Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 10,2010

RED SHEET

HOUSTON TEXANS 31 - New York Giants 17
Line opened at Houston minus 3, and is still minus 3. Giants sure turned it around with smothering effort vs the previously unbeaten Bears, holding Chicago to 3 pts, 6 FDs, & 110 yds (10 sacks). But now must take to the road, where they went down by a 38-14 count in their only previous guest shot (Indy). And, despite last week, NY is just 4-11 vs the spread of late, while the Texans are a team on a steady rise, & have already taken Manning #1, with a 34-24 win over the Colts on opening week. Foster (537 RYs, 6.3 ypr for season), Schaub & Co will be ready. RATING: HOUSTON TEXANS 88

San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 16
Line opened at San Diego minus 5, and is now minus 6. Yes, we know that the Raiders covered both '09 games with the Chargers, but that was certainly against the norm, & the fact is that SanDiego did win both games on the field. And that makes 13 consecutive SU Chargers series victories, with 12 winning margins larger than the 6-pt spot on this one. San Diego is again among the elites, behind the leadership of Rivers (15-of-20 LW), & that Charger "D" is in off a 9-sack showing. Raiders on the rise, but RB McFadden (a key) is hurting (hamstring), & can't stay with upper echelon. RATING: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 88

PLAYBOOK

5* NY Giants over HOUSTON by 11
The G-Men got off the schneid with a convincing romp over the Bears Sunday night. That’s not good news if you’re a true blue Texan at heart, considering the Giants’ sterling 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS mark in its last 30 road games, including 13-3 ATS when playing off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Eli Manning has been money in the bank as a starting quarterback in the league when taking to the road off a win, going 18-8 ATS, including 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS the last 20. Meanwhile, Houston looks to improve to 4-1 for the first time in its franchise history while laying points for the first time ever in this series. Those are two tall hurdles for a team that ranks dead last in the league in total team defense. Aside from owning a rancid 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS mark in Game Fives, Tex is 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games against teams from the rugged NFC East. Dogs with over 100 yards the better defense have always been to our liking. Houie’s 1-6-1 ATS mark as a home favorite in games in which its sports a .500 or greater mark cements it. Look out Houston, Eli’s coming.

4* ARIZONA over New Orleans by 6
Playoff revenge sets the table in this payback affair and we like the look of the setting. While both teams appear a shadow of their selves this season, it’s the Saints offense that has really regressed. Last year in its Super Bowl run, New Orleans averaged 33 PPG on 393 yards of offense per contest. This year they have yet to top 25 points in any game while mustering up 49 YPG less. And through their 0-3-1 ATS effort to date, the Saints have been +2 in TO’s. Meanwhile, the Redbirds, who have had problems of their own with an offense that has yet to ignite behind former Pro Bowl QB Derek Anderson, need only to look at last year’s 31-point playoff loss to the ‘Aints for extra motivation in today’s contest. That and Ken Whisenhunt’s remarkable 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark at home in games off a loss versus an opponent off a win should work together just fine. One word of caution: save room for dessert.

3* Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS by 1
Look what we have here. An NFL powerhouse in a nasty mood, meeting a team trying to reestablish its once-proud identity. No, we’re not talking about the Colts. We’re talking about the 3-0 Chiefs, the NFL’s only team to remain unscathed this season. The question begs whether or not the week of rest Kansas City had last week was a momentum- breaker or a time to better strategize. We remember all too well Denver’s 6-0 surprise start last year, only to be foiled thereafter by the dreaded Bye Week. We put our trusty historical database to work on this stratagem and what we found was surprising, to say the least. It seems that teams who open the season 3-0 or better have excelled with a week of rest when taking on an opponent off a loss, going 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS overall since 1980, including a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS run the last 12 years. FYI: the only team to lose in this scenario since 1998 was – you guessed it – last year’s Broncos. And, for what it’s worth, the last nine dogs to take the field off three straight up underdog wins in a row are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. These same three-straight dog winners are also 3-0 ATS when taking points from a foe that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game. Oh yeah. In case you were wondering, Peyton Manning is 8-17 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU favorite loss, including 1-7 ATS when favored by seven or more points. History lesson over. In stunning fashion, the Chiefs remain on the warpath.

CKO

10* SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia
It’s been nothing but misery so far in 2010 for the 49ers. But they seem well set to make someone else miserable this Philadelphia week. Whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb at QB, the Eagles face a cross-country trip to meet the heavy-hitting who have done enough to beat both the Saints and the Falcons, coming up short only after leaving them just enough seconds for each to nail the winning FG at the end. HC Mike Singletary’s changes seemed to work last week, as QB Alex Smith got the ball to WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, the defense collected three sacks and picked off Matt Ryan twice, and big rookie S Travis Mays led the team with 9 tackles and scored after a blocked punt. Kolb figures to be overwhelmed by Singletary’s defense, and Vick—if he plays after getting squished in a Redskin vice last week—will be advised to stay out of harm’s way. Philly has given up 15 sacks so far.

Gold Sheet Extra

ST. LOUIS
Well, why not keep riding our hot horse? The NFL Tech Plays have won three straight weeks with St. Louis and go for four in a row this week as the hot Rams travel to Detroit, where they scored their only win last season. The Lions are in what for them has been a very uncomfortable chalk role, one in which they failed in both attempts (one vs. the Rams) last season, 10 of 15 times since 2005, and 21 of 32 times the past decade.

Gold Sheet

KEY RELEASES

WASHINGTON by 8 over Green Bay
HOUSTON by 14 over N.Y. Giants
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Diego-Oakland game

Power Sweep

4* New Orleans over ARIZONA New Orleans 42 ARIZONA 17
3* Chicago over CAROLINA Chicago 27 CAROLINA 14
2* BALTIMORE over Denver BALTIMORE 21 Denver 6
2* CLEVELAND (+) over Atlanta CLEVELAND 17 (+) Atlanta 14

POINTWISE

BALTIMORE over Denver RATING: 2
TENNESSEE over Dallas RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia RATING: 4
ARIZONA over New Orleans RATING: 5
BUFFALO over Jacksonville RATING: 5

NELLY

RATING 5 NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona
RATING 4 CLEVELAND (+3) over Atlanta
RATING 3 ST. LOUIS (+3) over Detroit
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over NY Giants
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+6½) over Cincinnati

Jack Clayton

Eagles at 49ers
Pick: Eagles

This Philly offense has talent in Andy Reid’s West Coast system, with WR DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant and TE Brent Celek. Reid is a superior coach to Mike Singletary, whose team is 0-4 despite expecting to be the top team in the NFC West. Play the Eagles.

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New Orleans vs. Arizona
Pick: New Orleans -6½
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This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Saints are the superior team here Sunday afternoon. The Saints are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against the Cardinals and this Cardinals defense can not stop the Saints potent offense. The Cardinals defense has given up an average of 29.5 points per game this season and although the Saints have had trouble putting up points like they did last season. Undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall will be under center for the Cardinals offense that has only put up an average of 8.5 points per game against the only two quality opponents they have faced this season -(Falcons & Chargers). Brees and Shockey are both expected to start the game and although Bush is out for at least 6 weeks anyone can run against this Cardinals defense that is ranked worst in the NFC against the run allowing 154.8 rypg. We are getting very good line value here with the Saints against a team that has been outscored by 60 points through 4 games this season.

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1 Unit on Houston Texans -3
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Bottom Line: The Giants may have been able to rise to the occasion against the Bears last week, taking advantage of a suspect Chicago offensive line, but I don't expect them to have the same luck in Houston Sunday. Houston has one of the best offensive lines in football, which is a big reason why it boasts the second best offense in the entire NFL. The Texans can gut you with Arian Foster and their No. 1 ranked running game, or they can pick you apart with Matt Schaub and their No. 8 ranked passing attack. With as well as Houston can run the football, Schaub won't be a sitting duck the way Cutler was last week. Houston's defense certainly has room for improvement, but it will get a big boost from the return of 2009 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing Sunday. Under coach Coughlin, the Giants are 0-6 ATS versus AFC South division opponents, losing to them by an average of 10.5 points. Since the beginning of last season, the Giants are also 0-6 ATS teams scoring 24 or more points per game, losing to these teams by 14.4 points. We'll lay the points with Houston here.

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1* on Atlanta Falcons -3
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This is a very generous spread for the Atlanta Falcons, who were woken up last week after they nearly had a letdown at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Atlanta will come out much more determined and focused this week after having to come back from a 14-0 deficit to win 16-14 over the 49ers last Sunday. Atlanta has played tremendous defense this year, and their offense is far and away more explosive than Cleveland's. The Falcons are allowing just 15.0 points/game, and should have another solid outing this week against a Browns team that is scoring a mere 17.0 points/game. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Atlanta is a healthy 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Look for the Falcons to dominate for four quarters Sunday against an overmatched Cleveland squad. Take Atlanta and lay the points.

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New York Giants vs. Houston Texans
Play: New York Giants +3
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Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Champion is releasing his NFC Game of the Month Sunday between the Packers and Redskins along with FOUR VIP Chip Shot winners. Get this 'Play of the Month' a lng with Sunday's winners between the Eagles/49ers, Falcons/Browns, Jaguars/Bills and Chargers/Raiders.
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Are the New York Giants back? After that Sunday night 10 sack performance we saw last week it would appear so. New York hasn't exactly been money in the bank the last year and a half, but, they have been 22-8 against the points on the road in their last 30 contests. The Texans are the 'public's choice' and yet they rank dead last in the NFL total team defense and they are only 1-6 straight-up against the NFC East. Add that Houston is 1-6-1 ATP when a home favorite against a .500 team or better.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals +7
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It's hard to erase the public's memory when the reigning Super Bowl Champion takes the field, and the oddsmakers are always generous to their opponents. The public is lining up on the Saints like they already know the final score in this game, with well over 80% backing them at this point. The fact is that the Saints have been anything but super in 2010. They needed a last second field goal to salvage a win at home vs. 0-4 Carolina. The week before, the Saints lost to Atlanta in overtime, and won at San Francisco by a field goal. The schedule shows the Saints at 3-1, but they have not beaten anyone by more than five points, despite a combined 4-11 by their opponents. The stats show them being closer to a .500 team, vs. mostly weak opponents. Arizona is not nearly the same team they were with Kurt Warner under center and no one wants a piece of them now. Often, it's these teams that cover the number. Even without Warner, the Cards a group of professionals and when professionals get embarrassed as the Cards did last week losing 41-10, they tend to show up next time out. The Saints defense is playing poorly ranking in the 20s against both the run and the pass. The No. 23 ranking against the pass is likely to worsen with the loss of their best corner Tracy Porter to a knee injury. The Saints have also had issues running the ball and Pierre Thomas is dinged, while Chris Ivory has been fumbling way too much. Arizona has some redemption at stake here as well, as the Saints knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago, so this one wont come easy. The Saints are now just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and the Cards have been a good home dog from 3.5-10 going 5-0 ATS in their last five. They are also 10-2 ATS the past three seasons after a game in which they rushed for 50 or fewer yards and 13-4 ATS at home after three straight ATS losses. I like Arizona in this one.

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1 Unit on Houston Texans -3
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The Giants had their way with the Bears at home last week, but I don't expect them to come out smelling like roses in Week 5. Consider that New York is 0-6 ATS in its last last 6 games versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game. The Giants are losing to these teams by an average of 14.4 points. I don't think the Giants will have an answer for Houston's high-powered and balanced offense. Plus, the Texans defense gets a big boost with the return of Brian Cushing. Lay the points.

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3* on Detroit Lions -3
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Reasons the Lions cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. This is a 25-4 ATS System hitting 86.2% since 1983.
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2.) St. Louis comes into this game getting way too much respect. Detroit may be 0-4, but they've been in every game they have played. The Lions had a win taken away from them in a 16-21 loss to Chicago in Week 1 on a fluke call by the officials to take away a Calvin Johnson touchdown late. The Lions lost 32-35 to Philly and 26-28 to Green Bay, and also played Minnesota to a much closer game then the 14-28 score would indicate. All of their hard work finally pays off this week against the Rams. Bet the Lions at home.

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Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -7
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The Broncos have a surprisingly effective passing attack. Unfortunately, they have virtually no ground game averaging 55 yards rushing per game and 2.2 yards per carry. Denver is without its best running back, Knowshon Moreno.
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The Broncos won't be able to stay within the spread at Baltimore with such imbalance. The Ravens' secondary is much better than early thought, while their front seven on defense has been tremendous. The Ravens are No. 1 in total defense giving up just 247.5 yards per game.
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Only four touchdowns on offense in four games have been scored on Baltimore this season. The Broncos' youthful offensive line will get exposed being on the road against such a team, which is more intimidating when playing at M&T Bank Stadium.
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Denver's defense isn't as bad on the field as it may look on paper. But it's by no means a strong defense. The Ravens should have no problem denting it at home.
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Joe Flacco is heating up with four touchdown passes and just one interception in his last two games. Ray Rice is healthy enough to be the featured back and Anquan Boldin provides a strong receiving threat, better than Flacco has had by far. The Broncos lack a strong pass rush to disrupt the timing and rhythm of the Ravens' offense.
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The Ravens don't mess around in these type of matchups at home. They are 20-12-2 ATS as home chalk since 2003. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-6 ATS at home. They have covered 13 of the past 20 times when laying points.
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Denver has failed to cover in five of its last six games versus AFC foes.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Broncos @ Ravens
PICK: Over 38.5
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
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Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in 3 of their 4 contests to start the year; last week they upset the Titans 26-20 on the road, the total going "over" the number of 43 1/2.
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Kyle Orton has led the Broncos to the No. 1 passing offense in the league and will once again have to be explosive on the road if they have any chance of beating the Ravens.
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Dating back to last season the Broncos have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 9 overall; also in 5 of their last 6 on the road; in fact over the last two seasons Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in 12 of 18 road contests.
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On the other side of the field: Baltimore has seen the total go "over" the number in just 1 of 4 contests this season; that said, I look for Joe Flacco to come out throwing in this one as the Ravens look to keep pace with the surprising Broncos passing game.
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Interesting to note that Baltimore has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in 3 of 5 games over the last two seasons vs. AFC West division opponents.
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Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration, you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this situation.

RANDALL THE HANDLE
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BEST BETS
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Bears (3-1) @ Panthers (0-4)
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Don’t expect Jay Cutler to be batted around like a piñata like he was on Monday night when the Giants sacked him nine times, in first half, before knocking him out with a concussion. However, the Panthers will smell blood and if Cutler plays at all, one good hit could have Todd Collins under center. Collins is a 38-year old journeyman whose skills have not declined simply because they never matured. Even though Panthers will start rookie QB Jimmy Clausen, for only the second time, the neophyte pivot displayed composure against a much superior Saints squad last week. Host facing rattled Bears team, off short week and consecutive travels is the prudent play. TAKING: CAROLINA -1½
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Jaguars (2-2) @ Bills (0-4)
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Yes, the Bills appear flatter than month old cola but this is a good opportunity for them to bubble up against an unsuspecting visitor. The Jaguars might believe they are AFC South contenders after defeating Colts last weekend while sitting just a half game behind front running Texans but if so, they are delusional. Jacksonville has scored 30 points less than they’ve allowed and in its only away game thus far, were trounced by a 38-13 score. This could also be a letdown spot for them as they host a rare Monday nighter against Titans next week. The Bills have played a tough schedule, until now. TAKING: BUFFALO -1
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Chiefs (3-0) @ Colts (2-2)
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The 3-0 Chiefs take on the 2-2 Colts. That’s funny. However, people in Indianapolis aren’t laughing. Indy is perceived as an elite team but that perception may not be reality. The Colts had hoped to bolster their running game this off-season but find themselves placed 29th in that department currently. While Peyton Manning remains a stud, he still requires help and with cluster injuries at receiver, opposing defences plan accordingly. Kansas City’s 3-0 mark might be discounted by many but a solid defence and good running game cannot be overlooked, especially in this price range. TAKING: KANSAS CITY +8
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THE REST
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Broncos (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)
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Yours truly could have likely knocked out Joe Frazier shortly after a battle with Muhammad Ali. The same applies here as Ravens leave it all on the field against rugged Steelers and the results are obvious with Baltimore having covered just one in past five after grappling with Pittsburgh. Broncos continue to be feisty. TAKING: DENVER +7
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Falcons (3-1) @ Browns (1-3)
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Falcons living a charmed life recently with fortunate OT win over Saints followed by 49ers bizarre fumble that enabled a victory. Point being, other than hosting Cardinals, Atlanta playing tight games and this one should comply. Browns running game can’t be ignored, especially against smallish defensive unit. TAKING: CLEVELAND +3
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Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bengals (2-2)
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Bengals easily diverted from task at hand as evidenced by their three home covers in past 13 attempts at Paul Brown Stadium. Buccaneers focus on running game during bye week and commitment to it keeps this game conservative and close. TAKING: TAMPA BAY +6 ½
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Packers (3-1) at Redskins (2-2)
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Neither side currently exuding a warm and fuzzy but will side with potentially dangerous visitor that can inflict similar damage through the air that Houston and, of all teams, St. Louis applied. ‘Skins have just four covers in past 16 home contests while Packers have been quite lucrative when traveling. TAKING: GREEN BAY –2½
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Giants (2-2) at Texans (3-1)
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Giants continue to stumble and bumble through schedule, making expectations difficult. However, with the Texans giving up a league-high 337 yards per game through the air, spotting points against a New York’s capable passing attack seems foolish. TAKING: NY GIANTS +3
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Saints (3-1) at Cardinals (2-2)
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Mercifully, we may have seen the last of Derek Anderson. The Cardinals have opted to go with undrafted Max Hall at QB this week. Nothing like drawing first start against Super Bowl champs. Still, Saints banged up and effects are showing with unusually narrow home wins. TAKING: ARIZONA +6½
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Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)
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Raiders aren’t winning much but continue to take opponents to final gun. Trend could continue here as spotting prohibitive road points within division has proven costly this season. Oakland’s 3rd ranked passing defence talented enough to slow down heady Chargers offence. TAKING: OAKLAND +6
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Titans (2-2) at Cowboys (1-2)
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Despite slow start, Dallas can be right back in thick of things with a win here. The Titans are proving to be a one-dimensional team as offense rides on shoulders of RB Chris Johnson. Cowboys savvy enough to stack the box and let Vince Young try to throw for victory. Good luck with that. TAKING: DALLAS –6½
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Eagles (2-2) @ 49ers (0-4)
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The NFC West is so weak that the 0-4 Niners still have a decent shot to take this division title. If that is to occur, it has to start here. With an Eagles team whose inefficiencies were clearly displayed in loss to Redskins last week, we anticipate San Francisco getting off the schneid in a convincing fashion. TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO –3½
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Vikings (1-2) @ Jets (3-1)
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Good teams in desperation mode, while taking points, are usually a sound investment Minnesota’s defence competent enough to keep this one in check while the surprising acquisition of WR Randy Moss might be the offensive spark that lackluster offence needed. TAKING: MINNESOTA +4

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BUFFALO –1 over Jacksonville
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Jags stock went way up this week after its win over the Colts and that sets this one up very nicely. The Bills are winless and they’re regarded as one of the dregs of this league. That may be so but a close look also reveals that the Bills have played four tough opponents and one could argue its schedule thus far has been the toughest in the business. The Bills four opponents have been Miami, Green Bay, New England and the Jets. Incidentally, they were right in every game with the exception of its last against the Jets and in the game at Green Bay they were in it in the first half. That’s a very difficult quartet but this is not. That’s not to say the Bills are a good team because clearly they’re not. But they’re also not as bad as everyone thinks and the Jags are not much better than the Bills, if at all. They were thrashed on the road in both games, in Philly 28-3 and at San Diego 38-13. Even in its win last week, David Garrard only threw for 165 yards. The Jags running game was working and that’s why they won. Its defense is horrible, its offense is poor and they’re in an extremely unfavorable spot here. Not only are the Jags coming off a win over Indy but they have the Titans on deck in a rare Monday Night appearance next week. That game will have their attention a lot more than this game and when a bad team is ripe to get beat, they usually do. Play: Buffalo –1 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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CAROLINA –1½ over Chicago
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Well, we had this game on our radar before Jay Cutler was scratched and his absence sure doesn’t change things. The Bears were exposed last week against the Giants and it wasn’t an aberration. This Bears squad is a total fraud despite its 3-1 record and two nice wins over Dallas and Green Bay. Everything went right for them in those two wins but in terms of skilled players, the Bears might have fewer than anyone. Its offensive line is a complete dumpster-fire and Todd Collins virtually has no chance at success here. Collins is a 38-year old journeyman whose skills have not declined simply because they never matured. The Bears will pay the price this week of not having adequate backup. As for the Panthers, they’re 0-4 but they’re on the verge of a win. This is not an 0-4 team. In week one they badly outplayed the Giants but lost 31-18 after throwing three picks in the Giants end zone. In New Orleans last week they probably should have won that game too but found a way to lose it in the final seconds 16-14. The Panthers defense is very underrated, its offense is getting better and in no way are they the inferior team here. The Panthers have to avoid turnovers. They’ve turned it over 13 times already and it’s for that reason they’re 0-4. If they don’t turn it over they’ll beat this intruder and they’ll probably beat them badly. There’s no crystal ball in the world that can predict turnovers. You can rest assured however, that if the turnovers in this one are even or close, the Panthers will expose these frauds in much the same fashion the Giants did. Play: Carolina –1½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
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ST. LOUIS +1.36 over Detroit
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Saying that these three games are not this week’s marquee matchups would be an understatement but you know what…they all pay the same. The Lions come in 0-4 and they’ve been damn close to winning and many feel this is the week they break through, especially after giving the Pack all they could handle last week. The Lions also came close to beating the Eagles, they beat the Bears even though it didn’t register as a win and they also played nose-to-nose with the Vikes for the most part. That’s nice, it really is but we’re not buying it. Shaun Hill is about as average as they come. Those other teams may have taken the Lions lightly and almost paid for it. Fact is, the Lions give up a ton of yards and they’ve given up a ton to at least three teams, the Bears, Eagles and Vikes, that all have shown nothing offensively. The Lions rank 25th and 26th respectively in passing yards against and rushing yards against and that’s a huge problem. So yeah, they’ve been close but they’ve been fortunate close. The Rams on the other hand were close in two games and won the other two. Conceivably, the Rams could be 4-0 after two losses by a combined six points. Sure, they haven’t been battle tested and wins over the Redskins and Seachickens does not give them a whole lot of credibility but the Rams are gaining steam and Sam Bradford really is the real deal. In four games, the Rams have not allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points in any game. You can see the confidence in them getting stronger each game and you should never underestimate a young, talented team that starts winning. The Rams defense is vastly superior than the Lions, its QB is vastly superior than the Lions QB and so are both the offensive and defensive lines. Now we have a team with momentum and surely they can smell another victory here. No letdown spot here as some may suggest. The Rams haven’t been in a letdown spot for five years and now the whole attitude is different and they’re pumped right up for a legit shot at the playoffs. Rams outright. Play: St. Louis +1.36 (Risking 2 units).

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Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay
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This game remains one of the heaviest-bet games of the week -- and also one of the most lopsided-bet games. Five out of every six bets -- or 85% -- of the bets are taking the visiting Green Bay Packers. This is a good game to "bet against the Public" and grab some good line value. The line opened with Green Bay as a very slight favorite of GB -1. However, the constant pounding of bets down on the Packers has moved the line to GB -2.5, with some of our favorite books at GB -3. This is huge line value at the "key number of 3."
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In addition to line value and betting against the public, this match-up takes advantage of current media and public perceptions. Sports fans view Green Bay as one of the NFL's elite teams and the Redskins as mediocre, at best. In the NFL, home field advantage and point spreads are a great equalizer.
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Washington Redskins +3
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Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
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Our offshore contact circled this game because early sharp money reversed the line. CRIS opened this game at Bucs +7, but early sharp action on the Bucs moved the line to Bucs +6.5. Our readers know that we like to follow the coattails of the smart, sharp, money. SportsInsights Smart Money analysis also triggered plays on Tampa Bay (Phoenix 15-7). You may want to act soon and grab Tampa Bay +7 while it's still around.
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Both the Bucs and Bengals started their seasons 2-0, before falling to 2-1. The Bucs were demolished 38-13 by the Steelers two weeks ago, and last week had a bye, giving them time to lick their wounds and prepare for this week's game. The Bengals lost a close game last week, at Cleveland. We'll "buy" the Tampa Bay Bucs after their bad loss two weeks ago to bounce back against the high-flying Cincy offense led by Carson Palmer. We note that the Bucs currently have a solid pass defense -- 10th best in the league.
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Tampa Bay Bucs +7
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Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
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The Arizona Cardinals still don't get any respect -- and this is particularly true with their mediocre 2-2 start to the 2010 season, getting outscored 58-118. Based on the betting action, it appears that public bettors are continuing to ride the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints' bandwagon. This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with almost 90% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) taking the Super Bowl Champs.
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Although the Saints are 3-1, their largest margin of victory is just 5 points in Week 1, a 14-9 victory over Minn. The Saints also beat San Francisco by 3 points (Week 2) and beat Carolina by 2 points last week. In summary, The Saints' 3-1 record isn't as good as it looks. Recall that Arizona won their division last year with a 10-6 record. The Cardinals, as a 7-point home underdog, look like a good value.
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The line opened at Arizona +6.5 but has edged up to Arizona +7 -- because the public is taking the Saints on almost every bet. Grab the line value on the "key-seven" number and the home dog.
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Arizona Cardinals +7