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Sacramento is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5)
Game 501-502: Philadelphia at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 116.292; Detroit 118.858
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Under
Game 503-504: Phoenix at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.724; Washington 120.531
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 212 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix 1 1/2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Orlando at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 125.896; Oklahoma City 116.671
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9; 190 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 5 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-5 1/2); N/A
Game 507-508: Golden State at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.125; Sacramento 109.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 209 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5); Under
Game 509-510: Minnesota at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.897; Portland 128.542
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 18 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 13 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-13 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: New Orleans at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 112.452; LA Lakers 129.545
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 17; 203 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Edmonton at Colorado
The Avalanche look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 home games. Colorado is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-175)
Game 1-2: St. Louis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.423; Atlanta 10.993
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Under
Game 3-4: Edmonton at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.295; Colorado 11.891
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-175); Over
CFL
Hamilton at Winnipeg
The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games in November. Hamilton is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2)
Game 467-468: Hamilton at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.744; Winnipeg 112.241
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 1; 55
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2); Over
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arizona Cardinals +3
Bottom Line: Chicago's secondary has been suspect all season and I look for Kurt Warner and his superior cast of receivers to take advantage here. Plus, Warner will be ready to bounce back strong after his worst performance of the season last week. I believe the books have the wrong team favored here and here's why. Arizona lost the turnover battle badly last week, contributing largely to its losing margin. Meanwhile, Chicago won the turnover battle in its last game, contributing largely to its winning margin. In other words, we did not see true depictions of each team last week and it has wrongly affected the line. Plus, Chicago is on a 1-11 ATS slide after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. We'll take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +10½ over NEW ENGLAND
How about a little respect for the Dolphins, huh? Here’s a team that has played so many tough games already and in fact, has played both the Colts and Saints, the two remaining undefeated teams in the game. Incidentally, Miami badly outplayed the Colts only to lose 27-23 and they had a 24-3 lead on the Saints before a series of bizarre events changed the game around. The Fish also lost in San Diego and in Atlanta to open the year. However, they buried the Bills 38-10 and they also have two wins over the Jets and were the team that sent the New Yorkers into its current tailspin after they opened the year 4-0. Furthermore, each and every player is fully aware of the point-spread and this one will only motivate the Dolphins even more because it’s an insult and not a small one. Besides, what has New England done to deserve this billing? They opened the year with a miracle win over the Bills and followed that up with a loss to the Jets. They have wins over Baltimore and Atlanta but as it turns out those two have declined from a year ago. The win over Baltimore or Atlanta for that matter was anything but impressive. Then the Pats went into Denver and lost 20-17 and an argument can be made that was the team’s only real tough opponent thus far. New England’s last two wins came over the Titans and Bucs and thus, you’ll have to excuse me while I crap my pants over that feat. Now the Pats are coming off trip to England and a bye week and they’re not even close to being as good as advertised. When you wager on the Pats you’re playing a premium to do so because they’re highly popular and a favorite among bettors. The Dolphins should be able to run all day on this team and not only cover but possibly win outright. Great value on the under-appreciated Aquatics. Play: Miami +10½ -1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Detroit +10 over SEATTLE
10 points is a lot of lumber for a team of the Seahawks caliber to be spotting anyone. I’ve said it a million times over that it’s bad strategy to be spotting any points with bad teams and although the Lions are just 1-6 (or is that 1-85) they’re really not much worse than the Seahawks. The Lions are off a troubling home-loss to the Rams and they’ve dropped 15 in a row on the road but believe it or not, a trip is probably going to do them some good. Furthermore, Matthew Stafford was off two weeks but came back last week and that week back can only be beneficial. The Seahawks are the epitome of mediocrity. They don’t do anything well and there are more than a few unhappy players, not to mention a whole lot of dissention. Remember, this host has one more win than the Lions, a slew of ugly losses and two wins over the often lifeless Jags and the Rams. Anyway, unless it’s in college and the spread is 21 or something like that, I never bet a team that I don’t think has a chance to win and this one is no exception. Laying double-digits with this badly coached Seahawk team is unappealing, not recommended and likely a detriment to your bankroll. Play: Detroit +10 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Larry Ness
HOU +8.5 vs IND
I guess the Colts knew what they were doing when they decided a few years back to groom Jim Caldwell as their next head coach. There were plenty of skeptics (myself included), as Caldwell's only previous head coaching job had been an eight-year stint at Wake Forest (1993-2000) in which he led the Demon Deacons to a less than impressive 26-63 (.292) record. However, the Colts enter this Week 9 game with the Texans as one of just two unbeaten teams left in the NFL (7-0). Going back to the end of last year's regular season, the Colts own the NFL's longest active winning streak at 16 in a row (10-5-1 ATS). The Texans entered the NFL in 2002 and after seven full seasons, have yet to post a winning record (Houston has gone 8-8 each of the last two seasons). The Texans opened the 2009 season with a loss and would alternate losses and wins until they followed their Week 6 upset win at Cincinnati (28-17) with a Week 7 win over the 49ers and a Week 8 win over the Bills. All of a sudden, the Texans are 5-3, halfway through their 2009 schedule. Matt Schaub has stayed healthy and he's delivering on his 'promise.' He's completing 66.4 percent of his passes, has a QB rating of 100.5 and a TD-to-INT ratio of 16-7 (his 16 TD passes are already a career-high!). Andre Johnson is one of the, if not the, best WR in the league but the Texans got horrible news last week regarding TE Owen Daniels (40 receptions for 519 yards and a team-leading five TDs). It was revealed that Owens will miss the rest of the season after tearing a knee ligament last Sunday. The running game has been a mess but RB Ryan Moats will start on Sunday in place of Steve Slaton. Slaton ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie LY but has just 342 yards (3.1 YPC) and two TDs for the Texans this season. A real area of concern was that he has fumbled seven times, losing five. Moats took over against the Bills last week and ran for 126 yards on with 23 carries. He also became the first player in Texans' history to rush for three TDs in a single game. Peyton is having another spectacular season for the Colts, completing 71.1 percent for an average of 318.1 YPG (he's topped 300 yards in all but one game in '09). His ratio is 15-4 and QB rating is 109.3. The running game has been a challenge for the Colts, as Indy is gaining just 87.3 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Improving on that average against the Houston rush D is hardly a given, as the Texans have turned things around after an awful start. After allowing an average of 205.0 YPG on the ground in their first three games, the Texans are yielding just 58.2 YPG over their last five. The Colts settled for FGs on four trips into the red zone last week and Manning failed to throw a TD pass for the first time since November 30, 2008, as Indy 'escaped' with an 18-14 win over the 49ers. Indy's defense has been terrific in 2009, allowing just 292.1 YPG and an NFL-low 13.0 PPG. However, some of their best defensive players are on the sidelines for this game. LB Tyjuan Hagler (biceps), CB Marlin Jackson (knee) and SS Bob Sanders (elbow) are all out for the season. More bad news comes Indy's way with the news that veteran CB Kelvin Hayden is expected to be out for the next three to four weeks with a knee sprain, as well. I'm taking the points.
Drew Gordon
Houston at INDIANAPOLIS -9
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Texans/Colts match up.
I know, I know, Bob Sanders is out, and now everyone expects this Colts stop-unit to fold like a house of cards. I couldn't disagree more, at least in this match up, as Houston does have the personnel necessary to exploit the Colts defense. Read on...
You see, while Bob Sanders is out, his main forte was run defense. We saw this Colts run defense struggle without him last year, but their pass defense was still rock-solid. Herein lies the problem for the Texans, as they are almost exclusively a pass-based offense, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry when they run the rock. Indy's defense is still capable of slowing Schaub, especially with his favorite target, TE Owen Daniels, out for the season. Daniels pass-catching ability opened the field for Schaub, creating room for stud WR Johnson to work, but that will not be the case today.
Did you know that for his career, 1 out of every 12 passes Manning has thrown on his home field against the Texans has gone for a touchdown?! That's a staggering stat, along with his 20 TD to 2 INT ratio against Houston's defense (at home as well). Point is, Manning has made it a habit of torching this specific defense, and I see no reason for that to change in this match up. The Texans pass defense is vulnerable and it'll cost them the game this afternoon.
Bottom line, the Colts are rolling right now, going 5-1 ATS over their L6, and I just don't see how this Texans offense gets it done without an effective run game. Getting into a shootout with Manning on his home field is a recipe for disaster as far I'm concerned. And don't read too much into the 49ers cover at Indy last week, San Francisco's defense and run game are FAR superior to Houston's. In the end, Colts roll!
Take Indianapolis over Houston in this NFL match up.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Michael Cannon
Houston +9 at INDIANAPOLIS
I’m 21-11-1 with my last 33 overall free plays.
Take the points with the Texans today on the road over the Colts.
Houston is a team that’s shown a lot of improvement this year and while they may not be ready to take the division over yet, they are more than capable of staying within this number today.
Indy is a beat up team right now. We all know about their injury issues at wide receiver, but now All-Pro safety Bob Sanders is out for the year and that’s a major blow to the Colts defense. This is a defense that relies on Sanders to keep the opponents passing game in check, but he could be their most important player when it comes to stopping the run.
Without Sanders, that opens up all kinds of options for Gary Kubiak’s gameplan today.
The Colts are on negative pointspread runs of 4-9 at home, 3-8 as a home chalk and 2-5 against winning teams.
The Texans are on ATS runs of 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in divisional play and 6-2 on the road.
Take the points with Houston as they stay within the number.
4♦ HOUSTON
Carolina +13 at NEW ORLEANS
Take the points with the Panthers on the road over the Saints.
Don’t look now but Carolina may be turning this thing around. The Panthers have won three of their last four overall and Jake Delhomme actually played a turnover-free game last week.
As long as Carolina can take care of the football they are a formidable opponent for anyone.
That’s because the Panthers have such a dominating running game and they still play pretty good defense.
Carolina will need that defense and then some against the Saints today on the road but I feel like they’ll be up to the task here.
The Saints have that great offense, but Carolina matches up well with them.
The road team is on a 15-2 ATS run in the last 17 meetings between these two and the Panthers are on pointspread runs against the Saints of 4-1 overall and 8-0 on the road.
Take the points as the Panthers stay within the number.
2♦ CAROLINA
Scott Delaney
Carolina at New Orleans
Take the points with the Panthers in this one, as they keep this one close, and could possibly win outright in the Big Easy.
Is it just me, or are the Saints softening up as the schedule gets easier? Sometimes that'll happen with teams becoming complacent and when they play inferior teams - such as this one today.
The Saints are gearing up for a date with the Patriots in a few weeks - believe that! And something tells me Sean Payton is doing just enough to get his team prepped for that game, while staying injury-free along the way.
That means not a lot of vertical game once the game reaches double digits, as it could leave his wideouts open for "ooh-ahh" hits he can't afford to have.
Instead, it'll be fine-tuning the rushing game and working on ball control and time management. That's what these weeks are for ... like scrimmages ... practicing on what to do to beat a team like New England.
And one of those things is keeping the ball out of the other team's hands. That means longer possessions.
But that also means you're not putting a lot of points up.
Do I like the under ... not really. I just like the thought of New Orleans overlooking teams right now.
Take the underdog.
2♦ CAROLINA PANTHERS